Growing Your Own NFL Teams

When we roll out statistics these days, the bottom line question will always be: "What does it mean when it comes to winning games?"

As it should be.

Any way we measure a team should always be put to the test of who is winning games and how they are winning them and whether or not this particular statistic has anything to do with that end goal.

Well, in the National Football League, I believe there is a tried and true principle that is only becoming more important as we go that is claimed to be closely tied to winning.  And I wanted to see if it was true, because while I believe in it deeply, what shows up in the standings is the truth.

That truth is being a homegrown franchise is the best way to build a consistent winner.  In other words, those teams that build their roster primarily from their own draft picks and own college free agents will always win more games over the long haul.  The reason and logic being that you do not participate in the poor investment of free agency which throws off your structure and brings in players who do not have equity in the organization.  It can also mean that football players are of most use at the least cost to their franchise in the 4 years immediately after leaving college.  Either way, if you grow your own, you are a franchise that is "always in the mix".  If you don't, you likely are not - using other team's castoffs and trying to patch-work a team of vagabonds.  It is very difficult to build a mansion with your neighbor's garbage.

Now, in the field of arguing, sample sizes are thrown together to prove and disprove things, and many have said that you can get statistics to say anything.  Maybe, but we want to be a bit more discriminating and use broader samples to make sure that we see the bigger picture.  Therefore, let's use 5-year results.

On the other hand, we also must understand that players have ages and their ages cause their effectiveness to fluctuate and therefore what is true today may not be true in a few years.  Whether this particular measurement is a predictor is anyone's guess.

I broke down all 32 rosters to see how many of the players were in fact, homegrown.  How many were the team's own picks, how many were college free agents, and how many were brought in from afar.

We found that the average NFL team's final 53-man roster contained 33 home grown players or 62% of the roster.  The very high end - Green Bay and Atlanta each had 43 players make their final 53 who were their own players from college - was 81% and the very low end was the Indianapolis Colts who have put just 25 players on their 53-man roster for 47%.

Of course, you might say that the Colts have done plenty of winning in the last 5 years (49 wins) and this is not helping your correlation theory, much.

True.  So let's list the top 5 and bottom 5 and see what turns up.

TOP 5 HOMEGROWN (Wins Are Regular Season Only)

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Atlanta	43	56
Green Bay	43	53
Pittsburgh	40	53
Baltimore	39	54
Houston	39	45
Top 5	40.8	52.2

BOTTOM 5 HOMEGROWN

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Indianapolis	25	49
Washington	26	33
Detroit	27	22
Tampa Bay	28	33
NY Jets	29	43
Bottom 5	27	36

So, the Top 5 teams in the NFL for having their own talent win 52.2 games on average for the last 5 years and the Bottom 5 win 36 games.  That is a 10 win season and a 7 win season for 5 years straight to get to those numbers.  

In today's NFL, that is rather significant, don't you think?

So, where does that leave the Dallas Cowboys?  Actually, with 36 players on their roster who are life-long Dallas Cowboys players on their 53, they aren't in bad shape.  That ranks them in a group at about 10th best in the NFL and in very strong shape with teams that are also in the playoff mix generally, Minnesota, Cincinnati, New England, the NY Giants, and maybe a team that is on the rise in the St Louis Rams.

The Cowboys have 23 of their own picks on their roster.  That is below the NFL average of 26.2, but where they really clean up is that they rank 2nd in the NFL behind St Louis in their own college free agents on the roster.  They have 13 of them and the NFL average is 7.  

People often ask me if the Cowboys get enough credit for finding college free agents and it is a good question.  How many can say they found their franchise QB as a college free agent?  But, when you get to 13, you do have to counter with asking how they have that many spaces available?  If you only have 53 spots, it would seem that you would need to miss on a lot of actual draft picks to have vacancies to accommodate that many undrafted players.  So, yes, they have more undrafted players, but you could argue it is much easier to make Dallas' roster than a team that is hitting on its picks more often.  

In fact, only New Orleans has more college free agents (from any originating franchise) on their 2013 53-man squad with 23.  Dallas has 19 - tied with Seattle.  The NFL Average for undrafted players on a roster is 14, and the low is the NY Giants with just 9 players who did not get selected by anyone in their draft.

Back to our study, when we look at the worst at homegrown talent, the bottom 10 is completed with Oakland, Denver, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Chicago. Those 10 teams are all franchises that currently have 30 or fewer players on their roster who are homegrown.

There are obviously wildcards in this mix.  But, tell me, which of the following 2 groups do you associate with generally winning 10 games and which is generally losing 10 games?

Top 10 in Homegrown Talent: Falcons, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Patriots, Giants, Bengals, Vikings, and Cowboys

These teams have 489 wins in the last 5 years - 9.8 wins per year, per team.

Bottom 10 in Homegrown Talent: Colts, Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Jets, Bears, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Raiders

These teams have 358 wins in the last 5 years - 7.1 wins per year, per team.

There is much more to this study, and much more to winning (Peyton Manning seems to help), but when you wonder what the teams that win consistently have in common, look here.  Depth is what covers teams.  Depth is due to solid drafting and cheap players filling out the back half of your roster, but not just cheap - Quality and cheap.  

You win by securing players early and then letting them grow for you.  Pulling through your competition's trash can yield results on occasion, but generally not enough over the long haul.  The Cowboys are starting to figure this out.  Let's see if they can stay on course.

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Your 2013 Dallas Cowboys!

After giving the personnel department a few days to figure everything out, the Cowboys have finally settled on their week 1 roster.  For historical purposes, we will actually have to stick with the 53 men who the Cowboys turned into the league on Saturday at the 5 pm deadline, but as we said last week, a proper NFL roster is in the constant state of development and is never fully set.

In fact, once we get through the week 1 games, then a number of business thresholds are met.  For the vested veteran - a player with 4+ years of service time, his salary becomes guaranteed if he is on the 53 for Week 1.  This causes teams to have their eyes on a veteran but to not actually he bring him to town until September 9th, the day after their 1st game.  Players signed in that scenario may be signed under an arrangement where they make their salary only in weeks where they are on the roster.  That may not seem like an issue that is a big deal to many of us and worth the trouble, but to a team that is up against the cap (or has an in-season extension in mind for one of its pending free agents), it can free up quite a bit of needed 2013 dollars.

And, of course, once foot meets leather on Sunday Night, injuries start to happen that will continue to keep the personnel department busy and that roster in a constant state of flux.  It is the way the sport works.

But, now let's lock in that original 53 and the subsequent moves already made to look at how this thing shapes up here in 2013:

Final 53:


Quarterbacks (2):  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar

Tight Ends (5):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, Andre Smith, Dante Rosario

Wide Receivers (5): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley

Offensive Line (10)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, David Arkin, Darion Weems.

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen

Linebackers (5): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman

Cornerbacks (4): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb

Safety (6) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton, Jeff Heath

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur


From there, the following transactions have happened:

- Cowboys Place Nate Livings on Injured Reserve (roster to 52)
- Cowboys trade 6th in 2014 to KC for Edgar Jones, LB and 7th in 2014 (53)
- Cowboys trade Sean Lissemore to SD for 7th in 2014 (52)
- Cowboys claim Kyle Bosworth, LB from Giants (53)
- Cowboys trade Dante Rosario to Chicago for 7th in 2014 (roster sits at 52)

Also, they named their practice squad to open 2013:

- Alex Tanney, QB
- Jakar Hamilton, S
- Tim Benford, WR
- Danny Coale, WR
- Jason Vega, DE
- Micah Pellerin, S
- Cameron Lawrence, LB
- Ray Dominguez, G

They have room to add another body still - something likely to happen today - along the offensive or defensive lines.  But, we should give credit to the Cowboys for flipping bodies for picks.  In this cynical climate we live in regarding the Cowboys, we should never thumb our noses at acquiring picks.  They always have a chance to find something nice or to be used as future ammunition to move up in the draft for the right reasons.

As we break this thing down, I will draw your attention to a fun little info-graphic that the Cowboys website has made itself.  As we all know, 9 out of 10 astronauts endorse info-graphics as the learning tool of the future.

I think the moves over the weekend confirm some real issues with special teams that are being addressed.  Expect Bosworth and Jones to both step right in as special teams contributors and be on all kick and punt teams as early as Sunday Night.  Rosario was being kept for that it seems, but once they were offered something of substance by the Bears (and oddly, Joe DeCamilis' special teams), the Cowboys cashed in.

Quick thoughts on where the 53 sits - there are still major questions about how the offensive line will perform or even line up on Sunday.  It seems Ron Leary is ready to roll (or very close) and therefore, we might have Free returning to tackle, but it is tough to say.

However, the issues on this team remain up front.  If ever there was a feeling that they are one more injury away from disaster, I think you could use that with their Ratliff situation on the defensive line.  They have found some reasonable replacement ideas, but the quality is dropping quickly and any more bodies lost could cause the dam to break.  I was hoping one of their claims would be at defensive tackle, but they passed on Marvin Austin (waived by Giants) which tells us he must still not be healthy enough for Dallas to take a run at him.

