Camp Blog: Concerns for Leary's Knee and For Cowboys Depth

Reports in cyberspace over the last 24 hours give us considerable concerns with regards to Ronald Leary's knee issues and by extension, the makeup of the entire offensive line as we look ahead to the season opener on September 8 against the Giants.

Leary was an undrafted free agent after the 2012 draft where the Cowboys invested an extraordinary amount of cash for a player that was passed over again and again in the draft itself.  The Cowboys liked him and decided to live with his medical checks that surely knocked him off of many team's lists - including any pick the Cowboys might spend on Caleb McSurdy.

Leary has been a top performer in Oxnard and has given me tremendous optimism about his level of play - his bad knee pending.  But, as we have said a number of times here and everywhere, the trouble with injury prone players is that they spend a considerable amount of time injured.  And when he leaves the team on August 13 - rather than mid November - we are reminded how far the squad has to go in terms of depth.

This is particularly true on both the offensive and defensive line and it is a stark reminder to many of the    hole that this team is trying to dig out of during the present tense to fix the problems of the past tense.

As I have said for several years, the Cowboys top talent is comparable and competitive with those who are in the playoffs every year.  If you'd like, we can say that 1-10 or even 1-15, the Cowboys roster is very good.  It could be better, but it is more than passable with elite talent on its roster.  But, this league is about the ability to show your resolve and ability over the course of 6 months.  And during that time there are a number of physical challenges that result in attrition and subtraction to your resources.  It happens every year as in 2012 when we saw the Cowboys repeatedly sign street free agents who had to not only jump right onto the game-day roster, but many times right onto the field as a starter or key reserve.

Where the Cowboys run into major issues is when they are asked to matchup the bottom 30 on their roster with the bottom 30 elsewhere in the league.  For it is spots 16-45 on game-day that end up winning and losing many seasons.  And often times, during a year, someone in that group will have to elevate and replace someone who is lost from your elite.  If there is a significant drop-off in performance, you are then up a creek without a paddle.  But, if they can supply an adequate replacement, then you can survive.  That is why teams win in this league.  Nobody avoids attrition altogether.  Not all injury totals or injury victims are created equal, but championship teams are built to sustain a certain amount of damage.

So, a team that has little depth has certain spots where it simply cannot afford a hit.  And on this team, for a long, long time, it has been the interior of both the offensive line and the defensive line in total.  Do they have enough players to fill holes with some amount of excellence to survive and play on?  Or, because of the presence of a fringe NFL player who is elevated to start, is the squad no longer able to protect their QB and run their offense.  Are they no longer able to run the Tampa 2 as it is designed?

Rob Ryan will tell you that in 2012, his defense was never seen.  Rather, it was the defense that he was able to run with guys being plugged in every week as brand new players.  Nobody is here to argue that he did a fantastic job as defensive coordinator last year, but if somebody believes that another coordinator could have done more with Dan Connor, Brady Poppinga, and Ernie Sims playing linebacker and Eric Frampton and Charlie Peprah splitting safety duties in Week 17 at Washington, they are likely delusional.

The best teams in this league - as in the deepest - have reserves that are often draft picks that they are developing for just this moment.  San Francisco last season is a great example as their top 2 picks were not even used until December when injuries hit.  But, when they did, they plugged in AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James for the first time in Week 14.  That, is the complete opposite of signing Brady Poppinga off his couch and playing him that Sunday.

Now, that is an extreme example, but when this team now sees Brian Waters as a savior - a guy who hasn't played since 2011 and who is 36 years and is also on his couch right now, it does serve as a reminder that the roster has been greatly improved, but there is a long ways to go.  Waters, of course, is the savior this time, since Brandon Moore wants to retire instead of start at right guard.  And, Waters was the first choice in 2011 (he opted for New England), when the Cowboys ended up keeping another old guard Derrick Dockery from retirement - although his performance was amazingly forgettable.

These are your choices when Stephen Peterman, Pat McQuistan, Robert Brewster, Sam Young, and David Arkin don't pan out.

It is the treadmill of the NFL.  You make a mistake and you now have to make up for it.  You can sit there and say all teams make mistakes, because they do.  But, that doesn't help when Kevin Kowalski is  joining Phil Costa and Dockery trying to block Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre Paul in Week 17 of 2011.

If you want to know why Tony Romo and the Cowboys get killed for their December records, look no further than spots 16-45 on the roster.  When your ship leaves port at Labor Day each year, it can not resupply during the season.  Every player you lose is either replaced by somebody on board or you are grasping at the couch crews.  By December, you have lost 8 pieces of your group and have to plug them internally with picks and prospects.  But, what if you have a hole in your roster the size of 2008 and 2009?

Then, you are hoping Nate Living and Ron Leary hold up health-wise.  And that says nothing about Jay Ratliff playing and playing well for 16 Sundays.  And what if either Ratliff or Jason Hatcher are lost to injury?  What defensive tackle depth have they built?  So little that veteran free agent Nick Hayden and undrafted free agent Ben Bass look to be right with Sean Lissemore as your best options.  Yikes.  Not a ton of rotation players there.

This is a good team.  But, they remain paper thin in spots.  And although everyone is thin at certain spots, there are fewer spots to be thin at than on the line of scrimmage in both directions.  Which leads us back to the question of, "if you have 4 picks in the Top 80, can you afford to take luxury items like a tight end and another wide receiver?"

I was bothered by it in April, but I think we will all be bothered by it in November when we are seeing that the draft priorities in 2014 will be the same as what they should have been in 2012 and 2013; Getting as many 300 pound quality bodies in here as possible.

It is still quite possible that Leary will be able to stay healthy and give this team plenty of quality for the next bunch of years, but David Arkin is starting on Saturday in Arizona and I am still pretty convinced that he is a fringe roster player and certainly not a starter.  Costa remains undersized and out-powered as well, and Livings seems to have a way to go health-wise.

The Cowboys have been drafting better, I believe, but have been operating at a deficit for years and will need several more Bruce Carter home runs before they are back in the black.  In the meantime, cross your fingers and hold your breath.  It is August and the offensive line looks beat up and patched together already.

That is generally not a great sign.

Hope for the best on those medical updates over the next 3 weeks.

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Camp Blog: DeMarcus Ware's Trip To The Top

13 days ago, DeMarcus Ware turned 31 years old.  If that isn't enough to make you feel old and a reminder of how quickly NFL careers can zoom by, then I don't know what will.

Ware has been - along with Jason Witten - the identifiable hero of this era and on the fast track to be in both the Ring of Honor and the Pro Football Hall of Fame when those two careers come to a close.  They are the coach's dream types that you never have to worry about and you just hope the younger players are smart enough to watch and learn every chance they get from the best in the business.

He is off to begin his 9th season and from the look of his form at camp so far, he appears destined to have another fantastic season.  And what does that mean for DeMarcus Ware?  Well, you can always start with the simple idea that aside from everything else, he will shock the league if he DOESN'T get double-digit sack totals.

Here are his year to year totals since being drafted in 2005:

2005	8.0
2006	11.5
2007	14.0
2008	20.0
2009	11.0
2010	15.5
2011	19.5
2012	11.5
Totals	111.0

He just keeps chugging along.  His streak of 7 consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks is an active record in the NFL, and puts him in a rare class with Reggie White and Bruce Smith for that type of thing.

He is already 4th in the NFL in active career sacks, trailing just 3 players still in the league in John Abraham (122), Jared Allen (117), and Julius Peppers (111.5).  Those 3 all preceded Ware into the league and the closes player to Ware who entered the league at the same time as him?  Trent Cole has 71 career sacks - a full 40 behind Ware.

Allen actually has a current streak of 6 seasons of 10+ sacks, but Abraham's career high is 2 seasons in a row and Peppers has never done more than 3 straight.  And yet, Ware has done it every year since 2006 and is still at the top of his game.

But how long can that last?  Well, back in the spring, we played the hypothetical game of what would Ware be worth in a trade and found out about pass rushers after age 31:

History tells us that pass rushers can have great careers past 31. 

Bruce Smith had 94 sacks after his 31st birthday.  Reggie White, who was 31 when he signed in Green Bay, still had 74 more sacks after his 31st birthday.  Kevin Greene had 87.5 sacks after that birthday, too.  Chris Doleman had 74.5 starting with the season after turning 31.  Even Michael Strahan had 57 sacks beyond age 31.   

There is plenty of reason to believe, based on looking at the 5 best sackers of all-time that you can still do plenty of damage after the age of 31.  Running backs don't age well, but apparently there is still a lot of miles left for the elite guys at getting to the QB if they stay in great shape.  And Ware appears to be one of those for sure.  And if he puts up numbers like those 5 players, he will jump a few of them and make a run at the Bruce Smith's all-time number of 200.  He needs 89 more sacks.

