Growing Your Own NFL Teams

When we roll out statistics these days, the bottom line question will always be: "What does it mean when it comes to winning games?"

As it should be.

Any way we measure a team should always be put to the test of who is winning games and how they are winning them and whether or not this particular statistic has anything to do with that end goal.

Well, in the National Football League, I believe there is a tried and true principle that is only becoming more important as we go that is claimed to be closely tied to winning.  And I wanted to see if it was true, because while I believe in it deeply, what shows up in the standings is the truth.

That truth is being a homegrown franchise is the best way to build a consistent winner.  In other words, those teams that build their roster primarily from their own draft picks and own college free agents will always win more games over the long haul.  The reason and logic being that you do not participate in the poor investment of free agency which throws off your structure and brings in players who do not have equity in the organization.  It can also mean that football players are of most use at the least cost to their franchise in the 4 years immediately after leaving college.  Either way, if you grow your own, you are a franchise that is "always in the mix".  If you don't, you likely are not - using other team's castoffs and trying to patch-work a team of vagabonds.  It is very difficult to build a mansion with your neighbor's garbage.

Now, in the field of arguing, sample sizes are thrown together to prove and disprove things, and many have said that you can get statistics to say anything.  Maybe, but we want to be a bit more discriminating and use broader samples to make sure that we see the bigger picture.  Therefore, let's use 5-year results.

On the other hand, we also must understand that players have ages and their ages cause their effectiveness to fluctuate and therefore what is true today may not be true in a few years.  Whether this particular measurement is a predictor is anyone's guess.

I broke down all 32 rosters to see how many of the players were in fact, homegrown.  How many were the team's own picks, how many were college free agents, and how many were brought in from afar.

We found that the average NFL team's final 53-man roster contained 33 home grown players or 62% of the roster.  The very high end - Green Bay and Atlanta each had 43 players make their final 53 who were their own players from college - was 81% and the very low end was the Indianapolis Colts who have put just 25 players on their 53-man roster for 47%.

Of course, you might say that the Colts have done plenty of winning in the last 5 years (49 wins) and this is not helping your correlation theory, much.

True.  So let's list the top 5 and bottom 5 and see what turns up.

TOP 5 HOMEGROWN (Wins Are Regular Season Only)

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Atlanta	43	56
Green Bay	43	53
Pittsburgh	40	53
Baltimore	39	54
Houston	39	45
Top 5	40.8	52.2

BOTTOM 5 HOMEGROWN

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Indianapolis	25	49
Washington	26	33
Detroit	27	22
Tampa Bay	28	33
NY Jets	29	43
Bottom 5	27	36

So, the Top 5 teams in the NFL for having their own talent win 52.2 games on average for the last 5 years and the Bottom 5 win 36 games.  That is a 10 win season and a 7 win season for 5 years straight to get to those numbers.  

In today's NFL, that is rather significant, don't you think?

So, where does that leave the Dallas Cowboys?  Actually, with 36 players on their roster who are life-long Dallas Cowboys players on their 53, they aren't in bad shape.  That ranks them in a group at about 10th best in the NFL and in very strong shape with teams that are also in the playoff mix generally, Minnesota, Cincinnati, New England, the NY Giants, and maybe a team that is on the rise in the St Louis Rams.

The Cowboys have 23 of their own picks on their roster.  That is below the NFL average of 26.2, but where they really clean up is that they rank 2nd in the NFL behind St Louis in their own college free agents on the roster.  They have 13 of them and the NFL average is 7.  

People often ask me if the Cowboys get enough credit for finding college free agents and it is a good question.  How many can say they found their franchise QB as a college free agent?  But, when you get to 13, you do have to counter with asking how they have that many spaces available?  If you only have 53 spots, it would seem that you would need to miss on a lot of actual draft picks to have vacancies to accommodate that many undrafted players.  So, yes, they have more undrafted players, but you could argue it is much easier to make Dallas' roster than a team that is hitting on its picks more often.  

In fact, only New Orleans has more college free agents (from any originating franchise) on their 2013 53-man squad with 23.  Dallas has 19 - tied with Seattle.  The NFL Average for undrafted players on a roster is 14, and the low is the NY Giants with just 9 players who did not get selected by anyone in their draft.

Back to our study, when we look at the worst at homegrown talent, the bottom 10 is completed with Oakland, Denver, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Chicago. Those 10 teams are all franchises that currently have 30 or fewer players on their roster who are homegrown.

There are obviously wildcards in this mix.  But, tell me, which of the following 2 groups do you associate with generally winning 10 games and which is generally losing 10 games?

Top 10 in Homegrown Talent: Falcons, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Patriots, Giants, Bengals, Vikings, and Cowboys

These teams have 489 wins in the last 5 years - 9.8 wins per year, per team.

Bottom 10 in Homegrown Talent: Colts, Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Jets, Bears, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Raiders

These teams have 358 wins in the last 5 years - 7.1 wins per year, per team.

There is much more to this study, and much more to winning (Peyton Manning seems to help), but when you wonder what the teams that win consistently have in common, look here.  Depth is what covers teams.  Depth is due to solid drafting and cheap players filling out the back half of your roster, but not just cheap - Quality and cheap.  

You win by securing players early and then letting them grow for you.  Pulling through your competition's trash can yield results on occasion, but generally not enough over the long haul.  The Cowboys are starting to figure this out.  Let's see if they can stay on course.

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Your 2013 Dallas Cowboys!

After giving the personnel department a few days to figure everything out, the Cowboys have finally settled on their week 1 roster.  For historical purposes, we will actually have to stick with the 53 men who the Cowboys turned into the league on Saturday at the 5 pm deadline, but as we said last week, a proper NFL roster is in the constant state of development and is never fully set.

In fact, once we get through the week 1 games, then a number of business thresholds are met.  For the vested veteran - a player with 4+ years of service time, his salary becomes guaranteed if he is on the 53 for Week 1.  This causes teams to have their eyes on a veteran but to not actually he bring him to town until September 9th, the day after their 1st game.  Players signed in that scenario may be signed under an arrangement where they make their salary only in weeks where they are on the roster.  That may not seem like an issue that is a big deal to many of us and worth the trouble, but to a team that is up against the cap (or has an in-season extension in mind for one of its pending free agents), it can free up quite a bit of needed 2013 dollars.

And, of course, once foot meets leather on Sunday Night, injuries start to happen that will continue to keep the personnel department busy and that roster in a constant state of flux.  It is the way the sport works.

But, now let's lock in that original 53 and the subsequent moves already made to look at how this thing shapes up here in 2013:

Final 53:


Quarterbacks (2):  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar

Tight Ends (5):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, Andre Smith, Dante Rosario

Wide Receivers (5): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley

Offensive Line (10)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, David Arkin, Darion Weems.

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen

Linebackers (5): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman

Cornerbacks (4): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb

Safety (6) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton, Jeff Heath

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur


From there, the following transactions have happened:

- Cowboys Place Nate Livings on Injured Reserve (roster to 52)
- Cowboys trade 6th in 2014 to KC for Edgar Jones, LB and 7th in 2014 (53)
- Cowboys trade Sean Lissemore to SD for 7th in 2014 (52)
- Cowboys claim Kyle Bosworth, LB from Giants (53)
- Cowboys trade Dante Rosario to Chicago for 7th in 2014 (roster sits at 52)

Also, they named their practice squad to open 2013:

- Alex Tanney, QB
- Jakar Hamilton, S
- Tim Benford, WR
- Danny Coale, WR
- Jason Vega, DE
- Micah Pellerin, S
- Cameron Lawrence, LB
- Ray Dominguez, G

They have room to add another body still - something likely to happen today - along the offensive or defensive lines.  But, we should give credit to the Cowboys for flipping bodies for picks.  In this cynical climate we live in regarding the Cowboys, we should never thumb our noses at acquiring picks.  They always have a chance to find something nice or to be used as future ammunition to move up in the draft for the right reasons.

As we break this thing down, I will draw your attention to a fun little info-graphic that the Cowboys website has made itself.  As we all know, 9 out of 10 astronauts endorse info-graphics as the learning tool of the future.

