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Showing posts with label Morning After. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Morning After. Show all posts

Monday, 9 September 2013

The Morning After: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (1-0)

Posted on 07:01 by Unknown


Takeaways!  Takeaways!  And more takeaways!

Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli coached it, the players listened, and look, in the season opener, there were more gifts given by the generous New York Giants offense than the Cowboys would normally get in a month!

Is all that glitters really gold?  Are the Cowboys now the Chicago and Tampa teams that made this scheme famous for its punishment and its constant theft of the ball?  And if all you have to do is emphasize it, what were all those other coaches doing around here?  6 takeaways left Eli Manning shaking his head, Tom Coughlin cussing up a storm, and it greatly assisted the Cowboys finally beating the rivals from New York in the new stadium in their 5th attempt, 36-31.

For one night, no one is goofing about the Kiffin hire and the potential impacts that could be felt in this tight NFC East.  If the Cowboys can go from their mark last season of 16 takeaways and move it up to the league average of 25, then doesn't it stand to reason that would be the difference in winning the division after coming up a game short (or a Dez finger-tip short) in 2012?

Well, maybe.  Actually, what people don't talk about when they look at takeaways is that the Cowboys have been reasonably close to the NFL average over the last stretch of years, despite perception.  In 2012, they were woefully bad in taking the ball away, but replacement-level players at most positions in the 2nd half of 2012 certainly didn't help that figure at all - nor the overall legacy of Rob Ryan.  But, a broader look shows that from 2007-2011 in a 5-season stretch, the Cowboys took the ball away 127 times which is under the league average mark of 133, but only by about one takeaway every 13 games.

In a league where the number of turnovers has diminished greatly over the last decade but still decides most games, your average NFL team takes the ball away 25 times a season.  And the Cowboys took the ball from the Giants 6 times last night.  That number is absurd and puts them on pace for 96.   But, if they can get a short field even twice a game in 2013, you will see a dramatic change in fortune for this entire squad, guaranteed.

We assume that Sunday Night was a beautiful confluence of events - some random, some not - that fell in the Cowboys favor.  Both teams fumbled multiple times, but the Cowboys recovered their two, and the Giants lost all three of their miscues.  That, we have learned from years of following the sport, is random.  There is no team that is better or worse at recovering fumbles over a large sample.

But, causing fumbles and interceptions?  Ripping the ball away from the carrier like Nick Hayden and Barry Church did that caused David Wilson to have a spot over on the sideline next to his coach?  Well, those are not random at all.  Those are players deciding that they aren't just trying to stop the ball carrier, they want to rob him, too.  And that flair is what any Dallas fan has to be excited about from a defense that is comprised of both star players and unknowns.  They attacked last night and showed an energy that was quite impressive.  The very optimistic idea that they could "get there with 4" actually happened;  the Cowboys front 4 - despite no Jay Ratliff or Anthony Spencer - generated a reasonable amount of pressure on the Giants banged-up OL all night, causing Eli some distress as he threw a giant yardage total - and 3 crucial interceptions.

There is so much more to discuss, but you simply have to lead with your defense shortening your field on a number of occasions and stopping the Giants enough - despite some very gaudy yardage numbers.  And if someone like me is going to blow off the idea of lots of yards - like the last meeting between these two teams when Romo and the offense rolled up plenty of yards but were foiled by too many giveaways, well, then we can easily see the parallels between last night and previous Giants' visits.

It was a game that might require multiple visits to fully digest, but maybe the difference in the game came down to a 3rd and 11 for the Cowboys at the Giants' 14 yard line late in the 1st Quarter.  It was a play that made many recall other prime-time affairs where Tony Romo and his receivers might not fully be on the same page with a play call or the intended route versus throw.  On this occasion, rookie Terrence Williams was receiving his first NFL throw, but he was not looking when the ball arrived.  Instead, he thought he was running a slant and go.  Romo was throwing for a slant.  Williams, thinking it was a fake, never crossed the face of the corner, and Prince Amukamara couldn't believe his good fortune as Romo threw the ball right at him.  The ball caromed off Amukamara and right to new safety Ryan Mundy who was off to the races at his own 8 and nothing but turf in front of him and a caravan of blue jerseys.  But 92 yards is a long run and despite having a substantial head start on DeMarco Murray - who was running a flair to the right of the play (the opposite side of the field) - was chased down barely at the 1-yard line.  Tremendous hustle by Murray that was then capitalized on in the next few snaps as Nick Hayden stuffed a run and George Selvie pulled down Eli for a sack and the Giants had to settle for a field goal - all thanks to DeMarco not giving up on a play.

And that is certainly not all Murray did last night by any stretch.  20 carries of hard running and 10 more targets from Romo in the passing game means that Murray wakes up a man with plenty of bruises.  But he also gave plenty of bruises out and ran with that style that makes you think he is the real deal.  I would take issue with those that suggest the run game was unproductive.  23 carries for 87 yards is not ideal, but it isn't horrid.  It also dominates time of possession, keeps your defense fresh, and displays a physicality that the Cowboys have lacked for a few seasons.

Which leads us to the offensive line.  I look forward to breaking things down much further as the week goes on and the coach's film becomes available, but my first impressions were quite passable.  I found the pass protection generally very solid, starting with Tyron Smith doing well against a banged up Jason Pierre Paul or whoever took him on.  But inside, with new left guard Ronald Leary and rookie center Travis Frederick, one would have to suggest that both played incredibly well.  Leary, in particular, has a ways to go to handle everything and everyone that is thrown at him from week to week, but the strength and battle that both of those guys appear to have is the most welcome of additions to this offensive group.

With no Brian Waters available for the opener, Mackenzy Bernadeau had to play at right guard, and Linval Joseph abused him on the way to a Romo sack late in the game, and Doug Free will get largely blamed for the play that might have broken a few ribs of Romo's in the 2nd Quarter - although I don't know if he is to blame at all.

Free was in pass protection and had Mathias Kiwanuka blocked pretty well, as linebacker Jacquian Williams blitzed on a rare occasion.  But, instead of running at Romo and being picked up by a waiting DeMarco Murray, he ran away from the QB and right at Doug Free in a unique stunt idea.  Free was knocked off his feet - as any tackle would be if blindsided by a sprinting linebacker while trying to block someone in a different direction and that left Murray to try to sort out what was happening and to pick up Kiwanuka which did not work out well.  Kiwanuka pushed Murray aside and then put his helmet/shoulder pads right into Romo's ribs and looked like he did some considerable damage.  You never see a WLB and a LDE stunt to that extent and there is no question that the element of surprise is what made that stunt work so well.  They never blitz, and they definitely never blitz/stunt.  Sometimes their scheme gets you, and they almost took out Romo in the process (medical exams pending).

It was a game that certainly did not come easily.  Right until Brandon Carr picked off and returned yet another interception for a touchdown, it seemed that the Giants were staying alive and threatening another gutting comeback - just like their win in Arlington in 2011 where they were down 2 scores in the 4th Quarter and still pulled everything off perfectly to win.

But, credit the Cowboys.  Credit them for playing with a lead for most of the night.  In fact, they led for 28:21 of the game, which may not be a number that impresses you until you hear this next stat.  In all of 2012, in all 8 home games, they led their opponent for a total of 36:36.  Trust me, last night was a rarity to lead for that long.

At different times, Romo, Dez Bryant, and Morris Claiborne all laid on the turf and appeared to be injured.  We don't know if any are serious, but Romo and Bryant both looked pretty serious when they happened, and so we are quickly reminded how physical this sport is when the regular season hits start happening.  Bryant, with 8 targets for 4 receptions and 22 yards, had a quiet night, but he will have plenty to say about this season as it goes.  For now, he is starting to see that teams like the Giants are going to hang a safety over his corner all night long and take their chances with making Miles Austin and the running game.

It was a fantastic win overall.  It was a divisional home game on a Sunday Night, so it felt bigger than 1 out of 16, because it is.  This team needs confidence and results quickly.  And with September maybe the easiest of the 4 months in terms of opponents and strength of schedule, it is vital to get out of the gates on a dead sprint.  Sure, the Giants were generous, but you must take advantage of that generosity, and that wasn't happening early in the game.

We knew there were going to be issues in the secondary, and the corner blitz by Orlando Scandrick that ended up with a 70-yard Touchdown to Victor Cruz demonstrated that quite clearly.  That growth will need to continue against what we assume will be lesser passing attacks until Denver comes to town.

But, when you withstand the weapons of New York, get a divisional win under your belt, and make key plays at key moments, you try to let yourself enjoy a win for a few moments before you worry about what lies ahead.  This team has a fan base that is excellent at seeing the cup half empty, but I would argue that there was plenty to like about last night and it starts with the overall swarming energy that the squad had for much of the night.  From Dwayne Harris and JJ Wilcox covering kicks and punts like madmen to previously out-of-work defensive linemen playing like they are not going to waste this golden opportunity.  I saw plenty to clean up, but after being reminded again yesterday how close the teams in this league are, there is never cause for excess negativity following a tough win like that over a hated foe.

Things need to continue to develop and the injuries obviously need to be avoided, but overall, that was exactly what the Cowboys needed last night.

