Morning After: Preseason - Cowboys 24, Bengals 18

If you can read anything from the preseason (and we all know it is dangerous to think you can), then you attempt to carefully read the one time in the exhibition season where both teams admit they are running out the starters for an elongated amount of time.  And when that "dress rehearsal" week is against a team that has been in the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 and is attempting to accomplish plenty as well, then you like to see the results go your way.

And on Saturday, against the Cincinnati Bengals side that is a strong candidate to represent the AFC again in the postseason, the Cowboys held up pretty well all night, and clearly got the better of the battle of the 1's as Tony Romo and his crew produced and went to halftime with a 14-7 lead.  The #1 offense hit its stride in the 2nd Quarter and while it certainly is not without negatives, they looked very strong as Dez Bryant dominated the Bengals secondary with the ease that confirms the prediction of the entire offseason that has projected Bryant to have his way with just about anyone who dares to line up across from him.

Bryant, entering his 4th season as a pro, has looked the part since about October of 2012 as the unstoppable force that Jerry Jones thought was going to be worth the trouble when he went out of his way to secure him in the 2010 draft.  Amidst the nonsense and warning signs of headaches that waited ahead, was a player that looked to have as much talent as anyone.  However, those stories are everywhere in professional sports.  The rarity is to see someone become what optimistic projections hope for.  But here is Bryant, almost without warning, becoming a top player in all of the NFL and showing signs that if things go right, he can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

His physical handling of another 1st Round pick, Dre Kirkpatrick on Saturday Night demonstrated another chapter in that developing story.

And that story, puts the Cowboys offensive strategy in an interesting spot.  One in which the mantle of "go-to" guy for Tony Romo will not be Jason Witten anymore.  Witten will certainly catch his share and work near the chains over and over again with his sit-downs in the zones, but the offense should be designed with the idea that nobody will be able to handle Bryant 1-on-1.  If they try, they should be punished, and if they roll coverage over to assist (which will be the norm), then Witten, Miles Austin, and whoever the 4th receiver will be - a 3rd WR or a 2nd TE - will all have advantageous coverage opportunities.

This continues the discussion about personnel groupings and what we have seen in the first month of camp and preseason as it pertains to the initiative from draft day to utilize multiple tight ends as the base offense.  First, I would like to point out that the training camp media talk has nothing to do with the actual play-calling on the 16 Sundays that matter in the fall.  Just because beat writers work "12 personnel is the Cowboys offense" in their stories doesn't mean it is true and it doesn't mean that many of those same writers have any idea what that means.

How much does an offense utilize its base grouping?  If "12" is the base grouping, should we expect it 30% of the time or 80% of the time?  Does anyone know?

Well, here is what we know from what we wrote on the topic back in June.

 It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011. 

In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play? 

The Cowboys have not run an offense that has had a "base" personnel group since Troy Aikman ran the huddle.  There was a time, when the Cowboys were winning Super Bowls, that they had 2 basic personnel groups - "21" was the base, and then on 3rd Downs, they might roll out "11".  But, the idea was that the team was so good and frankly the game had not evolved too much with specialization, that the team may not substitute from Emmitt Smith, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novacek, Michael Irvin, and Alvin Harper the entire drive.

But, with Garrett, aside from the 2-minute drill, there are times where he will go an entire game without running the same personnel grouping for 2 plays in a row.  Seriously.  I have seen it a number of times.

So, let's get back to the question at hand:  Have the Cowboys demonstrated any proficiency in "12" in the preseason to make us believe that they are really going down this road as its default offense.  And the more important topic, which is never covered in the media it seems, is whether the Cowboys have made enough progress to actually try to run the traditional, balanced offense that Jason Garrett has said he desires - you know, the one that Norv Turner ran back in the glory days (where Aikman was never in shotgun, the pass set up an easy run, and the run set up an easy pass).  Can they run an offense from "under center"?  Because, if they are in shotgun, most defenses will not alter their personnel or strategy too much from "11" to "12".

Let's remember:  the whole point of changing personnel is to put the defense in a bind.  If you don't make them rethink their strategy, then anything you do is simply spinning your wheels.  But, if you take Terrence Williams off and replace him with Gavin Escobar, you would like to think there is no defender in the league that can cover both well.  If he is quick enough to stick with Williams, then he is not strong enough to handle Escobar (or tall enough) and the other way around should also be true.  However, the real beauty of "12" personnel is making the defense understand that depending on how they defend, the offense will change their plays at the line to capitalize on your shortfall.

And this bind is only properly hit if you can run your offense from under-center.  Under center is where the linebackers and safeties must respect your running game (if you have one) and move up.  This creates more space in the secondary and makes a QB's job easy.  This is why play-action passing is such a vital part of NFL offenses.  But, your Dallas Cowboys ranked 32nd in the NFL (dead last) in their use of play-action passing in 2012.  Why?  Because play-action doesn't work if the running game is non-threatening.  The linebackers snicker and drop into the passing lanes because they know they won't be needed to stop a run - the defensive line has it all by themselves.

So, let's bring this all together.  Is Gavin Escobar proving he was worth all of the trouble?  Not yet.  We have yet to see him put on a show downfield that makes this all click into place.  If he had, we may not ask ourselves tough questions, but so far, he is slow to show his quality.  And unfortunately, he is not a great run blocker.  And that is where the shortfall might put the Cowboys right back in the same place they were trying to avoid.  They want to get their running game going.  But, the offensive line has not progressed much and the negative runs were still all around on Saturday. Geno Atkins was still destroying your guards and putting the Cowboys in spots where they were allowing negative plays to lead to punts.  And Escobar cannot help balance the offense out at this point as he is still be taught how to run block on the fly.  But, more importantly, they cannot get the same 2 guards around Travis Frederick for more than a few moments.

