Your 2013 Dallas Cowboys!

After giving the personnel department a few days to figure everything out, the Cowboys have finally settled on their week 1 roster.  For historical purposes, we will actually have to stick with the 53 men who the Cowboys turned into the league on Saturday at the 5 pm deadline, but as we said last week, a proper NFL roster is in the constant state of development and is never fully set.

In fact, once we get through the week 1 games, then a number of business thresholds are met.  For the vested veteran - a player with 4+ years of service time, his salary becomes guaranteed if he is on the 53 for Week 1.  This causes teams to have their eyes on a veteran but to not actually he bring him to town until September 9th, the day after their 1st game.  Players signed in that scenario may be signed under an arrangement where they make their salary only in weeks where they are on the roster.  That may not seem like an issue that is a big deal to many of us and worth the trouble, but to a team that is up against the cap (or has an in-season extension in mind for one of its pending free agents), it can free up quite a bit of needed 2013 dollars.

And, of course, once foot meets leather on Sunday Night, injuries start to happen that will continue to keep the personnel department busy and that roster in a constant state of flux.  It is the way the sport works.

But, now let's lock in that original 53 and the subsequent moves already made to look at how this thing shapes up here in 2013:

Final 53:


Quarterbacks (2):  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar

Tight Ends (5):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, Andre Smith, Dante Rosario

Wide Receivers (5): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley

Offensive Line (10)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, David Arkin, Darion Weems.

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen

Linebackers (5): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman

Cornerbacks (4): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb

Safety (6) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton, Jeff Heath

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur


From there, the following transactions have happened:

- Cowboys Place Nate Livings on Injured Reserve (roster to 52)
- Cowboys trade 6th in 2014 to KC for Edgar Jones, LB and 7th in 2014 (53)
- Cowboys trade Sean Lissemore to SD for 7th in 2014 (52)
- Cowboys claim Kyle Bosworth, LB from Giants (53)
- Cowboys trade Dante Rosario to Chicago for 7th in 2014 (roster sits at 52)

Also, they named their practice squad to open 2013:

- Alex Tanney, QB
- Jakar Hamilton, S
- Tim Benford, WR
- Danny Coale, WR
- Jason Vega, DE
- Micah Pellerin, S
- Cameron Lawrence, LB
- Ray Dominguez, G

They have room to add another body still - something likely to happen today - along the offensive or defensive lines.  But, we should give credit to the Cowboys for flipping bodies for picks.  In this cynical climate we live in regarding the Cowboys, we should never thumb our noses at acquiring picks.  They always have a chance to find something nice or to be used as future ammunition to move up in the draft for the right reasons.

As we break this thing down, I will draw your attention to a fun little info-graphic that the Cowboys website has made itself.  As we all know, 9 out of 10 astronauts endorse info-graphics as the learning tool of the future.

I think the moves over the weekend confirm some real issues with special teams that are being addressed.  Expect Bosworth and Jones to both step right in as special teams contributors and be on all kick and punt teams as early as Sunday Night.  Rosario was being kept for that it seems, but once they were offered something of substance by the Bears (and oddly, Joe DeCamilis' special teams), the Cowboys cashed in.

Quick thoughts on where the 53 sits - there are still major questions about how the offensive line will perform or even line up on Sunday.  It seems Ron Leary is ready to roll (or very close) and therefore, we might have Free returning to tackle, but it is tough to say.

However, the issues on this team remain up front.  If ever there was a feeling that they are one more injury away from disaster, I think you could use that with their Ratliff situation on the defensive line.  They have found some reasonable replacement ideas, but the quality is dropping quickly and any more bodies lost could cause the dam to break.  I was hoping one of their claims would be at defensive tackle, but they passed on Marvin Austin (waived by Giants) which tells us he must still not be healthy enough for Dallas to take a run at him.

Today is the player's off day as the coaches finally put the finishing touches on their game-plan.  Tomorrow, they welcome in the 53 (52) man roster and get to work with their first normal work-week of 2013.  They open with a divisional opponent that has beaten them 4 out of 4 trips to Arlington when the NY Giants come calling again.

There is no tip-toeing into this year.  The schedule advises the Cowboys to grab September - easily their easiest month in terms of first glance schedule evaluation - and build a strong record early for the first time in a while.

Since moving to the new Cowboys Stadium, they have started their seasons by allowing the rabbits to run away and hide:

2009: 2-2
2010: 1-3
2011: 2-2
2012: 2-2

If you follow the NFC East, you know that the Giants always seem to start 6-2 or so, so building a nice deficit is a habit that needs to be overcome.  And playing the Giants at home, at Kansas City, the Rams at home, and at the Chargers says that 3-1 in September should be reasonable plan.

And now, we get ready for the start.  Just 5 more days.

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Wondering Where DeMarco Is Headed

One of the talking points out of Saturday's victory over Cincinnati was the benching of DeMarco Murray by Jason Garrett after the running back put the ball on the ground in the 1st Quarter.  It seemed to annoy Murray quite a bit and it certainly has helped fill some segments of radio as we discuss the relative authority demanded and distributed by the Cowboys' coach.  We discussed how Garrett is growing into his role recently, and this did not hurt that development one bit.

The DeMarco Murray story - as we hit year 3 already - is an interesting one to say the least.  He has been billed as a fantastic heir to the running back throne in Dallas which Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith once ruled.  Whether he is close to that quality remains to be seen in more than short bursts, but it is easy to see how he can make people forget Troy Hambrick, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice.

Now, he has to prove that he is more than Julius Jones, 2004 or Marion Barber, 2007 - which is, a fantastic start to a career, but that proved to be the high-water mark rather than a sign of things to come.

Babe Laufenberg had quite interesting numbers on the broadcast on Saturday night about the falloff of the numbers from DeMarco Murray since his November 2011 which set his bar very, very high.

In fact, the numbers are actually quite interesting to look at between Julius Jones and DeMarco.

First, Murray as we separate his first 100 carries from the rest.


DEMARCO MURRAY

Attempts	Yards	YPA	10+ Runs	Runs for Loss
1-100	674	6.74	17	18
next 225	886	3.9	15	71

And now, let's turn back the clock on Julius Jones in what is relatively the same two samples from 2004 and 2005:

JULIUS JONES

Attempts	Yards	YPA	10+ Runs	Runs for Loss
1-98	445	4.5	12	24
next 219	797	3.6	20	49

Clearly, you would rather have Murray no matter which way you slice it, but that is hardly real strong praise in that Julius Jones turned out to be a enormous falloff from Stephen Jackson - the guy that the Cowboys was thought was comparable to Jones on Draft Day 2004.

And, we better remember that Murray's drop off might have far more to do with those blocking in front of him rather than his own performance.  But, that is the discussion, right?  When it is time to pay DeMarco, you aren't going to pay him based on the quality of the offensive line.  You are going to pay him on his own quality - and it is their job to figure out where one ends and the next begins.

Which take us to what we love so much about Murray.  As his last 2 touches on Saturday night showed, he is a load to bring down.  He shoved a fantastic stiff arm into the helmet of a would-be tackler and then on the dump off pass from Kyle Orton, he made several Bengals miss on his way to the end zone.  He runs so hard.  He punishes on the way in.  He is relentless in his effort and seems to pattern his game after his predecessor at Oklahoma, Adrian Peterson (who doesn't?).

So, here come the next 2 questions about that style.

1) - Can you do it and stay healthy?

2) - Can you do it and hold on to the football?

And these, more so than the production to a certain point, are the determiners in what Murray becomes. Is he a back who is here in 2018?  Or, is he a back who is only here until he can be replaced with a new model in the 2015 draft?