Today is the player's off day as the coaches finally put the finishing touches on their game-plan.  Tomorrow, they welcome in the 53 (52) man roster and get to work with their first normal work-week of 2013.  They open with a divisional opponent that has beaten them 4 out of 4 trips to Arlington when the NY Giants come calling again.

There is no tip-toeing into this year.  The schedule advises the Cowboys to grab September - easily their easiest month in terms of first glance schedule evaluation - and build a strong record early for the first time in a while.

Since moving to the new Cowboys Stadium, they have started their seasons by allowing the rabbits to run away and hide:

2009: 2-2
2010: 1-3
2011: 2-2
2012: 2-2

If you follow the NFC East, you know that the Giants always seem to start 6-2 or so, so building a nice deficit is a habit that needs to be overcome.  And playing the Giants at home, at Kansas City, the Rams at home, and at the Chargers says that 3-1 in September should be reasonable plan.

And now, we get ready for the start.  Just 5 more days.

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Roster to 53 - Final Version

Every year I try this on the morning after the final preseason game.  It is my best attempt at locking down the Cowboys final 53-man roster.  We must be clear, here.  This is not my pick for the 53, but rather my attempt to figure out who they select as their 53.  There is a distinction that would affect a few players who I would not put on this team, but they disagree - and obviously, their opinion matters quite a bit more than mine.

Keep in mind, this requires an impossible task - crawling inside the head of the decision makers at Valley Ranch.  It also requires us to understand the cap rules that may serve as a tie-breaker as it pertains to such things as full salary eligibility if you are on the roster in Week 1, practice squad eligibility, and veteran minimums.  On top of all of that is the looming idea that there is significant dead money that could actually make the cap situation worse if they were to cut someone like Nate Livings (his number would grow from $2.4m to around $4.5 if you cut him).

Then, you need to detach your evaluations and consider how the Cowboys see a guy.  Which guy might be claimed if we cut him versus which guy might be able to slide through to our practice squad?  Which guy needs more developmental time because he can't help us now, but we don't want to throw him back in the ocean and let someone else catch him.

There are plenty of questions for every team, and our job gets tougher because we have to figure out what exactly Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones are thinking during this process, too.  That requires a skill that we may not possess.

Anyway, all of these projections should be discussed with 2 major things in mind.  1) I don't think this is difficult enough.  What that means is when you cut from 90 to 75 and then to 53, you hope that sooner or later you arrive at the conclusion that you have "too many NFL caliber players" and you can't keep them all.  You then wrestle at your final cuts, knowing that someone is going to snap up your leavings.  Unfortunately, because of a number of circumstances that have put the Cowboys in a dangerously shallow part of the depth pool, cutting to 53 is not hard.  It is also one that doesn't seem to risk too many of your cast-offs going to other teams as a gem that was not properly identified.

And that leads us to 2) this 53 man that they get to on Saturday will not be the 53 man on Wednesday when they all start the practice week for the Giants.  Because of the shallow depth and because of the needs on this team and the ease of the cuts, I fully expect the Cowboys to be looking carefully at several potential upgrades on their roster.  Offensive and defensive lines, in particular, with linebacker and safety also candidates for fresh bodies over the weekend via the waiver wire.  Some teams won't be shopping much.  I expect Dallas to be pretty active in making sure they are fortified, knowing that another team's 55th best player may be better than your 52nd best player.  You must fix that as soon as possible.

Now, using the chart that we printed for you on Wednesday, let's go through the positions and build this 53:

Quarterbacks (2): This is pretty straight-forward.  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton make the team.  I would like to see if Alex Tanney can be my practice squad QB, but I cannot carry 3 QBs at this point.  I do want to make the point, though, that he does seem to possess some interesting skills that are worth working with if you can get him to the PS.

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle were all automatics.  I think Lance Dunbar makes my team as well as a weapon that needs to be used quite a bit for his elusiveness. I am pretty sure I will need special teams out of everyone, but Murray.  But, I do like this group and will keep all 4.

Tight Ends (4):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, and Dante Rosario.  I was wrestling with Andre Smith against Rosario, but the special teams coach Rich Bissacia has a relationship of familiarity with Rosario and vouches for him on teams.  That is vital, because usually, 7-year vets don't play special teams as hard as 2-year vets.  Rosario looks to be on all those special teams and can catch the ball a bit, so he makes the team out of camp.

Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, and Anthony Armstrong all make it.  I am not crazy about Beasley taking a roster spot if I don't want to do much with him, so his ability to be active each week is certainly not a given.  But, the Cowboys do like him and he does show something when they call his number.  I just wish he could return like Harris and you could combine the two players.  Armstrong is another special teams only guy, and so you can see here how the Cowboys could get by with 5.

Offensive Line (9)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, and Darion Weems.  As you likely know, I am not crazy about this group at all.  I think that they have to get to a point where they have reserves who are potential starters someday, and right now, they have no backups who are really pushing to ever be starters.  Costa and David Arkin are/were fringe roster guys and this is why the waiver wire might allow me to finally cut ties with one of them.  Weems has limited quality, but if Free is now a guard, then you need a 3rd tackle, but you can finally move on from Arkin.  Also, because of Livings' contract, he gets a spot but can't likely help you for a while.  Basically, you have a mess here that might be slightly better or slightly worse on the mess from 2012 and the mess from 2011.

So that is 25 for the offense.

Now, the defense:

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen are my group.  I think inside, they can actually build a pretty salty rotation here when Ratliff comes back to give them anything.  I really have hopes for Bass, and Cohen is the type of guy you should try on run downs to eat that 1-technique double team.  Where this team gets edge pressure is a little iffy, but maybe Selvie and Wilbur can be ok as reserves for now.

Linebackers (6): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman, Brandon McGee, I guess.  There are literally no NFL linebackers in camp after the starters and Holloman.  Sims has had a tough go and should be on the fence, but since backup linebackers are your special teams guys, I think I need to keep McGee or Thaddeus Gibson (purely for special teams, because he is pretty much a defensive end) until the Waiver Wire yield.  This is really, really thin.  I don't mind McGee, but if they keep him, it is purely until the wire gives them something and put him on the practice squad.

Cornerbacks (5): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb, Sterling Moore makes up the best group on the team, potentially.  Can't imagine having a better group of 5 in a Dallas secondary.  Webb and Moore are both NFL players and cover you well in case of injury.

Safety (5) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton might be 1 too many. I keep McCray and Frampton for special teams help, but I might have to choose between the two and McCray does have a rather large number for just special teams at his level of play.  I don't feel good about this position right now at all, but Church and Wilcox might be ok there in a bit.  For now, Allen knows the defense and will stopgap until Wilcox can figure this out.

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur - pretty simple, there.  A very good kicker, a solid punter, and a very good deep snapper.

There is my 53.

As you can see, not on the squad are David Arkin, Matt Johnson, Danny Coale, and Caleb McSurdy.  Perhaps cutting a 4th from 2011, and a 4th, 5th, an 7th from 2012 will change your perception of those drafts a bit, but this is about getting your best team for today - not trying to make people feel better about past drafts.  All are practice squad eligible, but they just haven't done anything to move the needle to verify the faith that was put in them on draft day to this point and they have all had multiple camps now.

Don't forget, I think this 53 is only good for a day, so don't celebrate too hard.  Then, on Sunday and Monday, I expect the Cowboys to keep sorting this roster - especially at LB, and OL/DL.

Last year, the Cowboys had a half-dozen disagreements with me, so let's see if I am any closer this year.

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Wednesday Quick Hits - Building That Roster

Here are a few related items that we must all fit on to a Wednesday or we won't get to everything this week.

#1 - Getting Down to 53

On Tuesday, the Cowboys made some procedural moves to help get down to 75 after these initial cuts:

WR Jared Green WR Eric Rodgers WR Anthony Amos QB Nick Stephens P Brett Maher OG Dennis Godfrey LB Deon Lacey TE Colin Cochart CB Brandon Underwood

Then, Tyrone Crawford and Ryan Cook went to the IR and the final move - one that we all saw coming but hoped against was Jay Ratliff being pushed to the PUP list, taking him out for 6 weeks.

Before we cover the Ratliff issue, here is something we do every August - it is cataloguing the final cut-downs of the Cowboys' roster for the last 6 seasons.  This should be useful because it does show us what the guys in this particular personnel war-room believe about building a roster.

Now, of course, we must factor in the scheme change and how moving from the 3-4 to the 4-3 will clearly and obviously reduce your need for linebackers and increase your need for defensive linemen.  So the number will still be likely 14, but now instead of 8 linebackers, they will need 6.  And we expect instead of 6-7 defensive linemen, they will keep 8 - and possibly 9 if the concern about Ratliff makes them hoard backups that might have to start.

Below is the list:

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
QB	2	2	3	3	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4	3
WR	6	5	5	5	5	6
OL	10	11	10	10	10	9
DL	6	6	6	7	7	7
LB	7	8	9	9	7	8
DB	11	11	9	9	9	10
ST	3	3	4	3	4	3
Total	53	53	53	53	53	53

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
2012: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.

