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Showing posts with label offensive Coordinator. Show all posts
Showing posts with label offensive Coordinator. Show all posts

Monday, 10 June 2013

A Brief History of 12 Personnel

Posted on 07:23 by Unknown
I was going through my notes to see when we really started talking about one of the latest trends to the NFL and you will be interested to know that not so long ago - as late 2008 - we as football fans associated 2 tight ends on the field as a running posture, formation, and personnel group.

This is because the NFL did, too.  The Cowboys had their elite #1 tight end in the form of the great Jason Witten, and that seemed to lock down that spot rather comfortably from the first draft of the new Bill Parcells regime. The premise of putting multiple tight ends on the field at the same time was a great way to cause mass confusion down on the goal-line when the defense adjusted to your personnel substitutions by sitting on the run, only to have your QB pull the ball back and then lob it to your blocking tight end who is standing all alone in the shadow of the goal post.  It was sound tactically to assume that a man who was a blocker was always going to block.  Remember, what is now basic football, was still being figured out in 2010 when the New England Patriots took Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the 2nd round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the 5th round of that draft.

Before that, others had tried it, but nobody had married the idea as a major part of their attack that proved as effective as the design had hoped.

Locally, Jason Garrett had seen the future, and he tried to make it happen before the Patriots ever did.  As early as 2008, it was clear what he was thinking, and although it never fully was realized, looking back, his position as a bright offensive mind seems safe in the retelling of the evolution.

Dan Campbell made a living in Dallas (2003-2005 as one of Parcells' 1st signings) and the NFL for a decade, without ever catching more than 22 balls in a season.  He was there to provide you with what amounted to a 6th offensive lineman.  He could block and pass protect, and if you forgot about him, he could hurt you with a rare reception that would make you pay.

As far as receiving tight ends, if you drafted one, you were often doing it to either replace the one you have or just providing insurance because asking Dan Campbell to be Jason Witten for the year in the event of a big injury would be a very bad situation.  The Cowboys drafted Anthony Fasano in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, but at the time, Fasano was simply seen as a more dynamic #2 behind Witten than Campbell, who was getting older and wasn't exactly cheap.  Campbell went to Detroit and Fasano started to learn behind Witten.

Fasano never exceeded anything Campbell did in Dallas statistically, as a 2nd round pick he never caught 15 passes in a season for the Cowboys in 2006-2007, and thus was traded to Miami (back to Parcells) before the 2008 draft for pennies on the dollar.  But, during his tenure with Dallas, it seemed that when Witten and Fasano were on the field together, there was nothing exotic going on tactically, that was intended to do anything more than what was being done back in 1995 with Jay Novecek and Eric Bjornson.  2 tight ends meant either a running play, a maximum protection situation, or a surprise attack in short yardage for a dink and dunk.  The same as it ever was - which is why many of us were confused with using resources like a 2nd round pick on a guy like Fasano who was never asked to do much that Campbell wasn't asked to do.  It really made little sense.

But, now, after admitting that Garrett had little plans for Fasano and trading him back to Parcells and new Dolphins coach Tony Sparano (who was in Dallas from 2003-2007), the Cowboys needed a 2nd tight end again.  This time, with yet another 2nd round pick investment, the Cowboys reeled in the very intriguing Martellus Bennett, a giant of a specimen, from Texas A and M.  At 6'7, over 250 lbs, and very interesting speed, he seemed like nothing that resembled a backup tight end.  He seemed destined to ultimately replace Jason Witten if he ever achieved his topside or if Witten started to decline over time - both reasonable possibilities by 2010.

However, what none of us saw was a rather new idea being discussed and conceived in the coaches meeting rooms where they were attempting to design an offense that deployed multiple tight ends who were weapons in their versatility.  They were not blocking tight ends or 6th OL men, they were dangerous matchup issues who would ultimately give defenses fits.  They could block, but they were receiving threats who played a style that if you dared to put a linebacker on them in coverage, they would run right past them.  But, if you decided to try a safety or a nickel corner, they would simply run a 10 yard route and then like a power forward boxing out for a rebound, they would turn and use their body to keep a smallish DB on their back, make the catch, and move the chains.  That was taking candy from a baby and a great alternative to a slot receiver who was a smaller target and a player you would never ask to block much.

This offense was not designed for simply short yardage spots.  If they could make this work, it would be all-purpose and all-situations, just as effective on 1st down as 3rd and goal.   It would hypothetically require the defense into a classic conflict situation where there was no correct remedy.  It would force the defense's hand in personnel, and whatever they choose, the offense would exploit the opposite.

If you loaded up to stop the run, Garrett could flex out Witten and Bennett as slot receivers and you would be undermanned to stop 2 TEs and 2 WRs outside.  But, if you switched to nickel or even dime (6 DBs), then, Garrett could motion both Witten and Bennett back next to the tackles and have what amounts to 7 "bigs" on offense (5 OL + 2 TEs) against 5 "bigs" on the defense and pound the rock with a Marion Barber-led power running game.  It is a beautiful grouping as you literally can go 50/50 in your play-calling from under center on 1st and 2nd down.

In 2008, the Cowboys ran the offense a bit, but they were just stretching their legs.  In the offseason between 2008 and 2009, there was plenty of discussion about how this might be the next big thing - a proper replacement idea for Terrell Owens going away - getting Witten and Bennett both on the field at the same time and making up for lesser personnel at Wide Receiver with superior personnel at Tight End and accomplishing similar things but with a different method.

Of course, it looked good on paper when I spent time writing about it back in August of 2009 both here and then again here.  Here is what I said back on August 7, 2009:
I think that is the cat and mouse game that will be played. But, as we know, the defense only has to be wrong once and they pay dearly. With Bennett and Witten, I think they can load up the line, but if they get beat once, they will lose their nerve and play more conservative. You must bracket those TE's from running down the seams. If you do not, I think it will be an easy 20 or 25 yards.