I think the moves over the weekend confirm some real issues with special teams that are being addressed.  Expect Bosworth and Jones to both step right in as special teams contributors and be on all kick and punt teams as early as Sunday Night.  Rosario was being kept for that it seems, but once they were offered something of substance by the Bears (and oddly, Joe DeCamilis' special teams), the Cowboys cashed in.

Quick thoughts on where the 53 sits - there are still major questions about how the offensive line will perform or even line up on Sunday.  It seems Ron Leary is ready to roll (or very close) and therefore, we might have Free returning to tackle, but it is tough to say.

However, the issues on this team remain up front.  If ever there was a feeling that they are one more injury away from disaster, I think you could use that with their Ratliff situation on the defensive line.  They have found some reasonable replacement ideas, but the quality is dropping quickly and any more bodies lost could cause the dam to break.  I was hoping one of their claims would be at defensive tackle, but they passed on Marvin Austin (waived by Giants) which tells us he must still not be healthy enough for Dallas to take a run at him.

Today is the player's off day as the coaches finally put the finishing touches on their game-plan.  Tomorrow, they welcome in the 53 (52) man roster and get to work with their first normal work-week of 2013.  They open with a divisional opponent that has beaten them 4 out of 4 trips to Arlington when the NY Giants come calling again.

There is no tip-toeing into this year.  The schedule advises the Cowboys to grab September - easily their easiest month in terms of first glance schedule evaluation - and build a strong record early for the first time in a while.

Since moving to the new Cowboys Stadium, they have started their seasons by allowing the rabbits to run away and hide:

2009: 2-2
2010: 1-3
2011: 2-2
2012: 2-2

If you follow the NFC East, you know that the Giants always seem to start 6-2 or so, so building a nice deficit is a habit that needs to be overcome.  And playing the Giants at home, at Kansas City, the Rams at home, and at the Chargers says that 3-1 in September should be reasonable plan.

And now, we get ready for the start.  Just 5 more days.

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Roster to 53 - Final Version

Every year I try this on the morning after the final preseason game.  It is my best attempt at locking down the Cowboys final 53-man roster.  We must be clear, here.  This is not my pick for the 53, but rather my attempt to figure out who they select as their 53.  There is a distinction that would affect a few players who I would not put on this team, but they disagree - and obviously, their opinion matters quite a bit more than mine.

Keep in mind, this requires an impossible task - crawling inside the head of the decision makers at Valley Ranch.  It also requires us to understand the cap rules that may serve as a tie-breaker as it pertains to such things as full salary eligibility if you are on the roster in Week 1, practice squad eligibility, and veteran minimums.  On top of all of that is the looming idea that there is significant dead money that could actually make the cap situation worse if they were to cut someone like Nate Livings (his number would grow from $2.4m to around $4.5 if you cut him).

Then, you need to detach your evaluations and consider how the Cowboys see a guy.  Which guy might be claimed if we cut him versus which guy might be able to slide through to our practice squad?  Which guy needs more developmental time because he can't help us now, but we don't want to throw him back in the ocean and let someone else catch him.

There are plenty of questions for every team, and our job gets tougher because we have to figure out what exactly Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones are thinking during this process, too.  That requires a skill that we may not possess.

Anyway, all of these projections should be discussed with 2 major things in mind.  1) I don't think this is difficult enough.  What that means is when you cut from 90 to 75 and then to 53, you hope that sooner or later you arrive at the conclusion that you have "too many NFL caliber players" and you can't keep them all.  You then wrestle at your final cuts, knowing that someone is going to snap up your leavings.  Unfortunately, because of a number of circumstances that have put the Cowboys in a dangerously shallow part of the depth pool, cutting to 53 is not hard.  It is also one that doesn't seem to risk too many of your cast-offs going to other teams as a gem that was not properly identified.

And that leads us to 2) this 53 man that they get to on Saturday will not be the 53 man on Wednesday when they all start the practice week for the Giants.  Because of the shallow depth and because of the needs on this team and the ease of the cuts, I fully expect the Cowboys to be looking carefully at several potential upgrades on their roster.  Offensive and defensive lines, in particular, with linebacker and safety also candidates for fresh bodies over the weekend via the waiver wire.  Some teams won't be shopping much.  I expect Dallas to be pretty active in making sure they are fortified, knowing that another team's 55th best player may be better than your 52nd best player.  You must fix that as soon as possible.

Now, using the chart that we printed for you on Wednesday, let's go through the positions and build this 53:

Quarterbacks (2): This is pretty straight-forward.  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton make the team.  I would like to see if Alex Tanney can be my practice squad QB, but I cannot carry 3 QBs at this point.  I do want to make the point, though, that he does seem to possess some interesting skills that are worth working with if you can get him to the PS.

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle were all automatics.  I think Lance Dunbar makes my team as well as a weapon that needs to be used quite a bit for his elusiveness. I am pretty sure I will need special teams out of everyone, but Murray.  But, I do like this group and will keep all 4.

Tight Ends (4):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, and Dante Rosario.  I was wrestling with Andre Smith against Rosario, but the special teams coach Rich Bissacia has a relationship of familiarity with Rosario and vouches for him on teams.  That is vital, because usually, 7-year vets don't play special teams as hard as 2-year vets.  Rosario looks to be on all those special teams and can catch the ball a bit, so he makes the team out of camp.

Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, and Anthony Armstrong all make it.  I am not crazy about Beasley taking a roster spot if I don't want to do much with him, so his ability to be active each week is certainly not a given.  But, the Cowboys do like him and he does show something when they call his number.  I just wish he could return like Harris and you could combine the two players.  Armstrong is another special teams only guy, and so you can see here how the Cowboys could get by with 5.

Offensive Line (9)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, and Darion Weems.  As you likely know, I am not crazy about this group at all.  I think that they have to get to a point where they have reserves who are potential starters someday, and right now, they have no backups who are really pushing to ever be starters.  Costa and David Arkin are/were fringe roster guys and this is why the waiver wire might allow me to finally cut ties with one of them.  Weems has limited quality, but if Free is now a guard, then you need a 3rd tackle, but you can finally move on from Arkin.  Also, because of Livings' contract, he gets a spot but can't likely help you for a while.  Basically, you have a mess here that might be slightly better or slightly worse on the mess from 2012 and the mess from 2011.

So that is 25 for the offense.

Now, the defense:

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen are my group.  I think inside, they can actually build a pretty salty rotation here when Ratliff comes back to give them anything.  I really have hopes for Bass, and Cohen is the type of guy you should try on run downs to eat that 1-technique double team.  Where this team gets edge pressure is a little iffy, but maybe Selvie and Wilbur can be ok as reserves for now.

Linebackers (6): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman, Brandon McGee, I guess.  There are literally no NFL linebackers in camp after the starters and Holloman.  Sims has had a tough go and should be on the fence, but since backup linebackers are your special teams guys, I think I need to keep McGee or Thaddeus Gibson (purely for special teams, because he is pretty much a defensive end) until the Waiver Wire yield.  This is really, really thin.  I don't mind McGee, but if they keep him, it is purely until the wire gives them something and put him on the practice squad.

Cornerbacks (5): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb, Sterling Moore makes up the best group on the team, potentially.  Can't imagine having a better group of 5 in a Dallas secondary.  Webb and Moore are both NFL players and cover you well in case of injury.

Safety (5) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton might be 1 too many. I keep McCray and Frampton for special teams help, but I might have to choose between the two and McCray does have a rather large number for just special teams at his level of play.  I don't feel good about this position right now at all, but Church and Wilcox might be ok there in a bit.  For now, Allen knows the defense and will stopgap until Wilcox can figure this out.

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur - pretty simple, there.  A very good kicker, a solid punter, and a very good deep snapper.

There is my 53.

As you can see, not on the squad are David Arkin, Matt Johnson, Danny Coale, and Caleb McSurdy.  Perhaps cutting a 4th from 2011, and a 4th, 5th, an 7th from 2012 will change your perception of those drafts a bit, but this is about getting your best team for today - not trying to make people feel better about past drafts.  All are practice squad eligible, but they just haven't done anything to move the needle to verify the faith that was put in them on draft day to this point and they have all had multiple camps now.

Don't forget, I think this 53 is only good for a day, so don't celebrate too hard.  Then, on Sunday and Monday, I expect the Cowboys to keep sorting this roster - especially at LB, and OL/DL.

