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Showing posts with label Tony Romo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tony Romo. Show all posts

Friday, 6 September 2013

Romo Starts Up That Hill Again

Posted on 08:16 by Unknown
250 days.

I know it seems that football season is longer than ever before and that in someways it is going year-round.  

Well, I am telling you that you have gone to sleep and awakened to a new day 250 times since the Cowboys spit the proverbial bit in Washington on December 30, 2012, in a game that Tony Romo might just take to his QB-career grave.

If you need a reminder of how I summed it up 250 mornings ago, here is a brief snip of this larger post:

this offensive performance must be positioned as nothing short of a failure.  The job, in particular by Tony Romo - the man who is most responsible for the Cowboys being in this position to begin with - was just not nearly at the level it needed to be to win a tough divisional road game on the final night of the season.  
Romo, as I am sure you are well aware, picked a horrendous time for his 4th multi-interception game of 2012.  In those 4 games, as you might imagine, the Cowboys were winless.  The first 3 were home games against the Bears, Giants, and these same Redskins, but this one had all of the trimmings of a playoff game and the picks were all damaging and key.  
But, no interception of Romo's career might hurt as much as the last one of 2012.  For that was a pick that comes down to that moment that everyone dreams when they discuss the credentials of their favorite QB.  They always ask the question, "can this guy get your team down the field on that one drive with everything on the line?"
There it was. 3:35 to play in the game, down 21-18.  A quick 14 yard gainer to Witten down the middle  gave the Cowboys breathing room out to their own 29.  And on 1st and 10 from their own 29, they hurried to the line with shotgun again with 3:06 to go. 
The Redskins bring tons of pressure all game and that particular blitz was seen on several occasions.  In fairness to Romo, if he can get the ball over the top of Rob Jackson, the right outside linebacker who starts toward Romo and then peels off to stay with Murray, then Murray will have the ability to run a long, long ways.  The Redskins are defending with recklessness and despite their success, if the Cowboys can break one play on this final drive, they can win the game and the NFC East.
But, because of the pressure, Romo is back-pedaling.  This will not allow him to measure his throw with any amount of precision.  And because he is off balance, his lofted throw is short and Jackson is able to recover and and attack the ball, securing it for the biggest play of his career. 
There are a number of problems with this decision from your QB, with the most obvious one being that it is 1st Down.  You cannot likely survive a sack, but this is where you either see Witten open over the blitz or you throw the ball into the sideline.  You cannot make a risky throw on 1st Down with everything on the line.  And you also cannot excuse him because of some Jim Haslett ambush call.  That blitz was as predictable as could be after seeing his calls for 57 minutes already.  Romo just got it wrong at the most inopportune time - possibly of his career. 
And this is where the Cowboys' QB is again; In a place where he will unfortunately have to serve as a piƱata for the next several months as people who barely watched him will latch on to the easy narrative rather than considering a very strong season running an offense that made him over-come obstacle after obstacle all year long.  He is good enough to carry a team for months at a time, so how come he isn't good enough to perform at an efficient level in this one-game scenario last night against an equally-battered team? 
I will continue to say that the Quarterback is not holding this franchise back - not at any level.  But, that doesn't mean that he didn't let them down last night.  In fact, this was a spot where we knew that they needed their best players to be their best players, and as much as I appreciate the challenges he has to deal with, he simply had to do better than he did with his opportunities on this Sunday night. 
Making you read that again certainly wasn't nice, now was it?

But, as much as has been written here about all of the different components and elements of the 2013 Dallas Cowboys, I would be kidding you and myself if I really allowed the season to begin without one single entry about the most important player on the field, and of course, that is Romo.

He does get ripped mercilessly other places.  And perhaps, for that reason, I avoid writing about him too often.  But, that is disingenuous if I over-do it.

No, I don't think the Cowboys lose because of Romo.  I never have.  I am also aware and have written about his track record and bottom line numbers.  

Yes, I think that Romo is the reason that this team has been and will be always in the playoff mix as long as he plays at this level.  So, while I enjoy writing about DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray in the preseason as well as countless discussion about 53 man roster construction, special teams, and the idea of having some injury luck, let us not forget this basic and obvious fact:

If Tony Romo is good, the Cowboys can win their division and have a chance to "make a run."  If he doesn't, well, the rest of this doesn't much matter when it comes to arriving at any desired destinations.

He is now 33.  He is better than most will ever admit to, but those of us who consider ourselves loyalists, we have to be willing to look at moments like his last game in 2012 and demand better - rather than look to blame Jerry Jones or the front office or the offensive line.

Of course, those departments leave plenty to be desired.  But, he knows the drill by now.  The job is that he is going to have to be great.  He is going to have help at times, and others he is going to have to drag the team to victory.  He will be able to throw picks, but not many of them.  He will never get the week-to-week credit and he will have to like it.  In exchange, he will make an absurd amount of money for a player who is 33 and has been a part of one playoff win.  I assume it is a deal he is ok with.  Otherwise, he could have passed on the extension and attempted to find a new situation in a city with less of a challenge.

It is interesting that so many people focus on his interception total last year, which, admittedly, led the league with 19.  But, he also threw 648 passes (his previous career high was 550) and therefore saw his interception rate at a very reasonable 2.9% - better than several starters and right near his career rate of 2.8%.  This is not where the league leaders are - there were 6 starters who had below 2%, but he doesn't have to change much.

He just needs to prove his quality and see it through.  He needs to get a chance to right the wrong of Week 17 in Washington.

This time, it is hard to say that his offense hasn't been improved.  More weapons, all 3 of the interior 3 OL have been addressed.

So now, as you can make a case for 7-9 or 10-6, I have to attach any predictions to the health of Tony Romo and his performance when things break down around him.  I am going to sit on 9-7 this year, and mostly because I think he will keep them in games.

But, at age 33, I know he is feeling that this career train is traveling fast.  Urgency and maturity will push him to new heights.  And having a weapon like Dez Bryant may revive his form of 2007 when he had a dominant Terrell Owens - a time when we wondered if Romo was the best QB in the NFC.

On the eve of his next challenge, I perhaps saved the most obvious points for last.  He is vital to their success and he is the guy who keeps them in the mix.  But, being in the mix has not been good enough for anyone and here is his next chance to change his perception.  One NFC Championship game, at least, and suddenly, the commentary on him would soften.

Otherwise, those that seem to make their living constructing a misleading and misguided narrative about his career will continue to have the last word.

And certainly, we don't need that.
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Posted in 2013 Cowboys, Tony Romo | No comments

Thursday, 5 September 2013

2013 NFL Quarterback Win Total Post

Posted on 18:53 by Unknown
For no other reason than I want to post this every Opening Day, here are the records, playoff records, and Super Bowl titles for the 32 QBs who are their team's respective "QB1".

I know, I know - unfair stats and there is nothing more unreasonable than hanging wins and losses on a Quarterback, but this is the world in which we live and the blog I want to make available to those who find it interesting or a reference guide for bar-room discussions.

NFC EAST

TeamStarter QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
NYGE Manning13578-578-32
PHIVick10356-44-12-30
DALRomo9355-381-30
WASGriffin159-60-10



NFC NORTH

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
MINPonder2612-140-00
CHICutler9351-421-10
GBRodgers7852-266-31
DETStafford4517-280-10



NFC SOUTH

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
NOBrees16999-705-41
ATLRyan7856-221-40
TBFreeman5624-320-00
CARNewton3213-190-00



NFC WEST

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
SFKaepernick75-22-10
SEAWilson1611-51-10
STLBradford4215-26-10-00
ARIPalmer12154-670-20


And now, to the AFC:

AFC EAST

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
NEBrady175136-3917-73
BUFManuel00-00-00
NYJSanchez6233-294-20
MIATannehill167-90-00



AFC NORTH

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
PITRoethlisberger12687-3910-42
BALFlacco8054-269-41
CLEWeeden155-100-00
CINDalton3219-130-20


AFC SOUTH

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
INDLuck1611-50-10
TENLocker114-70-00
JACGabbert245-190-00
HOUSchaub8244-381-10


AFC WEST

TeamStarting QBStartsRecordPlayoff RecRings
SDRivers11270-423-40
OAKFlynn21-10-00
DENP Manning224154-709-111
KCA Smith7538-36-11-10

Enjoy without prejudice.  
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Posted in NFL Playoffs, QB, Tony Romo | No comments

Monday, 1 April 2013

On the Tony Romo Extension

Posted on 06:52 by Unknown
On Friday, Tony Romo agreed to a brand-new, eye-popping contract that was the talk of the NFL.  6 years, $108 million with $55m guaranteed, a $25m signing bonus, and $57m in his 1st 3 seasons were the headline terms and depending on your overall views of Romo, Jerry Jones, and the Cowboys, it is quite possible

Often times, when discussing business that has recently been completed in the offices at Valley Ranch, we look at them through the lens of "how the Cowboys do business."  However, it would be silly to compare an unnecessary extension to Jay Ratliff with a very necessary fixing of Tony Romo's contract situation that would have reached a very damaging head if things were not adjusted before next spring.