Only 8 players in NFL history can boast having 8 seasons or more of 10+ sacks.  I don't mean consecutive seasons, but just 8 seasons at all.   The list of 10+ sack seasons in a career:

Bruce Smith - HOF	13
Reggie White - HOF	12
Kevin Greene	10
John Randle - HOF	9
Richard Dent - HOF	8
Chris Doleman - HOF	8
Leslie O'Neal	8
Simeon Rice	8
DeMarcus Ware and others	7

As you can see, it seems odd that Kevin Greene cannot get into the Hall of Fame, given his accomplishments over the course of his awesome career.  But, he still has some time.  

I also find it interesting how he is right behind Simeon Rice.  Rice is a very under-rated player from the last 20 years as he spent the 2nd half of his career in Tampa Bay playing the exact spot in the Tampa-2 for Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli that Ware will now play from 2013-.  Rice had 57.5 sacks in 5 years for the Bucs from 2001-2005, so he the bar for DeMarcus is very high.

There are 2 significant questions that remain in this equation.  Who is going to effectively play the role of Warren Sapp in his prime?  It is one thing to say UFA-to-be Jason Hatcher (also 31 as he is actually 3 weeks older than Ware) is having a nice camp.  It is altogether different to say he is ready to do anything close to what Sapp did to the NFL during his time in Tampa.  Sapp was the gold standard for the 3-technique and no matter how hard you squint, it is impossible to see that the Cowboys will have that type of force.  

And remember, the Tampa-2 and much of what Kiffin preaches is based on the front 4 getting pressure and stopping the run by themselves.  This leaves 7 players for coverage and flying around making tackles.  But, if your 4 cannot whip their 5, then the defense falls apart.  And that is why we wonder if Tony Dungy was right when he argued that the Cowboys might need 2 drafts to get the personnel right to run this defense.  

I suppose that is why Sharrif Floyd is still in the back of everyone's mind who follows this team.  The Cowboys needed Travis Frederick to have a solid offense, but they also needed a young, quality 3-technique to be in an ideal position defensively.  Floyd is in Minnesota and they will bring him along behind Kevin Williams for now.  Meanwhile, the 2 interior players for the Cowboys are Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher with Sean Lissemore and Ben Bass behind them, it seems.  Is there a realistic view that sees that being disruptive enough to stress the opponent's OL?

The second significant question with the Ware topic goes back to the looming contract issues.  After 2013, he has 4 years and about $62 million remaining on his deal which includes a cap hit in 2014 for $16 million and in 2015 for $17.5 million.  With Tony Romo at $21.7m and $25.3m in those 2 years, you can see how a salary-cap stressed franchise is going to have to be creative to figure out the rest of the puzzle to make this all work out.  

But, beyond that, it is a fantastic luxury to have DeMarcus Ware on this franchise with plenty of good years in front of him.  The next time someone next to you argues that he is over-rated or the silly discussion that he doesn't get "big sacks", feel free to move to a different seat elsewhere.

He is an absolute legend.  

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Monday After Preseason: Oakland 19, Dallas 17

In preseason Game #2, the Cowboys slowly ramped up their use of starters to give us our first look in the 2013 camp of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarcus Ware, and others who will be doing the lion's share of the heavy lifting this season when the games really matter.

Clearly, we saw plenty of things that tell us positive things - like a fantastic delayed blitz from Sean Lee that came free and caused another takeaway (can we all imagine what this thing might be capable of if takeaways are no longer a foreign concept?).  It also revealed that there is plenty of work to do with regards to self-inflicted wounds.

Most notably, we are back to an unreasonable amount of offensive penalties that continue to kill drives and put the team behind the chains when trying to make things happen on the scoreboard.  This team always has absurd amounts of yardage and not enough points to show for it.  That comes down to a number of factors that are all linked together in the offensive game.  They are most easily traced back to red zone inefficiency which is often brought down by "drive killers."  And what are drive killers?  Sacks, negative runs, but most inexcusably, penalties.  And what from the penalty family is enough to frustrate everyone?  Presnap penalties?

False start of James Hanna.  False start of Ron Leary.  Holding on Jason Witten.  All in the first 2 drives of the Cowboys (the drives where everyone played) that otherwise could have been worth 14 points.  Instead, they left with 3 points.  That is familiar inefficiency.  On a team where Doug Free led all tackles in penalties in the entire league, and where Tyron Smith and Witten both ranked very highly in their positional groups, then to call that an initiative this season is a fair idea.

Beyond that, there were some fine adjustments made between Tony Romo and Dez Bryant when Tracy Porter jumped a slant route and they improved for a big gain and more promising work from Ronald Leary and Travis Frederick inside for most of the night.  It should be noted, however, that Frederick is noticeably better at center right now than guard.  I would leave him there and not look back.  Especially given that Phil Costa still looks overpowered in certain scenarios.

SPECIAL TEAMS ISSUES

One theme that constantly was heard on Friday night was the disastrous manner in which Rich Bisaccia  and his special teams took center stage and showed us they have plenty of work to do.

It is important to understand how preseason makes special teams analysis almost ridiculous.  A special teams coach does have to prepare his units to be ready to play for preseason - but those units and the group he will actually have in Week 1 are totally different.

I have been told by more than a few personnel people that if you want clues on who is likely to make a team by watching preseason games, watch who they put out to cover kicks to start games.  By the 2nd half, it is mostly comprised of players who will not make the club or who have less than a likely chance.  But, those in the 1st Quarter are the odds-on favorites to make the team based on their value to the special teams.

If you are new this season to my blog, a quick lesson on special teams.  Ask any coach the value of a special teams unit and they will often tell you it is what hinges a fringe team from making the playoffs or not.  In the Cowboys case last season alone, 2 games that were lost could have been converted to wins if the special teams group did not bust so badly.  The road games at Seattle and Baltimore were both easily sabotaged because of a huge return, a blocked kick, or another moment that broke down without warning.  Several other games were affected, and the game at Philadelphia was won with Dwayne Harris putting on a show as a punt returner.

So, if you have 53 players on your roster - with 46 dressed on game-day, you see this is not college football.  Every member of the 46 must be ready to contribute to either offense, defense, or special teams (save for your backup QBs).  Once you consider those numerical realities, you quickly see that anyone who is not playing 50 snaps or more for their offensive or defensive units, must be strong and solid coverage players on kicks and punts.  If they aren't, then you are wasting spots and once injuries hit early in a game, you are in full panic mode as a coaching staff.

Again, filling spots on special teams is not the goal.  The goal is to not lose a game and thus a playoff spot because your special teams were just filled with warm bodies and suddenly a kick return ends your season.  You must have quality and the end game must be at least to play even-up against an opponent in these 15-20 snaps a game that are often ignored by most fans and fantasy football leagues.

When we fill out our projections for the roster - which I will this week - we must place strong consideration to who can cover and block on kick teams if they are not clear-cut starters.  That is why we are foolish to not consider Eric Frampton, JJ Wilcox, Lance Dunbar, Phillip Tanner, Kyle Wilber, Devonte Holloman, and of course, Danny McCray as very likely spine members of Bisaccia's crew.

Coverage units are usually comprised of backup linebackers, tight ends, defensive backs, and certain running backs and wide receivers.  The more you can be trusted to tackle a return man in the open field, the more valuable you make yourself to the team.  And the more valuable you are, the more likely you are to make the team - and then to dress on game day.

Some of these guys - like Tanner, Wilber, McCray, and Holloman will play on all 4 teams - punt cover, punt return, kick cover, and kick return.  That leads to continuity, which then leads to fewer busts because you are constantly turning things over.

The opposite is what affects guys down the list at safety or wide receiver.  Can Cole Beasley help you on special teams?  It is tough given his size, unless he is the actual returner.  Now that Harris and Dez Bryant are that guy, where can Beasley help you?  If he is your 4th or 5th best wide receiver, he will not play many offensive snaps.  No snaps plus no special teams contribution mean that despite his talents, it is a tough call to put him on your roster.  If Danny Coale can play on your special teams and Cole Beasley cannot, you have to know that Beasley must be significantly better on offense to win that battle.  Matt Johnson?  Same issues, although we are just guessing because we haven't really seen him cover yet.  Lance Dunbar?  What if Will Allen is not a starter at safety in October?  Reserves with no special teams value are very difficult to justify unless they play on either line.

So, the issues BW Webb showed as a return man or the overall busts in the 2nd half don't trouble me.  Those guys won't be in those spots when it really matters.  What does concern me is the issues surrounding the units in general.  When guys are on the fringe of the roster - ALWAYS ask what they might help you accomplish on kicks and punts.  If the answer is nothing, then they will have a very hard time surviving the final cuts.

That is the numbers game that is being sorted out in the personnel rooms around the league right now.  You do not want your season to go up in smoke because you got a FG blocked or a punt returned.

If someone makes the team and you can't figure out why, know that it is very likely because Rich Bisaccia argued hard that he needs him on his specialty units.  He will assemble a spine group of 5-7 and fill in the gaps with the table scraps from Jason Garrett and Monte Kiffin.  And then he will be expected to never lose the Cowboys a game.  It is not as easy a gig as some think.

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Oxnard Blog: On Parcells, Garrett, And Keepin It Real

One of the more enjoyable aspects of Hall of Fame weekend was reflecting on the coaching ability and traits of Bill Parcells.  The Hall of Fame coach did a nice job of talking about his career and thanking people, but he couldn't help but drop in a few of his philosophies of coaching that I so respected.

