Cowboys Mailbag - June 3

It seems like a very poor idea to go 4 weeks between mailbags, but for some reason it happened.  In the meantime, I did game-film breakdowns of the 7 new Cowboys draft picks, and if you haven't read all of them, here are the links for each one while we proceed with your actual emails.

Round 1: Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin

Round 2: Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego State

Round 3: Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor

Round 3: JJ Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern

Round 4: BW Webb, CB, William And Mary

Round 5: Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State

Round 6: DeVonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina

Just click on any name from above, and you will be taken directly to his profile and you will get the full breakdown of each player.  It is something I like to do far more than looking at guys in OTA's, because I have certainly learned over the years that there is no greater deceiver in this game than the abilities of a player in shorts and no contact.  Only when the bullets are truly flying will we know what these guys can do.  And that won't be revealed until September, unless we look backward to the games that they have already starred in.

Now, with that project done, it is time to move on to strategic studies of the squad as we review 2012 in depth and prepare for 2013 and the new things we will see this fall.  That will begin later this week with a long discussion about "12 Personnel" by the numbers in a few days.

But, for now, let's get some email discussions covered for today:

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Bob, 

How did you like the Cowboys draft board going public again?  Are they serious?  2 times it happens in 4 drafts?  What is more Jerry Jones Cowboys than that?

Devin

Thanks, Devin.  Hopefully, by now, everyone has had a chance to study the great work that Blogging the Boys did late last week as they took pictures released by the Cowboys themselves of Jerry standing in front of his own draft board and piecing the entire board together.  It is almost something that seems like fiction - unless you realize they did this exact same thing back in April of 2010 when DallasCowboys.com released photos of, you guessed it, Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips standing in front of their draft board in the war room.  

Now, understand that this is a big deal to the people that spend all year building these files on each player.  I am not sure what you or I can do with this information, but when the NFL has 32 teams that are running fully classified intelligence departments so that they can outwit each-other in pursuit of the best 53 players each team can assemble, it becomes a rather large obstacle if the competition knows your secrets, but you don't know theirs.

Think about the last week of camp when teams are shuffling and trying to fill out their lineups and a team wants to trade with the Cowboys a player they would otherwise cut.  Now, they know if the Cowboys really liked the player on draft day and can demand a higher price from Dallas than from another team because they have seen the information.  Again, this isn't the biggest issue ever, but if a trade costs you a 6th rounder, instead of a 7th rounder because of this act of carelessness and silliness, then it is too much.

Someone asked me this week what we are missing here.  As in, there is no way this "accidentally" happens twice in 4 drafts when we are hard pressed to find any of the other 31 teams making this same mistake even once.  His premise was that maybe Jerry is doing this on purpose.  As in, Jerry wants to prove that he followed his board and had a great draft as he nailed 3 2nd round picks.  If someone had told me that the Cowboys were going to trade back and get 3 2nd rounders in this draft, I would have said that is a great idea and that this is how you build your roster quickly and effectively.  But, is public validation really his goal these days?  He almost seems like he feels quite the opposite; that it is his team and he will do whatever he wants.

Another person asked me if this is part of his feud with his scouts.  It is clear that some in the scouting department are tired of working for 12 months to stack the players as they firmly believe, only to be over-ruled at the alter by a new assistant coach, an old friend of Jerry's, or Jerry himself.  Now, they seem to be much more likely to speak up (off the record) and defend the idea that the #5 pick on their entire board fell right to them at #18 and they still wouldn't take him.  When that is the case, you can see the scouts feel that they are filling out their reports with thorough dedication for no reason whatsoever.  

In the end, I guess I have no idea how this could have happened twice.  Could the website staff be that unaware of the pictures they are making public have important proprietary information that should be protected for the betterment of the organization?  If you don't think this is a big deal, ask someone in the personnel department and watch their pulse race.  I also have no idea what the ramifications are other than people all over the league now examining the Cowboys thinking on each player and running stories like, "Do the Cowboys think we had a good draft?"  By the way, those stories are everywhere because it is rather uncommon for this to happen - let alone, twice.

But, to answer Devin's question: What is more Jerry Jones-Cowboys than that?  Sadly, nothing.

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Sturm-

How much cap room do we have now in 2013 and what are we planning to do with it?

Steve

Basically, according to the guys at Overthecap.com, the Cowboys presently sit at almost $10m under the cap in 2013 with the Marcus Spears money now moved (since we are after June 1).  