The health has been detailed.  He broke his right ankle in 2011 and then sprained a foot in 2012 that kept him out of 6 weeks of action as well.  Can a player with the high miles from Oklahoma and his style stay on the field in the NFL when he plays that high and that hard?

And then, the fumbles.  It could be argued that Adrian Peterson's fumble issues in 2009 kept the Minnesota Vikings out of the Super Bowl (see NFC Championship Game in New Orleans) and in that offseason, Peterson was determined to fix it.  Since then, in 933 touches, he has fumbled a total of 6 times or once every 155 touches.

Murray, in 385 career touches has fumbled 4 times.  Not horrible, but once every 96 touches and had 2 last December that were crucial.  Once against Pittsburgh which cost the Cowboys points in a very close game as he fumbled and lost the ball at the Steelers' 7 yard line.  And then, in a tight loss to New Orleans, he fumbled in a tie game at the Cowboys 3 yard line, setting up the Saints nicely.

And, that is one principle reason why Garrett had to shut down Murray for a bit.  Yes, fumbles will happen.  But, as he said, a handoff has to be a safe play.  A running back is the last guy that should be fumbling.  He has to know that when he declares war on his tacklers, they will be going for that ball to teach him a lesson on going down at first contact.

The other assignment he blew on Saturday was the first play of the game when he ran past a blitzer who sacked Tony Romo.  He did not make the right read and his QB was hit hard near his own goal line.  These are big responsibilities, and he has to prove he can handle them all.

So, what does the future hold for Murray?  I imagine he controls the Cowboys season to a certain extent.  He has to stay on the field and he cannot get demoralized by poor blocking.  He can make this team a real contender if he can play anything like he did in November 2011.  But, that is historic stuff.

He is a pivotal player who can set the tone and be a leader by his ferocious style.  But, he also has to be above handing the ball over or getting himself hurt because of picking one too many battles.  It is a lot on his plate.

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Oxnard Blog: On Parcells, Garrett, And Keepin It Real

One of the more enjoyable aspects of Hall of Fame weekend was reflecting on the coaching ability and traits of Bill Parcells.  The Hall of Fame coach did a nice job of talking about his career and thanking people, but he couldn't help but drop in a few of his philosophies of coaching that I so respected.

And it is clear, by the way, that when it comes to Parcells, and the way he believed in the sport, that it all could be traced back to his time at Army (when his friendship with Bob Knight began) and no doubt a time in his life when he saw the way a proper leadership structure can make all of the difference in the world.  Parcells knew that a team had to become a team to figure out a way to navigate through the troubled waters that a football season would present.  There will be losses, and mistakes, and injuries, and yes, occasionally a very serious off-the-field matter that would test the continuity and resolve of every member of the organization.  If they were all together and on the same agenda, they could get through it.

But, if they were on 5 different pages (See: the 2008 Cowboys) then they would take something great and turn it into something you take to the curb so that the garbage man will take it away when he makes his rounds.

In many ways, so much of Parcells' message on Saturday night in Canton was built around unity, leadership, and team.  I think perhaps the one that hit home the most was a story he told near the end of his speech about a moment he had with Giants' owner Wellington Mara moments after Parcells was first named the head coach decades ago.  Mara walked him over to a plaque on the wall in the Giants' locker-room and showed him the following inscription.

"Losers assemble in little groups and complain.  Winners assemble as a team and find ways to win." - Emlen Tunnell

There are certainly fun little sayings that we all email to each-other and then forget about, but there are times where a quote seems to properly capture what a person is all about.  In this case, I feel that Parcells lived this quote as a coach and installed it on the hard drive of any player who would listen.  I think the single most important trait of a football team that achieves greatness can be found on that plaque.  And that is why I have hope for the Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys.

We don't know what goes on behind closed doors as fans or media.  We can guess and piece together anecdotal evidence of things operating smoothly or not.  But, it was clear to me that when Parcells left the Cowboys, there was a real climate change in the room.

Now, many players enjoyed the heck out of this change. To them, the freedom of not being afraid that the principal was stalking the hallways was labeled as "treats us like men" as they described Wade Phillips to the media.  They were tired of being treated like schoolboys and being told how to behave and to cut that hair and to get back in line.

But, now, we are allowed to conduct ourselves as we please and say what we want.  We can wear our uniform as we wish and workout back home if we want and even take a little vacation during the bye week (Cabo!).  Isn't it great that we are allowed to make our own decisions?  Why did Parcells treat us like we were in high school?

Eventually, having a head coach who did not demand respect, but instead asked politely for it began to cause alternate agendas.  It even started on the coaching staff where assistants, hired before Phillips in some cases, would not fully protect the authority of the head coach and at times either undermine him or stand down when someone else would.  The pyramid of authority and chain of command that was so thoroughly in place from 2003 to 2006 had all but disappeared when we heard of a legendary and divisive spat in the offense to wear Terrell Owens and company took on Jason Garrett and Tony Romo, even suggesting that Romo played favorites with his pal, Jason Witten, at the expense of getting Owens and his fellow receivers the ball.

By the way, this sort of thing springs up anywhere football is played.  The difference between a Parcells staff and a Jerry Jones staff is that Parcells staff would have weeded that out of the room about a nanosecond after it presented itself.  Instead, with players unhappy, the coaching staff fractured, leading the team to collapse, and ultimately they quit on several occasions in that '08 season and I look back and wonder how that would have been handled differently if they simply assembled as a team and found a way.

Instead, we got "Keepin' It Real Thursdays" in the next few years where receivers would get in their positional meetings and speak their minds about how they aren't being used properly.  Good gracious.  They actually gave those who thought they knew more than the head coach or offensive coordinator a forum to speak?  I doubt this happened much at West Point.

Losers assemble in little groups and complain. 

I don't know what kind of coach Ray Sherman is these days (WR Coach in St Louis), but when he was in Dallas, he helped create an environment that harbored complaining and separate agendas rather than uniting behind his superior.  He was painted as a player's coach, which is something that sounds good in print but seldom plays well when a head coach loses his team because his assistants are trying to set themselves up for their job promotion.

It is possible that Sherman thought he could design an offense better than Jason Garrett.  And maybe he was right, but as it was happening, the offense would undermine Romo to their sources and we are still trying to pick up the pieces of Romo's assassinated character despite his solid play throughout his career.  The factions created on this team when Phillips had no idea how to lead as a head coach were severe and difficult to heal.

But, I believe Jason Garrett is making big progress in this department.

Now, again, we don't know exactly what goes on behind closed doors, but one thing I have seen in the last 3 seasons is a feeling that the Jason Garrett Cowboys swing closer to the Parcells' days than the Phillips days with regards to structure, unity, and weeding out divisive forces that tend to cause issues in the name of personal agendas.  Now, certainly, Rob Ryan's bravado did not help Garrett's unified message and it is clear that Jerry Jones does not realize that it all starts with making sure the assistants that work here are working with loyalty to the head coach as their top priority.

But, expecting Jerry Jones to understand what Tunnell was saying is sadly, an unreasonable goal.

Does Garrett understand it, and more importantly desire that?  I believe he absolutely does.

Hopefully, you had a chance to see him address the team from a few weeks back (if not, watch it here) or you had the opportunity to hear him on our radio show on Wednesday (if not, the audio is here).  In both cases, you can see him without his normal "press conference mode" setting on that frustrates so many.

He is a football man from a football family.  His dad was a football coach when Jason was born.  He understands what loyalty and unity can do to maximize a team's performance.  He knows when adversity hits, it can go two ways and a team that is unified has a better chance not to implode under its own pressure.

