Cowboys Mailbag - 9/13

On Fridays, we check for your emails and prepare briefly for the next opponent:

So, let's talk about the Chiefs briefly.  I readily admit that I would like to spend 2,000 words on the upcoming opponents like I used to, but the way we are doing the blog these days has put far more emphasis on the game behind than the game ahead and most seem to enjoy the Tuesday-Thursday breakdowns.  Unfortunately, that comes a bit at Friday's expense, so forgive me.

The Chiefs are a team that finished 2-14 last year and honestly have a bit of a history of being a team you "should beat", but everyone needs to get that out of their head.  This game is going to be a real test for the Cowboys offense.

In 2013, the Chiefs cleaned house again and hired an entire new football operation starting with John Dorsey who was very high on Ted Thompson's staff for a long time to be their general manager.  Then, Andy Reid to be the head coach.  But, the hire that will have the biggest impact on Sunday is Bob Sutton the defensive coordinator from the New York Jets.  What that means, is that we should expect the Chiefs defense to resemble the chaos that the Jets 3-4 has tried to throw down for many years with great success and in a stadium that is likely to be shaking on Sunday, this will greatly test this new offensive line that is gaining confidence of its own.

The Chiefs, as has been documented, has significantly more talent than your average 2-14 team, and many - including myself - have projected them as a wildcard team in the AFC.  They have elite quality defenders in Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry, and Brandon Flowers.  Meanwhile, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe seem to be poised to be elite soon.  I remember disagreeing with the masses on Poe on draft day, and it looks like the Chiefs won this gamble.  They added free agent Mike Devito to play that 5-technique in this 2-gap defense and Sean Smith to play the opposite corner that was vacated a season ago by Brandon Carr.

I think this will be a fantastic evaluation game for Travis Frederick.  We have seen him make almost no mistakes since coming to Dallas, but now, with blitzes from every direction crossing up the protections and with a loud stadium and high pressure shotgun snaps, on top of a large nose tackle right on top of him, I think if Frederick gets out of this clean, we will have to be impressed.

Whereas the Giants seldom brought pressure and enjoyed dedicating more players to coverage, the Chiefs will likely do just the opposite, and perhaps this will mean a bigger role for Dez Bryant.  Make them pay for their blitzes.

Clearly, running the football is the way to quiet a high-pressure environment and to settle your offense down and this will be a key.  The Chiefs - if their first game is any indication - are going to try to smother you in pressure.  Now, the Cowboys need to demonstrate that this isn't Blaine Gabbert and the Jacksonville Jaguars they are dealing with.

On the other side of the ball, I am interested to see the Cowboys deal with Jamaal Charles - who we will assume is in reasonable health.  He has a competent offensive line and they can run the ball.  But, now they have a coach who has never really believed in running it, so we are a bit fuzzy on how those two ideas will mesh long term.

Do not kid yourself about Alex Smith.  Sure, he is never going to fully live down being #1 overall and being taken ahead of Aaron Rodgers, but he has turned a corner in his career.  Since the start of 2011, he has a record of 21-5-1 and has 32 Touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a QB rating of 95.1 and a 7.25 Yards Per Attempt - ahead of guys like Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler.

He will not beat himself and he will certainly take the high percentage option, which makes him a real fit with Andy Reid.  Dwayne Bowe will cause matchup issues and Donnie Avery underneath should be slippery.

I have no delusions about the difficulty of this game.  It will be a real battle and one where points might be difficult to get.  Don't forget Week 2 in Seattle in 2012.  I have the Cowboys, but barely, and in a low-scoring Dan Bailey-winning affair.


Now, on to your emails!

Hey Bob-
Any chance you can break down the special teams rosters for the first game?  Last year that was helpful to get an idea on why the team makes certain players inactive on game day.
Marvin

Absolutely!  You know I keep a notebook on all of this sort of thing, so let's start with the Cowboys inactives in the Giants game:

The Dallas Cowboys have declared DL Anthony Spencer, OG Brian Waters, LB Caesar Rayford, WR Cole Beasley, SS Danny McCray, OT Darrion Weems, RB Lance Dunbar inactive for Week 1.

Now, clearly, we can explain Spencer, Waters, McCray, and Dunbar away as health issues that kept them from being at the top of their game.  In the case of McCray, he is the type of guy who is only on this team to help with special teams, so we know he will be active when he is healthy, or he won't really be on the roster for long.

That leaves Rayford, Beasley, Weems, and perhaps Dunbar as the guys you might say are roster surplus for now and if they are not making your game-day roster - then they are on the fringes roster and the most likely to be freed up if something better comes along.  We have had these discussions about Cole Beasley and Lance Dunbar in 2012.  If they cannot cover kicks and punts up to the standards the team has, then they will have to be very special in the offense or there is just not room for them in the NFL level.  A guy like Dwayne Harris can do so much more for you if he can handle 20 special teams plays AND then get a dozen snaps on the offense.

Anyway, with that said, here are the week 1 special teams units - Pay special attention to the players that show up on all 4 groups.  Click each to enlarge:

KICKOFF RETURN

KICKOFF COVERAGE

PUNT COVERAGE

PUNT RETURN

Again, after looking at something like this, you se that it is vital for a guy to show he can handle anything the team asks of him if he wants to hang around and get on the field.  DeVonte Holloman, Kyle Bosworth, Jeff Heath, Ernie Sims, Phillip Tanner, and  Edgar Jones are what you would call the core of these groups to start the season.  McCray will knock someone off these groups, but continuity is important to find a comfort zone where everyone knows what to expect of those around them to either spring a big return or keep them from happening.  And make no mistake, KC can make you sweat with Dexter McCluster back deep.

=====

Hi Bob,Thanks for all the great posts you do. I would love to know what books or other resources you would recommend for learning how to watch offensive and defensive line play.David Green

Well, this is a question I get periodically, and I will tell you that there has never been a better time to be a football fan who really enjoys learning about schemes and strategy.  It is a growing group and there information is excellent.  The more you learn about football the less you care about the soap opera discussions and actually dive into talking ball from a standpoint of what wins games.  I have spent about 8 years with almost no fantasy football in my life and tons of coaching/strategy books and DVDs and even coaching clinics and feel like - even though I will never coach - that I have learned the game on a much deeper level and I can't get enough.

The two books I would order today if this is interesting to you are these:  

Pat Kirwan's Take Your Eyes Off The Ball and Chris Brown's the Essential Smart Football

Once you read those and want more, there is no end to the material.  You can find clinics and speeches from the greatest minds in coaching all over the internet and it is fascinating.  I highly recommend it.

Email me anytime at sturm1310@me.com and maybe you will be in next week's group.

Enjoy the game and we will see you back here on Monday.

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Decoding Callahan: Week 1 - New York Giants

Before we get to the Giants win, a brief introduction:

For those of you new to this blog or this series or even this type of conversation, allow me to welcome you to Week 1 in what is now a 7-season series on tracking - with incredible detail - the Cowboys offense on a week-to-week basis.  In this Tuesday series, which is certainly not for everyone, we will try to turn over every stone and try to learn whatever we can learn about what the Cowboys like to do, try to do, and avoid doing.

And that is an exercise that is to replicate on some level what the Cowboys do every week.  There is this belief that you see what a coach truly believes by what his game plan looks like.  That is untrue.  His game-plan is not an idealistic view of the sport or his beliefs about deploying players in a certain system.  Rather, a game plan is a combination of your considering your strengths, your weaknesses, your opponent, and your situation, and decide what gives your side the best opportunity to win.  That should never be confused with what you want to do.  You may want to run the wishbone.  But, you don't have the personnel to do that.  You may want to run the zone read.  If only you had a guy like Colin Kaepernick.  You look at the pieces you have left on the chess board, then carefully consider your opponent's piece.  From that, you come up with a plan.  Sometimes, it is a good plan.  Sometimes, it is a plan that requires good fortune along the way.  But, it is, you believe, the best one you have available.  And that is what coaches do on Tuesday across the league.