In this case, we must ignore all of the reckless decisions that have been made locally when it comes to managing the Cowboys cap, and simply answer some basic truths that are not Cowboys-centric, but rather fully acknowledged around the league.

Let's Start with this one.

1. Teams that have quarterbacks who are still at the top of their abilities do not let them leave unless they have the next one ready.

Go back as far as you want on this one, but I went back to 2008.  With the exception of the Denver Broncos - who decided that the maintenance level on Jay Cutler was not worth the trouble - you are hard pressed to find a decent QB who could be considered in the top half of the league who changed teams without his former employer having a real grasp on what was next.

Brett Favre?  Aaron Rodgers.
Peyton Manning?  Andrew Luck.
Drew Brees?  Phil Rivers.
Even Carson Palmer?  Andy Dalton.

You can find old Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck or David Gerrard, I suppose, but those teams didn't want those guys and were pretty sure they could replace them with what they have in house or it simply didn't matter too much.

The Cowboys have nothing close to being "the next one".  This is a systemic issue inside the organization as other teams look for QBs every April even if they don't need them because around the league we have seen time and time again that the blocked, young backup QB is currency.  He can be an easy flip for draft picks after holding the clipboard for Tom Brady or Brees for a few seasons.   Ron Wolf used to take a QB just about every year despite having a 25-year old Favre (Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, Hassellbeck) .  Always look ahead.  But, the with the exception of the short-lived Stephen McGee project, the Cowboys have pretty much stood firm on the idea that they were locking up Tony Romo and throwing away the key, only getting past-their-prime backups to stand on the sideline in a non-threatening posture.

Without the next one, they had no choice but to give in to any demand from Romo's camp.  Jerry Jones cannot think about a world in which he doesn't have a chance at a Super Bowl run.  And he knows, as bleak as things might look with Romo, without Romo and with a need to find the next one on the scrap heap or free agency, he can only see 2001-2005 again in his memory.

2. As much as we make about post-season failures, there are 16 games played every year before that which determine salaries.

In an interview with Bob Costas before the playoffs started this season, Aaron Rodgers threw out a quote that fits Romo pretty well: "I really believe you earn your paycheck during the season, then the post season is all about creating your legacy."

This tells us a few things if we believe that.  One, that Romo's legacy is dependent on either coming through in January someday, or not really having a legacy that endures the test of time.  This is not breaking news or anything.  It is simply an obvious truth.  We all know that in football and especially at the QB position, so much is measured and admitted based on whether or not that QB had that "1 shining moment" or big run.  Does he have a ring?  Even just 1?  If you have 1, you are admitted into the club.  If you don't, you can still be considered to be a significant player, but Dan Marino is just not ever going to be considered in Peyton Manning's class.  And it simply comes down to Manning winning Super Bowl 41.  Otherwise, Marino has every right to that level.  But, Romo is even down another level as he has only won 1 playoff game.  I won't list everyone in the league who has 1 playoff win at QB, but allow me to assure you that it is a very lengthy list.  There is no history in a single solitary wildcard win.

But, the other thing it tells us, is just as vital.  Quarterbacks earn their paychecks based on giving their team a chance to win every Sunday - from September until December.  That is why they are paid.  If January success determined money in this league, there would be plenty of Quarterbacks living in apartments every year.

It doesn't.  What makes QB the most well-paid position in the sport is the ability to single-handidly raise the competitive level of a team.  Now, one guy can't change an entire team from lousy to Super Bowl champion, but he can take a D+ and turn it into a B- and that can cover a lot of issues around the squad that didn't get fixed.  A QB, now paid over $1 million dollars per regular season game, can be the deodorant on a team like the Cowboys for a lot of stinky departments.  And if you don't think Romo is that guy, then we might have to agree to disagree.

He has a career 55-38 record as starter and statistics that are well above the league average across the board.  He is the 5th highest rated QB over the course of his career, trailing only Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and Brees since 2006.  Like I have always said, if one of those 4 are available, go get them.  But, since truth #1 at the top of the page is true, you can forget about that.  Instead, you are sifting through the Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb files if you are looking for a QB this off-season, and I don't see their names on that list.  Forget it.

So, the going rate for QBs are set.  Romo has a resume of 7 seasons of starting at a high value.  The Cowboys had no fall-back option and he would have been highly compensated in free agency next spring if it wasn't done.

You may not like it, but you must confess it was the only reasonable move to make.  Especially given the Cowboys situation where they were already all-in for the present and not worried about the cap monster that they were feeding that will hit when Ratliff, DeMarcus Ware, Jason Witten, and Miles Austin all hit the end.

Romo has kept his end of the bargain if Rodgers is right about players earning their checks in the regular season by being asked to perform with a silly offensive line and at times a sub-standard defense.  He has certainly been out-performed by several QBs in this league, but given their unavailability and your lack of a backup plan, this deal is what it is.

And that is what?  Well, according to Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas, here are the details:

Here’s the breakdown of Romo’s contract, not including the $25 million signing bonus:  
2013: $1.5 million base salary, $11.818 million cap figure  
2014: $13.5 million base salary, $21.773 million cap figure  
2015: $17 million base salary, $25.273 million cap figure  
2016: $8.5 million base salary, $15.135 million cap figure  
2017: $14 million base salary, $19 million cap figure  
2018: $19.5 million base salary, cap figure  
2019: $20.5 million base salary, cap figure 
So, simply add $5 million to each base in the first 5 seasons and the difference is what they already owed him when this deal was done.  The guarantee was basically that $25m bonus, his 2013 and 2014 money and the cash outlay of $8 million previously in 2014-2016 for a total of almost all of the $55m.  The rest is guesswork without reading the contract (which they never let me do).

It basically is a 4-year extension for $68 million through 2017.  $17 million a season for his age 33-37 year old seasons.  If the Cowboys wish to continue in 2018 or 2019 with a QB who is quite old, they can, but at $40 million that will be 100% their decision - provided they don't rework his deal several times between now and then.  And that, of course, is an idea which (now we can return to thinking about how Valley Ranch does things) history tells us that they most certainly will do as early as next spring.

But, this overall decision was not - as some are saying - another example of the Cowboys being the Cowboys.

Signing and securing your QB when you receive above-average QB play is good business in a league where the QB is vital.  Saying goodbye a year too early is a principle in place that can be applied to all sorts of transactions, but the only teams that say goodbye to their QBs are those that either don't have strong QB play or already have a confident successor ready.

And the Cowboys, in this case, are not in either of those categories.

This particular move was necessary and needed, regardless of what the message board and sports radio callers are going to say.
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Posted in cowboys 2013, Cowboys Contracts, FSSW, Jerry Jones, Tony Romo | No comments

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Steelers

Posted on 08:03 by Unknown
There was a pretty interesting stat that emerged from the Cowboys exciting win on Sunday that I think is worth mentioning before we move the Pittsburgh game completely aside.  It is the following:

Since 2004, there have been 5 times that the Steelers have lost a game while conceding 300 yards of passing to the opposing QB:

Sept 25, 2005 - New England 23, Pittsburgh 20 - Tom Brady 346 yards
December 9, 2007 - New England 34, Pittsburgh 13 - Brady 399 yards
November 11, 2010 - New England 39, Pittsburgh 26 - Brady 350 yards
January 8, 2012 - Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23 - Tim Tebow 316 yards
December 16, 2012 - Dallas 27, Pittsbugh 24 - Tony Romo 328 yards

In other words, it doesn't happen very often.

This was actually the 7th game this season where the Cowboys offense put up 400 yards of total offense, but it has been one of those years where the Cowboys have put up a very large amount of its production in games when they fall way behind and build up statistics that may or may not truly matter.