Now you can grab the latest 75 man roster found here at the Cowboys website and begin your own chop down, being mindful of position groupings.

We will do the same after Thursday Night's game on the blog here for Friday.

It is time.

#2 - Ratliff and the Defensive Line

One of the issues with the partnership of Jerry and Stephen Jones is that they repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  It usually involves a veteran player with a healthy dose of optimism about how "things will work out."  Those who dig deep into his mind speculate that this can all be traced back to Jerry's days wildcatting, but I won't bore you with that rerun.

What this boils down to is that the Cowboys were switching schemes on their defensive line (Will Need More DL), while losing one of your promising young DL players to jail (Will Need More DL), and another of your key players - Ratliff - only played 6 games in 2012 and looks like he may not be in perfect health in 2013 (Will Need More DL).

And yet, despite knowing all of this, they told the media that they were fine back on draft weekend:

“We feel like defensive line is a position of strength for us,” Jones responded when asked about Floyd. “In our system, we would probably put a premium on a quick-twitch potential three-technique. We [graded] him as not that, but that he certainly may be capable of getting there. That’s a case where are switch from a 3-4, he was obviously a nose tackle that had a lot of promise there at nose tackle. He’s an outstanding football player. … Again, I think you got to put our decision-making with a real focus on doing something with the interior of our offensive line.”

Now, nobody would argue that the Offensive Line might have been in an a worse overall position.  In fact, I believe I made that exact point a number of times.  But, that doesn't mean that you take one center and call it a draft on both lines of scrimmage.  Having said this a dozen times for what seems like 5 years in a row, I know it must be a broken record by now, but why they had the advantageous position of 4 picks in the Top 80 and after taking Travis Frederick decided to go TE, WR, Safety is a very sore topic for me.

They knew that Josh Brent was gone.  They knew that Jay Ratliff has not played at an elite level since 2009.  They knew that they were asking a lot of Jason Hatcher to replicate Warren Sapp or John Randle in this scheme and that says nothing about asking Anthony Spencer to be a defensive end.   And yet, when it was time to find a defensive lineman in the draft or free agency, they waltzed right by like they were totally set.

I know, I know.  They have lots of other needs that also needed to be addressed.  I would never argue that point.

But on May 6 we talked about all of the realities - even before they lost Tyrone Crawford:

Is it as big a mess as the offensive line was?  Not really, unless you are concerned with what is around the next corner.  The offensive line is present tense, but the defensive line is more of a future tense issue.  However, what has killed the Cowboys?  Lack of depth to deal with an injury.  And if Ratliff pulls up lame in training camp, what is the plan?  Full-time Lissemore at the 1-tech?  It looks like it would have to be.

I have no issue with trading back to get 2 starters for pick #18 because actually that makes sound common sense.  The issue is then spending your top 3 picks and really your entire draft without doing anything to help this group at all.  I find that flirting with disaster and don't forget what we talked about last fall after the Offensive Line situation reared its head against Cleveland again:

It isn't coaching.  It isn't effort. 

It is, however, another indictment on the continuing failures of this current front office.  I am sure when the 2012 season ends, like the secondary last spring, we will hear how fixing the offensive line in 2013 is the top priority.  And they will use many of their resources to attempt to do just that.  But, why it takes years for them to see things that are obvious to those watching their games remains a mystery. 

Then, if it is fixed, the shell game of personnel fixes will move to another department of the squad that will be overdue for renovations, too.  These are the effects of too many mistakes over the years in the personnel department.  The holes out-number the plugs, and before long, you have issues that cannot be addressed because you are out of picks and cap space.

Once you leave the port each August for another season at sea, you cannot replenish your supplies until the season voyage is over.  Meanwhile, in the middle of it, you are stuck with whatever you took with you.  From week to week, as people complain about the coaching and the players, those who remain on the voyage do the best with what they have.  But, clearly, what they have is not good enough, and no amount of effort is going to fix the issues for the long-term.

In 2013, they will leave port with a defensive line that might work but the best case/worst case scenarios are wildly problematic if there is one false step this year.

So, who replaces Jay Ratliff?  Would you believe Nick Hayden?  Hayden is one of the cool stories of camp and a guy who when I was watching him play in July seemed like a candidate to really fight for one of those final spots.  That is all you can expect of a guy who is 27 years old and has kicked around a few organizations before finding his way here, right?.  He played 33 snaps of NFL football in 2011, which is 33 more than his 0 in 2012 when he was healthy after an ankle sprain and his phone never rang after training camp.

But now, after one predictable situation with Jay Ratliff is finally revealed, the Cowboys are seemingly planning on him lining up against the Giants in Week 1 to unveil the all new Monte Kiffin defense.

Nick Hayden and George Selvie are both solid finds in the scrap heap of vagabonds.  Selvie is 26 and this will be his 4th chance to catch on and appears to have promise.   And maybe I am too gun-shy about using retread defenders after last season where they are looking on couches to fill out Rob Ryan's lineup in November and find Brady Poppinga and Charlie Peprah.  Sometimes, these reclamation projects work, but when you have a chance to fix this with typical moves to fill holes (you know, the draft!) the Cowboys are telling us everything is fine.  Now, with 11 days to go, Selvie, Hayden, and undrafted 2nd year pro Ben Bass are all going to need to play rather substantial roles it would appear.

They are also going to hope that Anthony Spencer is ready with no camp, Sean Lissemore is ready with very little camp, and Jason Hatcher heals.

Optimism never works in the NFL.  But, it appears to be a key strategy again for the Jones war-room.

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Morning After: Preseason - Cowboys 24, Bengals 18

If you can read anything from the preseason (and we all know it is dangerous to think you can), then you attempt to carefully read the one time in the exhibition season where both teams admit they are running out the starters for an elongated amount of time.  And when that "dress rehearsal" week is against a team that has been in the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 and is attempting to accomplish plenty as well, then you like to see the results go your way.

And on Saturday, against the Cincinnati Bengals side that is a strong candidate to represent the AFC again in the postseason, the Cowboys held up pretty well all night, and clearly got the better of the battle of the 1's as Tony Romo and his crew produced and went to halftime with a 14-7 lead.  The #1 offense hit its stride in the 2nd Quarter and while it certainly is not without negatives, they looked very strong as Dez Bryant dominated the Bengals secondary with the ease that confirms the prediction of the entire offseason that has projected Bryant to have his way with just about anyone who dares to line up across from him.

Bryant, entering his 4th season as a pro, has looked the part since about October of 2012 as the unstoppable force that Jerry Jones thought was going to be worth the trouble when he went out of his way to secure him in the 2010 draft.  Amidst the nonsense and warning signs of headaches that waited ahead, was a player that looked to have as much talent as anyone.  However, those stories are everywhere in professional sports.  The rarity is to see someone become what optimistic projections hope for.  But here is Bryant, almost without warning, becoming a top player in all of the NFL and showing signs that if things go right, he can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

His physical handling of another 1st Round pick, Dre Kirkpatrick on Saturday Night demonstrated another chapter in that developing story.

And that story, puts the Cowboys offensive strategy in an interesting spot.  One in which the mantle of "go-to" guy for Tony Romo will not be Jason Witten anymore.  Witten will certainly catch his share and work near the chains over and over again with his sit-downs in the zones, but the offense should be designed with the idea that nobody will be able to handle Bryant 1-on-1.  If they try, they should be punished, and if they roll coverage over to assist (which will be the norm), then Witten, Miles Austin, and whoever the 4th receiver will be - a 3rd WR or a 2nd TE - will all have advantageous coverage opportunities.

This continues the discussion about personnel groupings and what we have seen in the first month of camp and preseason as it pertains to the initiative from draft day to utilize multiple tight ends as the base offense.  First, I would like to point out that the training camp media talk has nothing to do with the actual play-calling on the 16 Sundays that matter in the fall.  Just because beat writers work "12 personnel is the Cowboys offense" in their stories doesn't mean it is true and it doesn't mean that many of those same writers have any idea what that means.

How much does an offense utilize its base grouping?  If "12" is the base grouping, should we expect it 30% of the time or 80% of the time?  Does anyone know?

Well, here is what we know from what we wrote on the topic back in June.

 It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011. 

In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play? 

The Cowboys have not run an offense that has had a "base" personnel group since Troy Aikman ran the huddle.  There was a time, when the Cowboys were winning Super Bowls, that they had 2 basic personnel groups - "21" was the base, and then on 3rd Downs, they might roll out "11".  But, the idea was that the team was so good and frankly the game had not evolved too much with specialization, that the team may not substitute from Emmitt Smith, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novacek, Michael Irvin, and Alvin Harper the entire drive.

But, with Garrett, aside from the 2-minute drill, there are times where he will go an entire game without running the same personnel grouping for 2 plays in a row.  Seriously.  I have seen it a number of times.