If you guess right, you are golden. But that is the beauty of "12" over almost any other personnel grouping. There is no way to pre-snap read the tendencies of the offense. It is almost a perfect 50/50 group. With Deon Anderson out there, you lean run. But with Witten and Bennett, you honestly have no idea. And with 2 WR's also on the field, you better leave your safety high. If you do, then the Cowboys can run it. Also, we saw plenty of 80 and 82 at the "F" back last year, too. There are so many options that a defense has to respect.
Easy, right?  Well, not so much.  They did have success with "12" in 2009, but not in the traditional sense of Bennett being a huge receiving threat.  The team passed for 9 yards per attempt in this group, but it wasn't because Martellus was running for another touchdown.  It was more because they were a running dominant team in 2009 and much of it happened with 2 TEs on the field.

Below is a list of "12 Personnel" usage for the last 5 seasons.  This includes every single situation where they were in "12", including shotgun situations and it does not break down run versus pass.  It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011.

YearTotal Snaps -Yards12 Personnel Snaps -Yards% of Total Offense in 12 Snaps-Yards
2008979 - 5512201 - 100120% - 18%
20091146 - 6982320 - 222228% - 32%
20101026 - 5821201 - 96621% - 16%
20111007 - 6011317 - 217831% - 36%
2012   1042 - 5987185 - 102217% - 17%

We can break it down further, as you know I will.

First, let's look at 12 personnel from under center.  This defines any time there is 1 RB and 2 TE on the field, regardless of where they are in the formation.  We do this because it is all the information the defense has when they send in personnel.  Formation is deployed AFTER personnel is declared, and therefore there must be a distinction between the two.

This does not count "22" personnel (2 RB, 2 TE) a running look that is very difficult to do successfully, but the 2009 Cowboys did great at it.

UNDER CENTER

YearTotal Snaps12 Personnel Run 12 Personnel Pass
2008170 77 - 396 (5.14 per)93 - 460 (4.94 per)
2009193 91 - 373 (4.09)102 - 918 (9.00)
201015377 - 308  (4.00)76 - 463 (6.09)
2011224 98 - 420 (4.28)126 - 1055 (8.37)
2012   14365 - 251 (3.86)78 - 516 (6.61)

Remember, there are some personnel variables to consider.  2010 was the Kitna year and John Phillips was gone throughout with his ACL injury.  2012 was the year Martellus Bennett was gone altogether.  You can see how the success in 2010 and 2012 was poor, and that when you try 65 runs and get nowhere, you aren't going to keep running your head against the wall.  Bennett was a fine blocker and therefore his absence hurt the offense, even if you have no fantasy football regret for cutting him loose.

But, look at the run/pass balance in snaps.  It often favors the pass, but not by a huge margin.  It should hurt the defense in both ways and that keep the linebackers and safeties guessing.  If you can do that, your play has a much higher possibility of success.

SHOTGUN

Here are their attempts at 12 personnel in shotgun over the last 5 seasons:

YearTotal Snaps12 Personnel Run 12 Personnel Pass
2008312 - 8  (4 per play)29 - 137 (4.72)
2009127 9 - 34 (3.77)118 - 897 (7.6)
2010485 - 24 (4.8)43 - 171 (3.97)
2011939 - 52 (5.77)84 - 651 (7.75)
2012   421 - -1 (-1.00)41 - 256 (6.24)

As you can see, this is not a very large part of the offensive attack, so we should assume that "12" as base will not mean "12" in shotgun very often unless Gavin Escobar is everything that Bennett wasn't.  He will never be the blocker that Martellus was, so their hope is that he is the receiver that every team is looking for in this package.  

In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play?

Now, they are going back to the future.  It might seem that in 2013 they are 4 seasons behind the Patriots, but this seems to have been Garrett's idea all along.  If nothing else, the drafting of Gavin Escobar to try a 3rd tight end in the 2nd round of the last 8 drafts proves they are stubborn and determined to get it right in 2013.  

We will see how Bill Callahan and Escobar help make all of this happen.
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Posted in cowboys 2013, Garrett, offensive Coordinator | No comments

Thursday, 3 January 2013

On Play Calling, Norv, and Physicality

Posted on 07:30 by Unknown
I realize that today is normally reserved for the defensive breakdowns, but I have decided to hold off until tomorrow (what is the rush, really, with the next game in about 9 months?) so that we may discuss the Cowboys "news of the day" and speak on something I am being asked quite a bit about.

Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.

So, what could this mean?  What is he talking about?  Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.

From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.

Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch?  40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving.  He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.

I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect.  That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys.  Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.

There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome.  I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.

Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns?  It didn't seem like it earlier in the season.  It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss.  And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.

But, enough about that.  Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program.  I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet.  There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand.  I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.

I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan.  I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew.  In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners.  They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.

Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense.  I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has.  You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.

6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them.  This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.

This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has.  In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.  Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received.  The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB.  When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything.  The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything.  If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do.  Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football.  But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.

Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me.  At least one of them.  But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.

1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either.  Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit.  Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time.  And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week.  Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.

2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now.  Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock.  And maybe that is worth pursuing.  I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.

3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make.  And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong.  I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare.  Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook.  That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways.  Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited.  Think about this:  Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun.  Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012.  The sport is seen differently than it used to be.

Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes.  I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.

So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it.  I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line.  I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.

In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them.  Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.

Change is good sometimes in the NFL.  Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on.  I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off.  And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.

Do I have a list of names in mind?  No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name.  Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.

I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.

I am fine with trying something new.



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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, Garrett, offensive Coordinator | No comments
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