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Showing posts with label Garrett 2013. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Garrett 2013. Show all posts

Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Decoding Callahan: Week 1 - New York Giants

Posted on 07:13 by Unknown
Before we get to the Giants win, a brief introduction:

For those of you new to this blog or this series or even this type of conversation, allow me to welcome you to Week 1 in what is now a 7-season series on tracking - with incredible detail - the Cowboys offense on a week-to-week basis.  In this Tuesday series, which is certainly not for everyone, we will try to turn over every stone and try to learn whatever we can learn about what the Cowboys like to do, try to do, and avoid doing.

And that is an exercise that is to replicate on some level what the Cowboys do every week.  There is this belief that you see what a coach truly believes by what his game plan looks like.  That is untrue.  His game-plan is not an idealistic view of the sport or his beliefs about deploying players in a certain system.  Rather, a game plan is a combination of your considering your strengths, your weaknesses, your opponent, and your situation, and decide what gives your side the best opportunity to win.  That should never be confused with what you want to do.  You may want to run the wishbone.  But, you don't have the personnel to do that.  You may want to run the zone read.  If only you had a guy like Colin Kaepernick.  You look at the pieces you have left on the chess board, then carefully consider your opponent's piece.  From that, you come up with a plan.  Sometimes, it is a good plan.  Sometimes, it is a plan that requires good fortune along the way.  But, it is, you believe, the best one you have available.  And that is what coaches do on Tuesday across the league.

During the week, they install the plan, using different days to install different elements (base offense, 3rd down package, red zone), and by game-time you have an idea of what you believe will work.  It changes dramatically from week to week, with everything connected, but evolving.  You put things on film to distract your opponents, sometimes.  You want them to waste valuable time preparing for you by working on stopping something you may never even run.  But, they must because they have to be prepared for what you might do.  And you, as an offensive coordinator, must be prepared to go after your opponent's weaknesses, but remain inside your strengths.  Not always easy.

So, if you continue down this road with us, we will look back at the last game from a number of angles, and try to dissect what they did well, what they did poorly, and what interests us on a level of innovation.  The Cowboys are moving from Jason Garrett to Bill Callahan - and so will we.  What has been called Decoding Garrett is now Decoding Callahan.  We know that it is still the Garrett offense, but there will be some adjustments.  We also know that the GM is committed to multiple tight ends being used on a regular basis and has instructed the offense to run accordingly.  So, we will spend time looking at that.

Again, this is digging deeper than most studies, so I understand if this is a lot of information.  But, if this interests you on some level, stick with it, and it will start to make more sense as the weeks go on.

And now, on to the Giants game.

The Cowboys entered this game with a very unsettled idea of what their offensive line was going to look like.  They knew their left tackle and center were locked down in Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick, but even there, Frederick was playing his very first NFL game.  Usually, your center's first NFL action would frighten a team a bit, but he has been so solid and the rest of the line has been so chaotic that Frederick has actually been the last thing they have worried about.  It is almost like he he conducts himself as a 5 year veteran and seems to play like one, too.

But, who was going to play each guard position and right tackle was a game of musical chairs.  In the end, Ron Leary also made his NFL debut at left guard, Mackenzy Bernadeau was chosen to keep right guard warm for Brian Waters who is shaking off the retirement dust, and that pushed Doug Free back in front of Jermey Parnell at right tackle for the time being.

To make matters more unsettled, they would be facing a defensive front which has bullied them through the years and this time the New York Giants would not be at full strength with a recovering Jason Pierre Paul, but would still be treated with respect in game planning from the Cowboys.

As we look at the tactics and results, we see the Cowboys trying to make sure that all of their looks are based around the idea of using 2 and sometimes 3 Tight Ends.  The reasons for this "12" or "13" personnel looks are elaborated in greater detail in some of our past write-ups, but perhaps best demonstrated on the 2 touchdowns to Jason Witten during the game.  A proper TE, and we believe all 3 are pass catching threats (Escobar needs to prove it, Hanna needs to prove it again) is a matchup issue for LBs because of speed and DBs because of size.  On the 1st Touchdown, they tried to run a linebacker with him and the Cowboys made them pay.  Then, they switched to a smaller DB, and Romo fit it in a tight window and Witten used his size to make room.

The idea with this and just about any scheme is the same:  Make the defense make a choice.  And when they do, present them with proof that there is no right answer.  Either way, multiple tight ends can make you pay.  For much more on this concept, check out what I put here back in June.

