The Morning After: Championship Weekend

We are down to just 1 game and the unlikeliest of match ups, indeed, as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have both won on the road on Championship Weekend to march all of the way to Super Bowl 47 in New Orleans in 13 days.

This is a very unlikely scenario that Cowboys fans remember well.  For it was on Championship weekend 1992 when the young and inexperienced Cowboys went to Candlestick Park and got the ticket to Pasadena on the same day that Buffalo won big in Miami to meet them at Super Bowl 27.

Super Bowl 32 was the only other time since the merger it has happened, with Green Bay winning at Candlestick against the 49ers and Denver winning at Pittsburgh that same afternoon and the two teams battled 2 weeks later in San Diego for John Elway's date with destiny.

It generally seems to pay well to play championship games at home, but Atlanta and New England's days ended in tears yesterday, and for just the third time ever, the two road teams advance to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta's fate seems extra cruel, as they are being asked to take the extra long and difficult, but traditional route of taking a small step each and every year.  They finally won a playoff game last week after several years of disappointment, but when they were tossing San Francisco all over the field yesterday in the early going, it was just setting them up for another monumental collapse as a 17-0 lead vanished in rather quick fashion.

Then, their last attempt appeared to be just a feeble and hopeful toss to the first down marker and the Matt Ryan pass to Roddy White fell to the ground and the dream was dashed yet again.  A run that began in 2008 with the hiring of Mike Smith and the drafting of Matt Ryan will have to wait another year.  They have a record of 56-24 in regular season games in the last 5 seasons, but still feel like they are on the outside trying to figure out how to get in.

Back to the drawing board for the Falcons, who have to feel like they are so close and yet so far away.

The 49ers advance feeling as if this Colin Kaepernick dream run just won't stop.  And maybe it won't.  He didn't have to run almost at all, unlike last week against Green Bay, and simply let Vernon Davis and Frank Gore compliment a strong 2nd half performance from that strong defense to be the difference.  Really, statistically speaking, it is difficult to figure out exactly how the Falcons let this one get away.

Meanwhile, the other game is not nearly as difficult to figure.  One QB has a rating of 106 and the other sits at 62.  There are plenty of things that go into the QB rating that may or may not reflect completely on the QB - a dropped pass here and there - but in the end, when one QB out-produces the other like that, it is not hard to see how the game is a resounding victory.  But, Joe Flacco beating down Tom Brady like that?  Wow.

Actually, it is a great reminder of just how difficult it is to win a ring in this league.  We lose so much sight of that reality, but I try to say it all of the time.  Every season, 31 teams finish the year disappointed.  31 of 32.  That means, your odds of winning a trophy ever are very, very remote.  The odds of winning 4 in one career?  Almost impossible.

This should help us appreciate the career of Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw a bit more.  Bart Starr won 5 championships before most of us were ever alive.  Otto Graham before him did very well, but in our lifetimes, the ability to win a handful of rings is as remote as it has ever been.  More teams, larger playoffs, more parity, and there you have a guy like Brady trying to push away from Troy Aikman and win his 4th.

But, that is way easier in magazine predictions than it is in reality.  Way, way easier.

Brady has been trying to get his 4th ring with Bill Belichick since they won #3 by beating Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb, and the Philadelphia Eagles in Jacksonville after the 2004 season.  If you feel like 2004 was a lifetime ago, well, it was.  Duante Culpepper passed for the most yards, Shaun Alexander was the leading rusher, and Muhsin Muhammad was the league's leading receiver.  Heck, Ben Roethlisberger was rookie of the year and Eli Manning was just finishing season #1, too.

And ever since that day, Brady/Belichick have been trying to win another one.  And every day since then, they have been the "team to beat".

2,907 days as of today.  And counting.

Just to put that in perspective, Troy Aikman and the Cowboys won Super Bowl 30 in Tempe Arizona on January 28, 1996.  Then, Aikman retired when Lavar Arrington smashed him into the Texas Stadium turf late in the 2000 season.  That was a span of 1,779 days from the time Aikman started to achieve his 4th ring until he retired.  And Brady passed that mark a long, long time ago.

Now, in fairness to Brady, he is a David Tyree miracle and a Wes Welker drop from having 5 rings.  But, then again, he is a Tuck rule from having 2, so, I am not sure we can start playing the "ifs and buts" game when it comes to rings.