So, let's get back to the question at hand:  Have the Cowboys demonstrated any proficiency in "12" in the preseason to make us believe that they are really going down this road as its default offense.  And the more important topic, which is never covered in the media it seems, is whether the Cowboys have made enough progress to actually try to run the traditional, balanced offense that Jason Garrett has said he desires - you know, the one that Norv Turner ran back in the glory days (where Aikman was never in shotgun, the pass set up an easy run, and the run set up an easy pass).  Can they run an offense from "under center"?  Because, if they are in shotgun, most defenses will not alter their personnel or strategy too much from "11" to "12".

Let's remember:  the whole point of changing personnel is to put the defense in a bind.  If you don't make them rethink their strategy, then anything you do is simply spinning your wheels.  But, if you take Terrence Williams off and replace him with Gavin Escobar, you would like to think there is no defender in the league that can cover both well.  If he is quick enough to stick with Williams, then he is not strong enough to handle Escobar (or tall enough) and the other way around should also be true.  However, the real beauty of "12" personnel is making the defense understand that depending on how they defend, the offense will change their plays at the line to capitalize on your shortfall.

And this bind is only properly hit if you can run your offense from under-center.  Under center is where the linebackers and safeties must respect your running game (if you have one) and move up.  This creates more space in the secondary and makes a QB's job easy.  This is why play-action passing is such a vital part of NFL offenses.  But, your Dallas Cowboys ranked 32nd in the NFL (dead last) in their use of play-action passing in 2012.  Why?  Because play-action doesn't work if the running game is non-threatening.  The linebackers snicker and drop into the passing lanes because they know they won't be needed to stop a run - the defensive line has it all by themselves.

So, let's bring this all together.  Is Gavin Escobar proving he was worth all of the trouble?  Not yet.  We have yet to see him put on a show downfield that makes this all click into place.  If he had, we may not ask ourselves tough questions, but so far, he is slow to show his quality.  And unfortunately, he is not a great run blocker.  And that is where the shortfall might put the Cowboys right back in the same place they were trying to avoid.  They want to get their running game going.  But, the offensive line has not progressed much and the negative runs were still all around on Saturday. Geno Atkins was still destroying your guards and putting the Cowboys in spots where they were allowing negative plays to lead to punts.  And Escobar cannot help balance the offense out at this point as he is still be taught how to run block on the fly.  But, more importantly, they cannot get the same 2 guards around Travis Frederick for more than a few moments.

It was Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Then, Ron Leary and Bernadeau.  Then, David Arkin and Bernadeau.  Then, Bernadeau and Doug Free.  And, of course, during this time, Brandon Moore and Brian Waters were being courted to replace all of the above.  Free, by the way, looked an awful lot like Arkin in his debut inside.  When he was uncovered, he could help and get to the 2nd level with strong efficiency.  But, when he was challenged at the snap, he was outmatched.  Honestly, how did anyone think that a guy who has strength issues against 260 lb defensive ends think that he would be an option against 300 lb defensive tackles?  I understand having a plan for emergencies, but Free makes almost no sense at guard for precisely the reasons that he struggles at tackle.  It isn't the feet as much as it is the strength.  And guards have to play low and be strong.  Free is not very good at either.

The Cowboys know they have once again over-estimated their guard situation and now are trying to rally on the fly.  But, let's be realistic.  This is not likely to fall perfectly into place.  Despite improving the center position, it still appears that running the ball is going to be difficult with the guard issues that appear to be multiple.

So, why did they want to go to 12 in the first place?  To balance the offense.  To run the ball.  And to create matchup issues down the field with players who are tough to cover.

But, if they can't balance the offense and run the ball, what is the point?  And who creates better issues, the size of Escobar or the speed of Terrence Williams outside?

My conclusion after watching the 1st half on Saturday is that while things can still develop, it seems pretty clear that on August 26th, their best offense in 2013 is the same one that was their only offense in 2012.    That is putting Tony Romo in shotgun, line up 3 wide receivers and Witten and let Romo go to work.  In other words, not 12 personnel.

It is not ideal by any stretch as defenses will then make the nickel their base defense and challenge the Cowboys to run the ball, but at some point you have to make that choice that coaches discuss constantly and the media never discusses enough:  When a coach puts down his playbook and simply accepts what his offense is capable of and more importantly, not capable of, what plays and personnel groupings does he install to play the Giants in 13 days?

If the offense cannot physically compete in the interior of the offensive line, you have to make logical choices that give you the best chance to win.  Ideally, they want to do a number of things, but there is nothing ideal about demoralizing your team and stadium by running into your guards who are being pushed back into the running lanes because they are not strong enough to hold up.  So, you stop running - which defeats the entire scheme of "12 personnel".  Not to say you won't see it, but if you think that they are rolling this out 40-50% of their snaps, we will disagree strongly.

You have a major personnel advantage - but it is not in "12".  Rather, "11" personnel, as we saw Saturday and in 2012, is still where you have a chance to put up yards, points, and wins.  It is not fundamentally ideal, but it is realistic.

In April-August, you can talk ideal views and hopeful projections.  But, as September approaches, the coaching staff is starting to see what most of us feared all along.  Unless Escobar blows people away as an un-coverable force, then spending a 2nd round pick on a 2nd tight end might seem like a superfluous use of resources when he isn't even part of your best grouping.  And while it is early, Escobar having a chance might be tightly linked to your guards allowing you to run the ball.

It is time to get realistic - so expect this offense to use much more Terrence Williams than Escobar in September.  I know I am.

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Camp Blog: Concerns for Leary's Knee and For Cowboys Depth

Reports in cyberspace over the last 24 hours give us considerable concerns with regards to Ronald Leary's knee issues and by extension, the makeup of the entire offensive line as we look ahead to the season opener on September 8 against the Giants.

Leary was an undrafted free agent after the 2012 draft where the Cowboys invested an extraordinary amount of cash for a player that was passed over again and again in the draft itself.  The Cowboys liked him and decided to live with his medical checks that surely knocked him off of many team's lists - including any pick the Cowboys might spend on Caleb McSurdy.

Leary has been a top performer in Oxnard and has given me tremendous optimism about his level of play - his bad knee pending.  But, as we have said a number of times here and everywhere, the trouble with injury prone players is that they spend a considerable amount of time injured.  And when he leaves the team on August 13 - rather than mid November - we are reminded how far the squad has to go in terms of depth.

This is particularly true on both the offensive and defensive line and it is a stark reminder to many of the    hole that this team is trying to dig out of during the present tense to fix the problems of the past tense.

As I have said for several years, the Cowboys top talent is comparable and competitive with those who are in the playoffs every year.  If you'd like, we can say that 1-10 or even 1-15, the Cowboys roster is very good.  It could be better, but it is more than passable with elite talent on its roster.  But, this league is about the ability to show your resolve and ability over the course of 6 months.  And during that time there are a number of physical challenges that result in attrition and subtraction to your resources.  It happens every year as in 2012 when we saw the Cowboys repeatedly sign street free agents who had to not only jump right onto the game-day roster, but many times right onto the field as a starter or key reserve.

Where the Cowboys run into major issues is when they are asked to matchup the bottom 30 on their roster with the bottom 30 elsewhere in the league.  For it is spots 16-45 on game-day that end up winning and losing many seasons.  And often times, during a year, someone in that group will have to elevate and replace someone who is lost from your elite.  If there is a significant drop-off in performance, you are then up a creek without a paddle.  But, if they can supply an adequate replacement, then you can survive.  That is why teams win in this league.  Nobody avoids attrition altogether.  Not all injury totals or injury victims are created equal, but championship teams are built to sustain a certain amount of damage.

So, a team that has little depth has certain spots where it simply cannot afford a hit.  And on this team, for a long, long time, it has been the interior of both the offensive line and the defensive line in total.  Do they have enough players to fill holes with some amount of excellence to survive and play on?  Or, because of the presence of a fringe NFL player who is elevated to start, is the squad no longer able to protect their QB and run their offense.  Are they no longer able to run the Tampa 2 as it is designed?

Rob Ryan will tell you that in 2012, his defense was never seen.  Rather, it was the defense that he was able to run with guys being plugged in every week as brand new players.  Nobody is here to argue that he did a fantastic job as defensive coordinator last year, but if somebody believes that another coordinator could have done more with Dan Connor, Brady Poppinga, and Ernie Sims playing linebacker and Eric Frampton and Charlie Peprah splitting safety duties in Week 17 at Washington, they are likely delusional.

The best teams in this league - as in the deepest - have reserves that are often draft picks that they are developing for just this moment.  San Francisco last season is a great example as their top 2 picks were not even used until December when injuries hit.  But, when they did, they plugged in AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James for the first time in Week 14.  That, is the complete opposite of signing Brady Poppinga off his couch and playing him that Sunday.

Now, that is an extreme example, but when this team now sees Brian Waters as a savior - a guy who hasn't played since 2011 and who is 36 years and is also on his couch right now, it does serve as a reminder that the roster has been greatly improved, but there is a long ways to go.  Waters, of course, is the savior this time, since Brandon Moore wants to retire instead of start at right guard.  And, Waters was the first choice in 2011 (he opted for New England), when the Cowboys ended up keeping another old guard Derrick Dockery from retirement - although his performance was amazingly forgettable.