The Giants game in week 1 is thought of as the most efficient game this season in terms of productivity,  with an enormous 7.6 yards per play and 433 yards on just 57 snaps in a game where there was never a circumstance that would point to hollow yardage.  The top 2 performances in terms of yards per play were 2 of the last 3 games in which DeMarco Murray has been available again - 6.7 against a Philadelphia team that has offered no resistance whatsoever this season and 6.5 against a Pittsburgh team that builds its entire identify off its defense.

In fact, if you add in the 481 yards put up against the Baltimore Ravens, and you might see that the Cowboys showed themselves quite capable against the physical AFC North.  Wins against the Browns and Bengals, and offensive showings against the Ravens and Steelers - along with a 3-1 record (just a kick from 4-0) - tell us that the Cowboys may be a more physical team than we gave them credit for being.

There was a stat that floated out there on Sunday about the fact that DeMarco Murray has not eclipsed the 100 yard barrier since Week 1 in New York, and that is absolutely true.  If you have built your fantasy football team around him this year, I imagine your playoff run is already over.  But, it is tough to measure what his effect is on this offense from a standpoint of being capable of converting short yardage situations, picking up blitzes, being a receiver out of the backfield, and most importantly, selling play action.

Teams do not want to get beat for big yards against him, and that is why the linebackers stay home on the play fakes.  This allows for plenty more opportunities down the field - like the seam pass to Jason Witten for the touchdown on Sunday, and slants right past the ears of linebackers after a run fake.  That, and the fact that Murray has been good for 289 rushing and receiving yards in 3 games tells you that he is worth all of his hype.

Obviously, however, the Cowboys have discovered the hard way just how weak their offense looks when Murray is not available.  I don't believe Felix Jones is even a consideration for an extension in 2013, simply because the offense just cannot function with Jones or even Phillip Tanner behind him.  One major objective on draft day has to be to get another young RB or two in here to compete for the #2 job behind Murray.  To not plan for his next injury would be irresponsible, but given his style of running and his durability issues, the Cowboys must make it a priority to be covered the next time he cannot go for an extended period of time.

Other items worth mentioning included the idea that the Steelers were unable to generate many negative plays.  James Harrison certainly did a fine job on the Murray fumble in the red zone and the Romo naked boot leg that he sniffed out and destroyed, while Lawrence Timmons threw Tony Romo for a giant sack, but 3 plays out of 63 is a number you can live with after Geno Atkins alone had a half-dozen the week before.  I know the Steelers are not at the height of their defensive powers these days, but I think in a week where the Cowboys had to deal with the many exotic looks that a Dick LeBeau defense can provide, the fact that they seldom allowed a blitzer a free run at Romo is definitely worth pointing out.

The zone blitz requires the proper personnel, but to see Pittsburgh run it like they do really makes me wonder if the Cowboys could do more of that sort of thing with their defense.  The Steelers show that they are bringing 7 all of the time, but almost always have 2 or 3 dropping back in to passing lanes.  The one time they brought all 7 was on the 2nd and goal play in the 4th Quarter, right before the Murray TD run on 3rd and Goal.  They have almost no healthy cornerbacks and still are running a Cover 0 blitz on the goal-line.  I loved it, but couldn't tell if it was desperation or a great strategy.

But, through it all, I think most of us would have to say that the offensive line played about as well as you can expect them to.  In particular, Doug Free versus Lamarr Woodley was a match-up that did not result in any Steelers' highlights - perhaps because Woodley's health is not anywhere near where it should be, but take your victories any way you can get them.

One more offensive development worth raising is the contributions of Dwayne Harris, James Hanna, and Cole Beasley.  All 3 made plays in the passing game to help compensate for less Dez Bryant targets, and all 3 look very threatening as speedy threats.  I wish we would have seen more Hanna in 2012, but I understand that he must distinguish himself as a blocking threat if he wants to be used more.  That could simply require time and development in the offseason, because his wheels sure made linebackers look useless trying to run with him.  That is the type of mismatch issue that you would want to feature every week now that it has been shown off.

Let's check some of the numbers now-

Data from Week 14 vs Pittsburgh



Run-Pass21-42
Starting Field PositionD 32
1st Down Run-Pass7-26
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go7.26
2nd Down Run-Pass7-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go7.2
3rd Down Run-Pass6-5
3rd Down Conversions4-11, 36%


Lots and lots of passing from lots of formations.  This game was going to be on Tony Romo versus Dick LeBeau.  Could Romo move the team without throwing a pass into traffic?

He did very well.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.



1st Half -





2nd Half -  many throws to the perimeter allow you to keep moving the ball without trying to throw through traffic constantly.  



Here is the throw chart for Miles Austin as he became the primary receiver with Dez Bryant nursing his left hand injury.  





Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 150 Drives* 68 Run/82 Pass - 45% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run

This picture below shows familiar target Lawrence Vickers trying to catch a ball with the sun in his eyes.  In a stadium that is indoors, but with windows facing the west.  Amazing job by the designers of the stadium to feature direct sunlight on a football field.  There are no do-overs on billion dollar stadiums.



SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.


Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%

2012 Season Total: 489/921 53%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:




PackagePlays RunYardsRunPass
11120-01-2
1211846-485-36
134333-201-13
216442-44-40
22100-01-0
23565-60-0
S015290-05-29
S02000-00-0
S11221484-918-139
S128710-08-71
Knee101-00-0
Totals7028821-8742-330

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Last week, the Cowboys tried 27 different plays from "under center" formations.  And those 27 plays yielded a pathetic 62 yards.  This leads many of us to the conclusion that shotgun is there only hope.  But, look at how great it worked this week from under center - 28 plays for 169 yards.

They did not abandon their balanced looks and they found many more yards on the same number of snaps.  They should be congratulated for figuring that out.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:



PackagePlaysYardsRunPassFD/TD
11000-00-00/0
12131-30-00/1
13000-00-00/0
21000-00-00/0
22000-00-00/0
23474-70-02/0
S01280-02-81/0
S10000-00-00/0
S11481-33-50/0
S12000-00-00/0
Totals11266-135-133/1


Romo had a very efficient day under duress at times, but the Cowboys refused to scrap their offensive game-plan.  They worked down the field with a number of formations and produced one of their finest offensive performances.  Just a week after a very poor day in Cincinnati that they figured out how to win in the end, we shouldn't assume that they have turned a corner.

However, with more weapons and a player like Dez Bryant who is still coming up with Touchdowns, there is reason to believe that if they need 28-35 points to deal with New Orleans this week, they just might be able to find them.

Maybe, just in the nick of time, this offense is starting to gain some traction.


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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, FSSW, Garrett 2012, Tony Romo | No comments

Sunday, 26 August 2012

Cowboys Passing Charts Preseason Week 3

Posted on 19:36 by Unknown
Week 3 of preseason came and went, but the passing charts are here forever.

Full Game
C/A: 22/36
TD: 2
YDS: 333
INT: 0

Romo
C/A: 9/13
TD: 2
YDS: 198
INT: 0

Orton
C/A: 9/12
TD: 0
YDS: 99
INT: 0
McGee
C/A: 4/6
TD: 0
YDS: 52
INT: 0

Carpenter
C/A: 0/5
TD: 0
YDS: 0
INT: 0
Before you say anything, I know he was 0 for 5, but since these charts are more about the patterns of the QB I included his on completion that was voided thanks to a penalty.  Also I kind of felt bad for him.


If you need any help in understanding them try checking out the FAQs.  For what its worth follow me on Twitter.

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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, Passing Charts, Tony Romo | No comments

Thursday, 7 June 2012

How the Offense All Fits Together

Posted on 05:41 by Unknown
Today is one of those blogs where many who have played football for any length of time might not learn anything they haven't heard in high school or college from their coaches in the film room. But, for those of us who have little or no actual playing experience, it is a topic worth discussing during the offseason to try and explain why coaching and play-calling is a very delicate dance that must be performed with circumstances each Sunday.

Since 2008, on my personal blog, I have been logging every play-call, down and distance, and personnel grouping from every snap of every game. During this time, with well over 4,500 play calls, we have a really interesting profile of how Jason Garrett runs his offense. There have been many variations and personnel situations that have caused him to morph his philosophy as the offensive coordinator and then the head coach, but it is all sitting there in the data base and logged for analyzation.

We have the data available to see what the Cowboys are good at offensively, bad at offensively, and a third category that is inconsistent enough to say that we just don't know what the performance is going to be sometimes.