Once you get the rookies squared away and signed - which could be done for half of that amount or less, than there is actually enough money to get one more significant piece of business done.  However, to those who dream of going to get another veteran player on the street who can really help this thing this season, we must remind you that there are some significant players coming due very soon who are going to need to get paid a lot of money.  The most imposing bills that are coming quickly will be the Dez Bryant and Tyron Smith extensions, although those can be put off for at least 1 more season.  

I don't know if you have thought those 2 deals out, but trust me, both of them will be staggering, unless something unforeseen happens.  Dez is appearing to be nearing superstar status and Tyron will be a UFA left tackle at the age of 24 who has started every game of his career and has played very well.  I don't think you need to be convinced the going rate for those types of players.  

Not on the same level of "insane cash" will be DeMarco Murray (most likely) and Sean Lee who is finishing his rookie contract for $600k this fall.  And he is the one who most expect will have a deal before training camp in August.

I will grant you that it would first be nice to see that Lee can play 16 games in a season with his style and his body, given his inability to make it through a year in Dallas so far and frankly, less than perfect health at Penn State, too.  But, his quality and his overall total package is that of a player that the Cowboys want right in the center of their plans through his prime.  

So, what would it cost to get Lee done for the next 5 or 6 years if that deal is being worked on right now?

Well, there are a few easy comparable from that same 2010 draft that netted the Cowboys Sean Lee.  At pick #47, Arizona took Daryl Washington from TCU to play linebacker out in the desert.  And, before the 2012 season, they signed Washington to a 6-year, $32 million extension that included a bonus of $5 million up front and another bonus of $10 million after 2013 that is not guaranteed, but virtually guaranteed (barring another suspension).

Then, a player that lined up next to Sean Lee at Penn State, but slid to #91 was San Francisco's Navarro Bowman.  He is also noted as another 1st round grade by the Cowboys if you go back to that leaked board from above, and has played right to the Pro Bowl.  Bowman also signed a deal before the 2012 season that dwarfed the Washington deal in guaranteed money, when he signed a 7-year, $46.3 million deal - with over $25m guaranteed.

Why is there such a difference in those two deals?  I am not positive, other than Bowman had already broken out before he signed and that Washington could have made more if he hadn't signed before his 2012 season where he was spectacular.  

So, does Sean Lee fit between those two?  That isn't actually the question.  The question is that if he put up a big 2013, how much would he make on the open market (which he would likely never get to as the Cowboys still have the protection of the franchise tag).  But, with all of the deals on the horizon for this new generation of young players, they would be wise to get Lee done to a cap friendly deal as soon as they can so they can put a little of this surplus in 2013 to work for them against the future.

Send me your questions for future mailbags at Sturm1310@me.com 

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Do Draft Grades Mean Anything?

The short answer is yes.

Hello, sports fans. TC Fleming here. Football Outsiders released their annual Draft Report Card Report this week. They've been doing those since 2004. Theirs is an interesting study. They look at eight respected national writers who give out draft grades and average those to generate a consensus on each team's draft. You can see the logic: one guy saying 'I think this Packers draft class stinks" means essentially nothing. But taking eight people who have spent a lot of time getting familiar with these prospects and seeing if their collective wisdom can tell us something, that has possibilities.

I was honestly surprised they hadn't looked into how these draft grades correlate to the production of the draft classes after the fact. I had some time, so I checked into it.

To measure the production of those draft classes, I used the Approximate Value (AV) stat from Pro Football Reference. It's a stat trying to provide one uniform scale to measure performance across all positions, so it's going to have its flaws (eg ranking Joseph Addai as the 10th-best player in the 2006 draft). It fits our purposes though. We're just looking for a wide-angle look at whether or not teams drafted players that contributed to their team.

Pro Football Reference has an exceptionally handy page on each draft where they list the AV that each player accumulated while with the team that drafted. I pasted those into Excel and added up the totals for each draft for each team. I decided to use only the 2005 through 2009 drafts. Anything more recent than that and I was afraid we'd be dealing with too many guys on whom the book is still out.

While I was compiling this list of AV totals for each team's draft classes, I noticed that there was a large gap between the totals from 2005 and the totals from 2009. That makes sense, since the 2005 players have had more opportunities to accumulate value. I was afraid this would add another variable and artificially disrupt the correlation factor. So I graded on a curve. I added together the total AV for each year's entire draft, averaged those numbers together, divided that average by the total AV for each year's draft and then multiplied the team totals by that factor.

