Cowboys By The Numbers: Offense

Over the next several weeks, I want to do what I attempt to do every summer, which is to take a good look back at the previous season.  There are enough people on the interweb speculating about what could happen in 2013 and what they learned from OTA's.  That is great sometimes, and I enjoy their work.  But, I usually have enough time for that at Training Camp and with the preseason games - especially this year with an elongated camp and an additional preseason game.

So, the bridge from OTA's until Oxnard is best filled by examining the previous season both from a macro view and a micro view.

First, the macro view.  The NFL keeps a few hundred different team statistics which are sorted from top to bottom for all 32 teams.  They are separated and averaged both by "All 32" and then by "playoff teams".  The second ranking is a good way to compare yourself to the 12 teams that made the NFL postseason.

So, today, I thought we could examine the offensive statistics from these files and pick out the best and worst stats from the Cowboys offense - relative to the rest of the league and to the playoff field.  Then, next time, we will give the same treatment to the Cowboys defense.

Here we go:

5 Great Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

1st Down Efficiency:  Rated 2nd in NFL with 53.6% Success Rate.  NFL Average was 47.3% and Playoff Teams averaged 48.6%

3 and Out Drives:  3rd best in NFL with 17.2%.  NFL Average = 22.7%, Playoff Average = 20.6%

3rd Down Conversions:  43.9% was 5th in NFL.  NFL Average = 38.2%, Playoff Average = 40.2%

Net Passing Yards Per Game:  295.6 per game, ranked 3rd.  NFL Average = 231.3, Playoff Average = 237.1

1st Down Passing (4 yards or more):  2nd in NFL, 59.8%.  NFL = 50.9%, Playoffs = 53.2%


This group is certainly propped up with the fantastic accumulation of numbers that were the Cowboys calling card in the latter part of the season where they abandoned all hopes of balance and power and simply let their weapons do their work.  This is where Dez Bryant emerged as a dominant player and where Tony Romo unleashed his stable of weapons that will only improve this season.  Net passing yards are way above where they need to be (and are certainly not indicative of winning football), and 1st down efficiency combined with 3rd down conversions are all where you want to be.

3rd Down conversions don't say everything, but when the top teams are all playoff teams: New England, Atlanta, Denver and the bottom 3 teams are Jacksonville, Arizona, and Cleveland - you can at least see that there is some indicator of who has elite QBs and who doesn't by how 3rd Down goes.  So, it is nice to sit at #5 in that stat.


5 Good/Average Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

Yards Per Play:  5.71, 11th in NFL.  NFL Average = 5.41, Playoff Teams Average = 5.62

Times Sacked:  36, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 37, Playoff Teams = 35

Explosive Plays (Plays of 20 yards or more): 61, 16th in NFL.  NFL = 60, Playoffs = 64

Offensive Points Scored:  348, 15th in the NFL.  NFL Average = 333, Playoff Teams = 385

Time of Possession:  30:33 for 13th in NFL.  NFL Average = 30:00, Playoff Teams 30:37

The one that jumps out at you here is the issue we always discuss - 15th in points scored for all those big yardage stats above.  That is one characteristic of the Jason Garrett offense that seems to be consistent most years.  This team under performs on the scoreboard for all of the stats they put up.  This is why hearing that they have high yardage rankings doesn't mean much to people that suggest they can move the ball between the 20s all day long.  It is also interesting to see that they are only league average in explosive plays.  You would think that with Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray, this number should be way higher.  The Saints led the league with 77 and that is the neighborhood that you want to reside in soon with all of the weapons.


5 Poor Stats from the Cowboys Offense in 2012

10 Play Drives:  Cowboys had 21, 32nd best in NFL.  NFL Average = 27, Playoff Teams 29

Giveaways:  29, which ranked 25th.  NFL Average = 25, Playoffs = 19

Penalties Called:  117, ranked 30th.  NFL Average = 100, Playoff Teams Average = 100

Rush Plays Called:  33.8%, 31st.  NFL Average = 42.3%, Playoff teams = 45.2%

Yards Per Play in Red Zone:  2.43, 28th.  NFL Average = 2.86, Playoff Teams = 2.92


Ah, the killers.  The stats that must be focused on.  And you can argue that they have all been addressed with personnel changes and coaching initiatives in this offseason.  Their drives were too short, too penalized, too many turnovers, no runs, and inefficient in the red zone.

How many of these stats are connected?  You have to pass to move the ball, you can't hold linebackers or safeties with play action, therefore you are throwing into more coverage - more giveaways.

Also, when the field gets shorter, the gaps in the secondary get smaller, and it gets harder to move the ball.  And, of course, you cannot commit 17 more penalties a season than the field.  That is simply a self-inflicted wound that must be cleaned up.

Next time, we look at these same numbers from the defensive point of view.

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A Brief History of 12 Personnel

I was going through my notes to see when we really started talking about one of the latest trends to the NFL and you will be interested to know that not so long ago - as late 2008 - we as football fans associated 2 tight ends on the field as a running posture, formation, and personnel group.

This is because the NFL did, too.  The Cowboys had their elite #1 tight end in the form of the great Jason Witten, and that seemed to lock down that spot rather comfortably from the first draft of the new Bill Parcells regime. The premise of putting multiple tight ends on the field at the same time was a great way to cause mass confusion down on the goal-line when the defense adjusted to your personnel substitutions by sitting on the run, only to have your QB pull the ball back and then lob it to your blocking tight end who is standing all alone in the shadow of the goal post.  It was sound tactically to assume that a man who was a blocker was always going to block.  Remember, what is now basic football, was still being figured out in 2010 when the New England Patriots took Arizona's Rob Gronkowski in the 2nd round and Florida's Aaron Hernandez in the 5th round of that draft.

Before that, others had tried it, but nobody had married the idea as a major part of their attack that proved as effective as the design had hoped.

Locally, Jason Garrett had seen the future, and he tried to make it happen before the Patriots ever did.  As early as 2008, it was clear what he was thinking, and although it never fully was realized, looking back, his position as a bright offensive mind seems safe in the retelling of the evolution.

Dan Campbell made a living in Dallas (2003-2005 as one of Parcells' 1st signings) and the NFL for a decade, without ever catching more than 22 balls in a season.  He was there to provide you with what amounted to a 6th offensive lineman.  He could block and pass protect, and if you forgot about him, he could hurt you with a rare reception that would make you pay.