In other news, the Cowboys ran out 2 ideas that we have not seen in our 6 years of data.  One is rather straight forward and uses the multiple tight end look.  It is called "S13" which is the same 1 RB, 3 TE, grouping, but for decades that has meant a short-yardage ground game exclusive battering ram.  But, the S means Shotgun, and the Cowboys don't intend on using S13 for running.  They know that defenses defend 13 personnel by bringing in an extra "big" or two (Linebackers) and take off a DB because you could run.  So, now you have your run defense on and the Cowboys use S13 to spread those big guys out and take advantage of them in 1-on-1 pass situations.  I love the concept, because if they stay small and play nickel, then you audible into a run play and you should be able to physically bully them in this game of cat and mouse.  Here is a look at it.


And again, remember that in 6 seasons, the Cowboys haven't done anything like this.  This is a new use of resources that only had 2 snaps on Sunday, but you can believe the Chiefs are asking how they will defend this.  And, the more Escobar and Hanna make plays, the bigger this can become.  If it is still just Witten, then this won't go anywhere.

The 2nd item that was noticeable on Sunday was the use of the pistol.  4 times, they rolled out this look:



Now, the pistol is the rage all around the league and I could not possibly describe it anything like what Chris Brown of Smart Football did last December, so if you want the entire breakdown, visit that.

But, it basically combines the good parts of the shotgun (your QB can still read the defense and see in pre snap while not requiring a major drop back) with the good parts of being under center (your running back is still moving forward/downhill with speed when he receives the ball).  Shotgun in the past required the RB to take the ball at almost a full stop and this made running - especially with power - a major issue.

Notice, that Murray is still 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage which is basically the same as when Romo is under center (perhaps a half yard difference).  They ran the pistol 4 times with Murray getting 3 carries, but you can absolutely believe that the Cowboys can develop this without exposing Romo to hits.  Detroit in Week 1 ran some very interesting pistol looks with Matt Stafford and I can assure you that Peyton Manning, Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers have no plans on running much option read.  But, they can use the alignment to do what they do best.

Data from Week 1 vs New York Giants:

Now we are into the portion of the post that we will visit each week with data to see what we can see.  The Cowboys had decent field position and obviously were the beneficiaries of some takeaways to aid that.  They did not accomplish much on 1st Down as we see that in 25 2nd down opportunities, they were on average 2nd and 9.16.  This is a byproduct of too many offensive line penalties again.

3rd Down was a little rough, too.  We want that number approaching 50% to feel good.



Run-Pass22-50
Starting Field PositionD 34
1st Down Run-Pass12-20
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go9.16
2nd Down Run-Pass9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go8.66
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass1-14
3rd Down Conversions5-15, 33%


PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim is back with us this year and he has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

The first thing that will jump out at anyone is how many times Romo threw the ball in the 1st half.  As you can see, other than the Witten TD down the seam, there was just nothing downfield.  The real theme from Sunday was that the Giants were dedicating "a man and a half" to Dez Bryant and forcing the Cowboys to look elsewhere because Bryant's normal downfield routes were going to be a tight squeeze.  So, you can force the ball into coverage (as Romo did once) or you can take underneath throws.  Look at all of the blue and see that almost none of his completions were more than 5 yards downfield - this also can be a way of helping your pass protection.  Don't hold the ball.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

In the 2nd half, he was hurt, he had the lead, and he threw more downfield - but no real success.  The one deeper blue line below was a deep-in route to Terrence Williams.

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)
And here we break out his primary target underneath, Miles Austin who played a ton in the slot.

Miles Austin Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)


Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

They said they wanted to run a lot of "12".  Well, 30 snaps if you combine 12 and S12, and 177 yards means that with that grouping they were able to find 5.9 yards a snap.  That is a very encouraging start against a defense that we think is decent.

PackagePlays RunYardsRunPass
11382-31-5
1218879-339-54
135233-112-12
21000-00-0
22150-01-5
23000-00-0
S013130-03-13
S02150-01-5
S1127784-1523-63
S1212904-238-67
S132140-02-14
Other000-00-0
Totals7232322-8550-238

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.


Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:



PackagePlaysYardsRunPassFD/TD
11000-00-00/0
12000-00-00/0
13000-00-00/0
21000-00-00/0
22150-01-51/0
23000-00-00/0
S012140-02-141/0
S02150-01-51/0
S1111331-810-251/0
S12000-00-00/0
Other000-00-00/0
Totals15571-814-494/0

And. one more feature.  How did NY Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell decide to rush the Cowboys.  We know the Giants love to generally just bring 4.  But, they got home a few times when they blitzed - partly because their 4 were not really bothering the Cowboys much.  As the game went on, the Giants were forced to bring more to get any pressure.  That is a very good sign, too.

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 49 pass rush/blitz situations:




Pass Rushers3 Rush4 Rush5 Rush6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)0100
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)0923
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)0410
Totals01433
















Pass Rushers3 Rush4 Rush5 Rush6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)0701
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)0200
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)0321
Totals01222

















Pass Rushers3 Rush4 Rush5 Rush6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)0211
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)1500
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)1101
Totals2812




And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers3 Rush4 Rush5 Rush6 RushTotal
1st Down014 - 70%3 -15%3 - 15%20 - 40%
2nd Down012 - 75%2 - 12%2 - 12%16 - 32%
3rd Down2 - 15%8 - 61%1 - 7%2 - 15%13 - 26%
4th Down00000
Totals2 - 4%32 - 65%6 - 12%7 - 14%49

That is a lot of data!

Thanks to our new contributor John Daigle for his work on the numbers and for his pie-charts that have been added.

This will all make more sense to you as we get a few games under our belt and find new wrinkles and establish patterns and such.

But, overall, despite yardages being modest and Romo not finding much downfield, I think with the offensive line showing reasonable protection ability and DeMarco finding holes on the ground, there is a lot to feel good about offensively heading to Week 2.  Adding Brian Waters should also help and next week they can start looking for more ways to work Dez Bryant into the proceedings.

A decent foundation is being built.
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Posted in Callahan 2013, cowboys 2013, Garrett 2013, Offense | No comments

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Wondering Where DeMarco Is Headed

Posted on 07:36 by Unknown
One of the talking points out of Saturday's victory over Cincinnati was the benching of DeMarco Murray by Jason Garrett after the running back put the ball on the ground in the 1st Quarter.  It seemed to annoy Murray quite a bit and it certainly has helped fill some segments of radio as we discuss the relative authority demanded and distributed by the Cowboys' coach.  We discussed how Garrett is growing into his role recently, and this did not hurt that development one bit.

The DeMarco Murray story - as we hit year 3 already - is an interesting one to say the least.  He has been billed as a fantastic heir to the running back throne in Dallas which Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith once ruled.  Whether he is close to that quality remains to be seen in more than short bursts, but it is easy to see how he can make people forget Troy Hambrick, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice.

Now, he has to prove that he is more than Julius Jones, 2004 or Marion Barber, 2007 - which is, a fantastic start to a career, but that proved to be the high-water mark rather than a sign of things to come.

Babe Laufenberg had quite interesting numbers on the broadcast on Saturday night about the falloff of the numbers from DeMarco Murray since his November 2011 which set his bar very, very high.

In fact, the numbers are actually quite interesting to look at between Julius Jones and DeMarco.

First, Murray as we separate his first 100 carries from the rest.


DEMARCO MURRAY
Attempts Yards YPA 10+ Runs Runs for Loss
1-100 674 6.74 17 18
next 225 886 3.9 15 71


And now, let's turn back the clock on Julius Jones in what is relatively the same two samples from 2004 and 2005:

JULIUS JONES
Attempts Yards YPA 10+ Runs Runs for Loss
1-98 445 4.5 12 24
next 219 797 3.6 20 49

Clearly, you would rather have Murray no matter which way you slice it, but that is hardly real strong praise in that Julius Jones turned out to be a enormous falloff from Stephen Jackson - the guy that the Cowboys was thought was comparable to Jones on Draft Day 2004.

And, we better remember that Murray's drop off might have far more to do with those blocking in front of him rather than his own performance.  But, that is the discussion, right?  When it is time to pay DeMarco, you aren't going to pay him based on the quality of the offensive line.  You are going to pay him on his own quality - and it is their job to figure out where one ends and the next begins.

Which take us to what we love so much about Murray.  As his last 2 touches on Saturday night showed, he is a load to bring down.  He shoved a fantastic stiff arm into the helmet of a would-be tackler and then on the dump off pass from Kyle Orton, he made several Bengals miss on his way to the end zone.  He runs so hard.  He punishes on the way in.  He is relentless in his effort and seems to pattern his game after his predecessor at Oklahoma, Adrian Peterson (who doesn't?).

