The Morning After: Super Bowl 47

One always must be careful when they are hours from an event to not get carried away with superlatives and labels and proclamations that this was one of the best things someone has ever seen, only to re-read accounts a year or two later and realize that it missed the mark with its historical value.

However, in terms of getting a Super Bowl that seemed to contain just about everything, I would have to believe that Super Bowl 47 will stand the test of time.  This game was filled with everything.  Including a blow-out and a nail-biter in the very same game.  Hard to believe, but this particular Super Bowl continued a string of high drama Super Bowls that goes back now 6 big games.  If you start with the first Patriots-Giants games, continue with Steelers-Cardinals, on through Manning's Pick-6 against the Saints as the Colts were driving to tie with 3:24 to go, the Packer-Steelers, Giants-Patriots again, and now this?  Awesome, awesome stuff.

In the history of the NFL championship game re-labeled the Super Bowl, you have to go back a long, long way to find even 3 consecutive close games that were in doubt late in the 4th Quarter.  In fact, I searched all the way back to World War 2 - long before the 2-minute warning existed - and did not see a string of 3.  So, since we are at 6 and counting, this is a fantastic string of drama we are on.

But, who ever saw this game being full of drama late?  At 28-6, we had thoughts of all of the many blow-outs in Super Bowl history, including several in this very city and this very stadium.  This one had Cowboys-Broncos, Raiders-Eagles, Bears-Patriots, and 49ers-Broncos written all over it early in the 3rd Quarter.

And then the unforgettable story-line of the power outage hit right after Jacoby Jones had appeared to have locked up the Super Bowl MVP award given that he had his handprint on the two most exciting plays of the game to that point.  35 minutes we sat there and wondered what was going to happen next as the Superdome had lost huge grids of lights and power.  CBS scrambled to find anyone who could still use their equipment as it was clear Jim Nantz and Phil Simms could not.  Finally, after plenty of $4 million-a-piece commercials ran in a row, a disheveled Steve Tasker took to the microphone and tried to explain what was happening.

Given that it was only 98 seconds into the 2nd half, it was a very odd stoppage to an already elongated intermission for the Super Bowl and Beyonce.  The effects of the 2nd intermission and the almost 90 minutes the Ravens offense went between snaps will be long debated, but now, given that they survived the 49ers rally, it will be but a footnote in history.

It was 28-6 when the lights returned, only for the 49ers to then score on the first 3 possessions that started after play resumed.  Michael Crabtree broke tackles and scored, then Frank Gore barreled in on a beautiful sweep, and then the Niners stubbed their toe and settled for a FG that was first missed and then made after a penalty for running into the kicker, putting the score at 28-23, Ravens, with 3:04 left in the 3rd Quarter.

At this juncture of the game, we would find out plenty about the Ravens.  In particular, we would find out plenty about their coach, John Harbaugh and their QB, Joe Flacco.  They would not be required to play the final 18 minutes of the game against a rolling 49ers squad that has momentum and swagger, and arguably a better roster.

Harbaugh, one year older than his more famous younger brother, Jim, had a number of occasions this year where he had to make decisions.  And there are many where he decided to make the very aggressive choice.  The biggest one over the course of the season was to fire his offensive coordinator, the very respected Cam Cameron, on December 10th, when the team sat at 9-4 and had a 2 game lead in their division.

I can only imagine the controversy this might have caused locally, if the Cowboys would ever do something so bold and dare I say, reckless, when sitting so close to the playoffs with a divisional crown seemingly in the bag.  They then lost 2 of their final 3 games to finish 10-6 and entered the playoffs with the #4 seed and certainly could not be called one of the hottest teams entering the tournament, since they had lost 4 of 5 in December.

Harbaugh also called a game yesterday that seemed opposite of risk-aversion.  He was rolling the dice with a fake field goal that seemed ridiculous at the time, up 14-3.  He also called or at least authorized the call of the 3rd and 1 back-shoulder fade to Anquan Boldin, when it appeared to be a perfect time to ask Ray Rice to get you 1 yard after Jim Harbaugh properly challenged a spot the play before.  This call with 7 minutes to go is another case - like the fake FG - that if it doesn't work, it will be one of the plays that will get him barbecued.  It is a classic case of stepping away from conventional wisdom and taking a chance.  A chance that shows faith in a QB and a WR to make a play and then players who deliver.

