Bag of Pucks - March 19

April 3 is the NHL Trade Deadline in this oddly constructed 2013 NHL Season.

That gives us 15 days to look at options for the Stars to consider as they head down the road of trying to get from where they are to where they wish to go.  And at times, they seem a long ways from where they hope to go.

And given that in the last 5 games, they have pulled 3 points out of 10, it might be time for the suits in the front office to take a hard look at the alternative plan.  Nobody likes to ever consider the alternative plan until reality hits them right in the face.  When you start each season, you bravely announce that the playoffs are the goal (or the Stanley Cup for the extra-brave) and you march into the year filling your fans' heads with optimism and hope.

Then, when things start to go badly, a team must make that tough decision.  The players and coach don't need to be involved in this tough decision, because you want them playing as hard and trying to win their next game no matter what.  There is a belief amongst fans that there is a time to "tank" and try to work your way up the draft ladder by design (Hello: Seth Jones), but that is a very dangerous proposition of inviting cancer into your organization (losing, not Jones) by authorizing a mentality where anything less than winning is welcomed.  This is fun talk for message boards but I don't believe for a second that most of the proud men in sports would ever consider trying to lose just for a few draft spots.  That is everything opposite of the wiring of these men who ascend to this level of their profession.  They get indigestion from losing a game and to lay down and surrender when people are paying money to follow your team is the unpardonable sin.  Some fans call it good business, but few men inside the lines would agree an even fewer would participate.

Anyway, back to the tough decision.  When a team gets to a certain fork in the road, it has to make a choice.  Are we in this race or aren't we?  What is our highest upside of achievement in this year and where can we help the big picture if we sacrifice this year's upside for the future?  In other words, can we flip some of our assets to give this thing a boost moving forward and making next year or the year after a more likely target?

Fans and media often don't want to hear about playing the long game, because we want payoff sooner than later 100 times out of 100.  But, a sports organization always needs to play the "long game" which at times requires you to trade a guy in his prime (say, Phil Kessel) for a few picks (that turn into Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton).  This might mean that you lose one of your better players but then when you have 2 fantastic young teenagers in exchange, you are playing the long game properly.

As I type this, the Stars have completed 28 games of a 48-game season.  They have 20 games to go, and this morning they wake up in the 10th spot, just 1 point behind the holder of the 8th and final playoff position, San Jose.  Of course, had they lost to Calgary last night, they would have spent this morning in the 14th spot, an indication of how insanely close everything is in the Western Conference for another year in a row.

They are so close to getting in the tournament, and yet, they are a team that has to remain realistic to itself since they were "so close" in 2011 and missed on the final day, and "so close" in 2012 and faded late as well.  Each time they fade late, they miss an opportunity to try to flip assets at the deadline and help their future.

But, they also have a fan-base that is anxious.  The possibility of a 5-year playoff drought is a difficult milestone to swallow.  The Ducks have never had more than a 3-year absence from post-season play and the Sharks have had 5 years COMBINED of missing the playoffs in their 21-year franchise history.    The Coyotes had a 6-year run of missing the playoffs from '03 to '09, until you helped them hire Dave Tippett as their coach.  They haven't missed the playoffs since.  Tippett, of course, has coached in the NHL 9 seasons and has missed the playoffs just once - the year he was fired in Dallas.

And then there is the Kings.  The Kings also had a 6-year absence from post-season play from '03-'09, but then they have ruined it for anyone looking to dismiss one's playoff chances as they squeezed in last season to the final playoff spot and then hauled off and won their first Stanley Cup as an 8-seed.  And now, they will be cited by each and every person that wants to keep the "go for it" posture moving forward.  "The 2012 Kings got in and won it all!" - why can't we?

Of course, that is why with 20 games to go you are in a tough spot.  With a possibility of 40 possible points left to fight for, why would you let a 1-point deficit make you pessimistic?  On the other hand, do you think you have a similar roster that like the 2012 Kings could just get in and then start mowing down teams with high seeds and by extension, superior talent?

April 3rd is the day of Game #36, so you will get 7 more games to determine where you are.  Then, with a team that has quite a few useful parts, you would have to decide if you should cash in those parts now or potentially lose them for nothing in a few months as the Stars have their share of expiring contracts.  A few weeks ago, they cashed in the expiring deal of Michael Ryder for Erik Cole and that is a move that I have enjoyed.  Cole is a power player who flashes every night and while the stats aren't overwhelmingly in his favor at this juncture, I think that was a nice addition for the next two season - especially if they lose Brenden Morrow and their only real net presence on the roster right now to free agency.

