Cowboys By The Numbers: Offense

Over the next several weeks, I want to do what I attempt to do every summer, which is to take a good look back at the previous season.  There are enough people on the interweb speculating about what could happen in 2013 and what they learned from OTA's.  That is great sometimes, and I enjoy their work.  But, I usually have enough time for that at Training Camp and with the preseason games - especially this year with an elongated camp and an additional preseason game.

So, the bridge from OTA's until Oxnard is best filled by examining the previous season both from a macro view and a micro view.

First, the macro view.  The NFL keeps a few hundred different team statistics which are sorted from top to bottom for all 32 teams.  They are separated and averaged both by "All 32" and then by "playoff teams".  The second ranking is a good way to compare yourself to the 12 teams that made the NFL postseason.

So, today, I thought we could examine the offensive statistics from these files and pick out the best and worst stats from the Cowboys offense - relative to the rest of the league and to the playoff field.  Then, next time, we will give the same treatment to the Cowboys defense.

Here we go:

5 Great Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

1st Down Efficiency:  Rated 2nd in NFL with 53.6% Success Rate.  NFL Average was 47.3% and Playoff Teams averaged 48.6%

3 and Out Drives:  3rd best in NFL with 17.2%.  NFL Average = 22.7%, Playoff Average = 20.6%

3rd Down Conversions:  43.9% was 5th in NFL.  NFL Average = 38.2%, Playoff Average = 40.2%

Net Passing Yards Per Game:  295.6 per game, ranked 3rd.  NFL Average = 231.3, Playoff Average = 237.1

1st Down Passing (4 yards or more):  2nd in NFL, 59.8%.  NFL = 50.9%, Playoffs = 53.2%


This group is certainly propped up with the fantastic accumulation of numbers that were the Cowboys calling card in the latter part of the season where they abandoned all hopes of balance and power and simply let their weapons do their work.  This is where Dez Bryant emerged as a dominant player and where Tony Romo unleashed his stable of weapons that will only improve this season.  Net passing yards are way above where they need to be (and are certainly not indicative of winning football), and 1st down efficiency combined with 3rd down conversions are all where you want to be.

3rd Down conversions don't say everything, but when the top teams are all playoff teams: New England, Atlanta, Denver and the bottom 3 teams are Jacksonville, Arizona, and Cleveland - you can at least see that there is some indicator of who has elite QBs and who doesn't by how 3rd Down goes.  So, it is nice to sit at #5 in that stat.


5 Good/Average Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

Yards Per Play:  5.71, 11th in NFL.  NFL Average = 5.41, Playoff Teams Average = 5.62

Times Sacked:  36, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 37, Playoff Teams = 35

Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 61, 16th in NFL.  NFL = 60, Playoffs = 64

Offensive Points Scored:  348, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 333, Playoff Teams = 385

Time of Possession:  30:33 for 13th in NFL.  NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 30:37

The one that jumps out at you here is the issue we always discuss - 15th in points scored for all those big yardage stats above.  That is one characteristic of the Jason Garrett offense that seems to be consistent most years.  This team under performs on the scoreboard for all of the stats they put up.  This is why hearing that they have high yardage rankings doesn't mean much to people that suggest they can move the ball between the 20s all day long.  It is also interesting to see that they are only league average in explosive plays.  You would think that with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, this number should be way higher.  The Saints led the league with 77 and that is the neighborhood that you want to reside in soon with all of the weapons.


5 Poor Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

10 Play Drives:  Cowboys had 21, 32nd best in NFL.  NFL Average = 27, Playoff Teams 29

Giveaways:  29, which ranked 25th.  NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 19

Penalties Called:  117, ranked 30th.  NFL Average = 100, Playoff Teams Average = 100

Rush Plays Called:  33.8%, 31st.  NFL Average = 42.3%, Playoff teams = 45.2%

Yards Per Play in Red Zone:  2.43, 28th.  NFL Average = 2.86, Playoff Teams = 2.92


Ah, the killers.  The stats that must be focused on.  And you can argue that they have all been addressed with personnel changes and coaching initiatives in this offseason.  Their drives were too short, too penalized, too many turnovers, no runs, and inefficient in the red zone.

How many of these stats are connected?  You have to pass to move the ball, you can't hold linebackers or safeties with play action, therefore you are throwing into more coverage - more giveaways.

Also, when the field gets shorter, the gaps in the secondary get smaller, and it gets harder to move the ball.  And, of course, you cannot commit 17 more penalties a season than the field.  That is simply a self-inflicted wound that must be cleaned up.

Next time, we look at these same numbers from the defensive point of view.

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Decoding Garrett - Week 5 - Baltimore Ravens

When Jason Garrett took the head coaching job of the Dallas Cowboys, he preached the familiar sermon of nearly every coach who has ever taken a job in the sport.  He said he wanted a physical football team that was difficult to play against.  He wanted pads in practice and competition.  He wanted a more physical team that was prepared to participate and emerge victorious in a street-fight.

Talking at an introductory press conference and actually making that a reality for your squad are two different things.  It takes a determined man to call the plays and to emphasize it week in and week out.

2012 has been just the opposite for Jason Garrett.

This is where we can get in a conversation about what sort of play-calling balance leads to victory.  I think the numbers demonstrate that when this team balances up their offense - both run/pass and under center/shotgun - they discover an offense that is actually quite versatile and explosive.  That will be countered with the "chicken and egg" quandary of whether you win when you run or whether you run when you win.

Do the Cowboys win games when they run well?  Most of the time.  But, not on Sunday.

In fact, this entire conversation may ring hollow when we consider that the team lost this game on Sunday.  On the other hand, it might prove that they were a few inches from a win against a team that had not lost to any NFC opponent since 2006 and had not lost any home game since 2010.  They may not be the same Ravens anymore, but outcome-based analysis is always dangerous to engage in.