Which brings us to his QB, Flacco, who seems to do a nice job of accomplishing plenty in this league without ever getting credit.  He plays a style that seems under-valued in a league that loves to proclaim QBs the be-all, end-all of every franchise.  And here he is, with 9 playoff victories under his belt just 5 seasons into his career, with a Super Bowl ring that he did plenty of the heavy lifting.

So, was he improperly ignored before this last month?  Yes and No.  Here is Flacco, with a 5-4 playoff record to this juncture, with a QB rating in the post-season of 70.  The league average is in the low-80s, so 70 is pretty bad.  During that time, he averaged about 170 yards per game and totaled 8 TDs and 8 INTs in the post-season.  To compare, Mark Sanchez has a playoff rating of 94, with 9 TDs and 3 INTs over a similar span and 192 yards per game.  And both were placed in a bin of QBs who were winning games in the post-season, but were they really winning them or were they simply the QB on a team that was winning them?

On to 2012, where Flacco became the only QB ever to have 4 playoff games in one post-season with a passer rating over 100.  He averaged 285 yards per game in this tournament and had 11 TDs without a single interception.  In fact, in beating Peyton Manning on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  In beating Tom Brady on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  And finally, last night, with the world watching, he threw 3 TDs in taking down the San Francisco 49ers.

After 5 seasons, he has equaled the win total of Tom Brady for most playoff victories (9) at that point of a career.  Think about that for a second.  And those 3rd Down plays he made in the 4th Quarter, including the check-off to the fade to Boldin helped them secure the game.

A game that was certainly in doubt on the final 49ers drive.  Colin Kaepernick had an excellent game, in my opinion, as well.  Even when they were down 28-6, it was extremely difficult to say he was the reason why.  Sure, he sailed an interception to Ed Reed on a throw down the middle, but overall, he was putting passes right on the money and was even betrayed a few times by receivers that were asked to make difficult catches and were unable to do so.  But for a rookie, we have seen that the 49ers appear to have a real stud with which to build their offense around for years to come.

Jim Harbaugh also followed his gut this season and had the resolve to make that change at QB that seemed to leave conventional thinking as well.  But, he was rewarded with it by now having a clear picture of what his young QB is capable of before he had to choose what to do with his veteran.  Now, as their season ends in disappointment, there is no question that Alex Smith will need to go elsewhere to ever start again.

But, they will be kicking themselves this entire off-season for that final sequence.  They took the ball from their own 20 with 4:19 to go, down 34-29.  A touchdown likely gives them the Super Bowl, provided they don't score too soon.  And they almost did after a long Crabtree reception and a strong run from Gore took the ball down to the Baltimore 7 with 2:39 left.

From there, a run moves them to the 5 at the 2 minute warning.  Now, they have 3 throws to Michael Crabtree on the final 3 offensive snaps of the game.  All 3 are incomplete and all 3 were not really even close.  In fact, in doing so, the 49ers also wasted a timeout that pretty much sealed their fate.  Had everything gone the same except for the wasted timeout, they likely would have still had another drive after another Ted Ginn return from mid-field.

Should the 49ers have run the ball again?  Or at least put a play on that allows Kaepernick to be at his best with a run/pass option?  Well, the Ravens made sure that if he did anything, it was going to be under enormous pressure because again, Baltimore is not afraid to roll the dice.  They blitzed hard on 3rd down and harder on 4th.  If anything, you would have liked to have found Vernon Davis, but he never even looked in that direction on the backside from his triple receivers.

But, with only 1 timeout left, the Ravens did not have to ever return the ball with enough time for even one more snap.

In the end, the Ravens had built up enough to hold on.  Barely.  The game went to its final seconds and both teams played a heck of a game.

The Ravens now have their 2nd Super Bowl trophy and the 49ers remain at 5.  New Orleans, power outage notwithstanding, had a fantastic week and is back in the Super Bowl mix after a long wait.

And here we sit, 213 days before the next meaningful NFL game is played.

Sorry to end this recap on such a downer.  Hurry back, NFL.

Read More

One More Thing...The Hall of Fame

You are going to hear quite a few media types using cliches today - as they are wont to do - and one will be along of lines of saying, "now that all the hype is behind us, all we have left is the football game."