So, here come the next 2 questions about that style.

1) - Can you do it and stay healthy?

2) - Can you do it and hold on to the football?

And these, more so than the production to a certain point, are the determiners in what Murray becomes. Is he a back who is here in 2018?  Or, is he a back who is only here until he can be replaced with a new model in the 2015 draft?

The health has been detailed.  He broke his right ankle in 2011 and then sprained a foot in 2012 that kept him out of 6 weeks of action as well.  Can a player with the high miles from Oklahoma and his style stay on the field in the NFL when he plays that high and that hard?

And then, the fumbles.  It could be argued that Adrian Peterson's fumble issues in 2009 kept the Minnesota Vikings out of the Super Bowl (see NFC Championship Game in New Orleans) and in that offseason, Peterson was determined to fix it.  Since then, in 933 touches, he has fumbled a total of 6 times or once every 155 touches.

Murray, in 385 career touches has fumbled 4 times.  Not horrible, but once every 96 touches and had 2 last December that were crucial.  Once against Pittsburgh which cost the Cowboys points in a very close game as he fumbled and lost the ball at the Steelers' 7 yard line.  And then, in a tight loss to New Orleans, he fumbled in a tie game at the Cowboys 3 yard line, setting up the Saints nicely.

And, that is one principle reason why Garrett had to shut down Murray for a bit.  Yes, fumbles will happen.  But, as he said, a handoff has to be a safe play.  A running back is the last guy that should be fumbling.  He has to know that when he declares war on his tacklers, they will be going for that ball to teach him a lesson on going down at first contact.

The other assignment he blew on Saturday was the first play of the game when he ran past a blitzer who sacked Tony Romo.  He did not make the right read and his QB was hit hard near his own goal line.  These are big responsibilities, and he has to prove he can handle them all.

So, what does the future hold for Murray?  I imagine he controls the Cowboys season to a certain extent.  He has to stay on the field and he cannot get demoralized by poor blocking.  He can make this team a real contender if he can play anything like he did in November 2011.  But, that is historic stuff.

He is a pivotal player who can set the tone and be a leader by his ferocious style.  But, he also has to be above handing the ball over or getting himself hurt because of picking one too many battles.  It is a lot on his plate.



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Posted in cowboys 2013, DeMarco Murray, Garrett 2013, Jason Garrett | No comments

Monday, 26 August 2013

Morning After: Preseason - Cowboys 24, Bengals 18

Posted on 07:25 by Unknown
If you can read anything from the preseason (and we all know it is dangerous to think you can), then you attempt to carefully read the one time in the exhibition season where both teams admit they are running out the starters for an elongated amount of time.  And when that "dress rehearsal" week is against a team that has been in the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 and is attempting to accomplish plenty as well, then you like to see the results go your way.

And on Saturday, against the Cincinnati Bengals side that is a strong candidate to represent the AFC again in the postseason, the Cowboys held up pretty well all night, and clearly got the better of the battle of the 1's as Tony Romo and his crew produced and went to halftime with a 14-7 lead.  The #1 offense hit its stride in the 2nd Quarter and while it certainly is not without negatives, they looked very strong as Dez Bryant dominated the Bengals secondary with the ease that confirms the prediction of the entire offseason that has projected Bryant to have his way with just about anyone who dares to line up across from him.

Bryant, entering his 4th season as a pro, has looked the part since about October of 2012 as the unstoppable force that Jerry Jones thought was going to be worth the trouble when he went out of his way to secure him in the 2010 draft.  Amidst the nonsense and warning signs of headaches that waited ahead, was a player that looked to have as much talent as anyone.  However, those stories are everywhere in professional sports.  The rarity is to see someone become what optimistic projections hope for.  But here is Bryant, almost without warning, becoming a top player in all of the NFL and showing signs that if things go right, he can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

His physical handling of another 1st Round pick, Dre Kirkpatrick on Saturday Night demonstrated another chapter in that developing story.

And that story, puts the Cowboys offensive strategy in an interesting spot.  One in which the mantle of "go-to" guy for Tony Romo will not be Jason Witten anymore.  Witten will certainly catch his share and work near the chains over and over again with his sit-downs in the zones, but the offense should be designed with the idea that nobody will be able to handle Bryant 1-on-1.  If they try, they should be punished, and if they roll coverage over to assist (which will be the norm), then Witten, Miles Austin, and whoever the 4th receiver will be - a 3rd WR or a 2nd TE - will all have advantageous coverage opportunities.