During the week, they install the plan, using different days to install different elements (base offense, 3rd down package, red zone), and by game-time you have an idea of what you believe will work.  It changes dramatically from week to week, with everything connected, but evolving.  You put things on film to distract your opponents, sometimes.  You want them to waste valuable time preparing for you by working on stopping something you may never even run.  But, they must because they have to be prepared for what you might do.  And you, as an offensive coordinator, must be prepared to go after your opponent's weaknesses, but remain inside your strengths.  Not always easy.

So, if you continue down this road with us, we will look back at the last game from a number of angles, and try to dissect what they did well, what they did poorly, and what interests us on a level of innovation.  The Cowboys are moving from Jason Garrett to Bill Callahan - and so will we.  What has been called Decoding Garrett is now Decoding Callahan.  We know that it is still the Garrett offense, but there will be some adjustments.  We also know that the GM is committed to multiple tight ends being used on a regular basis and has instructed the offense to run accordingly.  So, we will spend time looking at that.

Again, this is digging deeper than most studies, so I understand if this is a lot of information.  But, if this interests you on some level, stick with it, and it will start to make more sense as the weeks go on.

And now, on to the Giants game.

The Cowboys entered this game with a very unsettled idea of what their offensive line was going to look like.  They knew their left tackle and center were locked down in Tyron Smith and Travis Frederick, but even there, Frederick was playing his very first NFL game.  Usually, your center's first NFL action would frighten a team a bit, but he has been so solid and the rest of the line has been so chaotic that Frederick has actually been the last thing they have worried about.  It is almost like he he conducts himself as a 5 year veteran and seems to play like one, too.

But, who was going to play each guard position and right tackle was a game of musical chairs.  In the end, Ron Leary also made his NFL debut at left guard, Mackenzy Bernadeau was chosen to keep right guard warm for Brian Waters who is shaking off the retirement dust, and that pushed Doug Free back in front of Jermey Parnell at right tackle for the time being.

To make matters more unsettled, they would be facing a defensive front which has bullied them through the years and this time the New York Giants would not be at full strength with a recovering Jason Pierre Paul, but would still be treated with respect in game planning from the Cowboys.

As we look at the tactics and results, we see the Cowboys trying to make sure that all of their looks are based around the idea of using 2 and sometimes 3 Tight Ends.  The reasons for this "12" or "13" personnel looks are elaborated in greater detail in some of our past write-ups, but perhaps best demonstrated on the 2 touchdowns to Jason Witten during the game.  A proper TE, and we believe all 3 are pass catching threats (Escobar needs to prove it, Hanna needs to prove it again) is a matchup issue for LBs because of speed and DBs because of size.  On the 1st Touchdown, they tried to run a linebacker with him and the Cowboys made them pay.  Then, they switched to a smaller DB, and Romo fit it in a tight window and Witten used his size to make room.

The idea with this and just about any scheme is the same:  Make the defense make a choice.  And when they do, present them with proof that there is no right answer.  Either way, multiple tight ends can make you pay.  For much more on this concept, check out what I put here back in June.

In other news, the Cowboys ran out 2 ideas that we have not seen in our 6 years of data.  One is rather straight forward and uses the multiple tight end look.  It is called "S13" which is the same 1 RB, 3 TE, grouping, but for decades that has meant a short-yardage ground game exclusive battering ram.  But, the S means Shotgun, and the Cowboys don't intend on using S13 for running.  They know that defenses defend 13 personnel by bringing in an extra "big" or two (Linebackers) and take off a DB because you could run.  So, now you have your run defense on and the Cowboys use S13 to spread those big guys out and take advantage of them in 1-on-1 pass situations.  I love the concept, because if they stay small and play nickel, then you audible into a run play and you should be able to physically bully them in this game of cat and mouse.  Here is a look at it.

And again, remember that in 6 seasons, the Cowboys haven't done anything like this.  This is a new use of resources that only had 2 snaps on Sunday, but you can believe the Chiefs are asking how they will defend this.  And, the more Escobar and Hanna make plays, the bigger this can become.  If it is still just Witten, then this won't go anywhere.

The 2nd item that was noticeable on Sunday was the use of the pistol.  4 times, they rolled out this look:

Now, the pistol is the rage all around the league and I could not possibly describe it anything like what Chris Brown of Smart Football did last December, so if you want the entire breakdown, visit that.

But, it basically combines the good parts of the shotgun (your QB can still read the defense and see in pre snap while not requiring a major drop back) with the good parts of being under center (your running back is still moving forward/downhill with speed when he receives the ball).  Shotgun in the past required the RB to take the ball at almost a full stop and this made running - especially with power - a major issue.

Notice, that Murray is still 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage which is basically the same as when Romo is under center (perhaps a half yard difference).  They ran the pistol 4 times with Murray getting 3 carries, but you can absolutely believe that the Cowboys can develop this without exposing Romo to hits.  Detroit in Week 1 ran some very interesting pistol looks with Matt Stafford and I can assure you that Peyton Manning, Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers have no plans on running much option read.  But, they can use the alignment to do what they do best.

Data from Week 1 vs New York Giants:

Now we are into the portion of the post that we will visit each week with data to see what we can see.  The Cowboys had decent field position and obviously were the beneficiaries of some takeaways to aid that.  They did not accomplish much on 1st Down as we see that in 25 2nd down opportunities, they were on average 2nd and 9.16.  This is a byproduct of too many offensive line penalties again.

3rd Down was a little rough, too.  We want that number approaching 50% to feel good.

Run-Pass	22-50
Starting Field Position	D 34
1st Down Run-Pass	12-20
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.16
2nd Down Run-Pass	9-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.66
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	1-14
3rd Down Conversions	5-15, 33%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.  Intern Tim is back with us this year and he has made some pleasing to the eye charts for us to see.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

The first thing that will jump out at anyone is how many times Romo threw the ball in the 1st half.  As you can see, other than the Witten TD down the seam, there was just nothing downfield.  The real theme from Sunday was that the Giants were dedicating "a man and a half" to Dez Bryant and forcing the Cowboys to look elsewhere because Bryant's normal downfield routes were going to be a tight squeeze.  So, you can force the ball into coverage (as Romo did once) or you can take underneath throws.  Look at all of the blue and see that almost none of his completions were more than 5 yards downfield - this also can be a way of helping your pass protection.  Don't hold the ball.

1ST HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

In the 2nd half, he was hurt, he had the lead, and he threw more downfield - but no real success.  The one deeper blue line below was a deep-in route to Terrence Williams.

2ND HALF PASSING CHART -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

And here we break out his primary target underneath, Miles Austin who played a ton in the slot.

Miles Austin Passing Chart -  (Red incomplete, Blue Completion, Yellow TD, Black INT)

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-New York Giants: 5 Run/7 Pass - 42% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives.

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass - 44% Run
2012 Total: 173 Drives - 76 Run/97 Pass - 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 44 Shotgun/71 Total Plays - 61.9%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
2012 Total - 565/1038 54%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

And now, a look at the efficiency of each personnel grouping.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

They said they wanted to run a lot of "12".  Well, 30 snaps if you combine 12 and S12, and 177 yards means that with that grouping they were able to find 5.9 yards a snap.  That is a very encouraging start against a defense that we think is decent.