And they would be forgetting one very important item that must be covered in this space.  At least, one of my favorite portions of Super Bowl week every year and something that I never get tired of discussing; Hall of Fame induction Day.

I feel like the other sports have rather random ways of announcing their hall of fame inductees and they often announce them in their offseason on a day when you aren't really thinking about that sport.  But, not my football.  Oh, no.  Football properly takes advantage of having its universe all located in the same city for the Super Bowl and makes the day before the big game the day where they ask their exclusive voters to assemble for an all-morning and much of the afternoon voting session that will end in that year's class.  They will be inducted at the dawn of the next season in Canton for the first preseason game, but the year ends as the new class is announced.  It is perfect in its symmetry if you ask me.

So, while many are typing up their game previews (I certainly feel this is the 49ers game to lose.  And it is not about Kaepernick as much as it is about the team concept is where San Francisco has consistently been the best team in football this year.  That is not to say that their QB doesn't matter, it is just that it doesn't matter AS MUCH as other teams.  They are loaded everywhere and have two more important things that teams like the Cowboys can only dream about: health and depth.  They were the single healthiest team in the league this year which only amplifies the talent discrepancies it enjoys at so many positions.  Then, in the rare cases where they did need a proper backup, they were able to use their very high draft picks to solidify their openings.  The Ravens are built much the same way, but as we did see many moons ago when the Cowboys had them beat in Baltimore, they are just not that solid on the defense as we are led to believe by the media.  They are a team that is on a very nice run and they also do have the feel as the annual "hot team in the playoffs", but I will resist the urge to fall for the Ray Lewis narrative and stick with my eyeballs and take San Francisco, 24-20.  It should be an excellent game that pretty much nobody predicted this year.  And just so you take my prediction no more seriously than you should, I had New England beating Green Bay in this game back in August when we had to file our season picks.), I will get after this year's Hall of Fame vote.

There was a time from a Cowboys perspective that Dallas was wildly under-represented in Canton.  Sure, there were some players who were in the Hall of Fame who played a small portion of their career in Dallas like Lance Alworth, Herb Adderley, Forrest Gregg, Tommy McDonald, Mike Ditka, and Jackie Smith.  But, none of those guys were guys who would be considered Cowboys by visitors of the Hall.  Jackie may have had his biggest moment with the Cowboys, but he only played one season here and had such a bigger career than that one moment in the end-zone of Super Bowl 13 would suggest.  Google him and be impressed.

But, for a team that had such a great track record of success, as of 2004, the only actual Cowboys' players who were in the Hall of Fame were: Bob Lilly (inducted in 1980), Roger Staubach (1985), Tony Dorsett (1994), Randy White (1994), and Mel Renfro (1996).

That number was nice, but frankly, when the Houston Oilers could boast a similar number, it did not seem to properly reflect the amount of winning the franchise had done over the years.  Look at Pittsburgh and Oakland - these are teams who were able to get way more players in from those dominant teams of the 1970's and 1980's.  But, the Cowboys hit a wall for almost a decade.

Then, in 2006, in Miami, the wall came tumbling down.  That year, it was Troy Aikman and Rayfield Wright.  In 2007, Michael Irvin got the call.  In 2009, Bob Hayes was honored.  In 2010, it was Emmitt Smith and in 2011, Deion Sanders was inducted.  Sanders, of course, is likely remembered more for playing with several teams, but everyone else were clear Cowboys.  So, in just a handful of years, the number of Cowboys went from 5 to 10.  Things seemed to be equalized.  The cries of the "Anti-Cowboys bias" have been quieted quite a bit.

That doesn't mean that all of the cases are closed.  There are still many around here - including me as I have written several times - who believe Drew Pearson needs to be in.  At this point, he will need to go the route of Bob Hayes with the senior committee, but I still can't believe that a guy with moments as big as his would not eventually get in.

Harvey Martin also seems like a worthy inductee and we could actually make quite a list of others while we are at it that, but there are two more who might get in tomorrow when the committee convenes for the 2013 session.

The first is one of those no-brainers who will be in either this year or next year.  He is one of those "it is simply a matter of time" guys because in the last 20 years, nobody has been a better offensive lineman than Larry Allen.  A giant human with even larger feats of strength than guys his size, Allen dominated his opponents with great ease and routine.  Having played left tackle, left guard, right guard, and right tackle, it was pretty clear that Allen could fix any positional issue the Cowboys had over his long career, and in his prime was the best of the best.