These are your choices when Stephen Peterman, Pat McQuistan, Robert Brewster, Sam Young, and David Arkin don't pan out.

It is the treadmill of the NFL.  You make a mistake and you now have to make up for it.  You can sit there and say all teams make mistakes, because they do.  But, that doesn't help when Kevin Kowalski is  joining Phil Costa and Dockery trying to block Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre Paul in Week 17 of 2011.

If you want to know why Tony Romo and the Cowboys get killed for their December records, look no further than spots 16-45 on the roster.  When your ship leaves port at Labor Day each year, it can not resupply during the season.  Every player you lose is either replaced by somebody on board or you are grasping at the couch crews.  By December, you have lost 8 pieces of your group and have to plug them internally with picks and prospects.  But, what if you have a hole in your roster the size of 2008 and 2009?

Then, you are hoping Nate Living and Ron Leary hold up health-wise.  And that says nothing about Jay Ratliff playing and playing well for 16 Sundays.  And what if either Ratliff or Jason Hatcher are lost to injury?  What defensive tackle depth have they built?  So little that veteran free agent Nick Hayden and undrafted free agent Ben Bass look to be right with Sean Lissemore as your best options.  Yikes.  Not a ton of rotation players there.

This is a good team.  But, they remain paper thin in spots.  And although everyone is thin at certain spots, there are fewer spots to be thin at than on the line of scrimmage in both directions.  Which leads us back to the question of, "if you have 4 picks in the Top 80, can you afford to take luxury items like a tight end and another wide receiver?"

I was bothered by it in April, but I think we will all be bothered by it in November when we are seeing that the draft priorities in 2014 will be the same as what they should have been in 2012 and 2013; Getting as many 300 pound quality bodies in here as possible.

It is still quite possible that Leary will be able to stay healthy and give this team plenty of quality for the next bunch of years, but David Arkin is starting on Saturday in Arizona and I am still pretty convinced that he is a fringe roster player and certainly not a starter.  Costa remains undersized and out-powered as well, and Livings seems to have a way to go health-wise.

The Cowboys have been drafting better, I believe, but have been operating at a deficit for years and will need several more Bruce Carter home runs before they are back in the black.  In the meantime, cross your fingers and hold your breath.  It is August and the offensive line looks beat up and patched together already.

That is generally not a great sign.

Hope for the best on those medical updates over the next 3 weeks.

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Monday After Preseason: Oakland 19, Dallas 17

In preseason Game #2, the Cowboys slowly ramped up their use of starters to give us our first look in the 2013 camp of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarcus Ware, and others who will be doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting this season when the games really matter.

Clearly, we saw plenty of things that tell us positive things - like a fantastic delayed blitz from Sean Lee that came free and caused another takeaway (can we all imagine what this thing might be capable of if takeaways are no longer a foreign concept?).  It also revealed that there is plenty of work to do with regards to self-inflicted wounds.

Most notably, we are back to an unreasonable amount of offensive penalties that continue to kill drives and put the team behind the chains when trying to make things happen on the scoreboard.  This team always has absurd amounts of yardage and not enough points to show for it.  That comes down to a number of factors that are all linked together in the offensive game.  They are most easily traced back to red zone inefficiency which is often brought down by "drive killers."  And what are drive killers?  Sacks, negative runs, but most inexcusably, penalties.  And what from the penalty family is enough to frustrate everyone?  Presnap penalties?

False start of James Hanna.  False start of Ron Leary.  Holding on Jason Witten.  All in the first 2 drives of the Cowboys (the drives where everyone played) that otherwise could have been worth 14 points.  Instead, they left with 3 points.  That is familiar inefficiency.  On a team where Doug Free led all tackles in penalties in the entire league, and where Tyron Smith and Witten both ranked very highly in their positional groups, then to call that an initiative this season is a fair idea.

Beyond that, there were some fine adjustments made between Tony Romo and Dez Bryant when Tracy Porter jumped a slant route and they improved for a big gain and more promising work from Ronald Leary and Travis Frederick inside for most of the night.  It should be noted, however, that Frederick is noticeably better at center right now than guard.  I would leave him there and not look back.  Especially given that Phil Costa still looks overpowered in certain scenarios.

SPECIAL TEAMS ISSUES

One theme that constantly was heard on Friday night was the disastrous manner in which Rich Bisaccia  and his special teams took center stage and showed us they have plenty of work to do.

It is important to understand how preseason makes special teams analysis almost ridiculous.  A special teams coach does have to prepare his units to be ready to play for preseason - but those units and the group he will actually have in Week 1 are totally different.

I have been told by more than a few personnel people that if you want clues on who is likely to make a team by watching preseason games, watch who they put out to cover kicks to start games.  By the 2nd half, it is mostly comprised of players who will not make the club or who have less than a likely chance.  But, those in the 1st Quarter are the odds-on favorites to make the team based on their value to the special teams.

If you are new this season to my blog, a quick lesson on special teams.  Ask any coach the value of a special teams unit and they will often tell you it is what hinges a fringe team from making the playoffs or not.  In the Cowboys case last season alone, 2 games that were lost could have been converted to wins if the special teams group did not bust so badly.  The road games at Seattle and Baltimore were both easily sabotaged because of a huge return, a blocked kick, or another moment that broke down without warning.  Several other games were affected, and the game at Philadelphia was won with Dwayne Harris putting on a show as a punt returner.

So, if you have 53 players on your roster - with 46 dressed on game-day, you see this is not college football.  Every member of the 46 must be ready to contribute to either offense, defense, or special teams (save for your backup QBs).  Once you consider those numerical realities, you quickly see that anyone who is not playing 50 snaps or more for their offensive or defensive units, must be strong and solid coverage players on kicks and punts.  If they aren't, then you are wasting spots and once injuries hit early in a game, you are in full panic mode as a coaching staff.

Again, filling spots on special teams is not the goal.  The goal is to not lose a game and thus a playoff spot because your special teams were just filled with warm bodies and suddenly a kick return ends your season.  You must have quality and the end game must be at least to play even-up against an opponent in these 15-20 snaps a game that are often ignored by most fans and fantasy football leagues.

When we fill out our projections for the roster - which I will this week - we must place strong consideration to who can cover and block on kick teams if they are not clear-cut starters.  That is why we are foolish to not consider Eric Frampton, JJ Wilcox, Lance Dunbar, Phillip Tanner, Kyle Wilber, Devonte Holloman, and of course, Danny McCray as very likely spine members of Bisaccia's crew.

Coverage units are usually comprised of backup linebackers, tight ends, defensive backs, and certain running backs and wide receivers.  The more you can be trusted to tackle a return man in the open field, the more valuable you make yourself to the team.  And the more valuable you are, the more likely you are to make the team - and then to dress on game day.

Some of these guys - like Tanner, Wilber, McCray, and Holloman will play on all 4 teams - punt cover, punt return, kick cover, and kick return.  That leads to continuity, which then leads to fewer busts because you are constantly turning things over.

The opposite is what affects guys down the list at safety or wide receiver.  Can Cole Beasley help you on special teams?  It is tough given his size, unless he is the actual returner.  Now that Harris and Dez Bryant are that guy, where can Beasley help you?  If he is your 4th or 5th best wide receiver, he will not play many offensive snaps.  No snaps plus no special teams contribution mean that despite his talents, it is a tough call to put him on your roster.  If Danny Coale can play on your special teams and Cole Beasley cannot, you have to know that Beasley must be significantly better on offense to win that battle.  Matt Johnson?  Same issues, although we are just guessing because we haven't really seen him cover yet.  Lance Dunbar?  What if Will Allen is not a starter at safety in October?  Reserves with no special teams value are very difficult to justify unless they play on either line.

So, the issues BW Webb showed as a return man or the overall busts in the 2nd half don't trouble me.  Those guys won't be in those spots when it really matters.  What does concern me is the issues surrounding the units in general.  When guys are on the fringe of the roster - ALWAYS ask what they might help you accomplish on kicks and punts.  If the answer is nothing, then they will have a very hard time surviving the final cuts.

That is the numbers game that is being sorted out in the personnel rooms around the league right now.  You do not want your season to go up in smoke because you got a FG blocked or a punt returned.

If someone makes the team and you can't figure out why, know that it is very likely because Rich Bisaccia argued hard that he needs him on his specialty units.  He will assemble a spine group of 5-7 and fill in the gaps with the table scraps from Jason Garrett and Monte Kiffin.  And then he will be expected to never lose the Cowboys a game.  It is not as easy a gig as some think.

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Live From Oxnard: The 17 Pre-Garrett Cowboys

It isn't too difficult to pick through the public speeches of Jason Garrett to see the items that he deems worthy of pounding home on his 2013 campaign trail.

If you listen to a few of them, you do pick up on the words that are most often used, including "passion", "energy", and of course, one that seems to have gone missing early in camp '13, "process".  Not sure if he has retired the term, "process", but at least for now, it has been taken out of the rotation.

However, this spring and summer, he has reflected quite a few times about how the program is being built with a certain type of player and a certain type of roster.  During these quick moments of reflection, he generally mentions a number of "17 players" that were here when he coached his 1st game on November 14, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium against the New York (Football) Giants.