In the end, the Approximate Value for a team's draft showed a correlation of about .36. It's on a scale of zero to one where zero is no relation and one is a direct relation. So collectively, draft experts know something. It's better than throwing darts. Draft grades don't say a lot, but you can't brush them off either.

What does this mean for the Cowboys? Well, they ranked dead last in this year's report. In the five years that I studied, the lowest-ranked team had a below-average AV total four times. In the lone outlier, Tennessee was docked by most experts for over-drafting a small school running back with their first pick, but Chris Johnson proved effective enough to make it a fairly valuable class. In every other instance, the experts were more or less right to say those classes were lackluster. The average draft class in this study produced 83 points of Approximate Value. If you look only at classes that experts ranked in the bottom five, that average drops to 59. Ranking so low does mean something. When experts scoff at your drafting, there is legitimate cause for concern. The lowest-ranked class rarely turns out to actually be the worst class, but it almost always turns out to be a bad class.

One bit of trivia: the Cowboys own both the highest and lowest for AV totals for a single draft class. The 2005 class that produced five regular starters (DeMarcus Ware, Marcus Spears, Chris Canty, Marion Barber and Jay Ratliff) is the most productive on record. And looking through these, I was surprised at how few regular starters teams pick up in a single draft class. When you consider that there are 22 starters for each game and that football careers are so short, I would figure that there would be a team every year that found five starters in one class. Not the case. The 2009 class, on the other hand, famously produced nothing of value. The AV total for 2009 was 15. That is the lowest AV total in this study, but I would argue it's not the worst draft class. The Lions in 2005 had a much better selection of picks than the '09 Cowboys and produced only 18 AV points. That was the year they picked an out-of-football Mike Williams who was cut after two seasons. Shaun Cody was their second rounder, and he's become a decent player with Houston. However, he started just 12 games in four years while playing on some really bad teams. So I'd call that Cowboys '09 class the second-worst.

Jake and I talked about this little project on our podcast if you'd like to hear a little more.

And in the interest of showing my work, here's the spreadsheet I put together.

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NFL Draft 2013: Day 1 - Morning Thoughts

It is finally draft day 2013.  No more study time on players who might be on the Cowboys radar and no more time for long debates as to what they need or what they should do.  Those of us who want to know these players before the bias of ownership kicks in have done all that we can do, and tonight, the landscape of the NFL can be altered yet again.

From a Cowboys perspective, there are a few things we just don't really have a feel for that is required to fully know the team's plans.  For instance, there is that issue of using the cap space that was generated from the restructure of Tony Romo' contract to sign a veteran offensive lineman who might instantly be in their plans.  Eric Winston and Tyson Clabo have both been long time starters at right tackle in the league and both are on the street today, with links to the Cowboys in the media.

I believe that Tyson Clabo is the player they like better but he might have more leverage to get a multi-year deal elsewhere, and that is something Dallas would not be willing to do, most likely.  But, since we have no idea whether there is certainty in their interest in Clabo, we cannot take tackle off their board of needs as tonight approaches.  DJ Fluker would be a very strong right tackle prospect if they went the young route, but again, we don't know how things are going in free agency for the team now that the league has really quieted down in that department.

But, as we look at the needs on draft day:  Guard, Tackle, Defensive Tackle, Safety are the major ones, with depth needed at Wide Receiver, Running Back, Tight End, and Defensive End later on - we can see tackle is about the only one that they might be able to find a veteran on a 1-year deal if they are against bringing Doug Free back at a reduced rate.  And I suppose we shouldn't rule out the idea that Free at $3m in 2013 is something they would consider if he would agree to a pay cut from $7m.  His leverage is minimal given that finding a starting job or a reasonable pay day after June 1 is nearly impossible for a guy with low stock.  I imagine staying here for lowered cash and only having to defeat Jeremy Parnell for RT in camp is his best option.  Whether the Cowboys think so remains to be seen.

But, if we take tackle off the board, then we look at the remaining 3 spots of need:  Guard (M Bernadeau appears to be a backup), DT (Ratliff aging and Josh Brent gone), and Safety (always need that) are the 3 real ideas at pick #18.  If you build your board around that, then you are not saying you only consider players from those same positions, but rather, if there is a similar grade on players, you use that to break any close calls.  Of course, if the best player on your board by a mile is someone like Tavon Austin, then you have to use your brain.  But, you are looking to fill long-time needs, too. And that is why Guard, Defensive Tackle, and Safety are high on my plans for the early picks.