They are out of the gates with a victory.
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Posted in 2013 Cowboys, Morning After, turnovers | No comments

Monday, 4 February 2013

The Morning After: Super Bowl 47

Posted on 07:18 by Unknown
One always must be careful when they are hours from an event to not get carried away with superlatives and labels and proclamations that this was one of the best things someone has ever seen, only to re-read accounts a year or two later and realize that it missed the mark with its historical value.

However, in terms of getting a Super Bowl that seemed to contain just about everything, I would have to believe that Super Bowl 47 will stand the test of time.  This game was filled with everything.  Including a blow-out and a nail-biter in the very same game.  Hard to believe, but this particular Super Bowl continued a string of high drama Super Bowls that goes back now 6 big games.  If you start with the first Patriots-Giants games, continue with Steelers-Cardinals, on through Manning's Pick-6 against the Saints as the Colts were driving to tie with 3:24 to go, the Packer-Steelers, Giants-Patriots again, and now this?  Awesome, awesome stuff.

In the history of the NFL championship game re-labeled the Super Bowl, you have to go back a long, long way to find even 3 consecutive close games that were in doubt late in the 4th Quarter.  In fact, I searched all the way back to World War 2 - long before the 2-minute warning existed - and did not see a string of 3.  So, since we are at 6 and counting, this is a fantastic string of drama we are on.

But, who ever saw this game being full of drama late?  At 28-6, we had thoughts of all of the many blow-outs in Super Bowl history, including several in this very city and this very stadium.  This one had Cowboys-Broncos, Raiders-Eagles, Bears-Patriots, and 49ers-Broncos written all over it early in the 3rd Quarter.

And then the unforgettable story-line of the power outage hit right after Jacoby Jones had appeared to have locked up the Super Bowl MVP award given that he had his handprint on the two most exciting plays of the game to that point.  35 minutes we sat there and wondered what was going to happen next as the Superdome had lost huge grids of lights and power.  CBS scrambled to find anyone who could still use their equipment as it was clear Jim Nantz and Phil Simms could not.  Finally, after plenty of $4 million-a-piece commercials ran in a row, a disheveled Steve Tasker took to the microphone and tried to explain what was happening.

Given that it was only 98 seconds into the 2nd half, it was a very odd stoppage to an already elongated intermission for the Super Bowl and Beyonce.  The effects of the 2nd intermission and the almost 90 minutes the Ravens offense went between snaps will be long debated, but now, given that they survived the 49ers rally, it will be but a footnote in history.

It was 28-6 when the lights returned, only for the 49ers to then score on the first 3 possessions that started after play resumed.  Michael Crabtree broke tackles and scored, then Frank Gore barreled in on a beautiful sweep, and then the Niners stubbed their toe and settled for a FG that was first missed and then made after a penalty for running into the kicker, putting the score at 28-23, Ravens, with 3:04 left in the 3rd Quarter.

At this juncture of the game, we would find out plenty about the Ravens.  In particular, we would find out plenty about their coach, John Harbaugh and their QB, Joe Flacco.  They would not be required to play the final 18 minutes of the game against a rolling 49ers squad that has momentum and swagger, and arguably a better roster.

Harbaugh, one year older than his more famous younger brother, Jim, had a number of occasions this year where he had to make decisions.  And there are many where he decided to make the very aggressive choice.  The biggest one over the course of the season was to fire his offensive coordinator, the very respected Cam Cameron, on December 10th, when the team sat at 9-4 and had a 2 game lead in their division.

I can only imagine the controversy this might have caused locally, if the Cowboys would ever do something so bold and dare I say, reckless, when sitting so close to the playoffs with a divisional crown seemingly in the bag.  They then lost 2 of their final 3 games to finish 10-6 and entered the playoffs with the #4 seed and certainly could not be called one of the hottest teams entering the tournament, since they had lost 4 of 5 in December.

Harbaugh also called a game yesterday that seemed opposite of risk-aversion.  He was rolling the dice with a fake field goal that seemed ridiculous at the time, up 14-3.  He also called or at least authorized the call of the 3rd and 1 back-shoulder fade to Anquan Boldin, when it appeared to be a perfect time to ask Ray Rice to get you 1 yard after Jim Harbaugh properly challenged a spot the play before.  This call with 7 minutes to go is another case - like the fake FG - that if it doesn't work, it will be one of the plays that will get him barbecued.  It is a classic case of stepping away from conventional wisdom and taking a chance.  A chance that shows faith in a QB and a WR to make a play and then players who deliver.

Which brings us to his QB, Flacco, who seems to do a nice job of accomplishing plenty in this league without ever getting credit.  He plays a style that seems under-valued in a league that loves to proclaim QBs the be-all, end-all of every franchise.  And here he is, with 9 playoff victories under his belt just 5 seasons into his career, with a Super Bowl ring that he did plenty of the heavy lifting.

So, was he improperly ignored before this last month?  Yes and No.  Here is Flacco, with a 5-4 playoff record to this juncture, with a QB rating in the post-season of 70.  The league average is in the low-80s, so 70 is pretty bad.  During that time, he averaged about 170 yards per game and totaled 8 TDs and 8 INTs in the post-season.  To compare, Mark Sanchez has a playoff rating of 94, with 9 TDs and 3 INTs over a similar span and 192 yards per game.  And both were placed in a bin of QBs who were winning games in the post-season, but were they really winning them or were they simply the QB on a team that was winning them?

On to 2012, where Flacco became the only QB ever to have 4 playoff games in one post-season with a passer rating over 100.  He averaged 285 yards per game in this tournament and had 11 TDs without a single interception.  In fact, in beating Peyton Manning on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  In beating Tom Brady on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  And finally, last night, with the world watching, he threw 3 TDs in taking down the San Francisco 49ers.

After 5 seasons, he has equaled the win total of Tom Brady for most playoff victories (9) at that point of a career.  Think about that for a second.  And those 3rd Down plays he made in the 4th Quarter, including the check-off to the fade to Boldin helped them secure the game.

A game that was certainly in doubt on the final 49ers drive.  Colin Kaepernick had an excellent game, in my opinion, as well.  Even when they were down 28-6, it was extremely difficult to say he was the reason why.  Sure, he sailed an interception to Ed Reed on a throw down the middle, but overall, he was putting passes right on the money and was even betrayed a few times by receivers that were asked to make difficult catches and were unable to do so.  But for a rookie, we have seen that the 49ers appear to have a real stud with which to build their offense around for years to come.

Jim Harbaugh also followed his gut this season and had the resolve to make that change at QB that seemed to leave conventional thinking as well.  But, he was rewarded with it by now having a clear picture of what his young QB is capable of before he had to choose what to do with his veteran.  Now, as their season ends in disappointment, there is no question that Alex Smith will need to go elsewhere to ever start again.

But, they will be kicking themselves this entire off-season for that final sequence.  They took the ball from their own 20 with 4:19 to go, down 34-29.  A touchdown likely gives them the Super Bowl, provided they don't score too soon.  And they almost did after a long Crabtree reception and a strong run from Gore took the ball down to the Baltimore 7 with 2:39 left.

From there, a run moves them to the 5 at the 2 minute warning.  Now, they have 3 throws to Michael Crabtree on the final 3 offensive snaps of the game.  All 3 are incomplete and all 3 were not really even close.  In fact, in doing so, the 49ers also wasted a timeout that pretty much sealed their fate.  Had everything gone the same except for the wasted timeout, they likely would have still had another drive after another Ted Ginn return from mid-field.

Should the 49ers have run the ball again?  Or at least put a play on that allows Kaepernick to be at his best with a run/pass option?  Well, the Ravens made sure that if he did anything, it was going to be under enormous pressure because again, Baltimore is not afraid to roll the dice.  They blitzed hard on 3rd down and harder on 4th.  If anything, you would have liked to have found Vernon Davis, but he never even looked in that direction on the backside from his triple receivers.

But, with only 1 timeout left, the Ravens did not have to ever return the ball with enough time for even one more snap.

In the end, the Ravens had built up enough to hold on.  Barely.  The game went to its final seconds and both teams played a heck of a game.

The Ravens now have their 2nd Super Bowl trophy and the 49ers remain at 5.  New Orleans, power outage notwithstanding, had a fantastic week and is back in the Super Bowl mix after a long wait.

And here we sit, 213 days before the next meaningful NFL game is played.

Sorry to end this recap on such a downer.  Hurry back, NFL.
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Posted in FSSW, Morning After, Super Bowl | No comments

Monday, 21 January 2013

The Morning After: Championship Weekend

Posted on 07:37 by Unknown
We are down to just 1 game and the unlikeliest of match ups, indeed, as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have both won on the road on Championship Weekend to march all of the way to Super Bowl 47 in New Orleans in 13 days.

This is a very unlikely scenario that Cowboys fans remember well.  For it was on Championship weekend 1992 when the young and inexperienced Cowboys went to Candlestick Park and got the ticket to Pasadena on the same day that Buffalo won big in Miami to meet them at Super Bowl 27.

Super Bowl 32 was the only other time since the merger it has happened, with Green Bay winning at Candlestick against the 49ers and Denver winning at Pittsburgh that same afternoon and the two teams battled 2 weeks later in San Diego for John Elway's date with destiny.