And it is clear, by the way, that when it comes to Parcells, and the way he believed in the sport, that it all could be traced back to his time at Army (when his friendship with Bob Knight began) and no doubt a time in his life when he saw the way a proper leadership structure can make all of the difference in the world.  Parcells knew that a team had to become a team to figure out a way to navigate through the troubled waters that a football season would present.  There will be losses, and mistakes, and injuries, and yes, occasionally a very serious off-the-field matter that would test the continuity and resolve of every member of the organization.  If they were all together and on the same agenda, they could get through it.

But, if they were on 5 different pages (See: the 2008 Cowboys) then they would take something great and turn it into something you take to the curb so that the garbage man will take it away when he makes his rounds.

In many ways, so much of Parcells' message on Saturday night in Canton was built around unity, leadership, and team.  I think perhaps the one that hit home the most was a story he told near the end of his speech about a moment he had with Giants' owner Wellington Mara moments after Parcells was first named the head coach decades ago.  Mara walked him over to a plaque on the wall in the Giants' locker-room and showed him the following inscription.

"Losers assemble in little groups and complain.  Winners assemble as a team and find ways to win." - Emlen Tunnell

There are certainly fun little sayings that we all email to each-other and then forget about, but there are times where a quote seems to properly capture what a person is all about.  In this case, I feel that Parcells lived this quote as a coach and installed it on the hard drive of any player who would listen.  I think the single most important trait of a football team that achieves greatness can be found on that plaque.  And that is why I have hope for the Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys.

We don't know what goes on behind closed doors as fans or media.  We can guess and piece together anecdotal evidence of things operating smoothly or not.  But, it was clear to me that when Parcells left the Cowboys, there was a real climate change in the room.

Now, many players enjoyed the heck out of this change. To them, the freedom of not being afraid that the principal was stalking the hallways was labeled as "treats us like men" as they described Wade Phillips to the media.  They were tired of being treated like schoolboys and being told how to behave and to cut that hair and to get back in line.

But, now, we are allowed to conduct ourselves as we please and say what we want.  We can wear our uniform as we wish and workout back home if we want and even take a little vacation during the bye week (Cabo!).  Isn't it great that we are allowed to make our own decisions?  Why did Parcells treat us like we were in high school?

Eventually, having a head coach who did not demand respect, but instead asked politely for it began to cause alternate agendas.  It even started on the coaching staff where assistants, hired before Phillips in some cases, would not fully protect the authority of the head coach and at times either undermine him or stand down when someone else would.  The pyramid of authority and chain of command that was so thoroughly in place from 2003 to 2006 had all but disappeared when we heard of a legendary and divisive spat in the offense to wear Terrell Owens and company took on Jason Garrett and Tony Romo, even suggesting that Romo played favorites with his pal, Jason Witten, at the expense of getting Owens and his fellow receivers the ball.

By the way, this sort of thing springs up anywhere football is played.  The difference between a Parcells staff and a Jerry Jones staff is that Parcells staff would have weeded that out of the room about a nanosecond after it presented itself.  Instead, with players unhappy, the coaching staff fractured, leading the team to collapse, and ultimately they quit on several occasions in that '08 season and I look back and wonder how that would have been handled differently if they simply assembled as a team and found a way.

Instead, we got "Keepin' It Real Thursdays" in the next few years where receivers would get in their positional meetings and speak their minds about how they aren't being used properly.  Good gracious.  They actually gave those who thought they knew more than the head coach or offensive coordinator a forum to speak?  I doubt this happened much at West Point.

Losers assemble in little groups and complain. 

I don't know what kind of coach Ray Sherman is these days (WR Coach in St Louis), but when he was in Dallas, he helped create an environment that harbored complaining and separate agendas rather than uniting behind his superior.  He was painted as a player's coach, which is something that sounds good in print but seldom plays well when a head coach loses his team because his assistants are trying to set themselves up for their job promotion.

It is possible that Sherman thought he could design an offense better than Jason Garrett.  And maybe he was right, but as it was happening, the offense would undermine Romo to their sources and we are still trying to pick up the pieces of Romo's assassinated character despite his solid play throughout his career.  The factions created on this team when Phillips had no idea how to lead as a head coach were severe and difficult to heal.

But, I believe Jason Garrett is making big progress in this department.

Now, again, we don't know exactly what goes on behind closed doors, but one thing I have seen in the last 3 seasons is a feeling that the Jason Garrett Cowboys swing closer to the Parcells' days than the Phillips days with regards to structure, unity, and weeding out divisive forces that tend to cause issues in the name of personal agendas.  Now, certainly, Rob Ryan's bravado did not help Garrett's unified message and it is clear that Jerry Jones does not realize that it all starts with making sure the assistants that work here are working with loyalty to the head coach as their top priority.

But, expecting Jerry Jones to understand what Tunnell was saying is sadly, an unreasonable goal.

Does Garrett understand it, and more importantly desire that?  I believe he absolutely does.

Hopefully, you had a chance to see him address the team from a few weeks back (if not, watch it here) or you had the opportunity to hear him on our radio show on Wednesday (if not, the audio is here).  In both cases, you can see him without his normal "press conference mode" setting on that frustrates so many.

He is a football man from a football family.  His dad was a football coach when Jason was born.  He understands what loyalty and unity can do to maximize a team's performance.  He knows when adversity hits, it can go two ways and a team that is unified has a better chance not to implode under its own pressure.

Now, unlike Bill Parcells, Garrett did not name his entire staff, nor does he have the credibility of winning Super Bowls that allowed the old coach to act in any sort of Darth Vader way he wanted and get away with it.  He still has a boss that doesn't seem to acknowledge that a military chain of command that ends with the head coach is a proven way to win in this league, rather than the meddling owner model that seems to usually end in unintentional comedy.

But, I believe the program is being built. I loved what I saw from the head coach in 2012 when great adversity hit the team and they played some of their most inspired ball as they were going through the Josh Brent/Jerry Brown tragedy.  They also never quit when injury after injury hurt the team's quality, rather we started to see the "next man up" mentality that is adapted by the good teams in the NFL.

Parcells mentioned in his Hall of Fame speech that on several occasions, his career almost ended before it started because of a losing streak.  He thought he was one loss from being fired and it took a great escape or we would never know his story or his life lessons.

Now, many of you will read this and remind me that Parcells didn't set the world on fire in Dallas, and that Wade actually was the coach to get an elusive playoff win - not the Big Tuna.  And that would be true, and short sighted.

The best leaders on today's Dallas Cowboys were all trained as young players by Parcells back in their formative years.  Romo, Witten, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, and Miles Austin all were Parcells' guys with his memories and quotes in their heads.  Unfortunately, the legacy that Wade left is never talked about and Wade's guys are pretty much all gone already.

Nobody will make the case that Garrett has it all figured out.  He makes mistakes and has issues like any coach in the league.  He also is at a place in his career where it can go either way.  He is 21-19 and if he doesn't hit the gas soon, Jerry will get the itch again to find his next headline grabbing hire.

But those traits that made Parcells great are traits that Garrett values.  He preaches and promotes unity and coming together as a team and leaving your personal gripes in the trash.  And for these reasons - among others (including his ability to assemble young promising talent), I believe he still has a real chance to be considered a strong head coach in the next 24-36 months.

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Oxnard Blog: Brandon Moore Edition

Perhaps in many respects, what we have seen in the last 12 hours is simply how life in the NFL works.

A rookie emerges.  A veteran blows out his knee.  A prospect retires.  A signing changes his mind.  It is a roller coaster of emotions surrounding a series of practice sessions.

For it was around 10pm Central time last night when word started circulating that a deal with Brandon Moore was close for the Cowboys.  Then, within the hour, word broke from a number of reliable sources that, in fact, the deal was done.  They had signed a right guard who had played 11 seasons in the same New York Jets uniform, starting most of those 11 seasons and playing at a very high level with impressive health.

I watched about 200 of his snaps last night to break down his ability from 2012 on this blog and I will tell you that although I would not consider him to be Carl Nicks or Mike Iupati when it comes to All-Pro Guards, he would have easily been the best guard the Cowboys had in their lineup since Leonard Davis in 2007 or so.

Watching Moore play a strong game for a Jets team that was a squad that had no choice but to play a strong and powerful run game made you understand how strength is a real factor in running zone stretch plays, but more importantly, inside runs and pulling guard opportunities.  He was stout and almost never turned back (Vince Wilfork could do it) and when he got on the move - which the Jets featured often - he was a very impressive player who would seek and physically dominate guys around the corner as he opened a path for his running back.

In pass protection, he hardly had anything to criticize.  He was confident and strong and generally not challenged on pass rushes and looked like he had seen everything 1,000 times.  Most likely, because he had.

If you have read my work for a week, you know my feelings about the offensive line.  And therefore you likely realize that I was pretty excited about the prospect of adding a guy like this who almost nobody in the NFL circles have anything bad to say about the guy.  He would have filled out that 3rd interior spot with a level of play that was beyond my expectations since the Cowboys neglected to upgrade their guard situation in the spring when it is best addressed.