Let's look at each of the Stars veteran parts that might make sense to flip for a pick or a kid to help replenish the roster with even more players who are early in their careers:

Derek Roy: We might as well start with the most complicated case of them all.  Roy has the potential to be the 2nd-line center that the Stars have been seeking for a while and he does a lot of things really well.  He is 29 years old and has done a few things to make this a difficult decision.  It appears that the two sides have discussed a contract extension, but also that the two parties are not overly close on their numbers.  The Stars have to hold the line at what they think he will be worth and Roy sees some of the numbers around the league and considers himself due for a major extension.  He also knows that he might be one of the top centers in free agency and might wish to bet on himself this summer that someone will throw a contract at him for many years (7?) and the possibility of $5m or more per year.  If the Stars do that, they have to be confident that he is not in decline - like Buffalo thought when they dealt him - and will still be an exceptional center when he is 35.  Is that prudent?  Or do the Stars keep shopping for the center ice compliment for Jamie Benn and move Cody Eakin up for the rest of the year, flip Roy for some handsome prospects and keep shopping?  I think the Stars would do 5 years at $4m or $4.5 (total deal: $22m or so), but I don't think they want to get in that $35m-$40m range for Roy.  And I can't blame them.  I might make another run at the player and his agent and see if a compromise can be struck, but if there is no extension before April 3, I think you have to trade him.  He would bring you the most in a deal, as the new team would be the favorite to re-sign him moving forward.

Brenden Morrow: Another sticky situation, as he has been a fantastic player for you and your captain for many years.  But, it seems like his body is not what it was and the $4m price has outlived its value.  The great news for the Stars and Morrow here is that he is a very respected veteran that people around the league see as just the type of guy to add at the deadline.  His value is actually more in a trade than keeping around and there is reason to believe that you might be able to get something decent.  I also think that he would be up for a chance to play deep in to the spring and might welcome a new chapter to his story.  I hate to see him go, but I think the time has come and might be a worthy move to make.

Eric Nystrom:  Not sure how much value he has as a trade, but I do think I would be fine with keeping him around to play that checking-line grit role.  You would take calls, but his price is such that he can be a candidate for a new deal for next season this summer.

Jaromir Jagr:  This one might require a visit with the player and see what he wants to do.  He holds all of the cards and perhaps you ask him where his comfort lies.  He plays on a year-to-year basis and may be interested in another Cup run, but I honestly have no idea if he wants to stay here and maybe even consider another season in Dallas or if he wants to move.  He hides his cards well, but if he wants to be dealt, you might be pleased with a reasonable return, as well.

Those are the 4 expiring free agents on the roster (and Jordie Benn).  There are a few other parts that you could see gathering interest around the league that would have additional years left on their deals.  Those names would include Vernon Fiddler and Stephane Robidas.  Robidas, like Morrow, has a no-trade clause, but also like Morrow might welcome a chance to go play for a contender.

Personally, I think I would like to open up a defense spot moving forward anyway, and with Robidas, Trevor Daley, Alex Goligoski, and Aaron Rome all on long-term deals, with Brenden Dillon and Jamie Oleksiak securing spots as regulars, you actually don't have a ton of flexibility in the area of your roster that needs the most improvement.  If everyone has nailed down a spot, you might need to move something out before you start moving things in over the summer.  And I trust that is part of their long term plan - if not priority #1 - to find a defenseman or two that can be in the top spots as 25 minute guys moving forward.

They have improved their spot with plenty of youth on the roster over last year's squad, but this is a work in progress.  That is why to fall in love with a low-payoff opportunity in 2013 is missing a chance at a brighter future.

Tough decisions are heading this way and with 15 days to go, the war-room is full of activity.

The most important news items for the Dallas Stars between now and April 3rd may or may not have anything to do with their games.

Let's pull up a chair and see what they reveal about their plans and their belief in where they are in all of this.

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So Long, 63

There is some coping mechanism inside us all that tries to move on when a favorite goes away. Especially when it comes to our teams and our players. Invariably, one of our teams is going to make a move. This move is going to be grounded in logic and part of a bigger plan that will possibly make sense around the next corner. However, this move is going to take away a player that you really liked over the years and always gave an effort that you enjoyed. But, that coping mechanism kicks in. And before long, you buy the rhetoric and the explanations from the team and even though you enjoyed his work, you now are on to the next one.