It generally seems to pay well to play championship games at home, but Atlanta and New England's days ended in tears yesterday, and for just the third time ever, the two road teams advance to the Super Bowl.

Atlanta's fate seems extra cruel, as they are being asked to take the extra long and difficult, but traditional route of taking a small step each and every year.  They finally won a playoff game last week after several years of disappointment, but when they were tossing San Francisco all over the field yesterday in the early going, it was just setting them up for another monumental collapse as a 17-0 lead vanished in rather quick fashion.

Then, their last attempt appeared to be just a feeble and hopeful toss to the first down marker and the Matt Ryan pass to Roddy White fell to the ground and the dream was dashed yet again.  A run that began in 2008 with the hiring of Mike Smith and the drafting of Matt Ryan will have to wait another year.  They have a record of 56-24 in regular season games in the last 5 seasons, but still feel like they are on the outside trying to figure out how to get in.

Back to the drawing board for the Falcons, who have to feel like they are so close and yet so far away.

The 49ers advance feeling as if this Colin Kaepernick dream run just won't stop.  And maybe it won't.  He didn't have to run almost at all, unlike last week against Green Bay, and simply let Vernon Davis and Frank Gore compliment a strong 2nd half performance from that strong defense to be the difference.  Really, statistically speaking, it is difficult to figure out exactly how the Falcons let this one get away.

Meanwhile, the other game is not nearly as difficult to figure.  One QB has a rating of 106 and the other sits at 62.  There are plenty of things that go into the QB rating that may or may not reflect completely on the QB - a dropped pass here and there - but in the end, when one QB out-produces the other like that, it is not hard to see how the game is a resounding victory.  But, Joe Flacco beating down Tom Brady like that?  Wow.

Actually, it is a great reminder of just how difficult it is to win a ring in this league.  We lose so much sight of that reality, but I try to say it all of the time.  Every season, 31 teams finish the year disappointed.  31 of 32.  That means, your odds of winning a trophy ever are very, very remote.  The odds of winning 4 in one career?  Almost impossible.

This should help us appreciate the career of Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw a bit more.  Bart Starr won 5 championships before most of us were ever alive.  Otto Graham before him did very well, but in our lifetimes, the ability to win a handful of rings is as remote as it has ever been.  More teams, larger playoffs, more parity, and there you have a guy like Brady trying to push away from Troy Aikman and win his 4th.

But, that is way easier in magazine predictions than it is in reality.  Way, way easier.

Brady has been trying to get his 4th ring with Bill Belichick since they won #3 by beating Terrell Owens, Donovan McNabb, and the Philadelphia Eagles in Jacksonville after the 2004 season.  If you feel like 2004 was a lifetime ago, well, it was.  Duante Culpepper passed for the most yards, Shaun Alexander was the leading rusher, and Muhsin Muhammad was the league's leading receiver.  Heck, Ben Roethlisberger was rookie of the year and Eli Manning was just finishing season #1, too.

And ever since that day, Brady/Belichick have been trying to win another one.  And every day since then, they have been the "team to beat".

2,907 days as of today.  And counting.

Just to put that in perspective, Troy Aikman and the Cowboys won Super Bowl 30 in Tempe Arizona on January 28, 1996.  Then, Aikman retired when Lavar Arrington smashed him into the Texas Stadium turf late in the 2000 season.  That was a span of 1,779 days from the time Aikman started to achieve his 4th ring until he retired.  And Brady passed that mark a long, long time ago.

Now, in fairness to Brady, he is a David Tyree miracle and a Wes Welker drop from having 5 rings.  But, then again, he is a Tuck rule from having 2, so, I am not sure we can start playing the "ifs and buts" game when it comes to rings.

The point is that it is amazingly difficult to win a Super Bowl (or any championship in any major sport).  As fans, we marginalize the difficulty and blame a particular player in a team sport.  I am not here to remind people that football is so much more than a QB, but since we all accept that the best starting QBs earn a million dollars for each game they start, it is a losing battle anyway.

Winning one Super Bowl is next to impossible for NFL QBs.  So much has to happen correctly and fall into place.

 I remember thinking that Brett Favre had several more in him when he won his Super Bowl at age 27. He was winning the MVP at age 26, 27, and 28, and surely he would break through for another ring.  It never happened.

John Elway was a rookie at age 23 in 1983.  He waited until he was 37 and 38 to finally win his.  Most people were sure it would never happen for him.

Peyton Manning entered the league at 23 and worked until he was 30 before he won a ring in 2006.  I remember the post game talking heads said that now that he broke through, he could go on a run and win a bunch more.  He still searches for ring #2 and will turn 37 in 2 months.

I am always interested in this search Brady is on - partly because odds are really good that we will keep picking the Patriots until he retires, but that they will never win another Super Bowl with him.  Why is that?  Because it is really, really hard to win a Super Bowl!  Even if you are one of the best teams in the league every year.  He won in his 24, 26, and 27 year old seasons.  But, he will turn 36 in August.

Aikman won his 3 at 26, 27, and 29.  Elway is the exception, not the rule.

The point is, I cannot tell you how maddening it is to hear the nonsense about how "surely Aaron Rodgers" will win 2 or 3 more.  Or, it is a matter of time for Drew Brees or anyone.

It is next to impossible to win a ring.  But, as fans, the second they win one, we want to start the clock on their next one.  And from there, get out our charts to see where they rank with the legends.  It is fun to say, Manning or Favre "only won one time", when in reality, does anyone know how insanely difficult "only winning one" really is?

Would we say, "he only climbed Mount Everest once?"

So, here is Brady.  With ONLY 3.  We wonder if he will ever find that elusive 4th.  Then, we ask if Matt Ryan is just "another Tony Romo?" - whatever that means.

In 13 days, another QB will win his 1st title.  This will be the first Super Bowl without a Manning, Brady, or Roethlisberger since Rich Gannon and the Raiders took on Brad Johnson and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the game to end all games.

And then, we will debate where Joe Flacco or Colin Kaepernick belong in our historical frame of reference as if they have figured out how to do something that Dan Marino never could.  We do all of this because it is the easiest way to explain football to each-other.

We measure greatness by counting the rings.  Even if it is so much more complicated than that.

And we never learn how truly difficult it is to win the big one.

Even for Brady and Aikman.  As easy as they made it look, they would tell you it was next to impossible to do it

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Posted in 2012 NFL Playoffs, FSSW, Morning After | No comments

Monday, 14 January 2013

The Morning After: NFL Divisional Round

Posted on 07:19 by Unknown

It is becoming more difficult to deny the existence of a spectacular "sea change" in the NFL in 2012.

It is happening.  The NFL is having a revolution.  And the revolution is being televised for all of us to see.

Tactics in football can often fly under the radar as millions watch every game.  When a team shifts its defensive line from a 4-3 over front to a 4-3 under, nobody notes it or knows what it means.

But, when Colin Kaepernick is running down the field for a 56-yard touchdown run in the playoffs, it is a play of fantastic substance that is swinging the balance of power in the NFL.

He ran for 181 yards and passed for 263 more as the 49ers demolished Green Bay in front of the eyes of the football world.  This, in a game in which he was the biggest question mark and one which started with Kaepernick throwing an interception for a Touchdown the other way.

He was fantastic and despite his lack of experience, or even more damning, "big game experience", it was surely a game in which he wasn't ready.  But, then he went and did that.  He ran for more yards than any QB ever did in any game in the National Football League.  And here is an even more stunning number:  He ran for 3 yards after contact.

That means, according to ESPN, he ran for 178 yards without contact.  Please, allow a moment for that to sink in.

He ran for 178 yards without being touched.

And this is the revolution of the NFL game happening right before our eyes.

99 of his yards were on the zone-read option, a play we are all becoming quite familiar with.  It features a posture out of the shotgun that allows for an inside run to a RB or an outside counter by the QB that is primarily based on the movement of the unblocked edge rusher.  If he crashes inside to get the runner, the QB keeps and has the ability to turn the corner on the unblocked man.  If he stays high to keep the corner closed off, then they take the inside run without support from the crash.  It is a multiple choice question in which the defense can hardly ever guess correctly.  It is simple, but the NFL has not gone down this road much in the past because of conventional wisdom.

Ah, conventional wisdom.  No type of wisdom slows down evolution in sports quite like the good ol "way we have always done things".  And, of course, in the NFL, that has told us that you should never run your QB.  He will get killed.  The defenders are too big and fast and strong.  You can run that all you want, but don't come to us when he is getting carried off the field.

But, what if RBs get hurt all of the time?  Is that reckless to run them down the field with the ball in their hands, looking for yardage wherever they can find it?  No.  That is the risk of playing RB.  So, why is QB different?  Usually, because in our head, RBs are built to withstand punishment.  Also, they have the uncanny ability to not take direct hits very often.  The best way to survive the vicious NFL hit is to avoid it, right?

Well, what if we could find a QB who has those same traits?  What if he was fast as a running back - or faster?  Kaepernick ran a 4.53 at the combine, which would put him right there with with some of the faster running backs - Shane Vareen (formerly of California, now of New England) is sold to us as a speedster and ran a 4.50.  Well, Kaepernick is a fraction of a second behind him.  But, a slight fraction at that.