It was Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Then, Ron Leary and Bernadeau.  Then, David Arkin and Bernadeau.  Then, Bernadeau and Doug Free.  And, of course, during this time, Brandon Moore and Brian Waters were being courted to replace all of the above.  Free, by the way, looked an awful lot like Arkin in his debut inside.  When he was uncovered, he could help and get to the 2nd level with strong efficiency.  But, when he was challenged at the snap, he was outmatched.  Honestly, how did anyone think that a guy who has strength issues against 260 lb defensive ends think that he would be an option against 300 lb defensive tackles?  I understand having a plan for emergencies, but Free makes almost no sense at guard for precisely the reasons that he struggles at tackle.  It isn't the feet as much as it is the strength.  And guards have to play low and be strong.  Free is not very good at either.

The Cowboys know they have once again over-estimated their guard situation and now are trying to rally on the fly.  But, let's be realistic.  This is not likely to fall perfectly into place.  Despite improving the center position, it still appears that running the ball is going to be difficult with the guard issues that appear to be multiple.

So, why did they want to go to 12 in the first place?  To balance the offense.  To run the ball.  And to create matchup issues down the field with players who are tough to cover.

But, if they can't balance the offense and run the ball, what is the point?  And who creates better issues, the size of Escobar or the speed of Terrence Williams outside?

My conclusion after watching the 1st half on Saturday is that while things can still develop, it seems pretty clear that on August 26th, their best offense in 2013 is the same one that was their only offense in 2012.    That is putting Tony Romo in shotgun, line up 3 wide receivers and Witten and let Romo go to work.  In other words, not 12 personnel.

It is not ideal by any stretch as defenses will then make the nickel their base defense and challenge the Cowboys to run the ball, but at some point you have to make that choice that coaches discuss constantly and the media never discusses enough:  When a coach puts down his playbook and simply accepts what his offense is capable of and more importantly, not capable of, what plays and personnel groupings does he install to play the Giants in 13 days?

If the offense cannot physically compete in the interior of the offensive line, you have to make logical choices that give you the best chance to win.  Ideally, they want to do a number of things, but there is nothing ideal about demoralizing your team and stadium by running into your guards who are being pushed back into the running lanes because they are not strong enough to hold up.  So, you stop running - which defeats the entire scheme of "12 personnel".  Not to say you won't see it, but if you think that they are rolling this out 40-50% of their snaps, we will disagree strongly.

You have a major personnel advantage - but it is not in "12".  Rather, "11" personnel, as we saw Saturday and in 2012, is still where you have a chance to put up yards, points, and wins.  It is not fundamentally ideal, but it is realistic.

In April-August, you can talk ideal views and hopeful projections.  But, as September approaches, the coaching staff is starting to see what most of us feared all along.  Unless Escobar blows people away as an un-coverable force, then spending a 2nd round pick on a 2nd tight end might seem like a superfluous use of resources when he isn't even part of your best grouping.  And while it is early, Escobar having a chance might be tightly linked to your guards allowing you to run the ball.

It is time to get realistic - so expect this offense to use much more Terrence Williams than Escobar in September.  I know I am.

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Monday After Preseason: Oakland 19, Dallas 17

In preseason Game #2, the Cowboys slowly ramped up their use of starters to give us our first look in the 2013 camp of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarcus Ware, and others who will be doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting this season when the games really matter.

Clearly, we saw plenty of things that tell us positive things - like a fantastic delayed blitz from Sean Lee that came free and caused another takeaway (can we all imagine what this thing might be capable of if takeaways are no longer a foreign concept?).  It also revealed that there is plenty of work to do with regards to self-inflicted wounds.

Most notably, we are back to an unreasonable amount of offensive penalties that continue to kill drives and put the team behind the chains when trying to make things happen on the scoreboard.  This team always has absurd amounts of yardage and not enough points to show for it.  That comes down to a number of factors that are all linked together in the offensive game.  They are most easily traced back to red zone inefficiency which is often brought down by "drive killers."  And what are drive killers?  Sacks, negative runs, but most inexcusably, penalties.  And what from the penalty family is enough to frustrate everyone?  Presnap penalties?

False start of James Hanna.  False start of Ron Leary.  Holding on Jason Witten.  All in the first 2 drives of the Cowboys (the drives where everyone played) that otherwise could have been worth 14 points.  Instead, they left with 3 points.  That is familiar inefficiency.  On a team where Doug Free led all tackles in penalties in the entire league, and where Tyron Smith and Witten both ranked very highly in their positional groups, then to call that an initiative this season is a fair idea.

Beyond that, there were some fine adjustments made between Tony Romo and Dez Bryant when Tracy Porter jumped a slant route and they improved for a big gain and more promising work from Ronald Leary and Travis Frederick inside for most of the night.  It should be noted, however, that Frederick is noticeably better at center right now than guard.  I would leave him there and not look back.  Especially given that Phil Costa still looks overpowered in certain scenarios.

SPECIAL TEAMS ISSUES

One theme that constantly was heard on Friday night was the disastrous manner in which Rich Bisaccia  and his special teams took center stage and showed us they have plenty of work to do.

It is important to understand how preseason makes special teams analysis almost ridiculous.  A special teams coach does have to prepare his units to be ready to play for preseason - but those units and the group he will actually have in Week 1 are totally different.