But, what is interesting to me is that when you examine this data, or even just as you keep up with our weekly "Decoding Garrett" studies that are linked here if you are so inclined to kill off the rest of your day, we come up with many reasons why the offense is not as good as the other heavyweights in the NFL. Personnel-wise, when you stack up the Cowboys offensive skill position personnel with those teams that win Super Bowls or consistently play deep into January (Saints, Patriots, Packers, Giants, Colts), you feel pretty good, usually.

So, why, then, do the results suggest that the Cowboys are not a team that fits into January very often?

And the answer to that is different, depending on who you ask. I consume a lot of NFL programming on television and on the radio. I would be more than happy if the NFL was to the USA as soccer is to Europe. What that means is if the season went from August to May and there were really no other major sports, I would be fine with that. I love the NFL that much.

But, I don't love how the NFL is critically covered. I think we "dumb down" the conversations and simplify all issues to the most ridiculous standards. And therefore, nationally especially, when the conversation comes up about why the Cowboys don't win more in the post-season, invariably, the answer from people who either don't study the team or don't know how to study the team always arrives at 2 places: Tony Romo (The QB) and Jason Garrett (The Coach).

It would be one thing if it was just callers who would ignore data and 900 snaps to focus on 5-10 snaps that were poor, but it is not. It is a wide array of media and many on the set of NFL Network or ESPN which can certainly cause your average fan to take notice. Wow, if Jamie Dukes thinks this, and if he played in the league as long as he did, surely he is right. Meanwhile, when talking about him and his golf and his wife and baby, we must also roll highlights behind him of the Revis interception, the Bobby Carpenter interception, and the missed FG hold in Seattle in 2006

Because clearly, if you have a QB who throws 31 TDs and 10 Interceptions, has a QB Rating of 102.5, and has his best season of his career by almost all individual metrics - including the 2007 season when his team was 13-3 - we should all look at the QB as the reason the season went bad. Why? Because! It is easy and simple! Blame the most famous football player on the team who plays the position that we can all see easily. Never-mind the other positions. They are just there to keep him company. The defense? That doesn't matter either if you listen to the radio or watch the television. It is Romo. The Cowboys are never going to win with Romo. This is a critical year for Romo. Romo...Romo...Romo...Romo.

It is enough to make you try to avoid the noise. If they are not going to explain why the Cowboys function as they do without digging deeper than the very top, most simple layer, then why even bother? Nobody is saying that Tony Romo is perfect, or even elite all of the time, but to suggest that QB is holding this franchise back over the last 7 seasons is insane on almost every level. But, it is way easier to answer shortly and confidently that Romo is the problem. To explain a more complex disfunction in the organization is boring and laborious.

So, now, I am sure you are asking: "So, if it isn't what they say it is, what is the problem?" And if you read my works on a regular basis, this is going to be repetitive. But, here is the really abbreviated version.

The line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball have not been a strength of the team since the dynasty days of the 1990s. This decay during the Romo era has led to issues in the running game, pass protection, and play-calling. Our data seems to suggest that in 2011, just like 2008-2010, the Cowboys would enter games with a game-plan not to attack and to win, but to protect their under-manned offensive line - which is most certainly not a recipe for dominance.

Here is part of our study after the debacle in Arizona in early December:

the differences between the home and road game plans are so drastic and frankly, predictable, that one certainly has room to wonder if the Cowboys attempt to call two different game plans.

At home, they are aggressive and determined. Run and pass splits are nearly identical. They often make their opponents choose their poison and then serve it up on a platter. It may not always work, but they are adventurous and creative in the way they go about their business. They will try even trick plays, they will pass when you think run, they will pound the ball until you can stop it, and they have a swagger.

On the road, they are timid. They are easily chased off their objectives. They abandon the run early and often. They put everything on their QB and his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. They seem to call plays in an effort to prevent disasters rather than to attack. They send a message to the troops that they are not sure if they can score points, so they often don't.

And this pattern has been in place for quite a while. Nobody is saying they never bring their home personality on the road, because they do. And sometimes, their road personality shows up in Arlington, too. But, if you look at the large sample under the play-calling of Jason Garrett, it is clear that there is a split in objectives and intentions between home games and road games.

Let's look at some evidence.

The best way a play caller can send a message to his opponent is by calling plays on 1st Down. It establishes the tone and attitude of the offense and declares to the opponent what is planned for the day.

But, when the Cowboys have been at home this season, on 1st and 10, the Cowboys have run 177 plays. The splits for those 177 snaps to start a play sequence has been 98 runs and 79 passes. The 55%/45% split demonstrates proper balance for a balanced offense. On 1st Down, you run the ball more because on 3rd Down, you almost never run. But as a whole, 55% runs on 1st Down will mean that your overall balance will be intact.

Conversely, when the Cowboys have played their 6 games on the road, they have had 172 1st and 10 situations. The splits on 1st Down when they have been on the road has seen just 68 runs and 104 passes. This 39%/61% split on 1st and 10 sets the Cowboys up for days where they never get anything done on the ground and become a 1-dimensional team. We have even heard explanations about the opponent putting an eighth man in the box to encourage the Cowboys to start slinging the ball around the yard.


Those last several paragraphs are why people like me constantly beg Jerry Jones to properly address his offensive and defensive lines. Once you can protect and fortify your pass protection and run game, then you can actually get back to the objectives of football. To grind out a win by forcing your will on your opponent, rather than trying to keep Vince Wilfork or Jason Pierre Paul from injuring your QB. And, what would be so bad about having a few players on defense that put the fear of Randy White in the minds of your opponents?

Football is a game that is won up front. And it always has been. Despite the evolutions in the game, it still comes back to the line of scrimmage. Which is why I will always argue for David DeCastro or Fletcher Cox on draft day and I will always cringe when some talking head brings up the idea that Tony Romo is on the hot seat after putting up a 31/10 season.

Which brings us to a piece of video from the current series on the NFL Network, Top 100. It profiles and ranks players from 100 to 1, and gives us 10 hours of football content during the heart of the offseason. During Jason Witten's profile, he had a brief reference to this point that validates the issues in the New England game from last October:



Witten is talking to the receivers at the 2:45 mark of that video in Foxboro on the bench: "Listen, here's the game. Stops, seam stops, drags. That's what we have to do. If we can't hold up the protection, we have to get the ball out and do something with it."

What he was talking about were the extremely short routes that are a counter to your offensive line falling apart (again). They were reduced to 3 and 5 step drops in this game and many others because the line was getting destroyed. And when you don't have protection, you can't hold the ball (or run the ball). So you have to throw quick routes into tight confines (because the defense knows you can't protect and they are jumping the short routes, too).

So, we can talk Dez or DeMarco or Romo all we want. It is fun to do and they are important pieces. But, you can see, that the game plan is different when the Cowboys know they are outclassed at the line of scrimmage. We don't see the "Jason Garrett Offense". Instead, we see "the offense that they think they can run without getting Romo killed" offense. If you can't block Vince Wilfork and friends - or the Giants in New York or the Eagles in Philadelphia - then you cannot get your run game going. You also seldom can throw the ball deep. And on and on it goes.

Before long, you are getting mad at Romo and Garrett for play calling and not putting points on the board. And in both cases, they are partly to blame. But, the real blame goes to the fact that even when everyone is healthy, in 2011, the offensive line was nowhere near the level of a contender. Nowhere near, in fact. And you cannot look at sacks allowed to validate this fact. Because, the Cowboys were avoiding sacks by not calling plays where there was any chance of sacks. But, that was limiting their offense in these key "showdown" games to 20% of their playbook. Vanilla, quick hitting passes and shotgun draws. It is easy to defend and difficult to put points on the board. And we really shouldn't blame the players on that offensive line, but rather the architects of the roster who put them in that position that they were not ready for. The decision makers who shape the roster are the ultimate stop for the credit or blame of any franchise.

We hope that in 2012, the problems have been fixed, but we will definitely have to see that interior hold up against live action before we are willing to go out on that limb.

But, until that time, we will continue to hear people tell us that Romo is just not a great leader and needs to be more clutch from those that shape opinions.