Brandon Moore would easily walk from the street to being perhaps the offensive lineman you would rate behind Tyron Smith as the guy you least have to worry about in 2013.  And, he verbally agreed to terms last night and was going to fly in, and medicals pending, sign today.

Well, that changed at sunrise.

Moore decided that he second thoughts and instead has decided to retire.  He had played from his house for 11 years and with his family had settled in nicely.  To change all of that and leave them all to move to Dallas for 1 more year (most likely) was something that he tried to sleep on and couldn't.

He also told Sirius NFL Radio that the time to prepare was critical as well, as he had no desire to show up in August and not play at his normal level.  Had this been in March or April, he could have confidently prepared as he normally does, but now just 1 month from the opener was not enough time for him to feel good about where he would be in Week 1.   He wanted to do this because of his personal regard for Bill Callahan, but between family and preparation time, he had cold feet this morning.

Now, that leaves us with a number of questions that you have presented me with:

1) - If he is so great, why was he available on August 6th?

Well, this is the CBA these days.  Many players make a ton of money.  But, the long-time veterans get to a spot where when their contract expires, they find that multi-level deals are not offered to 33 year old guards who play at a solid level.  1-year deals for the veteran minimum are everywhere, but they are accustomed to long term details at $4m a season, they are not dying to jump across the desk to sign in May.  So, they sit out, waiting for something better.  As July arrives, they start to ponder whether they still want to play if the money is only at that level.  And that is where many vets over 30 sit right now.  If they have managed their money well, each day comes closer to them pondering if they really are that committed anymore.  Obviously, Moore decided that whatever the deal (thought to be around $2m) was not worth his trouble.  And given that he made very solid money for the last decade, you can understand that he didn't feel he had to leave his setup for a 5 month work detail in the NFL trenches.

2) - Were the Cowboys telling us that they are in big trouble on the Offensive Line?

I think that this verifies that the first 2 weeks have not told them good things about their starters from 2012 - Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Both have had poor health summers after mediocre seasons and the combination of the 2 has many wondering if either were going to start on Opening Night.  This, combined with Travis Frederick at center and Ronald Leary at Left Guard playing so well has put the OL in a different spot altogether from where it was 12 months ago. The premise that they were ready to cut Bernadeau if they got Moore done is not a difficult idea to wrap your head around.  David Arkin is not a starter, Phil Costa doesn't appear to be, either.  So, with Livings out the next month, and Bernadeau is what he is, you can see that they could go with Leary-Frederick-Bernadeau if they had to, but who would argue that Leary-Frederick-Moore is a major upgrade from that and anything they have run out in 5 years?

3) - So What Do They Do Now?

Everyone is discussing Brian Waters, but he hasn't played since 2011 and I think the football department is not nearly as interested as the fan-base.  I think they saw Moore as unique opportunity because of his friendship with Callahan and saw that as an easy chance to upgrade with a guy who understood the system.  That doesn't mean that they were panicked and had to make a move and now sign the next guy.  I don't love Bernadeau starting for me, but I do think he can be ok there for now and the real idea is to get Leary and Frederick to prove their merits to see if they are truly as good as they look at this moment in time.

Either way, I feel better about the line.  But, for about 10 hours, I felt great about the upgrades when it looked like Moore was in the fold.  Now, we must return to the reality that they have plenty of work to do and plenty of "ifs" that they are going to try to prove as realities.

As teams across the NFL find out every day, there is no telling what the next 24 hours might have in store for a team preparing for a season.

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The Morning After: HOF Game - Dallas 24, Miami 20

I am always up for over-analyzing something that might not require over-analyzing, but I will attempt to slow my roll given that it is a preseason game that preceded all other preseason games by a full week.

In other words, it is really early, folks.

However, entering training camp, there are 2 departments on this team that needed to prove that they were better than they have been in the recent past.  Safeties and offensive line.  Player availability and opposition efforts preclude us from reading too much into the safety play - other than JJ Wilcox is an impressive physical presence and that Matt Johnson remains a durability concern (to say the very, very least).  Other than that, I think we must wait a week or two before we talk much on the safeties based on preseason game work.  However, you can already see that they need plenty of work getting the proper depth so they don't play too shallow and risk plays over the top, but also not too deep leaving very easy 20 yard gains on digs that are beyond the linebackers and in a huge gulf short of the too deep, 2 deep safeties.

But, offensive line?  Well, that is where I spent most of my Sunday night and Monday morning on analyzing a few spots in particular.

First, some brief background - because if you need more than brief, I would encourage you to read the archives of this blog as I have spent somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 words documenting the issues of the offense in general and the offensive line in specific on why this unit on the team controls pretty much everything (regardless of what the NFL Network or ESPN try to put on the Quarterback).

In 2010, the offensive line was very poor and needed a change in many regards if they were ever going to run the football effectively.  They did change, and for a while, we were left to believe that undersized kids like Phil Costa and Bill Nagy, and retreads like Montrae Holland and Tony Fiammetta made all of the difference in the world in 2011.  However, by the end, they were exposed by the Giants (among others) and they knew that to get better in 2012, it would have to start with the OL.  But, in 2012, the "upgrades" were actually discards from other teams looking to get their own upgrades (Bengals and Panthers) and before long we saw that change doesn't always mean improvement.  For most of 2012, they couldn't run a normal, balanced offense.  It was actually worse than 2011 in many respects,  and 2011 was at times, worse than 2010.  They had 3 drastically different OL ideas in 3 consecutive seasons, but for the most part, they were limited by the negative play of the OL all 3 seasons.  Change never helped.

So, there you have a brief history of the achilles heel of Jason Garrett, Tony Romo, and pretty much the entire Cowboys offense since they last played in the post-season.

And that brings us to preseason 2013.

If you are not familiar with my training camp policies, it is basically to not read too much into practices in Oxnard for decision making.  I know many of my media colleagues disagree with this (based on the daily updates on who is winning the starting job at guard based on a Tuesday practice) but I like to treat practices and walk throughs like someone studying for their tests in college.  It is great that you studied well, son, but we are only interested if you can answer the test questions when we give you the test.  Playing at practice speed should prepare you for game speed, but practicing against other Cowboys doesn't help me very much.  I like to see them trying to deal with what another team is running out there and against players that don't know all of your tricks (or you, theirs) and therefore it seems like a more fair fight and something that should actually matter.

With that in mind, Sunday night in Canton was our first look at the 3 interior spots which to varying levels, all seem like open spots in the starting lineup and on the roster.

Here is what I saw:

RONALD LEARY - Let's start with the exciting news.  Consistent with those practice reports, we are seeing Leary look like a guy who is ready to contribute in this league at a reasonably high level.  And by that, it is fair to see him in the mix as a starter at left guard - especially if these whispers of Nate Livings knee issues are correct.  In many regards, he is very similar to Livings, which means he is strong at the point of attack, and big enough that you aren't going to go past him in pass rushing very often.  Unlike Livings, Leary actually looks comfortable on the move and getting to the 2nd level to dig guys out and they certainly enjoy pulling him on some "G Power" plays to the right.  He played a ton and I saw almost nothing that bothered me at all about his performance.  He looks way better than he did technique-wise in 2012.  Long ways to go, but they have to be very happy about what he has shown so far.

TRAVIS FREDERICK - They played him for most of the 1st half at center and then most of the 2nd half at guard.  I thought his center play was terrific, where he is basically directing traffic well and then handling his own business with ease.  He is just a really strong center (especially when compared with the Cowboys other option at center, Phil Costa) who seems to know where he is going and what he is doing already - a skill not to be overlooked for a rookie.  When they moved him to guard, he struggled a bit more and at times looked so/so.  It appears he is of average strength for a guard.  I can see that they are hoping that he could be the solution at right guard, but I think that might weaken them at both center and right guard.  Play him at his best position and figure the rest out around him, in my opinion.  Of course, his true test at center is going to be shotgun offense with live ammo and Romo changing a play, but so far, so good.

DAVID ARKIN - This is Arkin's 3rd year and he is still hoping to take his first NFL snap, but it does appear that he is noticeably better.  However, the projections that say he is ready to play 70 snaps in a game seem absurd to me, as he again really struggles when a DL threat is lined up on his head.  When uncovered, he has great feet and mobility, but when he is challenged off the snap, his strength issues come to the front quite quickly.  On those zone stretch plays, if you have a lineman who cannot hold his line, he can get pushed back into the path of the RB which leads to a tackle for loss most times.  Arkin is guilty of this a few times against the Dolphins and it wasn't like Miami had their 1s out against him very much.  I think he might be a reserve option, but this starting idea is not close for me.  Let's see his work for a few more weeks.

PHIL COSTA - Like Arkin, the issue with Costa has always been strength for me.  In 2011, he was comically over-matched against the premium nose tackles and interior men in the league and then missed 2012 almost entirely with back issues which never seem to be the recipe for getting stronger.  He replaced Frederick late in the 2nd Quarter at center and played the rest of the way and was fine in most situations, but there were about 3 different times where he was fork lifted backwards beyond the rest of the line which seems to indicate that he is still getting pushed around at the point of attack.  This can be hid a bit better than Arkin because if Costa is at center, then you have 2 strong guards protecting him, but I still don't like the idea of him at center with Frederick available.  And Arkin or Costa at guard is just not idea with your intentions to establish run and play-action passing in 2013.