As far as receiving tight ends, if you drafted one, you were often doing it to either replace the one you have or just providing insurance because asking Dan Campbell to be Jason Witten for the year in the event of a big injury would be a very bad situation.  The Cowboys drafted Anthony Fasano in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft, but at the time, Fasano was simply seen as a more dynamic #2 behind Witten than Campbell, who was getting older and wasn't exactly cheap.  Campbell went to Detroit and Fasano started to learn behind Witten.

Fasano never exceeded anything Campbell did in Dallas statistically, as a 2nd round pick he never caught 15 passes in a season for the Cowboys in 2006-2007, and thus was traded to Miami (back to Parcells) before the 2008 draft for pennies on the dollar.  But, during his tenure with Dallas, it seemed that when Witten and Fasano were on the field together, there was nothing exotic going on tactically, that was intended to do anything more than what was being done back in 1995 with Jay Novecek and Eric Bjornson.  2 tight ends meant either a running play, a maximum protection situation, or a surprise attack in short yardage for a dink and dunk.  The same as it ever was - which is why many of us were confused with using resources like a 2nd round pick on a guy like Fasano who was never asked to do much that Campbell wasn't asked to do.  It really made little sense.

But, now, after admitting that Garrett had little plans for Fasano and trading him back to Parcells and new Dolphins coach Tony Sparano (who was in Dallas from 2003-2007), the Cowboys needed a 2nd tight end again.  This time, with yet another 2nd round pick investment, the Cowboys reeled in the very intriguing Martellus Bennett, a giant of a specimen, from Texas A and M.  At 6'7, over 250 lbs, and very interesting speed, he seemed like nothing that resembled a backup tight end.  He seemed destined to ultimately replace Jason Witten if he ever achieved his topside or if Witten started to decline over time - both reasonable possibilities by 2010.

However, what none of us saw was a rather new idea being discussed and conceived in the coaches meeting rooms where they were attempting to design an offense that deployed multiple tight ends who were weapons in their versatility.  They were not blocking tight ends or 6th OL men, they were dangerous matchup issues who would ultimately give defenses fits.  They could block, but they were receiving threats who played a style that if you dared to put a linebacker on them in coverage, they would run right past them.  But, if you decided to try a safety or a nickel corner, they would simply run a 10 yard route and then like a power forward boxing out for a rebound, they would turn and use their body to keep a smallish DB on their back, make the catch, and move the chains.  That was taking candy from a baby and a great alternative to a slot receiver who was a smaller target and a player you would never ask to block much.

This offense was not designed for simply short yardage spots.  If they could make this work, it would be all-purpose and all-situations, just as effective on 1st down as 3rd and goal.   It would hypothetically require the defense into a classic conflict situation where there was no correct remedy.  It would force the defense's hand in personnel, and whatever they choose, the offense would exploit the opposite.

If you loaded up to stop the run, Garrett could flex out Witten and Bennett as slot receivers and you would be undermanned to stop 2 TEs and 2 WRs outside.  But, if you switched to nickel or even dime (6 DBs), then, Garrett could motion both Witten and Bennett back next to the tackles and have what amounts to 7 "bigs" on offense (5 OL + 2 TEs) against 5 "bigs" on the defense and pound the rock with a Marion Barber-led power running game.  It is a beautiful grouping as you literally can go 50/50 in your play-calling from under center on 1st and 2nd down.

In 2008, the Cowboys ran the offense a bit, but they were just stretching their legs.  In the offseason between 2008 and 2009, there was plenty of discussion about how this might be the next big thing - a proper replacement idea for Terrell Owens going away - getting Witten and Bennett both on the field at the same time and making up for lesser personnel at Wide Receiver with superior personnel at Tight End and accomplishing similar things but with a different method.

Of course, it looked good on paper when I spent time writing about it back in August of 2009 both here and then again here.  Here is what I said back on August 7, 2009:

I think that is the cat and mouse game that will be played. But, as we know, the defense only has to be wrong once and they pay dearly. With Bennett and Witten, I think they can load up the line, but if they get beat once, they will lose their nerve and play more conservative. You must bracket those TE's from running down the seams. If you do not, I think it will be an easy 20 or 25 yards.

If you guess right, you are golden. But that is the beauty of "12" over almost any other personnel grouping. There is no way to pre-snap read the tendencies of the offense. It is almost a perfect 50/50 group. With Deon Anderson out there, you lean run. But with Witten and Bennett, you honestly have no idea. And with 2 WR's also on the field, you better leave your safety high. If you do, then the Cowboys can run it. Also, we saw plenty of 80 and 82 at the "F" back last year, too. There are so many options that a defense has to respect.

Easy, right?  Well, not so much.  They did have success with "12" in 2009, but not in the traditional sense of Bennett being a huge receiving threat.  The team passed for 9 yards per attempt in this group, but it wasn't because Martellus was running for another touchdown.  It was more because they were a running dominant team in 2009 and much of it happened with 2 TEs on the field.

Below is a list of "12 Personnel" usage for the last 5 seasons.  This includes every single situation where they were in "12", including shotgun situations and it does not break down run versus pass.  It simply sets a baseline for this idea that "12" is going to be the base offense in 2013.  At its high water mark to this point, with a rather large amount of conviction, the most they ever ran "12" personnel was 31% of snaps back in 2011.

Year	Total Snaps -Yards	12 Personnel Snaps -Yards	% of Total Offense in 12 Snaps-Yards
2008	979 - 5512	201 - 1001	20% - 18%
2009	1146 - 6982	320 - 2222	28% - 32%
2010	1026 - 5821	201 - 966	21% - 16%
2011	1007 - 6011	317 - 2178	31% - 36%
2012	1042 - 5987	185 - 1022	17% - 17%

We can break it down further, as you know I will.

First, let's look at 12 personnel from under center.  This defines any time there is 1 RB and 2 TE on the field, regardless of where they are in the formation.  We do this because it is all the information the defense has when they send in personnel.  Formation is deployed AFTER personnel is declared, and therefore there must be a distinction between the two.

This does not count "22" personnel (2 RB, 2 TE) a running look that is very difficult to do successfully, but the 2009 Cowboys did great at it.

UNDER CENTER

Year	Total Snaps	12 Personnel Run	12 Personnel Pass
2008	170	77 - 396 (5.14 per)	93 - 460 (4.94 per)
2009	193	91 - 373 (4.09)	102 - 918 (9.00)
2010	153	77 - 308  (4.00)	76 - 463 (6.09)
2011	224	98 - 420 (4.28)	126 - 1055 (8.37)
2012	143	65 - 251 (3.86)	78 - 516 (6.61)

Remember, there are some personnel variables to consider.  2010 was the Kitna year and John Phillips was gone throughout with his ACL injury.  2012 was the year Martellus Bennett was gone altogether.  You can see how the success in 2010 and 2012 was poor, and that when you try 65 runs and get nowhere, you aren't going to keep running your head against the wall.  Bennett was a fine blocker and therefore his absence hurt the offense, even if you have no fantasy football regret for cutting him loose.