He was named to both the all-decade team of the 1990s and the all decade team of the 2000s.  At the end of his stay in Dallas he wasn't at his peak, but if you consider his 14 years as a whole, Allen is exceeded at guard only by one player - John Hannah - for All-Pro teams.  Hannah made 10, whereas Allen was on 7 which tied him with Gene Upshaw (Jim Parker had 8 as a tackle/guard).

This season, 3 offensive linemen are up for induction.  Will Shields is in his 2nd year of eligibility and has credentials that indicate his wait won't be long, too, and Jonathan Ogden is in his 1st year.  The believe is that 2 get in, so while I feel Allen is in this class, there is no predicting the voters choice.

The other Cowboys interest is for Charles Haley.  His notable talking point is that he has 5 Super Bowl victories: 23, 24, 27, 28, and 30.  That is fantastic, and he was in on at least one sack in 4 of those Super Bowls.  He also has 100.5 sacks and although 100 seems like a magic number for Hall of Fame consideration, don't be so sure.

Leslie O'Neal has 132, Simeon Rice has 122, Sean Jones 113, Greg Townsend 109, Trace Armstrong 106, and yes, even Jim Jeffcoat has 102.5.  And if you knew that Jeffcoat had more career sacks than Charles Haley, then I congratulate you.  Because that surprised me.

Now, guys like Howie Long (84) have fewer sacks than Haley and are in the Hall of Fame, but Greg Ellis also has 84, so we must assume that sack totals do not tell all.  Which likely lead us back to 7 championship games and 5 Super Bowl rings.

The other oddity of Haley's career was that on those 1992 and 1993 Cowboys teams that are considered amongst the greatest single-season teams of this lifetime, he only finished 3rd and 4th in sacks.  In 1992, Jeffcoat had 10.5, Tony Tolbert 8.5, and Haley had 6.  In 1993, Tolbert had 7.5, Jeffcoat 6, Jimmie Jones 5.5, and Haley just 4.  Those numbers are hard to process.

Now, having just viewed Super Bowl 27, I will attest to the fact that Haley was a monster that day and All-Pro tackle Will Wolford was beaten badly.  So, when the chips were down, he performed, but there are some production numbers that are problematic.

Meanwhile, for all of Howie Long's points earned as a personality who endeared himself to the public with smiles and television time, Haley will have a hill to overcome in that department as well.  As we know, the media votes, so if you spent most of your career trying to scare the media or at least be difficult, then hopefully the media is not vindictive (lol).

My best guess at the class - which means who I expect to get in, not who I believe SHOULD be voted in is likely to be: Larry Allen, Cris Carter, Art Modell, Jonathan Ogden, Dave Robinson, and Michael Strahan.

I figure that this prediction will be about as reliable as the Patriots beating the Packers on Sunday, but just know that I will be locked in on Saturday as the new class is announced.  I personally hope Charles Haley gets the call, but I assume that Strahan will vault past with his 141 sacks, New York personality, and big Super Bowl moment.  But, perhaps I am wrong.  And that doesn't even consider Bill Parcells, Warren Sapp, Tim Brown, or Andre Reed.

As you can see, there are more worthy candidates than there are spaces available.  And that won't change as a new crop is eligible every year.

I still look forward to the day where this process is fully televised, but the voters think this would irreparably damage the ability for voters to speak freely.  That may be the case, but it sure seems like transparency is one way to take away vendettas or at least make people with them be accountable.

Either way, the discussion are fun for those of us who are not hanging on every vote.  Pity the players who must, until their day arrives - if, in fact, it does.

Read More

New Orleans Is Back

It has been said that there are two ways to get the media on your side - free stuff and great food.  That seems like a reduction in the cognitive skills of said journalists, but in fairness, if they are going to combine the two into "free great food" then, we might have a situation where the tractor beam certainly locks on and never let's us loose.

And, given the fact that last night, the city of New Orleans has let loose on the greatest Super Bowl party that I have ever been subject to, filled with 50 of the city's finest restaurants bringing their proudest dishes for hundreds of media types, you would think that someone like me might be affected by that and now willing to give this city a fine review because of a full and happy belly.