I have been told by more than a few personnel people that if you want clues on who is likely to make a team by watching preseason games, watch who they put out to cover kicks to start games.  By the 2nd half, it is mostly comprised of players who will not make the club or who have less than a likely chance.  But, those in the 1st Quarter are the odds-on favorites to make the team based on their value to the special teams.

If you are new this season to my blog, a quick lesson on special teams.  Ask any coach the value of a special teams unit and they will often tell you it is what hinges a fringe team from making the playoffs or not.  In the Cowboys case last season alone, 2 games that were lost could have been converted to wins if the special teams group did not bust so badly.  The road games at Seattle and Baltimore were both easily sabotaged because of a huge return, a blocked kick, or another moment that broke down without warning.  Several other games were affected, and the game at Philadelphia was won with Dwayne Harris putting on a show as a punt returner.

So, if you have 53 players on your roster - with 46 dressed on game-day, you see this is not college football.  Every member of the 46 must be ready to contribute to either offense, defense, or special teams (save for your backup QBs).  Once you consider those numerical realities, you quickly see that anyone who is not playing 50 snaps or more for their offensive or defensive units, must be strong and solid coverage players on kicks and punts.  If they aren't, then you are wasting spots and once injuries hit early in a game, you are in full panic mode as a coaching staff.

Again, filling spots on special teams is not the goal.  The goal is to not lose a game and thus a playoff spot because your special teams were just filled with warm bodies and suddenly a kick return ends your season.  You must have quality and the end game must be at least to play even-up against an opponent in these 15-20 snaps a game that are often ignored by most fans and fantasy football leagues.

When we fill out our projections for the roster - which I will this week - we must place strong consideration to who can cover and block on kick teams if they are not clear-cut starters.  That is why we are foolish to not consider Eric Frampton, JJ Wilcox, Lance Dunbar, Phillip Tanner, Kyle Wilber, Devonte Holloman, and of course, Danny McCray as very likely spine members of Bisaccia's crew.

Coverage units are usually comprised of backup linebackers, tight ends, defensive backs, and certain running backs and wide receivers.  The more you can be trusted to tackle a return man in the open field, the more valuable you make yourself to the team.  And the more valuable you are, the more likely you are to make the team - and then to dress on game day.

Some of these guys - like Tanner, Wilber, McCray, and Holloman will play on all 4 teams - punt cover, punt return, kick cover, and kick return.  That leads to continuity, which then leads to fewer busts because you are constantly turning things over.

The opposite is what affects guys down the list at safety or wide receiver.  Can Cole Beasley help you on special teams?  It is tough given his size, unless he is the actual returner.  Now that Harris and Dez Bryant are that guy, where can Beasley help you?  If he is your 4th or 5th best wide receiver, he will not play many offensive snaps.  No snaps plus no special teams contribution mean that despite his talents, it is a tough call to put him on your roster.  If Danny Coale can play on your special teams and Cole Beasley cannot, you have to know that Beasley must be significantly better on offense to win that battle.  Matt Johnson?  Same issues, although we are just guessing because we haven't really seen him cover yet.  Lance Dunbar?  What if Will Allen is not a starter at safety in October?  Reserves with no special teams value are very difficult to justify unless they play on either line.

So, the issues BW Webb showed as a return man or the overall busts in the 2nd half don't trouble me.  Those guys won't be in those spots when it really matters.  What does concern me is the issues surrounding the units in general.  When guys are on the fringe of the roster - ALWAYS ask what they might help you accomplish on kicks and punts.  If the answer is nothing, then they will have a very hard time surviving the final cuts.

That is the numbers game that is being sorted out in the personnel rooms around the league right now.  You do not want your season to go up in smoke because you got a FG blocked or a punt returned.

If someone makes the team and you can't figure out why, know that it is very likely because Rich Bisaccia argued hard that he needs him on his specialty units.  He will assemble a spine group of 5-7 and fill in the gaps with the table scraps from Jason Garrett and Monte Kiffin.  And then he will be expected to never lose the Cowboys a game.  It is not as easy a gig as some think.

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The Morning After: HOF Game - Dallas 24, Miami 20

I am always up for over-analyzing something that might not require over-analyzing, but I will attempt to slow my roll given that it is a preseason game that preceded all other preseason games by a full week.

In other words, it is really early, folks.

However, entering training camp, there are 2 departments on this team that needed to prove that they were better than they have been in the recent past.  Safeties and offensive line.  Player availability and opposition efforts preclude us from reading too much into the safety play - other than JJ Wilcox is an impressive physical presence and that Matt Johnson remains a durability concern (to say the very, very least).  Other than that, I think we must wait a week or two before we talk much on the safeties based on preseason game work.  However, you can already see that they need plenty of work getting the proper depth so they don't play too shallow and risk plays over the top, but also not too deep leaving very easy 20 yard gains on digs that are beyond the linebackers and in a huge gulf short of the too deep, 2 deep safeties.

But, offensive line?  Well, that is where I spent most of my Sunday night and Monday morning on analyzing a few spots in particular.

First, some brief background - because if you need more than brief, I would encourage you to read the archives of this blog as I have spent somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 words documenting the issues of the offense in general and the offensive line in specific on why this unit on the team controls pretty much everything (regardless of what the NFL Network or ESPN try to put on the Quarterback).