But, look at the run/pass balance in snaps.  It often favors the pass, but not by a huge margin.  It should hurt the defense in both ways and that keep the linebackers and safeties guessing.  If you can do that, your play has a much higher possibility of success.

SHOTGUN

Here are their attempts at 12 personnel in shotgun over the last 5 seasons:

Year	Total Snaps	12 Personnel Run	12 Personnel Pass
2008	31	2 - 8  (4 per play)	29 - 137 (4.72)
2009	127	9 - 34 (3.77)	118 - 897 (7.6)
2010	48	5 - 24 (4.8)	43 - 171 (3.97)
2011	93	9 - 52 (5.77)	84 - 651 (7.75)
2012	42	1 - -1 (-1.00)	41 - 256 (6.24)

As you can see, this is not a very large part of the offensive attack, so we should assume that "12" as base will not mean "12" in shotgun very often unless Gavin Escobar is everything that Bennett wasn't.  He will never be the blocker that Martellus was, so their hope is that he is the receiver that every team is looking for in this package.  

In the end, as long as Jason Garrett is this team's offensive architect - and regardless of who is actually calling the plays, we are led to believe that it still will follow the blueprints that have been installed back in 2007 by Garrett, we should assume that they will always be rotating personnel groupings every snap.    Therefore, how much does the "base offense" play?  33%?  50%?  It is very difficult to conceive it being higher than that.  If it did, why would you spend a premium pick on a 3rd WR if he is not going to play?

Now, they are going back to the future.  It might seem that in 2013 they are 4 seasons behind the Patriots, but this seems to have been Garrett's idea all along.  If nothing else, the drafting of Gavin Escobar to try a 3rd tight end in the 2nd round of the last 8 drafts proves they are stubborn and determined to get it right in 2013.  

We will see how Bill Callahan and Escobar help make all of this happen.

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Rob Ryan Exits Stage Left

Yogi Berra supposedly once told us, "it's tough to make predictions; especially about the future."

So, I take solace in that modern-day philosopher when I attempt to predict what is going to happen next in the Jerry Jones empire of football.  There is no predicting what he will do, and when he starts making moves, conventional thinking or consensus should likely just be ignored.  There is no point in playing this game.

Yet, last week, I was ready to try to interpret the "uncomfortable change" that was around the corner according to an irate Jones a few days after the failure in Washington.

I was pretty sure it would be a new play-caller on offense.  But, a change in the coach running the defense?  Here is what I wrote about it (please note that I felt the conversation barely needed to happen given that a long-winded guy only used one paragraph for the entire discussion):

I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan.  I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew.  In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners.  They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.

So, that was that.  Done and dusted.

Until yesterday when Ryan was fired.  That makes Skip Peete, the Running Backs coach since 2007, on Monday and Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator since 2011, on Tuesday.

We can only imagine what Wednesday brings us.

And to some, there is the response of "Good.  It is about time Jerry makes some sweeping changes around there."  To which I say that changing out a RBs coach would change nearly nothing about the offense that doesn't care to run anyway, and changing out Rob Ryan is simply moving someone out who had no Cowboys-equity to begin with - and was only hired begrudgingly 2 seasons ago after the worst defensive season in Cowboys history.

That is not changing anything about the systematic ills that continue to plague this proud organization.

What it sounds like to me, for different reasons, is that the Cowboys likely let two guys go who did not necessarily do anything fireable in a sense of coaching strategy.  Rather, to either freshen things up or to change philosophically, the two men were fired so that we could "go in a different direction".

Seriously, if anyone was hit harder than Rob Ryan from an injury standpoint (Lee, Carter, Ratliff, Coleman, Church), it might be the guy in charge of running backs (DeMarco Murray missed a huge chunk of the year).  To fire them under the pretense of under-performance is flat-out silly.

So, is there issues with factions in the coaching staff?  Well, let me say that this is my biggest hot-button issue with Jerry Jones (once we accept that he has given himself a life-time term as the team's general manager), the idea that a head coach has somewhere between little and nothing to do with who is on his staff.

You have to understand how difficult this makes this job.  A head coach, no matter who he is, needs and must receive unconditional loyalty from his coaching staff.  When that doesn't happen - when a coach undercuts him to the players or to other assistants or even the public - we have major issues.  We have a powerless head coach which is 100% the opposite way of how the legendary successful coaches have always operated.  This is why their staff is made up of people they generally know or trust and one reason why coaching is thought of internally as an honorable occupation with a strict code of ethics that you are loyal to the man who gave you the opportunity.

And this is why the Cowboys have it all wrong.

You don't hire Jason Garrett to be your offensive coordinator when you have not hired a head coach yet.  And that is what Jones did in 2007.  You don't hire a head coach and tell him who is assistants are.  And that is something Jones has done with nearly every coach since Jimmy left with the exception of Bill Parcells - who assumed many coaches, but at least had a little say in that matter.

And, if you are Jason Garrett, and you are being made head coach, you cannot take assistants from the last regime unless you believe you have their 100% loyalty.  And sometimes that is difficult.  Sometimes, they don't have loyalty to you because they were an equal with you years ago, and think that perhaps they deserve to have your job - but perhaps they weren't the owner's pet.  Regardless, if you name your own staff, you aren't naming guys who you aren't sure would "buy in" to what you are selling to your players, which should be an unconditional commitment to the same goal.

And if you don't have that unconditional commitment to make the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys Super Bowl champions, then you shouldn't be on his staff.  Said another way, if you think you are a better candidate to be your team's coach than the coach himself, you have to know how to keep that to yourself or there will always be fractures in the organization and most obviously in the locker-room.

That is why 2008 was such a disaster.  Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and the wide receivers are having "keeping it real Thursdays" with their position coach Ray Sherman.  Inside these meetings, there reportedly are unflattering things being said about the offensive coordinator, the quarterback, and the tight end - who all happen to be too friendly according to Owens and company.  This friendliness, in their minds, is leading to decisions made on the football field that rewards friends with footballs.  And before long, we have half of the offense accusing the other half of a friendship organization and it leads to lack of unity and continuity.  All the while, the head coach, Wade Phillips, was presiding over the circus by acting like it wasn't happening.

And if that controversy in 2008 didn't teach Jerry that a staff must all have each-other's backs - and therefore a head coach better be able to name his entire staff with guys he trusts and that will respect and fear him, then nothing will.