Beyond that, they were surrounded by tackles that really are not candidates to make the team for most of the night, but the running game did well and there was very little inside pass protecting issues.

Overall, just seeing Leary and Frederick out there shows you that they have way better options than they have had from the youth ranks, and assuming that Livings and Bernadeau will be able to compete soon make you think that they are going to have a chance to be better.

There are 4 more preseason games to continue to work these guys and health issues can emerge at any moment, but I left the Hall of Fame Game night with some better feelings about this pivotal position on the roster that will really affect the potential of the 2013 Cowboys.

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Cowboys Mailbag 8/2

Another Friday, but not just any other Friday.  This is a Friday where the NFL prepares for a weekend in Canton, Ohio to induct another deserving class of Hall of Famers.  And to the delight of football fans everywhere, the start of actual game action in the league as the Cowboys face the Dolphins in the Hall of Fame Game.

Now, clearly, the excitement of preseason football does not last more than a short while as everyone quickly realizes that teams have a main objective of getting nobody hurt this early in the game and therefore you will spend much of the preseason watching guys ranked between 30-90 on the training camp rosters playing for those final 20-25 roster spots (of which most of them are already earmarked for certain players), but beggars cannot be choosers.

You have waited months for the return of our league, and for now, it is what we have.  And that will be a look at your 2013 Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night.  Let's get it on.

Now to your emails (Sturm1310@me.com):

Your perspective on things Nate Newton is saying about the OLine - Bryan Broadus also has been writing about the O-Line!   Both have said good things about Doug Free, Kevin Kowalski and David Arkin.   What are your impressions of how they are doing.   Livings and Bernadeau really scare me.   And, I know that you say that taking Tyron Smith over JJ Watt was ok in your book.  

 But, I have been thinking that Watt is a keystone player kind of like a keystone species.   A defensive player like Watt has an effect on the whole defense and offense(in giving them the ball back more and in better position).  Whereas Offensive tackle cannot impact the game as much with outstanding play.   Mike Lombardi who I think is the GM of the Browns now said in one of his blog posts that you have to evaluate why you did not pick a person like Watt.   Like to know what you think…. 

Thanks for all of your hard work…you are pretty much all I read since Lombardi went to the Browns! - Bob Woodyard

Well, there is quite a bit to what you are saying Bob, so let me start with what Nate Newton and my buddy Bryan Broaddus are saying from training camp.  First of all, if you wanted 2 guys who know a ton about offensive line play and football in general, I would nominate both of them.  I am not as aware of what Nate is saying, but I consider Broaddus a must follow on Twitter and a guy I speak with on a regular basis.  He has helped me and taught me a ton about how to watch and analyze football for the last decade or so and I owe him plenty for his time and effort.

Now, remember, while most of the media and fan-base rate a player on a simple scale of 1 or 10 (meaning, a player is usually either great or a bust - see: Dez Bryant, 2012), both of those guys operate on the ability to look at each player from a standpoint of whether or not they can help the 53 man roster improve.  I join them in trying to look at how each piece fits and how each player develops from where they were when they arrived in the league to where they are going.  Fans and media want to know about fantasy football implications and about superstars and how Tony Romo compares to Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

I contend that it is not our efforts to follow the NFL like that, and I believe Broaddus has as little interest in fantasy football as I do - which is very little.

What was the point of saying all of that?  Well, it is that we need to learn to translate what is being said about players.  For instance, is a reserve player who has never played a snap, like David Arkin, looking better than David Arkin has ever looked in a Cowboys uniform?  Yes.  We think so.  Does that mean he is ready to vault all the way to the starting lineup?  That is extremely doubtful.  And that is the nuance that you have to follow camp with.  The league may operate in the headlines that either a player is a starter or he doesn't matter, but the fact is that teams need a total of 61 players (53 + 8 man practice squad) that they squat on and try to develop all at the same time while rating the rest of the league's 1900 players and those on the outside looking in.  

So, you have a dossier of all of these players based on the requirements for the 9-11 offensive linemen you can keep.  Is Ronald Leary now prepared to step up to be a #7 after spending last season as a #10? Sure.  Is he ready to be a #3 or #4?  That is where preseason will tell us more than practices in Oxnard.  

I just feel it is necessary to remind people that 52 weeks ago, people were saying very glowing things about Arkin - including everyone on the Blue Star Network which airs the preseason games - and then when the season was played, he never was even worth activating.  Similarly, a few years back (I believe 2010) we were scolded by the broadcasters on the Blue Star Network for underrating Robert Brewster's prospects.  He was cut a few weeks later. 

The point is that players are propped up this time of year and sometimes it means they are now on their way to making the team (which we often forget is a major, major accomplishment for many players) and sometimes it means they are ready to start 1,000 snaps this year against the best players in the NFL.  It is just important to remember that there is a significant difference there.  Which means, when a player is being complimented for his play in a practice in late July or early August, to remember the many rungs in the ladder before we think a guy is ready to emerge from nowhere to being the opening day starter at guard or anywhere else.

Meanwhile, on JJ Watt versus Tyron Smith, back in January I spent 2,000 words hashing this out as far as I could.  It is clear that JJ Watt is a beast and a man amongst men.  It is also true that there is some question how much better Tyron will ultimately get.   I still think it is a very complicated decision that will impact things more and more if Watt is considered a Top 5 NFL player and Tyron is an under the radar left tackle.  

I am also one who enjoys a good 2nd guess, but since I felt strongly about Smith in 2011 on draft day, it would be awful hypocritical to reverse field now that Tyron is still only 22 years old.  

It does make you wonder about taking the best player available and ignoring need on draft day.  It also makes you wonder how he fell all the way to #11 in what might go down as a very solid draft.  

I got the impression Jason Garret was threaten by Rob Ryan. It seemed to me he was trying to undermine his efforts. When Jerry put him in charge of the draft. Jason is going to improve the offence. During the season. There was a feeling there was two head coaches on the field. One was always trying to blame the other for losing. Jason won because he easer for Jerry to push around. Will not stand his ground. If the  Team does good this season. Jerry will claim the credit for putting together the coaching staff. Making the draft picks. More Jerry crap.      

They will lose. It will be Jason fault. A head couch needs to make football decisions. Not general manager /owner. The only success the cowboys have was under Tom, Jimmy and Bill. They were in charge of football decision. Coaches and players. So I will turn off ticket. When they talk about play offs. It will not happen. - Donald

You speak for many Cowboys fans and I just want to focus on the one thing that jumped out at me from your email of great frustration:  I don't think I can undersell the importance of a coach naming his own staff.  Anyone at any level of coaching in the NFL aspires to move up the ladder someday.  This means that there is a team agenda and a personal agenda for each coach.  If he does not feel a link of loyalty to the guy who hired him, then he is crazy.  But, what if his superior did not hire him?  What if he was hired by the big boss and the head coach was simply given who would serve under him?

This leads to fractured agendas on the staff.  This is one of Jerry's most egregious errors in judgement through the years, in my opinion.  He made Chan Gailey and Dave Campo assume most of their assistants, and after Bill Parcells left, made Wade Phillips assume a staff that he was not familiar with.  Heck, Jason Garrett was hired before Wade was in 2007, so turnabout is fair play, I suppose when it comes to Garrett suffering from disloyalty or at least separate agendas when it was his turn to be head coach.

I have always believe that a head coach must be given the right to either approve or hire all of his assistants without any sort of pressure from above.  It leads to assistants feeling beholden to the head coach and therefore when they look in the mirror, they know what is expected of them to have the back of the HC when he is not there.  They are much less likely to undermine the HC to the players in positional meetings and certainly would not consider grumbling up the chain of command to Jerry about what Garrett might be doing wrong.

I think I have said this a number of times, but let me say it again.  Football is the sport that most resembles the military in the structure of command or authority.  If you undermine it, you risk the pyramid of command crumbling - which it has here a number of times in different ways (Ray Sherman, Brian Stewart, John Garrett, Rob Ryan).   Name a head coach, and then, like most high school coaches, give him the right to go find the staff he deems fit to serve under him.

What 2nd or 3rd year player do you think could really make an impact and come into their own like Sean Lee or Bruce Carter?
Kelton

So, 2011 and 2012 draft picks who have not broken out yet, but I think are candidates to do so this year?

Well, the list is short, and shorter because of Tyrone Crawford's injury.  But, the 3 I really like from last year that did not have much in 2012 would be Ronald Leary, James Hanna, and Matt Johnson.  I absolutely loved Hanna by the end of last season in the flashes that we saw.  He is a matchup nightmare and even though they took Gavin Escobar, these things have a way of working themselves out to getting talented players on the field.