Now, what if the scheme was built around this truth?  What if the coaches really bought in?  And what if it was happening all over the league at the same time?  What if football was changing before your eyes in a way that made you recalculate your thoughts about a sport where Pro-Style I formation is all you hold dear?

What if Russell Wilson, Robert Griffin, Cam Newton, and Kaepernick were all here at the same time?  And what if Geno Smith and Johnny Manziel appear to be next in line?  Are you buying in that this is the new direction of the league or the next passing fad that will disappear soon?

Let's be clear - we have seen fads.  We know the Wildcat rocked the NFL's world for about 1 season.  We also know that one reason this works is because it defies convention and that nobody deals with it at the NFL level.  But, if it hauls off and makes it to the Super Bowl, it will not be quirky anymore - it will be mainstream.  As Smart Football wrote about last month, this is all mostly from the lineage of the air-raid offense, and now that the entire Big 12 is running it (it seems), it will truly be tested if people see it every week.

I confess, despite the fact that my team (part-owner) was getting steam-rolled on Saturday night, I do love the evolution of the NFL game.  The moneyball question in our sport is simple:  Since it appears that teams that have Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees have a decided advantage over teams that don't, how can the rest of the league compete against truly elite QB play?  If it takes 31 points to send those teams home from the playoffs, how can we get 35 from less-than-elite QBs?

The answer might be to find an offensive scheme where our QB can be elite by entering feet into the equation and not simply the arm.  And then find that QB.

There were many QBs before this point that got us to Cam Newton.  How Michael Vick and Tim Tebow (so far) and Vince Young never reached these heights might be a discussion about arm strength,  arm accuracy, football IQ, dedication to the sport, or the fact that they never found the right scheme.  Or, we might consider the fact that 1-year ago yesterday, Tebow was still in the playoffs, QB for the Denver Broncos and pulling off a playoff win with a scheme that was not that far from what we saw on fields this year.

But, his organization and their leader, John Elway, didn't seem to believe in the experiment - especially if Peyton Manning was available.  And who can blame him?

But, Kaepernick is not a "running QB".  He is a very strong passer with accuracy that seems to be strong to quite strong, and the ability to get the ball down the field.  Griffin-like, if you will.  And, he is one of only 4 QBs in the history of college football to run for 20 Touchdowns and pass for 20 Touchdowns in the same season.  The others?  Tebow, Newton, and Manziel.  He was finding Michael Crabtree and friends with great ease at times on Saturday, and all Green Bay could do was shake their heads and go home.

Not all of these QBs are going to ever run for 181 yards in a playoff game.  Geno Smith hardly likes to run at all.  But, he runs that globetrotter ball fake-routine that would make Mike Leach proud, and then make you pay with throws to all angles of the field.  And, he will go in the Top 10 this year (some say #1, but we are 100 days from the draft).

Many are telling us that this won't last because they will get hurt.  You don't want your QB taking hits like that, right?  And yes, there are shades of grey here.  Some QBs are going to learn the hard way that contact comes with a toll.  But, what if a team so believed in the scheme that the 2nd and 3rd string guys also are run/pass hybrid QBs?  Could it work?

Of course, you will always take Andrew Luck if you have a chance.  He is a tremendous athlete, but I would be pretty shocked to see Luck on a zone-read option where he is galloping down the field like Kaepernick or even Russell Wilson - another guy that prefers to beat you with his arm.  But, this might come back to the original question:  If you don't have Brady, Manning, Rodgers or Brees and yet you are playing for the same trophy, do you try to beat them at their own game with Alex Smith, Rex Grossman, or even Matt Schaub?  Or do you try to change your entire thinking about the NFL game, look to Dana Holgorsen and Kliff Kingsbury for inspiration, and match scheme with player in a way where the league is not sure whether to mock you or copy you?

Which leads us to other tentacles of this discussion:  Looking at how Dom Capers was embarrassed by this scheme on Saturday night, do we ask if decorated defensive minds in the NFL are able to adjust to this?  He won a Super Bowl 2 years ago, so he clearly knows what he is doing, but he almost surrendered 600 yards to what appears to be a relatively typical version of this dynamic offense.  It makes you wonder if Monte Kiffin is prepared to deal with the division going through the zone read in Washington.  The Tampa 2 is to slow down the West Coast offense and the greatest show on turf over in St Louis.  How many times did Tampa have to deal with what we are seeing in 2012?

I am not sure anyone knows where this is headed.  And it would have to win a trophy or two before anyone allows it better footing in the annals of football history than the run-and-shoot or the wildcat.  People will always prefer the idea of allowing a QB to drop back in the pocket and throw for 360 and run for nothing, because that is how we all were raised on our NFL football.

But, changes happen.  Bright minds see a problem and rather than running into the walls of failure repeatedly, they try to get creative and figure out a new way around the wall.

And maybe, in 2012, in places like San Francisco, Washington, and Seattle, we are seeing where this league could be heading.

Meanwhile, who knows how many NFL GMs are sifting through the college ranks and wondering who could be the next guy to build this around?

I am not sure Manziel could have picked a better year to do what he just did in the college ranks.  The question no longer seems to be whether he can play in the NFL.  The question seems to be, "how quickly can you get here?"



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Monday, 7 January 2013

The Morning After - Wildcard Weekend 2012

Posted on 07:22 by Unknown
Every Monday of the playoffs, we will spend a few moments on the events of the weekend - sometimes from a Dallas Cowboys perspective - as we size up what the teams in the post-season are telling us about how to get there and to find success in January and ultimately, the first weekend of February.

This weekend, from a prediction standpoint, was actually a wildcard weekend that went exactly as I expected.  I had the Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks advancing, but surely, some of the details were difficult to anticipate and it all sets up a fantastic divisional round that offers some heavyweight battles that should make next weekend memorable.

In particular, the final game of yesterday was clearly the best game of the four.  Washington hosted Seattle in a tight matchup that offered talking points on both sides.

For Seattle, it seemed to demonstrate that although conventional wisdom indicates that they are a team that relies on their home stadium for their success (a premise that although ridiculous is difficult to completely eliminate based on performance) is a nasty, physically-tough team that is ready for a street fight anywhere.

How Seattle managed to sneak under the radar of the NFL these last few years is partly because they do not seem to care what anyone else thinks when it comes to personnel.  And, if you follow the NFL for a while, you see that the teams that color within the lines get preferential treatment, while those that do their own work and ignore what the outside says are on their own.

And when I say that, I am talking about the way they have acquired players since Pete Carroll was brought in 36 months ago (and since Carroll named his own GM, John Schneider - a Ted Thompson disciple from Green Bay.  If you love the draft, it is rather easy to name the team that has produced the most dismay on draft day from the draft-experts in the studios for the networks.  Seattle has constantly been the team that has not used Kiper, McShay, Mayock, or anyone else to cross-check their draft pick homework.

In 2010, you may recall all of the discussion about Seattle taking Earl Thomas over Taylor Mays, including Mays himself blaming his college coach at USC for sabotaging his draft stock.  Instead, Carroll took Thomas from Texas and pretty much knocked that pick out of the park and has an elite safety now who plays center field as well as pretty much anyone.  Meanwhile, Mays, has had a hard time making it onto the field as a pro.

That 2010 draft brought Seattle Thomas - Free Safety, Russell Okung - Starting LT, Kam Chancellor (with pick #133!) - Strong Safety, Golden Tate - slot receiver, and Anthony McCoy - 2nd tight end.

Then, the next year, the 2011 draft did more of the same.  They were laughed at for taking James Carpenter from Alabama in the 1st Round - because the experts did not have a 1st round grade on him. Carpenter is still a project and has spent most of his 2 years hurt as he blew out his ACL in 2011 and remains a question.  But, the 2011 draft also gave them John Moffitt, their starting Right Guard for most of the season, KJ Wright - Startling OLB, Kris Durham, and Richard Sherman (Pick 154!) who might be one of the fiercest cornerbacks in the game right now.

So, that is 8 starters from yesterday in just the 2010 and 2011 draft.

But, then comes 2012.  Could they do it again?

In the 1st Round they took a pass rusher in Bruce Irvin who nobody thought was worth the gamble that high due to many off-field and on-field question marks.  The ridicule after this pick also cited the Carpenter pick and the discussion on TV was that Seattle is reckless in their draft room.  But, they trusted their homework and took Irvin who has returned their faith with a bunch of sacks - more than any other rookie.  Then, in the 2nd round, they took Bobby Wagner from Utah State to patrol the middle.  In the 3rd Round, it was an undersized QB in Russell Wilson from Wisconsin who surely wouldn't start for them all season, right?  Wrong again, know-it-alls.

There are other players from the 2012 draft that are helping, too, as rookies, but maybe my favorite story is their 7th round pick, a guy named JR Sweezy.  He played DT at NC State one year ago, and the Seahawks drafted him in the 7th round because they wanted to convert him to a guard.

And you know who started at RG for them yesterday?  That's right - their 7th round Defensive Tackle. Meanwhile, their starting RT was off the Green Bay practice squad in 2010, and their starting LG was the other McQuistan brother who is on his 4th team since 2006.