Now, of those 3, you ask where the best prospects are and what can be accomplished in the 2nd or 3rd round.  That is where we consider that there is major depth at safety, with 8 or 9 reasonable options there, albeit the quality does drop after Kenny Vaccaro, Jonathan Cyprien, and Eric Reid.  But, with another 5 or so good looking safeties, I am not interested in one at #18.  One exception would be dropping in the 1st round to pick up an additional 2nd or 3rd round.  If I sit at #25 or so, I might think safety there.

That leaves Guard and DT for #18.  It will come down to what falls to you.  I think the Cowboys love both guards with Cooper being their preference.  His mobility and perfect form for a zone blocking scheme gives him the edge on Warmack, but I really believe they would be delighted either way.   Personally, I prefer Warmack and his brute strength more, but I do wonder if he fits that scheme to perfection.  On the other hand, I don't like the idea of forcing a scheme without considering your personnel.  I think you have to look at your group and design around that.  But that conversation is for a different day.

As for Defensive tackle, I think the Cowboys think 4 are worth #18.  That includes Star Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Sheldon Richardson, and Sylvester Williams.  Rumors exist that they like Floyd the most, which I will admit is a bit peculiar to me.  I actually like him about the 4th most of the 4, with Lotulelei, Richardson, and Williams (in that order) in front of him.  But, clearly, I am just a guy with a blog and a DVD player.  They have visited with the players, investigated their lives, done medicals, and talked to coaches.  Always trust personnel departments over bloggers.

Based on the 9 players we tried to break down on this blog, here is my "board" for #18:


1. Chance Warmack - Report Here
2. Jonathan Cooper - Report Here
3. Star Lotulelei - Report Here
4. Sheldon Richardson - Report Here
5. Sylvester Williams - Report Here
6. Tavon Austin - Report Here
7. Sharrif Floyd - Report Here
8. Kenny Vaccaro - Report Here
9. DJ Fluker - Report Here


I do think that is how I would stack them and if they follow this perfectly, I would be fine with even Fluker at #18.  They will get a solid contributor and an instant starter from all 9 of these players, I believe.  But, as I said before, if Austin, Vaccaro, or Fluker are their best options, I hope they would try to figure out a way to move back and pick up another top #100 pick to add to their haul.  Top #100 picks traditionally should contribute in a big way right off the bus and that is what the Cowboys really need.  If they can leave the draft with 4 of the top #100 instead of 3, they should effort to do so.

I should also point out that there has been plenty of talk this week about the TE from Notre Dame, Tyler Eifert.  I concede that he is the best tight end in this draft, but I don't care for that selection here.  I would rank him behind all 9 of the players above and hope that this is smoke the Cowboys are generating to get someone to snag him above them, allowing their actual targets to fall to them.  He is a prospect that is certainly better than James Hanna, but, his strengths and weaknesses seem similar to Hanna, aside from speed.  Hanna ran 4.45 last year, Eifert is a 4.66 this year.  Jason Witten has taught us that 40-time isn't everything, but I don't see Eifert to be a generational tight end that I would drop everything to address.  But, they don't ask me.

Here are their current draft positions:

Round	Pick	Overall
Rd 1	#18	#18
Rd 2	#17	#47
Rd 3	#18	#80
Rd 4	#17	#114
Rd 5	#18	#151
Rd 6	#17	#185
Rd 7	-----	Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook

They have 6 picks and plenty of places to put these guys.  Enough talk.  Time to fill in the gaps.  

Tonight is Round 1.  Let's get to it already.

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Draft Hindsight #1: Tyron over JJ Watt

This is the time of year where we do 2 things as football fans:  1) we prepare for the Super Bowl and  2) we ponder the current roster of our favorite squad; what we need and what decisions did we make that put us in this position that we are not playing this weekend.

The 2nd objective is what will keep me busy in this space for much of the next 3 months.  Several times a week, I want to make sure that we are on top of the Cowboys current situation, but I also want to make sure that we give enough time to looking over the past and learn what can be learned as fans and media so that our opinions are informed.

So, to do that, I think it would be enjoyable to look at some of the moments in the draft past and evaluate whether the Cowboys got the pick right or not.