This continues the discussion about personnel groupings and what we have seen in the first month of camp and preseason as it pertains to the initiative from draft day to utilize multiple tight ends as the base offense.  First, I would like to point out that the training camp media talk has nothing to do with the actual play-calling on the 16 Sundays that matter in the fall.  Just because beat writers work "12 personnel is the Cowboys offense" in their stories doesn't mean it is true and it doesn't mean that many of those same writers have any idea what that means.

How much does an offense utilize its base grouping?  If "12" is the base grouping, should we expect it 30% of the time or 80% of the time?  Does anyone know?

Well, here is what we know from what we wrote on the topic back in June.

 It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011. 
In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play? 
The Cowboys have not run an offense that has had a "base" personnel group since Troy Aikman ran the huddle.  There was a time, when the Cowboys were winning Super Bowls, that they had 2 basic personnel groups - "21" was the base, and then on 3rd Downs, they might roll out "11".  But, the idea was that the team was so good and frankly the game had not evolved too much with specialization, that the team may not substitute from Emmitt Smith, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novacek, Michael Irvin, and Alvin Harper the entire drive.

But, with Garrett, aside from the 2-minute drill, there are times where he will go an entire game without running the same personnel grouping for 2 plays in a row.  Seriously.  I have seen it a number of times.

So, let's get back to the question at hand:  Have the Cowboys demonstrated any proficiency in "12" in the preseason to make us believe that they are really going down this road as its default offense.  And the more important topic, which is never covered in the media it seems, is whether the Cowboys have made enough progress to actually try to run the traditional, balanced offense that Jason Garrett has said he desires - you know, the one that Norv Turner ran back in the glory days (where Aikman was never in shotgun, the pass set up an easy run, and the run set up an easy pass).  Can they run an offense from "under center"?  Because, if they are in shotgun, most defenses will not alter their personnel or strategy too much from "11" to "12".

Let's remember:  the whole point of changing personnel is to put the defense in a bind.  If you don't make them rethink their strategy, then anything you do is simply spinning your wheels.  But, if you take Terrence Williams off and replace him with Gavin Escobar, you would like to think there is no defender in the league that can cover both well.  If he is quick enough to stick with Williams, then he is not strong enough to handle Escobar (or tall enough) and the other way around should also be true.  However, the real beauty of "12" personnel is making the defense understand that depending on how they defend, the offense will change their plays at the line to capitalize on your shortfall.

And this bind is only properly hit if you can run your offense from under-center.  Under center is where the linebackers and safeties must respect your running game (if you have one) and move up.  This creates more space in the secondary and makes a QB's job easy.  This is why play-action passing is such a vital part of NFL offenses.  But, your Dallas Cowboys ranked 32nd in the NFL (dead last) in their use of play-action passing in 2012.  Why?  Because play-action doesn't work if the running game is non-threatening.  The linebackers snicker and drop into the passing lanes because they know they won't be needed to stop a run - the defensive line has it all by themselves.

So, let's bring this all together.  Is Gavin Escobar proving he was worth all of the trouble?  Not yet.  We have yet to see him put on a show downfield that makes this all click into place.  If he had, we may not ask ourselves tough questions, but so far, he is slow to show his quality.  And unfortunately, he is not a great run blocker.  And that is where the shortfall might put the Cowboys right back in the same place they were trying to avoid.  They want to get their running game going.  But, the offensive line has not progressed much and the negative runs were still all around on Saturday. Geno Atkins was still destroying your guards and putting the Cowboys in spots where they were allowing negative plays to lead to punts.  And Escobar cannot help balance the offense out at this point as he is still be taught how to run block on the fly.  But, more importantly, they cannot get the same 2 guards around Travis Frederick for more than a few moments.

It was Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Then, Ron Leary and Bernadeau.  Then, David Arkin and Bernadeau.  Then, Bernadeau and Doug Free.  And, of course, during this time, Brandon Moore and Brian Waters were being courted to replace all of the above.  Free, by the way, looked an awful lot like Arkin in his debut inside.  When he was uncovered, he could help and get to the 2nd level with strong efficiency.  But, when he was challenged at the snap, he was outmatched.  Honestly, how did anyone think that a guy who has strength issues against 260 lb defensive ends think that he would be an option against 300 lb defensive tackles?  I understand having a plan for emergencies, but Free makes almost no sense at guard for precisely the reasons that he struggles at tackle.  It isn't the feet as much as it is the strength.  And guards have to play low and be strong.  Free is not very good at either.