And guess what.  Nothing will.

This is not meant to be a love-letter to the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys.  I am certainly not a full believer in his regime (can you have a regime if you don't have the power to name your own coaching staff?), although I believe he has some characteristics that intrigue me.  But, rather, on this day where we think 2 coaches just got fired for issues that cannot be based on their 2012 on-field performance - they had no chance of success with the injury cards they were dealt - I continue to wonder if this is an effort to get the coaching staff all on the same Garrett-led page.

What else could it be?

Some will say that the Cowboys just wanted to move to the 4-3.  And maybe that is all it is.  But, if you read this column, you know that I have been saying they have been running a modified 4-3 for Ryan's entire run here.  At least half of the game every week is either in an actual 4-3 (nickel defense on 3rd Downs and other passing scenarios) or a modified 3-4 where Ware rushes 88% of the time getting him defined as a DE in a 4-3 defense and the front 3 is just a DE and 2 DTs.

That is why I am somewhat amused by the universal freak-out about their personnel in a supposed change to the 4-3.  Ware and Anthony Spencer are your defensive ends - just like they were at Troy and Purdue.  Jason Hatcher and Jay Ratliff would be your ideal defensive tackles - although, who knows about Ratliff anymore.  Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore could play either in a depth rotation, and you were going to focus on DL in the draft anyway.

Linebackers are easy given your talent base already.  Sean Lee is your middle linebacker (Mic), and Bruce Carter would look to be a fantastic weak side LB (Will).  The strong side linebacker (Sam) may not be on your roster or it could be Alex Albright.  But, as you can see, you have strong personnel that could be made stronger with upgrades, of course, but is not in dire straits as it is.

I say it has to be that the long-haired member of the most abrasive family in football likely showed his abrasive side at one point or another in this incredibly high-stress 2012 season.  And when he does, he appears to have a tongue that might not always regulate itself well.  Was it his personality that got him fired?  I have no idea, but since people want a guess, that is where I am looking.  Otherwise, you cannot ask a guy to coach half the year with street free agents comprising his defense and then fire him when things don't work out.  This simply has to be bigger than that.

And given that I think Ryan has been running what amounts to a 4-3 anyway, the idea that he couldn't help usher in the new scheme is a bit far-fetched, too.

With Peete, I have spent less time thinking about it, other than to say that A) he goes back to 2007 with Garrett and fresh looks at this offense should not be discounted and B) there are a lot of fractured relationships from anyone around in 2008 when everything went wrong.  If people want to make this an argument of which guy should go, a RB's coach or a head coach, then you need your head examined.  If he is your head coach, then you allow him to change out whatever he wishes on his staff to tinker with what is clearly broken.  I am sure Peete will be fine and working again whenever he wants, but I don't have the slightest issue with changes being made to the staff.

And that is why I wonder if more changes are coming.  The play-calling position still seems up for grabs - Norv is still a wildcard as are several other interesting names.  And we haven't even discussed the personnel department that has had about as much stability over the last 15 years as any football front-office in the league.  I know the GM and his family are safe, but there are many sets of eyeballs with scouts and personnel types in the organization that have been there a long-time.  I imagine Jerry realizes his last few drafts have been some of his best, but if he wants discomfort in that building, who knows what he has planned?

This team is never short of story-lines, and maybe this is the year that Jason Garrett gets full control of his coaching staff.

But, I highly doubt it.

If there is one change we can bet against, it is the idea that Jerry will ever truly change his ways.  You can't predict much about the man, except for the idea that he will still be doing things his way for many years to come and there is nothing you can do about it.

So what changes will truly matter if the biggest change doesn't happen?  Well, that is tough to predict.  But, the outcomes might not be as difficult to forecast.

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On Play Calling, Norv, and Physicality

I realize that today is normally reserved for the defensive breakdowns, but I have decided to hold off until tomorrow (what is the rush, really, with the next game in about 9 months?) so that we may discuss the Cowboys "news of the day" and speak on something I am being asked quite a bit about.

Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.

So, what could this mean?  What is he talking about?  Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.

From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.

Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch?  40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving.  He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.

I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect.  That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys.  Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.

There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome.  I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.

Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns?  It didn't seem like it earlier in the season.  It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss.  And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.

But, enough about that.  Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program.  I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet.  There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand.  I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.

I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan.  I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew.  In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners.  They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.

Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense.  I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has.  You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.

6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them.  This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.

This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has.  In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage.  Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received.  The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB.  When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything.  The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything.  If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do.  Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football.  But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.

Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me.  At least one of them.  But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.

1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either.  Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit.  Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time.  And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week.  Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.

2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now.  Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock.  And maybe that is worth pursuing.  I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.

3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make.  And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong.  I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare.  Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook.  That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways.  Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited.  Think about this:  Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun.  Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012.  The sport is seen differently than it used to be.

Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes.  I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.

So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it.  I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line.  I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.

In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them.  Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.

Change is good sometimes in the NFL.  Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on.  I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off.  And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.

Do I have a list of names in mind?  No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name.  Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.

I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.

I am fine with trying something new.

Read More

Decoding Garrett - Final Data 2011

Warning: The Following Data is only for those with a gigantic thirst for knowledge about the Dallas Cowboys offense. For those with only an in-season interest for the Cowboys and minutia related to the Cowboys, check back tomorrow for something more main-stream.

Today, let's us finally get around to closing the book on offensive data as it pertains to the 2011 Dallas Cowboys offense. We already know their rankings for the 2011 season based on simple yardage and point totals. They averaged 15th in points per game (23.1), 11th in yards per game (375), 7th in passing yards (262), and 18th in rushing yards (112).

Basically, they were somewhere between average and slightly above average as an offense. Which seems to properly summarize how the team was as a whole in 2011. Not horrid and not great. Somewhere around room temperature, or to summarize in one simple word: lukewarm.

But, that data can be and must be separated for a coaching staff to see what was working and what needs to either go into the garbage can or at least back to the drawing board. And, since my computer is filled with data about every offensive snap since the start of the 2008 season when I got this idea in my head, I wanted you to be able to reference this as you try to get a handle on your thoughts about where the franchise is going and where it has been.

4 years is a ton of data, so you might wish to just sit on the 2011 numbers, which will be shared here at the very top of the blog entry.

Below, please find the key code for each personnel group that the Cowboys run. I think after reading it, you will be able to understand each grouping, and therefore will have a feel for comparing production from group to group.