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	3	8	2-3	1-5
12	18	87	9-33	9-54
13	5	23	3-11	2-12
21	0	0	0-0	0-0
22	1	5	0-0	1-5
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	3	13	0-0	3-13
S02	1	5	0-0	1-5
S11	27	78	4-15	23-63
S12	12	90	4-23	8-67
S13	2	14	0-0	2-14
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	72	323	22-85	50-238

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.


Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	5	0-0	1-5	1/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	2	14	0-0	2-14	1/0
S02	1	5	0-0	1-5	1/0
S11	11	33	1-8	10-25	1/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Other	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	15	57	1-8	14-49	4/0

And. one more feature.  How did NY Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell decide to rush the Cowboys.  We know the Giants love to generally just bring 4.  But, they got home a few times when they blitzed - partly because their 4 were not really bothering the Cowboys much.  As the game went on, the Giants were forced to bring more to get any pressure.  That is a very good sign, too.

Pass Rushers Against Dallas - 49 pass rush/blitz situations:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	1	0	0
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	9	2	3
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	4	1	0
Totals	0	14	3	3

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	7	0	1
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	0	2	0	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	0	3	2	1
Totals	0	12	2	2

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush
Short (0-5 Yds To Go)	0	2	1	1
Second Level (5-10 Yds To Go)	1	5	0	0
Open Field (10+ Yds To Go)	1	1	0	1
Totals	2	8	1	2

And, here are the full season numbers to date:

Pass Rushers	3 Rush	4 Rush	5 Rush	6 Rush	Total
1st Down	0	14 - 70%	3 -15%	3 - 15%	20 - 40%
2nd Down	0	12 - 75%	2 - 12%	2 - 12%	16 - 32%
3rd Down	2 - 15%	8 - 61%	1 - 7%	2 - 15%	13 - 26%
4th Down	0	0	0	0	0
Totals	2 - 4%	32 - 65%	6 - 12%	7 - 14%	49

That is a lot of data!

Thanks to our new contributor John Daigle for his work on the numbers and for his pie-charts that have been added.

This will all make more sense to you as we get a few games under our belt and find new wrinkles and establish patterns and such.

But, overall, despite yardages being modest and Romo not finding much downfield, I think with the offensive line showing reasonable protection ability and DeMarco finding holes on the ground, there is a lot to feel good about offensively heading to Week 2.  Adding Brian Waters should also help and next week they can start looking for more ways to work Dez Bryant into the proceedings.

A decent foundation is being built.

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Your 2013 Dallas Cowboys!

After giving the personnel department a few days to figure everything out, the Cowboys have finally settled on their week 1 roster.  For historical purposes, we will actually have to stick with the 53 men who the Cowboys turned into the league on Saturday at the 5 pm deadline, but as we said last week, a proper NFL roster is in the constant state of development and is never fully set.

In fact, once we get through the week 1 games, then a number of business thresholds are met.  For the vested veteran - a player with 4+ years of service time, his salary becomes guaranteed if he is on the 53 for Week 1.  This causes teams to have their eyes on a veteran but to not actually he bring him to town until September 9th, the day after their 1st game.  Players signed in that scenario may be signed under an arrangement where they make their salary only in weeks where they are on the roster.  That may not seem like an issue that is a big deal to many of us and worth the trouble, but to a team that is up against the cap (or has an in-season extension in mind for one of its pending free agents), it can free up quite a bit of needed 2013 dollars.

And, of course, once foot meets leather on Sunday Night, injuries start to happen that will continue to keep the personnel department busy and that roster in a constant state of flux.  It is the way the sport works.

But, now let's lock in that original 53 and the subsequent moves already made to look at how this thing shapes up here in 2013:

Final 53:


Quarterbacks (2):  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar

Tight Ends (5):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, Andre Smith, Dante Rosario

Wide Receivers (5): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley

Offensive Line (10)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, David Arkin, Darion Weems.

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen

Linebackers (5): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman

Cornerbacks (4): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb

Safety (6) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton, Jeff Heath

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur


From there, the following transactions have happened:

- Cowboys Place Nate Livings on Injured Reserve (roster to 52)
- Cowboys trade 6th in 2014 to KC for Edgar Jones, LB and 7th in 2014 (53)
- Cowboys trade Sean Lissemore to SD for 7th in 2014 (52)
- Cowboys claim Kyle Bosworth, LB from Giants (53)
- Cowboys trade Dante Rosario to Chicago for 7th in 2014 (roster sits at 52)

Also, they named their practice squad to open 2013:

- Alex Tanney, QB
- Jakar Hamilton, S
- Tim Benford, WR
- Danny Coale, WR
- Jason Vega, DE
- Micah Pellerin, S
- Cameron Lawrence, LB
- Ray Dominguez, G

They have room to add another body still - something likely to happen today - along the offensive or defensive lines.  But, we should give credit to the Cowboys for flipping bodies for picks.  In this cynical climate we live in regarding the Cowboys, we should never thumb our noses at acquiring picks.  They always have a chance to find something nice or to be used as future ammunition to move up in the draft for the right reasons.

As we break this thing down, I will draw your attention to a fun little info-graphic that the Cowboys website has made itself.  As we all know, 9 out of 10 astronauts endorse info-graphics as the learning tool of the future.

I think the moves over the weekend confirm some real issues with special teams that are being addressed.  Expect Bosworth and Jones to both step right in as special teams contributors and be on all kick and punt teams as early as Sunday Night.  Rosario was being kept for that it seems, but once they were offered something of substance by the Bears (and oddly, Joe DeCamilis' special teams), the Cowboys cashed in.

Quick thoughts on where the 53 sits - there are still major questions about how the offensive line will perform or even line up on Sunday.  It seems Ron Leary is ready to roll (or very close) and therefore, we might have Free returning to tackle, but it is tough to say.

However, the issues on this team remain up front.  If ever there was a feeling that they are one more injury away from disaster, I think you could use that with their Ratliff situation on the defensive line.  They have found some reasonable replacement ideas, but the quality is dropping quickly and any more bodies lost could cause the dam to break.  I was hoping one of their claims would be at defensive tackle, but they passed on Marvin Austin (waived by Giants) which tells us he must still not be healthy enough for Dallas to take a run at him.

Today is the player's off day as the coaches finally put the finishing touches on their game-plan.  Tomorrow, they welcome in the 53 (52) man roster and get to work with their first normal work-week of 2013.  They open with a divisional opponent that has beaten them 4 out of 4 trips to Arlington when the NY Giants come calling again.

There is no tip-toeing into this year.  The schedule advises the Cowboys to grab September - easily their easiest month in terms of first glance schedule evaluation - and build a strong record early for the first time in a while.

Since moving to the new Cowboys Stadium, they have started their seasons by allowing the rabbits to run away and hide:

2009: 2-2
2010: 1-3
2011: 2-2
2012: 2-2

If you follow the NFC East, you know that the Giants always seem to start 6-2 or so, so building a nice deficit is a habit that needs to be overcome.  And playing the Giants at home, at Kansas City, the Rams at home, and at the Chargers says that 3-1 in September should be reasonable plan.

And now, we get ready for the start.  Just 5 more days.

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Roster to 53 - Final Version

Every year I try this on the morning after the final preseason game.  It is my best attempt at locking down the Cowboys final 53-man roster.  We must be clear, here.  This is not my pick for the 53, but rather my attempt to figure out who they select as their 53.  There is a distinction that would affect a few players who I would not put on this team, but they disagree - and obviously, their opinion matters quite a bit more than mine.

Keep in mind, this requires an impossible task - crawling inside the head of the decision makers at Valley Ranch.  It also requires us to understand the cap rules that may serve as a tie-breaker as it pertains to such things as full salary eligibility if you are on the roster in Week 1, practice squad eligibility, and veteran minimums.  On top of all of that is the looming idea that there is significant dead money that could actually make the cap situation worse if they were to cut someone like Nate Livings (his number would grow from $2.4m to around $4.5 if you cut him).

