NHL Draft Day Approaches

I take great pride in following the local NHL club in the offseason, as it is a personal passion of mine more than it is a job.  Now, I will tell you with great confidence that I am not qualified to give you much more than I usually do - which is a feel for the Top 15 or so spots in the draft.  Sadly, for the last several years, the Stars have been in that range so this has turned into a fair amount relevant discussion.

Last year, when doing this breakdown, we actually nailed Radek Faksa as the guy the Stars would get in this very blog entry.  I agree that this is a very unlikely scenario for someone who is as poor at predictions as I am (Bruins in 6), but we can't just give up our attempt to hit 2 in a row, right?

The Stars have a number of great spots in this very deep, highly-praised draft on Sunday.  They will select at #10, #29, #40, #54, and #68 in the 1st 3 rounds.  5 picks in the Top 68 is highly disproportionate, and makes the Stars one of the top holders of currency in the early going of a very strong draft.  Obviously, it is a rare opportunity to either grab the 5 best players at those spots and continue to populate the organization with heralded prospects, or they can gather some of those chips together and move on up for a bolder strike and a player with a more likely upside.

Last year, I thought the Stars were in the 3rd tier of the draft with their pick at #13.  This year, I actually would say they are at the tail end of tier #2.  It isn't that different, really, except for the idea that it does appear that if they just hold the pick and take whoever falls to them, they should really get an exceptional player.  But, of course, that is excruciating as you wait and hope that the apple of your eye does make it to you.  If they feel that the 2nd tier does not match their evaluations on a man-for-man basis, then obviously, you strongly consider a leap up the board if you can do it by packaging #10 and either #40, #54, or #68 to shoot up different distances on the board to somewhere between #6 and #8.

The price is heavy for moving up - especially when teams know you have so many picks - but, the reward might be substantial.  That said, a new regime might be more inclined to fill in organizational gaps by simply making sure they have selected many kids who can increase the big picture possibilities in a 5-year plan.

The organization has gone through plenty of trouble to accumulate 2 1st rounders and 2 2nd rounders, and now it is time to make the most of it.

Alright.  Let's try to narrow down things at #10.

Top Tier (These Players have no chance in falling to the Stars so let's not waste much time here):

There have been 3 players at the top of the board since Christmas, and while beauty is in the eye of the beholder, it seems that most experts will claim that all 3 of these guys are destined for some level of NHL stardom.  Nathan MacKinnon, Seth Jones, and Jonathan Drouin are all thought of as absolute studs.  Seth Jones is the franchise defenseman in the group and has a skill set that is absolutely jaw dropping in a league that labels Top D-men as the rarest of commodities.  However, it should be noted that it is often difficult to project players on the blue-line as "can't miss" through the years.  And in a draft this good, if Jones is only "really good" and you passed on an unbelievable forward like MacKinnon or Drouin, you might be kicking yourself for quite a while.  MacKinnon is highly regarded as a center with a fantastic offensive game and seems to have all-around center capabilities.  Also, he is 17 years old so many feel that he is simply scratching the surface of his talent.  Drouin set juniors on fire this year with a scoring pace that was mind-boggling, and the experts believe he can convert to any of the 3 forward positions you so desire.  Both MacKinnon and Drouin are celebrated for their competitive edges and high motor drive, clearly attributes everyone wants.  There is one more player that likely belongs in this tier, and might tempt someone (Tampa Bay at #3 or Nashville at #4) to grab him and that is Finnish center Alexsander Barkov.  He is another player that excelled at only 17, and he has size at the center position that is prototypical for dominance at 6'3, 209.  He is another player that it seems is widely agreed upon as a tick below the top 3, but a tick above the next group.

Next Tier (These are players who are closely grouped together.  The good news is that at least one will get to the Stars.  The bad news is that even they will only find out on Sunday.)

The next group has a number of European prospects, which of course makes things very fuzzy for evaluation purposes.  On the other hand, Jim Nill has worked in Detroit for long enough to know all of their secrets, and if anyone has consistently and properly evaluated European/Russian prospects, it is certainly our friends in Michigan.  That group is highlighted by the very impressive winger, Valeri Nichushkin.  He is massive and a freight train coming down the wing.  Of all of the players in this tier, he would be the one worth trading up to go get if all things were equal.  However, he does come with the considerable leverage of being comfortable and well paid in the KHL in Russia.  This is an issue and will always be a delicate item to be navigated for any team that selects him.  But, he sure looks like on his day he can be the best player on the ice.  He has absolutely jaw-dropping highlights that make you wonder how good he can really be.  But, he also has the KHL factor which has caused some to drop.  Don't count on it, but that is certainly in the back of the Stars' minds as a possibility.