Personnel Package	Description
11	1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12	1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
13	1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
21	2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
22	2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
23	2 RB, 3 TE
S01	Shotgun, 0 RB, 1 TE, 4WR
S02	Shotgun, 0 RB, 2 TE, 3WR
S11	Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
S12	Shotgun, 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR

Table Tutorial

The easiest way to understand how an offense works is to recognize that every play has 5 offensive linemen and 1 QB. So, basically an offensive coordinator must figure out what he wants to do with his other 5 men. He can go to extreme running groups like 2 RB and 3 TE, or he can go to an extreme pass receiving group of 5 WR. Usually, though, a coordinator will want to find something in between that keeps the defense wondering at the snap of the ball whether a run or pass is coming. This is why you always hear coaches talking about keeping the defense "off balance" or guessing.

Here is the data for every personnel group that averaged 1 snap a game. If the Cowboys only showed a group for 2 snaps all season, I have record of it, but I don't want to complicate this any further than it already is. Check out the chart to see the production of each grouping:

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	17	142	11-35	6-107
12	224	1475	98-420	126-1055
13	98	261	69-166	29-95
21	91	636	51-350	40-286
22	124	693	111-613	13-80
S02	43	319	0-0	43-319
S11	303	1733	43-216	260-1517
S12	93	703	9-52	84-651
Totals	1007	6011	395-1853	612-4158

Table Tutorial

The running game was rather weak this year in many groups. But, with FB Tony Fiammetta in the lineup, the Cowboys found that 21 and 22 personnel were very effective on the ground. The difference in the running game with and without the FB was as shocking as any year we have ever tracked. But, we also saw that DeMarco Murray seemed to prefer a FB and Felix Jones did not seem nearly as comfortable with a FB. The passing game was at its best from under center in 12 personnel, not any of the shotgun packages which many fans would believe. This remains an issue moving forward as the successful teams in the NFL have great success out of "Shotgun 11" and the Cowboys do not. Very disconcerting given the amount of time that the Cowboys are in that personnel package.

The following is the average game in 2011. We wanted a profile of what 1/16th of the offensive production would look like as a baseline for comparing every game. Here it is:
Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	8	1-8	0-0
12	14	92	6-26	8-66
13	6	16	4-10	2-6
21	6	39	3-21	3-18
22	8	43	7-38	1-5
S02	3	20	0-0	3-20
S11	19	108	2-13	17-95
S12	6	44	1-3	5-41
Totals	63	376	25-116	38-260

Table Tutorial

===========

Ok, now, we begin to sort it out based on each personnel grouping that was heavily used in the Cowboys offense. We have separated the Top 6 groupings and will compare the year to year production below:

"12 Personnel" - 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - 224 Snaps in 2011 - 22% of all snaps



12 personnel is the way of the future (just ask New England) and finding those Tight End mismatches is something that Jason Garrett has dreamed about for years. Unfortunately, 4 seasons into Martellus Bennett's career, and his production level has never come close to fulfilling expectations. Now he is a free agent and everyone is comfortable letting him go. But, should we all think it is a slam dunk? The nearly 1500 yards of production from this personnel group with Bennett and Witten on the field at the same time was more productive per snap (6.6 yards per snap!) than any package in the offense. And the total yardage ranked 2nd overall to their 2-minute offense. Incredibly productive. One is not saying Bennett is responsible primarily, but you must wonder the effect of losing him, because John Phillips will not be to present the same questions to a defense in both run and pass situations.

"12"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	77-396	75-321	77-308	98-420
Pass	93-460	92-854	76-463	126-1055
Total	170-856	167-1175	153-771	224-1475

HTML Tables

"13 Personnel" - 1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR - 98 snaps - 10% of all snaps



"13" puts all 3 TEs on the field at the same time. They ran this package more this year than any other year (obviously, getting Phillips healthy again helped) but the production was not good. 2.66 yards per snap for 98 plays means this package was not fooling anyone.

"13"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	26-154	43-168	5-4	69-166
Pass	18-156	21-92	14-155	29-95
Total	44-310	64-260	19-159	98-261

HTML Tables

"21 Personnel" - 2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR - 91 snaps - 9% of all snaps



"21" brought us the Tony Fiammetta/DeMarco Murray partnership that nobody saw coming in August. 7 yards per carry over 51 run plays and 7 yards per pass in 40 passes says that the Cowboys had wonderful balance and production from this grouping. The only reason it wasn't used more was the health of both of those players over 16 games.

"21"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	108-380	70-301	93-460	51-350
Pass	65-578	34-332	81-511	40-286
Total	173-858	104-633	174-971	91-636

HTML Tables

"22 Personnel" - 2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR - 124 snaps - 12% of all snaps



2011 brought us the return of "22". In 2009, "22" personnel was out of this world great for the Cowboys on their playoff run. But, the production dropped on the ground in 2010 substantially with Chris Gronkowski replacing Deon Anderson at FB. But, in 2011, Fiammetta was able to help boost this group back up to nearly 6 yards a carry again. "22" causes all sorts of defensive issues and the Cowboys were able to ground and pound out of this group rather well.

"22"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	80-323	140-812	136-536	111-613
Pass	12-52	41-189	39-220	13-80
Total	92-375	181-1001	175-756	124-693

HTML Tables

"Shotgun 11 Personnel" - Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - 303 snaps - 30 % of all snaps



Whether it was a 3 WR group of Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and Roy Williams or a 3 WR group of Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Laurent Robinson, we have never quite understood why the Cowboys aren't better in this group at causing matchup issues everywhere. Especially having a generational Tight End working the middle of the field. My theory has been that the Cowboys do not run enough shallow crossing routes, but whatever the case, the Cowboys run this group for nearly every 3rd Down and every 2-minute drill exclusively. That is why 5.83 yards per attempt is not enough for my liking and I assume Garrett's. This group is 30% of the entire offense and it has never been a strength in the Garrett/Romo era since we have tracked it.

"S11"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	65-344	44-285	66-348	43-216
Pass	320-2250	249-1753	303-2173	260-1517
Total	385-2594	293-2038	369-2521	303-1733

HTML Tables

"Shotgun 12 Personnel" - Shotgun, 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - 93 snaps - 9% of all snaps



And finally, this variation of the Shotgun offense where Bennett replaces the slot WR and tries to find matchup issues in the secondary. Trouble is, the defense stays in their nickel and dares Martellus to beat a DB, something that he hasn't done in his career with any degree of consistency.

"S12"	2008	2009	2010	2011
Run	2-8	9-34	5-24	9-52
Pass	29-137	109-897	43-171	84-651
Total	31-145	118-931	48-195	93-703

HTML Tables

If you have made it this far, you are quite interested in this information. If it requires more clarification or elaboration, email me at sturm1310@aol.com and we will write more on the data.