In 2010, the offensive line was very poor and needed a change in many regards if they were ever going to run the football effectively.  They did change, and for a while, we were left to believe that undersized kids like Phil Costa and Bill Nagy, and retreads like Montrae Holland and Tony Fiammetta made all of the difference in the world in 2011.  However, by the end, they were exposed by the Giants (among others) and they knew that to get better in 2012, it would have to start with the OL.  But, in 2012, the "upgrades" were actually discards from other teams looking to get their own upgrades (Bengals and Panthers) and before long we saw that change doesn't always mean improvement.  For most of 2012, they couldn't run a normal, balanced offense.  It was actually worse than 2011 in many respects,  and 2011 was at times, worse than 2010.  They had 3 drastically different OL ideas in 3 consecutive seasons, but for the most part, they were limited by the negative play of the OL all 3 seasons.  Change never helped.

So, there you have a brief history of the achilles heel of Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and pretty much the entire Cowboys offense since they last played in the post-season.

And that brings us to preseason 2013.

If you are not familiar with my training camp policies, it is basically to not read too much into practices in Oxnard for decision making.  I know many of my media colleagues disagree with this (based on the daily updates on who is winning the starting job at guard based on a Tuesday practice) but I like to treat practices and walk throughs like someone studying for their tests in college.  It is great that you studied well, son, but we are only interested if you can answer the test questions when we give you the test.  Playing at practice speed should prepare you for game speed, but practicing against other Cowboys doesn't help me very much.  I like to see them trying to deal with what another team is running out there and against players that don't know all of your tricks (or you, theirs) and therefore it seems like a more fair fight and something that should actually matter.

With that in mind, Sunday night in Canton was our first look at the 3 interior spots which to varying levels, all seem like open spots in the starting lineup and on the roster.

Here is what I saw:

RONALD LEARY - Let's start with the exciting news.  Consistent with those practice reports, we are seeing Leary look like a guy who is ready to contribute in this league at a reasonably high level.  And by that, it is fair to see him in the mix as a starter at left guard - especially if these whispers of Nate Livings knee issues are correct.  In many regards, he is very similar to Livings, which means he is strong at the point of attack, and big enough that you aren't going to go past him in pass rushing very often.  Unlike Livings, Leary actually looks comfortable on the move and getting to the 2nd level to dig guys out and they certainly enjoy pulling him on some "G Power" plays to the right.  He played a ton and I saw almost nothing that bothered me at all about his performance.  He looks way better than he did technique-wise in 2012.  Long ways to go, but they have to be very happy about what he has shown so far.

TRAVIS FREDERICK - They played him for most of the 1st half at center and then most of the 2nd half at guard.  I thought his center play was terrific, where he is basically directing traffic well and then handling his own business with ease.  He is just a really strong center (especially when compared with the Cowboys other option at center, Phil Costa) who seems to know where he is going and what he is doing already - a skill not to be overlooked for a rookie.  When they moved him to guard, he struggled a bit more and at times looked so/so.  It appears he is of average strength for a guard.  I can see that they are hoping that he could be the solution at right guard, but I think that might weaken them at both center and right guard.  Play him at his best position and figure the rest out around him, in my opinion.  Of course, his true test at center is going to be shotgun offense with live ammo and Romo changing a play, but so far, so good.

DAVID ARKIN - This is Arkin's 3rd year and he is still hoping to take his first NFL snap, but it does appear that he is noticeably better.  However, the projections that say he is ready to play 70 snaps in a game seem absurd to me, as he again really struggles when a DL threat is lined up on his head.  When uncovered, he has great feet and mobility, but when he is challenged off the snap, his strength issues come to the front quite quickly.  On those zone stretch plays, if you have a lineman who cannot hold his line, he can get pushed back into the path of the RB which leads to a tackle for loss most times.  Arkin is guilty of this a few times against the Dolphins and it wasn't like Miami had their 1s out against him very much.  I think he might be a reserve option, but this starting idea is not close for me.  Let's see his work for a few more weeks.

PHIL COSTA - Like Arkin, the issue with Costa has always been strength for me.  In 2011, he was comically over-matched against the premium nose tackles and interior men in the league and then missed 2012 almost entirely with back issues which never seem to be the recipe for getting stronger.  He replaced Frederick late in the 2nd Quarter at center and played the rest of the way and was fine in most situations, but there were about 3 different times where he was fork lifted backwards beyond the rest of the line which seems to indicate that he is still getting pushed around at the point of attack.  This can be hid a bit better than Arkin because if Costa is at center, then you have 2 strong guards protecting him, but I still don't like the idea of him at center with Frederick available.  And Arkin or Costa at guard is just not idea with your intentions to establish run and play-action passing in 2013.

Beyond that, they were surrounded by tackles that really are not candidates to make the team for most of the night, but the running game did well and there was very little inside pass protecting issues.

Overall, just seeing Leary and Frederick out there shows you that they have way better options than they have had from the youth ranks, and assuming that Livings and Bernadeau will be able to compete soon make you think that they are going to have a chance to be better.

There are 4 more preseason games to continue to work these guys and health issues can emerge at any moment, but I left the Hall of Fame Game night with some better feelings about this pivotal position on the roster that will really affect the potential of the 2013 Cowboys.

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The Morning After: Cowboys 20, Rams 19 - Preseason Gm #3

This has clearly been a preseason where there has been a number of annoying news stories. Nothing that so far has threatened to destroy the season or anything, but certainly the Cowboys have had their share of regulars tweak hamstrings and miss weeks of valuable camp time. The lacerated spleen of Jason Witten is the leader in the clubhouse for most serious injury to a significant piece of the team, and at this juncture, the medical staff is leading us to believe that this is something that will not linger all year. If he doesn't rush his comeback for Week 1, the premise being offered is that he will be at full strength the remaining 15 weeks of the season most likely.