Then, you need to detach your evaluations and consider how the Cowboys see a guy.  Which guy might be claimed if we cut him versus which guy might be able to slide through to our practice squad?  Which guy needs more developmental time because he can't help us now, but we don't want to throw him back in the ocean and let someone else catch him.

There are plenty of questions for every team, and our job gets tougher because we have to figure out what exactly Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones are thinking during this process, too.  That requires a skill that we may not possess.

Anyway, all of these projections should be discussed with 2 major things in mind.  1) I don't think this is difficult enough.  What that means is when you cut from 90 to 75 and then to 53, you hope that sooner or later you arrive at the conclusion that you have "too many NFL caliber players" and you can't keep them all.  You then wrestle at your final cuts, knowing that someone is going to snap up your leavings.  Unfortunately, because of a number of circumstances that have put the Cowboys in a dangerously shallow part of the depth pool, cutting to 53 is not hard.  It is also one that doesn't seem to risk too many of your cast-offs going to other teams as a gem that was not properly identified.

And that leads us to 2) this 53 man that they get to on Saturday will not be the 53 man on Wednesday when they all start the practice week for the Giants.  Because of the shallow depth and because of the needs on this team and the ease of the cuts, I fully expect the Cowboys to be looking carefully at several potential upgrades on their roster.  Offensive and defensive lines, in particular, with linebacker and safety also candidates for fresh bodies over the weekend via the waiver wire.  Some teams won't be shopping much.  I expect Dallas to be pretty active in making sure they are fortified, knowing that another team's 55th best player may be better than your 52nd best player.  You must fix that as soon as possible.

Now, using the chart that we printed for you on Wednesday, let's go through the positions and build this 53:

Quarterbacks (2): This is pretty straight-forward.  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton make the team.  I would like to see if Alex Tanney can be my practice squad QB, but I cannot carry 3 QBs at this point.  I do want to make the point, though, that he does seem to possess some interesting skills that are worth working with if you can get him to the PS.

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle were all automatics.  I think Lance Dunbar makes my team as well as a weapon that needs to be used quite a bit for his elusiveness. I am pretty sure I will need special teams out of everyone, but Murray.  But, I do like this group and will keep all 4.

Tight Ends (4):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, and Dante Rosario.  I was wrestling with Andre Smith against Rosario, but the special teams coach Rich Bissacia has a relationship of familiarity with Rosario and vouches for him on teams.  That is vital, because usually, 7-year vets don't play special teams as hard as 2-year vets.  Rosario looks to be on all those special teams and can catch the ball a bit, so he makes the team out of camp.

Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, and Anthony Armstrong all make it.  I am not crazy about Beasley taking a roster spot if I don't want to do much with him, so his ability to be active each week is certainly not a given.  But, the Cowboys do like him and he does show something when they call his number.  I just wish he could return like Harris and you could combine the two players.  Armstrong is another special teams only guy, and so you can see here how the Cowboys could get by with 5.

Offensive Line (9)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, and Darion Weems.  As you likely know, I am not crazy about this group at all.  I think that they have to get to a point where they have reserves who are potential starters someday, and right now, they have no backups who are really pushing to ever be starters.  Costa and David Arkin are/were fringe roster guys and this is why the waiver wire might allow me to finally cut ties with one of them.  Weems has limited quality, but if Free is now a guard, then you need a 3rd tackle, but you can finally move on from Arkin.  Also, because of Livings' contract, he gets a spot but can't likely help you for a while.  Basically, you have a mess here that might be slightly better or slightly worse on the mess from 2012 and the mess from 2011.

So that is 25 for the offense.

Now, the defense:

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen are my group.  I think inside, they can actually build a pretty salty rotation here when Ratliff comes back to give them anything.  I really have hopes for Bass, and Cohen is the type of guy you should try on run downs to eat that 1-technique double team.  Where this team gets edge pressure is a little iffy, but maybe Selvie and Wilbur can be ok as reserves for now.

Linebackers (6): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman, Brandon McGee, I guess.  There are literally no NFL linebackers in camp after the starters and Holloman.  Sims has had a tough go and should be on the fence, but since backup linebackers are your special teams guys, I think I need to keep McGee or Thaddeus Gibson (purely for special teams, because he is pretty much a defensive end) until the Waiver Wire yield.  This is really, really thin.  I don't mind McGee, but if they keep him, it is purely until the wire gives them something and put him on the practice squad.

Cornerbacks (5): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb, Sterling Moore makes up the best group on the team, potentially.  Can't imagine having a better group of 5 in a Dallas secondary.  Webb and Moore are both NFL players and cover you well in case of injury.

Safety (5) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton might be 1 too many. I keep McCray and Frampton for special teams help, but I might have to choose between the two and McCray does have a rather large number for just special teams at his level of play.  I don't feel good about this position right now at all, but Church and Wilcox might be ok there in a bit.  For now, Allen knows the defense and will stopgap until Wilcox can figure this out.

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur - pretty simple, there.  A very good kicker, a solid punter, and a very good deep snapper.

There is my 53.

As you can see, not on the squad are David Arkin, Matt Johnson, Danny Coale, and Caleb McSurdy.  Perhaps cutting a 4th from 2011, and a 4th, 5th, an 7th from 2012 will change your perception of those drafts a bit, but this is about getting your best team for today - not trying to make people feel better about past drafts.  All are practice squad eligible, but they just haven't done anything to move the needle to verify the faith that was put in them on draft day to this point and they have all had multiple camps now.

Don't forget, I think this 53 is only good for a day, so don't celebrate too hard.  Then, on Sunday and Monday, I expect the Cowboys to keep sorting this roster - especially at LB, and OL/DL.

Last year, the Cowboys had a half-dozen disagreements with me, so let's see if I am any closer this year.

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Wednesday Quick Hits - Building That Roster

Here are a few related items that we must all fit on to a Wednesday or we won't get to everything this week.

#1 - Getting Down to 53

On Tuesday, the Cowboys made some procedural moves to help get down to 75 after these initial cuts:

WR Jared Green WR Eric Rodgers WR Anthony Amos QB Nick Stephens P Brett Maher OG Dennis Godfrey LB Deon Lacey TE Colin Cochart CB Brandon Underwood

Then, Tyrone Crawford and Ryan Cook went to the IR and the final move - one that we all saw coming but hoped against was Jay Ratliff being pushed to the PUP list, taking him out for 6 weeks.

Before we cover the Ratliff issue, here is something we do every August - it is cataloguing the final cut-downs of the Cowboys' roster for the last 6 seasons.  This should be useful because it does show us what the guys in this particular personnel war-room believe about building a roster.

Now, of course, we must factor in the scheme change and how moving from the 3-4 to the 4-3 will clearly and obviously reduce your need for linebackers and increase your need for defensive linemen.  So the number will still be likely 14, but now instead of 8 linebackers, they will need 6.  And we expect instead of 6-7 defensive linemen, they will keep 8 - and possibly 9 if the concern about Ratliff makes them hoard backups that might have to start.

Below is the list:

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
QB	2	2	3	3	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4	3
WR	6	5	5	5	5	6
OL	10	11	10	10	10	9
DL	6	6	6	7	7	7
LB	7	8	9	9	7	8
DB	11	11	9	9	9	10
ST	3	3	4	3	4	3
Total	53	53	53	53	53	53

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
2012: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.

Now you can grab the latest 75 man roster found here at the Cowboys website and begin your own chop down, being mindful of position groupings.

We will do the same after Thursday Night's game on the blog here for Friday.

It is time.