Our 2011 Preseason Decoding Garrett Write-up

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Decoding Garrett '11

I am not blogging too much yet as I try to get my 2011 plans in order. But I will put some things up that are review to some of you, and brand new to the majority of you.



Here is one of those items that has been updated for your perusal:

Robert42078: Bob, do me a favor either on air or in this forum. Can you go over the personel packages and their corresponding names.

Absolutely, Robert. And I very much believe that this is something that is essential to understand a game plan in the NFL (or any level of football). After every play, an offensive coordinator looks at his play sheet and decides what he wants to do on the next snap. He must consider down-and-distance and pick something that makes sense. Once he decides, he sends out the proper personnel package to execute the play. Meanwhile, across the field, the defensive coaches for the opponent observe what Garrett is sending out there and then he matches up with a proper personnel change of his own (Nickel, Dime, Base, etc).



By simply watching a game on television, you can easily identify the personnel that an offense is sending out there. And once you know that, you are prepared to keep a tally on a notebook to see for yourself what the Offensive Coordinator is attempting to do.



Remember, there are 2 important things that a defensive player is attempting to do pre-snap. 1) He is looking at personnel and making sure from their film study and their defensive game plan what his responsibility will be. He usually has time to absorb this piece of information during the huddle and get a proper play call from his own sideline. Then 2) He is looking at formation. This deploying of the 11 offensive players are a subset of the personnel. You can have "12" personnel on the field and it can mean many different things. If you are a middle linebacker and both tight ends are lined up off right tackle, you must make sure you identify enough of your mates to neutralize the "strong side" run formation on that side. If, instead, Witten is flexed out in the slot, then you are thinking pass, and that Bennett is serving to pass protect while we better get some help on Witten before he runs the verticals that he is so likely to run with effectiveness. The worst part about formation is that it can happen at the last possible second before the snap with pre-snap motion and adjustments part of every NFL offense.



With that in mind, we must go back to personnel groups. If we are going to attempt to process some of this information, we must first all agree on terminology.



Below, please find the Cowboys offense broken down by personnel groups.



For any of this to make sense, you have to know what all of the different packages mean. Basically, it is very simple. Every Offense in the world has 1 QB and 5 Offensive Linemen. Therefore, if 11 players are on the field, then that leaves 5 players who can join the QB in skill positions and the Offensive Coordinator has to choose how to deploy those 5. So, the groups are simple. "11" means 1 RB and 1 TE, so you add those 2 numbers together (1+1 = 2) and subtract that number from 5 to get how many WRs are on the field at the time. (11 will mean 3 WRs, of course).

Personnel Package	Description
11	1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
12	1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
13	1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR
21	2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR
22	2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR
23	2 RB, 3 TE
S01	Shotgun, 0 RB, 1 TE, 4WR
S02	Shotgun, 0 RB, 2 TE, 3WR
S11	Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
S12	Shotgun, 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR

Table Tutorial

Do you get it? In all of the packages, the first number is the number of RBs, the second number is the total number of TEs. And "S" means Shotgun. So, when you watch the game on tv, you can easily identify the package before the snap to see what Garrett is doing.



And when you do all of this, you will quickly see patterns. But, the first thing we should do is see where they were dedicating the majority of their snaps. Here is the full breakdown of the 9 different packages that they ran at least 16 times in 2010. If they don't run it at least once a game on average, we are not going to complicate things any further for you.



Here are the results from 2010 - The shocking summary is that ALL 5 of the Cowboys favorite personnel packages saw a drop off in production from 2009. ALL 5!!!



2010 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage of Snaps
11	25	77	2%
12	153	771	15%
13	19	159	2%
21	174	971	17%
22	175	756	17%
23	14	3	1%
S01	18	136	2%
S02	21	171	2%
S11	369	2521	36%
S12	48	195	5%

Table Tutorial

The reason we have to keep track of this is simple to me. It tell us quite a bit about what they are trying to accomplish and how they like to use certain players in certain spots. The more you know, the more you will understand about a player's role on a team rather than just looking at the final boxscore or your fantasy score. That tells you very little.



Anyway, Here are the 5 most-run Personnel Groups that Jason Garrett called in 2010. I have included a picture with each of them, so you know what you are looking for:



===================









S11 Personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR - In Shotgun) - The MOST Run Package in 2010



This is the default package for any 3rd Down that is not 3rd and short. This is also the default 2-min drill offense. This is the bread and butter of the offense for the entire Jason Garrett era.



2010-S11 Results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
369 Total Snaps	2521	6.83	-
66 Runs	348	5.27	18%
303 Passes	2173	7.17	82%

HTML Tables

2009-S11 Results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
293 Total Snaps	2038	6.96	-
44 Runs	285	6.48	15%
249 Passes	1753	7.04	85%

HTML Tables

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22 Personnel (2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR) - The 2nd Most Run Package in 2010



In 2009, this is what the Cowboys loved to do on 1st and 2nd Down as they were attempting to demonstrate their physical running style. However, in 2010, the ability to power run dropped dramatically. This is a key moving forward to re-establish what the Cowboys do well. Balanced offense is the key to get the passing attack to maximize its effectiveness. Take special note of the running out of "22" in 2010 (3.94 a carry) versus 2009 (5.80 a carry). Shocking drop-off here.



2010 - "22"

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
175 Total Snaps	756	4.32	-
136 Runs	536	3.94	77%
39 Passes	220	5.64	23%

HTML Tables

2009 - "22"

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
181 Total Snaps	1001	5.53	-
140 Runs	812	5.80	77%
41 Passes	189	4.61	23%

HTML Tables

===============







21 Personnel (2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR) - The 3rd Most Run Package in 2010



Since the beginning of time, this is how football looked. This is called "regular" personnel on most coaching staffs, but of course, with the FB disappearing, that is a rather antiquated term. Again, under-center sets all fell in 2010, which tells you about the OL and QB positions.

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
174 Total Snaps	971	5.58	-
93 Runs	460	4.95	53%
81 Passes	511	6.31	47%

HTML Tables

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
104 Total Snaps	633	6.09	-
70 Runs	301	4.30	67%
34 Passes	332	9.76	33%

HTML Tables

=================







12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) - The 4th Most Run Package in 2010



The most versatile look available. If the defense tries to stack against the run, the Cowboys can audible into a pass with 4 weapons on the field (Austin, Dez, Bennett, and Witten). And, if they sit back in a pass posture, the Cowboys pound the rock with 7 Offensive Linemen. It is a very popular base look around the league, instead of the traditional "21" look. This dropped horribly in 2010, too. The pass threat out of this look fell from 9.28 yards per throw to 6.09! That tells us that teams were sitting on pass because the run was not a threat anymore. Once you don't fear the run, now you drop coverage on the two TEs and suddenly, nobody is open.