Why did the Cowboys show so much determination to run the ball?  In 36 1st down situations, they ran the ball 26 times (72%).  Under Jason Garrett, that has never happened before.  And the scoreboard was not affecting that decision, meaning that they were not running to kill the clock or bring home a lead.  They were simply running the ball because that was what they selected off the call sheet.

The other more obvious reason that they were running the ball was that they were having early success.  They kept doing it because at halftime, DeMarco Murray had 13 carries for 90 yards (6.9 per) and Felix Jones had 4 carries for 31 yards (7.8).  If something is working, keep doing it.

There was only one since Bill Parcells left town (2007-) that this team ran the ball 40 times (at Indy, 2010).  It was the 6th time the Cowboys have run for 200 yards in a game in these last 6 seasons.  Many of those other performances were followed up with enough mediocrity that we ended up calling those big rushing days a fluke.  So, before we get carried away with this notion that the Cowboys have figured something out, we better see what they do in Charlotte (the site of Tony Romo's 1st professional start) - especially with DeMarco's health status seemingly up in the air.

What was different on Sunday for the offensive line?

None other than the much-criticized center for the Cowboys, the undrafted youngster, Phil Costa.  Costa has been both a good story and a source of consternation for the same reasons.  He is a good story in that he was discovered, worked hard, and kept advancing until the Cowboys jettisoned Andre Gurode in his honor last September when they made the incredibly reckless decision to put Costa in the water to see if he could swim.

He couldn't.  In fact, the Bill Nagy/Phil Costa decisions of last September is one of the worst decisions that the front office has ever made (think about what that is saying).  They even admitted as much last March when Jerry Jones took the blame and admitted that the Cowboys got "big boy-ed" because they were too weak and undersized in the interior.  The major issue was that they just weren't very strong inside, and when teams sense that you are weak on the offensive line, they make you win battles of strength by attacking at the snap and once you lose those battles often enough, then you line up in shotgun and stop trying to run the ball altogether.

So, the Cowboys went and signed two large guards - not high quality players, but certainly larger - but left center alone and in the hands of Costa. Young players require patience, especially in the offensive line where their development can take longer than other spots.  But, Costa seemed like a lost cause to me.

Until Sunday.

I must admit that the Costa I saw on Sunday was the best I have ever seen.  This was his first real action of the season as he missed almost all of training camp with a back issue and then played 3 plays in the Giants game before Ryan Cook was thrown into duty.  We saw over 4 games that Cook had major mobility limitations and the zone blocking scheme requires a center who can move to that 2nd level and take on linebackers.  We got a good look last week at what happens when your center cannot get to the LBs - lots of bad runs that are destroyed by untouched linebackers.

But, against the Ravens, we saw Costa as a force to be reckoned with.  His mobility has always been fine, but his strength was his major issue.  But, on Sunday, he looked like a new man.  Strong, decisive, and even a bit nasty.  He put players on the ground and drove linebackers out of the screen.  I saw almost nothing to complain about, and a ton to be happy about.  Heck, there were numerous occasions where he was laying on his man with a perfect pancake block.  I didn't know he had it in him.

Did Phil Costa find strength in the off-season?  Will he be able to show us this performance again?  And how much of his play made the running game instantly make sense?  And if this is the start of something big, did the Cowboys patience in a young player pay off?  Time will tell us plenty more soon enough.

Many will point out that the Ravens make many offenses look good on the ground, so let's withhold judgement for now.


Data from Week 5 vs Baltimore

Run-Pass	42-37
Starting Field Position	D 30
1st Down Run-Pass	26-10
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.69
2nd Down Run-Pass	12-14
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.86
3rd Down Run-Pass	4-11
3rd Down Conversions	8-15, 53%

HTML Tables

The above numbers are staggering.  1st down runs, 2nd down balance, and some solid work across the board.  The offense left points on the field, but overall, these are the signs of winning football.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.

Look at the throw that was picked off in the 2nd Quarter.  It is nearly the exact same throw that was picked off in Seattle and in New York.  I imagine this is the throw that makes everyone in the film room crazy.  Throwing from outside the right hash to outside the left hash is the most dangerous throw that Romo attempts, and safeties thank him for trying it over and over again.  His improvisational skills are tremendous, but part of that depends on impulse decisions. As that black line below shows, those impulses are not always sound.

1st Half

In the 2nd half, we have much more red (incompletions).  Also, not the yellow for the two touchdowns to Dez Bryant and the red right next to it that shows the missed 2-point conversion.  That was their bread and butter.

2nd Half -

The chart below is just throws to Dez Bryant.  He was a dominant weapon for most of the day, and like his #88 inspiration, Michael Irvin, most of it is from quick passes and then strength exhibitions after the catch.  A strong, strong man indeed.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here - Look how they absolutely made a point to pound the rock on the 1st snap of nearly every play:

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Season: 52 Drives 26 Run/26 Pass - 50% Run

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.

As you can see, the situation in the game dictates the use of shotgun. The Cowboys use "Shotgun 11" as their "catch-up" mode and the more they run it, usually the worse the game is going.

Against the Ravens, we are again left to ask the questions - was this the plan all week in the game plan, or did they see what was working early and decided to follow the success with repetition?

It is no coincidence that the two best offensive performances were the games with shotgun simply a portion of the offense (30% or so) and not the majority of the offense.

Wk 1 - NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - Balt: 19/79 24%

2012 Season Total: 157/320 49%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	4	2	2-9	2-(-7)
12	32	202	18-122	14-80
13	11	51	10-47	1-4
21	9	99	6-28	3-71
22	2	14	1-3	1-11
23	2	6	2-6	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	19	109	3-12	16-97
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	79	483	42-227	37-256

Table Tutorial

Here is what we wrote last week about the absurd numbers against Chicago:

They ran just 4 plays from "12" and 3 plays out of "22" personnel.  The Cowboys have seriously abandoned something that used to be what their identity because of offensive ineptitude.