You may or may not remember this chart we made at the end of last season on "How the Cowboys were built", but either way, here it is with the different colors designating the different coaching regimes.  Top Silver is Garrett, Blue is Phillips, Bottom Silver is Parcells.

YEAR	DRAFT PICKS	FREE AGENTS	UNDRAFTED FAs
2012	Claiborne, Crawford, Wilber, Johnson, Hanna, Coale, McSurdy	Livings, Bernardeau, Orton, Vickers, Carr, Sims, Moore	Beasley, Leary, Dunbar, Bass
2011	Smith, Carter, Murray, Arkin, Harris		Kowalski, Tanner, Callaway, Albright, Jones, Bailey
2010	Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore		P Costa, J Parnell, B Church, D McCray
2009
2008	Orlando Scandrick
2007	Anthony Spencer, Doug Free
2006	Jason Hatcher		Miles Austin
2005	DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff	LP Ladocuer
2004
2003	Jason Witten		Tony Romo

We will wait until the 2013 additions have made the team to redo this chart with the appropriate additions and subtractions, but for now, that gives you a pretty good idea of the soft underbelly that 2008 and 2009 presented the 2013 roster.

For one thing, the drafts (as has been reported on numerous occasions here and everywhere) certainly left the team in dire straits.  But, let's not underestimate that the undrafted rookie free agency bins and the free agency signings were non-existent there, too.  They literally added no players who could last for almost 24 months straight.  What was everyone doing in the personnel department during 2008 and 2009?  Actually, the truth might be that so many assets were lost in the Roy Williams trade that they didn't have much they could do.  Still....

As you can see, 2010 is looking to be a very plentiful season that should help this team recover.  Everyone can see that Dez Bryant and Sean Lee both have a chance to be cornerstones here for the balance of their careers like the greats Witten and Ware, perhaps, but don't lose sight of the others added during that season:  Barry Church, Jermey Parnell, Phil Costa, and Danny McCray all were undrafted free agents and Parnell was a practice squad signing from New Orleans.  All are players that have significant roles here today of either starters, depth, or special teams contributors.  Same for Sean Lissemore who was found in the 7th round that year.  We won't mention again the football ramifications of losing a young bull like Josh Brent, but safe to say that he would likely have played 500 snaps this season if he hadn't made another horrendous life decision last December.

Here is the game-book front page from Garrett Game #1 and you may click on it to see the entire roster from that game when Garrett took over the 1-7 2010 Cowboys:

And now I further altered it with blue accents with just the "Pre Garrett 17" Cowboys:

Given that this was less than 3 full seasons ago, it does shed light on how quickly things change in the NFL.  Only 3 offensive and 3 defensive starters remain from the team that took the field that day.

Today's rosters are largely built through the draft as there are no free agents from other NFL teams on this roster from before 2012 except for the Cowboys long snapper, LP Ladouceur.

Jerry Jones and Garrett have quickly turned this thing over.  We think that the NFL is a great departure from college football and the mentality that every season is a new team that we all expect in the college ranks.  But, perhaps this chart shows us differently.

Sure, there are a few players who can stay a decade.  But, overall, when you have a guy like Orlando Scandrick that is now one of your 10 longest-tenured Cowboys, you can see that you better be careful when you a buy a jersey of a young player.  There is very little evidence that they are promised to see their 5 year anniversary in a Cowboys uniform.  I imagine there are plenty of Felix Jones jerseys available on EBay these days.

So those are your 17 Cowboys who were here when Garrett took the job promotion.  I figure you can dazzle those in the next cubicle over with guys like Barry Church and Danny McCray.  Even Parnell was added a month before the change was made at head coach.  And all of those names are now veterans for the young guys behind them.

Hard to believe and yet it is the reality of the NFL.

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How The Cowboys Were Built

There was a little communication this week between the brass of the Dallas Cowboys and the beat writers who gather for every word, and Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star Telegram found something worth discussing in his conversation with Jason Garrett on Wednesday from the NFL Owners Meetings in Arizona.  

Let's take a look at what he offered:

As he prepares for his third draft class, Garrett says his program is firmly in place with his type of guys and 2013 is a big year to take the next step. 

"Absolutely, that’s why this draft is so critical," Garrett said Wednesday at the NFL owners meetings. "You want to be able to continue to add to the culture we’ve developed the last couple years, and a lot of the culture has to do with who you are as a head coach, who your staff is and what they represent. A lot of it has to do with the people you bring in, the players you bring in, and what they’re all about. We’ve tried to do a really good job of that. We feel good about how we’ve drafted, how we’ve kind of structured our football team, and the kinds of people we’re bringing in.” 

Only 16 players, including just seven starters, are left on the roster from the team that Garrett took over in 2010. 

"I think we’ve done a good job over the last couple years, like we talked earlier, transitioning our roster from a lot of older players to some younger players, still keep ourselves in competitive situations at the end of the year, having a chance to compete for the division," Garrett said. "We brought in some young players who can be the cornerstones for us going forward to add to the Tony Romos, the DeMarcus Wares, the Jason Ratliffs, Jason Wittens, those guys who have been big, significant players for us in the past. Now you think about Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, all those guys. 

“The identity we’ve established together gives us a chance going forward."

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/03/20/4717338/from-top-to-bottom-garrett-says.html#storylink=cpy

This is a topic worth visiting about that I am happy the coach brought up.

Listed below is a chart that will show you with relative clarity how the Cowboys were built and you will see that the majority of the roster has been put in place since Jason Garrett took over the team in November of 2010.  Even though he has had just 2 drafts, 29 of the 47 players who have made this roster can be traced back to Garrett.

Hill writes that only 16 remain - I count 18 - but, the point is the same.  This is mostly Garrett's team from a quantity standpoint.  The question continues whether or not it can be said that from a quality standpoint.  Are the 29 names listed in grey in 2011 and 2012 players that are carrying most of the weight on this team?  Or, do we still look at 2003-2006 as containing most of the quality back when Bill Parcells roamed the halls of Valley Ranch?

And, of course, listen in blue from 2007-2010, the Wade Phillips/Jerry Jones war-room that we would all like to forget about for the most part - save that 2010 when Dez Bryant and Sean Lee salvaged an entire era with their acquisitions.

Check out the chart below:

YEAR	DRAFT PICKS	FREE AGENTS	UNDRAFTED FAs
2012	Claiborne, Crawford, Wilber, Johnson, Hanna, Coale, McSurdy	Livings, Bernardeau, Orton, Vickers, Carr, Sims, Moore	Beasley, Leary, Dunbar, Bass
2011	Smith, Carter, Murray, Arkin, Harris		Kowalski, Tanner, Callaway, Albright, Jones, Bailey
2010	Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore, Josh Brent		P Costa, J Parnell, B Church, D McCray
2009
2008	Orlando Scandrick
2007	Anthony Spencer, Doug Free
2006	Jason Hatcher		Miles Austin
2005	DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff	LP Ladocuer
2004
2003	Jason Witten		Tony Romo

Currently, there are way more names on their active roster than 47, but I only list the names who have proven they have made a roster at some point here.  Most of these players have at least worn a jersey for one game or in Ron Leary's case been basically guaranteed a roster spot with his contract.

We should also note that there are a few more players lingering out there that could be re-signed (Felix Jones) that would help prop up 2008 and he would still be considered a continuous service Cowboy.  But, I am not holding my breath that he is in their plans.

It is also interesting to see what a small effect that free agency has had on this team.  They do have the reputation of not "growing through the draft", but as you can clearly see, this team is built almost 100% through the draft - and undrafted free agents signed every April - except for the players they have brought in during 2012.

This team - for better or for worse - is home grown for the most part.  They are primarily players who have never played for another team and have been here long term.  In fact, as you look at it, the most disconcerting element is the fingerprint that Parcells still leaves 7 seasons after he has left.  Only now, after the 2011 and 2012 seasons of Bryant and Lee can we say that Parcells didn't put the entire "best 5" Cowboys on this roster.

Garrett has tried carefully to find the "right kind of player" who understands all of those character traits that he believes are part of building a team properly.  He has pushed for them to target players who were captains on their college teams or have held other leadership positions.  And the jury is obviously out on whether this has dramatically changed the fabric of the organization.

Why?  Because, in the end, it comes down to whether they are able to win games, divisions, playoff games, and hopefully, a Super Bowl.  You can have the best leaders in the NFL, but they better be able to block and tackle on their way to leading.  And that has been the rub here.

But, if we can understand that it is tough to turn a program around in the blink of an eye, we must at least consider the fact that there is a bigger picture to consider here.  Are we seeing slow growth and youth development going on underneath the surface of conversations of play-calling and Romo's future?  Is there something being built as Garrett references?

One would hope so.  Garrett has a hand in what is going on and a plan for how to get there.  Of course, so has - we hope - every coach who has ever taken over a team at the professional level in any sport.