Now, unlike Bill Parcells, Garrett did not name his entire staff, nor does he have the credibility of winning Super Bowls that allowed the old coach to act in any sort of Darth Vader way he wanted and get away with it.  He still has a boss that doesn't seem to acknowledge that a military chain of command that ends with the head coach is a proven way to win in this league, rather than the meddling owner model that seems to usually end in unintentional comedy.

But, I believe the program is being built. I loved what I saw from the head coach in 2012 when great adversity hit the team and they played some of their most inspired ball as they were going through the Josh Brent/Jerry Brown tragedy.  They also never quit when injury after injury hurt the team's quality, rather we started to see the "next man up" mentality that is adapted by the good teams in the NFL.

Parcells mentioned in his Hall of Fame speech that on several occasions, his career almost ended before it started because of a losing streak.  He thought he was one loss from being fired and it took a great escape or we would never know his story or his life lessons.

Now, many of you will read this and remind me that Parcells didn't set the world on fire in Dallas, and that Wade actually was the coach to get an elusive playoff win - not the Big Tuna.  And that would be true, and short sighted.

The best leaders on today's Dallas Cowboys were all trained as young players by Parcells back in their formative years.  Romo, Witten, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Miles Austin all were Parcells' guys with his memories and quotes in their heads.  Unfortunately, the legacy that Wade left is never talked about and Wade's guys are pretty much all gone already.

Nobody will make the case that Garrett has it all figured out.  He makes mistakes and has issues like any coach in the league.  He also is at a place in his career where it can go either way.  He is 21-19 and if he doesn't hit the gas soon, Jerry will get the itch again to find his next headline grabbing hire.

But those traits that made Parcells great are traits that Garrett values.  He preaches and promotes unity and coming together as a team and leaving your personal gripes in the trash.  And for these reasons - among others (including his ability to assemble young promising talent), I believe he still has a real chance to be considered a strong head coach in the next 24-36 months.

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Live From Oxnard: The 17 Pre-Garrett Cowboys

It isn't too difficult to pick through the public speeches of Jason Garrett to see the items that he deems worthy of pounding home on his 2013 campaign trail.

If you listen to a few of them, you do pick up on the words that are most often used, including "passion", "energy", and of course, one that seems to have gone missing early in camp '13, "process".  Not sure if he has retired the term, "process", but at least for now, it has been taken out of the rotation.

However, this spring and summer, he has reflected quite a few times about how the program is being built with a certain type of player and a certain type of roster.  During these quick moments of reflection, he generally mentions a number of "17 players" that were here when he coached his 1st game on November 14, 2010 at the New Meadowlands Stadium against the New York (Football) Giants.

You may or may not remember this chart we made at the end of last season on "How the Cowboys were built", but either way, here it is with the different colors designating the different coaching regimes.  Top Silver is Garrett, Blue is Phillips, Bottom Silver is Parcells.

YEAR	DRAFT PICKS	FREE AGENTS	UNDRAFTED FAs
2012	Claiborne, Crawford, Wilber, Johnson, Hanna, Coale, McSurdy	Livings, Bernardeau, Orton, Vickers, Carr, Sims, Moore	Beasley, Leary, Dunbar, Bass
2011	Smith, Carter, Murray, Arkin, Harris		Kowalski, Tanner, Callaway, Albright, Jones, Bailey
2010	Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore		P Costa, J Parnell, B Church, D McCray
2009
2008	Orlando Scandrick
2007	Anthony Spencer, Doug Free
2006	Jason Hatcher		Miles Austin
2005	DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff	LP Ladocuer
2004
2003	Jason Witten		Tony Romo

We will wait until the 2013 additions have made the team to redo this chart with the appropriate additions and subtractions, but for now, that gives you a pretty good idea of the soft underbelly that 2008 and 2009 presented the 2013 roster.

For one thing, the drafts (as has been reported on numerous occasions here and everywhere) certainly left the team in dire straits.  But, let's not underestimate that the undrafted rookie free agency bins and the free agency signings were non-existent there, too.  They literally added no players who could last for almost 24 months straight.  What was everyone doing in the personnel department during 2008 and 2009?  Actually, the truth might be that so many assets were lost in the Roy Williams trade that they didn't have much they could do.  Still....

As you can see, 2010 is looking to be a very plentiful season that should help this team recover.  Everyone can see that Dez Bryant and Sean Lee both have a chance to be cornerstones here for the balance of their careers like the greats Witten and Ware, perhaps, but don't lose sight of the others added during that season:  Barry Church, Jermey Parnell, Phil Costa, and Danny McCray all were undrafted free agents and Parnell was a practice squad signing from New Orleans.  All are players that have significant roles here today of either starters, depth, or special teams contributors.  Same for Sean Lissemore who was found in the 7th round that year.  We won't mention again the football ramifications of losing a young bull like Josh Brent, but safe to say that he would likely have played 500 snaps this season if he hadn't made another horrendous life decision last December.

Here is the game-book front page from Garrett Game #1 and you may click on it to see the entire roster from that game when Garrett took over the 1-7 2010 Cowboys:

And now I further altered it with blue accents with just the "Pre Garrett 17" Cowboys:

Given that this was less than 3 full seasons ago, it does shed light on how quickly things change in the NFL.  Only 3 offensive and 3 defensive starters remain from the team that took the field that day.

Today's rosters are largely built through the draft as there are no free agents from other NFL teams on this roster from before 2012 except for the Cowboys long snapper, LP Ladouceur.

Jerry Jones and Garrett have quickly turned this thing over.  We think that the NFL is a great departure from college football and the mentality that every season is a new team that we all expect in the college ranks.  But, perhaps this chart shows us differently.

Sure, there are a few players who can stay a decade.  But, overall, when you have a guy like Orlando Scandrick that is now one of your 10 longest-tenured Cowboys, you can see that you better be careful when you a buy a jersey of a young player.  There is very little evidence that they are promised to see their 5 year anniversary in a Cowboys uniform.  I imagine there are plenty of Felix Jones jerseys available on EBay these days.

So those are your 17 Cowboys who were here when Garrett took the job promotion.  I figure you can dazzle those in the next cubicle over with guys like Barry Church and Danny McCray.  Even Parnell was added a month before the change was made at head coach.  And all of those names are now veterans for the young guys behind them.

Hard to believe and yet it is the reality of the NFL.

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And Off We Go To Oxnard

The 2013 NFL season represents the 18th year since Super Bowl 30 for the Dallas Cowboys.  To this point, 17 seasons have been played since they won their 5th Super Bowl, and 281 games have been played during that stretch (regular and post season).

There have been some good times and some good teams, but given the unreasonably high bar that Cowboys' teams and eras of the past have set, the final results of each of those 17 seasons have left their vast fan-base with feelings of disappointment.  They have become accustomed to better.  It is not a matter of deserving anything, because that is not how sports work.  But, if you would have told the millions of Cowboys fans on that glorious night in Tempe, Arizona, when Jerry Jones held a Lombardi Trophy that did not require Jimmy Johnson's direct assistance, that the next 17 years would include nothing but "break-even" football, it would likely not be believed.

But, here they are.  Starting season 18 since their last Super Bowl and with those 281 games behind them, we look at the results to check that win total:

140-141.

To be fair, if you deduct the playoff games (2-7), the record shifts to 138-134 through 17 seasons.  That, of course, comes out to an average record of 8.1 wins and 7.9 losses per season year after year.

Since 2006, the year Tony Romo became their "QB1", they have a 65-51 mark (64-48 regular season) which equates to a average record of 9.1 and 6.9, and does account for one of those 2 playoff wins since Super Bowl 30 (the other being the wildcard round win against the Vikings in 1996).