#2 - Ratliff and the Defensive Line

One of the issues with the partnership of Jerry and Stephen Jones is that they repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  It usually involves a veteran player with a healthy dose of optimism about how "things will work out."  Those who dig deep into his mind speculate that this can all be traced back to Jerry's days wildcatting, but I won't bore you with that rerun.

What this boils down to is that the Cowboys were switching schemes on their defensive line (Will Need More DL), while losing one of your promising young DL players to jail (Will Need More DL), and another of your key players - Ratliff - only played 6 games in 2012 and looks like he may not be in perfect health in 2013 (Will Need More DL).

And yet, despite knowing all of this, they told the media that they were fine back on draft weekend:

“We feel like defensive line is a position of strength for us,” Jones responded when asked about Floyd. “In our system, we would probably put a premium on a quick-twitch potential three-technique. We [graded] him as not that, but that he certainly may be capable of getting there. That’s a case where are switch from a 3-4, he was obviously a nose tackle that had a lot of promise there at nose tackle. He’s an outstanding football player. … Again, I think you got to put our decision-making with a real focus on doing something with the interior of our offensive line.”

Now, nobody would argue that the Offensive Line might have been in an a worse overall position.  In fact, I believe I made that exact point a number of times.  But, that doesn't mean that you take one center and call it a draft on both lines of scrimmage.  Having said this a dozen times for what seems like 5 years in a row, I know it must be a broken record by now, but why they had the advantageous position of 4 picks in the Top 80 and after taking Travis Frederick decided to go TE, WR, Safety is a very sore topic for me.

They knew that Josh Brent was gone.  They knew that Jay Ratliff has not played at an elite level since 2009.  They knew that they were asking a lot of Jason Hatcher to replicate Warren Sapp or John Randle in this scheme and that says nothing about asking Anthony Spencer to be a defensive end.   And yet, when it was time to find a defensive lineman in the draft or free agency, they waltzed right by like they were totally set.

I know, I know.  They have lots of other needs that also needed to be addressed.  I would never argue that point.

But on May 6 we talked about all of the realities - even before they lost Tyrone Crawford:

Is it as big a mess as the offensive line was?  Not really, unless you are concerned with what is around the next corner.  The offensive line is present tense, but the defensive line is more of a future tense issue.  However, what has killed the Cowboys?  Lack of depth to deal with an injury.  And if Ratliff pulls up lame in training camp, what is the plan?  Full-time Lissemore at the 1-tech?  It looks like it would have to be.

I have no issue with trading back to get 2 starters for pick #18 because actually that makes sound common sense.  The issue is then spending your top 3 picks and really your entire draft without doing anything to help this group at all.  I find that flirting with disaster and don't forget what we talked about last fall after the Offensive Line situation reared its head against Cleveland again:

It isn't coaching.  It isn't effort. 

It is, however, another indictment on the continuing failures of this current front office.  I am sure when the 2012 season ends, like the secondary last spring, we will hear how fixing the offensive line in 2013 is the top priority.  And they will use many of their resources to attempt to do just that.  But, why it takes years for them to see things that are obvious to those watching their games remains a mystery. 

Then, if it is fixed, the shell game of personnel fixes will move to another department of the squad that will be overdue for renovations, too.  These are the effects of too many mistakes over the years in the personnel department.  The holes out-number the plugs, and before long, you have issues that cannot be addressed because you are out of picks and cap space.

Once you leave the port each August for another season at sea, you cannot replenish your supplies until the season voyage is over.  Meanwhile, in the middle of it, you are stuck with whatever you took with you.  From week to week, as people complain about the coaching and the players, those who remain on the voyage do the best with what they have.  But, clearly, what they have is not good enough, and no amount of effort is going to fix the issues for the long-term.

In 2013, they will leave port with a defensive line that might work but the best case/worst case scenarios are wildly problematic if there is one false step this year.

So, who replaces Jay Ratliff?  Would you believe Nick Hayden?  Hayden is one of the cool stories of camp and a guy who when I was watching him play in July seemed like a candidate to really fight for one of those final spots.  That is all you can expect of a guy who is 27 years old and has kicked around a few organizations before finding his way here, right?.  He played 33 snaps of NFL football in 2011, which is 33 more than his 0 in 2012 when he was healthy after an ankle sprain and his phone never rang after training camp.

But now, after one predictable situation with Jay Ratliff is finally revealed, the Cowboys are seemingly planning on him lining up against the Giants in Week 1 to unveil the all new Monte Kiffin defense.

Nick Hayden and George Selvie are both solid finds in the scrap heap of vagabonds.  Selvie is 26 and this will be his 4th chance to catch on and appears to have promise.   And maybe I am too gun-shy about using retread defenders after last season where they are looking on couches to fill out Rob Ryan's lineup in November and find Brady Poppinga and Charlie Peprah.  Sometimes, these reclamation projects work, but when you have a chance to fix this with typical moves to fill holes (you know, the draft!) the Cowboys are telling us everything is fine.  Now, with 11 days to go, Selvie, Hayden, and undrafted 2nd year pro Ben Bass are all going to need to play rather substantial roles it would appear.

They are also going to hope that Anthony Spencer is ready with no camp, Sean Lissemore is ready with very little camp, and Jason Hatcher heals.

Optimism never works in the NFL.  But, it appears to be a key strategy again for the Jones war-room.

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Wondering Where DeMarco Is Headed

One of the talking points out of Saturday's victory over Cincinnati was the benching of DeMarco Murray by Jason Garrett after the running back put the ball on the ground in the 1st Quarter.  It seemed to annoy Murray quite a bit and it certainly has helped fill some segments of radio as we discuss the relative authority demanded and distributed by the Cowboys' coach.  We discussed how Garrett is growing into his role recently, and this did not hurt that development one bit.

The DeMarco Murray story - as we hit year 3 already - is an interesting one to say the least.  He has been billed as a fantastic heir to the running back throne in Dallas which Tony Dorsett and Emmitt Smith once ruled.  Whether he is close to that quality remains to be seen in more than short bursts, but it is easy to see how he can make people forget Troy Hambrick, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice.

Now, he has to prove that he is more than Julius Jones, 2004 or Marion Barber, 2007 - which is, a fantastic start to a career, but that proved to be the high-water mark rather than a sign of things to come.

Babe Laufenberg had quite interesting numbers on the broadcast on Saturday night about the falloff of the numbers from DeMarco Murray since his November 2011 which set his bar very, very high.

In fact, the numbers are actually quite interesting to look at between Julius Jones and DeMarco.

First, Murray as we separate his first 100 carries from the rest.


DEMARCO MURRAY

Attempts	Yards	YPA	10+ Runs	Runs for Loss
1-100	674	6.74	17	18
next 225	886	3.9	15	71

And now, let's turn back the clock on Julius Jones in what is relatively the same two samples from 2004 and 2005:

JULIUS JONES

Attempts	Yards	YPA	10+ Runs	Runs for Loss
1-98	445	4.5	12	24
next 219	797	3.6	20	49

Clearly, you would rather have Murray no matter which way you slice it, but that is hardly real strong praise in that Julius Jones turned out to be a enormous falloff from Stephen Jackson - the guy that the Cowboys was thought was comparable to Jones on Draft Day 2004.

And, we better remember that Murray's drop off might have far more to do with those blocking in front of him rather than his own performance.  But, that is the discussion, right?  When it is time to pay DeMarco, you aren't going to pay him based on the quality of the offensive line.  You are going to pay him on his own quality - and it is their job to figure out where one ends and the next begins.