The trick is to hang around long enough to see it through.  And that is the question for any owner running any team.  To figure out if their coach is on to something awesome that requires 5 years or if they are just wasting resources for this guy to figure it all out.  Is this Bill Belichick in Cleveland?  Jerry admits he should have given Chan Gailey longer to sort through a very complicated situation when he took over the 1998 Cowboys.  Or is this Dave Campo or Wade Phillips?  Because some coaches are miscast as architects who have a global vision.  You can wait 15 years and it might only be getting worse.

I think most people agree that tangible results need to happen this year for Garrett to feel safe about coaching in 2014 here.  There is plenty of pressure and not a ton of patience for this upcoming season and it all starts with getting this draft right.

And perhaps that will be his calling card.  Looking at the chart, it seems that if anything can be considered a clear upgrade since Garrett's arrival, it seems that potentially, the process in the draft room has clearly exceeded his predecessor.  Is that more of a praise of Garrett/Jones or underscoring the poor job done by Jones/Wade?  Fair question.  And as we look at Garrett's challenges, is one of them that is not discussed enough trying to pull this thing out of the personnel ditch that Wade/Jerry had put them in?

If DeMarco Murray, Bruce Carter, Dwayne Harris continue to develop, Tyron Smith and Mo Claiborne continue on their road to being long-term building blocks, and we see much of the 2012 draft class emerge, maybe this slow-build technique will have long-term results.

The question is whether Garrett will be here to enjoy it or whether the next guy will see that maybe the cupboard is not that bare.

Regardless, I thought it might help to see just when and how everyone on the roster has arrived.  This didn't happen overnight and the fix won't happen quickly either.

But, Garrett now feels like his team is in place.  Let's see what that means on the field in 2013.

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2009 Draft - The Dead Horse On the Roster

As the Cowboys sit out the free agent season so far, it is time to reflect on the fact that a few former Cowboys have found employment elsewhere.  In fact, one former Cowboy player in particular represents one of the last traces to the 2009 draft, as John Phillips has signed to play for the next 3 years in San Diego.

The 2009 draft, a term that is a gut punch to most Cowboys fans, as it represents part of the giant hole in the roster that should be constituted of 25 and 26-year olds, like Phillips, who would be doing much of the heavy lifting for an organization.  Players who you would be fighting to retain and pay for the prime of their careers from ages 26-30.

This, of course, is one of the maddening facts about the Cowboys roster.  One has a fantastic collection of players who are over 30 - one of the best in the league, actually - and a fine collection of players who are from the 2010-2012 drafts, too.  But, those years at the end of the last decade have caused the Cowboys to struggle on the field and then have to overpay players in their 30s to squeeze every last ounce of their abilities out before they retire.

There is that staggering gap in the Cowboys roster.  Much can be traced to the 2009 draft and the Roy Williams trade that preceded it.  People often ask, "why can't you let that go?"  They want to know why you beat a dead horse.  Why do you still talk about a trade from 5 seasons ago?

Simple.  Trades that happen 5 years ago have a profound impact on what you are able to do in 2013 and 2014.  Why?  Because, those picks that you give away in 2008 for the 2009 draft should be the heart and soul of your team in 2013.

And it if isn't?  Then, you have cap issues and holes on your roster that you cannot afford to fix.

In general, the 2009 draft isn't very good.  There are a few teams that found significant upgrades in that draft - for instance, Green Bay grabbed BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, and TJ Lang in their 1st 3 picks, Philadelphia found Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy with their top 2 selections - but, for the most part, '09 will not go down in the history books as one of the ripest orchards for talent.

That being said, the Cowboys lack of production from their picks is shockingly sad.  Here are the 12 picks and beside their names, fine the career snaps in which they lined up as Cowboys.  TOTAL.

Name - Round	Career Snaps in Dallas
Jason Williams  - 3rd	14
Robert Brewster - 3rd	0
Stephen McGee - 4th	175
Victor Butler - 4th	814
Brandon Williams - 4th	0
DeAngelo Smith - 5th	0
Michael Hamlin - 5th	17
David Buehler - 5th	0 (kicker)
Stephen Hodge - 6th	0
John Phillips - 6th	873
Mike Mickens - 7th	0
Manuel Johnson - 7th	42

And now the book is fully closed on the entire 2009 draft, assuming Victor Butler isn't retained which is highly unlikely.  A grand total of 1,935 snaps were taken by 12 draft picks in the entire careers here in Dallas.

As a comparison, the 2012 class is already at 1,582 snaps in just 1 season.  And even that number needs to be higher.  But, the signs are there that you might have 4 starters from 2012 when it all shakes out.  2009?  There was never 1 starter for even 1 moment that wasn't an emergency fill-in for injury.  

Just know that each game has about 60-65 snaps from scrimmage on both sides of the ball.  With 11 players on each side of the ball, that is about 660 snaps per game that has to be filled - or 10,560 per season for the offense and another 10,560 on average for the defense.

If you need 21,120 snaps to be taken by your team each year, you better get more than 1,935 from an entire draft class for their entire career.

One stat that might hurt is that a regular from that draft - Clay Matthews (one of several players that were available to the Cowboys if they held their pick #20 instead of Detroit) has played 3,957 regular season snaps since that draft by himself.

Also, please don't blame the entire 2009 draft disaster on the Roy Williams trade.  The Cowboys twice traded back to "accumulate picks" and each time they found nothing.  They were at #51 and decided to trade back for #75 (Robert Brewster) and #110 (Victor Butler).   Players taken from #51-#58 include Andy Levitre, LeSean McCoy, Phil Loadholt, William Moore, Paul Kruger, and Sebastian Vollmer.  Or, in other words, most all of the top free agents in this free agency season.  Then, at #117, they bolted back for #120 (Brandon Williams) and #229 (Manuel Johnson).

They also traded up with picks #155 and #213 to go get #143.  They found a guy they wanted in DeAngelo Smith who never played a snap with the team.  You certainly hate to waste 2 picks on a guy who doesn't even make your team for one week.  His claim to fame as my friend Todd Archer recalls was that he was the guy that David Buehler beat in the 40 yard dash at training camp.  Anytime your kicker beats a DB in a race means you have a fast kicker or a slow defensive back...or both.

The book is closed on the 2009 draft.  They will be remembered for 2 things - their heroic efforts in dragging many men to safety in the infamous practice facility collapse in May of 2009 at their initial rookie camp and being part of a draft class that sadly did not amount to much of anything on the roster for years to come.

Phillips was a blocking tight end and Victor Butler a rarely used situational pass rusher.  McGee was a project QB who never developed properly.  The rest never even made a dent at all.

And now, the roster has voids.  Too many to fill.

That is why the dead horse continues to be beaten.  2008 has 1 survivor in Orlando Scandrick and 2010 is down to 3.  So, from 2008-2010, with 24 selections, the Cowboys retain 4 players total from a group that should be between 24-27 years old or the prime of a franchise.

This is why we emphasize the draft in this space.  It is the very life-blood of a franchise.  Or the death of it.

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Roster to 53 - Version 3.0 (Final)

The "Morning After" column after the final preseason game is all about gathering all the information that we have and constructing the final roster. That is my mission this morning.

Trying to predict an NFL roster cuts requires a major ingredient for accuracy sake that is never readily available. That is being able to read the mind of the guys in that war room who are arguing for or against a certain player making the team. I really enjoy this exercise of trying to find the final 53, but it is a highly subjective contest, like predicting the winner of a art or cooking contest. Unless you fully understand the tastes and opinions of the judges or decision makers, you are not on the right path. It is not necessarily the best 53 player. It is the best 53 according to Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones, Jason Garrett, Tom Ciskowski and any other voices at Valley Ranch who have a little decision-making leverage (Rob Ryan).

So, as I watched the practices, scrimmage, and pre-season games, that becomes the challenge. The easy part is identifying how many players they are likely to take at a given position, pick what you perceive to be the best players at that position, and cutting everyone else. But, we know it is not that easy. We have to factor in other ideas. Age, salary, potential, rare traits, and things like eligibility to play on the practice squad. You must get down to 53, but the Injured Reserve and Physically Unable To Peform lists also help you to massage that number without exposing a given player to the rest of the league (like the elected to do with Bill Nagy a few weeks back).

Today, I want to take one final run at the final roster and briefly discuss each player that is on the fence for the roster. As is the case every year, there are some easy cuts and some very difficult ones. But, most important thing to remember is that I can certainly not predict what is going on inside Jerry Jones' head. If I could, I would have told him not to do the Roy Williams trade or to agree to the Papa John's rap commercial.

It is also worth noting that every year, but this year in particular, the Cowboys are likely looking at cuts from around the league to crack the Cowboys final roster. That means, the final roster (By 8pm Friday night) will not be the final roster. A guy could make the 53, only to be replaced by Sunday or Monday. It happens every year. I anticipate the Cowboys will sign someone else's cut offensive tackle over the weekend, but there is no way to predict that.

One final time, let me show you my chart from their last 5 roster cuts to show how the Cowboys think philosophically in the department of roster construction:

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
QB	2	2	3	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4
WR	6	5	5	5	5
OL	10	11	10	10	10
DL	6	6	6	7	7
LB	7	8	9	9	7
DB	11	11	9	9	9
ST	3	3	4	3	4
Total	53	53	53	53	53

Table Tutorial

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2007 , Archer 2008 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.