The point is that it is amazingly difficult to win a Super Bowl (or any championship in any major sport).  As fans, we marginalize the difficulty and blame a particular player in a team sport.  I am not here to remind people that football is so much more than a QB, but since we all accept that the best starting QBs earn a million dollars for each game they start, it is a losing battle anyway.

Winning one Super Bowl is next to impossible for NFL QBs.  So much has to happen correctly and fall into place.

 I remember thinking that Brett Favre had several more in him when he won his Super Bowl at age 27. He was winning the MVP at age 26, 27, and 28, and surely he would break through for another ring.  It never happened.

John Elway was a rookie at age 23 in 1983.  He waited until he was 37 and 38 to finally win his.  Most people were sure it would never happen for him.

Peyton Manning entered the league at 23 and worked until he was 30 before he won a ring in 2006.  I remember the post game talking heads said that now that he broke through, he could go on a run and win a bunch more.  He still searches for ring #2 and will turn 37 in 2 months.

I am always interested in this search Brady is on - partly because odds are really good that we will keep picking the Patriots until he retires, but that they will never win another Super Bowl with him.  Why is that?  Because it is really, really hard to win a Super Bowl!  Even if you are one of the best teams in the league every year.  He won in his 24, 26, and 27 year old seasons.  But, he will turn 36 in August.

Aikman won his 3 at 26, 27, and 29.  Elway is the exception, not the rule.

The point is, I cannot tell you how maddening it is to hear the nonsense about how "surely Aaron Rodgers" will win 2 or 3 more.  Or, it is a matter of time for Drew Brees or anyone.

It is next to impossible to win a ring.  But, as fans, the second they win one, we want to start the clock on their next one.  And from there, get out our charts to see where they rank with the legends.  It is fun to say, Manning or Favre "only won one time", when in reality, does anyone know how insanely difficult "only winning one" really is?

Would we say, "he only climbed Mount Everest once?"

So, here is Brady.  With ONLY 3.  We wonder if he will ever find that elusive 4th.  Then, we ask if Matt Ryan is just "another Tony Romo?" - whatever that means.

In 13 days, another QB will win his 1st title.  This will be the first Super Bowl without a Manning, Brady, or Roethlisberger since Rich Gannon and the Raiders took on Brad Johnson and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the game to end all games.

And then, we will debate where Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick belong in our historical frame of reference as if they have figured out how to do something that Dan Marino never could.  We do all of this because it is the easiest way to explain football to each-other.

We measure greatness by counting the rings.  Even if it is so much more complicated than that.

And we never learn how truly difficult it is to win the big one.

Even for Brady and Aikman.  As easy as they made it look, they would tell you it was next to impossible to do it

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The Morning After: NFL Divisional Round

It is becoming more difficult to deny the existence of a spectacular "sea change" in the NFL in 2012.

It is happening.  The NFL is having a revolution.  And the revolution is being televised for all of us to see.

Tactics in football can often fly under the radar as millions watch every game.  When a team shifts its defensive line from a 4-3 over front to a 4-3 under, nobody notes it or knows what it means.

But, when Colin Kaepernick is running down the field for a 56-yard touchdown run in the playoffs, it is a play of fantastic substance that is swinging the balance of power in the NFL.

He ran for 181 yards and passed for 263 more as the 49ers demolished Green Bay in front of the eyes of the football world.  This, in a game in which he was the biggest question mark and one which started with Kaepernick throwing an interception for a Touchdown the other way.

He was fantastic and despite his lack of experience, or even more damning, "big game experience", it was surely a game in which he wasn't ready.  But, then he went and did that.  He ran for more yards than any QB ever did in any game in the National Football League.  And here is an even more stunning number:  He ran for 3 yards after contact.

That means, according to ESPN, he ran for 178 yards without contact.  Please, allow a moment for that to sink in.

He ran for 178 yards without being touched.

And this is the revolution of the NFL game happening right before our eyes.

99 of his yards were on the zone-read option, a play we are all becoming quite familiar with.  It features a posture out of the shotgun that allows for an inside run to a RB or an outside counter by the QB that is primarily based on the movement of the unblocked edge rusher.  If he crashes inside to get the runner, the QB keeps and has the ability to turn the corner on the unblocked man.  If he stays high to keep the corner closed off, then they take the inside run without support from the crash.  It is a multiple choice question in which the defense can hardly ever guess correctly.  It is simple, but the NFL has not gone down this road much in the past because of conventional wisdom.