So, they have a physically punishing football team and most of their players have been acquired since 2010 when Carroll and Schneider were brought on board.

They have built their entire secondary - you know, the one people are calling the best in football - since then, along with the entire OL that Marshawn Lynch runs behind save for the center, Max Unger who is a hold-over from the 2009 draft.

They have sprinkled in players who other teams did not value that highly, with a few free agent purchases, and low-and-behold, they appear to have a young, promising team for 2012 and beyond.

And the best part?  It doesn't seem that they cared what anyone thought about their picks.  They did their own work, did not compare notes, did not care about favorable reviews, and believed in their system.

It might not be enough to win the Super Bowl this year, but it is interesting to see a door-mat figure out how to figure it out.

Meanwhile, the Redskins seem to have taken a decidedly different route to the same game yesterday.  They appear to have put all of their eggs in the basket of getting a potentially generational talent to their franchise and that is why the moment in the game where Robert Griffin's knee buckled caused most football fans to gasp in horror.

Seldom has a team had so much invested in one player who had also delivered so much already that the investment seemed proper.  But, as Cowboys fans know, Griffin has been limp-jogging for most of the last month and despite looking as if he planned on willing his team all of the way to a trophy, reality caught up yesterday at a rather innocuous moment in the contest.

Griffin's knee buckled and all you could consider were the times where a franchise had a prodigy-level talent who was dealing with a health issue that might jeopardize everything and they either pulled the plug completely - like the same city's baseball team did with Stephen Strasburg just this year - or took extreme caution at every turn - like the Dallas Mavericks' coach Don Nelson insisted on back in 2003 when Dirk Nowitzki's knee was the concern.

But, this one was tricky.  There were doctor's reports and a player's wishes to sort through.  There was the cliche' about this being "the once-in-a-lifetime chance" with a divisional title and a home playoff game to consider.  There was the painted dirt that the Redskins call a playing surface this late in the year.  And there was a roster that only boasted another rookie QB.

Mike Shanahan had built his entire scheme around this singular talent, so he trusted his eyes and the words of his QB and went for it.  And it failed.  And now, people want answers for how he could be so reckless with his player at just the wrong time.

Shanahan said he trusted his gut and his QB's wishes.  They were only in that spot because RG3 got them there, so you can understand the position.  It is easy to sit here and say that this is too reckless in this situation, but at the core of all of this is that this sport is based on the warrior mentality this time of year to play through injuries and drag your body out there for your team.

It didn't work this time, and who knows now what this does to Griffin's long term potential, but you can now see how complex this issue is.  The medical people said he passed the tests, but then hedge their bets by saying they were still unsure or nervous about the outcome.  That hardly seems definitive except in that they were clearly covering their own rear ends.

I hope that one of the most exciting players to arrive in the NFL recovers well and that we get to see his career as it was promised, but, I don't feel 2nd-guessing the Redskins decision making process on this particular situation is anything more than outcome-based logic.  Because he got hurt, it looks like a bad decision.  But, since time travel is not available to any of us, one has a hard time fairly saying that the Redskins should have ignored their QB's wishes.  It was only because of his courage last week that they were hosting this game to begin with.

Great stuff in Washington in a game that eliminates the entire NFC East from the playoffs.  And now, we try to come to grips with there being just 7 games left in the season.
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Monday, 31 December 2012

The Morning After: Redskins 28, Cowboys 18 (8-8)

Posted on 08:06 by Unknown


That is how another Cowboys season ends.  That is how 2012, like so many years before it, ends.  A season that had plenty of things to like and plenty of things to not like, ends in tears on the final day of the season.

Haven't we been here before?  Several times?

But, for some reason, this one feels a bit different to me than 2011.  In 2011, I thought the Cowboys were overwhelmed by the New York Giants in the final game of the season because of the simple mismatch problems that they had no answer for.  There was no strategy or posture that was going to allow that Cowboys OL to handle the DL of the Giants.  It just wasn't happening.  And Terence Newman to stick with Victor Cruz?  That wasn't happening either.

But, this one, despite the familiar result, seemed a much different style of loss.  To me, especially from an offensive standpoint, this one felt like the Cowboys suffered the most disappointing of failures on the field at the home of their hated rivals.  This one felt like a self-inflicted defeat, full of wasted opportunities and poor execution.

Sure, the Redskins blitzed at every opportunity.  In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun.  They blitzed and blitzed.  And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12.  They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not.

Now, when a team blitzes that often, they are telling you two things.  1) they are saying that they think you do not handle pressure very well and if they speed up your situations and hit you a bit, you will perform at a lower level than if they allow you to get comfortable.  But, don't forget what they are also saying, 2) they are suggesting that they don't think they can get pressure any other way.  With Brian Orakpo on injured reserve, the Redskins are a team that is not loaded with pass rushing excellence.  If they just send 4, they likely do not get sacks.  So, they add players to the rush which subtracts players from coverage.

And you must make them pay.

That is why this offensive performance must be positioned as nothing short of a failure.  The job, in particular by Tony Romo - the man who is most responsible for the Cowboys being in this position to begin with - was just not nearly at the level it needed to be to win a tough divisional road game on the final night of the season.

Romo, as I am sure you are well aware, picked a horrendous time for his 4th multi-interception game of 2012.  In those 4 games, as you might imagine, the Cowboys were winless.  The first 3 were home games against the Bears, Giants, and these same Redskins, but this one had all of the trimmings of a playoff game and the picks were all damaging and key.

But, no interception of Romo's career might hurt as much as the last one of 2012.  For that was a pick that comes down to that moment that everyone dreams when they discuss the credentials of their favorite QB.  They always ask the question, "can this guy get your team down the field on that one drive with everything on the line?"

There it was. 3:35 to play in the game, down 21-18.  A quick 14 yard gainer to Witten down the middle  gave the Cowboys breathing room out to their own 29.  And on 1st and 10 from their own 29, they hurried to the line with shotgun again with 3:06 to go.

The Redskins bring tons of pressure all game and that particular blitz was seen on several occasions.  In fairness to Romo, if he can get the ball over the top of Rob Jackson, the right outside linebacker who starts toward Romo and then peels off to stay with Murray, then Murray will have the ability to run a long, long ways.  The Redskins are defending with recklessness and despite their success, if the Cowboys can break one play on this final drive, they can win the game and the NFC East.

But, because of the pressure, Romo is back-pedaling.  This will not allow him to measure his throw with any amount of precision.  And because he is off balance, his lofted throw is short and Jackson is able to recover and and attack the ball, securing it for the biggest play of his career.

There are a number of problems with this decision from your QB, with the most obvious one being that it is 1st Down.  You cannot likely survive a sack, but this is where you either see Witten open over the blitz or you throw the ball into the sideline.  You cannot make a risky throw on 1st Down with everything on the line.  And you also cannot excuse him because of some Jim Haslett ambush call.  That blitz was as predictable as could be after seeing his calls for 57 minutes already.  Romo just got it wrong at the most inopportune time - possibly of his career.

And this is where the Cowboys' QB is again; In a place where he will unfortunately have to serve as a piñata for the next several months as people who barely watched him will latch on to the easy narrative rather than considering a very strong season running an offense that made him over-come obstacle after obstacle all year long.  He is good enough to carry a team for months at a time, so how come he isn't good enough to perform at an efficient level in this one-game scenario last night against an equally-battered team?

I will continue to say that the Quarterback is not holding this franchise back - not at any level.  But, that doesn't mean that he didn't let them down last night.  In fact, this was a spot where we knew that they needed their best players to be their best players, and as much as I appreciate the challenges he has to deal with, he simply had to do better than he did with his opportunities on this Sunday night.

Let me define that:  Did you know the Cowboys had the ball in Washington territory on 8 of their first 9 possessions last night?

8 times on the Washington end of the field in their first 9 possessions (they only had 11 - the 10th possession was the interception to Jackson and the 11th possession was the garbage time sequence with 1 minute left) only resulted in 3 scores.  3 others ended in punts from plus territory and then, of course, the 2 interceptions that both ended drives early.

And that is the real killer.  The running game was working.  The play calling was balanced.  Honestly, the game-plan was rather sound and the offensive line was playing at a reasonably decent level.  And that is why you sit here today and feel that the Cowboys should have been able to win that game, despite not having any real ability to stop the Redskins rushing attack.

But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year.  With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record.  And in the Romo-era?  Well, the record is now 1-15.  In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.

Some years, the conversation is much wider and more nuanced about what went wrong.  In 2008, the team was just not together when they went to Philadelphia.  They had a divided locker-room and needed to make changes.  In 2011, they ran into a better team in the final game.

But, last night, with Robert Griffin unable to do anything more than limp-jog, a defense that could not get pressure without blitzing, and an offense that hardly completed a pass down the field all night long, I am hard-pressed to say they ran into a better team.

I think that was a winnable game that had a lot of variables fall the Cowboys way with big special teams plays, a missed field goal, and even a timely late game sack (Anthony Spencer again) that gave the Cowboys a chance to over-come everything that went wrong to that point.