Yesterday, I identified 32 players as guys who had already made the team. As opposed to discussing obvious choices, let's just all agree that there is virtually no chance the following players are not on the final Cowboys roster.

They are: D Bryant, M Austin, T Smith, N Livings, P Costa, M Bernadeau, D Free, J Witten, T Romo, L Vickers, D Murray, J Phillips, J Hanna, K Orton, and F Jones on offense. J Ratliff, J Hatcher, A Spencer, S Lee, D Ware, B Carr, B Church, G Sensabaugh, M Claiborne, T Crawford, V Butler, B Carter, O Scandrick, and S Lissemore. And 3 specialists. C Jones, D Bailey and LP Ladouceur. Those 32 make the team without question, in my estimation.

That leaves 21 jobs on the line from 43 players.

Here are those jobs:

#33 - Kevin Ogletree: He has done enough to make the squad as a versatile WR who has built up some trust. It is still a big year from him and he could fall out of favor in just a few weeks, but for now, I don't see a scenario under which he is not on the roster.

#34 - Dwayne Harris: Similarly, Harris offers versatility, special teams contributions, and enough plays made from the slot and the outside to suggest that he is comfortably on the roster.

#35 - Jeremy Parnell: I am almost to the point on Parnell that I think he is ready to spot start a few games if injuries happen. I think he has proven to be a shrewd signing and a player they extended on a nice number through 2014 as a swing tackle who will dress and be active every game.

#36 - Mike Jenkins: There is no reason not to keep Jenkins around unless you get a great offer. Corners get injured. To have a reserve ready who has this many starts under his belt is a rare luxury. Alan Ball and Bryan McCann played significant snaps last season and the Cowboys are actually prepared to survive injuries this year at corner. Also, dime defense is a bigger and bigger unit in the NFL these days.

#37 - Dan Conner: He has not blown anyone away with his camp, but I assume his bonus and his resume assures him a spot. He also looks like a guy who will spend some time on the kickoff and punt teams as time goes on. If Bruce Carter doesn't take Conner's spot away soon, that will tell us more about Carter. Conner should be fine, but we have seen that teams will attack him through the air and try to isolate him. He looks solid, but I have my questions about how much better things will be with him over James and Brooking.

#38 - Danny McCray: He is the modern day Sam Hurd (on the field) in that he will be a special teams captain and hold that unit together. He also has a knack for being around the ball when he is put on the field in the big nickel (5 DBs but 3 safeties) and can pull off some LB when he needs to. Versatility and trust-worthy are two attributes that make this team. McCray is safe with ease.

#39 - Josh Brent: Can't teach size. The Cowboys want more impact from Brent, but big guys require patience. He has a chance to be overtaken by Lissemore on the nose and even Callaway, but for now, they like his upside and youth.

#40 - Mario Butler: The surprise of camp for me. I had little regard for his courage, physical traits, and nose for the ball a month ago. Now, I am comfortable with him as a 4th corner if Jenkins leaves. Very nice find.

#41 - Alex Albright: Again, versatility and trust-worthy. A guy who plays on all special teams and a guy who can play inside and outside LB. Another nice job by the personnel department to find Alex.

#42 - Mana Silva: This guy has emerged out of nowhere. Silva was not on my radar at all until Matt Johnson's train never left the depot. But, he is just the type of guy who can play on all special teams and appears to have some upside as a deep safety. I like what I have seen and continue to wish to see more. It is possible the Cowboys have stumbled upon something nice here.

#43 - Ronald Leary: Leary makes the team as a developmental interior offensive line guy, but I must confess that he has been a pretty big disappointment so far. This idea that he was a ready-made NFL guard just isn't true. He is constantly being beat at the line and even turned around in some scenarios. His bonus was large and we must be patient with big guys, but I don't see much in 2012 to plan on. He is the first of the "will make the 53 but don't plan on seeing him active much" group.

#44 - Orie Lemon: I think he makes the team as a special teams pillar. Dependable and can play inside.

#45 - Cole Beasley: I concede that I didn't see this as a possibility in July, but now as I predict what the Cowboys are thinking, I just don't see Jerry and Stephen allowing his weaknesses to deter them. Not sure where this leads, but he will get his chance to make an impact in Week 1. Quite a story of defying odds here.

#46 - Kenyon Coleman: As I have stated over and over, I think either Coleman or Spears is done here. I also concede that Spears is more likely to stay if contracts or age are the difference, but I think Coleman is better at the job of "early down run stuffing". So, I don't have a ton of confidence in this pick, but I am going to go with football over dollars. And if plays over cap hits wins, it is Coleman. But, Spears may survive on being younger and having more guaranteed money.

#47 - Daniel Loper: This one could also be iffy, but I think Loper is a better football player than Derrick Dockery. If I dress 7 or 8 on game day, I think Loper is more likely to fill in for an injured guard and do fine. They both are veterans, so both would make $825,000 if they made the team. Which one do you like more to dress every game? For me, it is Loper. But, I concede that Jerry talks about Dockery more.

#48 - Adrian Hamilton: Controversial, but if a LBs best attribute is pass rushing, I think you owe it to yourself to teach him special teams. He may be inactive at first, but I have no confidence he could sneak through to the practice squad. You must protect him if you think he has anything, and I belive he has shown enough to invest in. However, when things get tight, I do admit that his spot will be looked at very carefully.

#49 - David Arkin: Here is a player that I would not keep due to obvious concerns with strength. However, they invested a 4th in him and have built at least some confidence that he could play center in a pinch. I just don't see him ever being much at guard. That being said, their candidates at center if Costa gets hurt again is a very, very short list. On that alone, I think Arkin is safe for now.

#50 - Phillip Tanner: He is useful as a 3rd RB and as a special teams guy. I think he made it, despite missing plenty of preseason action.

#51 - Kyle Wilbur: Despite his injury, I think you owe it to yourself to protect him and add another quality OLB prospect to your pile. He makes my team.

#52 - Danny Coale: Again, I am going to trust my scouts who loved him on draft day. He has been hurt, but he also has credibility based on 4 years at Virginia Tech and a resume of being a valuable piece. It has been a tough start, but I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water. He makes it over Andre Holmes for now, by an eyelash.

#53 - Shaun Chapas: This is the guy in biggest jeopardy on the waiver wire. If the Cowboys find something they like more that comes along, then Chapas will be first voted off the island, I think. Otherwise, he is another trustworthy special teams piece on game-day.

That is the 53 man roster.
========================

To Injured Reserve/PUP - Matt Johnson: I believe Johnson will be retained and basically red-shirted for 2012. He has too much to offer to expose him to the league yet.

========================

And now, those who missed the cut:

#54 - Andre Holmes: This is not an easy cut, but I am already keeping 6 WRs and Holmes is the one who Beasley beat out. This violates every rule of scouting due to Holmes speed, height, and flashes of sensational play, but consistency and dependability have bitten him. Practice Squad?

#55 - Jamize Olawale: Could possibly take Chapas' job, but I don't think he did enough on special teams to convince the Cowboys to take a chance. Definitely a practice squad candidate.

#56 - Rob Callaway: I wanted to keep Big Rob. I like what he has, but I think it comes down to Callaway or Brent. I think with Lissemore, they won't keep both. And, Brent was the guy who had to be unseated.

#57 - Lance Dunbar: Useful piece, just can't keep another undersized player on my 53. Those guys who cannot play special teams but also have no role on your offense cannot sit unused on your active roster. Practice Squad.

#58 - Marcus Spears: Good locker-room guy and respected team-mate. But, there is no justification of the $2 million salary that I can detect.

#59 - Clifton Geathers: I see the amazing frame. I don't see plays that go with it. They have shown patience here and I think cutting bait is the proper move.

#60 - Ben Bass: Useful prospect who might make it to the practice squad for now.

#61 - Tim Benford: He has something, but there is no place for him. Practice Squad candidate.

The rest are far easier cuts for me: S Hakim, J Adams, H Gunn, P McQuistan, D Dockery, A Szczerba, S McGee, R Carpenter, B Atkins, L Smith, A Owusu-Ansah, E Whitley, T Williams. Of these, I think Carpenter and Williams might hang around for the practice squad, too.

Noteworthy of the above group is that Owusu Ansah and McQuistan have both been brought back for another look after being released and their play in preseason just confirmed what the Cowboys saw when they cut them loose last time.

So, that is what I came up with. Odds are very good that I will not predict the Cowboys thinking accurately, but it is fun to try.

By position, I kept 2 QB, 5 RB, 3 TE, 6 WR, 9 OL, 6 DL, 10 LB, 9 DB, and 3 specialists. Admittedly, 10 LBs seems awful thick, so perhaps a trade could happen from that group because they all have value. Also, 6 DL is a bit light, so a Callaway for a LB swap (Lemon or Hamilton) is not out of the question, either. And Chapas might only be around until they take the best available tackle off waivers.

Feel free to comment below or Email me at sturm1310@me.com to take issue.

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