Ah, conventional wisdom.  No type of wisdom slows down evolution in sports quite like the good ol "way we have always done things".  And, of course, in the NFL, that has told us that you should never run your QB.  He will get killed.  The defenders are too big and fast and strong.  You can run that all you want, but don't come to us when he is getting carried off the field.

But, what if RBs get hurt all of the time?  Is that reckless to run them down the field with the ball in their hands, looking for yardage wherever they can find it?  No.  That is the risk of playing RB.  So, why is QB different?  Usually, because in our head, RBs are built to withstand punishment.  Also, they have the uncanny ability to not take direct hits very often.  The best way to survive the vicious NFL hit is to avoid it, right?

Well, what if we could find a QB who has those same traits?  What if he was fast as a running back - or faster?  Kaepernick ran a 4.53 at the combine, which would put him right there with with some of the faster running backs - Shane Vareen (formerly of California, now of New England) is sold to us as a speedster and ran a 4.50.  Well, Kaepernick is a fraction of a second behind him.  But, a slight fraction at that.

Now, what if the scheme was built around this truth?  What if the coaches really bought in?  And what if it was happening all over the league at the same time?  What if football was changing before your eyes in a way that made you recalculate your thoughts about a sport where Pro-Style I formation is all you hold dear?

What if Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin, Cam Newton, and Kaepernick were all here at the same time?  And what if Geno Smith and Johnny Manziel appear to be next in line?  Are you buying in that this is the new direction of the league or the next passing fad that will disappear soon?

Let's be clear - we have seen fads.  We know the Wildcat rocked the NFL's world for about 1 season.  We also know that one reason this works is because it defies convention and that nobody deals with it at the NFL level.  But, if it hauls off and makes it to the Super Bowl, it will not be quirky anymore - it will be mainstream.  As Smart Football wrote about last month, this is all mostly from the lineage of the air-raid offense, and now that the entire Big 12 is running it (it seems), it will truly be tested if people see it every week.

I confess, despite the fact that my team (part-owner) was getting steam-rolled on Saturday night, I do love the evolution of the NFL game.  The moneyball question in our sport is simple:  Since it appears that teams that have Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees have a decided advantage over teams that don't, how can the rest of the league compete against truly elite QB play?  If it takes 31 points to send those teams home from the playoffs, how can we get 35 from less-than-elite QBs?

The answer might be to find an offensive scheme where our QB can be elite by entering feet into the equation and not simply the arm.  And then find that QB.

There were many QBs before this point that got us to Cam Newton.  How Michael Vick and Tim Tebow (so far) and Vince Young never reached these heights might be a discussion about arm strength,  arm accuracy, football IQ, dedication to the sport, or the fact that they never found the right scheme.  Or, we might consider the fact that 1-year ago yesterday, Tebow was still in the playoffs, QB for the Denver Broncos and pulling off a playoff win with a scheme that was not that far from what we saw on fields this year.

But, his organization and their leader, John Elway, didn't seem to believe in the experiment - especially if Peyton Manning was available.  And who can blame him?

But, Kaepernick is not a "running QB".  He is a very strong passer with accuracy that seems to be strong to quite strong, and the ability to get the ball down the field.  Griffin-like, if you will.  And, he is one of only 4 QBs in the history of college football to run for 20 Touchdowns and pass for 20 Touchdowns in the same season.  The others?  Tebow, Newton, and Manziel.  He was finding Michael Crabtree and friends with great ease at times on Saturday, and all Green Bay could do was shake their heads and go home.

Not all of these QBs are going to ever run for 181 yards in a playoff game.  Geno Smith hardly likes to run at all.  But, he runs that globetrotter ball fake-routine that would make Mike Leach proud, and then make you pay with throws to all angles of the field.  And, he will go in the Top 10 this year (some say #1, but we are 100 days from the draft).

Many are telling us that this won't last because they will get hurt.  You don't want your QB taking hits like that, right?  And yes, there are shades of grey here.  Some QBs are going to learn the hard way that contact comes with a toll.  But, what if a team so believed in the scheme that the 2nd and 3rd string guys also are run/pass hybrid QBs?  Could it work?

Of course, you will always take Andrew Luck if you have a chance.  He is a tremendous athlete, but I would be pretty shocked to see Luck on a zone-read option where he is galloping down the field like Kaepernick or even Russell Wilson - another guy that prefers to beat you with his arm.  But, this might come back to the original question:  If you don't have Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees and yet you are playing for the same trophy, do you try to beat them at their own game with Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, or even Matt Schaub?  Or do you try to change your entire thinking about the NFL game, look to Dana Holgorsen and Kliff Kingsbury for inspiration, and match scheme with player in a way where the league is not sure whether to mock you or copy you?