Last year, the Cowboys had a half-dozen disagreements with me, so let's see if I am any closer this year.

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Wednesday Quick Hits - Building That Roster

Here are a few related items that we must all fit on to a Wednesday or we won't get to everything this week.

#1 - Getting Down to 53

On Tuesday, the Cowboys made some procedural moves to help get down to 75 after these initial cuts:

WR Jared Green WR Eric Rodgers WR Anthony Amos QB Nick Stephens P Brett Maher OG Dennis Godfrey LB Deon Lacey TE Colin Cochart CB Brandon Underwood

Then, Tyrone Crawford and Ryan Cook went to the IR and the final move - one that we all saw coming but hoped against was Jay Ratliff being pushed to the PUP list, taking him out for 6 weeks.

Before we cover the Ratliff issue, here is something we do every August - it is cataloguing the final cut-downs of the Cowboys' roster for the last 6 seasons.  This should be useful because it does show us what the guys in this particular personnel war-room believe about building a roster.

Now, of course, we must factor in the scheme change and how moving from the 3-4 to the 4-3 will clearly and obviously reduce your need for linebackers and increase your need for defensive linemen.  So the number will still be likely 14, but now instead of 8 linebackers, they will need 6.  And we expect instead of 6-7 defensive linemen, they will keep 8 - and possibly 9 if the concern about Ratliff makes them hoard backups that might have to start.

Below is the list:

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
QB	2	2	3	3	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4	3
WR	6	5	5	5	5	6
OL	10	11	10	10	10	9
DL	6	6	6	7	7	7
LB	7	8	9	9	7	8
DB	11	11	9	9	9	10
ST	3	3	4	3	4	3
Total	53	53	53	53	53	53

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
2012: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.

Now you can grab the latest 75 man roster found here at the Cowboys website and begin your own chop down, being mindful of position groupings.

We will do the same after Thursday Night's game on the blog here for Friday.

It is time.

#2 - Ratliff and the Defensive Line

One of the issues with the partnership of Jerry and Stephen Jones is that they repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  It usually involves a veteran player with a healthy dose of optimism about how "things will work out."  Those who dig deep into his mind speculate that this can all be traced back to Jerry's days wildcatting, but I won't bore you with that rerun.

What this boils down to is that the Cowboys were switching schemes on their defensive line (Will Need More DL), while losing one of your promising young DL players to jail (Will Need More DL), and another of your key players - Ratliff - only played 6 games in 2012 and looks like he may not be in perfect health in 2013 (Will Need More DL).

And yet, despite knowing all of this, they told the media that they were fine back on draft weekend:

“We feel like defensive line is a position of strength for us,” Jones responded when asked about Floyd. “In our system, we would probably put a premium on a quick-twitch potential three-technique. We [graded] him as not that, but that he certainly may be capable of getting there. That’s a case where are switch from a 3-4, he was obviously a nose tackle that had a lot of promise there at nose tackle. He’s an outstanding football player. … Again, I think you got to put our decision-making with a real focus on doing something with the interior of our offensive line.”

Now, nobody would argue that the Offensive Line might have been in an a worse overall position.  In fact, I believe I made that exact point a number of times.  But, that doesn't mean that you take one center and call it a draft on both lines of scrimmage.  Having said this a dozen times for what seems like 5 years in a row, I know it must be a broken record by now, but why they had the advantageous position of 4 picks in the Top 80 and after taking Travis Frederick decided to go TE, WR, Safety is a very sore topic for me.

They knew that Josh Brent was gone.  They knew that Jay Ratliff has not played at an elite level since 2009.  They knew that they were asking a lot of Jason Hatcher to replicate Warren Sapp or John Randle in this scheme and that says nothing about asking Anthony Spencer to be a defensive end.   And yet, when it was time to find a defensive lineman in the draft or free agency, they waltzed right by like they were totally set.

I know, I know.  They have lots of other needs that also needed to be addressed.  I would never argue that point.

But on May 6 we talked about all of the realities - even before they lost Tyrone Crawford:

Is it as big a mess as the offensive line was?  Not really, unless you are concerned with what is around the next corner.  The offensive line is present tense, but the defensive line is more of a future tense issue.  However, what has killed the Cowboys?  Lack of depth to deal with an injury.  And if Ratliff pulls up lame in training camp, what is the plan?  Full-time Lissemore at the 1-tech?  It looks like it would have to be.

I have no issue with trading back to get 2 starters for pick #18 because actually that makes sound common sense.  The issue is then spending your top 3 picks and really your entire draft without doing anything to help this group at all.  I find that flirting with disaster and don't forget what we talked about last fall after the Offensive Line situation reared its head against Cleveland again:

It isn't coaching.  It isn't effort. 

It is, however, another indictment on the continuing failures of this current front office.  I am sure when the 2012 season ends, like the secondary last spring, we will hear how fixing the offensive line in 2013 is the top priority.  And they will use many of their resources to attempt to do just that.  But, why it takes years for them to see things that are obvious to those watching their games remains a mystery. 

Then, if it is fixed, the shell game of personnel fixes will move to another department of the squad that will be overdue for renovations, too.  These are the effects of too many mistakes over the years in the personnel department.  The holes out-number the plugs, and before long, you have issues that cannot be addressed because you are out of picks and cap space.

Once you leave the port each August for another season at sea, you cannot replenish your supplies until the season voyage is over.  Meanwhile, in the middle of it, you are stuck with whatever you took with you.  From week to week, as people complain about the coaching and the players, those who remain on the voyage do the best with what they have.  But, clearly, what they have is not good enough, and no amount of effort is going to fix the issues for the long-term.

In 2013, they will leave port with a defensive line that might work but the best case/worst case scenarios are wildly problematic if there is one false step this year.

So, who replaces Jay Ratliff?  Would you believe Nick Hayden?  Hayden is one of the cool stories of camp and a guy who when I was watching him play in July seemed like a candidate to really fight for one of those final spots.  That is all you can expect of a guy who is 27 years old and has kicked around a few organizations before finding his way here, right?.  He played 33 snaps of NFL football in 2011, which is 33 more than his 0 in 2012 when he was healthy after an ankle sprain and his phone never rang after training camp.

But now, after one predictable situation with Jay Ratliff is finally revealed, the Cowboys are seemingly planning on him lining up against the Giants in Week 1 to unveil the all new Monte Kiffin defense.

Nick Hayden and George Selvie are both solid finds in the scrap heap of vagabonds.  Selvie is 26 and this will be his 4th chance to catch on and appears to have promise.   And maybe I am too gun-shy about using retread defenders after last season where they are looking on couches to fill out Rob Ryan's lineup in November and find Brady Poppinga and Charlie Peprah.  Sometimes, these reclamation projects work, but when you have a chance to fix this with typical moves to fill holes (you know, the draft!) the Cowboys are telling us everything is fine.  Now, with 11 days to go, Selvie, Hayden, and undrafted 2nd year pro Ben Bass are all going to need to play rather substantial roles it would appear.

They are also going to hope that Anthony Spencer is ready with no camp, Sean Lissemore is ready with very little camp, and Jason Hatcher heals.

Optimism never works in the NFL.  But, it appears to be a key strategy again for the Jones war-room.

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Camp Blog: Concerns for Leary's Knee and For Cowboys Depth

Reports in cyberspace over the last 24 hours give us considerable concerns with regards to Ronald Leary's knee issues and by extension, the makeup of the entire offensive line as we look ahead to the season opener on September 8 against the Giants.

Leary was an undrafted free agent after the 2012 draft where the Cowboys invested an extraordinary amount of cash for a player that was passed over again and again in the draft itself.  The Cowboys liked him and decided to live with his medical checks that surely knocked him off of many team's lists - including any pick the Cowboys might spend on Caleb McSurdy.

Leary has been a top performer in Oxnard and has given me tremendous optimism about his level of play - his bad knee pending.  But, as we have said a number of times here and everywhere, the trouble with injury prone players is that they spend a considerable amount of time injured.  And when he leaves the team on August 13 - rather than mid November - we are reminded how far the squad has to go in terms of depth.