Jason Garrett took over as coach of the Cowboys at midseason of 2010.  Since that time, he has coached the Cowboys in 40 games, compiling a record of 21-19.  He has not been to the playoffs to this point in his coaching tenure, which stands as a large impediment to any progress he has made in solidifying a roster and building a program that might be heading in the right direction.

Results matter and the results for Jerry Jones, Tony Romo, and Jason Garrett have all been right around 8-8.

And so, with 2011 and 2012 both being 8-8 seasons, the Cowboys start another training camp with optimism in their words and a fresh start in their minds.  They will talk about winning football and ideas on how this particular season will be different from the others.  They will, Jerry, especially, even mention the Super Bowl as the final destination and goal and talk about a window being open and trying to keep it from closing.

These are the things we do as we go to training camp with the Cowboys year after year.  And in 2013, where optimism has been beaten down by the teams that have come before them, you actually can sense a fan base that has morphed into numb and at times, hopeless about the present condition evolving into that of a perennial contender.

And, the more I look at this team, the more I do wonder if this will be one of those years where a team does play at a level that even surprises their own fan base.  I think this 2013 version can be pretty good, but like its predecessors, the margin for error is not going to be very big.

Yes, they have some very good talent at most starting positions.  Yes, they play in a division with teams that do not seem like impossible obstacles in their path.  Yes, they do seem to have new scheme ideas and strategies that work on paper.  And yes, they have a collection of veterans that are tired of 8-8.

But, of course, as we have seen in the past, injuries always hit and they don't try to be considerate of positions where you can afford the loss.  Even with a reasonably manageable schedule, this team has always found it tough to navigate through long stretches without a stumble.  New schemes are never as easy to figure out as they appear on paper during June and July.  And when you are 8-8, you understand that 2 plays - last year a Dez Bryant finger tip and a Dan Bailey kick in Baltimore from being 10-6.  Of course, as the wins at New York, versus Cleveland, and at Cincinnati showed us, they won some games by the skin of their teeth, too, and weren't miles from 6-10, either.

I absolutely look forward to ever year's trip to camp, but the experience of 15 Cowboys' camps in a row for me has taught me to measure bold claims and perfect optimism with a fair amount of realism and understanding that guys in these sports are wired a certain way to always look at things with the best case scenarios in mind.  They know that bad things are ahead, but they have no choice but to push forward with a brave face in July and August.  It is a new season.  New results are in their grasp if they make the right decisions along the way.

Added cast members will now coordinate a new defensive look.  Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli have more knowledge than any 1-2 defensive coaching combo could possibly provide.  They will push this team to create turnovers and negative plays and become a disruptive and physical defense like their other stops in Tampa Bay and Chicago.

On offense, the discussion of play-calling and a more determined emphasis on being physical and running the ball behind a powerful offensive line will be hashed out plenty in the next few weeks.  The Cowboys poured almost all of their major draft resources into plugging offensive holes.  And, it is exciting to see what they have done as Travis Frederick, Gavin Escobar, Terrance Williams, and Joseph Randle all bring tons of ability and youth to the table that should make the offense run more smoothly and effectively.

Over the next few weeks, we will tackle as many salient topics and questions as possible.  We will review 2012 with a microscope and try to sort through what applies to 2013.  We begin another journey with this team as they try once again to work their way up that hill.

They have never been a bottom feeder (well, Dave Campo's era might have been), but they have also ceased to be a heavyweight over these last 17 seasons.  They have just been stuck in the middle, without ever moving too far up or down the standings.  Right in the mix for the final playoff spots until the end, but recently, just on the outside looking in.

It is an amazingly tough league.  32 teams all hit camp with optimism about how they can figure out how to be one of the 12 teams that will play in the tournament in January.  History tells us that each season, half of the playoff field changes to new teams.

Can the Cowboys be there in that group of new teams?  Absolutely.

But, it will require them answering many of their questions with positive answers.

It all starts today, as they board their planes to California.  1st Practice is Sunday at 4pm Pacific time.

From there, nobody knows what lies ahead.  But, those of us who love the sport cannot wait to begin to find out.

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Cowboys By The Numbers: Offense

Over the next several weeks, I want to do what I attempt to do every summer, which is to take a good look back at the previous season.  There are enough people on the interweb speculating about what could happen in 2013 and what they learned from OTA's.  That is great sometimes, and I enjoy their work.  But, I usually have enough time for that at Training Camp and with the preseason games - especially this year with an elongated camp and an additional preseason game.

So, the bridge from OTA's until Oxnard is best filled by examining the previous season both from a macro view and a micro view.

First, the macro view.  The NFL keeps a few hundred different team statistics which are sorted from top to bottom for all 32 teams.  They are separated and averaged both by "All 32" and then by "playoff teams".  The second ranking is a good way to compare yourself to the 12 teams that made the NFL postseason.

So, today, I thought we could examine the offensive statistics from these files and pick out the best and worst stats from the Cowboys offense - relative to the rest of the league and to the playoff field.  Then, next time, we will give the same treatment to the Cowboys defense.

Here we go:

5 Great Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

1st Down Efficiency:  Rated 2nd in NFL with 53.6% Success Rate.  NFL Average was 47.3% and Playoff Teams averaged 48.6%

3 and Out Drives:  3rd best in NFL with 17.2%.  NFL Average = 22.7%, Playoff Average = 20.6%

3rd Down Conversions:  43.9% was 5th in NFL.  NFL Average = 38.2%, Playoff Average = 40.2%

Net Passing Yards Per Game:  295.6 per game, ranked 3rd.  NFL Average = 231.3, Playoff Average = 237.1

1st Down Passing (4 yards or more):  2nd in NFL, 59.8%.  NFL = 50.9%, Playoffs = 53.2%


This group is certainly propped up with the fantastic accumulation of numbers that were the Cowboys calling card in the latter part of the season where they abandoned all hopes of balance and power and simply let their weapons do their work.  This is where Dez Bryant emerged as a dominant player and where Tony Romo unleashed his stable of weapons that will only improve this season.  Net passing yards are way above where they need to be (and are certainly not indicative of winning football), and 1st down efficiency combined with 3rd down conversions are all where you want to be.

3rd Down conversions don't say everything, but when the top teams are all playoff teams: New England, Atlanta, Denver and the bottom 3 teams are Jacksonville, Arizona, and Cleveland - you can at least see that there is some indicator of who has elite QBs and who doesn't by how 3rd Down goes.  So, it is nice to sit at #5 in that stat.


5 Good/Average Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

Yards Per Play:  5.71, 11th in NFL.  NFL Average = 5.41, Playoff Teams Average = 5.62

Times Sacked:  36, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 37, Playoff Teams = 35

Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 61, 16th in NFL.  NFL = 60, Playoffs = 64

Offensive Points Scored:  348, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 333, Playoff Teams = 385

Time of Possession:  30:33 for 13th in NFL.  NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 30:37

The one that jumps out at you here is the issue we always discuss - 15th in points scored for all those big yardage stats above.  That is one characteristic of the Jason Garrett offense that seems to be consistent most years.  This team under performs on the scoreboard for all of the stats they put up.  This is why hearing that they have high yardage rankings doesn't mean much to people that suggest they can move the ball between the 20s all day long.  It is also interesting to see that they are only league average in explosive plays.  You would think that with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, this number should be way higher.  The Saints led the league with 77 and that is the neighborhood that you want to reside in soon with all of the weapons.


5 Poor Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

10 Play Drives:  Cowboys had 21, 32nd best in NFL.  NFL Average = 27, Playoff Teams 29

Giveaways:  29, which ranked 25th.  NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 19

Penalties Called:  117, ranked 30th.  NFL Average = 100, Playoff Teams Average = 100

Rush Plays Called:  33.8%, 31st.  NFL Average = 42.3%, Playoff teams = 45.2%

Yards Per Play in Red Zone:  2.43, 28th.  NFL Average = 2.86, Playoff Teams = 2.92


Ah, the killers.  The stats that must be focused on.  And you can argue that they have all been addressed with personnel changes and coaching initiatives in this offseason.  Their drives were too short, too penalized, too many turnovers, no runs, and inefficient in the red zone.