Which leads us to other tentacles of this discussion:  Looking at how Dom Capers was embarrassed by this scheme on Saturday night, do we ask if decorated defensive minds in the NFL are able to adjust to this?  He won a Super Bowl 2 years ago, so he clearly knows what he is doing, but he almost surrendered 600 yards to what appears to be a relatively typical version of this dynamic offense.  It makes you wonder if Monte Kiffin is prepared to deal with the division going through the zone read in Washington.  The Tampa 2 is to slow down the West Coast offense and the greatest show on turf over in St Louis.  How many times did Tampa have to deal with what we are seeing in 2012?

I am not sure anyone knows where this is headed.  And it would have to win a trophy or two before anyone allows it better footing in the annals of football history than the run-and-shoot or the wildcat.  People will always prefer the idea of allowing a QB to drop back in the pocket and throw for 360 and run for nothing, because that is how we all were raised on our NFL football.

But, changes happen.  Bright minds see a problem and rather than running into the walls of failure repeatedly, they try to get creative and figure out a new way around the wall.

And maybe, in 2012, in places like San Francisco, Washington, and Seattle, we are seeing where this league could be heading.

Meanwhile, who knows how many NFL GMs are sifting through the college ranks and wondering who could be the next guy to build this around?

I am not sure Manziel could have picked a better year to do what he just did in the college ranks.  The question no longer seems to be whether he can play in the NFL.  The question seems to be, "how quickly can you get here?"

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The Morning After - Wildcard Weekend 2012

Every Monday of the playoffs, we will spend a few moments on the events of the weekend - sometimes from a Dallas Cowboys perspective - as we size up what the teams in the post-season are telling us about how to get there and to find success in January and ultimately, the first weekend of February.

This weekend, from a prediction standpoint, was actually a wildcard weekend that went exactly as I expected.  I had the Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks advancing, but surely, some of the details were difficult to anticipate and it all sets up a fantastic divisional round that offers some heavyweight battles that should make next weekend memorable.

In particular, the final game of yesterday was clearly the best game of the four.  Washington hosted Seattle in a tight matchup that offered talking points on both sides.

For Seattle, it seemed to demonstrate that although conventional wisdom indicates that they are a team that relies on their home stadium for their success (a premise that although ridiculous is difficult to completely eliminate based on performance) is a nasty, physically-tough team that is ready for a street fight anywhere.

How Seattle managed to sneak under the radar of the NFL these last few years is partly because they do not seem to care what anyone else thinks when it comes to personnel.  And, if you follow the NFL for a while, you see that the teams that color within the lines get preferential treatment, while those that do their own work and ignore what the outside says are on their own.

And when I say that, I am talking about the way they have acquired players since Pete Carroll was brought in 36 months ago (and since Carroll named his own GM, John Schneider - a Ted Thompson disciple from Green Bay.  If you love the draft, it is rather easy to name the team that has produced the most dismay on draft day from the draft-experts in the studios for the networks.  Seattle has constantly been the team that has not used Kiper, McShay, Mayock, or anyone else to cross-check their draft pick homework.

In 2010, you may recall all of the discussion about Seattle taking Earl Thomas over Taylor Mays, including Mays himself blaming his college coach at USC for sabotaging his draft stock.  Instead, Carroll took Thomas from Texas and pretty much knocked that pick out of the park and has an elite safety now who plays center field as well as pretty much anyone.  Meanwhile, Mays, has had a hard time making it onto the field as a pro.

That 2010 draft brought Seattle Thomas - Free Safety, Russell Okung - Starting LT, Kam Chancellor (with pick #133!) - Strong Safety, Golden Tate - slot receiver, and Anthony McCoy - 2nd tight end.

Then, the next year, the 2011 draft did more of the same.  They were laughed at for taking James Carpenter from Alabama in the 1st Round - because the experts did not have a 1st round grade on him. Carpenter is still a project and has spent most of his 2 years hurt as he blew out his ACL in 2011 and remains a question.  But, the 2011 draft also gave them John Moffitt, their starting Right Guard for most of the season, KJ Wright - Startling OLB, Kris Durham, and Richard Sherman (Pick 154!) who might be one of the fiercest cornerbacks in the game right now.

So, that is 8 starters from yesterday in just the 2010 and 2011 draft.