This is particularly true on both the offensive and defensive line and it is a stark reminder to many of the    hole that this team is trying to dig out of during the present tense to fix the problems of the past tense.

As I have said for several years, the Cowboys top talent is comparable and competitive with those who are in the playoffs every year.  If you'd like, we can say that 1-10 or even 1-15, the Cowboys roster is very good.  It could be better, but it is more than passable with elite talent on its roster.  But, this league is about the ability to show your resolve and ability over the course of 6 months.  And during that time there are a number of physical challenges that result in attrition and subtraction to your resources.  It happens every year as in 2012 when we saw the Cowboys repeatedly sign street free agents who had to not only jump right onto the game-day roster, but many times right onto the field as a starter or key reserve.

Where the Cowboys run into major issues is when they are asked to matchup the bottom 30 on their roster with the bottom 30 elsewhere in the league.  For it is spots 16-45 on game-day that end up winning and losing many seasons.  And often times, during a year, someone in that group will have to elevate and replace someone who is lost from your elite.  If there is a significant drop-off in performance, you are then up a creek without a paddle.  But, if they can supply an adequate replacement, then you can survive.  That is why teams win in this league.  Nobody avoids attrition altogether.  Not all injury totals or injury victims are created equal, but championship teams are built to sustain a certain amount of damage.

So, a team that has little depth has certain spots where it simply cannot afford a hit.  And on this team, for a long, long time, it has been the interior of both the offensive line and the defensive line in total.  Do they have enough players to fill holes with some amount of excellence to survive and play on?  Or, because of the presence of a fringe NFL player who is elevated to start, is the squad no longer able to protect their QB and run their offense.  Are they no longer able to run the Tampa 2 as it is designed?

Rob Ryan will tell you that in 2012, his defense was never seen.  Rather, it was the defense that he was able to run with guys being plugged in every week as brand new players.  Nobody is here to argue that he did a fantastic job as defensive coordinator last year, but if somebody believes that another coordinator could have done more with Dan Connor, Brady Poppinga, and Ernie Sims playing linebacker and Eric Frampton and Charlie Peprah splitting safety duties in Week 17 at Washington, they are likely delusional.

The best teams in this league - as in the deepest - have reserves that are often draft picks that they are developing for just this moment.  San Francisco last season is a great example as their top 2 picks were not even used until December when injuries hit.  But, when they did, they plugged in AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James for the first time in Week 14.  That, is the complete opposite of signing Brady Poppinga off his couch and playing him that Sunday.

Now, that is an extreme example, but when this team now sees Brian Waters as a savior - a guy who hasn't played since 2011 and who is 36 years and is also on his couch right now, it does serve as a reminder that the roster has been greatly improved, but there is a long ways to go.  Waters, of course, is the savior this time, since Brandon Moore wants to retire instead of start at right guard.  And, Waters was the first choice in 2011 (he opted for New England), when the Cowboys ended up keeping another old guard Derrick Dockery from retirement - although his performance was amazingly forgettable.

These are your choices when Stephen Peterman, Pat McQuistan, Robert Brewster, Sam Young, and David Arkin don't pan out.

It is the treadmill of the NFL.  You make a mistake and you now have to make up for it.  You can sit there and say all teams make mistakes, because they do.  But, that doesn't help when Kevin Kowalski is  joining Phil Costa and Dockery trying to block Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre Paul in Week 17 of 2011.

If you want to know why Tony Romo and the Cowboys get killed for their December records, look no further than spots 16-45 on the roster.  When your ship leaves port at Labor Day each year, it can not resupply during the season.  Every player you lose is either replaced by somebody on board or you are grasping at the couch crews.  By December, you have lost 8 pieces of your group and have to plug them internally with picks and prospects.  But, what if you have a hole in your roster the size of 2008 and 2009?

Then, you are hoping Nate Living and Ron Leary hold up health-wise.  And that says nothing about Jay Ratliff playing and playing well for 16 Sundays.  And what if either Ratliff or Jason Hatcher are lost to injury?  What defensive tackle depth have they built?  So little that veteran free agent Nick Hayden and undrafted free agent Ben Bass look to be right with Sean Lissemore as your best options.  Yikes.  Not a ton of rotation players there.

This is a good team.  But, they remain paper thin in spots.  And although everyone is thin at certain spots, there are fewer spots to be thin at than on the line of scrimmage in both directions.  Which leads us back to the question of, "if you have 4 picks in the Top 80, can you afford to take luxury items like a tight end and another wide receiver?"

I was bothered by it in April, but I think we will all be bothered by it in November when we are seeing that the draft priorities in 2014 will be the same as what they should have been in 2012 and 2013; Getting as many 300 pound quality bodies in here as possible.

It is still quite possible that Leary will be able to stay healthy and give this team plenty of quality for the next bunch of years, but David Arkin is starting on Saturday in Arizona and I am still pretty convinced that he is a fringe roster player and certainly not a starter.  Costa remains undersized and out-powered as well, and Livings seems to have a way to go health-wise.

The Cowboys have been drafting better, I believe, but have been operating at a deficit for years and will need several more Bruce Carter home runs before they are back in the black.  In the meantime, cross your fingers and hold your breath.  It is August and the offensive line looks beat up and patched together already.

That is generally not a great sign.

Hope for the best on those medical updates over the next 3 weeks.

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And Off We Go To Oxnard

The 2013 NFL season represents the 18th year since Super Bowl 30 for the Dallas Cowboys.  To this point, 17 seasons have been played since they won their 5th Super Bowl, and 281 games have been played during that stretch (regular and post season).

There have been some good times and some good teams, but given the unreasonably high bar that Cowboys' teams and eras of the past have set, the final results of each of those 17 seasons have left their vast fan-base with feelings of disappointment.  They have become accustomed to better.  It is not a matter of deserving anything, because that is not how sports work.  But, if you would have told the millions of Cowboys fans on that glorious night in Tempe, Arizona, when Jerry Jones held a Lombardi Trophy that did not require Jimmy Johnson's direct assistance, that the next 17 years would include nothing but "break-even" football, it would likely not be believed.

But, here they are.  Starting season 18 since their last Super Bowl and with those 281 games behind them, we look at the results to check that win total:

140-141.

To be fair, if you deduct the playoff games (2-7), the record shifts to 138-134 through 17 seasons.  That, of course, comes out to an average record of 8.1 wins and 7.9 losses per season year after year.

Since 2006, the year Tony Romo became their "QB1", they have a 65-51 mark (64-48 regular season) which equates to a average record of 9.1 and 6.9, and does account for one of those 2 playoff wins since Super Bowl 30 (the other being the wildcard round win against the Vikings in 1996).

Jason Garrett took over as coach of the Cowboys at midseason of 2010.  Since that time, he has coached the Cowboys in 40 games, compiling a record of 21-19.  He has not been to the playoffs to this point in his coaching tenure, which stands as a large impediment to any progress he has made in solidifying a roster and building a program that might be heading in the right direction.

Results matter and the results for Jerry Jones, Tony Romo, and Jason Garrett have all been right around 8-8.

And so, with 2011 and 2012 both being 8-8 seasons, the Cowboys start another training camp with optimism in their words and a fresh start in their minds.  They will talk about winning football and ideas on how this particular season will be different from the others.  They will, Jerry, especially, even mention the Super Bowl as the final destination and goal and talk about a window being open and trying to keep it from closing.

These are the things we do as we go to training camp with the Cowboys year after year.  And in 2013, where optimism has been beaten down by the teams that have come before them, you actually can sense a fan base that has morphed into numb and at times, hopeless about the present condition evolving into that of a perennial contender.

And, the more I look at this team, the more I do wonder if this will be one of those years where a team does play at a level that even surprises their own fan base.  I think this 2013 version can be pretty good, but like its predecessors, the margin for error is not going to be very big.

Yes, they have some very good talent at most starting positions.  Yes, they play in a division with teams that do not seem like impossible obstacles in their path.  Yes, they do seem to have new scheme ideas and strategies that work on paper.  And yes, they have a collection of veterans that are tired of 8-8.