Beyond that, the injury demons have claimed a portion of the rookie class, as we may not know in 2012 what Matt Johnson or Danny Coale can do, and Kyle Wilbur has not had much luck, either. Caleb McSurdy will have to wait a year if he is ever to have his name known as well. So, what once was a promising draft class is now potentially down to the 1st, 3rd, and 6th rounders before the train even leaves the depot. That means that impact will be minimized, but the contributions of Mo Claiborne, Tyrone Crawford, and James Hanna all appear to be something that one can be excited about. Hanna in particular looks far more useful than even predicted, but time will tell on that front.

There are still massive concerns about the offensive line, including the center position that looks extremely uncertain. Either you have the player who has never played in a regular season game and never performed a center/QB exchange in his football career starting at Giants Stadium in 9 days or you have a player who struggled last season returning to action for the first time since the Cowboys were defeated soundly at Giants Stadium last January 1st. Either way, the Giants are certainly rubbing their hands together with anticipation for whoever the Cowboys line up with in front of Tony Romo.

Add to that the premise that the strike force of skill position targets that we once thought would be Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten could morph at least partially in New York into Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, and John Phillips.

But, one thing that seems to be clear as we head into 2012 should reassure most Cowboys fans that optimism is allowed and recommended as you hit the new year; You have one of the better Quarterbacks in the league. And in a league that is more and more about your level of Quarterback play, Romo gives Dallas a fighting chance to turn some heads this season.

Now, some are ready to respond with the tired debates about playoff wins and choking in December, and that crowd reminds one in this election year to the pointless debates between Democrats and Republicans where the dialogue is never heard by the other side. Both sides are convinced that they are right and the other-side is insane. To that group, the group that ignores personal performance in a team game to simply shout that the Cowboys would be better if they had a better quarterback, well then you can either read my entire essay on the topic or go post on a message board your plans for getting Vince Young in here to save the day.

To the rest of you - perhaps those who have watched carefully at how his performance since his injured 2010 has been nothing short of fantastic - it should be reassuring to see how good Romo looked against the Rams and the idea that he appears to be sharp as a tack and more determined than ever to push the Cowboys as far as they can go.

He became far more efficient in 2011, to a point where he had very few meltdown moments. Now, those 2 that jump right off the page - the Revis Interception and the Bobby Carpenter Pick 6 - were devastating, but if you can find a QB that didn't make a bad throw in 2011, you are better at watching football than I am.

Sure, there are a few among the top group of QBs that you might rate higher, but the Cowboys are getting premium play from a premium position, and as they enter a much more difficult schedule in 2012, I am pretty comfortable with the man they have firing the ball around the yard.

There are plenty of "ifs" to this equation. If he really has the best RB of his career behind him....If his offensive line can minimize the number of times he gets his clock cleaned...If he gets healthy seasons from a few of his skill position weapons...

You know the drill. It is a league that is pushed together with a large pack in the middle with the 10-6/6-10 peloton. A great season from a QB can overcome a lot of issues. Perhaps, with a defense that has a far greater ability to make a play that could make a difference, a similar QB season from Romo could help this team find its way to the top of the NFC East.

The biggest argument against this happening in 2012 is that Romo likely played his best season ever last year and this team won only 8 games with hardly a quality win the entire year. The best win was in Week 2 at San Francisco, and that was a game that when it was played, nobody thought the 49ers were on their way to hosting the NFC Championship Game.

But, as you see Brandon Carr and Mo Claiborne at the other corner on Saturday night, with a defensive line that looks improved in the pass rush department, and then a healthy DeMarco Murray added to Romo's dynamite performance, you can squint and see the best-case scenario being a year where the Cowboys survive the difficult 4 out of 5 on the road stretch from October 14th to November 11th. At that point, through 9 games, the Cowboys will have 6 of their 8 road games behind them. If they can get out of that stretch at 5-4, then 10 or 11 wins is within reach.

With Romo, this is possible. And, if they lose Romo for a few weeks, you would like to believe they now have a QB in Kyle Orton who can get them a 2-2 record during a month as the starter.

Trust me, I still have many, many concerns. This team has a lot to stress about. There are many places where an injury can cause everything to unravel.

But, you are solid at the most pivotal position on the field. The Cowboys have an elite QB. I measure that not in career playoff wins, but in the way he is playing at this point of his career compared to the competition in the league. Over the last 12 months, he is playing the position incredibly well. You can delude yourself into thinking that the Cowboys win 13 games last year if Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers was the QB in Dallas, but I don't buy that. This team was 8-8 last year for a number of reasons. And since Brees doesn't play corner and Rodgers doesn't block Jason Pierre Paul, I will not subscribe to the lunacy that the QB held them back.

Again, to some of you this is the worst thing that I have written. To the rest of you, you already agree with this premise. So, we might ask what the point was?

It is simply to discuss the lead story of the 3rd preseason game. Romo is still Romo.

In summary, in the preseason dress rehearsal, Romo again proved that he is sharp and prepared. Locked in and ready to lead. Is he on his way to finally being recognized for what he is - a top player at the most important position?

The story will begin to unfold in about a week. And that 1st game will require Romo to be on his best form for Dallas to have a chance in what could be their most difficult game of the year. And even then, as we saw last year, it still might not be enough.

But, for all of the headaches on this roster right now, knowing your QB is ready to have a great year should offer something for a mood swing of optimism.

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The Surprising Story of Cole Beasley

One month ago, you could have given me an infinite number of guesses about what would be my top reason for getting mail this preseason and I never would have guessed it would be an undrafted candidate to be one of the smallest men in the NFL, Cole Beasley.