Or, we can watch baseball.
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Jason Garrett, Tony Romo | No comments

Monday, 19 December 2011

The Morning After: Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 15 (8-6)

Posted on 06:01 by Unknown
"Don't ever let the facts spoil a good story" - Mark Twain

Why Mr. Twain originally offered that quote is up for debate, but the 2011 application of it seems to apply to the 2011 Dallas Cowboys story. Here are learned, wise NFL pundits talking each week about the Dallas Cowboys. And they go on and on discussing the inability of the Cowboys to take a season by the scruff of the neck before each Cowboys' game. They look carefully at all of the information in front of them, cross reference it with all of their personal experience in the game which is often plentiful and extensive, and then flush it right down the toilet.

Because, when one is predisposed to an opinion, there is often no amount of evidence that will turn their opinion short of being smacked in the face. Then, and only then, will they concede that maybe they were barking up the wrong tree.

And they arrive at a familiar destination.

Tony Romo.

Yes, the Cowboys QB is the topic of conversation. Why he can't make the big plays at the big moment. Why he has a December record that is unacceptable. Why he is not in the top class and why his coach doesn't trust him. And then, they start the game, the pregame show guys all put their feet up on the desk and congratulate each-other on a perfect show, and they start to watch a player who they have barbecued play.

All Tony Romo does is go out and play top level football from the QB position. Some weeks it is enough to win, other weeks the Cowboys waste a fabulous performance from their QB because something else on the team broke down. But, despite his performance, the narratives are already written. The dye has been cast. Romo is their target. Facts be damned.

Such was the case on Saturday Night, as before the game and after the game, the NFL Network demonstrated to us that this team is all about its QB. They link postseason failures and blown 4th Quarter leads to Romo. For it was Romo who lost 34-3 to the Vikings in 2009. And it was Romo who lost every single game he ever played that mattered. Because obviously the many he has won don't matter.

Against Tampa Bay, the Cowboys received a 4 Touchdown performance from Romo in the 1st half. You can make a real case that none of his 3 TD passes were a result of the called play. Instead, the improvisational skills of a player who has never been more locked in was on full display. Unlike the games against the Redskins and Dolphins where he made sensational improv plays rolling to his left, this time, the QB who takes as much ridicule as any QB in the game, rolled to his right for TD passes to all 3 of his WRs. It was truly remarkable stuff.

The Cowboys converted 3rd Down after 3rd Down. They went for the knock out early for a Tampa Bay team that has very little in the categories of talent or resolve, and Dallas found it quite easily because of their gigantic edge at the most important position on the field.

But this isn't about 1 game against a bad team in December. This is about a season that is the best of his career. And whether the critics care to acknowledge it or not, his career has numbers that can certainly rival just about anyone he ever plays against.

This isn't to say that Romo is perfect. Obviously, there are real issues with a QB who has never advanced his team in the playoffs past the Round of 8. That will have to change for his reputation to ever truly emerge on the other side. And Donovan McNabb is fine example of a QB who won tons of games, plenty of playoff games, but never emerged as a champion and therefore will never be placed in the group of top QBs in his generation.

But, I seldom remember McNabb being the week-in, week-out target of discussion on every network roundtable about "what is wrong with that team". Do they discuss the issues on the defense? Seldom. Do they look at the under-whelming offensive line? Almost never. Instead, it is back to Romo.

What can he do to change this? If you say that the answer is to just go play well, you should consider the following:

In 2011, coming off an injury that knocked him out of the final 10 games in 2010, Romo is playing at his best level. His QB rating is 102.6, which is significantly higher than ever before. On the other hand, he has never had a rating below 90, so his performance speaks for itself. His career record is now 47-28, so he wins plenty, and for his career, he averages a 10-6 record.

Admittedly, a combination of rust and broken ribs helped Romo get off to a tough start in '11, and that was never more obvious in his meltdown performance in Week 4 against Detroit. 3 deadly interceptions set the football world into a feeding frenzy and it was well deserved. But, it would seem that a game played on October 2 is still the source for just about every talking head in the league. It obviously isn't his play since then.

In the 10 games since Oct 2, the Cowboys are 6-4, but the QB play has been nearly spotless. How good? Well, his 22 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions trail Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 4 INTs) and Drew Brees (27 TDs, 7 INTs). That is it. Given that those are widely held as 2 of the top 3 QBs in the sport, I would say for Rodgers, Brees, and Brady (22 TDs, 6 INTs) to be canonized each week and for Romo to have his job questioned just shows the silliness of pregame shows and sports talk radio in general.

Yes, Rodgers, Brees, and Brady have Super Bowl Rings. Of course they do. But, any guy in a sports bar can tell you that fact. He can tick down a list of guys with rings and say they are good and everyone else is lousy. But, I would expect top analysts to bring a little more information to the table than a guy in a jersey sitting in the booth over.

With the Cowboys 4 losses since Detroit, 3 times, Romo had the team in a position to win the game when he left the field (or in the New York game, at least get to OT). Against New England, the defense didn't have another stand in them. Against the Cardinals, the Field Goal incident happened. And against the Giants, Austin lost the ball in the lights and then Jason Pierre Paul blocked a FG.

But, if you go snap by snap and game by game, the Cowboys get a top grade at the QB position nearly ever week. His 107.1 rating since week 4 demonstrates that they are getting elite QB play despite inconsistent running and a very uneven performances from the offensive line.

And yet, the December record gets attached to Romo. His team has a poor record in December, and therefore it is obviously his fault, right? Well, in his last 7 December games, he has 15 TDs and 1 INT. Surely other QBs could do better, right?

It must be great to play for the Cowboys if you aren't Tony Romo or the coach (whoever that is at a given time). If the defense can't get a stop, the talking heads will jump Romo. If the line can't block, it is clearly Romo's fault. If a player drops a pass or misses a kick, the guys back at the studio in New York or Los Angeles will dust off their Romo rants. It speaks to his mental makeup that this reality never crushes his spirit.

We live in a city where a certain basketball star lived under the same scrutiny until June 2011. He was blamed for things that were his fault and things that weren't his fault. It was too easy just to say the same things about him rather than actually investigate why his team couldn't win it all.

And that is why on October 3, the day after the Detroit meltdown, Dirk Nowitzki felt for Romo and sent this missive out on Twitter: "Dear tony romo. Don't worry abt all the critics. I heard that same garbage for a long time. Keep working hard and keep improving."

Keep working hard and keep improving. Well, it appears that Romo took that advice to heart. He has played so well since that day. But, the Cowboys have weaknesses on this team that are clearly not overcome every week with elite QB play. Sometimes, he can pull them out of the fire (at Washington, Miami) and some weeks he cannot (at Arizona, New York).

After Saturday night's monster performance, Romo sat there as the NFL Network talked to him in that condescending way about accountability and whether winning matters. He took it as he always does with his guarded responses and his smiles. He then played along as Deion Sanders promised to wear Romo's jersey despite being a Romo critic if the Cowboys get to the NFC title game. Surely, Romo will find inspiration to know that Deion would actually give him credit if he made it in January.

Romo knows as anyone who follows this team knows as well; if the Cowboys don't win it all with Romo at QB, it will be his fault.

Even when it isn't.
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Morning After, Tony Romo | No comments

Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Breaking Down A Great Drive

Posted on 04:58 by Unknown


Tony Romo is on a tremendous roll right now, playing some of the best football of his career over the last few weeks. It sure seemed that if you combine his mastery of the 4th Quarter against Washington to what we saw in the 2nd half against Miami, there is reason to believe that Romo is rounding into a form that makes him a big threat in the NFC to put the Cowboys in a great spot. The sequence we want to review from the Miami game is all about Romo making play after play at a crucial moment of the contest.

Let's review the 9th Drive of the game here today. At this point, the Cowboys are trailing, have been out-gained badly, have lost momentum, and need to make a statement before this must-win game gets totally away from them. They have barely touched the ball in the 3rd Quarter and now take the ball after the Dolphins have taken a 16-10 lead.



Play #1: 1/10/23 - (3:48) T.Romo pass short left to M.Bennett to DAL 31 for 8 yards (K.Burnett). Pass complete on a "Crossing Pattern."

Cowboys start in "12" personnel. This is worth noting because they never leave "12" the entire rest of the quarter. This is an odd and enlightening idea for Jason Garrett. Seldom does he stay in the same personnel package for any extended period of time, but this time he saw they were getting in a rhythm and stayed with it. 1st Down and the Cowboys have the two tight ends lined up off each tackle in a double wing look. Dolphins are in a man-under coverage so Romo picks out Martellus Bennett going across the field with a LB - Kevin Burnett - in a trail position. Bennett has a step but is tripped up after 8 by a nice ankle tackle.