Now look.  32 plays out of 12 personnel from under center.  32!  For 202 yards.  20 more snaps from 21 and 13 personnel, for another 150 yards.  370+ yards from under center.  This is how this team can be successful.  Leave the finesse stuff in the garage.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	-7	0-0	1-(-7)	0/0
12	3	9	3-9	2-0	1/0
13	1	4	0-0	1-4	1/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	2	6	2-6	0-0	2/0
S01	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
S10	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	10	78	1-3	9-75	6/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	20	90	6-18	14-72	10/0

Table Tutorial

And this proves that you don't need to be in Shotgun on 3rd Down all of the time.  Change up your tendencies.  Don't use it as a crutch.  Use it as a weapon.  They moved the chains 4 different times from under center on 3rd Down.  That is physical football.  We are running the ball right at you and let's see you stop us.

Not finesse.  Not scared.  Physical, strong football.

It was a loss.  There are no good losses.  But, there are good things that can be discovered on bad days.

I think this offensive game-plan is the way to win.  Sunday was extreme.  You will not always get 200 yards or 40 running plays.  But, you must show your opponent on film and in person that you are not a bunch of finesse football players.  You will be happy to get in a street fight and push on them all day long.

You are happy to fire off the ball and slug them in the chops over and over.  Part of this philosophy (if not all of it) is dependent on you following up those threats with actual demonstrations of strength.

But, you cannot show people how well you can run the ball if you never actually do it.

Sunday, Garrett and company flexed muscle to show us they have it inside them.  Now, it needs to not be a rarity in the game-plan.  With plenty more battles ahead against physical teams, this is promising news that will open up opportunities down the field.

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DeMarco Murray Is The Key

When you are in the first week of training camp, things make sense. There is seldom a starting position on the roster that gives you indigestion and your depth chart generally looks like it could work if you study it from the proper angle.

But, invariably, in the game of football, you are forced to alter your depth chart and your plans. Yesterday was the first day of pads for the Dallas Cowboys. And once the pads come on, the hitting starts. And once the hitting starts, these amazing athletes begin to deliver pain to each other. And when that process takes its toll, players bodies begin to break down.

Last season, the Cowboys' express train was at nearly full speed when the injury demons grabbed DeMarco Murray in the 13th game of the season. From that point on, the Cowboys hopes circled the drain. It is difficult to place all of that disaster on the injury of Murray, but it certainly hurt the team badly when they could least afford it.

That is a truth of the game that is seldom discussed in the 1st week of August. Everyone knows it, but nobody wants to acknowledge it: If one of these few indispensable players gets injured for an extended period of time, the entire season is in big trouble. Most years, that group consists of Tony Romo and DeMarcus Ware. I think it is nearly already time that we include DeMarco Murray in that group.

For it was Murray who arrived on the scene in the Cowboys 6th game of the season after Felix Jones was injured yet again in Week 5. Murray was a prospect of some regard, but slipped in the draft for various reasons and concerns (many health and durability related). After 5 weeks, Murray had been used quite sparingly - after an injury marred training camp - and had just 73 yards in that 5 games. When you consider that he missed almost all of the final month for another injury, you are left to wonder: Who is DeMarco Murray? Is he a special talent that has dropped on the scene ready to be a difference maker? Or, is he a tease, with talents that are special but a body that might not be up to code at this level and can sustain the wear and tear of the big leagues?

In the middle 8 games of the season, when he was healthy, DeMarco rushed for about 800 yards. His pace was off the charts. He looked like a rookie who was advanced in his performance. His vision and burst was overshadowed by his determination and conviction once he got the ball in his hands. He was a determined rusher who so eclipsed Felix Jones and company that the Cowboys running back race was an open and shut case within days of his breakout against the Rams.

It was tough to completely notate what was because of Murray when it came to his monster performances in October and November. There were things that started to all happen at the same time and clearly he was a big part of it. Also, Tony Fiammetta was enjoying some health and success. Bill Nagy was replaced by Montrae Holland. And, you could make the case that the Cowboys were determined out of the bye week to emphasize the running attack at a much higher level of priority than they had early in the season. And it shouldn't be lost in the equation that the schedule had softened quite a bit with a diet of Rams, Seahawks, and Bills being devoured for his 3 biggest games. But, whatever the case, now, 100 yards from Murray per game were being turned out and the team started rattling off wins.

So, how different is the 2011 of DeMarco Murray from the 2004 of Julius Jones? Had we taken the Jones breakout of 2004 to the extreme, many would have thought the Cowboys are set at running back for a long, long time. Jones, in just 7 games at the end of 2004 ran for 803 yards in 192 carries. He was a 2nd round pick and seemed the real deal. He had 3 huge games and appeared to be in a special class of running back for 2005 and beyond. Trouble was, Jones never really found that groove again and despite 2005 and 2006 being reasonable, the Cowboys were happy to replace him when his rookie contract expired. They realized his special qualities were a mirage an the fell more into the "dime a dozen" bin before 2006 had ended.

Is Murray something that can be counted on for more? In his 7 game stretch from St Louis to Arizona, Murray ran for 799 yards. Now, the distinction would certainly be the yards per carry as Jones had a pedestrian 4 yards a carry in his breakout and Murray was up at 6 yards a carry. But, the number of games and the number of yards for both of them in their brief stretch in their rookie season makes you link the two together as we hit training camp of 2012.