"Hindsight is 20/20" is what many of you say whenever we go into a study like this as a way to express your feelings about 2nd guessing.  The answer to that is, "of course, it is".  But, we are choosing to do this anyway.  So, if your default observation is going to be that hindsight is 20/20, then don't waste your time with these conversations - it is clearly too much for you to handle.

Hindsight is not 20/20 until the careers are over.  So, we don't know the outcome of some of these picks, but rather we are checking in during this present tense to see how the picks went.  And while doing this, we must remember that for us, we can chalk everything up to hindsight.  The most studious of anyone reading this is that they might have watched 4 or 5 games of each player while in college.  But, if you are the Cowboys and are picking in the NFL draft, you have watched their every snap, you have met with them personally, and you have worked him out and evaluated him as a player and as a human.  You have met for hours about every scenario and have attempted to project each player 5 years down the road.

For us, it is a discussion on a blog or at a bar.  For these men, it can shape the very fortunes of their franchises for the next decade.  This is not a decision they made lightly or loosely.  They have to get these decisions right, especially on those extremely rare occasions where they are in the Top 10 of the draft.

So, if our conclusions are "hindsight is 20/20" as vindication for any wrong move, then we are letting our front office off the hook way to easily.  They must be able to project as well as possible and as well as their competition.

Very few picks are going to be as significant as the 1st one we pick off, but I thought we would start with the one that has dazzled many of you for the last 2 years.

2011 Draft - Pick #9 - Tyron Smith, Tackle, USC

In 2012, here is the entire list of starting NFL tackles that gave up fewer sacks than Tyron Smith:  Ryan Clady, Jeff Backus, Russell Okung, Matt Kalil, and D'Brickashaw Ferguson.

In 2012, according to Pro Football Focus, here is the entire list of starting tackles who graded out better at run blocking than Tyron Smith:  Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Duane Brown, Phil Loadholt, William Beatty and Andre Smith.

Tyron Smith is your starting left tackle.  He is one of those rare guys who rates very highly in run blocking (where he can be dominant) and pass protection where he gives up just 3 sacks in a year when the Cowboys pass the ball on most plays.  Entering his 3rd season in the NFL, what on earth could be your problem with any of that?

The 2011 draft - although extremely early in the game as we look at it in January of 2013 - appears to be a classic draft from a star power standpoint in the top half of the 1st round.  Cam Newton went with the 1st pick, Von Miller to Denver with pick #2, AJ Green went 4th to the Bengals, Patrick Peterson #5 to Arizona, Julio Jones was in that giant trade and was a Falcon at #6, and Aldon Smith from Missouri landed in San Francisco at #7.  Only Marcell Dareus in Buffalo, Jake Locker to Tennessee, and Blaine Gabbert to Jacksonville are the picks that are undetermined in the Top dozen - with a fair amount of question directed at Christian Ponder to Minnesota at #12.  After that, in the next 5 picks, Nick Fairley, Mike Pouncey, Ryan Kerrigan, and Nate Solder all jumped into the league and right on to the field for their teams.

The draft has actually gone very similar to what the masses thought when the draft started.  The studs would be packed up top, and then as we get to the back half of the 1st round, we would have a bunch of players that might be good, but all have some questions.  And, as pros, we are still waiting on Danny Watkins, James Carpenter, Gabe Carimi, and Derek Sherrod to all offer something on the offensive line.  Although there have been significant health issues with several of those names - which is part of the projection process in some cases.

But, the first 3 tackles to go off the board, Tyron Smith at #9, Solder at #17, and Anthony Castonzo at #22 have all jumped right onto the field and have all played very well in 2 seasons.  Whereas the next 4 OL (Watkins, Carpenter, Carimi, and Sherrod) to be taken have all disappointed.  Then, the 8th, Orlando Franklin, taken at pick #46 by Denver, has stepped right on to that Broncos line and played very well.  He was selected 6 picks after Bruce Carter.

On the defensive line, Dareus went very high to Buffalo, then Watt, then Robert Quinn (11 sacks in 2012) to St Louis, and Adrian Clayborn to Tampa (you may recall him destroying the Cowboys and then injurying his knee back in September), Cameron Jordan (8 sacks) to the Saints.  3-4 players, Corey Liuget in San Diego, Muhammad Wilkerson to New York, and Cameron Heyward to Pittsburgh have all had flashes of performance and Wilkerson and Liuget appear to be real studs moving forward.

Overall, a very interesting draft that I think could hinge on the Cowboys at #9.