Which take us to what we love so much about Murray.  As his last 2 touches on Saturday night showed, he is a load to bring down.  He shoved a fantastic stiff arm into the helmet of a would-be tackler and then on the dump off pass from Kyle Orton, he made several Bengals miss on his way to the end zone.  He runs so hard.  He punishes on the way in.  He is relentless in his effort and seems to pattern his game after his predecessor at Oklahoma, Adrian Peterson (who doesn't?).

So, here come the next 2 questions about that style.

1) - Can you do it and stay healthy?

2) - Can you do it and hold on to the football?

And these, more so than the production to a certain point, are the determiners in what Murray becomes. Is he a back who is here in 2018?  Or, is he a back who is only here until he can be replaced with a new model in the 2015 draft?

The health has been detailed.  He broke his right ankle in 2011 and then sprained a foot in 2012 that kept him out of 6 weeks of action as well.  Can a player with the high miles from Oklahoma and his style stay on the field in the NFL when he plays that high and that hard?

And then, the fumbles.  It could be argued that Adrian Peterson's fumble issues in 2009 kept the Minnesota Vikings out of the Super Bowl (see NFC Championship Game in New Orleans) and in that offseason, Peterson was determined to fix it.  Since then, in 933 touches, he has fumbled a total of 6 times or once every 155 touches.

Murray, in 385 career touches has fumbled 4 times.  Not horrible, but once every 96 touches and had 2 last December that were crucial.  Once against Pittsburgh which cost the Cowboys points in a very close game as he fumbled and lost the ball at the Steelers' 7 yard line.  And then, in a tight loss to New Orleans, he fumbled in a tie game at the Cowboys 3 yard line, setting up the Saints nicely.

And, that is one principle reason why Garrett had to shut down Murray for a bit.  Yes, fumbles will happen.  But, as he said, a handoff has to be a safe play.  A running back is the last guy that should be fumbling.  He has to know that when he declares war on his tacklers, they will be going for that ball to teach him a lesson on going down at first contact.

The other assignment he blew on Saturday was the first play of the game when he ran past a blitzer who sacked Tony Romo.  He did not make the right read and his QB was hit hard near his own goal line.  These are big responsibilities, and he has to prove he can handle them all.

So, what does the future hold for Murray?  I imagine he controls the Cowboys season to a certain extent.  He has to stay on the field and he cannot get demoralized by poor blocking.  He can make this team a real contender if he can play anything like he did in November 2011.  But, that is historic stuff.

He is a pivotal player who can set the tone and be a leader by his ferocious style.  But, he also has to be above handing the ball over or getting himself hurt because of picking one too many battles.  It is a lot on his plate.

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Morning After: Preseason - Cowboys 24, Bengals 18

If you can read anything from the preseason (and we all know it is dangerous to think you can), then you attempt to carefully read the one time in the exhibition season where both teams admit they are running out the starters for an elongated amount of time.  And when that "dress rehearsal" week is against a team that has been in the playoffs in 2011 and 2012 and is attempting to accomplish plenty as well, then you like to see the results go your way.

And on Saturday, against the Cincinnati Bengals side that is a strong candidate to represent the AFC again in the postseason, the Cowboys held up pretty well all night, and clearly got the better of the battle of the 1's as Tony Romo and his crew produced and went to halftime with a 14-7 lead.  The #1 offense hit its stride in the 2nd Quarter and while it certainly is not without negatives, they looked very strong as Dez Bryant dominated the Bengals secondary with the ease that confirms the prediction of the entire offseason that has projected Bryant to have his way with just about anyone who dares to line up across from him.

Bryant, entering his 4th season as a pro, has looked the part since about October of 2012 as the unstoppable force that Jerry Jones thought was going to be worth the trouble when he went out of his way to secure him in the 2010 draft.  Amidst the nonsense and warning signs of headaches that waited ahead, was a player that looked to have as much talent as anyone.  However, those stories are everywhere in professional sports.  The rarity is to see someone become what optimistic projections hope for.  But here is Bryant, almost without warning, becoming a top player in all of the NFL and showing signs that if things go right, he can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants.

His physical handling of another 1st Round pick, Dre Kirkpatrick on Saturday Night demonstrated another chapter in that developing story.

And that story, puts the Cowboys offensive strategy in an interesting spot.  One in which the mantle of "go-to" guy for Tony Romo will not be Jason Witten anymore.  Witten will certainly catch his share and work near the chains over and over again with his sit-downs in the zones, but the offense should be designed with the idea that nobody will be able to handle Bryant 1-on-1.  If they try, they should be punished, and if they roll coverage over to assist (which will be the norm), then Witten, Miles Austin, and whoever the 4th receiver will be - a 3rd WR or a 2nd TE - will all have advantageous coverage opportunities.

This continues the discussion about personnel groupings and what we have seen in the first month of camp and preseason as it pertains to the initiative from draft day to utilize multiple tight ends as the base offense.  First, I would like to point out that the training camp media talk has nothing to do with the actual play-calling on the 16 Sundays that matter in the fall.  Just because beat writers work "12 personnel is the Cowboys offense" in their stories doesn't mean it is true and it doesn't mean that many of those same writers have any idea what that means.

How much does an offense utilize its base grouping?  If "12" is the base grouping, should we expect it 30% of the time or 80% of the time?  Does anyone know?

Well, here is what we know from what we wrote on the topic back in June.

 It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011. 

In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play? 

The Cowboys have not run an offense that has had a "base" personnel group since Troy Aikman ran the huddle.  There was a time, when the Cowboys were winning Super Bowls, that they had 2 basic personnel groups - "21" was the base, and then on 3rd Downs, they might roll out "11".  But, the idea was that the team was so good and frankly the game had not evolved too much with specialization, that the team may not substitute from Emmitt Smith, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novacek, Michael Irvin, and Alvin Harper the entire drive.

But, with Garrett, aside from the 2-minute drill, there are times where he will go an entire game without running the same personnel grouping for 2 plays in a row.  Seriously.  I have seen it a number of times.

So, let's get back to the question at hand:  Have the Cowboys demonstrated any proficiency in "12" in the preseason to make us believe that they are really going down this road as its default offense.  And the more important topic, which is never covered in the media it seems, is whether the Cowboys have made enough progress to actually try to run the traditional, balanced offense that Jason Garrett has said he desires - you know, the one that Norv Turner ran back in the glory days (where Aikman was never in shotgun, the pass set up an easy run, and the run set up an easy pass).  Can they run an offense from "under center"?  Because, if they are in shotgun, most defenses will not alter their personnel or strategy too much from "11" to "12".

Let's remember:  the whole point of changing personnel is to put the defense in a bind.  If you don't make them rethink their strategy, then anything you do is simply spinning your wheels.  But, if you take Terrence Williams off and replace him with Gavin Escobar, you would like to think there is no defender in the league that can cover both well.  If he is quick enough to stick with Williams, then he is not strong enough to handle Escobar (or tall enough) and the other way around should also be true.  However, the real beauty of "12" personnel is making the defense understand that depending on how they defend, the offense will change their plays at the line to capitalize on your shortfall.

And this bind is only properly hit if you can run your offense from under-center.  Under center is where the linebackers and safeties must respect your running game (if you have one) and move up.  This creates more space in the secondary and makes a QB's job easy.  This is why play-action passing is such a vital part of NFL offenses.  But, your Dallas Cowboys ranked 32nd in the NFL (dead last) in their use of play-action passing in 2012.  Why?  Because play-action doesn't work if the running game is non-threatening.  The linebackers snicker and drop into the passing lanes because they know they won't be needed to stop a run - the defensive line has it all by themselves.