There is also Elias Lindholm, a tenacious 2-way center from Finland who may not have offensive superstar capabilities, but there is a always going to be a place in this world for a Top 6 center who can fill all needs well.  Then, you might argue the 7th best player available is Canadian defenseman Darnell Nurse.  Nurse is another massive young man, 6'5, who has an edge to his game and can really skate.  He is famously the son of a professional CFL football player and nephew (through marriage) of Donovan McNabb.  Of all of the defensemen besides Seth Jones, Nurse is the one I am most smitten by.  He really looks like he could be a special player and capable of that top pairing spot that you always covet.

So, that is your top 7 by most people's thought process.  If any of them make it to #10, you will see dancing at the Stars table, but it isn't very likely.  I would be very delighted to walk away with Nichushkin or Nurse and might be tempted to give up a 3rd and #10 to make it happen, but I assume that might not be enough.  Also, I don't think the Stars necessarily value Nurse substantially the next tier of defensemen that includes another massive Russian, Nikita Zadorov (6'5, 230) who skates like he is 6'1, but also seems to be a bit docile and gentle.  Finnish product Rasmus Ristolainen is thought of as a sure thing with a lower ceiling, but a higher floor as NHL d-man, and then another giant who is just figuring out his game is Samuel Morin who stands at 6'7 and does seem to enjoy the physical side of the game.

There are also 2 more centers who are constantly named in this group and should be on your radar for Sunday.  Sean Monahan is the best of this group and has many supporters, despite a less than amazing skating ability.  He is another player that might turn heads if he dips to #10.  Max Domi, another famous son, has a fantastic offensive game even if his dad didn't, but seems to have that same competitive attitude Tie had.

So, there are 12 names to consider.  I don't think the Stars are in on all of them, but that is the landscape for the possible names on their list and the teams in front of them.  If someone not on this list breaks into the top 9, such as Curtis Lazar, Hunter Shinkaruk or even Ryan Pulock, figure that the Stars will be happy as names they like will get pushed down further.

So, from there, here is a little video on the Top 5 names for the Stars at #10.

#1 - Valeri Nichushkin



#2 - Darnell Nurse



#3 - Sean Monahan



#4 - Rasmus Ristolainen




#5 - Nikita Zadorov

This is a bit different than last year in that I think the Stars might be more aggressive for the right guy.  But, at #10, they cannot predict the dominoes in front of them.  I think the top 2 names Nichushkin and Nurse are long gone.  That leaves Monahan, Zadorov, and Ristolainen as the choice most likely.

Rather than making a specific pick this year like I did on Faksa last year, I am just going to sit with my order of preference.  As unlikely as #1 and #2 are, I think aggressiveness might be the play.  Monahan is also doubtful to get there, but they would be very delighted.  Then, the fall back are the two defensemen.

But, this time around, all are highly thought of and exciting to add.  Very excited about Sunday and the 3-5 premium picks the Stars have in their pocket.

So, Bob, what is your actual prediction here for the 2013 Stars pick?

The guy I want them to get?  Darnell Nurse.
The guy who I hope against hope that he drops as a dream scenario?  Nichushkin.
The guy I think they likely end up with if they sit at #10?  Ristolainen.

That is the best I can do.

Go get em, Mr Nill.

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Bag of Pucks - June 25

Last night, the Chicago Blackhawks won their 2nd Stanley Cup in 4 years (and in 52 years) in Boston in a fantastic conclusion to a playoffs that really delivered all the way to the Finals with 2 original 6 franchises slugging it out to the end.  Other than not getting a Game 7 on Wednesday night, I am not sure what more could have been asked by these terrific playoffs this season and this feeling that the league is doing very well as a product of great sporting entertainment.

That said, watching other teams participate in the playoffs will always feel just a little bit off.  Sure, it is a fun few months, and sure, it feel intense from the outside, but there is very little exhaustion, exhilaration, and ultimate elation if you don't have a horse in the race.

There is no question that the absence of the Dallas Stars in the playoffs is just enough to send you back into the malaise of wondering just how far away our hometown franchise is from ever returning to the glory of the good ol' days.  And when such discussions come up, it is easy to feel like those days are impossible to attain again.  5 years and counting.

And that is what faces this organization that seems determined to break out of the cycle that they are mired in.

Since we last talked on these topics, the Stars have hired a respected and experienced General Manager in Jim Nill from Detroit.  His credentials and respect level in the league are through the roof and he is regarded as just the guy who would have the overall vision to make this work.

Nill then conducted his own lengthy and thorough coaching search, eventually ending up with a new Head Coach in the form of Lindy Ruff, a man who is equally respected and experienced with a tenure in Buffalo that only Barry Trotz can look down upon in the modern NHL.  So, you have 2 guys who had not been in their same capacities in their same franchises since before the Dallas Stars acquired Brett Hull, are now combining their track records and attempting to continue to build this thing back up.