Before the draft, it seemed that the Cowboys had locked in on 2 players that they loved and thought were going to be available at #9.  Smith and JJ Watt from Wisconsin.

I remember the discussion like it was yesterday with some people close to the scene:  There is no wrong answer here.  It is a play on "What is versus What could be".  That means, quite simply, that JJ Watt is seen as a very productive player who is a really hard worker and team leader.  But, Smith is the youngest player in the draft and could be a generational talent at left tackle.  He is good, but he could be amazingly great.

So, given that both positions were positions of extreme need, you are going to have to choose.  And whichever you don't choose, will likely have a void at that spot until you address it down the road.

At the time, I was completely sold that Smith was the right pick.  Especially given the Cowboys state of chaos at offensive line.  They knew that they had Doug Free, but otherwise, the cupboard was bare at tackle throughout the entire organization.  Meanwhile, they at least had replacement level defensive ends for the 3-4.  And, they treated that position as a very low-level priority in that scheme anyway, explaining to all who would listen that the job of the 3-4 DE is not to rack up stats.  Even though we know that this is not true in many places not named Dallas.

Offensive line and defensive line are, of course, extremely different from the perspective of what the public notices.  When your QB is getting tossed about and you cannot pick up a 1st Down because of your inferior OL, it is easy to see and point out.  However, when Igor Olshansky plays for several years without making a discernible impact, you don't discuss him because a defensive end can get lost in the dialogue for months at a time - until someone asks why he hasn't made a play, that is.

So, when discussing urgency, you can see that replacing Marc Colombo after Jason Babin destroyed him in 2010 was more urgent than replacing non-descript defensive ends in the 3-4.

Next, looking at each player extensively from a college game-tape perspective, it did seem that both were exceptional players - everyone seemed to agree they were both 2 of the best 15 players available in the draft.  The process becomes to determine which is more valuable to your franchise for the next decade.

Were we looking at finished products?  Absolutely not.  Smith was just a pup, and what made him great was that despite being so young and inexperienced, he was dripping with potential.

Watt, on the other hand, did not seem to be a guy with a much higher ceiling than he currently had.  He was very good on certain Saturdays, but in others, he was just ok.

Tyron Smith 2010



JJ Watt 2010 - Final college game vs TCU



In the end, this is a spot where the 2nd guessing of Jerry Jones and the scouting department is pretty difficult.  Sure, a re-draft today makes Watt the easy choice, but in that scenario, it is possible he shoots all the way up to the top 3-5.

What a draft it was for star power.  Pass rushers include Watt, Aldon Smith, and Von Miller.  Need a QB for the next decade?  Cam Newton or Coin Kaepernick join Andy Dalton and Blaine Gabbert/Jake Locker as options.   AJ Green or Julio Jones at WR?

But, the best offensive lineman might still be Tyron Smith.  And in several years we might say the same thing.

Is Watt a better player than Tyron Smith right now?  Absolutely.  Watt was given consideration for league MVP in many circles, whereas Tyron looks to be the Cowboys best offensive lineman and a real building block for the future.

Tyron is entering year 3 of a 4-year, $12.5m deal, which means he will hit free agency as a 4-year starter who is just 24 years old after 2014.  The Cowboys are going to have to make him one of the highest paid linemen in the NFL or they will lose him.  The same will be true in Houston with JJ Watt, who had a slightly lower deal, but that will change in the next 12 months I am sure.  The Texans are poised to break the bank on that face of the franchise.

There will be other editions of "Draft Hindsight" where we will find a verdict that is much harsher on Jones and company.  But, although this one will be considered a mistake some places, I would simply suggest that the Cowboys made a sound football decision that was necessary because of other mistakes along the way.

A more fortified roster can afford to take the "best player available", but the Cowboys always have enough holes in their 2-deep that they scramble every spring just to prepare their team for the fall schedule.

VERDICT:  While conceding that Watt is a better player today, the belief that the Cowboys found a left tackle who is a long-term solution and potentially elite at his position is still true.  If we believe that position scarcity is a consideration and that left tackle is a spot that most NFC teams desperately need, then it is quite difficult to get too harsh.  Tyron Smith may not be the most glamourous pick, but if one imagines the mess the offensive line would be in without him, it likely settles the debate.

HINDSIGHT GRADE (out of 10): A solid 8.  32 games into a career that could last 200, Smith is one of your most valuable assets on the roster.

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