The Cowboys know they have once again over-estimated their guard situation and now are trying to rally on the fly.  But, let's be realistic.  This is not likely to fall perfectly into place.  Despite improving the center position, it still appears that running the ball is going to be difficult with the guard issues that appear to be multiple.

So, why did they want to go to 12 in the first place?  To balance the offense.  To run the ball.  And to create matchup issues down the field with players who are tough to cover.

But, if they can't balance the offense and run the ball, what is the point?  And who creates better issues, the size of Escobar or the speed of Terrence Williams outside?

My conclusion after watching the 1st half on Saturday is that while things can still develop, it seems pretty clear that on August 26th, their best offense in 2013 is the same one that was their only offense in 2012.    That is putting Tony Romo in shotgun, line up 3 wide receivers and Witten and let Romo go to work.  In other words, not 12 personnel.

It is not ideal by any stretch as defenses will then make the nickel their base defense and challenge the Cowboys to run the ball, but at some point you have to make that choice that coaches discuss constantly and the media never discusses enough:  When a coach puts down his playbook and simply accepts what his offense is capable of and more importantly, not capable of, what plays and personnel groupings does he install to play the Giants in 13 days?

If the offense cannot physically compete in the interior of the offensive line, you have to make logical choices that give you the best chance to win.  Ideally, they want to do a number of things, but there is nothing ideal about demoralizing your team and stadium by running into your guards who are being pushed back into the running lanes because they are not strong enough to hold up.  So, you stop running - which defeats the entire scheme of "12 personnel".  Not to say you won't see it, but if you think that they are rolling this out 40-50% of their snaps, we will disagree strongly.

You have a major personnel advantage - but it is not in "12".  Rather, "11" personnel, as we saw Saturday and in 2012, is still where you have a chance to put up yards, points, and wins.  It is not fundamentally ideal, but it is realistic.

In April-August, you can talk ideal views and hopeful projections.  But, as September approaches, the coaching staff is starting to see what most of us feared all along.  Unless Escobar blows people away as an un-coverable force, then spending a 2nd round pick on a 2nd tight end might seem like a superfluous use of resources when he isn't even part of your best grouping.  And while it is early, Escobar having a chance might be tightly linked to your guards allowing you to run the ball.

It is time to get realistic - so expect this offense to use much more Terrence Williams than Escobar in September.  I know I am.



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Posted in cowboys 2013, Garrett 2013, Offensive Line, preseason, Roster | No comments

Monday, 29 July 2013

Cowboy 2012 - The Offense That Needed To Change

Posted on 07:15 by Unknown
I was asked by one of you to review the final results of Decoding Garrett 2012.  For those new to this space, you may be interested in knowing that since 2008, we have catalogued each offensive snap of the Cowboys from a standpoint of personnel group and then what type of play it was (run or pass).  This helps us track the progress of the offense in greater detail than your average analysis piece, but more importantly, it helps us compare apples to apples when looking at how the team is doing offensively.

Given that play calling has been delegated to Bill Callahan in 2013, we do have the opportunity to re-name this study, but I do think since Garrett is still the mastermind behind the offense and the man sitting at the head of the table when game plans are designed, we likely will keep it just the same.

For those who are new, the reason we look at the offense from a personnel grouping point of view, is that it replicates the actual discussions that the coaches actually have - rather than this fantasy football viewpoint that many fans obsess over this time of year.  If you play fantasy football, that is all fine - millions do, but it has very little use from a "real football" standpoint.

Teams do not care about personal statistics and they understand how a player drawing coverage is just as valuable to the big picture as his teammate who is making all of the catches as a direct beneficiary of the player who is drawing the coverage.  Dez Bryant, in other words, can really help the team with a 2-catch performance, but his fantasy owners will be angry.  Here, in this space, we don't care at all about fantasy football implications.  There are plenty of places on the internet for you to get that information and analysis.

Here, we are attempting to see what the real performances mean, what Jason Witten's coverage means to Bryant, what play-action passing does to the safeties, and what a real running game could do to the linebackers in helping free up the shallow routes.  

It also keeps us from getting caught up in the raw numbers of statistics and how misleading the Cowboys yardage totals were in 2012 and how meaningless they truly were in terms of the win-loss totals.