Is there a reason to believe that Murray is more than Julius Jones? Could he blow by Marion Barber, Troy Hambrick, Julius Jones, Felix Jones, and Tashard Choice to grab the label as "Best RB since Emmitt?" Doesn't seem unattainable, but it starts with remaining healthy. Murray had 900 touches at Oklahoma, so no matter what people tell you about his durability or nagging injuries, on Saturdays for the Sooners, he was often front and center and carrying the mail. His ability to take on the work load was just fine when you are talking 225 touches each season for 4 years at the major college level.

But, now, on Sundays, the players are bigger and stronger. The hits come at a more violent speed. And his style, that is powerful and absorbs a lot of contact, may put him in harm's way quite a bit. In many ways, he is the hope of this offense. What would Tony Romo and the offense look like with a legitimate RB who demands the 8th man in the box? What could they accomplish if Romo actually had a weapon behind him that put fear in the defense?

Emmitt Smith hardly ever missed action as a running back in the NFL. In fact, he missed just 7 games as a Cowboys, and 2 of those were a contract issue. So, of the 206 other games Dallas played with Emmitt under contract, he was front and center for 201 of them (97.5%). So, that is the standard. And with Murray already breaking an ankle in his first year, the odds of him having durability in that class are highly unlikely. But, nobody wants Emmitt Smith. They simply want a player that makes defenses fear the Cowboys RB more than Felix Jones ever could. More than Barber and yes, more than Julius Jones.

They look like they have found a real difference maker, but as we head into his 2nd year, the Cowboys will need Murray to stay on the field. That is a very difficult trick for RBs in the NFL. The life span is short and the punishment is immense. It only takes one hit in the wrong place to end his run and if you are running this organization, there is a fair amount of holding your breath.

He has the burst and the ability. But, does he have the ability to take his 20 touches Sunday after Sunday? Is he someone with staying power, or like the Julius Jones jerseys on the clearance rack, will it be a flash in the pan that delighted the fans but certainly did not last as long as they hoped?

If he has the ability to take 300 touches in 2012, the Cowboys can have a real big season. If not, 8-8 could be right back in play.

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X's And O's Breakdown - 36 Inches to Paydirt

December 2009. Week 13. Critical matchup at home against San Diego for the Cowboys. Down 10-3, the Cowboys have marched from their own 27-yard line all the way down the field in 12 plays. 11 of the 12 plays were runs, and the 12th play was an incomplete pass. They have driven the entire field without ever completing a pass. This is a real show of strength against one of the best defensive fronts in football.

1 yard to go. 2nd and goal from the 1 yard line. Dive play where Marion Barber, behind FB Deon Anderson, is stopped just short of the goal-line. 3rd and goal, another Barber dive is again stopped just short. 4th and goal. "23" personnel for the 3rd straight play. This time, Felix Jones is deep and Marion Barber is lined up as the fullback. The Cowboys give again to Barber and the 4th down play is the worst of them all. 3 cracks from the 1 fail, and the Cowboys lose 20-17.



A topic that has been discussed at great length in just about every circle of the Cowboys' kingdom this week has been red zone problems. There is no doubt that the inefficiency of this offense can be traced on some level to the inability of the team to produce as many points as their yardage indicates they are earning.

Countless coaches - including Bill Parcells who hammered this point home in many Cowboys' press briefings - would tell us that a football team needs to get 7 points for every 100 yards of offense in a given game. Anything less would draw our attention to the efficiency of the offense. Yards are yards, until you get to the 1-yard line. Then you need that yard. And the Cowboys have constantly failed there in recent seasons.

Since the start of the 2009 season, the Cowboys have had 40 plays from the 1-yard line. 36 inches from a touchdown, many times with the outcome of the game hanging in the balance. On only 13 occasions were the Cowboys able to punch it in for a Touchdown. 13 of 40 is an absurdly low success rate of 32% when a team has to only make 3 feet or less to break the plane of the goal-line.

Passing the ball for the Touchdown has become the route to success on most occasions - although to be fair, neither has been converting at a high enough level.. Normally from play action from a heavy personnel set, the Cowboys have converted 7 Touchdowns on 17 pass attempts (41%) for scores from the 1 since 2009. This, of course, means that amazingly, just 6 of 23 run attempts (26%) have been punched in from the 1-yard line. That success rate is almost comically bad.

So, after the deflating sequence in the Seattle game where Dallas had 3 cracks at the 1 and failed to find the endzone. It is maddening and sends many to their keyboards to voice another dissertation about how Jason Garrett lacks imagination and the ability to lead this Dallas squad any further. But, I think it goes back to that issue that has been haunting the Cowboys for a long, long time: No faith in their offensive line. And after switching out the members of the offensive line, it appears that their power down by the goal-line is still just a dream rather than a reality.

Since the start of 2010, there have been 31 snaps from the 1 yard line. During that stretch, the Cowboys have scored just 11 Touchdowns in 31 attempts from the 1 (35%).

Below, you will see the "23" package, which has been used in 20 of the last 31 snaps from the 1 yard line by Jason Garrett. 7 of the 20 plays resulted in Touchdowns (3 run TDs, 4 pass TDs). "23" is the biggest personnel group in the arsenal. 3 TEs, a FB, and a RB. It amounts to 8 OL-types and a lead blocker to help get the RB just 1 yard. And it has not done the job. 35% success rate.



The following is a chart that shows the 31 snaps from the 1-yard line since Week 1 2010 for the Cowboys offense:

Package	Plays Run	TDs	Run	Pass
13	1	1	1-1 TD	0-0
21	1	0	1-0	0-0
22	4	0	2-0	2-0
23	21	7	11-3 TDs	10-4 TDs
S11	4	3	1-1 TD	3-2 TDs
Totals	31	11	16-5 TDs	15-6 TDs

Table Tutorial

I think the chart shows something that may seem counter-intuititve to those of us who value power football. The Cowboys, at least in this sample size, are not capable of showing any strength for that last important yard; especially in "power" formations that feature multiple TEs and FBs.