Well, this morning, I am not quite ready to move on and look ahead. This morning, I wanted to write about one of my favorite players to roll through town, Mike Ribeiro, a few days after we all found out he would continue his career in Washington with the Capitals after the Dallas Stars pulled the trigger on a trade to send him away.

Oh, sure, I know all about the warts of Mike Ribeiro. Ribs was one of the worst face-off centers of this generation. For all of his brilliance, the simple fine art of taking a face-off was lost on him. In fact, of the 42 players to take at least 5,000 face-offs in the last 5 seasons, Ribeiro finished 42nd in percentage won (45%). Olli Jokinen and Eric Staal were also worse than 47%, but only Ribs fell below 46%.

He became famous for his long shifts. And the more vital the shift was from an offensive standpoint, the longer the shifts were. It was something that drove fans and media crazy to know that Jamie Benn was watching most of the power play from the bench as Ribs turned a 60 second shift into a 85 second shift if the Stars had the man advantage. Then, with 30-35 seconds left, Benn would pop out as opposed to splitting the 2 minute advantage equally down the middle. It may not have been his fault that Benn was not out there with him, but the shift length became an issue that was never properly sorted last season. In all, 211 minutes on the power play dwarfed Benn's 163. It wasn't all an issue of shift length, but it certainly started there. And when the Dallas Stars tied a modern era low for least number of power play goals scored in a full length season (just 33), then that nit was going to be picked quite a bit.

Those two points will be brought up repeatedly over the next few months to anyone who wants to lament his exit; as will his issues in his own defensive zone and his enjoyment of the night life. But, for me, watching #63 since the 2006-07 season has been great. I have always enjoyed his game and his ability to simply be himself. He scored 407 points in 461 games for the Dallas Stars, and like so many before him, he did it his way. He was skinny, but he was certainly not meek. He would play his heart out and if you challenged him, he would play harder with an edge of anger.

He played through a number of injuries that certainly could have ended his night. His battle this past winter through the puck in his face in Nashville followed by the knee injury against Edmonton in back to back games showed what he was all about. It reminded us of his previous battle scars including the throat scar from a trip a few years back in New York.

But, the biggest attraction to Mike Ribeiro for me was just his love of the beautiful side of the sport. It might have had plenty to do with growing up in a soccer family, where his father perhaps assisted Mike in the creative side of making a play effective and pretty at the same time. He had a knack for creative play that was not taught at the youth levels of hockey and is still not widely loved by the coaches who run the NHL. You could feel the collective cringe on the bench when he would unveil his newest shootout move that included a fair amount of mustard on the hot dog. He might score and make the goalie look silly or not score and make himself look silly, but he was not simply going to fire a wrist shot like everyone else. He just couldn't do it that way.

He might have been a player in Dallas that needed to be coached hard. Once upon a time, the Stars had a similar soul in Brett Hull, but they also had the fiery combo of Bob Gainey and Ken Hitchcock demanding that any sort of free spirit be sewn into the fabric of the team concept and expectations. To Hitch, 45 seconds did not mean 46 seconds, and if he was coaching Ribs, perhaps the shift issues and the decision making would have been molded differently. We will never know.

But, Marc Crawford and Glen Gulutzan were not the type to take on a veteran who needed the occasional scolding. So, they perhaps were never able to get him to understand the difference between a personal and team decision. He was set in his ways and they were not up for the battle of wills, so some of the problems might have not been addressed.

All the while, Ribs would be out there trying to help the cause. His creativity and drive were always on display. His overtime winner against Calgary this year will be the goal that will be the most enduring memory (six shades of sexy were the words of Razor Reaugh), but there were 50 just like it over his time here.



He will be replaced by someone else, and chances are that that new player will always mind the coach and likely won't stay out as late. But, the hockey fan inside of me who loved the creative flair that Ribeiro put out there will always have a spot for him on my team. He made hockey fun and reminded us that trying something with the puck is sometimes a better idea than dumping it into the corner and getting a responsible change. I know the coaches don't want to hear it, but those of us who don't want robots playing hockey very much appreciate it. There are very few players like Ribeiro out there, and I am happy to have watched him here for 6 years.