But, of course, as we have seen in the past, injuries always hit and they don't try to be considerate of positions where you can afford the loss.  Even with a reasonably manageable schedule, this team has always found it tough to navigate through long stretches without a stumble.  New schemes are never as easy to figure out as they appear on paper during June and July.  And when you are 8-8, you understand that 2 plays - last year a Dez Bryant finger tip and a Dan Bailey kick in Baltimore from being 10-6.  Of course, as the wins at New York, versus Cleveland, and at Cincinnati showed us, they won some games by the skin of their teeth, too, and weren't miles from 6-10, either.

I absolutely look forward to ever year's trip to camp, but the experience of 15 Cowboys' camps in a row for me has taught me to measure bold claims and perfect optimism with a fair amount of realism and understanding that guys in these sports are wired a certain way to always look at things with the best case scenarios in mind.  They know that bad things are ahead, but they have no choice but to push forward with a brave face in July and August.  It is a new season.  New results are in their grasp if they make the right decisions along the way.

Added cast members will now coordinate a new defensive look.  Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli have more knowledge than any 1-2 defensive coaching combo could possibly provide.  They will push this team to create turnovers and negative plays and become a disruptive and physical defense like their other stops in Tampa Bay and Chicago.

On offense, the discussion of play-calling and a more determined emphasis on being physical and running the ball behind a powerful offensive line will be hashed out plenty in the next few weeks.  The Cowboys poured almost all of their major draft resources into plugging offensive holes.  And, it is exciting to see what they have done as Travis Frederick, Gavin Escobar, Terrance Williams, and Joseph Randle all bring tons of ability and youth to the table that should make the offense run more smoothly and effectively.

Over the next few weeks, we will tackle as many salient topics and questions as possible.  We will review 2012 with a microscope and try to sort through what applies to 2013.  We begin another journey with this team as they try once again to work their way up that hill.

They have never been a bottom feeder (well, Dave Campo's era might have been), but they have also ceased to be a heavyweight over these last 17 seasons.  They have just been stuck in the middle, without ever moving too far up or down the standings.  Right in the mix for the final playoff spots until the end, but recently, just on the outside looking in.

It is an amazingly tough league.  32 teams all hit camp with optimism about how they can figure out how to be one of the 12 teams that will play in the tournament in January.  History tells us that each season, half of the playoff field changes to new teams.

Can the Cowboys be there in that group of new teams?  Absolutely.

But, it will require them answering many of their questions with positive answers.

It all starts today, as they board their planes to California.  1st Practice is Sunday at 4pm Pacific time.

From there, nobody knows what lies ahead.  But, those of us who love the sport cannot wait to begin to find out.

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Bill Callahan Is Now Calling The Plays - And Yes, It Matters

The delivery of the news is "uniquely Jerry" where communication skills seem forever stuck in reverse, and complete with comedy ensuing.  Think about the true joy of being a principle member (Say, Bill Callahan or Jason Garrett) of a rather significant news story and surrounded by the leering press and to be asked about questions where you are not sure whether or not your own boss has spilled the beans without warning moments ago.  You are tip-toeing through a mine field and are careful not to step on the toes of colleagues who have been demoted or promoted and wish to handle things with honesty (assuming that is how you naturally roll), but realize you have to amend your normal sensibilities to comply with the ol' "Way Things Are At Valley Ranch as Long As Jerry Is Running The Show."

It surely should also be understood to all involved that Jason Garrett, the mostly-nuetered head coach of this operation, knew what he was getting into many years ago when he elected to stay in this situation out of some loyalty to either Jerry Jones, the Cowboys brand, or both, rather than to start with a clean slate in either Baltimore or Atlanta.  He was made the highest-paid assistant coach in the league and the head coach-in-waiting to stay in Dallas and work his magic further.  But, with that would come this incredibly odd working situation that he must navigate through, despite looking rather helpless and powerless when it comes to many basic decisions that are often given to a head coach.  For all we know, it is possible that Garrett knew this needed to happen and blessed it, but the fact that he still argues for keeping the discussion in-house, when his boss has already decided to make sure the microphones knew the information, further reduces any perception of power that Garrett may hold.

But, let's not bury the lead here.  Yes, the way information is made public is both frustrating and unconventional, but it is the information itself that truly matters.  If we weren't sure before yesterday who was the de facto head coach, then we haven't been paying attention.

The story itself is that after 6 years of interrupted control of the Cowboys offense, we are getting that fresh set of eyes that I petitioned for back in December and January:

Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense.  I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has.  You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time. 

6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them.  This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit. 

This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has.  In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.  Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received.  The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB.  When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything.  The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything.  If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do.  Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football.  But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.

Again, for those who are new to my thoughts on how offense works, a team doesn't run the ball because running is the only way to win (Emmitt getting 20 carries is usually the result of a Cowboys winning game-plan, not the root of it), it threatens to run the ball to make passing easier and blitzing harder.  A balanced offense is the most fundamentally efficient way for coaches to put the playmakers in advantageous positions on the field, rather than draped with coverage.  And if your playmakers are the beneficiaries of uncertainty in the defense of what is coming on this next play, then everyone wins.

If Garrett hasn't been able to exploit that, and if "12 Personnel" is the base offense, then perhaps there isn't a true fit with Garrett and the principles that are the whole point behind multiple tight ends to begin with.  12 Personnel, which we will elaborate on further very soon, is a grouping that is trying to make you pick your poison.  If you wish to keep base defense on the field, then 12 shreds you with mismatches of linebackers trying to run with tight ends.  If you switch to nickel or dime, then 12 destroys you with a running game that forces defensive backs to deal with much bigger run blockers.  You cannot "guess" correctly, because often 12 is based on how you decide to defend it with your personnel on defense.  There is almost no other grouping like this, as "11" is always going to draw nickel defense and "21" is always going to draw base (because teams don't mind linebackers on a true fullback).  But, "12" is that perfect combo - provided you have the tight ends to do it - where there is no right answer for the defense.

We do know that Bill Callahan has traditionally valued power running in his previous stops.  Oakland, in particular was a team that would balance things up pretty well, and sometimes err on the side of running too much.  However, we do wonder how all of this info balances with the narrative that Jerry has voiced for months now, that Tony Romo might be designing much of this offense, anyway.  So, will Callahan have the power to bully the gameplan to his liking? or is it Romo? or is it Garrett? or....

Anyway, back to the thoughts in January:

I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes.  I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.  

So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it.  I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line.  I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.  

Change is good sometimes in the NFL.  Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on.  I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off.  And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.  

I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards. 

I am fine with trying something new. 

Many people are going to be citing statistics about 2012 that are just flat-out misleading.  Context means everything when you work with numbers, and since it is too complicated and time-consuming to apply context, most people will just google "total offense" for a year and assume all details cancel each-other out over a season.

But, in another study we did back in February that can be read here, we showed how numbers are empty when you are gaining them down 28-3:

I will concede that it is difficult to define "garbage time" sometimes.  Was it garbage time when the Cowboys were down 23-0 to the Giants at halftime?  Or, 28-3 to the Redskins at the half on Thanksgiving?  And if so, didn't the Cowboys almost win the Giants game and at least make the Redskins sweat a bit? 

I would say that arguing this, though, is missing the point of trying to identify the Cowboys offensive ability in 2012.

My point, would be this:  In 2012, the Cowboys' would spend all week designing a game plan that they thought would best work against their opponents.  Then, at game-time, they would find that their game plan was completely ineffective and scrap it.  This would happen at halftime sometimes, 3rd Quarter other times, and even sometimes well before halftime.  When they would scrap their game plan (a balanced attack with multiple personnel groupings and formations) and go exclusively to a 2-minute drill offense that was 100% shotgun and 100% 11 personnel, they would then find the ability to get yards and ultimately, points.  

The score in the game here is interesting, but not the trigger.  The trigger is that moment when Garrett and/or Romo says to the other, "this isn't working.  Let's do what we know works." 

And that happened over and over and over in 2012.  Especially at home.  The following is a look at the amount of time the Cowboys had the ball with the lead in their 8 home games.  The information is accurate and impossible to believe.

Opponent	Time with the lead
Tampa Bay	17:58
Chicago	0:00
New York	1:08
Cleveland	1:16
Washington	3:46
Philadelphia	1:52
Pittsburgh	10:36
New Orleans	0:00
Total	36:36

That is right.  36 minutes and 36 seconds the entire year.  This is a team that fell behind early almost every single home game.  Why?  Because their game-plan week after week was not working. 