Non Play: 2/2/31 - (3:08) PENALTY on DAL-D.Free, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 31 - No Play.

Play #2: 2/7/26 - (2:43) (Shotgun) Romo pass short right to Witten to DAL 35 for 9 yards (K. Burnett)(R.Starks)

This play goes poorly because Kyle Kosier is getting trucked into the backfield by Randy Starks. This causes Romo to throw the ball into a bad area and if there is a moment he would like back, it would have to be this. Vontae Davis very likely should have picked off this pass to Witten, but the jump ball falls into the hands of the trusty Tight End after Romo held the ball for nearly 4 seconds (3.9). Protection and the QB just about ended the drive right here, but instead the Cowboys move the chains and get a fresh set of downs after Romo made a play under duress.





Play #3: 1/10/35 - (2:04) T.Romo pass short left to D.Murray to MIA 48 for 17 yards (V.Davis) [C.Wake]. Pass complete on a "Wheel" route.

Here it is all about Romo being Romo. Pass protection is a mess here as the Dolphins run a double LB blitz from the QB's right side and Tyron Smith guesses wrong in his assignment. He ends up helping Kosier for no apparent reason and the flank is unguarded. This leaves John Phillips to try to block two blitzers, and he doesn't touch Cameron Wake on the outside. Trouble is, Karlos Dansby is blowing him up on the inside, too. Romo is dead here and actually decides to run from Wake to the left and somehow sees Murray out of the corner of his eye on the wheel route and a sure sack turns into a 17 yard gain. There is no way he should be able to make this pass after such a poor protection breakdown. Murray takes the pass in full gallop and gets into Miami territory. Sensational play by the QB.

Play #4: 1/10/48 - (1:41) D.Murray right guard to MIA 44 for 4 yards (K.Dansby).

A standard run/pass option that turns into a Fullback lead play with Phillips helping Murray shoot up for 4 yards on 1st Down. This is a play you will see from many different personnel groupings and formations about 5-6 times per game.

Play #5: 2/6/44 - (1:06) T.Romo pass short left to L.Robinson ran ob at MIA 30 for 14 yards. Pass complete on a "Square Out."

I wanted to point out this play to whatever remains from the "Jon Kitna should start faction". There was a time in the last 12 months where some well-meaning Cowboys fans actually thought Kitna should start in front of Tony Romo. I know they may be hard to identify right now, but trust me, they existed. Anyway, this, right here, is a throw Kitna cannot make. In fact, this, around draft time, is what they call "the NFL throw". It is an out from the far hash mark of his own 48-yard line to the 30-yard line of the Dolphins on a frozen rope to Laurent Robinson from the slot with a corner trying to undercut the route. If the pass doesn't get there, it is a Pick-6 the other way. Romo fires it and verifies his arm strength with ease. Not easy, but it looked easy and the Cowboys are now at the Dolphins 30 as the clock is running down in the 3rd Quarter.

Play #6: 1/10/30 - (1:06) (No huddle) Murray to left end to Mia 30 for no gain. (C.Clemons)

It looks like the Cowboys are hurrying to the line of scrimmage to get a snap off to insure there is no challenge on the pass to Robinson. It is simply a zone play to the left with Phillips in a lead FB spot. The Dolphins string out the play wide, and Murray has to fight to just get back to the 30. Not the smoothest looking run play of the day as Doug Free loses his fight at the point of attack. The Dolphins have DBs crashing hard and there is no gain to be found.

Play #7: 2/10/30 - (:11) Romo pass to short middle and Robinson to Miami 23 for 7 yards (C Clemons) Pass complete on a drag route.

The last play of the 3rd Quarter is a route that we were wondering about a month ago. Where had all of the shallow crosses gone in the Jason Garrett offense? It looks like Laurent Robinson is bringing them back. Still in "12", Tight Ends clear out the shallow linebackers, and now Robinson from the slot takes his man coverage across the middle. Just like the Bennett completion, this is all a matter of leading the man and giving him a chance at a big play, but again Clemons is sound on the tackling and it is just 7 yards.

4th Quarter

Play #8: 3/3/23 - (15:00) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass short middle to J.Witten to MIA 18 for 5 yards (M.Mitchell) [K.Dansby]. Pass complete on a "Crossing Pattern."

At the Quarter break, the Cowboys change personnel packages for the only time in the drive. They switch to "11" personnel and take off a TE in exchange for a WR. Kevin Ogletree and Witten both run shallow routes while Robinson and Bryant head down the field. Again, the Dolphins are in a man-under coverage with 3rd and short. This play is not that far from the play that broke Romo's collarbone against the Giants in 2010. Like that play, they have a check-release call on for the RB. Felix Jones checks for a blitzer and then releases into his route. But, like Chris Gronkowski last year, he didn't see and pick up the blitzer as Karlos Dansby comes free and tries to knock Romo out. Romo keeps his cool and delivers a duck as he is being hammered and Witten barely gets to it and moves the chain before taking down an unsuspecting cheerleader. Surely, this is not something you want to have happen much, but full marks to Romo for hanging in there and making a huge 3rd Down. This is a field goal drive if this play doesn't happen.



Play #9: 1/10/18 - (14:37) (Shotgun) T.Romo pass deep left corner of end zone to L Robinson for 18 yards and TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on roll left for Romo.

Just a superb play, once again from "S11". Romo stays alive for 5.1 seconds with the ball as the protection is strong against a Dolphins 4 man rush. He then rolls to his left which obviously where he feels most comfortable these days (how many times have we seen it recently?) Robinson comes all the way across the field and Romo is feeling so good that he fires the ball over the head of Witten into the back of the end zone. Again, this requires a very strong arm and pin point accuracy. If the ball is not caught for a TD, then nobody is catching it. Simply phenomenal QB play on this play and the entire drive.

9 Plays - 73 yards - and the Cowboys took the lead again. They would need even another drive later to secure the win, but I just thought this was such a thing of beauty that we should take a harder look at it. Romo was on fire here as the ball never hit the turf.

"I'm not kidding you, that is one of the best drives a QB in the NFL will have this season" - Phil Simms
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Pass Offense, Play Calling, Tony Romo, Xs And Os | No comments

Thursday, 24 November 2011

The Morning After: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 19 (7-4)

Posted on 19:06 by Unknown
How different is this Jason Garrett-coached Dallas Cowboys team from teams that have preceded it? Perhaps, as the Cowboys have dragged themselves to win in two very "lose-able" scenarios these last 5 days, we have had some light shed on that interrogative.

There are certainly many similarities to the Wade Phillips' teams that have come before it. Mistakes are a bit too plentiful. Talent is a bit too scarce. Turnovers make things more difficult than they should be. Stops at the moment of truth are not always around. Heck, even the go-to move of the last decade of Cowboys football - 12 men on the field - is alive and well.

This is not a team that is going to threaten the 1972 Dolphins in the quest for football perfection without a substantial facelift in many areas.

But, in the afterglow of the 20-19 win over the 2011 Dolphins yesterday at Cowboys Stadium, Dallas appears to have discovered something that didn't live in Dallas last season.

Guts.

For it was guts that helped the Cowboys escape Washington with a much-needed victory on Sunday when things were conspiring against them. That was a very dangerous game that was on the brink of defeat for much of the afternoon. The defense caved, the running game stayed home, and it was a gritty and gutty effort from Tony Romo that rescued the victory from the jaws of defeat with big-time moments and big-time throws.

And then, on a short week of work where soreness was present as well as an opponent that did not offer much familiarity, the Cowboys ground their way to another ugly win that required all 60 minutes to take the final lead. There were several opportunities to lose the game and more than a few Cowboys' loyalists already allowed themselves to accept the outcome, but once again the common denominator that seemed to save their skins was actually inside their skin.

Guts.

A quick scan of the game log of the 2011 season for Romo will reveal that Thanksgiving was one of his worst statistical performances of the year. It would be foolish to fight this sentiment based on a 1st half that included 2 interceptions and 2 punts in the first 4 drives of the game. A drop here, an under-thrown pass there, and before long the Cowboys offense had once again found themselves an unproductive bunch with a 4th Quarter deficit of 16-10. Surely, it is slightly ironic that a similar offensive performance on Sunday yielded a similar deficit (17-10) after 3 quarters on Sunday.