Well, you would be wrong;

For, I was already celebrating the greatness of New Orleans before I consumed my first crawfish last night.

After 11 years away from New Orleans, we are back in maybe the finest Super Bowl city of them all.  Sunday, New Orleans will host its 10th giant game, pulling even with Miami for the leader in SB cities, and now that I have been attending these weeks for 12 years, I feel I am now at least sort of qualified to rate them.

And the best I have been to seem to generally revolve around those two cities and San Diego for certain built-in advantages they have that Indianapolis or Detroit just cannot compete with.  I want to attempt to keep an open mind about the New York City Super Bowl we are being asked to deal with next season, but let's be honest: the forefathers of the Super Bowl did not intend for winter coats to be part of the equation, as they put the first several Super Bowls in Los Angeles, Miami, and New Orleans.  Even in the 1960s, this was not hard to compute that in the dead of winter, the teams, their fans, and the whole world would love to find an excuse to to arrive down south and consider the possibility of short sleeves in late January/early February.

Of course, back then, it was more like mid-January, but you get the idea.  There was a reason that Green Bay and Chicago were never considered, so why they are getting stadiums approved with the condition that Indianapolis, Detroit, and New York would also get to host their big day in the sun seems absurd for a sport that doesn't need add-ons like this to be successful.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans hard in 2005, and the stadium itself, the Super Dome was converted into a temporary refuge for tens of thousands of people who had no other place to go.  They weren't worried about hosting a Super Bowl for years because they were simply trying to preserve the future of their city.  But now, in early 2013, this event is in some ways a huge milestone that things have fully recovered and the city is now at maximum levels of entertainment and energy.

From a Cowboys standpoint, New Orleans has been the site of some fantastic days, including the time the Cowboys went from being "next year's champion" to being the undisputed champ in Super Bowl VI.  It was in New Orleans where they finally were able to close the deal with Roger Staubach and Duane Thomas doing the heavy lifting on offense and Bob Griese being chased down by Bob Lilly for a sack that has been shown on NFL Films a million times.  Instead of living in disappointments after season ending-losses to Green Bay, Cleveland, and Baltimore, they finally stood on top of the world with their their heads high after crushing Miami, 24-3, cementing the relationship between your Cowboys and New Orleans for ever.

If that wasn't enough, the Cowboys came back 6 years later and played in the 1st ever Super Bowl played indoors in the Crescent City, and were able to enjoy the benefits of the Denver Broncos being a generous turnover machine, as the Cowboys won easily over the Broncos and their former QB Craig Morton, 27-10.

So, you can see that when you attend 5 Super Bowls, but have you heart broken 3 times in Miami, but win big both visits to New Orleans, that the Cowboys certainly enjoyed their adventures here back in the day.

They have never returned to the big game here, as their chances at Super Bowl 31 and the end of the triplets dynasty ended in Carolina in a year where Brett Favre returned home to win his one and only Super Bowl.  The Cowboys other 3 SB titles were in 4 short years in the early 90's, of course, in Pasadena (which hasn't hosted since), Atlanta (also hosted Super Bowl 34), and Tempe (not hosted since, although Glendale did host Super Bowl 42 and will also host Super Bowl 49).

New Orleans also has crowned the Steelers (SB 9), the Raiders (SB 15), the Bears (SB 20), the 49ers (SB 24), and was the site for the very first title of the Patriots era (SB 36), which, ahem, included that video-taping accusation of the Rams workouts as you may recall.

What makes New Orleans great is pretty difficult to narrow down.  Obviously, it is a city that is made for entertaining its guests.  It is prepared to do so with a downtown that is compacted together so that "walking distance" is always an option.  There are hundreds or restaurants and more hotels than you could ever need all right there on top of the places you want to be.

This can be taken for granted unless you have ever stayed in Georgia and had to drive in to Jacksonville each day of the Super Bowl week, or had nice long drives all over Detroit, Indianapolis, or yes, our fair city of Dallas-Fort Worth.  Centrally located?  "What is that?"is a question that was clearly not asked much when laying out the metroplex for a visitor's benefit.  We have learned to deal with it, but the visitor notices that every attraction is 40 minutes from the others.  Well, when you compare it to New Orleans, that has everything within 1-mile in any direction, the differences are obvious.