And, the evidence does concede that Barber was the best choice in these running situations. Marion Barber was the best at 5-12 from the 1-yard line on run plays, but the Cowboys weren't going to keep a RB for strictly short yardage at his salary. Tashard Choice was 1-6 and the only other runner to get a crack before 2011 in this study. This season, Felix Jones is 1-2 and DeMarco Murray is 0-1.

But, this research project does appear to give us one nugget of goodness. 4 times in 2010, the team lined up in S11 and they scored TDs on 3 of the 4 occasions. Could you imagine the outrage if they get to the 1 and then try to run the shotgun offense out there and fail? I admit that I would lead that charge before I did the research. But, now, seeing how poorly this team is able to get that most important yard on the field, I am tempted to make sure Jason Garrett reads this study and considers the findings. They are two-fold: 1) using traditional means, what they are trying is not working. Not even close. And 2) albeit with a small sample size (4 tries), the Cowboys are best at spreading the defense out and either passing or running out of shotgun. Shotgun TDs from the 1 against Jacksonville, Detroit, and Philadelphia in 2010 seem to at least give us something to consider. Only 1 failure (Washington in Week 14) can be found in the data. 3 out of 4 is impressive. 8 out of 27 with all other formations is not.

2011 Season

Now, here is the chart for 2011 only. In the first 8 games, there have been 9 occasions for a snap at the opponent's 1 yard line. So far, they are 4 out of 9 from the 1 yard line. But, I still think we are not seeing much improvement.

Package	Plays Run	TDs	Run	Pass
13	1	1	1-1 TD	0-0
23	8	3	2-0	6-3 TDs
Totals	9	4	3-1 TD	6-3 TDs

Table Tutorial

Let's look at each of the nine plays. I have made a reel of all 9 snaps on video for you to look at as we go. You can see them all by clicking on this link.

1. Week 1 at Jets - Play #47 - 1/G/1 - "23" - Following a review that ruled Sean Lee's interception was out at the 1, the Cowboys run "23" without a FB on the roster. Enter Josh Brent as the new short yardage FB. Martin Rucker and John Phillips at TE on the left, Witten on the right. Play Action fake to Jones for the dive and only Witten is in the route. LB David Harris stays with Romo so there is no other option. Romo throws the ball out of the end-zone because it is 1st Down. INCOMPLETE

2. Week 1 at Jets - Play #48 - 2/G/1 - "13" - On this play, the Cowboys have Miles Austin outside Rucker on the right. This weapon keeps the Jets' DBs honest and Revis sets up over Austin. Rucker off RT and Witten off LT. Phillips lines up at FB. Now, the stretch play to the left with the zone blocking technique up front. Jones takes the handoff and 70-Mike Devito shoves LG Bill Nagy back. However, the play goes wide enough that Felix follows a convoy of Doug Free, Witten, and Phillips into the end zone. This is the one and only rushing TD in 9 plays from the 1 in 2011. TOUCHDOWN

3. Week 4 vs Lions - Play #18 - 4/G/1 - "23" - This may be the play that has spooked the Cowboys and their fans the most. The Cowboys showed a lot of courage - or stupidity - on this play as they attempted to ram the ball right into the jaws of the stout Detroit defensive front. And not only the front, but right at RT and rookie Tyron Smith who was attempting to block Ndamukong Suh and to give FB Josh Brent a chance to dig out the LB for Felix Jones. Everyone blocks straight up and Brent is supposed to clear a gap. But, Smith gets defeated soundly by Suh and turned, so Brent decides to help out on Suh. By this point, Will LB Ashlee Palmer is there to close down Jones and Corey Williams arrives to further doom the play. It looks like Jones runs into Brent and the play is over - as is the possession. TURNOVER ON DOWNS

4. Week 4 vs Lions - Play #44 - 1/G/1 - "23" - After Kevin Ogletree's reception is ruled by replay to be down at the 1, the Cowboys have another scenario on the goal-line against Detroit. This time, perhaps their run earlier in the game (above) was in the head of the Detroit LBs, because 55-Tulloch runs right by Jason Witten to bite on the play fake. This time, Kosier is defeated at the line, but the play fake puts Phillips and Witten in route. Since nobody covers Witten, this is an easy TD for Romo to hit on what appeared to be a route of Detroit at the time. TOUCHDOWN

5. Week 5 at Patriots - Play #35 - 2/G/1 - "23" - Right before the half in Foxboro, the Cowboys are faced with 2nd and Goal. Here, they try Witten and Bennett on the right of Smith and Phillips on the left. The play calls for a play fake right with Witten dragging across the OL to the left. The play is almost doomed because of all of the chaos on the line of scrimmage as Smith is being tossed back at the snap by Vince Wilfork. Witten, Smith, and Josh Brent almost all collide, but Witten jumps through and navigates to the flat where he is found by Romo and just crosses the goal-line. A tricky play that is executed, but perhaps demonstrates to the coaches that again that this offensive line cannot win a goal-line pushing match against a solid front. TOUCHDOWN

6. Week 6 vs Rams - Play #13 - 3/G/1 - "23" - This is the first scenario with a FB - Tony Fiammetta and DeMarco Murray at RB. As you can see on the replay, it is alarming how nobody even considers the run fake on the Rams' defense. But, it appears MLB James Laurinaitis is out to lunch and this leaves 27-Quintin Mikell in the very unenviable position of trying to cover 2 men in the end zone. Fiammetta is shallow across the line and Witten goes deep. With only 1 defender, Romo waits for Mikell to choose and throws the other way. Again, the Cowboys are happy to accept a blown assignment for a score. TOUCHDOWN