2010 - "12" results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
153 Total Snaps	771	5.03	-
77 Runs	308	4.00	50%
76 Passes	463	6.09	50%

HTML Tables

2009 - "12" results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
167 Total Snaps	1175	7.04	-
75 Runs	321	4.28	45%
92 Passes	854	9.28	55%

HTML Tables

=============









S12 Personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR - In Shotgun) - The 5th Most Run Package in 2010



A variation of S11, where Martellus comes on for a 3rd WR. Slightly difficult match-up for the secondary, but it also allows TE pass protection help without Witten having to do it. But, wow, the production of this package also fell through the floor. Very bad results from year to year with this package, telling you troubling things as the Cowboys depth at WR is nowhere near what it was.



2010 - "S12" results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
48 Total Snaps	195	4.06	-
5 Runs	24	4.80	10%
43 Passes	171	3.98	90%

HTML Tables

2009 - "S12" results

Run/Pass	Yards	Avg Per Play	% of Snaps
118 Total Snaps	933	7.91	-
9 Runs	34	3.78	8%
109 Passes	897	8.23	92%

HTML Tables

=====================



Here you can look at the last 3 years and see what the team did well in 2009 that disappeared in 2010. Let's just say the offense is hoping that getting their QB back and their OL overhauled can change quite a bit.



2010 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage
11	25	77	2%
12	153	771	15%
13	19	159	2%
21	174	971	17%
22	175	756	17%
23	14	3	1%
S01	18	136	2%
S02	21	171	2%
S11	369	2521	36%
S12	48	195	5%

Table Tutorial

2009 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage
11	12	35	1%
12	167	1175	17.%
13	64	260	6%
21	104	633	10%
22	181	1001	18%
23	9	10	1%
S11	293	2038	29%
S12	118	933	12%

Table Tutorial

2008 Final Numbers

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Percentage
11	27	115	3%
12	170	856	17%
13	44	310	4%
21	173	958	18%
22	92	375	10%
23	9	6	1%
S11	385	2594	39%
S12	30	141	3%

Table Tutorial

So, like I said, this isn't for everyone. But, I hope it is for you.

Read More

X's and O's Breakdown - The Garrett Screen

In answering your X's and O's questions about the Cowboys and their strategies, sometimes I find that we can knock out several that all pertain to the same concept. Such is the case today as we look at a small strategy development which is growing bigger and bigger and should not be marginalized as we head to 2011.

It is the screen pass. Something that the Cowboys almost completely ripped out of the playbook for many years, as the rest of the NFL found it to be one of the great counter punches to complex blitz packages. Yes, the Cowboys would employ it from time to time, but it was really used mostly as a concession on 3rd and long rather than a point of attack option.

That has really changed in 2010 and the the players involved when it really got clicking were Jon Kitna and Felix Jones.

First, a few emails on the topic:

From jdramirez:

I'd like to see a break down regarding the Cowboys offense inability to run a traditional screen play. We see other teams flawlessly execute the tackle and guard blocking for a running back that has caught a ball in the flat, but our team resorts to quick passes to WR's and throws to RB's who are out in space with few, if any, blockers in front.

My presumption is that the Cowboys offensive line is not fast enough or athletic enough to get into position; however, with Free and Smith playing tackle (left or right), the Cowboys should have an injection of athleticism and youth along the o-line.

The guards will likely be unchanged.

And then this one is another on the development of the screen pass:

I really like the screen pass to Felix. It helps slow down the other team's rush, plus it gets Felix out in space, where he is best, and gives him a chance to make a big play.

Wes,
Richmond, VA

For this project, I have pulled 5 of the best screen plays in 2011. They started running these almost from the start of 2010, but for whatever reason - and Kyle Kosier's health may be a big reason - they did not get good at doing them until October. There was one particular screen called in Houston that was going to be a major gain until it was called back for an unnecessary penalty down field to Miles Austin.

In Minnesota, a few weeks later, the Cowboys actually called about 17 passes that could be termed either screen passes or quick outs or swing passes.

In fact, Jared Allen even talked about it after the Vikings win: "We knew that we could get to the quarterback," Allen said. "Even though we didn't get any sacks, he was getting rid of the ball. You saw them change their game plan literally in the first series after we hit him about three or four times. All of a sudden it was screens, outlet passes, swing passes."

Now, there is a real distinction we should draw between the Vikings game-plan and the point of this exercise. The difference is that the Cowboys called those screens that day because they knew they were not able to pass protect straight up against the Vikings after that playoff demolition and the beating the Titans put on their OL the week before. They called screens to keep Tony Romo upright (which lasted only 1 more week before he was gone for the year). The OL was beyond putrid in September and October last season ** and only when things started normalizing in November could the Cowboys run much of an offense. Even then, it was with 1 hand tied behind their back (injured QB and less than a proper OL) and this is why Tyron Smith and a Free Agent Guard were heavily recommended in this offseason. You can have all of the skill players and fantasy football stars you want, but if you can't call half of your playbook for fear of getting your QB killed, then the rest of that doesn't matter.

** =I highly recommend you spend $40 at NFL.com and get the NFL Game Rewind. This allows you to watch in High Definition every play of every game in the league if your heart desires. You can scout Michael Huff or Eric Weddle, or you can review some of the Cowboys action last year. If you are the least bit fuzzy about the performance level of the OL at the end of the Wade Phillips era, you owe it to yourself to refresh that memory...And it helps you beat the lockout with games that you have never seen to fill your NFL void.

But, as 2010 developed, we saw Jason Garrett figure some things out offensively. He seemed to really speak out about the OL's need for more physical play. He would regularly discuss the desire that they pick up the pace and get more physical and basically challenged them publicly to do their job. Also, Garrett was messing with ways to get Felix Jones more involved. That seemed to lead right to the premise of working the screen into more and more spots in the game plan - not just the 3rd and long concession play (which can be interchanged with the draw as two plays that on 3rd and 12 are obviously there to get a few more yards for your punter and get off the field in one piece).

Rather, if the screen could be used as an offensive weapon and a play that you couldn't wait to spring on an opponent who is trying to put to many players between the tackles, now you have something to work with. It is a wonderful counter to the blitz and to pass pressure because obviously you have open space to combine with a player like Felix. It works best (and sometimes only) against man-to-man coverage in the secondary. In zone, the defenders are facing the QB and the play, so they are always there to read and react to a screen pass. What works best in the screen against the Giants in Week 9 was that the Giants were in man coverage and so when Felix broke through the initial defenders, the DBs had no idea what was happening because they had their backs turned.