This is also a city that was packed with civic pride long before Katrina made her acquaintance.  Now, since the city was beaten up pretty badly, civic pride oozes everywhere.  The people that live here love this place, and want you to give it a chance to do the same.  Not exactly some of the other cities where the residents cannot wait for the Super Bowl to hurry up and get out of here so we can go back to our lives.

I hadn't been back here since the 2003 Final Four, when Carmelo Anthony and Syracuse took down Kansas in a Final Four that also featured Dwyane Wade and TJ Ford.  Before that, it seemed we were always coming here for something.

But, I am here to report that this city has it going on and is quite alive and well.  And as a few of us spoiled media types were discussing our annual pilgrimages to the biggest week on the NFL calendar, it did cross my mind again that if the league wanted to simply rotate the game on a basis of cities that are perfect for this event, it would go back to how Lamar Hunt and friends laid things out a long, long time ago: Miami, Los Angeles/San Diego, and New Orleans.

It might seem unfair to the Clevelands and Seattles of the world that they never get their turn, but let's be honest:  Some cities were made for weeks like this.

And clearly, New Orleans is one of them.

I will try not to eat all of the food while I am here.

Read More

Watching Super Bowl 27 - 20 Years Later

For the 20th anniversary of the Cowboys 1992 Super Bowl appearance in Pasadena in Jan 1993, I wanted to pop in the DVDs - that I have with the expressed written consent of the NFL and the Dallas Cowboys - and view Super Bowl 27 again.  Below is my running diary of the experience.

Pregame show:

Magic Johnson asks the triplets where they look for Super Bowl experience and Emmitt answers that they only have two players with experience, Ray Horton and Charles Haley.  “And everybody knows what talking to Charles is like.”  Big laughter.

Emiitt is wearing one of his trademark vests.  But, man, those triplets look very young.  And Michael, of course, has sunglasses on inside.  And adds that they “cook hamburgers better in Dallas when you are winning”. 

End of interview with Magic also involves Michael pointing out that he wants Emmitt to win the MVP because his contract is up and Troy doesn’t need it because he will always get all of the money. 

NBC have Bob Trumpy and Dick Enberg on the call for Super Bowl 27.  Trumpy says that the Bills will need to slow down Emmitt Smith and the Cowboys will need to slow down Thurman Thomas.  So, some pretty crazy commentary being thrown down here.

Trumpy on waiting for the game to begin for the players: “Even though it is hell, there is nowhere else you would rather be.”

Cornelius Bennett uses his moment on camera in starting lineups to sing some indecipherable song.

Garth Brooks seems to have performed a stirring rendition of the national anthem standing along side a lady who signed the song for America.

And here to perform the coin-flip?  OJ Simpson, of course!   Clear Buffalo bias from the Juice as the Bills win the toss and elected to receive.  The Cowboys are clearly doomed.  Dick Enberg tells us that yesterday in rehearsal, the coin toss went to Buffalo all 5 times.  Who knew that they rehearsed the coin toss with stand-ins?  He tells us the odds of the toss going to Buffalo 6 straight times is 64 to 1.  Didn’t seem likely.

Oddsmakers tell us Dallas will win by 7.  49-year old Jimmy Johnson stalks the sideline as he finishes his 4^th year with the Cowboys.

1^st Quarter:

Buffalo receives and trots out the “K-Gun”.   Andre Reed catches a cross for 14 yards, and the Bills up-tempo hurry is off and running.  But on 3^rd and 3, Russell Maryland chases Kelly out to the left flat where Thomas Everett cleans up for a sack and they force a punt.

Cowboys take over at the 15 after the punt for their first possession.  A pass to Emmitt and a run to Emmitt gets a total of 1 yard, setting up a 3^rd and long.  On 3^rd and 9, Troy airmails a pass to Irvin and it is a 3 and out.  Mike Saxon to punt, and the Bills get to the punt as Steve Tasker blocks it out of bounds.  Enberg lets out his first “Oh, my!” and the Bills have the first major break of the game.  Tasker blew by #55 Robert Jones and got there, and the Bills get the ball at the Cowboys 16.