They had the ball and were only down 3.  They had all kinds of time and a kicker who certainly seemed able to get you to overtime if you just completed a few more passes.  And that is why I am choosing to make this column about a guy that I have spent a lot of time appreciating over the years.  This one is squarely on Tony Romo for picking a really poor time to make his worst throw of the season at precisely a moment in which he could not make that throw.

That is how his position is judged.  All of the fantasy football numbers do not matter, it seems.  When you melt away the numbers and games that do not stick, most players are remembered for a few plays made at high-leveraged moments when we are all watching.

One of those happened last night for Tony.  And that is why he will continue to be a polarizing topic, just as he has been since 2007 when he went from being an underdog to a national celebrity in a matter of months.

He is a heck of a player and I would wonder what the 2012 Cowboys record would have been with Jon Kitna or Kyle Orton at the helm (5-11?), but the truth is that last night was a game that was there to be won and it ended just like the others - with an apologetic Romo at the podium talking about what went wrong and how this will test his team's resolve as they look to next season.

The Cowboys will likely grant him a massive contract extension this off-season because unlike most of their fans, they do recognize that however unfortunate that moment was last night, you still need to hang on to a really good QB until you have a better idea.  And for every QB you would happily trade Romo for (Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees), there are way more that you would not want to see replace him.

He is what he is.  Which most weeks is quite solid.  And that is why the Cowboys simply must improve their squad to a point where they can win a game in which he doesn't play at his very best.  This year they set records for their inability to run the football and they lined up one of the worst offensive lines in club history.  They also were exposed for not having enough depth or quality on either the offensive or defensive line.

All of that must improve.

And yet, with a defense that in no way resembled the defense that they left training camp with, they were once again playing for a division title with 3 minutes to play in the season.

So, do you fire and trade everyone - including your quarterback?

No.  I am guessing you get to work on building a team that does not have to rely on Romo to get them everywhere they arrive.  Because at this point, we seem to have a pretty good idea that that can only take them so far.  Like most NFL teams, the Cowboys do not have a QB who can drag the rest of the club all the way to the Super Bowl.

Nobody wants to hear that right now.  Romo had the season in his hands last night and he threw it to the other team.

8-8 in 2012 follows 8-8 in 2011.  And .500 football goes all the way back to pretty much the last championship parade in early 1996.

And as the Washington Redskins are celebrating what they believe is the start of a long-term football revival built around a Texas kid under center, the agony of defeat ends another year of Dallas Cowboys football.


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Monday, 17 December 2012

The Morning After: Cowboys 27, Steelers 24 (8-6)

Posted on 07:01 by Unknown

If it makes your stomach turn to know that many Steelers fans infiltrated your stadium for a pivotal game in mid-December that you simply could not afford to lose, it should.  Maybe there will come a time when the Cowboys enjoy such ticket-holder loyalty that those who cannot attend the game make sure their tickets only find other home-team faithful, but clearly that time is not December, 2012.  However, after thousands do storm your castle, your holiday revenge can be best enjoyed by watching them exit your stadium with sad looks on their faces because they just suffered a potentially season-ruining defeat at the hands of your battered band of brothers.

If you cannot keep them from visiting, make their experience end in such an unpleasant way that they might not be as inclined to join you again.  What wasn't accomplished when all of the Bears fans visited in September, was accomplished on Sunday evening.

Happy Holidays, Pittsburgh.

Brandon Carr, who cost $50 million to acquire in the offseason, had a rather quiet start to his Cowboys career, but his 3 interceptions have all come in the 2nd half of the season and have all included returns of 36 yards or more.  But, yesterday, when he stepped in front of a Ben Roethlisberger pass intended for Mike Wallace, he won a game that was vital to the way 2012 is remembered.  If they are to qualify for the post-season, that result was demanded to be put in the win column, and their big off-season purchase did the deed.

It was another game that required late game heroics, and some pass rush moments that make you think the Cowboys defensive front is developing a flare for the dramatic.  It was not easy, nor pretty, but since when has success been so plentiful around here that style points were important?

This is a team in 2012 who has shown its greatest attribute is their battle.  They, honestly, have seemed to make up for some shortcomings by being the team that has brought an amazing amount of intestinal fortitude and drive to these games, and unlike some of their predecessors, have not seemed willing to be the first team to blink.

And that fight can make up for quite a few things on the field - especially when you are a team that has a lot to make up for.  But, will can push skill quite a ways.  And this team continues to demonstrate a fair amount of will.  Even if their own stadium is being over-run by "terrible towels".

Now, let's not get carried away with this discussion.  The facts are that this team went on a run when it started getting better performances from its franchise quarterback.  If we all believe that Tony Romo is a better than average QB in this league (and anyone who doesn't should just stop reading now), then it certainly behooves him to play like it.  And, for reasons that are both clear and unclear, it seems that he has had to hit his stride after some catastrophic experiences early in each of the last 2 seasons.

In 2012, Romo had one of his slowest starts ever.  After the Giants game on October 28, where he had a very forgettable 1st half to both the game and his year, we broke down his season to date:
Romo is +73 (TD/INT) for his career, but a painful -4 for his season.  And his 13 picks are already the 3rd most of his 7-year career.  After always being amongst the league leaders in QB rating with numbers in the mid to high 90s, he finds himself below Jay Cutler and right next to Michael Vick in 2012, with a 78 QB rating (very close to Quincy Carter's 71-type numbers).

What is happening to one of the more efficient QBs of this era? In almost all metrics, since he has come into the league, he is no worst than 5th when it comes to QB rating behind Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning. That is the entire list. Anyone else? And Romo has them on statistical metrics of the individual variety.

It is tough to narrow down specifically what is happening, and honestly, to blame one aspect of the offense is to let others off the hook. But, the following items are true.

* Romo has turned the ball over more than anyone in the sport this year
* Romo has 0 TDs and 5 interceptions on 3rd and 4th downs
* Romo has the 33rd worst QB rating on 3rd Down of 34 qualifying QBs (Skelton, Arz)
A lot has changed since that day.   Including a stretch where the Cowboys have turned a 3-4 record into 8-6, and have won 5 of their last 6 games.  They have certainly not found an offensive line that has made life easy at all, but Romo and the offense has figured out how to exist around their issues and have put up points and production.

In those 7 games, Romo has found 13 Touchdowns without throwing many picks.  3 Interceptions, with 2 of those happening on Thanksgiving against Washington, and a QB rating that is back in those familiar Romo numbers of efficiency with a rating of 101.4 over the stretch which puts his season numbers over 90.  That 90 milestone is of interest because there is one (Romo) and only one Quarterback in the NFL since 2006 who has eclipsed 90 for each and every season.  His 90.2 rating for the season is still the lowest of his career, but the run he has been on since Halloween has put his performance back in the neighborhood of what he has presented the league with his entire career.

And what has that change in performance done?  It has stopped the free flow of giveaways and turnovers.  It has made the Cowboys a tougher team to play against, and after being 2nd (to Kansas City) in giveaways at the halfway point of the season, they have just 6 giveaways in the last 6 games.  That number puts them among the fewest giveaways since Halloween and back in the mix for the playoffs.

This is absolutely not a coincidence.

The Cowboys have many flaws, but when you combine erasing mistakes with a fantastic uptick in 3rd Down efficiency - where no team in the NFL has more 3rd Down conversions in the last 6 weeks than the Cowboys' 41 - and you can see how Dallas has now been in games where the competitive will can make a difference.

And to my eyes, the amount of "will" a team has is always tough to quantify.  But, let's try anyway.  I think that digging down deep and finding a big play is the best way to demonstrate how badly you want to leave with a result.  And late in the game, when everyone is tired and battered, the Dallas Cowboys have become a team that can find the 4th Quarter sack.  Think back to almost any win you would like, and you will almost always see some key moments late in the game that involved the Cowboys pass rush.  And sure enough, that can be proven in that the Cowboys are 2nd in the NFL with 4th Quarter sacks with 16.  And from November on, the Cowboys are #1 in the NFL with 10 4th Quarter sacks.  You can almost name them all, including clutch moments last night as the Steelers were trying to find a winning score.  3 giant 4th Quarter sacks took down Ben Roethlisberger that started with DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer sharing a sack, then Sean Lissemore popped through to get one, and finally, Anthony Spencer who did it again.

Spencer is quite a story, as he has been the definition of "what's wrong with this team" according to many Cowboys' observers over the course of his career, but I have always argued for his value.  But, in 2012, it seems that he doesn't need an advocate any longer.  He trails just JJ Watt and Aldon Smith in 4th Quarter sacks this season with 6, and many of them have been absolutely huge.

Those are just a few players who require recognition, but there are any more.  Dez Bryant has taken a gigantic step forward in the leadership of this team by big moments and a demonstration of toughness and desire that should make any critic quiet.  He has kept playing and figured out how to contribute despite a left hand that looks almost decorative at this juncture.  DeMarcus Ware appears to be playing with one arm, as he wears a huge brace from a hyper-extension felt in Cincinnati.  DeMarco Murray runs with a reckless abandon that shows fresh legs and a refusal to be denied.

The list goes on and on... In this space, we have been quick to point out that this team seems to have an annual swoon in December due to a lack of depth and quality at the bottom of the roster.  I was asked last night if I would concede a change in that quality due to a 3-0 record in December in 2012.  Surely, we must be mindful of sample sizes and not get carried away from just 3 games, but when you consider that Dwayne Harris, Alex Albright, Lissemore, Victor Butler, John Phillips, and James Hanna all played large roles in yesterday's gutty win, you can see that something is being built around here.