But, the 9th drive of the game was the kind of drive that will hopefully allow some of his biggest critics (Cowboys fans) to see that he is having one of his best seasons of a very strong career. Time after time on that drive he either was decked by a Miami blitzer or nearly avoided being decked by a Miami blitzer. And each time - whether being decked or not - he delivered a great throw to a Cowboys receiver to keep the drive alive. Bennett. Witten. Murray. Robinson. Robinson again. Witten again. And finally, his finest play of the drive that should be dropped in a time capsule, Laurent Robinson in the back corner of the end zone for the Touchdown. It was a drive of sheer guts. A QB who has dabbled in injury for much of the last two seasons throwing caution and good health to the wind and taking some major shots to make some major plays.

Of course, that would not be enough to find a victory at 17-16. Instead, the defense had a big stand nullified when a DeMarcus Ware sack was cancelled out by a Abram Elam holding penalty. Momentum was lost and the Dolphins offense gained in confidence and marched down the field. After a Anthony Fasano reception and a pointless Frank Walker penalty for hitting out of bounds, the Cowboys faced a situation where the Dolphins had 1st and goal from the 3 yard line. Cave in here, and the Cowboys chances would reduce quite a bit.

But, they didn't. They held the Dolphins out of the end zone and gutted their way to only conceding the 3 points. Still down, 19-17, but still alive.

The teams traded possessions and that left the Cowboys with 1 last chance and the ball at their own 36 after Dez Bryant showed the Cowboys a return could turn into something marginally exciting again.

From there, Dallas had a "get it done or lose" situation. 2:59 to go. Must get at least a field goal and you would sure like to not leave the Dolphins any time to counter.

And that is where the guts of Tony Romo, and the guts of both his new sidekick, DeMarco Murray, and his old sidekick, Jason Witten marched the ball right down the field. Murray, like Romo, will not have the type of gaudy numbers that were there a few weeks ago, but Murray's conviction when he is running the ball and his willingness to punish anyone that attempts to tackle him is a thing of beauty right now. He had a very large impact on this contest. As the last of their 179 seconds ticked off the clock, Dan Bailey hit his 26th straight field goal from short range and the Cowboys won another game in which one can either take the victory and breath a sigh of relief or they can take the next 10 days to list all of the ways the Cowboys need to get better.

In 2010, we saw the Cowboys lose a lot of games when it came down to a showdown of guts. The first team to cry "uncle" would lose and the Cowboys "uncled" their way to a 1-7 start that saw Wade Phillips fired. There seemed to be almost no guts on this team when Jacksonville were humiliating them on their own turf. The next week, they seemed to care even less at Green Bay. It was a sad display that made you wonder if those players were fit to wear the uniform.

I don't necessarily suggest Jason Garrett is coaching strategies based on "guts", but I do feel like his QB and other vital members of this squad have decided to not allow this team to cave in and accept defeat. Sometimes, Romo knows he must make a play at the moment of truth or the team will lose. This team puts a ton on the QB, and while everyone seems to discuss the Jets and Lions games, I would like to counter that with those wins against the 49ers, Redskins, Redskins (again), and now the Dolphins. The Cowboys simply do not win any of those 4 games if Romo is not making the plays. He didn't make them all. Just the ones that mattered to the outcome of the contest.

Romo showed guts. The defense made a stand. Murray never quit on a single run.

So, you can fixate on the issues that are still around on this team, for there are more than a few. But after these last two games, I think it is notable to point out that this team has something that has been missing around here for a while.

Resolve. Fortitude. Guts.

Those characteristics can go a long way down the stretch in the NFL.
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Morning After, Tony Romo | No comments

Monday, 21 November 2011

The Morning After: Cowboys 27, Redskins 24

Posted on 06:15 by Unknown
Last week, Jason Witten spoke with superlatives dripping after the dismantling of Buffalo when asked about his Quarterback's performance: "Probably the best game I’ve seen him play where he’s just picking them apart," were his exact words in describing a near-perfect day from Tony Romo.

One would guess that there is a new "best" award to be distributed this week. As in, best performance by a QB in the 4th Quarter and Overtime to do everything he could to drag his team to a victory and then almost single-handidly prevent that victory in classic fashion. That award may sound a bit wordy, so elaboration is certainly necessary.

The Cowboys needed a win in Washington on Sunday in the worst way. If things worked out as the day went on (and they did) then Dallas could sit in 1st place in the NFC East by simply beating a team that hadn't led in a game in 49 days.

But, this team happens to be the Redskins, and if anyone has been paying attention for the last 50 years, they would know that wins against even the most putrid of Washington teams is never as easy as it seems it will be on paper. It is the ultimate true definition of "throw the records out the window when these two teams play". Crazy things happen and at least that stayed true to form in the latest meeting.

Dallas took an early lead, but due to careful play calling, poor special teams, and a shift in momentum that is tough to stop, the Cowboys entered the 4th Quarter down 7 points and seeing their season drifting away from them.

And that is when Tony Romo started making throws that would save the day. It was not his best day and it did not flirt with a perfect QB rating, but with 15 minutes to go and a crucial game on the line, there is no question that #9 was the catalyst in an amazing escape that required some high-stakes 3rd Down throws.

Here are the details:

Crucial Throw #1: 3rd and Goal from the 7 yard line, down 17-10 with 14:48 to play in the game. It is very important that the Cowboys get 7 points here and the only it is going to happen is if Romo keeps the play alive. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan are closing in fast around the edge and Romo must step up and then slide to his left. Romo is trying to find Dez Bryant on the left, but the Redskins have him bracketed with 2 defenders, causing Romo to look elsewhere. He holds the ball an unheard of 4.7 seconds to wait for Laurent Robinson to drag across the field and to pop open for a split second. If he leads Robinson, the pass won't work because Robinson will get blown up, so he places it on the back shoulder of a cross route. Perfect ball placement for a Touchdown. 17-17.

Crucial Throw #2: 17-17, 3rd and 8 from the Cowboys' 14-yard line with 10:22 left in the 4th Quarter. Cowboys elect to use a 7-man protection here, meaning that Jason Witten will not be out in a route. Instead, with Robinson and Bryant out wide, the Redskins are using 2-deep to double both players on the sidelines. This leaves Kevin Ogletree against Kevin Barnes in the slot on the left as Romo's only viable option. It takes 3.5 seconds this time for Ogletree to get past the sticks and open, but Romo puts a throw right on him and he is wrestled down at the 26 after a 12 yard gain and a 1st Down.

Crucial Throw #3: Another 3rd and 8, later in the same drive with 9:01 to play. This time, the Cowboys have "S12" personnel on with 2 TE, 2 WR. This personnel grouping allows Witten to go into a route and asks John Phillips to stay back and protect to the right of Romo in shotgun where he can assist rookie Tyron Smith with Kerrigan. This play is just amazing as again Romo feels the rush of Orakpo as he knows Doug Free has no help at left tackle. Once he spins to the outside of Orakpo, there is nothing Free can do to help without holding, so Romo knows he is just buying a bit more time before he will get hit. This maneuver requires Witten to improvise across the field into an opening and Romo finds him with a perfect throw that travels from the Dallas 32 to the Washington 35 where it finds Witten in stride. Witten finishes the play by beating DeAngelo Hall to the endzone and the Cowboys take a 24-17 lead on a 59-yard improvisation. It only happens because Romo stays alive for another 4.7 seconds and then makes a perfect throw while fading to his left. It would have to be considered one of the best single plays of his career.

Crucial Throw #4: The fact that he had the opportunity to make this final throw is due to the Redskins missing a 52-yard FG in overtime. But, that happened, and so now the Cowboys had a chance to still find a victory. But, in overtime, they may not get many chances, and now it is 3rd and 15 from the Redskins' 49-yard line. A punt is near certain as the Cowboys rate of conversion on 3rd and 10+ was 6 for 35 (17%). They were 1-12 (8%) on 3rd and 15+, but the lone conversion, ironically enough, was a 3rd and 21 prayer to Dez Bryant against DeAngelo Hall back in Week 3. Here is 3rd and 15, and again the play is made possible because Romo is moving in the pocket elusively for 3.4 seconds. 5 Redskins are rushing and Stephen Bowen nearly gets there, but Romo works away, again to his left. Bryant breaks off his route and improvises to the sideline which leaves Hall in his dust. Romo squares and hits Dez past the chains at the Redskins 31 and then Bryant drags Hall to the 23. The game is now the Cowboys to be lost after an amazing 3rd and long conversion.