Why?  I could offer 100 ideas.  But, the point is, they weren't working.  And, from there, when Romo and Garrett would take it and throw it in the trash, that is when the Cowboys were able to turn these games into competitive contests by going back to Shotgun-11 personnel.  Then, and only then, was this offense able to get anything done.  

Under center?  Rushing the ball?  Declaring run and getting a tough yard?  Under center and run play action and hit one over the top?  In all of these scenarios, 2012 was about as bad a year as Garrett has on record.

All this is being said without referencing the number of times in the 40 games as head coach where the Cowboys seemed to butcher a head coach decision.  Those issues with clock management, or challenge calls, or other high-leverage moments that seemed to add to Garrett's responsibilities in such a way where it all appeared to be too much for one guy to deal with.

Now, hypothetically, even though Jerry has told us all the reasons why Garrett should be calling plays in the past, this should allow further brain power and fresh perspective on what is usually 2 jobs that require every waking hour for 2 different smart football men.

Of course, the other, more cynical view is that now with 3 different former head coaches on the staff in Callahan, Rod Marinelli, and Derek Dooley (at the college level), along with Monte Kiffin, that the Cowboys are well equipped to replace Garrett in-season if they so choose, which is reminiscent of how he took over the duties at midseason in 2010 when Wade Phillips met a similar fate.

I was quite confused as to why this news item was so difficult to release, but in the end, I think it could be a great new way for the Cowboys offense to function.

Either way, I think 6 years is enough information to conclude that it would be difficult to argue that Garrett should have retained his authority in the offense.  A change has been long overdue.

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NFL Draft 2013: Attempting To Analyze The Weekend

Round	Pick	Overall
Rd 1	#31	Travis Frederick, C, Wisconsin
Rd 2	#47	Gavin Escobar, TE, San Diego St
Rd 3	#74	Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor
Rd 3	#80	JJ Wilcox, S, Georgia Southern
Rd 4	#114	BW Webb, CB, William Mary
Rd 5	#151	Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma State
Rd 6	#185	DeVonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina
Rd 7	-----	Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook

Honestly, there is no question that is asked more of those of us who are blessed to cover the NFL than "How did you think the Cowboys did this weekend?"  And, there is no question that EVERYONE is less equipped to answer.

Seriously.

Think about how few people that would be acquainted with the depth charts and situations of all 32 teams so that they can release grades relative to the rest of the league.  Then, think of all of the people on the planet who would be familiar - and I mean really familiar - with the 254 players chosen in this draft.  I think it is hard enough to zero in on the top 100 players and just the depth chart of the Dallas Cowboys.  I spend a few hours a day for about 3 straight months trying to watch and absorb as much information as I can.  That comes out to a ton of time spent watching college games and studying the players as best I can.  And I had almost nothing on 4 of the 7 players the Cowboys selected over the weekend.  And when I say almost nothing, I hadn't watched a single San Diego State game, talked to a single scout about Gavin Escobar, and honestly didn't know much about him except what I had read.  And that was their 2nd round pick!  Think about how little I had in my head or files about B.W. Webb.

I admit all of this to simply show a little honesty as a media member that hopefully has earned your trust over the years, and then tries to take that responsibility seriously.  If there is anyone who claims they have done their homework on all 254 players and their homework to study the depth chart, cap situation, and football issues with all 32 teams - then they are wasting their time in the media.  They should really be personnel experts in the NFL.

And yet, everywhere I look, here is another media guy grading all 32 teams!  With what information?  That makes no sense to me and I refuse to participate in what amounts to gathering military intelligence about the middle east by watching cable news.  It is an insult to those media departments who employ a dozen guys who evaluate talent all day, every day, for 12 months a year to grade their performance based on 5 minutes of youtube highlights and whether or not they drafted a local player from a college I watch on Saturdays and maybe remember 5 of his college plays.  I find that sort of guess work silly and think that you should try to avoid those who attempt to tell you who the "winners and losers" over the weekend are.  They are surely taking wild guesses and are seldom willing to share their grading mis-steps from previous drafts.  If getting a good grade from the media means taking guys they have heard of, then this is all a waste of time.

I attempt to not feed the monster.  And yet, this is my job.  To gather as much information as I can and to in some ways evaluate what the Cowboys did with their resources to try to improve their team in the quickest and most efficient way possible, which is by doing well on draft weekend.

So a bit further below, I throw caution to the wind and attempt to do what I just admitted is nearly impossible to accomplish properly:

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First, an overall positioning statement on how this whole thing works.  I don't believe you can properly evaluate a pick without looking at things from a macro point of view.  Like spending too much time on one play in a full game, to discuss one pick from one draft when you are attempting to construct a competitive team in a very competitive league is very difficult.  

The fact is that the best-run organizations in football botch picks routinely.  They all have horror stories of misevaluation because this is a very difficult process to choose young men and try to project the next decade of their lives.  It is a very physical game that requires health and a complex game that requires development and progress through coaching and self-motivation.  To simply assume that a player would turn out the same regardless of where he is drafted is silliness.  If John Elway was traded on draft day of 1983 to the Cowboys, we have no idea what would have happened.  We do know, though, that the Cowboys would not have picked first in 1989, so Troy Aikman goes to Green Bay.  Without Jimmy Johnson but with Lindy Infante, do we really think that Aikman would have still won 3 Super Bowls?  

Good teams botch picks and bad teams have good picks.  It is all part of a batting average type of measurement where the good teams hit a better percentage.  Just because Albert Pujols strikes out 3 times in one night doesn't mean he isn't the gold standard for hitting.  And the same is true when the Patriots botch a pick.  It happens.  But, you can't botch too many.

Second, when you have too many holes you are in a situation where there are no wrong answers (any pick you make will address a need, most likely) and there are no right answers (no matter who you pick, there will still be some major needs that don't get addressed).  This is the curse of the 2013 Cowboys draft.  They had needs and needs and needs.  They had too many holes and not enough plugs.  They shocked the NFL with all of the street free agents that they signed mid-season who stepped right onto the roster and into the huddle because of their absurd lack of depth.  They could not afford injuries in a sport that injuries are part of the deal.  

So, when they entered this weekend, they were at a distinct disadvantage against the league for 2 reasons.  1) they had more needs than your average team and 2) they had fewer picks than your average team.  

When you do look at those NFL Draft grades that I asked you to ignore, you will find that it starts with your pick load.  The Ravens and 49ers are celebrated for their awesome draft.  Well, they entered with the 2 most picks.  Green Bay was congratulated for their draft.  Well, they had 10 picks on Day 3 to use and trade with.  Minnesota graded well - I should hope so with 3 1st Rounders.  You will generally see that the teams with volume are going to hit the target more often.

And this is why the Cowboys operate from a distinct disadvantage.  This is the macro view.  They butchered several drafts in a row by most counts.  2006-2010 have very little left to show for it.  We have discussed this at great length and if you compare them with the power teams in the league, you will see that the issue lies there - not with what they do in the 2012 or 2013 draft.  

Imagine a car in a race that is 4 laps down before it finally gets its set-up right.  It would make no sense to criticize them too hard for whatever happened after that.  They were too far behind to recover.  And that is where the franchise stands.  Too many holes and no matter who they take, it is the wrong answer.

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There is an amazing story in Sports Illustrated a few issues back about Al Davis and the rebuilding of the Raiders franchise after his death.  Reports inside include the idea that they did not employ a full-time groundskeeper or even have a draft war-room that was used.  They simply did things Al's way and this led to them falling further and further behind the rest of the league as he got older and older.  

They were unable to compete without a philosophy or a method for competing in a league that is unforgiving for the last decade when they never won more than 5 games after their Super Bowl 37 season.  It was a league power that stopped being a league power once its leader no longer knew how to do it nor how to accept assistance.

Now, with their new General Manager Reggie McKenzie at the helm, they are attempting to dig out of their massive hole.  He may or may not be able to do this job, but he is at least going to install some methodology that worked for him in Green Bay under Ted Thompson.  Build a board through incredible work, trust your board, and follow the process closely without deviation.