How many of these stats are connected?  You have to pass to move the ball, you can't hold linebackers or safeties with play action, therefore you are throwing into more coverage - more giveaways.

Also, when the field gets shorter, the gaps in the secondary get smaller, and it gets harder to move the ball.  And, of course, you cannot commit 17 more penalties a season than the field.  That is simply a self-inflicted wound that must be cleaned up.

Next time, we look at these same numbers from the defensive point of view.

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Bill Callahan Is Now Calling The Plays - And Yes, It Matters

The delivery of the news is "uniquely Jerry" where communication skills seem forever stuck in reverse, and complete with comedy ensuing.  Think about the true joy of being a principle member (Say, Bill Callahan or Jason Garrett) of a rather significant news story and surrounded by the leering press and to be asked about questions where you are not sure whether or not your own boss has spilled the beans without warning moments ago.  You are tip-toeing through a mine field and are careful not to step on the toes of colleagues who have been demoted or promoted and wish to handle things with honesty (assuming that is how you naturally roll), but realize you have to amend your normal sensibilities to comply with the ol' "Way Things Are At Valley Ranch as Long As Jerry Is Running The Show."

It surely should also be understood to all involved that Jason Garrett, the mostly-nuetered head coach of this operation, knew what he was getting into many years ago when he elected to stay in this situation out of some loyalty to either Jerry Jones, the Cowboys brand, or both, rather than to start with a clean slate in either Baltimore or Atlanta.  He was made the highest-paid assistant coach in the league and the head coach-in-waiting to stay in Dallas and work his magic further.  But, with that would come this incredibly odd working situation that he must navigate through, despite looking rather helpless and powerless when it comes to many basic decisions that are often given to a head coach.  For all we know, it is possible that Garrett knew this needed to happen and blessed it, but the fact that he still argues for keeping the discussion in-house, when his boss has already decided to make sure the microphones knew the information, further reduces any perception of power that Garrett may hold.

But, let's not bury the lead here.  Yes, the way information is made public is both frustrating and unconventional, but it is the information itself that truly matters.  If we weren't sure before yesterday who was the de facto head coach, then we haven't been paying attention.

The story itself is that after 6 years of interrupted control of the Cowboys offense, we are getting that fresh set of eyes that I petitioned for back in December and January:

Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense.  I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has.  You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time. 

6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them.  This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit. 

This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has.  In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.  Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received.  The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB.  When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything.  The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything.  If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do.  Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football.  But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.

Again, for those who are new to my thoughts on how offense works, a team doesn't run the ball because running is the only way to win (Emmitt getting 20 carries is usually the result of a Cowboys winning game-plan, not the root of it), it threatens to run the ball to make passing easier and blitzing harder.  A balanced offense is the most fundamentally efficient way for coaches to put the playmakers in advantageous positions on the field, rather than draped with coverage.  And if your playmakers are the beneficiaries of uncertainty in the defense of what is coming on this next play, then everyone wins.

If Garrett hasn't been able to exploit that, and if "12 Personnel" is the base offense, then perhaps there isn't a true fit with Garrett and the principles that are the whole point behind multiple tight ends to begin with.  12 Personnel, which we will elaborate on further very soon, is a grouping that is trying to make you pick your poison.  If you wish to keep base defense on the field, then 12 shreds you with mismatches of linebackers trying to run with tight ends.  If you switch to nickel or dime, then 12 destroys you with a running game that forces defensive backs to deal with much bigger run blockers.  You cannot "guess" correctly, because often 12 is based on how you decide to defend it with your personnel on defense.  There is almost no other grouping like this, as "11" is always going to draw nickel defense and "21" is always going to draw base (because teams don't mind linebackers on a true fullback).  But, "12" is that perfect combo - provided you have the tight ends to do it - where there is no right answer for the defense.

We do know that Bill Callahan has traditionally valued power running in his previous stops.  Oakland, in particular was a team that would balance things up pretty well, and sometimes err on the side of running too much.  However, we do wonder how all of this info balances with the narrative that Jerry has voiced for months now, that Tony Romo might be designing much of this offense, anyway.  So, will Callahan have the power to bully the gameplan to his liking? or is it Romo? or is it Garrett? or....

Anyway, back to the thoughts in January:

I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes.  I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.  

So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it.  I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line.  I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.  

Change is good sometimes in the NFL.  Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on.  I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off.  And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.  

I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards. 

I am fine with trying something new. 

Many people are going to be citing statistics about 2012 that are just flat-out misleading.  Context means everything when you work with numbers, and since it is too complicated and time-consuming to apply context, most people will just google "total offense" for a year and assume all details cancel each-other out over a season.

But, in another study we did back in February that can be read here, we showed how numbers are empty when you are gaining them down 28-3:

I will concede that it is difficult to define "garbage time" sometimes.  Was it garbage time when the Cowboys were down 23-0 to the Giants at halftime?  Or, 28-3 to the Redskins at the half on Thanksgiving?  And if so, didn't the Cowboys almost win the Giants game and at least make the Redskins sweat a bit? 

I would say that arguing this, though, is missing the point of trying to identify the Cowboys offensive ability in 2012.

My point, would be this:  In 2012, the Cowboys' would spend all week designing a game plan that they thought would best work against their opponents.  Then, at game-time, they would find that their game plan was completely ineffective and scrap it.  This would happen at halftime sometimes, 3rd Quarter other times, and even sometimes well before halftime.  When they would scrap their game plan (a balanced attack with multiple personnel groupings and formations) and go exclusively to a 2-minute drill offense that was 100% shotgun and 100% 11 personnel, they would then find the ability to get yards and ultimately, points.  

The score in the game here is interesting, but not the trigger.  The trigger is that moment when Garrett and/or Romo says to the other, "this isn't working.  Let's do what we know works." 

And that happened over and over and over in 2012.  Especially at home.  The following is a look at the amount of time the Cowboys had the ball with the lead in their 8 home games.  The information is accurate and impossible to believe.

Opponent	Time with the lead
Tampa Bay	17:58
Chicago	0:00
New York	1:08
Cleveland	1:16
Washington	3:46
Philadelphia	1:52
Pittsburgh	10:36
New Orleans	0:00
Total	36:36

That is right.  36 minutes and 36 seconds the entire year.  This is a team that fell behind early almost every single home game.  Why?  Because their game-plan week after week was not working. 

Why?  I could offer 100 ideas.  But, the point is, they weren't working.  And, from there, when Romo and Garrett would take it and throw it in the trash, that is when the Cowboys were able to turn these games into competitive contests by going back to Shotgun-11 personnel.  Then, and only then, was this offense able to get anything done.  

Under center?  Rushing the ball?  Declaring run and getting a tough yard?  Under center and run play action and hit one over the top?  In all of these scenarios, 2012 was about as bad a year as Garrett has on record.

All this is being said without referencing the number of times in the 40 games as head coach where the Cowboys seemed to butcher a head coach decision.  Those issues with clock management, or challenge calls, or other high-leverage moments that seemed to add to Garrett's responsibilities in such a way where it all appeared to be too much for one guy to deal with.

Now, hypothetically, even though Jerry has told us all the reasons why Garrett should be calling plays in the past, this should allow further brain power and fresh perspective on what is usually 2 jobs that require every waking hour for 2 different smart football men.