It would be disingenuous to not finish the story of the win in Washington. As the Cowboys often do, they flirted with disaster as Dan Bailey came on to attempt a game-winning 39 yard Field Goal a few minutes after Bryant's big catch. For reasons that apparently include the angle of Mat McBriar's ankle when he holds, Romo is still being asked to hold on Bailey's kicks. And, in the NFL overtime rules, each team gets 2 timeouts in the extra session - not 3. This is an important thing to know if you are Tony Romo. After making 4 gigantic throws to put the team in this position, he nearly wrote another chapter in his life-story about agonizing mistakes at the moment of truth. NFL Rule 4, Section 5, Article 1, Item 4 in the NFL Rulebook tells us that any team calling a timeout it doesn't have will be charged with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and lose 15 yards. 39 yard field goals are money for Dan Bailey, but the Cowboys would not let him try a 54-yarder, most likely.

And, judging by the result of the 39-yarder, a good kick - barely - we know that this would have likely been the difference between winning and losing (or at least, tying). But, thankfully, the Redskins were also trying to call a timeout to practice their "ice the kicker" ritual, and Romo and the Cowboys were off the hook.

(Edit 11/21 at 4:05 pm): On Monday, the league cleared up the scenario with a clarification on the ruling of what might have happened: "Officials would not have granted Tony Romo a time out. They are instructed to ignore the request when a team has no time outs." This renders my speculation on what might have been irrelevant as was discussion on whether this would have been ruled a 5-yard delay of game or a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct.

But, make no mistake. This game isn't won without superior QB play in the 4th Quarter and Overtime. Not typical throws that should be made, but many high-stakes 3rd Down throws that you just thank Romo for converting. The Cowboys answered a gut check with a crucial win and their QB dragged them to victory.

The game itself wasn't pretty, but those 4 throws should certainly answer charges about his clutch ability with some exhibits for the other side of the debate.

Many things went wrong on Sunday, but the quarterback was there to save the day.
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Morning After, Tony Romo | No comments

Friday, 18 November 2011

Redskins Verify The Importance of Romo

Posted on 06:35 by Unknown
Sometimes, in order to appreciate what you have in life, you simply have to look at the circumstances that others deal with on a constant basis.

As humans, we are able with great ease to check those more fortunate than us and allow jealousy to build up as we see the bigger and nicer house or car and feel that our possessions do not compare. Seldom, do we look in the other direction to concede that just about everyone on the planet would love to change places with us. That helps us appreciate what we have, but it is something that nobody ever enjoys doing.

Such is life in the NFL. When we look at the quarterback of our team - in this case, Dallas' QB Tony Romo - many of the diehards of the organization will spend time comparing him to legendary Cowboys of the past (Aikman, Staubach) or legendary QBs of the present around the league (Manning, Brady). The very best to ever play the position are impossible for almost anyone to measure against. Our memories remind us of their victories and great moments and time erased any and all shortcomings. They are perfect, and we want to measure a man against perfection to see that he is not there. This is the equivalent of taking the family through Highland Park to see all of the houses that you will never be able to afford.

It is not a complete waste of time to do this, as the object of the game is to win and to figure out how to add to the Cowboys trophy case. Part of the ongoing battle is to constantly evaluate and to strive for excellence. But, to be realistic, one should always know where they sit in either direction. Constantly looking up at genius can make you forget how far you are from football poverty.

As the Cowboys travel to Washington to play the Redskins on Sunday, we are reminded that so much in football depends on the QB position. Washington teaches us this lesson on a year to year basis.

Let's start in 2006, the same year Tony Romo replaced Drew Bledsoe in midseason, Washington ran out 2nd year QB Jason Campbell to replace veteran QB Mark Brunell. Campbell was taken with the 25th pick in the 2005 draft, 1 pick after Green Bay snagged Aaron Rodgers. One can only wonder what Washington would have done if Rodgers had made it one more pick down the board.

With young Campbell, the Redskins believed they had finally filled the QB vacancy. Since Mark Rypien, the Skins had never found the permanent holder of the position. Heath Shuler, Gus Frerotte, Trent Green, Brad Johnson, Tony Banks, Trent Ramsey, and Brunell had all had shots at the job for the long term, and nobody held down the spot for any length of time.

But in 4 years as the Redskins starter, Campbell never won more games than he lost in a season. 2006: 2-5, 2007: 6-7, 2008: 8-8, and 2009: 4-12. Todd Collins actually rallied the troops in 2007 to get into the playoffs, and Campbell proved to never fully possess anything above mediocre.

By the end of 2009, the Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell era in Washington had run its 2-year course and it was time to reload with Mike Shanahan. The Redskins have now have won 9 of 27 games under Shanahan - thanks in no small part again to mediocre QB play. Donovan McNabb has started 13 games, Rex Grossman 9, and John Beck 3.

During that stretch, the Redskins quarterback position has combined for a QB rating of 74.5, with 29 TD passes against 34 interceptions.

It has been 20 years since Mark Rypien won the Super Bowl MVP for the 1991 season and was a strong candidate for the full season MVP. Since that time, the Redskins have not had a single season with a 90 passer rating. Not one.

Meanwhile, here is Tony Romo. He is having the best passing season of his career according to the passer rating (97.7). But, on a year by year basis since he has been the Cowboys starter, Romo has put up these ratings: 95.1, 97.4, 91.4, 97.6, 94.9, and now 97.7.

A 90 QB rating is the benchmark for excellence. About 8-10 QBs a year have a rating at or above 90. Since 2006, do you know how many QBs can boast a QB rating of over 90 each year? Exactly 2. Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. Obviously, that number is about to shrink to 1 with Manning sitting out the year with injury.

Now, before I am reminded that Manning also has the Super Bowl ring that is so badly desired around these parts for the Cowboys, let me share one more number: 144. 144 starts for Peyton Manning to get to a Super Bowl ring. Not everyone waits that long, but since some wait longer (John Elway, 219), it is fair to say that Romo with 71 starts entering Sunday's action still has a chance.

Sure, if you were smart, you would rate Drew Brees, Rodgers, Tom Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger and perhaps 1 or 2 others in front of Romo with great certainty. You would also concede that Eli Manning has a ring and therefore bragging rights despite his flaws and lack of consistency.

But, I think you would also glance at the 20 or so spots around the league that would be thrilled to have the level of QB play Dallas has enjoyed since Romo was installed as starter. 44-26 as a starter in those 70 starts means that the Cowboys are almost always in the playoff mix when he at the helm.

He does have flaws - there is no doubt - and you can find better QBs when you look around the league. But, I hope when you are driving through the nice neighborhoods looking at the QBs in New England and Green Bay, you are also being fair to your own situation by taking a turn down the roads in Washington, Seattle, St Louis, and for goodness sakes, I hope you were able to catch a bit of Broncos and the Jets last night.

The Cowboys should easily dispatch of Washington on Sunday, with perhaps the biggest reason being that the Redskins are awful at the QB position. And the reality is they have been awful for years. During that time they have tried several coaches - with at least a few of them being labeled as "offensive geniuses" - as well as elite play at many positions on the field. But, the Skins lacked quality at QB, the most important spot on the field.

Dallas shows us that QB is the most important spot, but not the only spot for a team to go from a winning team to a champion. The talk shows and message boards can say whatever they want, but there is more to winning football than whether Romo plays golf in April.

Since 2006, the year Romo and Campbell were both named starters with their respective teams, the Cowboys (53-36) have won 18 more games than the Redskins (35-54). Neither team has won Super Bowls, so if that impossible standard is the only way to appease the masses, both organizations need a QB. But, anyone with a fair and balanced perspective on current events in all 32 organizations in the NFL would easily concede that the Cowboys are receiving above average QB play.

Dallas may never win a Super Bowl during Romo's career. If you have a trade ready for Brady or Rodgers, I would tell you to take it. Otherwise, you should be willing to admit that Romo is strong to quite strong at the position. Romo may end up being a solid QB with a solid career, but never the Hall of Fame resume that he is compared to in this city. But, a quick look at the data will reveal that if that is the case, and he never wins it all, it might have less to do with the QB position that you think.

The grass is not always greener. Washington proves that every year.
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Posted in Cowboys 2011, FSSW, Tony Romo | No comments
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