Beasley has generated headlines in June, July, and now August. In June, news from Organized Team Activities was this tiny slot receiver was having his way against the Cowboys defenders. In present times, the media is stationed nearby and must report on every detail - even in June - and often time they would get the fans worked into a frenzy about someone who has very little chance to make the team or play professionally. But, what else would you discuss at OTA's?

Then, in July, there was talk about his spot on the roster and in the plans. Given his SMU ties, he was interviewed about other smallish WRs that have flourished in the NFL. Wes Welker has a very similar body, but when asked about him, along came more headlines: "I get tired of it a little bit because I feel like I have a little bit more speed than Wes Welker does," Beasley told KRLD-FM. "He's got a little bigger frame than me, but I feel like I've got a little more versatility to my game than he does."

But, August has been his finest work. On August 3rd, at the end of the first week of training camp in Oxnard, Beasley left the team for personal reasons. Jason Garrett explained the situation by relaying a conversation where Cole indicated his heart was just not in it anymore. He wasn't sure he had any desire to play football. The team gave him some space and a short amount of time to clear his head and change his mind. They thought he would be right in the mix for a job until the end, but they are also not unfamiliar with the grind of training camp messing with the mind of a rookie. Does he really want to be here? Does he care to take the beating of football any longer?

That, of course, is a very big concern for someone this size. The Cowboys have him listed at 5'8, 177, and that makes him the lightest player on the training camp roster. In fact, Chris Jones, the punter, is 6'0, 208 and will likely go several weeks between personal contact. Dan Bailey, the kicker, is 6'0, 189. When the punter and kicker have more size and mass than you, and you are expected, if you are lucky enough to get a job, to cruise through the secondary and receive a hard hit every time then you can understand the concern. The desire to take a beating is both necessary and enough to have some people wonder if you need a mental evaluation for being insane enough to sign up for that.

There are certainly players that are about his height. And, there are players who are about his weight. But, the combination is what frightens you about his ability to take the beating on an NFL Field. Wes Welker and DeSean Jackson may be the prototypes, but that should not mean that other 5'10, 180 humans have what it takes to play in the NFL because we have found very few cases of it. They are surely a very rare outlier, and the odds of finding the next from that collection are extremely long.

But, beyond the questions of whether he is mentally up for the punishment he is signing up for, and physically able to survive the beating that the position requires, we obviously have far more complicated matters if we look at this from the Dallas Cowboys point of view.

Can he be that slot receiver that you desperately need? Can he replace Laurent Robinson and his 11 touchdowns or be some version of Wes Welker - a guy who has caught over 110 passes in a season 4 different times? Of course not. Don't be silly.

But, can he stake his claim as one of the 5 best wideouts the Cowboys have in camp? That is far more reasonable. In 2007, the Cowboys kept 6 receivers for Week 1, but as a general rule, 5 is the number. With Dez Bryant and Miles Austin already givens, that leaves 3 spots available to all of the candidates. And of the group of Andre Holmes, Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, Danny Coale, and Cole Beasley, it seemed he started camp in 5th place where only the top 3 get jobs. But, now? It is admittedly too close to call.

Holmes helped himself in Oakland, but has had very uneven moments at camp to say the least. However, he is always going to be 6'5 in this conversation. Ogletree is the least exciting to fans, since they have heard his name since 2009, but there are reasons to believe his game is coming together as a slot guy. But, he has no special teams skills. Harris is another player that brings plenty of intrigue, versatility and a college resume that jumps off the page. Beasley wows you with 255 college catches for 2,959 yards and 14 Touchdowns at SMU. Harris counters with 268 catches and 3,001 yards and 20 TDs at East Carolina. But, while Beasley returned 5 kicks and punts at SMU, Harris has a return man resume of over 100 kicks and 50 punts in college. And then, Danny Coale, the highest pick of them all, has hardly made any impressions during 3 weeks of training camp because of injury, but when you are selecting who to keep, you are not being wise to make a 5 year decision based on 3 weeks.

As a receiver, you only have to watch the 4th Quarter in San Diego to see what Cole Beasley is capable of. He caught a pass from Tony Romo in the 1st Quarter for 14 yards, but other than that, all of his statistics were from the final 15 minutes of the game. In fact, with 57 minutes played on Saturday night, Beasley had 3 catches for 47 yards. But, in the final 3 minutes with Rudy Carpenter, Beasley was the intended receiver on 5 straight plays. 4 were catches for 57 yards before he fell on the ball and left the field for his now-famous vomiting episode. Otherwise, you certainly cannot count out the possibility of Carpenter to Beasley ending up in the end zone in the final moments.

He clearly has a wiggle about him. He runs tight routes and has sure hands. He then seems to have that trait to stay out of harms way with quickness and a smaller frame working for him as he weaves around much bigger players. He might be the mulligan they always wanted since seeing Danny Amendola turn into the player that they thought he could be when he spent the 2008 season in Dallas on the camp roster and then the practice squad. Amendola was another version of "the next Wes Welker" after his great success at Welker's school, Texas Tech. He has since gone on to be a very nice find in St Louis.

But, Amendola, Welker, Jackson, and even Harris have one thing going for them that Beasley does not. They were and are all special teams weapons. Everyone in that group was the regular returner on punts, kicks, or both in both college, the pros, or both. But, at SMU, Beasley returned 4 punts and 1 kick in 4 years. He is just learning the complicated craft right now.