The Bills get stuffed by Kenny Gant who is described as having the Shark Dance, and then on 3^rd Down Charles Haley destroys Left Tackle Will Wolford and causes a sack and fumble.  But, a very late flag on Larry Brown holding on James Lofton gives the Bills an automatic 1^st Down.  Thurman Thomas capitalizes and goes off right tackle for a short touchdown and the Bills strike 1^st.  7-0 Bills.

It is time to discuss the last AFC win in the Super Bowl back in 1984 when the Raiders beat the Redskins.  That was also a game where the AFC team blocked a punt.  Hmmmm.

Cowboys 2^nd possession starts with Emmitt getting nothing on 1^st Down.  A dump down to a “true cowboy”, Jay Novacek who we are told competed in the 1984 Olympic trials in the decathlon.  Enberg is telling us everything about everyone now.   Here is one on Jimmy Johnson: “the son of a super intendent of an ice cream factory.”

Trumpy tries to blame Michael Irvin not lining up correctly on Super Bowl nerves.  Not sure I buy that, but a false start backs the Cowboys up and is made worse when Novacek drops a pass and Cornelius Bennett right in Aikman’s face.  A 3^rd and long pass is behind Kelvin Martin on another Buffalo blitz and it seems Aikman is not locked in so far.  Saxon on again to punt and Robert Jones has been replaced by Dixon Edwards on the punt block team.

Bills 3^rd possession starts at their 20, and Maryland blows up a run play to Thurman Thomas.  On 2^nd Down, Tony Casillas does the same and the defensive line looks very active.  Haley can do whatever he wants against Wolford who is thought of as a fantastic left tackle normally.  3^rdand long is a poor throw, but Leon Lett gets flagged for roughing Jim Kelly after the throw.  Enberg tells us Dave Wannstedt calls Lett the best backup tackle in football, but that is a dumb penalty. 

The Bills then hit Andre Reed out at midfield on the next play, but on 1^st Down from there, Kelly challenges James Washington again and this time James steps up and picks it off.  Pete Metzelaars slipped and a Cowboys blitz from Gant made Kelly cough it up, and the Cowboys take over at the Bills 47.

But, the Cowboys have 2 more negative plays to start this opportunity and on 3^rd and 16.  This time, Aikman steps into a strong pass for 20 yards to Irvin on that Bang 8 across the face of the safety.  Bread and butter.  Emmitt moves the chains again down to the 22 of Buffalo on the lead draw. 

When they went into the 1990 draft, they wanted the linebacker James Francis, so they traded up from 22 to 17, but the Bengals took Francis and the Cowboys settled for Smith.  The best player on their board was Seau that year. 

On the next play, Aikman finds Novacek on a seam route down the numbers and this game is tied at 7.  On the extra point, Tommie Agee just grabs the face mask of a defender and forces a 30 yard extra point, but it is converted.   1:36 left in the 1^stQuarter.

The Bills are backed up after a kickoff penalty and on the 1^stplay of the possession from their 10, Charles Haley again destroys Howard Ballard and sacks Kelly who loses the ball right to Jimmie Jones and the big man falls into the endzone for a defensive score.  Lin Elliott makes it 14-7.  Haley must be considered for MVP so far.

Bills ball again, barely, after the kick return was fumbled, but Buffalo gets it back after Gant strips the ball from the returner, Brad Lamb.  Kenneth Davis with a few useful carries as Thurman Thomas is limping around on the sideline as the quarter ends.

The 21 points is the highest scoring 1^st Quarter in Super Bowl history.

2^nd Quarter:

The quarter opens with a huge cross to Andre Reed from the slot as Reed runs away from Gant all the way down to the 5-yard line.  He has 3 catches for 74 yards already.  Thomas puts the ball down to the 1 on another counter to RT, then limps off again.  Davis runs into Ken Norton at the goal line and that is a huge play. Levy has to decide what to do on 4^thand goal from 1-foot from pay-dirt, and keeps his offense on the field.

The 4^th down pass is a rollout right for Kelly and when things get jammed up with Tolbert bringing pressure, he tries for his tight end Metzelaars, but Thomas Everett sits on that and picks it off again in the endzone for the Bills 3^rd giveaway already.   11:59 left in the half, and the Cowboys take over at the 20.

Enberg confuses Leon Lett with Godfrey Miles which seems difficult to do, but Miles looks to be injured and is eventually carted off with a knee.  Aikman shows some scrambling ability as he moves the chains out to the 43.   Drive stalls as the Bills aren’t letting Emmitt get loose and Saxon must punt it back to the Bills.