Of course, the other, more cynical view is that now with 3 different former head coaches on the staff in Callahan, Rod Marinelli, and Derek Dooley (at the college level), along with Monte Kiffin, that the Cowboys are well equipped to replace Garrett in-season if they so choose, which is reminiscent of how he took over the duties at midseason in 2010 when Wade Phillips met a similar fate.

I was quite confused as to why this news item was so difficult to release, but in the end, I think it could be a great new way for the Cowboys offense to function.

Either way, I think 6 years is enough information to conclude that it would be difficult to argue that Garrett should have retained his authority in the offense.  A change has been long overdue.

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How The Cowboys Were Built

There was a little communication this week between the brass of the Dallas Cowboys and the beat writers who gather for every word, and Clarence Hill of the Fort Worth Star Telegram found something worth discussing in his conversation with Jason Garrett on Wednesday from the NFL Owners Meetings in Arizona.  

Let's take a look at what he offered:

As he prepares for his third draft class, Garrett says his program is firmly in place with his type of guys and 2013 is a big year to take the next step. 

"Absolutely, that’s why this draft is so critical," Garrett said Wednesday at the NFL owners meetings. "You want to be able to continue to add to the culture we’ve developed the last couple years, and a lot of the culture has to do with who you are as a head coach, who your staff is and what they represent. A lot of it has to do with the people you bring in, the players you bring in, and what they’re all about. We’ve tried to do a really good job of that. We feel good about how we’ve drafted, how we’ve kind of structured our football team, and the kinds of people we’re bringing in.” 

Only 16 players, including just seven starters, are left on the roster from the team that Garrett took over in 2010. 

"I think we’ve done a good job over the last couple years, like we talked earlier, transitioning our roster from a lot of older players to some younger players, still keep ourselves in competitive situations at the end of the year, having a chance to compete for the division," Garrett said. "We brought in some young players who can be the cornerstones for us going forward to add to the Tony Romos, the DeMarcus Wares, the Jason Ratliffs, Jason Wittens, those guys who have been big, significant players for us in the past. Now you think about Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, DeMarco Murray, all those guys. 

“The identity we’ve established together gives us a chance going forward."

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/03/20/4717338/from-top-to-bottom-garrett-says.html#storylink=cpy

This is a topic worth visiting about that I am happy the coach brought up.

Listed below is a chart that will show you with relative clarity how the Cowboys were built and you will see that the majority of the roster has been put in place since Jason Garrett took over the team in November of 2010.  Even though he has had just 2 drafts, 29 of the 47 players who have made this roster can be traced back to Garrett.

Hill writes that only 16 remain - I count 18 - but, the point is the same.  This is mostly Garrett's team from a quantity standpoint.  The question continues whether or not it can be said that from a quality standpoint.  Are the 29 names listed in grey in 2011 and 2012 players that are carrying most of the weight on this team?  Or, do we still look at 2003-2006 as containing most of the quality back when Bill Parcells roamed the halls of Valley Ranch?

And, of course, listen in blue from 2007-2010, the Wade Phillips/Jerry Jones war-room that we would all like to forget about for the most part - save that 2010 when Dez Bryant and Sean Lee salvaged an entire era with their acquisitions.

Check out the chart below:

YEAR	DRAFT PICKS	FREE AGENTS	UNDRAFTED FAs
2012	Claiborne, Crawford, Wilber, Johnson, Hanna, Coale, McSurdy	Livings, Bernardeau, Orton, Vickers, Carr, Sims, Moore	Beasley, Leary, Dunbar, Bass
2011	Smith, Carter, Murray, Arkin, Harris		Kowalski, Tanner, Callaway, Albright, Jones, Bailey
2010	Dez Bryant, Sean Lee, Sean Lissemore, Josh Brent		P Costa, J Parnell, B Church, D McCray
2009
2008	Orlando Scandrick
2007	Anthony Spencer, Doug Free
2006	Jason Hatcher		Miles Austin
2005	DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff	LP Ladocuer
2004
2003	Jason Witten		Tony Romo

Currently, there are way more names on their active roster than 47, but I only list the names who have proven they have made a roster at some point here.  Most of these players have at least worn a jersey for one game or in Ron Leary's case been basically guaranteed a roster spot with his contract.

We should also note that there are a few more players lingering out there that could be re-signed (Felix Jones) that would help prop up 2008 and he would still be considered a continuous service Cowboy.  But, I am not holding my breath that he is in their plans.

It is also interesting to see what a small effect that free agency has had on this team.  They do have the reputation of not "growing through the draft", but as you can clearly see, this team is built almost 100% through the draft - and undrafted free agents signed every April - except for the players they have brought in during 2012.

This team - for better or for worse - is home grown for the most part.  They are primarily players who have never played for another team and have been here long term.  In fact, as you look at it, the most disconcerting element is the fingerprint that Parcells still leaves 7 seasons after he has left.  Only now, after the 2011 and 2012 seasons of Bryant and Lee can we say that Parcells didn't put the entire "best 5" Cowboys on this roster.

Garrett has tried carefully to find the "right kind of player" who understands all of those character traits that he believes are part of building a team properly.  He has pushed for them to target players who were captains on their college teams or have held other leadership positions.  And the jury is obviously out on whether this has dramatically changed the fabric of the organization.

Why?  Because, in the end, it comes down to whether they are able to win games, divisions, playoff games, and hopefully, a Super Bowl.  You can have the best leaders in the NFL, but they better be able to block and tackle on their way to leading.  And that has been the rub here.

But, if we can understand that it is tough to turn a program around in the blink of an eye, we must at least consider the fact that there is a bigger picture to consider here.  Are we seeing slow growth and youth development going on underneath the surface of conversations of play-calling and Romo's future?  Is there something being built as Garrett references?

One would hope so.  Garrett has a hand in what is going on and a plan for how to get there.  Of course, so has - we hope - every coach who has ever taken over a team at the professional level in any sport.

The trick is to hang around long enough to see it through.  And that is the question for any owner running any team.  To figure out if their coach is on to something awesome that requires 5 years or if they are just wasting resources for this guy to figure it all out.  Is this Bill Belichick in Cleveland?  Jerry admits he should have given Chan Gailey longer to sort through a very complicated situation when he took over the 1998 Cowboys.  Or is this Dave Campo or Wade Phillips?  Because some coaches are miscast as architects who have a global vision.  You can wait 15 years and it might only be getting worse.

I think most people agree that tangible results need to happen this year for Garrett to feel safe about coaching in 2014 here.  There is plenty of pressure and not a ton of patience for this upcoming season and it all starts with getting this draft right.

And perhaps that will be his calling card.  Looking at the chart, it seems that if anything can be considered a clear upgrade since Garrett's arrival, it seems that potentially, the process in the draft room has clearly exceeded his predecessor.  Is that more of a praise of Garrett/Jones or underscoring the poor job done by Jones/Wade?  Fair question.  And as we look at Garrett's challenges, is one of them that is not discussed enough trying to pull this thing out of the personnel ditch that Wade/Jerry had put them in?

If DeMarco Murray, Bruce Carter, Dwayne Harris continue to develop, Tyron Smith and Mo Claiborne continue on their road to being long-term building blocks, and we see much of the 2012 draft class emerge, maybe this slow-build technique will have long-term results.

The question is whether Garrett will be here to enjoy it or whether the next guy will see that maybe the cupboard is not that bare.

Regardless, I thought it might help to see just when and how everyone on the roster has arrived.  This didn't happen overnight and the fix won't happen quickly either.

But, Garrett now feels like his team is in place.  Let's see what that means on the field in 2013.