I will miss the haircuts, the quotes, and the clothes that only he would attempt to wear. I will miss the shootout attempts, the bad attitude when he was challenged, and the behind the back, through the legs, and who knows where else artwork that he would conceive and then execute.

It may not make hockey sense to say this, because he was not without weaknesses in his game, but I will greatly miss having #63 around anymore. They missed the last 4 years of playoffs with him, so his jersey will likely never see the banners, but I will always remember his contributions to my hockey enjoyment.

And now, losing Brad Richards and Ribeiro down the middle and the 150 points that came with them in a typical season, the Stars try to figure out where they are getting their offensive creativity from moving forward. They certainly have their work cut out for them.

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The James Neal/Alex Goligoski Trade - 1 year later

February 21, 2011: F James Neal Traded to Pittsburgh by Dallas with D Matt Niskanen for D Alex Goligoski.

I have been asked more than a few times recently to review the events of that day with a year of perspective in our rearview mirror and ask the question whether the Stars did the right thing. The obvious reasons are the one-year anniversary, the guarded position the Stars stand in the Western Conference playoff race, and the visit this evening by Neal and Niskanen for the Pittsburgh Penguins on Dallas ice at the American Airlines Center.

Before I get to breaking down the trade from our wonderful position to second-guess, let's examine the here and now for the 3 players involved:

James Neal, 24, is already having the best year of his career. His previous highs were as a 22-year old in Dallas where he spent the year almost entirely with Brad Richards and Loui Eriksson and had 27 goals and 28 assists for 55 points in 78 points. But, this year, playing a ton with the league's soon-to-be-MVP Evgeni Malkin, Neal has already eclipsed his previous highs and sits on 30 goals and 31 assists for 61 points with 20 games to play. 30 goals is good for 4th in the NHL this morning, behind Steven Stamkos, Malkin, and Phil Kessel. 13 of his 30 goals have come on the power play - a number that puts him 2nd in the NHL with the man advantage, trailing Philadelphia's Scott Hartnell who has 15. The Penguins have decided he is a part of their core and have paid him $30m over the next 6 seasons in a contract extension.

Matt Niskanen, 25, remains a bottom pairing defensemen in Pittsburgh, like he was in Dallas. He has demonstrated the ability to play higher in the lineup during injuries and has performed at a level that seems to suggest he belongs in the NHL, something that was not happening last season in Dallas before the trade. In sports, we often wonder about how a player is developed and what damage can be done to a psyche from continued failure if confidence falls through the floor. The trade offered him a fresh start and a new approach to the game with a winning organization where he had a clean slate with the coaching staff. Having played in over 350 games in the NHL, he appears to be what he will be, which is a depth defensemen with some puck skills but an aversion to physical play. He will be a restricted free agent this summer in Pittsburgh.

Alex Goligoski, 26, has jumped into the Stars mix on the blue-line as a player that leads the team in ice-time when he has remained healthy. His 22:40 per game puts him top on the roster and despite missing 11 games with injury this season, he still has played 3 minutes more on the power play than any other player on the team. Think about that number. His statistical production is modest as the Stars Power Play remains rather powerless, but the Stars wanted to acquire a piece of that puzzle in this trade to run their power play, help move the puck as a defenseman, and anchor the unit for the next several years. They extended him last month with a 4-year, $18.4m deal.

Now, let's go back 1 year and discuss what was happening. Three things in particular are worth mentioning.

1) the impending departure of Brad Richards, the man who had run the Stars power play and offense in general since the exit of Sergei Zubov, was in the final year of his contract. Given the role Richards had with the Stars man advantage, where he would often run the PP from the point as the QB of it all, the Stars had to make sure that they had a plan on how to compete on any level of quality if they decided to either trade Richards or if they were to lose him in the offseason via free agency (which of course happened).

2) the Stars ownership situation was in no position to do business with Richards, nor was Richards in any position to commit to the future of the Stars franchise without knowing who the owner was that would gain control from the NHL and/or bankruptcy courts.