But, then comes 2012.  Could they do it again?

In the 1st Round they took a pass rusher in Bruce Irvin who nobody thought was worth the gamble that high due to many off-field and on-field question marks.  The ridicule after this pick also cited the Carpenter pick and the discussion on TV was that Seattle is reckless in their draft room.  But, they trusted their homework and took Irvin who has returned their faith with a bunch of sacks - more than any other rookie.  Then, in the 2nd round, they took Bobby Wagner from Utah State to patrol the middle.  In the 3rd Round, it was an undersized QB in Russell Wilson from Wisconsin who surely wouldn't start for them all season, right?  Wrong again, know-it-alls.

There are other players from the 2012 draft that are helping, too, as rookies, but maybe my favorite story is their 7th round pick, a guy named JR Sweezy.  He played DT at NC State one year ago, and the Seahawks drafted him in the 7th round because they wanted to convert him to a guard.

And you know who started at RG for them yesterday?  That's right - their 7th round Defensive Tackle. Meanwhile, their starting RT was off the Green Bay practice squad in 2010, and their starting LG was the other McQuistan brother who is on his 4th team since 2006.

So, they have a physically punishing football team and most of their players have been acquired since 2010 when Carroll and Schneider were brought on board.

They have built their entire secondary - you know, the one people are calling the best in football - since then, along with the entire OL that Marshawn Lynch runs behind save for the center, Max Unger who is a hold-over from the 2009 draft.

They have sprinkled in players who other teams did not value that highly, with a few free agent purchases, and low-and-behold, they appear to have a young, promising team for 2012 and beyond.

And the best part?  It doesn't seem that they cared what anyone thought about their picks.  They did their own work, did not compare notes, did not care about favorable reviews, and believed in their system.

It might not be enough to win the Super Bowl this year, but it is interesting to see a door-mat figure out how to figure it out.

Meanwhile, the Redskins seem to have taken a decidedly different route to the same game yesterday.  They appear to have put all of their eggs in the basket of getting a potentially generational talent to their franchise and that is why the moment in the game where Robert Griffin's knee buckled caused most football fans to gasp in horror.

Seldom has a team had so much invested in one player who had also delivered so much already that the investment seemed proper.  But, as Cowboys fans know, Griffin has been limp-jogging for most of the last month and despite looking as if he planned on willing his team all of the way to a trophy, reality caught up yesterday at a rather innocuous moment in the contest.

Griffin's knee buckled and all you could consider were the times where a franchise had a prodigy-level talent who was dealing with a health issue that might jeopardize everything and they either pulled the plug completely - like the same city's baseball team did with Stephen Strasburg just this year - or took extreme caution at every turn - like the Dallas Mavericks' coach Don Nelson insisted on back in 2003 when Dirk Nowitzki's knee was the concern.

But, this one was tricky.  There were doctor's reports and a player's wishes to sort through.  There was the cliche' about this being "the once-in-a-lifetime chance" with a divisional title and a home playoff game to consider.  There was the painted dirt that the Redskins call a playing surface this late in the year.  And there was a roster that only boasted another rookie QB.

Mike Shanahan had built his entire scheme around this singular talent, so he trusted his eyes and the words of his QB and went for it.  And it failed.  And now, people want answers for how he could be so reckless with his player at just the wrong time.

Shanahan said he trusted his gut and his QB's wishes.  They were only in that spot because RG3 got them there, so you can understand the position.  It is easy to sit here and say that this is too reckless in this situation, but at the core of all of this is that this sport is based on the warrior mentality this time of year to play through injuries and drag your body out there for your team.

It didn't work this time, and who knows now what this does to Griffin's long term potential, but you can now see how complex this issue is.  The medical people said he passed the tests, but then hedge their bets by saying they were still unsure or nervous about the outcome.  That hardly seems definitive except in that they were clearly covering their own rear ends.

I hope that one of the most exciting players to arrive in the NFL recovers well and that we get to see his career as it was promised, but, I don't feel 2nd-guessing the Redskins decision making process on this particular situation is anything more than outcome-based logic.  Because he got hurt, it looks like a bad decision.  But, since time travel is not available to any of us, one has a hard time fairly saying that the Redskins should have ignored their QB's wishes.  It was only because of his courage last week that they were hosting this game to begin with.

Great stuff in Washington in a game that eliminates the entire NFC East from the playoffs.  And now, we try to come to grips with there being just 7 games left in the season.

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