With reports that the Cowboys did not follow this process over the weekend when the room disagreed about taking Sharrif Floyd at #18 or trading down to get #31 and #74, we are left with whispers that Jerry Jones stepped in and grabbed the steering wheel when his personnel department and coaching staff wished to do otherwise.  They spent all year setting up their board and doing their work, but when the moment of truth arrived, the veto power from the man on the throne slammed down.  And the personnel department shook its collective head.  It is his team and he can do what he wants, but to go against your brain trust when that has found trouble in the past, well...

As I said on Friday, I think trading down is a solid idea for a team with too many issues to address.  And the very real possibility that they received Travis Frederick and Terrance Williams for Sharrif Floyd or possibly, Tyler Eifert seems like pretty good business in one sense.  But, if you employ a personnel department to evaluate the odds and the quality of the players involved, while you are off at the X Games or at a presidential library opening (or artwork releases or Papa Johns or negotiations with the NCAA or...), it would seem that you should be willing to trust their judgement.  And if there wasn't a history of vetoes and over-rulings in the 1st Round of drafts of the past, it wouldn't be a big issue.  But it has happened again and again.  And it hasn't always been the wrong play (DeMarcus Ware over Shawne Merriman) and maybe that is why it continues to happen.

And although it would be hyperbole to compare Jerry Jones and Al Davis in some ways, it is not a stretch to assume that the only way either would ever relinquish power is when they no longer walk the earth.  

This, of course, caused head shaking and disappointment when the personnel department couldn't believe that they had a chance at a special player that fell in their lap.  The Cowboys loved Floyd and didn't believe he would get to them.  So when he did, most thought this was an easy call.  

Jerry did not.  He traded back and then they decided to pull the trigger on the last remaining offensive lineman on their "top tier", even though most thought that was "too rich" to steal a phrase Stephen Jones used to describe LSU safety Eric Reid going at #18.  

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DAY 2

The final 6 picks in the draft were full of curiosities as well.  Taking Gavin Escobar is an interesting play and one that reminds us that Jason Garrett was ready and willing to take advantage of the entry of "12 Personnel" into the league back in 2008 and 2009.  12 personnel is the best way to balance up your offense between run and pass because it is a package that does not tip your intentions either way but keeps your weapons on the field (rather than using a fullback, you replace him with a pass catching tight end who can occupy the safeties down the middle of the field).  

They tried and tried with Martellus Bennett to make the 2-Tight End attack lethal and despite Stephen chiming in that Bennett was "very productive" in his 4 years in Dallas, we know that it never came close to working.  Bennett never had a 300 yard season in a Cowboys uniform.  In fact, in 1 year in New York, he fell only 200 yards short of his 4-year total in Dallas.  12 Personnel was a flop here for 4 seasons, but clearly the conviction is still in the coach to try to do what other teams have done so well, and Escobar gives them a weapon that looks the part.  He clearly ran a troubling 4.85 40 at the combine where 10 years earlier Jason Witten ran a 4.70 (and Bennett a 4.73 with James Hanna clocking a 4.45). But, we should remember that they were talking up the idea of taking Tyler Eifert from Notre Dame at #18 in the first place, so this was clearly an objective.  Whether it should have been a higher objective than linemen is something that we should debate for quite a while (I was hoping for 900+ lbs of human in the first 3 picks and we certainly fell well short of that).

I didn't consider Tight End very far up on their list of needs, but they chose to bolster their offense with a play-maker who certainly would go up and win a ball in the air at San Diego State and was ultra productive.  Obviously, 12 personnel does give defenses a real issue if done properly, and just because Bennett couldn't make it work does not mean the strategy won't work.  It simply means they got it wrong.  I certainly don't mind the player, but I do wonder if they could afford to spend lavishly on this sort of upgrade given that they continue to ignore the defensive line throughout the draft.  With LSU's Bennie Logan and Penn State's Jordan Hill both on the Cowboys list of possibilities, I did find the strategy curious.

On the other hand, I have written at great length about the inefficiencies of the offense and the inability to run the ball under any circumstances.  Not being able to run makes the pass defenses more problematic and the pass rush more fierce.  But, to see them address center and 12 personnel like this has me hopeful that both of these moves are an indirect remedy for better balance and better running attacks.

To read more about the major issues with the Cowboys offense in 2012 that necessitates moves like the first two picks of their draft, please review this story - Garrett's Optimistic Appraisal of the offense forgets plenty of context and this story - 6 years of the Garrett Offense Tells Us Plenty that were published here back in February.  I don't love going center-tight end with all of the other needs, but I understand the logic.

At #74 (the extra pick from the trade back) they snag Baylor WR Terrance Williams.  Williams is electric and addresses the 3rd WR spot which is so vital around here because Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are likely to get banged up a bit, making #3 the #2 for a portion of the season.  He is a home run hitter and a very good value in the 3rd Round.  He also puts you in a spot where after 2014, he might be Austin's replacement or in a worst case scenario, he covers you if Dez Bryant's contract situation gets out of hand (which I doubt happens).  This is a position of need and the Cowboys ran almost nothing but 11 personnel with 3 WRs for all of its production in 2012, so it is tough to argue with the player - but again, it did not address OL, DL, or Safety causing many to slap their foreheads in disgust.

At #80, they finally targeted one of their primary needs (at least as we have assumed) which is safety.  But, in this particular case, it was not the most likely of the available safeties left, Fresno State's Phillip Thomas.  Thomas had led the NCAA in interceptions and was a noted ball hawk.  Nor was it noted strong safety, Shamarko Thomas of Syracuse.  Instead, they went with Georgia Southern's JJ Wilcox.  Wilcox obviously has incredible physical tools including a 4.53 40, but is perhaps most identified because he has played safety for just 1 college season.  

Wilcox is still learning the position after running back and wide receiver earlier in college, but has no issues with confidence or self belief.  He has tools and the Cowboys believe they can help him continue to figure out how to grow into being an NFL safety.  They clearly saw Thomas and Thomas as guys without the same upside, and although project safeties give me great pause (Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, I am looking at you), I am excited to see what Wilcox and Matt Johnson can bring to a safety position that has not had legitimate young prospects in a while.

DAY 3

With just 3 picks on Day 3, the Cowboys had to ring the bell on 3 occasions.  Obviously, I need to go see B.W. Webb's film at William and Mary before I get too carried away, but I am very excited to see his speed, his big plays as a special teams man, and another corner that might replace Orlando Scandrick at the end of this season as the 3rd corner.  This pick #114, like a few others, seems to try to cover themselves for future financial cutbacks.  Of course, they don't appear to have covered themselves very much at the spots when Anthony Spencer and Jason Hatcher are unrestricted next winter.  

Webb is certainly tiny and with 0 interceptions last year, we need to see how he competes at the next level, but when looking for a corner, I always like to start with a guy who is under 4.5 and generates electricity when he has the ball.  Webb looks the part so that is a nice start at least.  We might wonder, much like in Round 2 when they passed on Eddie Lacy, Le'Veon Bell, and Montee Ball, if the Cowboys should have considered Johnathan Franklin to fill that 2nd Running Back void.  They did not, until Round 5.

That is when at #151, the Cowboys targeted their RB.  It was another Big 12 South product in the form of Joseph Randle from Oklahoma State.  Certainly at 4.63, he is not a burner, but he appears to be a workhorse who also has the ability to catch the ball and go and at 204 might be able to share the load on blitz pickups.  This need was further up my list than another corner, but to get Randle in Round 5 I believe is a pretty good achievement.  They desperately needed to through this up the list of priorities with the durability issues of DeMarco Murray, so there can be no real dispute on this idea other than to wonder if they might have found a better player earlier.

Finally, their final pick was in the 6th round at #185.  DeVonte Holloman from South Carolina is a linebacker who should do what most 6th rounders do and that is to supply exceptional work at special teams and depth in the lineup.  This team clearly needed linebacker depth after last year's issues and finding Holloman seems reasonable.   This deep in the draft you just take the most talented player left almost regardless of position, so until I learn more about him, it is tough to consider this at all as a place to 2nd guess.

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Again, to review what I said earlier, when you have old mistakes on top of older mistakes you have too many holes to fill.  When that happens, there are no wrong answers (they needed players at every spot they took and they each have a chance to play a major role) and there are no right answers (they took just 1 offensive lineman in the entire draft and maybe reached on him and they took no defensive linemen whatsoever).