The other 2, Leary who I profiled here back in May of 2012 and Johnson who I did the same for here both represent players who really interest me quite a bit.  For Leary, his technique and awareness were not ready for the NFL last fall and for Johnson, his hamstrings were a nightmare.  If they have taken strides, we should start to see them in these preseason games and they, of course, are both players at positions of extreme thinness.  Hit on either of them and there will be big celebrations in the front office.

Look for them to emerge in these preseason games and we will visit about the performances on Monday in this same space.

Happy Football.

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Oxnard Blog: Competition Spots On Offensive Line

As we speed towards the first preseason contest of 2013, you are hearing every day about guys like David Arkin and Ron Leary pushing through and having a legitimate shot at a starting spot along the offensive line.

Forgive me, but I won't take any of these reports seriously for another several weeks.  And perhaps, even then.

We all need to remember a few things about the first few weeks of camp.  1) there isn't much along the lines of real news - meaning, with a multitude of reporters and a daily opportunity to talk with the coach at his press briefing, everything you hear will not constitute an actual story.  Rather, what the media either perceives to be a potential story or in most cases, nothing at all.

And more importantly, 2) Late July and August is a time to take it very slow with veterans.  This allows younger players a chance to "run with the 1s" and that allows for them to be noticed.  If they do well, then people project their ideas in the media of how this could materialize.  But, coaches don't always feel this way.  They just know they have practices to run while Jay Ratliff is getting healthy and need bodies to make practice even possible.  But, lining up for a team practice on a Tuesday in July and lining up against the Giants on September 8th is a completely different animal.

Training camp is often for experimenting with options and possibilities, but most of what you read is not real.  Most of what you read is true only in the sense that we need "22 starters" in this practice and as of July 30, this is our 22.  That does not have any bearing on September 8th.  When push comes to shove, and when the games truly matter, then and only then will you see the spots which are actually open to competition.

So, is David Arkin a real possibility to even make the roster? - something which would be a great accomplishment for a guy still hoping to play his 1st snap in the NFL in what would be his 3rd season.  Maybe.  But, I don't buy for one second that he is actually in the mix to start. Remember, this is the guy who the Cowboys were routinely scratching last season when Derrick Dockery was playing, despite having almost nothing left.  Then, Nate Livings did a very solid job at left guard in 2012 and I see him as an easy starter in Week 1 if all things are equal health-wise.  He had his moments, but overall, Livings is the least of their issues on the offensive line.  Could he be upgraded?  Sure.  Could he be upgraded by anything on their roster?  I don't see it in 2013.

Now, right guard is another story.  I have no issues at all with figuring out an alternative to Mackenzy Bernadeau there, and that is where one might project some solution from Ronald Leary (who I want to see in preseason action prove that he has developed mentally to the NFL game), Phil Costa, or Arkin.   Bernadeau is nothing special from what 2012 taught us, and represents a spot where the Cowboys need better along the offensive line.  So, as you are watching the preseason, key in that Livings is likely a starter if his body is holding up and that they need to figure out who the best of the rest of that group is to handle the other guard spot.  The outside chance that Travis Frederick plays guard and Costa handles center is still on the board, but it sure seems that Frederick is already taking to the center responsibilities which will use his mental upside to make line calls and to make sure the Cowboys are picking up their blitzes properly.

Looking back at 2012, there is no question that in pass protection the achilles heel came from 2 spots that both could be pointed back to the mental aspect of line play.  They were blitz pickup and stunt pickups.  In particular, when teams decided to run stunts and games at the Cowboys, the offensive line could just not make sure that each player was switching in an easy and timely fashion.  We saw this again and again and with players developing better continuity this can go away.  But, this is the time of year to solve that issue and that is why you want everyone available.

But, where we should really focus - hamstring willing - is the battle at right tackle.  Here, the frustrating Doug Free and Jermey Parnell should be locked in a real tussle to determine who will join Tyron Smith as bookends for the Cowboys line.  Trouble is, we are still waiting for Parnell to be available due to his hamstring and this is not helping his chances.

Last December, Parnell was allowed to basically rotate at right tackle with Free after the incumbent had a disastrous night against the Eagles in which he surrendered 2 sacks to Brandon Graham and 2 penalties for good measure.  This was one of his worst performances in a season that had several games Free would like to forget - Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Chicago come quickly to mind as well.

He committed 17 penalties, which led the NFL at his position, and also conceded 6 sacks, 4 QB hits, and 41 QB hurries.  It was clear that he lost confidence and when a tackle loses confidence, he then becomes reactive rather than proactive.  Free also lacks some of the top level strength which you would prefer, and was never able to drop his anchor against stronger pass rushers and would get into trouble there.

And that is why Parnell is so interesting.  Parnell only played 267 snaps last year (compared with Free over 1,000), but when he played he demonstrated superior strength and had very few issues.  He first was thrust into action when Smith was hurt in the Cleveland game and was inserted into a game where the Cowboys OL was already under siege.  That game was not his best work, but as he got acclimated, he became a real candidate to overtake Free.

In the final 4 games, they rotated the right tackle spot where Parnell was given the 2nd and 4th possessions in each half of those games.  They stuck to the recipe, save for late in games where they altered the plan one time and left Free in there.  Honestly, Parnell did very well, but Free also picked up his game quite a bit. It makes you wonder about rotations - something defensive lines always do, but offensive lines never do.  The freshness late in the game always is given as a distinct advantage for the defense, so why wouldn't the offense try to counter it with the same tactic?  Maybe this is a development for the sport in the next decade.

In watching all of Parnell's snaps recently, I felt very optimistic about his 2013 prospects.  The Cowboys made a very wise signing of Parnell in 2012 for 3 years for $4 million and have him at a wonderful salary.  This also put them in a fine leverage position with Doug Free and now you can better understand how they were so relaxed with the issue last spring.  They liked Parnell to start at right tackle over Free, but that would require Parnell showing up healthy and ready in Oxnard, something they are still waiting for.

When they are both healthy, it seems that this is a very close battle.  Parnell is so big and strong that getting around his edge is very difficult.  He is also quite strong in run blocking as long as the player he is assigned to is close to him.  Where Parnell gets into trouble is when he needs to get to he 2nd level and get his mitts on a smaller, quicker player.  There, he resembles Frankenstein a bit, and this is a department where Free has a distinct advantage.  But, for me, that is not enough to compensate for pass protection and Parnell's ability to stay out of penalty troubles.

But, you cannot have a competition without 2 players showing up for it, and that leads us back to the Parnell hamstring.  He is supposedly a week away, and we will see about that.  But, if you want thoughts on the opening day offensive line, it is Smith-Livings-Frederick and then, the battle at right guard and Free, until Parnell proves he has taken the spot.

But, as far as I can tell from 2012 tape, Parnell is the better right tackle.  He simply has to show it.

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Cowboy 2012 - The Offense That Needed To Change

I was asked by one of you to review the final results of Decoding Garrett 2012.  For those new to this space, you may be interested in knowing that since 2008, we have catalogued each offensive snap of the Cowboys from a standpoint of personnel group and then what type of play it was (run or pass).  This helps us track the progress of the offense in greater detail than your average analysis piece, but more importantly, it helps us compare apples to apples when looking at how the team is doing offensively.

Given that play calling has been delegated to Bill Callahan in 2013, we do have the opportunity to re-name this study, but I do think since Garrett is still the mastermind behind the offense and the man sitting at the head of the table when game plans are designed, we likely will keep it just the same.

For those who are new, the reason we look at the offense from a personnel grouping point of view, is that it replicates the actual discussions that the coaches actually have - rather than this fantasy football viewpoint that many fans obsess over this time of year.  If you play fantasy football, that is all fine - millions do, but it has very little use from a "real football" standpoint.

Teams do not care about personal statistics and they understand how a player drawing coverage is just as valuable to the big picture as his teammate who is making all of the catches as a direct beneficiary of the player who is drawing the coverage.  Dez Bryant, in other words, can really help the team with a 2-catch performance, but his fantasy owners will be angry.  Here, in this space, we don't care at all about fantasy football implications.  There are plenty of places on the internet for you to get that information and analysis.

Here, we are attempting to see what the real performances mean, what Jason Witten's coverage means to Bryant, what play-action passing does to the safeties, and what a real running game could do to the linebackers in helping free up the shallow routes.  

It also keeps us from getting caught up in the raw numbers of statistics and how misleading the Cowboys yardage totals were in 2012 and how meaningless they truly were in terms of the win-loss totals.

Garrett cannot believe that his offense was one of the more productive offenses in the NFL.  There is simply no way he believes that. 

Incidentally, the 376 points they scored in 2012 ranks them 10th in the NFC out of 16 teams.  That is 1 point better than the Bears, 4 points better than the Lions.  And exceedingly more productive than the Panthers, Rams, Eagles, or Cardinals.  So there is that. 

They were 6th in the entire NFL in yardage, but I think most of us watched enough Cowboys football this year to see that much of that came during abnormally long stretches of "garbage time" football that the Cowboys offered in a number of home blowout losses.