So, let's bring this all together.  Is Gavin Escobar proving he was worth all of the trouble?  Not yet.  We have yet to see him put on a show downfield that makes this all click into place.  If he had, we may not ask ourselves tough questions, but so far, he is slow to show his quality.  And unfortunately, he is not a great run blocker.  And that is where the shortfall might put the Cowboys right back in the same place they were trying to avoid.  They want to get their running game going.  But, the offensive line has not progressed much and the negative runs were still all around on Saturday. Geno Atkins was still destroying your guards and putting the Cowboys in spots where they were allowing negative plays to lead to punts.  And Escobar cannot help balance the offense out at this point as he is still be taught how to run block on the fly.  But, more importantly, they cannot get the same 2 guards around Travis Frederick for more than a few moments.

It was Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau.  Then, Ron Leary and Bernadeau.  Then, David Arkin and Bernadeau.  Then, Bernadeau and Doug Free.  And, of course, during this time, Brandon Moore and Brian Waters were being courted to replace all of the above.  Free, by the way, looked an awful lot like Arkin in his debut inside.  When he was uncovered, he could help and get to the 2nd level with strong efficiency.  But, when he was challenged at the snap, he was outmatched.  Honestly, how did anyone think that a guy who has strength issues against 260 lb defensive ends think that he would be an option against 300 lb defensive tackles?  I understand having a plan for emergencies, but Free makes almost no sense at guard for precisely the reasons that he struggles at tackle.  It isn't the feet as much as it is the strength.  And guards have to play low and be strong.  Free is not very good at either.

The Cowboys know they have once again over-estimated their guard situation and now are trying to rally on the fly.  But, let's be realistic.  This is not likely to fall perfectly into place.  Despite improving the center position, it still appears that running the ball is going to be difficult with the guard issues that appear to be multiple.

So, why did they want to go to 12 in the first place?  To balance the offense.  To run the ball.  And to create matchup issues down the field with players who are tough to cover.

But, if they can't balance the offense and run the ball, what is the point?  And who creates better issues, the size of Escobar or the speed of Terrence Williams outside?

My conclusion after watching the 1st half on Saturday is that while things can still develop, it seems pretty clear that on August 26th, their best offense in 2013 is the same one that was their only offense in 2012.    That is putting Tony Romo in shotgun, line up 3 wide receivers and Witten and let Romo go to work.  In other words, not 12 personnel.

It is not ideal by any stretch as defenses will then make the nickel their base defense and challenge the Cowboys to run the ball, but at some point you have to make that choice that coaches discuss constantly and the media never discusses enough:  When a coach puts down his playbook and simply accepts what his offense is capable of and more importantly, not capable of, what plays and personnel groupings does he install to play the Giants in 13 days?

If the offense cannot physically compete in the interior of the offensive line, you have to make logical choices that give you the best chance to win.  Ideally, they want to do a number of things, but there is nothing ideal about demoralizing your team and stadium by running into your guards who are being pushed back into the running lanes because they are not strong enough to hold up.  So, you stop running - which defeats the entire scheme of "12 personnel".  Not to say you won't see it, but if you think that they are rolling this out 40-50% of their snaps, we will disagree strongly.

You have a major personnel advantage - but it is not in "12".  Rather, "11" personnel, as we saw Saturday and in 2012, is still where you have a chance to put up yards, points, and wins.  It is not fundamentally ideal, but it is realistic.

In April-August, you can talk ideal views and hopeful projections.  But, as September approaches, the coaching staff is starting to see what most of us feared all along.  Unless Escobar blows people away as an un-coverable force, then spending a 2nd round pick on a 2nd tight end might seem like a superfluous use of resources when he isn't even part of your best grouping.  And while it is early, Escobar having a chance might be tightly linked to your guards allowing you to run the ball.

It is time to get realistic - so expect this offense to use much more Terrence Williams than Escobar in September.  I know I am.

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Camp Blog: Concerns for Leary's Knee and For Cowboys Depth

Reports in cyberspace over the last 24 hours give us considerable concerns with regards to Ronald Leary's knee issues and by extension, the makeup of the entire offensive line as we look ahead to the season opener on September 8 against the Giants.

Leary was an undrafted free agent after the 2012 draft where the Cowboys invested an extraordinary amount of cash for a player that was passed over again and again in the draft itself.  The Cowboys liked him and decided to live with his medical checks that surely knocked him off of many team's lists - including any pick the Cowboys might spend on Caleb McSurdy.

Leary has been a top performer in Oxnard and has given me tremendous optimism about his level of play - his bad knee pending.  But, as we have said a number of times here and everywhere, the trouble with injury prone players is that they spend a considerable amount of time injured.  And when he leaves the team on August 13 - rather than mid November - we are reminded how far the squad has to go in terms of depth.

This is particularly true on both the offensive and defensive line and it is a stark reminder to many of the    hole that this team is trying to dig out of during the present tense to fix the problems of the past tense.

As I have said for several years, the Cowboys top talent is comparable and competitive with those who are in the playoffs every year.  If you'd like, we can say that 1-10 or even 1-15, the Cowboys roster is very good.  It could be better, but it is more than passable with elite talent on its roster.  But, this league is about the ability to show your resolve and ability over the course of 6 months.  And during that time there are a number of physical challenges that result in attrition and subtraction to your resources.  It happens every year as in 2012 when we saw the Cowboys repeatedly sign street free agents who had to not only jump right onto the game-day roster, but many times right onto the field as a starter or key reserve.

Where the Cowboys run into major issues is when they are asked to matchup the bottom 30 on their roster with the bottom 30 elsewhere in the league.  For it is spots 16-45 on game-day that end up winning and losing many seasons.  And often times, during a year, someone in that group will have to elevate and replace someone who is lost from your elite.  If there is a significant drop-off in performance, you are then up a creek without a paddle.  But, if they can supply an adequate replacement, then you can survive.  That is why teams win in this league.  Nobody avoids attrition altogether.  Not all injury totals or injury victims are created equal, but championship teams are built to sustain a certain amount of damage.

So, a team that has little depth has certain spots where it simply cannot afford a hit.  And on this team, for a long, long time, it has been the interior of both the offensive line and the defensive line in total.  Do they have enough players to fill holes with some amount of excellence to survive and play on?  Or, because of the presence of a fringe NFL player who is elevated to start, is the squad no longer able to protect their QB and run their offense.  Are they no longer able to run the Tampa 2 as it is designed?

Rob Ryan will tell you that in 2012, his defense was never seen.  Rather, it was the defense that he was able to run with guys being plugged in every week as brand new players.  Nobody is here to argue that he did a fantastic job as defensive coordinator last year, but if somebody believes that another coordinator could have done more with Dan Connor, Brady Poppinga, and Ernie Sims playing linebacker and Eric Frampton and Charlie Peprah splitting safety duties in Week 17 at Washington, they are likely delusional.

The best teams in this league - as in the deepest - have reserves that are often draft picks that they are developing for just this moment.  San Francisco last season is a great example as their top 2 picks were not even used until December when injuries hit.  But, when they did, they plugged in AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James for the first time in Week 14.  That, is the complete opposite of signing Brady Poppinga off his couch and playing him that Sunday.

Now, that is an extreme example, but when this team now sees Brian Waters as a savior - a guy who hasn't played since 2011 and who is 36 years and is also on his couch right now, it does serve as a reminder that the roster has been greatly improved, but there is a long ways to go.  Waters, of course, is the savior this time, since Brandon Moore wants to retire instead of start at right guard.  And, Waters was the first choice in 2011 (he opted for New England), when the Cowboys ended up keeping another old guard Derrick Dockery from retirement - although his performance was amazingly forgettable.

These are your choices when Stephen Peterman, Pat McQuistan, Robert Brewster, Sam Young, and David Arkin don't pan out.

It is the treadmill of the NFL.  You make a mistake and you now have to make up for it.  You can sit there and say all teams make mistakes, because they do.  But, that doesn't help when Kevin Kowalski is  joining Phil Costa and Dockery trying to block Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre Paul in Week 17 of 2011.