7. Week 8 vs Seahawks - Play #22 - 1/G/1 - "23" - Here is the first real QB mistake that we see in this study. On this play, it seems rather clear that John Phillips is open for a large amount of time (by goal-line standards) as all Seattle LBs bit on the fake. Notice Montrae Holland pulling out to LT to help pass protect as well. Romo is locked on Witten here and it costs him an easy Touchdown to Phillips. Seattle is not going to let Witten out of their sight and Fiammetta is covered in the flat. After leaving Witten, he decides to fire it out of the back of the end zone and move to 2nd Down. That is a good decision, but a missed chance. INCOMPLETE

8. Week 8 vs Seahawks - Play #23 - 2/G/1 - "23" - This is a play that we have seen the Cowboys get away with a number of times under Garrett. This is not one of them. It is a power run to the right side - complete with the rare pulling guard on the goal-line and then as the entire play is going right, Romo pitches it to the weakside for the RB to run on his own to the left pylon. The idea is that the LBs will read the guard and all follow their reads. Instead, the play doesn't go as planned. Costa is blown up in the middle, but the play is designed for Murray to beat the unblocked DE (91-Cleamons) to the corner. It appears on the replay that Murray could still get to the corner and that Free and Witten have blocked the play properly. It is complete speculation, but I am curious if the offensive coaches feel this play could have worked if Murray did not cut back and just try to win the footrace to the corner. 0 YARD GAIN

9. Week 8 vs Seahawks - Play #24 - 3/G/1 - "23" - Now, the 3rd crack from the 1, and Garrett is not about to try another run. I really wonder not trying a simple power lead here as Fiammetta, Holland, and Murray were all added since the Detroit game, and frankly the running game looks 100% improved. To get 3 cracks from the 1 and just to run 2 passes and a trick run is easy to 2nd guess. But, Garrett wanted play action and the Seahawks blitzed a safety from over Witten's shoulder on the right. Then, their coverage of Murray and Witten quickly left Romo in a jam. He did well to avoid a sack, but the play was doomed. INCOMPLETE

There they are. 4 TDs in 9 attempts, but only 1 Rushing TD and almost a reluctance to even try a straight-up run.

Which leads me back to the idea of spreading out the defense and loosening up the middle. A shotgun run or even a QB draw would be an option, as would a number of pass routes. If the Cowboys were any good out of power sets, they should stay with them, but it seems their only success has been to Witten - and now the defense has been studying these scenarios and seem to be sitting on Romo's favorite target.

It would seem the evidence that ranges back 3 season indicates that a power run is something the coaches do not believe is possible. It seems silly to use that power run as the basis from a play action fake any longer.

Now that the NFL reviews all scoring plays in 2011, an opposing coach no longer has to choose whether or not to burn a challenge on a play that is either a TD or 1st and Goal at the 1-foot line. But, when playing the Cowboys, you can understand the league-wide reluctance to concede a TD rather than making Dallas prove they can punch it in.

They obviously really struggle to do so. 13 of 40 is a 3-year trend that must be fixed.

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Decoding Garrett - Week 8 - Data - Seattle

"Winning 1st Down". The basic battle ground of a football game starts for all involved on winning 1st Down. Anyone who consumes NFL press conferences will often hear a coach talk about this topic and often not quite understand the ramifications of what it all means. After all, as a fan, 1st Down hardly ever seems vital in its outcome. This is where coaches and fans see things quite differently.

1st and 10 is the ultimate 50/50 split play. The defensive team must sit on the years and years of data at nearly all levels of football that say on 1st and 10 tendencies do not reveal anything. 50% of their positioning, strategy, and technique is to defend against the run and 50% is to prepare for the pass. A defense must play it "straight up" because the offense is looking to take advantage of as coaches say, "whatever the defense gives them".

Meanwhile, offensive coaches are talking about "staying on schedule". This means that they prefer to always remain in the 50/50 scenario inside the defense's head. What does this mean? Well, if 1st and 10 is 50/50, so is 2nd and 6 or less. 2nd and 12 or 2nd and 9 is a pass-heavy down. And on 3rd Down, the entire league passes, but if the team is to stay where it is 50/50, you would need 3rd and short. Let's say 3rd and less than 3.

If you get behind schedule, now the defense is not concerned with your run attack. And if they can eliminate run plays from their focus, then this is where you get coverage issues and blitz situations. And this is where nearly every offense finds operating more difficult.

So, if you can weed through the cliches and the armor of Jason Garrett when he talks offense, you will find a guy who believes in offensive balance and staying on schedule (as does pretty much every coach this side of Mike Leach). This is certainly now a pass-first league with offenses just running 42% and passing 58%, but 1st Down remains what it always has. 50/50, or 50.7% run and 49.3% pass so far league-wide in 2011 to be precise.

Which brings us to the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have run 250 snaps out on 1st Down this year and run the ball 50.8% of the time (127/123). When they move to 2nd Down, the splits are now 71/103 (41% run). And of course on 3rd Down, it drops off the table to 17/79 or 17% runs. Defenses collect this data and it helps them determine what sub-packages to utilize in a given down and distance situation. Of course, offenses use the same charts to determine ideal plays for ideal Down and Distance opportunities as well. Every coach has plenty of plays for 3rd and 3, but they will all tell you there is no play for 3rd and 16,

In effect, everything you do as an offense starts on 1st and 10. And that is why we keep the numbers that we do in the first box every week. We want to see the Run/Pass splits according to down, and more importantly, we want to see how many yards to go the Cowboys were asking of themselves on 2nd and 3rd Down. This team is having major issues this season on 3rd Downs (35%) and most of those issues happen when they get in too many "3rd and Long" spots. The entire NFL converts just 19% on 3rd and 10+, and the Cowboys are even worse at 17%.