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How the Offense All Fits Together

Today is one of those blogs where many who have played football for any length of time might not learn anything they haven't heard in high school or college from their coaches in the film room. But, for those of us who have little or no actual playing experience, it is a topic worth discussing during the offseason to try and explain why coaching and play-calling is a very delicate dance that must be performed with circumstances each Sunday.

Since 2008, on my personal blog, I have been logging every play-call, down and distance, and personnel grouping from every snap of every game. During this time, with well over 4,500 play calls, we have a really interesting profile of how Jason Garrett runs his offense. There have been many variations and personnel situations that have caused him to morph his philosophy as the offensive coordinator and then the head coach, but it is all sitting there in the data base and logged for analyzation.

We have the data available to see what the Cowboys are good at offensively, bad at offensively, and a third category that is inconsistent enough to say that we just don't know what the performance is going to be sometimes.

But, what is interesting to me is that when you examine this data, or even just as you keep up with our weekly "Decoding Garrett" studies that are linked here if you are so inclined to kill off the rest of your day, we come up with many reasons why the offense is not as good as the other heavyweights in the NFL. Personnel-wise, when you stack up the Cowboys offensive skill position personnel with those teams that win Super Bowls or consistently play deep into January (Saints, Patriots, Packers, Giants, Colts), you feel pretty good, usually.

So, why, then, do the results suggest that the Cowboys are not a team that fits into January very often?

And the answer to that is different, depending on who you ask. I consume a lot of NFL programming on television and on the radio. I would be more than happy if the NFL was to the USA as soccer is to Europe. What that means is if the season went from August to May and there were really no other major sports, I would be fine with that. I love the NFL that much.

But, I don't love how the NFL is critically covered. I think we "dumb down" the conversations and simplify all issues to the most ridiculous standards. And therefore, nationally especially, when the conversation comes up about why the Cowboys don't win more in the post-season, invariably, the answer from people who either don't study the team or don't know how to study the team always arrives at 2 places: Tony Romo (The QB) and Jason Garrett (The Coach).

It would be one thing if it was just callers who would ignore data and 900 snaps to focus on 5-10 snaps that were poor, but it is not. It is a wide array of media and many on the set of NFL Network or ESPN which can certainly cause your average fan to take notice. Wow, if Jamie Dukes thinks this, and if he played in the league as long as he did, surely he is right. Meanwhile, when talking about him and his golf and his wife and baby, we must also roll highlights behind him of the Revis interception, the Bobby Carpenter interception, and the missed FG hold in Seattle in 2006

Because clearly, if you have a QB who throws 31 TDs and 10 Interceptions, has a QB Rating of 102.5, and has his best season of his career by almost all individual metrics - including the 2007 season when his team was 13-3 - we should all look at the QB as the reason the season went bad. Why? Because! It is easy and simple! Blame the most famous football player on the team who plays the position that we can all see easily. Never-mind the other positions. They are just there to keep him company. The defense? That doesn't matter either if you listen to the radio or watch the television. It is Romo. The Cowboys are never going to win with Romo. This is a critical year for Romo. Romo...Romo...Romo...Romo.

It is enough to make you try to avoid the noise. If they are not going to explain why the Cowboys function as they do without digging deeper than the very top, most simple layer, then why even bother? Nobody is saying that Tony Romo is perfect, or even elite all of the time, but to suggest that QB is holding this franchise back over the last 7 seasons is insane on almost every level. But, it is way easier to answer shortly and confidently that Romo is the problem. To explain a more complex disfunction in the organization is boring and laborious.

So, now, I am sure you are asking: "So, if it isn't what they say it is, what is the problem?" And if you read my works on a regular basis, this is going to be repetitive. But, here is the really abbreviated version.

The line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball have not been a strength of the team since the dynasty days of the 1990s. This decay during the Romo era has led to issues in the running game, pass protection, and play-calling. Our data seems to suggest that in 2011, just like 2008-2010, the Cowboys would enter games with a game-plan not to attack and to win, but to protect their under-manned offensive line - which is most certainly not a recipe for dominance.

Here is part of our study after the debacle in Arizona in early December:

the differences between the home and road game plans are so drastic and frankly, predictable, that one certainly has room to wonder if the Cowboys attempt to call two different game plans.

At home, they are aggressive and determined. Run and pass splits are nearly identical. They often make their opponents choose their poison and then serve it up on a platter. It may not always work, but they are adventurous and creative in the way they go about their business. They will try even trick plays, they will pass when you think run, they will pound the ball until you can stop it, and they have a swagger.

On the road, they are timid. They are easily chased off their objectives. They abandon the run early and often. They put everything on their QB and his ability to make lemonade out of lemons. They seem to call plays in an effort to prevent disasters rather than to attack. They send a message to the troops that they are not sure if they can score points, so they often don't.

And this pattern has been in place for quite a while. Nobody is saying they never bring their home personality on the road, because they do. And sometimes, their road personality shows up in Arlington, too. But, if you look at the large sample under the play-calling of Jason Garrett, it is clear that there is a split in objectives and intentions between home games and road games.

Let's look at some evidence.

The best way a play caller can send a message to his opponent is by calling plays on 1st Down. It establishes the tone and attitude of the offense and declares to the opponent what is planned for the day.

But, when the Cowboys have been at home this season, on 1st and 10, the Cowboys have run 177 plays. The splits for those 177 snaps to start a play sequence has been 98 runs and 79 passes. The 55%/45% split demonstrates proper balance for a balanced offense. On 1st Down, you run the ball more because on 3rd Down, you almost never run. But as a whole, 55% runs on 1st Down will mean that your overall balance will be intact.

Conversely, when the Cowboys have played their 6 games on the road, they have had 172 1st and 10 situations. The splits on 1st Down when they have been on the road has seen just 68 runs and 104 passes. This 39%/61% split on 1st and 10 sets the Cowboys up for days where they never get anything done on the ground and become a 1-dimensional team. We have even heard explanations about the opponent putting an eighth man in the box to encourage the Cowboys to start slinging the ball around the yard.

Those last several paragraphs are why people like me constantly beg Jerry Jones to properly address his offensive and defensive lines. Once you can protect and fortify your pass protection and run game, then you can actually get back to the objectives of football. To grind out a win by forcing your will on your opponent, rather than trying to keep Vince Wilfork or Jason Pierre Paul from injuring your QB. And, what would be so bad about having a few players on defense that put the fear of Randy White in the minds of your opponents?

Football is a game that is won up front. And it always has been. Despite the evolutions in the game, it still comes back to the line of scrimmage. Which is why I will always argue for David DeCastro or Fletcher Cox on draft day and I will always cringe when some talking head brings up the idea that Tony Romo is on the hot seat after putting up a 31/10 season.

Which brings us to a piece of video from the current series on the NFL Network, Top 100. It profiles and ranks players from 100 to 1, and gives us 10 hours of football content during the heart of the offseason. During Jason Witten's profile, he had a brief reference to this point that validates the issues in the New England game from last October:



Witten is talking to the receivers at the 2:45 mark of that video in Foxboro on the bench: "Listen, here's the game. Stops, seam stops, drags. That's what we have to do. If we can't hold up the protection, we have to get the ball out and do something with it."

What he was talking about were the extremely short routes that are a counter to your offensive line falling apart (again). They were reduced to 3 and 5 step drops in this game and many others because the line was getting destroyed. And when you don't have protection, you can't hold the ball (or run the ball). So you have to throw quick routes into tight confines (because the defense knows you can't protect and they are jumping the short routes, too).

So, we can talk Dez or DeMarco or Romo all we want. It is fun to do and they are important pieces. But, you can see, that the game plan is different when the Cowboys know they are outclassed at the line of scrimmage. We don't see the "Jason Garrett Offense". Instead, we see "the offense that they think they can run without getting Romo killed" offense. If you can't block Vince Wilfork and friends - or the Giants in New York or the Eagles in Philadelphia - then you cannot get your run game going. You also seldom can throw the ball deep. And on and on it goes.