They are far from where they need to be, but you can see that the Jason Garrett program is showing signs of life.  His team appears to be adopting those characteristics of teams you admire around football.  A toughness and a level of physicality that make every game a street fight, coupled with a refusal to go quietly in the night.

There was no way after leaving Atlanta at 3-5 that many of us thought this team could make a legitimate run at 10 wins and a division title, but here they are - 2 wins away from the finish line.

In my line of work, after 15 seasons of covering Cowboys football, I am always hesitant to declare anything without reservations, because it seems that the next change in direction of fortunes is just a week away.   But this has been a very interesting season and memorable in that the flaws are so profound and yet the team has not given in to them.

This win against Pittsburgh was just as tenuous in its outcome as many before it, but this team is starting to show us that they may not dominate teams on their schedule, but they seem to be willing to "outlast" some of them over a 3 hour battle.

They have put themselves back into a spot where they have a fighting chance.  And, fighting seems to be what this team does best.

Its been a while since people were saying that about the Cowboys.
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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, FSSW, Morning After | No comments

Monday, 10 December 2012

The Morning After: Cowboys 20, Bengals 19 (7-6)

Posted on 07:08 by Unknown
There are a number of games every season that you will not remember a few months after the game is played.  They are generic, run-of-the-mill games that give you nothing significant to recall and although every game is vital and important, nothing particularly vital or important comes to mind when trying to remember the events of that game or weekend.

The 2012 trip to Cincinnati will not be one of those games that is soon forgotten.

In fact, for reasons that are both profoundly sad and reasons that should make you proud, there is a good chance that the unlikely win against the Bengals that ended in a clutch kick by Dan Bailey is the game from 2012 that you might remember most in a few years.  And, when asked to recall the defining game of the Jason Garrett era, you might also look to this one as the moment that you saw him in crisis, a time where he was forced to pull back the curtain with the public and show us a bit of that "head coach personality" that he normally seems to hide from anyone who is not on the roster.

A few weeks back, after a frustrating win at home against Cleveland, I felt compelled to write about everything that was going wrong with this team, but also to address the one positive that I think had to be pointed out:
Before we get to the countless concerns that this team seems to have right now as they frantically prepare for their next nail-biter in 72 hours time, let's say something extremely complimentary about this crew under Jason Garrett:  This team competes hard.  I am not sure every reader will agree, but having watched many Cowboys teams over the years - some who played as hard as they could and some who looked like they picked their spots - I would like to report that the 2012 version of the Cowboys compete as hard as just about any team.  From a perspective of "want" and "desire" and "effort" and all of those keywords that denote the characteristics of a professional earning his professional-sized paycheck, I think Jason Garrett's teams play their tails off. 
I know that won't make anyone forget legendary Dallas squads that have Lombardi Trophies in their possession, but in the chaos that is modern-day Cowboys football, it would be easy for teams to lose their competitive edge amongst the constant pressure, critique, and distractions of pizza and lingerie promotional events in their own stadium.  Very few teams have "art tours" to navigate around, and the fact that this Cowboys team competes as hard as they possibly can on just about every play of every game is something that I don't think should be completely disregarded.
That opinion obviously was tested this weekend for this organization.  That was written on November 19, 2012, or 19 days before Jerry Brown would lose his life in a single car accident as he was returning home late at night with his roommate, teammate, and good friend Josh Brent behind the wheel.  Brent was said to be under the influence of alcohol as they returned from a party and was jailed on intoxication manslaughter charges after Brown was declared dead after the accident.

Hopefully, very few of us will ever know what it is like to lose someone we love in a drunk-driving accident caused by someone else we love.  And surely, if we ever are in that situation, none of us will ever be asked to compete in a professional football game the very next day with tears streaming down our face in the national anthem as Lawrence Vickers demonstrated yesterday moments before noon.

But, the Cowboys did just that on Sunday.

And maybe, it was that moment of crisis that you would greatly love to have avoided, but in the middle of it, you saw what your team was all about.

Jason Garrett:  It was really, really challenging.  But, somehow, we had to come together, all of us.  11 guys.  Coaches, players, everybody.  We had to come together.  And the bonds we had as teammates had to get stronger.  They were really strong for Jerry Brown.  I think everybody is really, really, really heartbroken.

Clearly, the game played after a life ends seems frivolous in comparison.  Seeing the final post on his Facebook page that referenced that Brown was about 2 months from being a father for the first time can make anyone feel the heart ache.  But, the show must go on.  It always does.  It did last week in Kansas City, and it did yesterday in Cincinnati.

And perhaps we saw again how football is the ultimate game of emotion.  Because, on paper and at times on the field, you could see some significant matchup issues that separated the Bengals from the Cowboys.  This was a road game in which the Cowboys were playing a team that desperately needed a result for their own playoff pursuits.  They would feel no mercy on a Cowboys team if Dallas did not compete at the highest level.

And, halfway through the 3rd Quarter, when the Bengals kicked another field goal to take a 19-10 lead, it was clear their execution was not going to be great but that might not matter against a rather flat Cowboys side.  Dropped passes and a few untimely penalties knocked the Bengals out of promising drives themselves, but luckily, they were playing a team that was not very good and had a major distraction as well.

And then, for reasons that will surely be written in Cowboys lore a number of ways, the team began to take things over in the 4th Quarter.  It started with a key sack by DeMarcus Ware on a 3rd Down, even though it seemed to most observers that Ware was playing with 1 arm yesterday after he appeared to hurt himself earlier in the contest.

Then, the Cowboys' offense finally started exposing the middle of the field on 3 different big plays where Romo found Kevin Ogletree for 23 (on 1st and 20), Miles Austin for 15 (on 3rd and 10), and then Dez Bryant on that dig route for a 27 yard Touchdown.  To suggest Romo was under duress all day would be an understatement, but if anyone is pretty accustomed to running for his life when looking for open receivers, you would certainly think it had to be Romo by now.

The touchdown brought the Cowboys to within a 19-17 margin and there was still 6:35 to go.  By all accounts, this game was supposed to be over and the Bengals were supposed to be one giant step closer to the AFC playoffs with the Steelers looking pathetic at home against San Diego.  But, perhaps the collars were tight, as receivers were dropping passes, defensive backs were dropping interceptions, and they simply looked like the team that was flat.

Or, perhaps they simply assumed the Cowboys would not have a rally inside them, but on the next drive - one that would make or break the game for either team - Anthony Spencer capped off another fantastic effort with an interior pass rush that got to Andy Dalton on 3rd and 4 for one of the more timely sacks of his career.  For a guy who lacks sacks in sheer volume, he does have a knack for getting them with the game on the line, it seems.  He closed the Washington game in 2011, as well as the Carolina game this season, the Philadelphia road game this year, and now this game all with crucial game-winning or game-saving sacks.  That is a very neat trick for the linebacker that it seems Cowboys fans are finally willing to concede is a pretty fine player.

So, that put the ball back into the hands of the offense with 3:44 left.  They would mount a 50 yard drive from their own 28 to the Bengals' 22 yard line without a single play that would net more than 9 yards.  DeMarco Murray ran as hard as he ever has, and while his stat line will not rock the NFL today, those who watched that final drive know that Murray was not going to be denied.  We can only wonder where this team might be if he was present and accounted for all season long.  He makes all of the difference in the world to this offense.

The drive was not easy - it never is - but, despite close calls (including the irony of a dropped interception by Terence Newman) and more bruises (Nate Livings got blasted into next week by Rey Maualuga right before the 2 minute warning), the team completed the drive and put the game onto the foot of Dan Bailey.

And while Bailey's clutch kicking record is not anywhere close to his broader kicking record, he does give you a feeling of confidence in a kicker that Dallas has not had in a while.  As he put it through the uprights, the Cowboys secured a rather unlikely 20-19 win and got their record back over .500 for the first time since 2-1 against Tampa Bay.

Seeing DeMarcus Ware carry Brown's jersey off the field along with embraces, tears, shaking voices, and emotions everywhere, it was clear how this team felt.  To attach a win to a young man's death seems in some ways a hollow media creation and in other ways a meaningful moment that brought a group of men together.  I don't particularly like linking the two events of the weekend, but it seems impossible not to do just that.

Those guys, who already had a reputation for playing hard for their team and each other, rose up late in a game that might have been nearly impossible to play, but also might have been vital to their coach's future.  These are the harsh realities of life in pro sports.  If they finished 6-10, everyone could point to a tragedy derailing an already depleted roster, and that logic would be accepted.

But, they didn't.  They kept fighting.  And on Sunday, they found a victory which very few thought possible (including me).  I didn't see this win coming and I frankly left quite impressed with their guttiest effort of the season happening when they needed it most and when it would have been understandable, if not excusable, not to compete.

It tells me plenty about the Garrett administration and the veterans on this team that are often having their legacies minimized by poor playoff production.  But, if they are building something here that can grow into something better soon under Jason Garrett, the idea that this team competes hard suggests that his first declaration that they "would be tough to play against" can be checked off.