RESULTS VS SEATTLE

Why am I writing all of this after the offense played so well against Seattle until it fell into the red zone? Because, the Cowboys were quite successful on 1st Down in this game, and everything else fell into place. The important statistic known as "average yards to go on 2nd Down" produced the best result of the season (6.33). Across the NFL, teams average 7.97 yards to go on 2nd Down. The Cowboys mark is slightly better at 7.89. So, the mark of 6.33 is very strong. This means they were getting plenty of good things done on 1st Down. The running game was strong and that made the Seahawks bring a safety up to help defend against DeMarco Murray. When they walk a safety up, that is when Romo is ready to go to the air on 1st Down.

Fans will tell you this is Garrett finally realizing that he should throw the ball down the field. Garrett will tell you that this doesn't happen if the Seahawks don't fear the running game and commit a safety up in the box. And, the Seahawks don't fear the run if there is nothing to fear.

4 times on Sunday, Garrett and Romo "took a shot" down the field. I imagine this is a season high for deep routes, but I my memory could be failing. The Witten busted coverage TD is not included here as that was a developing pass play that was simply Romo going through his reads. But, the 4 shots below were all designed as the 1st and sometimes only option of the pass play down the field.

Deep Shot #1 - Play #7 - 1/10/D30 - 21 Personnel - 39 yards to Bryant
Deep Shot #2 - Play #19 - 3/4/D32 - S12 Personnel - 37 yards to Austin
Deep Shot #3 - Play #41 - 1/10/D31 - 12 Personnel - INC down sideline to Austin
Deep Shot #4 - Play #50a - 1/10/O35 - 21 Personnel - INC down sideline to Robinson

Notice, 3 are on 1st and 10 when the defense is looking for the 50/50 run possibilities. 2 are with Tony Fiammetta back there as a fullback, thus getting the strong safety's attention. In fact, on the first shot - the completion to Bryant in the 1st Quarter, Earl Thomas is blitzing and Fiammetta picks him up.



The image above shows Thomas sneaking up to the 35 yard line as the 8th man in the box. They are ready to take on the run. And that leaves Bryant and Austin in a man-to-man situation with a free safety over the top. And when there is a single-high safety, he cannot protect the sideline route. It is simply too much ground to cover.

So, does this pass happen if they are in a 2-Deep situation as in the week before at Philadelphia? No. The pass is not there. The threat of the run is what makes this play possible.

The same is true on the other two 1st Down passes down the field. Hold the safeties and take a shot. This isn't to say that deep throws can never happen without a running game making the opponent respect you, but it does demonstrate that things get so much easier if you can run the football.

1st Down shots to your Wide Receivers down the field. Is there enough time to pass protect? If you do it on 1st Down, there will be much more. And, the final two "shots" were both the drive starters. After interceptions, Garrett/Romo went for the throat on 1st and 10. Look for this as the season continues to develop.

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Data from Week 8

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49

Wk 8 - Sea 19/59

Total - 211/503 41.9%

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Here is the Game Data from Week 8:

Look at the great stats on 2nd and 3rd down yardage to go. You will take that every week and you will win.

Run-Pass	28-31
1st Down Run-Pass	12-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.33
2nd Down Run-Pass	14-6
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.14
3rd Down Run-Pass	3-11
3rd Down Conversions	6-14, 43%

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Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. On Sunday, The Cowboys had a surprising number of 1st play passes. In fact, some were downfield. A very aggressive game plan from the coach.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass

Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Total: 90 Drives - 39 Run/51 Pass 43% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here we look at how the Cowboys did with each personnel package. Once again we see that packages that involve FB Fiammetta are far more efficient than the packages that don't. He, of course, is the lead blocker in "21" and "22". And the 79 run plays from 21 and 22 this season have yielded 628 yards or 7.94 yards per carry. However, in "11", "12", and "13" personnel (no FB or a TE lined up as a FB) the Cowboys have tried 90 run plays this season for just 243 yards - 2.7 yards per carry. That sample should also account for Murray in place of Felix on most carries, but that is a startling number.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	6	58	1-2	5-56
13	1	8	0-0	1-8
21	9	78	6-70	3-8
22	20	130	18-113	2-17
23	3	0	1-0	2-0
S01	1	6	0-0	1-6
S02	4	52	0-0	4-52
S11	10	66	0-0	10-66
S12	4	42	1-4	3-38
Knee	1	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	442	28-191	31-251

Table Tutorial

And now those same numbers on 3rd and 4th Downs. Efficiency here needs to be a focus point in the 2nd half. The elite offenses are out performing the Cowboys by a shocking advantage.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	2	1-2	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	14	1-14	0-0	1/0
23	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
S01	1	6	0-0	1-6	0/1
S02	3	46	0-0	3-46	1/0
S11	5	30	0-0	5-30	2/0
S12	2	41	1-4	1-37	1/0
Totals	14	139	3-20	11-119	5/1

Table Tutorial

All in all, a very strong offensive game where they were sabotaged by the offense for quite a while.

Tomorrow, let's break down the issues with the goal-line offense in our X's and O's breakdown. And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

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The Morning After: Cowboys 23, Seahawks 13 (4-4)

There are Sundays every season that come to symbolize the full tapestry of a campaign and rise above all other game as those rare moments to savor.

Yesterday's win over the Seattle Seahawks will not be one of those.

Rather, if it is remembered at all, it will only serve to strengthen the debates of those that consider the Dallas Cowboys to simply be a middle-of-the-road squad that can beat bad teams without style points and struggle against league heavyweights. After being humiliated in Philadelphia one week before, the Cowboys faithful were anticipating a show of strength that would quiet those pessimists.