I think those 2 moves in particular should be enough to show us that the Stars are determined to figure this out, thanks to a new owner in Tom Gaglardi who seems tired of mediocrity already.  I am a big fan of Joe Nieuwendyk and was just starting to really admire Glen Gulatzan for their positive characteristics, but it is nearly impossible to shoot holes in the idea of 2 stable, committed, and successful men working together at the two most important spots in the hockey operations to figure this out.

Now, before we get carried away in this group's ability to convert everything into chicken salad overnight, we should remember that the Blackhawks and Bruins are not entirely in the spots they were last night because of fantastic management.  That helps, but it also helps to have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews up front, with Duncan Keith behind them in Chicago - you know, with Marion Hossa, Patrick Sharp, Brent Seabrook, and on and on and on filling in the gaps.  In Boston, Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic, and a host of parts that fit perfectly put the Bruins in a spot where they have won a Cup, lost another, and are in the hunt each year.  That isn't because the suits have bigger brains than the competition.  It is because their building took long years and wrong turns and finally they hit on something that could compete for it all.

And that requires elite talent at the top.  Something the Stars will ultimately need to hit on.  Ruff and Nill cannot win with a collection of ordinary talent.  They will need to find pieces that seem to be missing right now - players who are clear as the best the hockey world has to offer.  Like just about any sport, those teams, like the Blackhawks who can collect 3 of the top 20 players in the league or 6 of the top 75 or whatever disproportionate stack of dominant players to place together in this salary capped environment that has 30 franchises will have the distinct advantage.

Looking at the Stars cupboards, they have a wonderful collection of players that seem to be talented and capable of playing in the NHL between the ages of 18-24.  They seem rather stacked in "solid" NHL talent and youth, thanks to the way the Nieuwendyk regime was able to flip assets for futures in the last two years.

But, is there "elite" talent here?  Is there a Toews or a Kane or a Hossa or a Keith?

I believe Jamie Benn has a chance to be that player and on many nights is already there.

What else?  I am still holding out hope that Jamie Oleksiak can be a dominant top pairing defensemen when he has had enough time in the oven.  Brenden Dillon took such strides these last 3 years that I wonder if we are foolish to act like we know his ceiling.  Brett Ritchie has been described as a player with fantastic upside and there are other kids in the system that could be better than "solid".  But, as it stands, the bin marked "solid" appears to be full and in great shape.  But, the bin that allows a team to compete for Cups is marked "elite" and while there might be some potential in that bin, for the most part it is where much of the league sits normally - close to empty.

They know this.  They know that they have lots of 6's and 7's, but they need a 9 or a 10 to make this thing really sing.  Of course, that is like a football team saying that they are a Tom Brady away from being a great team.  That is both obvious and ridiculous - so is pretty much everyone.  But, it is often true.

Elite talent generally requires that you pick #1 or #2 or certainly in the Top 5 picks of a draft to get someone like that.  In Chicago's case, Kane was #1, Toews was #3 overall.  Like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and many of the best of the best, they are all gone very early at the top of the draft.  If you never pick up top, then, like many other sports, you have to either get lucky or try to win with a collection of solid pieces, but never have the very best players in the game.  In can be done, but it surely is not very likely.

Which leaves the Stars with some interesting questions in a year where they have lots of money, lots of picks, and lots of holes on their squad.  Do they combine these resources to go for a bold strike up the draft board?  

The 2013 NHL Draft looks really strong.  The Stars should have some great choices at #10 and a few I am very excited about.  However, the 3 "elite" talents at the top of the board are, as you would expect, going to be gone in before pick #4.

So, do they attempt to give up multiple picks to shoot up the board?  That doesn't really seem like Nill's style, but then, I do concede that I don't really know his style very well.  And that is the wildcard of this most important offseason.

We should expect that they are still short of centers and top-pairing defensemen.  But, they are also short of elite, and therefore, elite potential should trump any short term needs - thus giving the best player available.

I have names and a stacked board that I will try to get out later in the week for pick #10, but I think the bigger question remains on whether they are willing to shoot up the board or to use #10 to trade for a veteran who could put them right in the playoff mix for next season.

Sergei Gonchar is an interesting move that seems to indicate that others on the blue-line might be on their way out in a summer that could have a few aggressive trades ahead.  That puts the entire league in play and makes guessing seem even more impossible.  The Stars have trade chips to use and the league is their canvas to paint their new vision.

They have new men in charge, a new color scheme that is growing on me, and a team that has a group that can grow together.  They have no contracts that are millstones nor do they have any other resources that must be moved out who are blocking kids.  They have an almost alarmingly blank slate and an eager bunch who want to succeed.

I know it is late June and the Stars haven't been in the playoffs since 2008.  But, I am really excited about the next 2 weeks of moves and the season that lies ahead.

Like Charlie Brown running to a ball that Lucy holds, I am optimistic that this crew can accomplish the goals that we all have for them, if we give them a little time to make it all happen.

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