Regardless of the results of 2012 and the reasons the Cowboys compiled impressive and hollow production numbers, the point is that they did move the ball with the effectiveness of a playoff team, and yet missed the playoffs.  Most times and in most places, it then is time to blame the defense.  Not here.  We remained steadfast in the idea that the Cowboys offense - with very acceptable levels of health all season - was as frustrating and ineffective as it has been under Garrett.

They had garbage time yards and that was pretty much the sum total of the year.  More from what we wrote in February:

 overall, with roughly 3 games where you say the offense did what it needed to do (at NY, at Balt, and Pittsburgh) and 13 other games where the offense needed to show more than what it did to get good grades, I have very little use for hearing where it ranked in yards and points.  Granted, in some of those 13, the Cowboys showed great grit and determination, but nobody would confuse will with a fantastic offensive performance.  And least they shouldn't.  

This offense was almost completely spared of injuries (comparatively speaking) and yet did not live up to the resources invested in it by any stretch of the imagination.  Looking at boxscores and totaling numbers is fun, but meaningless if you are constantly falling behind and then facing prevents to catch up.  Those numbers don't matter at all. 

I appreciate the man defending his performance and thereby, his job security, but I found his optimistic appraisal of 2012 and the offense's performance to be misleading and I bet he would agree once he dug a little deeper - which I know he has in private.

Below are the final numbers from a standpoint of production per personnel grouping.  I assume everyone is up to speed on the definition of each of the groups, but if you are not, please click on this link and read up.

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass
11	72	359	48-233	24-126
12	143	767	65-251	78-516
13	27	125	19-84	8-41
21	121	820	66-286	55-534
22	73	272	58-165	15-107
23	35	57	31-53	4-4
S01	28	159	0-0	28-159
S10	1	0	0-0	1-10
S11	479	3141	46-188	433-2953
S12	42	255	1--1	41-256
Totals	1029	5967	335-1256	694-4731

Granted, that is a lot of numbers.  And without explanation, it can certainly be confusing.  So, just direct your attention to "S11" which is their default setting for the 2-minute drill, 3rd Down offense, and of course, the "we are way behind and need to pass every down to have any chance" offense.  And, as you can see, that was nearly half of their snaps and over half of their production from last year.  

And that is very bad.

We elaborated on the evils of S11 in this study which looked at 6 years of the Garrett offense from back in the spring.

Now, let's look at the same chart from above, except below, we will show you the yards per play in each category to show the production levels for each situation.

Package	Plays	Yards	Run - Avg	Pass - Avg
11	72	359	48 - 4.85	24 - 5.25
12	143	767	65 - 3.86	78 - 6.62
13	27	125	19 - 4.42	8 - 5.13
21	121	820	66 - 4.33	55 - 9.71
22	73	272	58 - 2.84	15 - 7.13
23	35	57	31 - 1.71	4 - 1.00
S01	28	159	0 - 0.00	28 - 5.68
S10	1	0	0 - 0.00	1 - 10.00
S11	479	3141	46 - 4.09	433 - 6.82
S12	42	255	1 - -1.00	41 - 6.24
Totals	1029	5967	335 - 3.75	694 - 6.82

"Now this shows the performances with a bit better clarity. If you look at the running averages in the "21", "22", and "23" packages, where the Cowboys ran 155 runs for only 504 yards for only 3.25 yards per run, you now see why they don't have use for a fullback anymore. They were awful running with a fullback. Not saying it is all Lawrence Vickers fault, but rather that defenses would stack the line when Vickers was in the game and the Cowboys OL had no answer for the physical run defenses."

They also spent very little time in an "under center" offense, which then prevents from ever using play action passing or a balanced offense at all.

So, there is a review of the 2012 offense.  Don't be fooled by the rankings or the yardages or the fantasy football points.  This offense was very poor and needs to get better.

They know this and now look forward to their all new and hopefully improved look in 2013.

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Bag Of Pucks - July 8

I don't really know how to start this post-draft, post-trade, post-free agency, and post-vacation update on the Dallas Stars offseason as it develops, so let's just dive right in and make the very exciting public declaration:

After several years of not being sure if the Stars were serious, it appears that we now have a hockey organization that is trying to do everything in its power to compete and to use its resources to work its way up the ladder in the NHL game of thrones.

This is most exciting.

Now, before we get carried away, that shift in posture does make me want to defend the work of the predecessors of Jim Nill and his new staff.  It is a completely different job description that he is being given than that of Joe Nieuwendyk or even Les Jackson/Brett Hull.  Those guys were running a franchise that was either bankrupt, close to bankrupt, or trying to emerge from being bankrupt for most or all of their runs in the post-Doug Armstrong era.  They were seldom given the ability to make bold strokes, almost never players in free agency (at least for those that teams actually desired), and if they ever made one poor move (Sean Avery, James Neal) than they were never able to fix it with subsequent moves because they had no more resources to serve as an eraser.

You simply must understand that any personnel man in any sport is not going to be perfect, or even close.  The gold standard for perfection these days in Dallas-Fort Worth is clearly Jon Daniels.  Daniels, as many will confirm, had his hands dirtied with a number of poor deals with San Diego (the Adam Eaton deal), Chicago (Danks for McCarthy), and Washington (Brad Wilkerson) before finally starting to get things when Mark Teixeira set everything in the right direction.  But, it was trial and error.  It was swing and miss.  It was a guy given the leeway to make a mistake and then fix it.  The Stars brass has not been given the benefit of the doubt in a long, long time.  That was the way it was and that time appears to be over (we think).  But, let's not allow our common sense to be overruled by the knee jerk idea that Nieuwendyk just didn't know what he was doing.  He had no resources and really, no chance.  I believe that he will recover from this situation and have a fine career moving forward.

Thankfully, when he was fired, new owner Tom Gaglardi had to decide if the time had arrived to pour resources into the situation, hire "his guy", and get serious about winning rather than surviving.  He went and got Jim Nill, and now we are seeing the full flex of that muscle early on.  The Stars are trying to do exactly what I thought was the primary issue with the franchise when I wrote about this 2 weeks ago:

Looking at the Stars cupboards, they have a wonderful collection of players that seem to be talented and capable of playing in the NHL between the ages of 18-24.  They seem rather stacked in "solid" NHL talent and youth, thanks to the way the Nieuwendyk regime was able to flip assets for futures in the last two years.  

But, is there "elite" talent here?  Is there a Toews or a Kane or a Hossa or a Keith? I believe Jamie Benn has a chance to be that player and on many nights is already there.  

What else?  I am still holding out hope that Jamie Oleksiak can be a dominant top pairing defensemen when he has had enough time in the oven.  Brenden Dillon took such strides these last 3 years that I wonder if we are foolish to act like we know his ceiling.  Brett Ritchie has been described as a player with fantastic upside and there are other kids in the system that could be better than "solid".  But, as it stands, the bin marked "solid" appears to be full and in great shape.  But, the bin that allows a team to compete for Cups is marked "elite" and while there might be some potential in that bin, for the most part it is where much of the league sits normally - close to empty.  

They know this.  They know that they have lots of 6's and 7's, but they need a 9 or a 10 to make this thing really sing.  Of course, that is like a football team saying that they are a Tom Brady away from being a great team.  That is both obvious and ridiculous - so is pretty much everyone.  But, it is often true. 

Elite talent generally requires that you pick #1 or #2 or certainly in the Top 5 picks of a draft to get someone like that.  In Chicago's case, Kane was #1, Toews was #3 overall.  Like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, and many of the best of the best, they are all gone very early at the top of the draft.  If you never pick up top, then, like many other sports, you have to either get lucky or try to win with a collection of solid pieces, but never have the very best players in the game.  In can be done, but it surely is not very likely.  

Which leaves the Stars with some interesting questions in a year where they have lots of money, lots of picks, and lots of holes on their squad.  Do they combine these resources to go for a bold strike up the draft board?  

And here we sit, 14 days later, and the Stars have put 2 potentially elite talents in the middle of the roster.  Wow.  I cannot stress how awesome this makes me feel about the future here.

First, at the draft, they were able to navigate around a number of issues and concerns to nab what many agree is a top 3-5 talent in the 2013 NHL Draft and take Valeri Nichushkin with the 10th pick.  As you know from reading my draft preview, he was my #1 hope going into the weekend, so much so that I would have happily entertained trading up to go get him.  But, the Stars and Nill held their ground and did not panic.  They knew that KHL threats made him less desirable for teams up the board and if they were lucky he might fall right into their laps.  He did, they have already signed him, and there have been some who have nabbed him as a prime candidate to win the Calder Trophy for NHL rookie of the year.  Imagine that in a Stars uniform.

Then, a few days later, after rumors had flown on draft weekend that the #10 pick might be able to be the pick to go get Tyler Seguin from Boston, the Stars landed the 21-year old talent without parting with that #10 pick at all.  In fact, Seguin and Rich Peverley arrive with the ability to be 2 of the top 3 centers for the Stars when the season opens in the same trade.  Yes, parting with Loui Eriksson hurts, as does Reilly Smith, Matt Fraser, and Joe Morrow (we hardly knew ye), but in effect, they flipped Brenden Morrow for Peverley, and Loui Eriksson and 2 kids for Seguin - a guy who everyone who follows hockey agrees that he possesses elite ability and just needs a chance to be a center with tons of ice to work it all out.