They are not in the business (most of the time) of finding good stories of human interest and local significance. They are trying to find the 53 most useful players that are at their disposal. Each roster has 53, but can then bring 46 to game day. This carries very little interest to the average fan, but for coaches, making sure you have the proper 46 dressed is vital. Generally (and I plan on covering this concept in depth later in the week), teams will not ask starters to play special teams. There are few exceptions, but that is the general rule. So, 22 players are off the list. Then, backup QBs, OL, and DL seldom play special teams, either. So, subtract another nearly 10 players. Then, you can only use your punter, kicker, and long snapper for those specific roles, so on things like punt return and kick return, they are not candidates. And that might bring your number all the way up to 35 players are earmarked as being non-candidates when Joe DeCamillis is finding what 11 are going on the field to return this punt. So, 46 players minus the 35 who are not options leaves DeCamillis no choices. The 11 guys left are going to be what he has to work with.
And making sure no catastrophes occur can often separate winning from losing and playoffs from not.

Can he cover kicks? No. Can he cover punts? No. Can he block for another returner? No. So, if Dez Bryant is really your punt returner - as Jerry Jones indicated a few weeks back, and Felix Jones is going back to kick returns, then the Cowboys don't have a vacancy at returns. And if they did, Harris would be the obvious choice.

Wes Welker returned 104 kicks and punts in 2004, 104 more in 2005, and another 89 in 2006. Without 300 returns, Wes Welker is likely never afforded the chance to become Wes Welker in 2007 when he got to New England.

There are plenty of things working against Cole Beasley. One thing NOT working against him is fan support. No undrafted camp body has had this much support from the fan base in years. And his performance on Saturday surely turned some heads. It was a huge game - in fact, the biggest since.... Dwayne Harris last August! Harris caught 5 passes for 127 yards and 2 TDs on August 11th of last preseason. And then he barely made the roster out of camp as a 6th round pick largely because he could play special teams.

I think this is a very interesting decision that will come down to the final hours of camp. Can the Cowboys figure out a way to keep Beasley, strictly as a wide receiver? Or, can they put the huge responsibility of returns in his hands despite the fact that he might be doing it for roughly the first time in his career at Giants Stadium in 2 weeks time?

I believe it comes down to Dwayne Harris versus Cole Beasley. If so, I still expect Harris' versatility will get that spot. But, I am happy to admit that it is much closer than I anticipated 2 weeks ago. And the plot thickens the closer we get to the finish line.

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The Morning After: A New Hope

After a sloppy 4th Quarter in which the Cowboys surrendered 21 points thanks to some generosity from the reserves in the turnover department, Dallas lost the 2nd preseason game to the San Diego Chargers, 28-20. But, over the course of the evening in beautiful San Diego, things started to round into shape as it pertains to the battles on the roster and ultimately on the field for the team. Dallas is not ready for the season to begin, and the 9 starters who were held out for various injuries must return quickly, but you are starting to see signs of how they would like the team to look when live ammunition is used in 16 days time.

One of the themes of the offense in the offseason is the dependence on the veterans who are holdover to the Bill Parcells era to continue to carry the bulk of the mail. It is certainly great that players who are now at or near their 30th birthday are still contributing in such large doses, but with Jason Witten and Miles Austin missing so much of training camp on the offense, it was refreshing to see the camps that are being put together from 2 players who were both born in 1988.

The older of the two, DeMarco Murray, looked as if he cannot wait to start the season from his limited use against the Chargers. Murray, who we discussed at great length a few weeks back, has a burst to his game that is unlike anything at his position in years. He also has versatility that allows the Cowboys, if they so desire, to essentially build an entire game plan around finding creative ways to use him and terrorize defenses. Now, the only question has been his ability to heal that left leg that was broken when Dave Tollefson rolled up on him when the Giants visited back in December. Then, the question would shift to: Will he be able to shoulder the workload of being a 20-touch a game guy in the NFL with his style of give and receive punishment over the long term.

He only received 5 touches on Saturday, which makes plenty of sense because you don't want to wear him down in August. But, in those 5 plays, he did what we saw in 2011 and even on the training camp field in Oxnard. He gets the ball and hits the line at 100 mph. He has know uncertainty of his intentions and gets there in a blur. He is confident in his body and even more confident in what he believes is about to happen. In short, he has all the appearances of a big time back. And to compare him to Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, Marion Barber, or Julius Jones is just not even close. This is Tony Romo's first chance to play with a quality, all-purpose weapon behind him in the backfield, and it has to make everyone in the game-planning meetings excited just to imagine what that could mean to the offense to have a guy who makes people miss.

Then, the younger of the tandem, Dez Bryant, has had what many consider the best training camp of any veteran. He has looked "into it" on just about every occasion on the camp field. He has shown flashes of brilliance in both of the preseason games (if you consider a jaw-dropping pass in the back of the end zone that was nullified by penalty), although his work is also being properly limited. Going into his 3rd season, it is important that he shows durability and the ability to get on the field and affect every game in every quarter.

He has been called out by the staff for his conditioning issues that seem to be something that required explanation. They weren't calling him fat or out of shape. They were calling him out of shape for what his job required. Run hard, every play, every route. And if you cannot do that 60 times during a typical NFL war in which guys are going to try to hit you, then you are not ready to be all you can be. He has famously been issued #88 because of 2 men in particular, Drew Pearson and Michael Irvin. Two legends in the jersey and the franchise, and both of them, especially Pearson, had a knack for making the biggest plays in the last moments of the 4th Quarter. And to do that, you have to be able to run your hardest when everyone else is tired.