3) the Stars had just finished a season series with the Vancouver Canucks that was a 4-game beat-down of the highest order. To review, the scores were 4-1, 7-1, 4-1, and 5-2. The games were played within a 6-week period of time where the Stars had to play one of the top teams of the league and were exposed each time because of a blue-line that could not breakout the puck at the NHL level with any consistency. Vancouver, as styles make fights, had just the roster to attack and expose this weakness at the highest and most humiliating level. The 20-5 total goals beating and the way that it happened made things loud and clear for the Stars' brass to see that they needed to build a defense that could handle the puck. Their blue-line in some of those games consisted of Stephane Robidas and Trevor Daley to do all of the puck moving, because the rest of the group wasn't capable. Nik Grossman, Mark Fistric, Jeff Woywitka, Karlis Skrastins, and Matt Niskanen are five guys who have their positives, but composure with the puck on their sticks in their own end is not one of them.

With that information and the feeling that "Richards is gone" to work with, Joe Nieuwendyk had to figure something out quickly. When rebuilding a franchise, you must start with a #1 center, #1 defenseman, and a #1 goalie. The Stars felt that they had their center in Jamie Benn on the way, their goalie in Kari Lehtonen was already there, and now they needed a top shelf defenseman. But, those are very expensive if you want a proven top pair guy. So, you must speculate. Who is not a top pair D-man with their squad, but would be in Dallas if you go get him?

And that is what took them to Pittsburgh. The Penguins know they can only pay so many guys and need scoring wingers around Sidney Crosby and Malkin. They already tried a puck-moving-defenseman-for-winger trade the year before when Ryan Whitney was dealt away for Chris Kunitz. And with their top trio on defense of Kris Letang, Paul Martin, and Brooks Orpik locked in, they could afford to deal the very talented Goligoski before he comes up for free agency in the summer of 2012.

Less than 36 hours after the final beating in Vancouver, he pulled the trigger.

Did the Stars want to lose Neal? Of course not. But, they felt Eriksson and Benn were the two keepers in the 3 man trio and the third would be used to acquire a major weakness on the team, and even today, you could argue that they got that decision right.

When national types simply look at stat lines and surmise that James Neal is on career-highs while the Stars power play is awful, it is easy to deduce that Pittsburgh took Nieuwendyk to the cleaners. I even heard one respected voice suggesting that Matt Niskanen for Goligoski is comparable, and if you believe that Nisky was going to play top minutes on this Dallas blue-line in 2012 and run the power play from the point, then you are as crazy as that respected voice was when he uttered such nonsense.

There are countless benefits to playing with Malkin that must be calculated. Neal is a real talent, but don't think for a second that he would be scoring 30 in 60 games anywhere in the league. He went to the perfect scenario and actually is one of the few players that will ever find that he can leave Brad Richards' wing and find an even better center.

Has Goligoski made the trade a win for the Stars? No, not yet, anyway. They need to give him more to work with to see it ever return to where the Stars can take teams apart on the power play. It was said a few weeks back that he is more "Sydor than Zubov". I would concede that point, but only because Zubov is a slam dunk hall of fame type in my mind. We can search for the next Sergei Zubov for a long time and not find him, let alone find him in the same organization. There would be nothing wrong with Goligoski being a Sydor type as long as he is not alone back there. He is certainly not a #1 defenseman who can do everything for you. But, can he be a solid #2 or #3 on a contender? Absolutely, I feel he can. But, to find that out, the Stars still need to figure out how to reel in that #1 Pronger/Chara/Lidstrom/Weber type, and they don't make very many of those.

If the Stars still had Neal but didn't have any plans on defense for the power play or offense from the back end, I think they would be in big trouble. Credit the Stars from adding Goligoski, Philip Larsen, and Sheldon Souray so now they have a blue-line with Daley and Robidas that actually looks substantially more comfortable and better in getting the puck out of their own end. Perfect? Far from it, but Vancouver isn't going to hammer them 20-5 this season.

The Penguins were a much better hockey team than Dallas before the trade and the trade wasn't going to change that. A trade of assets so that each team could address their weaknesses makes sense on both sides. It did not mean that Pittsburgh had all of the needs that Dallas had, nor does it mean that the Stars would get to play with Crosby or Malkin and see their stats soar. In my mind, the Stars had to pay to get a guy that can help them stay competitive in a post-Richards time period, before the new owner can bring in a few more elite pieces to get this team back to the cap and back to contending. And to get that piece, they would have to deal a scoring winger that would hurt to see among the league scoring leaders.

Despite that, as the 3 key figures of this deal meet again on the ice tonight in Dallas, I think the Stars understand that it was a brick in the wall that is still being built. But, I don't think they see it as a deal they would like to take back. And for the time being, I tend to agree.

They just need to keep building this summer.

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