If you want to know why Tony Romo and the Cowboys get killed for their December records, look no further than spots 16-45 on the roster.  When your ship leaves port at Labor Day each year, it can not resupply during the season.  Every player you lose is either replaced by somebody on board or you are grasping at the couch crews.  By December, you have lost 8 pieces of your group and have to plug them internally with picks and prospects.  But, what if you have a hole in your roster the size of 2008 and 2009?

Then, you are hoping Nate Living and Ron Leary hold up health-wise.  And that says nothing about Jay Ratliff playing and playing well for 16 Sundays.  And what if either Ratliff or Jason Hatcher are lost to injury?  What defensive tackle depth have they built?  So little that veteran free agent Nick Hayden and undrafted free agent Ben Bass look to be right with Sean Lissemore as your best options.  Yikes.  Not a ton of rotation players there.

This is a good team.  But, they remain paper thin in spots.  And although everyone is thin at certain spots, there are fewer spots to be thin at than on the line of scrimmage in both directions.  Which leads us back to the question of, "if you have 4 picks in the Top 80, can you afford to take luxury items like a tight end and another wide receiver?"

I was bothered by it in April, but I think we will all be bothered by it in November when we are seeing that the draft priorities in 2014 will be the same as what they should have been in 2012 and 2013; Getting as many 300 pound quality bodies in here as possible.

It is still quite possible that Leary will be able to stay healthy and give this team plenty of quality for the next bunch of years, but David Arkin is starting on Saturday in Arizona and I am still pretty convinced that he is a fringe roster player and certainly not a starter.  Costa remains undersized and out-powered as well, and Livings seems to have a way to go health-wise.

The Cowboys have been drafting better, I believe, but have been operating at a deficit for years and will need several more Bruce Carter home runs before they are back in the black.  In the meantime, cross your fingers and hold your breath.  It is August and the offensive line looks beat up and patched together already.

That is generally not a great sign.

Hope for the best on those medical updates over the next 3 weeks.

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Camp Blog: DeMarcus Ware's Trip To The Top

13 days ago, DeMarcus Ware turned 31 years old.  If that isn't enough to make you feel old and a reminder of how quickly NFL careers can zoom by, then I don't know what will.

Ware has been - along with Jason Witten - the identifiable hero of this era and on the fast track to be in both the Ring of Honor and the Pro Football Hall of Fame when those two careers come to a close.  They are the coach's dream types that you never have to worry about and you just hope the younger players are smart enough to watch and learn every chance they get from the best in the business.

He is off to begin his 9th season and from the look of his form at camp so far, he appears destined to have another fantastic season.  And what does that mean for DeMarcus Ware?  Well, you can always start with the simple idea that aside from everything else, he will shock the league if he DOESN'T get double-digit sack totals.

Here are his year to year totals since being drafted in 2005:

2005	8.0
2006	11.5
2007	14.0
2008	20.0
2009	11.0
2010	15.5
2011	19.5
2012	11.5
Totals	111.0

He just keeps chugging along.  His streak of 7 consecutive seasons with 10+ sacks is an active record in the NFL, and puts him in a rare class with Reggie White and Bruce Smith for that type of thing.

He is already 4th in the NFL in active career sacks, trailing just 3 players still in the league in John Abraham (122), Jared Allen (117), and Julius Peppers (111.5).  Those 3 all preceded Ware into the league and the closes player to Ware who entered the league at the same time as him?  Trent Cole has 71 career sacks - a full 40 behind Ware.

Allen actually has a current streak of 6 seasons of 10+ sacks, but Abraham's career high is 2 seasons in a row and Peppers has never done more than 3 straight.  And yet, Ware has done it every year since 2006 and is still at the top of his game.

But how long can that last?  Well, back in the spring, we played the hypothetical game of what would Ware be worth in a trade and found out about pass rushers after age 31:

History tells us that pass rushers can have great careers past 31. 

Bruce Smith had 94 sacks after his 31st birthday.  Reggie White, who was 31 when he signed in Green Bay, still had 74 more sacks after his 31st birthday.  Kevin Greene had 87.5 sacks after that birthday, too.  Chris Doleman had 74.5 starting with the season after turning 31.  Even Michael Strahan had 57 sacks beyond age 31.   

There is plenty of reason to believe, based on looking at the 5 best sackers of all-time that you can still do plenty of damage after the age of 31.  Running backs don't age well, but apparently there is still a lot of miles left for the elite guys at getting to the QB if they stay in great shape.  And Ware appears to be one of those for sure.  And if he puts up numbers like those 5 players, he will jump a few of them and make a run at the Bruce Smith's all-time number of 200.  He needs 89 more sacks.

Only 8 players in NFL history can boast having 8 seasons or more of 10+ sacks.  I don't mean consecutive seasons, but just 8 seasons at all.   The list of 10+ sack seasons in a career:

Bruce Smith - HOF	13
Reggie White - HOF	12
Kevin Greene	10
John Randle - HOF	9
Richard Dent - HOF	8
Chris Doleman - HOF	8
Leslie O'Neal	8
Simeon Rice	8
DeMarcus Ware and others	7

As you can see, it seems odd that Kevin Greene cannot get into the Hall of Fame, given his accomplishments over the course of his awesome career.  But, he still has some time.  

I also find it interesting how he is right behind Simeon Rice.  Rice is a very under-rated player from the last 20 years as he spent the 2nd half of his career in Tampa Bay playing the exact spot in the Tampa-2 for Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli that Ware will now play from 2013-.  Rice had 57.5 sacks in 5 years for the Bucs from 2001-2005, so he the bar for DeMarcus is very high.

There are 2 significant questions that remain in this equation.  Who is going to effectively play the role of Warren Sapp in his prime?  It is one thing to say UFA-to-be Jason Hatcher (also 31 as he is actually 3 weeks older than Ware) is having a nice camp.  It is altogether different to say he is ready to do anything close to what Sapp did to the NFL during his time in Tampa.  Sapp was the gold standard for the 3-technique and no matter how hard you squint, it is impossible to see that the Cowboys will have that type of force.  

And remember, the Tampa-2 and much of what Kiffin preaches is based on the front 4 getting pressure and stopping the run by themselves.  This leaves 7 players for coverage and flying around making tackles.  But, if your 4 cannot whip their 5, then the defense falls apart.  And that is why we wonder if Tony Dungy was right when he argued that the Cowboys might need 2 drafts to get the personnel right to run this defense.  

I suppose that is why Sharrif Floyd is still in the back of everyone's mind who follows this team.  The Cowboys needed Travis Frederick to have a solid offense, but they also needed a young, quality 3-technique to be in an ideal position defensively.  Floyd is in Minnesota and they will bring him along behind Kevin Williams for now.  Meanwhile, the 2 interior players for the Cowboys are Jay Ratliff and Jason Hatcher with Sean Lissemore and Ben Bass behind them, it seems.  Is there a realistic view that sees that being disruptive enough to stress the opponent's OL?

The second significant question with the Ware topic goes back to the looming contract issues.  After 2013, he has 4 years and about $62 million remaining on his deal which includes a cap hit in 2014 for $16 million and in 2015 for $17.5 million.  With Tony Romo at $21.7m and $25.3m in those 2 years, you can see how a salary-cap stressed franchise is going to have to be creative to figure out the rest of the puzzle to make this all work out.  

But, beyond that, it is a fantastic luxury to have DeMarcus Ware on this franchise with plenty of good years in front of him.  The next time someone next to you argues that he is over-rated or the silly discussion that he doesn't get "big sacks", feel free to move to a different seat elsewhere.

He is an absolute legend.  

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