The events of Saturday were horrible and now must be addressed by the team for the foreseeable future.  But, the events of Sunday likely made their fans proud of how they came together in very difficult circumstances and battled hard despite heavy hearts.

It may have been the Garrett-Era's greatest victory.  And that, might be enough to keep the era going after 2012.

Stay tuned.

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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, FSSW, Morning After | No comments

Monday, 3 December 2012

The Morning After: Cowboys 38, Eagles 33 (6-6)

Posted on 08:14 by Unknown
Context is something that is always required to understand what information you are looking at and how much of what seems real can actually be believed.  Context tells us if all of this money that our paycheck contains is actually surplus, or whether it has been earmarked for other purposes already.  Context tells us if losing 5 pounds is either the destination or the start of the journey.

And that is why in this particular win over that particular team, it might require some context to examine what December may have in store for the 2012 Dallas Cowboys.  Yes, it was a season sweep against a hated rival and a 3rd divisional win in 5 games.  But, can we read anything more into it other than the fact that they beat a bad team that cannot wait for things to end in 2012 and a team whose fans now fear wins because it destroys their draft position?  They beat a team who knows it is about to be burned to the ground and its remnants will be scattered.  Can that truly tell us anything?

Yes, it was an offensive performance that exceeded the 400 yard barrier that used to be a guarantee of winning for the Cowboys under Tony Romo.  Did you know that of the first 21 times that the Cowboys gained 400 yards of offense under Romo, the team was 20-1?  It is because they were a team that struck fear in the hearts of their opponents from 2006-2009.  A team that was versatile and dangerous in the way it attacked you.  An offense that created the classic conflicts in the defense where whatever they choose to key on will be the wrong answer.  An most importantly, they were an offense that carried the tempo of the game to you from the opening kickoff on.  They decided the pace and dictated the style, rather than a team that presently has the game dictated to them.

Since those first 21 times the Cowboys have hit 400 yards in the Romo era, they have accomplished the feat 18 more times (including last night).  These 18 games, from 2010-2012, have been decidedly different in their creation.  With the win, they are now 8-10 when they get to 400 yards of offense in the last 3 seasons, and the reason is that yards are not always yards.  Context comes in here and slaps us in our face because sometimes yards are gained during furious rallies that are accumulated against prevent defenses.

To look a little closer at those 18 games in the last 3 seasons, we find 4 of them were on the road.  They were 3-1 in those games with wins at New York in 2010, at San Francisco in 2011, Opening Night this season back at New York, and then the lone loss was at Baltimore this year in a game they certainly could have won.

And that leaves 14 home games since 2010, where the offense racked up tons of yards and last night moved their record to 5-9 in those games.  Because usually, they were putting up yards in big comeback attempts - down big to Tennessee, Jacksonville, and New Orleans in 2010, or to the Bears, Giants, and Redskins this year.  Yards are not always a product of good football.  Sometimes, they are a product of elongated garbage time and throwing against prevents.  All that glitters is not gold.

And that is why we wonder if last night was something that should give the Cowboys hope or whether it was the simple oasis that is playing a team that is self-destructing on its own sideline.  The Eagles are a dysfunctional group that has fired yet another coach this morning after more discord boiled over and Jim Washburn is now surely a happy man to not have to deal with the chaos any longer.  What a disgrace they are right now, after being held up as a model franchise just a few short years ago for being able to build a sustainable roster that won division titles with great routine, despite falling short of the Super Bowl trophy.

One one hand, we see the offense looking dynamic as Tony Romo shreds the Eagles on play action opportunities because the Eagles safeties and linebackers are dead set on making sure DeMarco Murray doesn't beat them with another run.  And on the other hand, we notice on the same play that there are clearly defensive backs who don't seem to interested in attempting a tackle that may cause pain.

We want to think that the mere presence of Murray has solved many of their problems, but to do that, we would have to forget the issues that we saw against Seattle and Chicago when Murray was present and accounted for.

The offense looked very good in the 2nd half, after every drive in the 1st half contained either a sack, a penalty, or both.  The offensive line continues to look very shaky, and now the focus of the frustration is squarely on the shoulders of Doug Free.  Free was a player who looked like one of the building blocks of the offense after his first season as a starter in 2010, but now looks like a guy who is a candidate for a benching in the short term and/or a releasing when the offseason arrives.  There is no way you can pay him top dollar when he is causing so many issues with his inability to anchor against a bull rush nor move his feet well on an outside move.  Free is supposed to be a pillar and instead, Romo is just celebrating that Free is no longer on his blindside.  At least he can now see the danger that is headed his way with Free at right tackle.  He has regressed to a point where keeping him around to see years 3 and 4 of his 4-year contract signed last July seems to be a bit of a stretch - although the cap hit to releasing him this spring would be nearly $13m in dead money, making that a bit of a hard pill to swallow, too.

Meanwhile, the defense has the look of a unit that has finally reached its breaking point with injuries.  No Sean Lee, no Bruce Carter, no Jay Ratliff, no Kenyon Coleman and others who are hurting have the Cowboys defense now in full regression.  After 10 weeks of hanging tough, this is the 2nd consecutive week where they were unable to do much to stop the opponent on the ground.  Alfred Morris gashed the Cowboys for almost 5 yards a carry on 24 runs for 113 last week and the equally anonymous Bryce Brown decided to one-up him with 7 yards a carry on 24 runs for 169 this week.  Thankfully, his ball protection skills need some work and his fumble effectively ended the Eagles chance at the upset, but there was plenty of open field which made getting off the field difficult.

And to comprehend how amazing that Brown performance was, one simply has to look at the Eagles offensive situation where there is nobody still healthy and remaining from the offense that they started the season with.  They are legitimately working with what could be described as their junior varsity on offense and still put the Cowboys in a spot where they were sweating until Jason Witten secured the final onside kick attempt in the final minute.

So, before we get carried away with spending on all morning on playoff scenarios and December ideas, let's remember that the Cowboys just got done playing 3 teams at home that are going nowhere in 2012.  In those 3 games, the Cowboys enjoyed a total of about 6 minutes of time of possession with the lead.  They did show signs of being a competent offense again and the arrival of Dez Bryant as a beast appears to be well underway, but let's not get too excited.

This is where context is required.  This is where we must realize that the final 4 games include 2 AFC teams fighting for the final wildcard spot (with each-other) and are a combined 5-0 this season against the NFC East and both play a physical style that will attempt to batter and bruise Romo and plug up any openings that Murray may be seeking.

The final 2 games, assuming the Cowboys are still somewhere in the mix after the Bengals and Steelers back-to-back, will be against a Saints team in the home finale who seem to have a decent track record in Dallas recently and they will finish the season in Washington against their new nemesis, Mr Griffin.

Winning 3 of the 4 will be required to even be in the conversation, but even that is likely not enough given Seattle's big win in Chicago yesterday, their head to head destruction of the Cowboys in Week 2, and their gift win from the replacement refs in the "fail Mary" game.  Also, the Bears hold a head to head advantage with the Cowboys, too, which might come back to haunt.

Context tells us that despite wins in the last month over the Eagles, Browns, and Eagles (combined record 10-26), we should understand that this team is still a battered mess with plenty of issues to address before they will cause a ripple of concern across the NFL.

They welcome DeMarco Murray back with open arms and I recalled that day in August when I wrote about the Cowboys training camp theme of their two best players being Murray and Bryant.  That dream of what might happen to this offense if Jason Witten and Miles Austin were merely complimentary pieces that happily conceded touches to the young and strong bucks who are willing and able to make their name by demonstrating their elite potential on a weekly basis.

Bryant looks closer than ever as he is now routinely dominating plays and winning on routes.  He still makes you wonder if he will be on the same page as Romo when those key moments present themselves, but when there is a ball in the vicinity, it is now routine to see Bryant pull off another circus catch.  He is as fantastic as he has ever been in Dallas, and now appears to be a bright spot as a game breaker moving forward.

As for Murray, we wonder if we will ever see the great runs on an extended basis.  He is clearly a man who possesses elite upside, but will that always come with a fragility that is one hit away?  His great runs last night mixed in with his limps back to the huddle properly sum up his status right now as the Cowboys hope.  He can make everything better.  The offensive line has a chance.  So does the passing game.  So does the pass protection.  Play action actually has teeth.

But, the second he leaves the field, all the problems come rushing back.

This is a painfully flawed team in another painfully flawed season.  They are good enough to tease you and bad enough to frustrate you.  They are still alive, but barely.  And you wonder if they will ever get all of the pieces in place.

And maybe, all of those "what ifs" are what make Jerry Jones the risk taker that he is.

He sits up there, squints, and thinks he can see a time when everything happens simultaneously.  The defense is stout, the offense is dynamic, and all of his players who are prone to injury are suddenly healthy at the same time for an extended period.

And maybe, in this dream scenario, they could play a gang of quitters like the Eagles every week.

Then, the far-fetched dream of the playoffs in 2012 might not be so far-fetched.

Health, context, and squinting.  When all else fails, that is what we are built upon right now.

On to Cincinnati, we go.

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Posted in 2012 Cowboys, FSSW, Morning After | No comments
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