But, that flexing of the muscles never fully materialized as the Cowboys struggled to string a full drive together with a punctuating score at the end. And while the offense was wasting large amounts of yardage, the defense was allowing Seattle - a squad that doesn't run the football - to pound the ball down the field with rather surprising ease. Without the real threat of a passing attack, the Seahawks were able to ask questions of a Cowboys front 7 that were attempting to carry on in the absence of their run stopper, Sean Lee. And Dallas did not have all of the answers. Marshawn Lynch and Seattle matched everything the Cowboys rushing attack could produce down to nearly the very last yard. On the ground, Dallas yielded 163 yards on 29 attempts and Seattle rolled up 162 yards on 30 attempts. Every rushing play for either team averaged out to 5.5 yards per carry.

3 times in the 1st half alone, the Cowboys offense put together an outstanding drive that threatened to take the game by the scruff of the neck. But, all 3 drives hit a wall right outside the goal-line and instead of racking up 21 points to compliment their 300 yards of 1st half offense, the team was stuck in a 6-6 tie.

The drives stalled for different reasons, but mostly the first two again demonstrated that the Cowboys are one of the least efficient offenses in the NFL when it comes to sticking in Touchdowns from the "red zone". Entering the game, they were in the bottom handful, and their 1-3 performance on Sunday isn't going to help. And technically, one could suggest they were 1-4, but the Dez Bryant fumble at the 1 will not count as a red zone failure since the play started at the 24 yard line. The fans took notice, however, that those final 36 inches on the field are serving as a real issue for this offense to find its true potential.

In the end, the Cowboys won a game that offered a drama-free 4th Quarter for the 3rd straight week. That, of course, is a welcome change for hearts everywhere from the last second results in each of the first 5 games of the year. But, the alternating of wins and losses must halt in November for this team to seriously challenge for post-season participation.

So what has been learned from the 1st half of the 2011 campaign? It would be difficult to fully summarize, really. Wins over Washington, St Louis, and Seattle would indicate that the Cowboys can beat bad teams. A win over San Francisco looks better each week that the 49ers continue to beat every opponent they face. Losses to the Jets, Lions, Patriots, and Eagles would reveal that against playoff teams, the Cowboys have yet to put it all together against teams equal or superior in talent.

Which leads one to the obvious beacon of hope for the 2011 Cowboys and beyond. DeMarco Murray. If there is a reason to feel that the Dallas Cowboys could get on a run of form that could vault them above the mediocrity of 4-4 at the halfway mark, adding a running back that can offer a contribution that is a level or two above what they have received for the last several years would be just what the football doctor ordered.

He may not be as good as he has shown in the last 3 weeks, but even if he is close to that level, the Cowboys have their RB of the present and the future. Jerry Jones indicated yesterday in the locker-room that talk of Murray being the starter over a healthy Felix Jones moving forward is premature. That sentiment further illustrates Jones' general lack of recognition on many football matters, despite his insistence on being the decision maker at most turns.

Murray has just finished a 3-game stretch where he has carried the ball 55 times for 466 yards. 8.5 yards per carry! Behind the exact same offensive line that hasn't been able to run the ball all season? 11 carries of 10 yards or more? 18 carries for 1st downs and another for a 91 yard touchdown. Add in 45 more yards receiving (which was said to be his strength on draft day) and you have a player who has generated 500 yards of offense in 3 games.

What makes Murray most impressive is his ability to make runs out of very little. The Cowboys offensive line remains lacking in many categories - especially along the interior where much of the running game's success is generated. But with Murray carrying the mail - and fullback Tony Fiammetta's excellent work - the Cowboys are seeing runs with no hole yielding a handful of yards, and runs with a slight hole are being seized by Murray for 8 or 12. In effect, he is accomplishing what every team so badly desires, a decisive runner who can at times generate something out of nothing.

He plants his foot, makes a cut, and goes. He does not dance and wait. He seems to already know that at the NFL level, a gap is there for but a split-second and then it disappears and the runner will be engulfed in a sea of humanity. But, Murray is showing a level of instinct and execution from the running game that has not been seen in Dallas for years.

That pace is superhuman and should not be projected moving forward, but to compare it to the work of Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, or Marion Barber is simply no-contest. If a rookie does it once, it can be considered a fluke. When he has a 55-carry sample, then a team has a starter moving forward unless the injured starter was a dominant All-Pro. Felix Jones was certainly a player who had his opportunities and will get more. But, if Jerry has serious reservations about moving Murray into the full-time role, then one would have to seriously question his attention to the last 3 games.

The historical ramifications of the last 3 weeks with Murray are quite clear. This chart shows the 5 best 3-game stretches by a RB in Cowboys' history:

RB	Year	3 Game Total Yards
D Murray	2011	466
E Smith	1993	446
J Jones	2004	436
E Smith	1994	434
E Smith	1993	433

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Julius Jones had a similar run in 2004 and then was never close to replicating it again. What made Emmitt Smith one of the best runners of all-time was consistency and durability. The search for another Emmitt Smith seems like a pointless endeavor, but that doesn't mean that jobs shouldn't be challenged and regardless of tenure or salary, the better man should get the nod. Felix's best 3 game stretch of his career was 228 yards in 2010. Barber had a 3 game stretch of 285 in 2008. Troy Hambrick even had 300 yards over 3 games in 2003.

But, this rookie looks to be above the quality level of any Cowboys runner since Emmitt. Time will tell as durability and game-planning are his next proving grounds, but there should be no question who holds the job moving forward.

Fox's Tim Ryan astutely pointed out that Tony Romo has never had a reliable and complete back at his disposal in the offense. There has never been a reason to bring a safety down in the box on a consistent basis to respect the runner. That might be changing.

And if it is changing, the Cowboys may be getting ready to go on a run.

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