I look forward to breaking down the college work of each of these players in the weeks to come and writing a personal review on each of them when I have digested enough of their games.  In the meantime, I certainly understand the critiques but I am also interested in the additions.  Even in the case of Travis Frederick, if he can finally give them solid center play, I don't think anyone will have a major issue with that decision going forward.

It has been said a number of times, after draft weekend, the position a player is taken is just a footnote.  It makes no difference when the ball is snapped who went where and in what round.  They all simply become NFL players and in this case Dallas Cowboys.  Undrafted players and 1st rounders fight for the same spots and compete now regardless of how they got to this league.  And from that standpoint, the Cowboys appear to be infused with 7 promising prospects who can all help this team win.  There is plenty of room for 2nd guessing, but from where I sit, if I was the type to grade drafts, I am not sure I could have a major issue with the concepts behind most of these picks.  

Now, we see if they can play.  

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On the Tony Romo Extension

On Friday, Tony Romo agreed to a brand-new, eye-popping contract that was the talk of the NFL.  6 years, $108 million with $55m guaranteed, a $25m signing bonus, and $57m in his 1st 3 seasons were the headline terms and depending on your overall views of Romo, Jerry Jones, and the Cowboys, it is quite possible

Often times, when discussing business that has recently been completed in the offices at Valley Ranch, we look at them through the lens of "how the Cowboys do business."  However, it would be silly to compare an unnecessary extension to Jay Ratliff with a very necessary fixing of Tony Romo's contract situation that would have reached a very damaging head if things were not adjusted before next spring.

In this case, we must ignore all of the reckless decisions that have been made locally when it comes to managing the Cowboys cap, and simply answer some basic truths that are not Cowboys-centric, but rather fully acknowledged around the league.

Let's Start with this one.

1. Teams that have quarterbacks who are still at the top of their abilities do not let them leave unless they have the next one ready.

Go back as far as you want on this one, but I went back to 2008.  With the exception of the Denver Broncos - who decided that the maintenance level on Jay Cutler was not worth the trouble - you are hard pressed to find a decent QB who could be considered in the top half of the league who changed teams without his former employer having a real grasp on what was next.

Brett Favre?  Aaron Rodgers.
Peyton Manning?  Andrew Luck.
Drew Brees?  Phil Rivers.
Even Carson Palmer?  Andy Dalton.

You can find old Donovan McNabb or Matt Hasselbeck or David Gerrard, I suppose, but those teams didn't want those guys and were pretty sure they could replace them with what they have in house or it simply didn't matter too much.

The Cowboys have nothing close to being "the next one".  This is a systemic issue inside the organization as other teams look for QBs every April even if they don't need them because around the league we have seen time and time again that the blocked, young backup QB is currency.  He can be an easy flip for draft picks after holding the clipboard for Tom Brady or Brees for a few seasons.   Ron Wolf used to take a QB just about every year despite having a 25-year old Favre (Mark Brunell, Aaron Brooks, Hassellbeck) .  Always look ahead.  But, the with the exception of the short-lived Stephen McGee project, the Cowboys have pretty much stood firm on the idea that they were locking up Tony Romo and throwing away the key, only getting past-their-prime backups to stand on the sideline in a non-threatening posture.

Without the next one, they had no choice but to give in to any demand from Romo's camp.  Jerry Jones cannot think about a world in which he doesn't have a chance at a Super Bowl run.  And he knows, as bleak as things might look with Romo, without Romo and with a need to find the next one on the scrap heap or free agency, he can only see 2001-2005 again in his memory.

2. As much as we make about post-season failures, there are 16 games played every year before that which determine salaries.

In an interview with Bob Costas before the playoffs started this season, Aaron Rodgers threw out a quote that fits Romo pretty well: "I really believe you earn your paycheck during the season, then the post season is all about creating your legacy."

This tells us a few things if we believe that.  One, that Romo's legacy is dependent on either coming through in January someday, or not really having a legacy that endures the test of time.  This is not breaking news or anything.  It is simply an obvious truth.  We all know that in football and especially at the QB position, so much is measured and admitted based on whether or not that QB had that "1 shining moment" or big run.  Does he have a ring?  Even just 1?  If you have 1, you are admitted into the club.  If you don't, you can still be considered to be a significant player, but Dan Marino is just not ever going to be considered in Peyton Manning's class.  And it simply comes down to Manning winning Super Bowl 41.  Otherwise, Marino has every right to that level.  But, Romo is even down another level as he has only won 1 playoff game.  I won't list everyone in the league who has 1 playoff win at QB, but allow me to assure you that it is a very lengthy list.  There is no history in a single solitary wildcard win.

But, the other thing it tells us, is just as vital.  Quarterbacks earn their paychecks based on giving their team a chance to win every Sunday - from September until December.  That is why they are paid.  If January success determined money in this league, there would be plenty of Quarterbacks living in apartments every year.

It doesn't.  What makes QB the most well-paid position in the sport is the ability to single-handidly raise the competitive level of a team.  Now, one guy can't change an entire team from lousy to Super Bowl champion, but he can take a D+ and turn it into a B- and that can cover a lot of issues around the squad that didn't get fixed.  A QB, now paid over $1 million dollars per regular season game, can be the deodorant on a team like the Cowboys for a lot of stinky departments.  And if you don't think Romo is that guy, then we might have to agree to disagree.

He has a career 55-38 record as starter and statistics that are well above the league average across the board.  He is the 5th highest rated QB over the course of his career, trailing only Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and Brees since 2006.  Like I have always said, if one of those 4 are available, go get them.  But, since truth #1 at the top of the page is true, you can forget about that.  Instead, you are sifting through the Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb files if you are looking for a QB this off-season, and I don't see their names on that list.  Forget it.

So, the going rate for QBs are set.  Romo has a resume of 7 seasons of starting at a high value.  The Cowboys had no fall-back option and he would have been highly compensated in free agency next spring if it wasn't done.

You may not like it, but you must confess it was the only reasonable move to make.  Especially given the Cowboys situation where they were already all-in for the present and not worried about the cap monster that they were feeding that will hit when Ratliff, DeMarcus Ware, Jason Witten, and Miles Austin all hit the end.

Romo has kept his end of the bargain if Rodgers is right about players earning their checks in the regular season by being asked to perform with a silly offensive line and at times a sub-standard defense.  He has certainly been out-performed by several QBs in this league, but given their unavailability and your lack of a backup plan, this deal is what it is.

And that is what?  Well, according to Todd Archer of ESPN Dallas, here are the details:

Here’s the breakdown of Romo’s contract, not including the $25 million signing bonus:  

2013: $1.5 million base salary, $11.818 million cap figure  

2014: $13.5 million base salary, $21.773 million cap figure  

2015: $17 million base salary, $25.273 million cap figure  

2016: $8.5 million base salary, $15.135 million cap figure  

2017: $14 million base salary, $19 million cap figure  

2018: $19.5 million base salary, cap figure  

2019: $20.5 million base salary, cap figure 

So, simply add $5 million to each base in the first 5 seasons and the difference is what they already owed him when this deal was done.  The guarantee was basically that $25m bonus, his 2013 and 2014 money and the cash outlay of $8 million previously in 2014-2016 for a total of almost all of the $55m.  The rest is guesswork without reading the contract (which they never let me do).

It basically is a 4-year extension for $68 million through 2017.  $17 million a season for his age 33-37 year old seasons.  If the Cowboys wish to continue in 2018 or 2019 with a QB who is quite old, they can, but at $40 million that will be 100% their decision - provided they don't rework his deal several times between now and then.  And that, of course, is an idea which (now we can return to thinking about how Valley Ranch does things) history tells us that they most certainly will do as early as next spring.

But, this overall decision was not - as some are saying - another example of the Cowboys being the Cowboys.

Signing and securing your QB when you receive above-average QB play is good business in a league where the QB is vital.  Saying goodbye a year too early is a principle in place that can be applied to all sorts of transactions, but the only teams that say goodbye to their QBs are those that either don't have strong QB play or already have a confident successor ready.

And the Cowboys, in this case, are not in either of those categories.

This particular move was necessary and needed, regardless of what the message board and sports radio callers are going to say.

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