Garrett cannot believe that his offense was one of the more productive offenses in the NFL.  There is simply no way he believes that. 
Incidentally, the 376 points they scored in 2012 ranks them 10th in the NFC out of 16 teams.  That is 1 point better than the Bears, 4 points better than the Lions.  And exceedingly more productive than the Panthers, Rams, Eagles, or Cardinals.  So there is that. 
They were 6th in the entire NFL in yardage, but I think most of us watched enough Cowboys football this year to see that much of that came during abnormally long stretches of "garbage time" football that the Cowboys offered in a number of home blowout losses.

Regardless of the results of 2012 and the reasons the Cowboys compiled impressive and hollow production numbers, the point is that they did move the ball with the effectiveness of a playoff team, and yet missed the playoffs.  Most times and in most places, it then is time to blame the defense.  Not here.  We remained steadfast in the idea that the Cowboys offense - with very acceptable levels of health all season - was as frustrating and ineffective as it has been under Garrett.

They had garbage time yards and that was pretty much the sum total of the year.  More from what we wrote in February:

 overall, with roughly 3 games where you say the offense did what it needed to do (at NY, at Balt, and Pittsburgh) and 13 other games where the offense needed to show more than what it did to get good grades, I have very little use for hearing where it ranked in yards and points.  Granted, in some of those 13, the Cowboys showed great grit and determination, but nobody would confuse will with a fantastic offensive performance.  And least they shouldn't.  
This offense was almost completely spared of injuries (comparatively speaking) and yet did not live up to the resources invested in it by any stretch of the imagination.  Looking at boxscores and totaling numbers is fun, but meaningless if you are constantly falling behind and then facing prevents to catch up.  Those numbers don't matter at all. 
I appreciate the man defending his performance and thereby, his job security, but I found his optimistic appraisal of 2012 and the offense's performance to be misleading and I bet he would agree once he dug a little deeper - which I know he has in private.

Below are the final numbers from a standpoint of production per personnel grouping.  I assume everyone is up to speed on the definition of each of the groups, but if you are not, please click on this link and read up.


PackagePlaysYardsRunPass
117235948-23324-126
1214376765-25178-516
132712519-848-41
2112182066-28655-534
227327258-16515-107
23355731-534-4
S01281590-028-159
S10100-01-10
S11479314146-188433-2953
S12422551--141-256
Totals10295967335-1256694-4731
Granted, that is a lot of numbers.  And without explanation, it can certainly be confusing.  So, just direct your attention to "S11" which is their default setting for the 2-minute drill, 3rd Down offense, and of course, the "we are way behind and need to pass every down to have any chance" offense.  And, as you can see, that was nearly half of their snaps and over half of their production from last year.  

And that is very bad.

We elaborated on the evils of S11 in this study which looked at 6 years of the Garrett offense from back in the spring.

Now, let's look at the same chart from above, except below, we will show you the yards per play in each category to show the production levels for each situation.

PackagePlaysYardsRun - AvgPass - Avg
117235948 - 4.8524 - 5.25
1214376765 - 3.8678 - 6.62
132712519 - 4.428 - 5.13
2112182066 - 4.3355 - 9.71
227327258 - 2.8415 - 7.13
23355731 - 1.714 - 1.00
S01281590 - 0.0028 - 5.68
S10100 - 0.001 - 10.00
S11479314146 - 4.09433 - 6.82
S12422551 - -1.0041 - 6.24
Totals10295967335 - 3.75694 - 6.82

"Now this shows the performances with a bit better clarity. If you look at the running averages in the "21", "22", and "23" packages, where the Cowboys ran 155 runs for only 504 yards for only 3.25 yards per run, you now see why they don't have use for a fullback anymore. They were awful running with a fullback. Not saying it is all Lawrence Vickers fault, but rather that defenses would stack the line when Vickers was in the game and the Cowboys OL had no answer for the physical run defenses."

They also spent very little time in an "under center" offense, which then prevents from ever using play action passing or a balanced offense at all.

So, there is a review of the 2012 offense.  Don't be fooled by the rankings or the yardages or the fantasy football points.  This offense was very poor and needs to get better.

They know this and now look forward to their all new and hopefully improved look in 2013.
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Posted in Bill Callahan, cowboys 2013, FSSW, Garrett 2012, Garrett 2013 | No comments
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