And, we should assume that this is the type of play DeMarco Murray was drafted for. He is best known for his absurd pass reception totals at Oklahoma, and it seems rather clear that the Cowboys wish to put more pressure on your LBs and DBs by getting their runners into the open field whenever possible. And what does this help? Pass protection. Because the more your defense is worried about plays like these, the less you can send the house at Tony Romo.

Keep in mind the anatomy of a screen play. It involves your tackles doing what they always do in pass protection, but your interior men (LG-C-RG) starting the play as if it is pass, but then releasing the rushers to the QB and getting down into position ahead of the receiver (Jones). Usually, the LG will go and pick off the man assigned to Felix Jones, and the Center and Right Guard now form a convoy to pick up what emerges in the path of the play. A beautiful screen is awesome to behold. A poorly run screen can be demoralizing.

Let's look at these 5 screens. I have included my descriptions from the Decoding Garrett series from last fall on each play:

The Play:3Q - 3/10/29 - "S11" - Screen to Felix +71 TD



What Happened: Here is one of the "S11" snaps from the game in a 3rd and long situation. On 3rd and 10, the Giants are looking at all of the Cowboys targets and are going to play with a safety over each pair with their Dime Personnel. That means 3 DBs on the side of Miles and Witten (up top), and 3 DBs on the top of Miles and Dez. That leaves 5 defenders to get to Kitna and account for Felix. Oh, yes, Felix. Forgot about Felix. The Cowboys set this up wonderfully by selling a screen to the right side and then the screen to the left. Watch the middle of the OL release the pass rushers to Kitna and then get to the left flat to form a convoy. By the time the Giants see what happened, Felix has put it in overdrive. I am pretty sure that the Giants wanted their safety 26-Rolle to help in coverage and watch Felix, but that is asking too much. Troy Aikman thinks maybe Tuck should have Felix, but that seems like a rather unlikely matchup to me. Regardless, Felix does still appear to have his burst.

The Play:4Q - 2/17/27 - "21" - Sceen to Jones +25



What Happened:"21" personnel on 2nd and 17 and the Cowboys want a screen left for Felix again. This one doesn't go for 71 yards, but it does get you another 1st Down as you now are trying to kill the game in a 4 minute drill setting. How close is Kyle Kosier to a penalty here with a block in the block on Louis Delmas? Very close. Leonard Davis moving forward on a rail is still a powerful man, and the play works because everyone gets a piece of someone. This shows the margin for error in this league. Delmas is an inch from blowing the play up, but he doesn't, so the Cowboys get a huge play here on a screen pass that is becoming a rather common big play now for the Cowboys with Felix in space. What a concept, right?

The Play: 2Q - 2/10/40 - "S11" - Screen to Jones +28



What Happened: What are we seeing more and more of as the season progresses? Felix Jones screen plays. They can be run best with "11" personnel in and then the Cowboys make you make a tough decision as a defense. This time, they line Witten and 2 WRs to the right. The Saints are manning up on their defense, so when all 3 of those targets get off the line of scrimmage and into their routes, we see a clear-out of that side of the field. Once the screen is executed quickly, now Felix is in space and his speed does the rest for a quick +28 yards. This is great design and a reason we are hopeful that Garrett has creative ideas to utilize Felix more. Obviously, he isn't a traditional back, and so you must figure out how to use his strengths more and more. The screens seem to be the answer.

The Play:3Q - 1/10/37 - "21" - Screen Pass to Jones +35



What Happened: Now, a weekly staple of this feature, we look at the Felix Jones screen pass project. It seems that twice a half, the Cowboys are attempting to run this play where Felix gets in space. Obviously, a change-up works best when you are locating your fastball, right? Well, screens work best when your running game is keeping everyone honest. Otherwise, they sit on the screen pass over and over and make this play difficult to pull off. But, after trying it 3 other times, they spring this one nicely as Kosier gets his man, and then Felix is off to the races. He is very good at this, but the defenses are starting to see that this is his best play in the entire offense, so they are spending all week to figure out how to keep the Felix screen from happening. Great job by everyone getting in the lanes here, but I do think it is a fascinating cat-and-mouse game between the two coaches to get this just right. For Felix to be a complete player, he needs a fastball, so that his changeup becomes more effective.

The Play:1Q - 2/10/W35 - "21" - Screen to Felix +15



What Happened: Regular personnel for the Cowboys - which is "21" - and here we see our weekly feature known as "Felix Jones Screen Plays". Another clear attribute of the 2nd half of 2010 is when the Cowboys finally figured out how to execute a screen pass. It is not easy, because the more you do it, the more the defense sits on it and doesn't believe you are really going to do anything else. So, the LBs key on Felix and the second he tries to sneak out to a flank, the LBs are in hot pursuit. And that is when you know you are getting good. Watch the Redskins sit on this play by cheating out to Felix, but the Cowboys get this blocked to a decent level, and then it is Felix in space using his ability to make guys miss. He doesn't hit on all of these, but he hits on at least 1 a game and it is becoming a real weapon.

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After looking at all of these plays again, here are a couple observations.

1) - It is clear that you must have a RB with a burst. There are very small windows to run through and they close very fast. Felix Jones and maybe DeMarco Murray will be able to find openings where Marion Barber would not have the burst to do so. This play has to have perfect timing, and for whatever reason, after years in hibernation, the Cowboys with Kitna and Jones showed they could run this week after week.

2) - Kyle Kosier is a key player in many of these plays. The more I review 2010, the more I want to re-sign Kosier. He is exceptional in space and is capable of leading this play where Leonard Davis cannot get out there fast enough for the first block. Sometimes, Davis can get in front of the play, but that first block - usually needed behind the line of scrimmage out on the edge at the precise moment that Felix catches and cuts - is a block only Kosier can pull off it seems. There is no question that his health issues (the 3 week absence that seems like a regular happening every season) are disconcerting, but when he plays, he plays very well.

3) - The Cowboys seem to run this screen to the weakside more (away from the TE and away from the majority of the WRs) and to the left more (Kosier factor). Although, we do see it working to the right on occasion and into the strength of the formation as well.

Again, this is not the meat and potatoes of any offense. Of 65 plays, you would only use this twice. But, as we look ahead and as we try to understand why the Cowboys felt Murray was a worthy use of pick #71, we do see that Jason Garrett sees this as a valuable tool moving forward.

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