Before long, you are getting mad at Romo and Garrett for play calling and not putting points on the board. And in both cases, they are partly to blame. But, the real blame goes to the fact that even when everyone is healthy, in 2011, the offensive line was nowhere near the level of a contender. Nowhere near, in fact. And you cannot look at sacks allowed to validate this fact. Because, the Cowboys were avoiding sacks by not calling plays where there was any chance of sacks. But, that was limiting their offense in these key "showdown" games to 20% of their playbook. Vanilla, quick hitting passes and shotgun draws. It is easy to defend and difficult to put points on the board. And we really shouldn't blame the players on that offensive line, but rather the architects of the roster who put them in that position that they were not ready for. The decision makers who shape the roster are the ultimate stop for the credit or blame of any franchise.

We hope that in 2012, the problems have been fixed, but we will definitely have to see that interior hold up against live action before we are willing to go out on that limb.

But, until that time, we will continue to hear people tell us that Romo is just not a great leader and needs to be more clutch from those that shape opinions.

Or, we can watch baseball.

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The Morning After: Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13 (7-5)

Yesterday, the Cowboys lost a game they really could not afford to lose. They have been threatening to do this for the last 3 games, and finally their tempting of fate came due and they lost a game that they were heavily favored to win and one that could prove extremely costly when they attempt to enter the playoffs and avoid the most difficult road possible.

They lost a game that now takes them out of the driver's seat and makes all of the games in December just as stressful and vital as they could possibly be, despite much of the NFC trying to do the Cowboys every favor.

And one of the reasons for this defeat - not the only reason by a long-shot - was the way their coach seemed to lose the plot a bit down the stretch in the final moments of the contest.

Jason Garrett and his offense had just converted a very difficult 3rd and 11 when Tony Romo made yet another late-game play on a throw to Dez Bryant and set the Cowboys up at the Cardinals 31-yard line. As a point of reference, there was about :25 left in the game when Dez rose to his feet. The Cowboys owned 2 timeouts at this juncture, and despite that reality, the Cowboys did not stop the clock until Romo clocked the ball with :07 left.

The waste of 18 precious seconds made very little sense really. For one thing, their kicker, Dan Bailey, was having a rough afternoon. He had missed his first field goal in almost 3 months from the 36-yard line in the first Quarter going in the same direction. On that 53-yard kick, he clearly over-kicked with all of his might to get the ball there, revealing concerns about his range from that mid-30's spot on the field. However, the hold from Mat McBriar was certainly not precise and the distance on the kick was more than enough. But, Garrett's confidence appeared shaken. On the very next possession, the Cowboys were beneficiaries of a huge Felix Jones kick return and took the ball over at the Cardinals 35. Trouble is, they were unable to move the ball forward at all (including an odd decision on 3rd and 11 to throw the ball about 1-yard down-field, and when it became decision time, Garrett sent in his punter rather than allowing Bailey to try again from 52-yards.

Two drives later, the Cowboys had yet another drive stall, this time at the Cardinals 32. On this occasion (going the opposite direction at University of Phoenix Stadium), they ran Bailey out there and let him try again. And on this kick, Bailey converted on a 50-yard Field Goal, but barely as it required a friendly carom off the uprights and through.

So, to review, "No" from 53, "Don't try" from 52, and "Yes, but barely" from 50. So, why, from 49 yards do the Cowboys act as if it is a "gimme" and allow time for 2 to 3 more snaps to run off the clock in a game of massive importance? You would have to ask the coach.

Unfortunately, when you ask the coach, the answers are a bit unclear. He suggested that he was concerned about negative plays that might have backed the team out of FG range potentially, which certainly doesn't credit his veteran QB much after his late game heroics in the last few weeks. Fear for a negative play? That, frankly, is what troubles so many about the way the game plan is assembled in so many of these scenarios. Road games, especially against teams that you are favored to beat, tend to reveal game plans that are careful, conservative (1 yard throws on 3rd and 11), and makes the opponents' job so much easier. Attacking is minimized, and the Cowboys end up not attacking for most of the game. That is why they are needing OT to beat the Redskins. That is why they need all 60 minutes to beat the Dolphins by the skin of their teeth. And now, that is why they couldn't beat a Cardinals team led by Kevin Kolb - a guy who had not won a game since Week 1 - in 60 minutes off football. I do fully understand what makes Garrett feel this way as his offensive line is still quite offensive in their performance many weeks, but at some time you have to allow your best players to overcome the performances of the others.

And then, we get to the moment of truth. Dan Bailey lines up a 49-yarder for the win with :07 left. The retelling of the story in a more dramatic way as some have attempted that, "Bailey was in his backswing when the timeout was called" is silly. The whistle happened and then a full 2-count later the ball is snapped and Bailey does what anyone would do, and gets in a practice kick that he makes with ease. But, let us not confuse this with irrefutable evidence that he would have made this kick. There was no rush and frankly no pressure once he heard that whistle.

The reasoning for the timeout in this situation is at least plausible. While it seems hard to understand why the 40-second play clock was running out after a spiked play and a field goal team that appeared ready to go do its job is irrelevant. If the play clock was down to :07 as Garrett said after the game, then I don't mind him calling a timeout to reset everything. Again, it sounds way better to say he is "icing his own kicker" in the papers, but the reality is that a frantic kick with an expiring play clock is less appealing than a calm kick from the same spot.

Of course, the kick was short and the Cowboys never touched the ball again. In overtime, the offense watched as the defense surrendered an 80-yard drive in which they never forced a 3rd Down. The final play was a brilliantly executed screen right into a Rob Ryan fire-zone blitz. It was a perfect call and a touchdown that rocked the Cowboys season. Yet another gutting loss in Glendale.

But, to me, this demonstrates a problem that I have felt has been in place since Jason Garrett was hired last November. The job of head coach is one that I believe fits him well. However, the job of Head Coach on top of his prior post of offensive coordinator is too big in my opinion for most in the early portion of their coaching career.

Very few people know how many decisions a head coach must make in 3 hours. I imagine, only those who have done it would know for sure. Now, add in a couple hundred more decisions that any offensive coordinator must make and put them all inside the head of one human. Surely, it must make someone feel like the most important human in the world to make all of those decisions for the Dallas Cowboys. But, every time I see a challenge call that should have been used, a timeout wasted, a 12-men on the field penalty, a needless delay of game (which happened about a minute earlier), or something else that proves curious (forgetting a key weapon for several possessions in a row) I always come back to feeling like Jason Garrett is trying to do too much.

Unlike many, I do believe he is the man for this job. I believe he is a leader of men and gets them to maximize their abilities and to never quit in any situation. I think Garrett, like Jimmy Johnson, may actually be a better head coach than a coordinator. But, decisions like the one he made yesterday, where he allows 18 seconds to drip off the clock when he needs 5 or 6 more yards to feel confident, make me arrive back at the spot where I have always believed the Cowboys would be better served to hire someone to call plays so that he can have a more clear vision of his head coaching post and make vital decisions at the moments they must be made.

Can certain people do both jobs? Perhaps. But, in this situation and with this team, I would suggest that Garrett could be a much better head coach if he wasn't trying to do both jobs at the same time. One of my first priorities for the off-season would be to bring in a proper play caller and allow Garrett to over-see and occasionally, to over-rule.

But, as it currently stands, it is too much on this one man's plate. The question will be whether or not he and Jerry Jones are willing to concede this.

Sometimes smart men can be exceedingly stubborn. Especially when they refuse to concede that they may have made a mistake.

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