So, in response to that, I think we are seeing him go harder at practice and at camp. Running hard every play on Tuesday and Wednesday will lead to stronger legs on Sundays. And if there is one thing that has occurred to many observers of the first 3 weeks of training camp, it would be that this offense has been very good with Witten and Austin as major cogs. But, what if they were joined by a premier running back and a game-breaking wide receiver for 16 weeks?

What if, the best players on the offense who are helping Romo are both in their early 20s? And what if, when you consider Tyron Smith (age 21) as still one of the youngest players in the NFL, this is the group to consider as your present and future? Well, then you are certainly not nearly as concerned about this "window closing" narrative that the national talkers are babbling on about.

As I watched the "1s" take on the "1s" of San Diego, that was what was most interesting to me. The Cowboys offense without Witten on the field made me - and more importantly, Tony Romo - consider the idea that it might be time to ask the young bucks to carry the mail much more than they have been asked to this point. And, since they both look committed to that opportunity by being in fantastic shape physically, this could provide very impressive results.

Some other observations from Saturday Night in San Diego:

* The offensive line was still victim of plenty of drive-stalling moments early on against the Chargers starters. There were penalties and busts that get a QB hit hard if he is not bailing them out with great awareness. David Arkin was somewhat better, but he is still going to be a liability at center if they have to play him in the regular season at that spot. His two worst moments were at the 7:13 mark of the 1Q when he was beat and forced to hold Chargers reserve nose tackle Cam Thomas and the 2:45 mark of the 1Q when he was forklifted into the backfield and the 2nd time onto his back by Thomas. He just cannot block big lineman 1-on-1. Strength and anchor will never be his forte and when you get into the regular season, defenses will find ways to isolate you and expose you if you cannot block without help - even as a center. That is one reason why Jim Johnson designed the "Double A Gap blitzes" in Philadelphia. Make the center prove he can block in a pinch. Phil Costa has similar issues, but reports are of added strength and like so many others, now we just need to see him on the field.

* Meanwhile, great reports on right guard Mackenzy Bernadeau. Bernadeau played in limited action in Carolina last season, but in the one game in which he played, a week 14 affair against Atlanta, I thought he showed he could be a steady and solid offensive guard in the NFL. It gave me concern that Carolina decided to go another direction after developing him, but I would not pretend to know what went into their decision making process. But, in watching Bernadeau on Saturday night, I was quite pleased. He is a very strong man and able to stay in front of his assignment. He also handles stunts well and gets to the 2nd level to dig out a linebacker on running plays after being a part of a combo block at the line. He looks pretty secure at RG and now we await the return of Nate Livings at LG. If he can equal Bernadeau and just become a solid guy who does his job and you don't have to worry about him each play, the OL can be back in business and the center will look better just because those around him are better, too. This is good news, but time is running out for the dream of seeing Livings-Costa-Bernadeau actually take a snap together in the preseason before they have to go wrestle with arguably the best defensive front in football on opening night in New York.

* Those who continued to help their cause to make the team include: Jamize Olawale, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, Kevin Ogletree, James Hanna, and Daniel Loper on offense and Mario Butler, Adrian Hamilton, and Robert Callaway on defense. Each of these guys edged a bit further up in their positional battles by showing some nice things on the evening. The wide receiver battles are truly interesting and all of these players aside from the big guys - Loper and Callaway - can continue to distinguish themselves by being special teams contributors. You absolutely must factor in that most important factor when trying to figure out who will make this team from man #37 to man #53 on the final roster. The first 3 dozen players you keep do not have to be special teams candidates, but you better believe that anyone under 280 lbs, who is deep on the depth chart, better be able to cover kicks. It is the only way to survive in the NFL for a young reserve. And that is why Olawale, who has almost no instincts as a ball carrier, has a great chance to knock Phillip Tanner off the roster. He just looks like a guy who could play on all 4 teams.

* Those who did not help their cause on Saturday include: Pat McQuistan, who continues to disappoint in his 2nd stint with the Cowboys, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah (although he has proven he can cover kicks already), Andre Holmes (who took a step back but is still very much in the mix), Clifton Geathers, and just about all others down the depth chart who were hoping to pop into the action. Bruce Carter, who will easily make the team, did not calm fears about his lack of play-making at MLB, but Barry Church did show more signs that he is ready to start at safety.

* Speaking of the secondary, Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne both were present and ready for action. Carr had 2 interceptions that were both on plays where he was in the trailing position, but demonstrated recovery skills and play-making. The expectation level has certainly been laid out for both players as the price was substantial, but there is no question the Cowboys are better equipped to play defense against premier receivers. Claiborne is going to sustain plenty of bumps and rookie lessons along the way, but both will bring a swagger back there that has been missing for quite a while. Hypothetically, the ability for the corners to handle their own business should free up safeties to play more of a "ball hawk" role, but we will need to see how that materializes.

* Victor Butler continues to show great pass rush skills. It is worth noting, however, that he plays DeMarcus Ware's weak-side role in the defense. What that means is that he doesn't appear to be a candidate for the strong-side where Anthony Spencer often is lined up. When the Cowboys play their 3-4, it often looks like a 4-3 under at the snap. There are a number of scheme issues to having Ware and Butler both rushing from each side on normal downs and basically, bringing 5 men. Butler is very promising, and has tremendous ability to make plays when he was on the field. But, I am not sure they will ever figure out how to get Butler and Ware on the field at the same time except on 3rd and long. Even though the two outside linebacker spots seem similar, they require different skill sets and abilities. Stay tuned for more on the topic.

Tomorrow, I want to take a long look at Cole Beasley and answer many questions about what he can and cannot do when we consider him for the roster. He is certainly making himself a tough guy to cut.

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