You want elite?  How about a 18 year old winger who looks as fast and strong as Rick Nash?  How about a 21-year old center who is locked up for 6 years and can instantly allow you to slide Jamie Benn to his left for the next half-dozen years?  This is amazing.

Make no mistake - there are no sure things here.  Boston is telling us that Seguin is an underachieving party animal who should not be allowed to Tweet.  Russian stars do use the KHL leverage as a tremendous crowbar when contract time arrives and they can certainly go into a dark place where nobody can deal with them.  This could go horribly wrong.

But, the Stars now have 2 world class players who might be the two most talented youngsters they have had in their group since....they played in Minnesota?  I don't mean to get carried away, but let's remember this isn't a franchise that has ever had nor wanted to have players this young carry the franchise since the days of Mike Modano and Derian Hatcher could barely grow whiskers.

But now, joining the old man, soon to be 24-year old Benn, the Stars have the makings of a team that can roll out fantastic forwards with world class skill - potentially all on the same line and power play.

They have to grow them right and slowly, but they finally have the pieces in place.  They also have a top 10 payroll for the 2013-14 season with some other acquisitions that will prove helpful, including Edmonton's Shawn Horcoff and Dan Ellis to backup Kari Lehtonen.

We can visit about their impact sometime soon.

But for today, please understand that while many people are squawking about the relative merits of a twitter account that Seguin operates with varying levels of effectiveness, I am celebrating the on-ice impacts of Valeri and Tyler and that the Stars now have a new day dawning.

They have found more "elite".  And apparently are looking for even more.

This is most exciting.

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Bill Callahan Is Now Calling The Plays - And Yes, It Matters

The delivery of the news is "uniquely Jerry" where communication skills seem forever stuck in reverse, and complete with comedy ensuing.  Think about the true joy of being a principle member (Say, Bill Callahan or Jason Garrett) of a rather significant news story and surrounded by the leering press and to be asked about questions where you are not sure whether or not your own boss has spilled the beans without warning moments ago.  You are tip-toeing through a mine field and are careful not to step on the toes of colleagues who have been demoted or promoted and wish to handle things with honesty (assuming that is how you naturally roll), but realize you have to amend your normal sensibilities to comply with the ol' "Way Things Are At Valley Ranch as Long As Jerry Is Running The Show."

It surely should also be understood to all involved that Jason Garrett, the mostly-nuetered head coach of this operation, knew what he was getting into many years ago when he elected to stay in this situation out of some loyalty to either Jerry Jones, the Cowboys brand, or both, rather than to start with a clean slate in either Baltimore or Atlanta.  He was made the highest-paid assistant coach in the league and the head coach-in-waiting to stay in Dallas and work his magic further.  But, with that would come this incredibly odd working situation that he must navigate through, despite looking rather helpless and powerless when it comes to many basic decisions that are often given to a head coach.  For all we know, it is possible that Garrett knew this needed to happen and blessed it, but the fact that he still argues for keeping the discussion in-house, when his boss has already decided to make sure the microphones knew the information, further reduces any perception of power that Garrett may hold.

But, let's not bury the lead here.  Yes, the way information is made public is both frustrating and unconventional, but it is the information itself that truly matters.  If we weren't sure before yesterday who was the de facto head coach, then we haven't been paying attention.

The story itself is that after 6 years of interrupted control of the Cowboys offense, we are getting that fresh set of eyes that I petitioned for back in December and January:

Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense.  I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has.  You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time. 

6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them.  This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit. 

This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has.  In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.  Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received.  The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB.  When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything.  The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything.  If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do.  Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football.  But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.

Again, for those who are new to my thoughts on how offense works, a team doesn't run the ball because running is the only way to win (Emmitt getting 20 carries is usually the result of a Cowboys winning game-plan, not the root of it), it threatens to run the ball to make passing easier and blitzing harder.  A balanced offense is the most fundamentally efficient way for coaches to put the playmakers in advantageous positions on the field, rather than draped with coverage.  And if your playmakers are the beneficiaries of uncertainty in the defense of what is coming on this next play, then everyone wins.

If Garrett hasn't been able to exploit that, and if "12 Personnel" is the base offense, then perhaps there isn't a true fit with Garrett and the principles that are the whole point behind multiple tight ends to begin with.  12 Personnel, which we will elaborate on further very soon, is a grouping that is trying to make you pick your poison.  If you wish to keep base defense on the field, then 12 shreds you with mismatches of linebackers trying to run with tight ends.  If you switch to nickel or dime, then 12 destroys you with a running game that forces defensive backs to deal with much bigger run blockers.  You cannot "guess" correctly, because often 12 is based on how you decide to defend it with your personnel on defense.  There is almost no other grouping like this, as "11" is always going to draw nickel defense and "21" is always going to draw base (because teams don't mind linebackers on a true fullback).  But, "12" is that perfect combo - provided you have the tight ends to do it - where there is no right answer for the defense.

We do know that Bill Callahan has traditionally valued power running in his previous stops.  Oakland, in particular was a team that would balance things up pretty well, and sometimes err on the side of running too much.  However, we do wonder how all of this info balances with the narrative that Jerry has voiced for months now, that Tony Romo might be designing much of this offense, anyway.  So, will Callahan have the power to bully the gameplan to his liking? or is it Romo? or is it Garrett? or....

Anyway, back to the thoughts in January:

I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes.  I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.  

So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it.  I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line.  I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.  

Change is good sometimes in the NFL.  Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on.  I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off.  And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.  

I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards. 

I am fine with trying something new. 

Many people are going to be citing statistics about 2012 that are just flat-out misleading.  Context means everything when you work with numbers, and since it is too complicated and time-consuming to apply context, most people will just google "total offense" for a year and assume all details cancel each-other out over a season.

But, in another study we did back in February that can be read here, we showed how numbers are empty when you are gaining them down 28-3:

I will concede that it is difficult to define "garbage time" sometimes.  Was it garbage time when the Cowboys were down 23-0 to the Giants at halftime?  Or, 28-3 to the Redskins at the half on Thanksgiving?  And if so, didn't the Cowboys almost win the Giants game and at least make the Redskins sweat a bit? 

I would say that arguing this, though, is missing the point of trying to identify the Cowboys offensive ability in 2012.

My point, would be this:  In 2012, the Cowboys' would spend all week designing a game plan that they thought would best work against their opponents.  Then, at game-time, they would find that their game plan was completely ineffective and scrap it.  This would happen at halftime sometimes, 3rd Quarter other times, and even sometimes well before halftime.  When they would scrap their game plan (a balanced attack with multiple personnel groupings and formations) and go exclusively to a 2-minute drill offense that was 100% shotgun and 100% 11 personnel, they would then find the ability to get yards and ultimately, points.  

The score in the game here is interesting, but not the trigger.  The trigger is that moment when Garrett and/or Romo says to the other, "this isn't working.  Let's do what we know works." 

And that happened over and over and over in 2012.  Especially at home.  The following is a look at the amount of time the Cowboys had the ball with the lead in their 8 home games.  The information is accurate and impossible to believe.

Opponent	Time with the lead
Tampa Bay	17:58
Chicago	0:00
New York	1:08
Cleveland	1:16
Washington	3:46
Philadelphia	1:52
Pittsburgh	10:36
New Orleans	0:00
Total	36:36

That is right.  36 minutes and 36 seconds the entire year.  This is a team that fell behind early almost every single home game.  Why?  Because their game-plan week after week was not working. 

Why?  I could offer 100 ideas.  But, the point is, they weren't working.  And, from there, when Romo and Garrett would take it and throw it in the trash, that is when the Cowboys were able to turn these games into competitive contests by going back to Shotgun-11 personnel.  Then, and only then, was this offense able to get anything done.  

Under center?  Rushing the ball?  Declaring run and getting a tough yard?  Under center and run play action and hit one over the top?  In all of these scenarios, 2012 was about as bad a year as Garrett has on record.

All this is being said without referencing the number of times in the 40 games as head coach where the Cowboys seemed to butcher a head coach decision.  Those issues with clock management, or challenge calls, or other high-leverage moments that seemed to add to Garrett's responsibilities in such a way where it all appeared to be too much for one guy to deal with.

Now, hypothetically, even though Jerry has told us all the reasons why Garrett should be calling plays in the past, this should allow further brain power and fresh perspective on what is usually 2 jobs that require every waking hour for 2 different smart football men.

Of course, the other, more cynical view is that now with 3 different former head coaches on the staff in Callahan, Rod Marinelli, and Derek Dooley (at the college level), along with Monte Kiffin, that the Cowboys are well equipped to replace Garrett in-season if they so choose, which is reminiscent of how he took over the duties at midseason in 2010 when Wade Phillips met a similar fate.

I was quite confused as to why this news item was so difficult to release, but in the end, I think it could be a great new way for the Cowboys offense to function.

Either way, I think 6 years is enough information to conclude that it would be difficult to argue that Garrett should have retained his authority in the offense.  A change has been long overdue.

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