Another linebacker blitz ruins a play as Ken Norton causes a poor pass and leaves Kelly on the field in considerable pain on that bad knee.  And it looked pretty bad on replay as Norton was in mid-air after being cut by a running back and thus crushed Kelly who is helped off.  So, here comes Frank Reich on 3^rd and 3, who does a nice job on his 1^st play to hit Metzelaars for a 1^st down to 40. 

Then, he hits Reed in the seam of a zone for 38 more yards and Reich has started very well.  Kelly is keeping  his helmet on as he is carted off.  Don Beebe is open for a slant but Larry Brown recovers and might have tipped the ball.  Or, Beebe just dropped it. 

Haley has never lifted weights in his life – Trumpy

3^rd and 1 for Reich from the 4 yard line and Thomas cannot get there as Haley does it again.  This time, Levy is kicking with Steve Christie and the Bills settle for a FG and it is 14-10.

Enberg continues to elaborate on Novacek’s private life, this time detailing his channel selection in his cabin in Nebraska.  Just 1 channel!  Amazing.

Now, on the final play before the 2 minute warning, Moose gets a big block and Emmitt hits it for 38 yards on the lead draw to the Bills 19.  On the next play, Bang 8 on the other side this time to Irvin for the Touchdown.   This play is better described here by Troy Himself in a previous blog post I have written and Part 2 is here.  It is well worth reading.  The Norv Turner timing-based offense legend grows on this play and the lead grows to 21-10 with 1:54 to go in the half.

So, the Bills take over and try a safe pass to Thurman Thomas on the swing to the right, but as he fights for yards, Thomas is stripped by Lett and the Bills turn the ball over again!  4^th Giveaway and Jimmie Jones recovers and now the Cowboys can go for the kill shot with a +4.

It takes one play, and Troy finds Irvin on a deep out to the right sideline.  Irvin attacks the ball against corner James Williams and then twists and falls across the goal-line to put the score to 28-10.  Kelly and Thurman Thomas have been the major reasons why the Bills are getting destroyed. 

Enberg: Jimmy Johnson doesn’t like jokes, but does like Don Rickles.   No idea.

Bills just trying to get to the room, but Kenneth Davis almost fumbled the ball away again.  The Bills decided that they might still find some points before halftime decide to throw a deep pass to Beebe, and Larry Brown gets in front of it for takeaway #5 in the 1^st half alone.  Amazing.

Jimmy and his Miami ring story.  Could become the only coach to win a Super Bowl and a national championship – although Paul Brown won the college and NFL titles, too. 

The Cowboys run out the half and take the +5 turnover margin out with a huge 28-10 halftime lead. 

2 Touchdowns in 15 seconds, then 2 Touchdowns in 18 seconds for the Cowboys.

HALFTIME SHOW:

Michael Jackson performs at halftime in an effort to defeat OJ Simpson in “the most notable celebrity involved in Super Bowl 27 who could not be part of Super Bowl 47” contest.

His performance seems to be mostly about standing and letting the Rose Bowl crowd go insane in his honor for what seems to be at least 2 minutes.   Then, we get Billie Jean, Black or White, and the loudest cheers of the day. 

3^RD Quarter:

A quick look at those halftime stats show us that Buffalo has more 1^st downs and time of possession.  The Cowboys have 28 more yards, but when turnovers are 5-0, all of those other stats are just here for comedy.

Cowboys get the ball first, and it goes to Emmitt for 8 yards and then Emmitt for 12 more.  The 23-year old now has 79 yards rushing today.  On 3^rd and 3 from their 46, Aikman hits a wide-open Irvin on a comeback and he runs for a gain of 24 and a big 1^stDown to continue to do whatever they want on the 5-step drops with the timing throws.   2 more middle runs moves the ball inside the Bills’ 20.  And Jim Kelly now comes out on crutches and a stylish pair of light blue jeans.  His day is over and that means it will all be up to Frank Reich.  Keep in mind the biggest Super Bowl deficit overcome is the Redskins versus Denver when they were down 10-0 and scored 42 unanswered.

Another quick out to Irvin, and it is now first and goal.   Then, Novacek brings the all to the 2.  On 3^rdand goal, Aikman misses his receiver, so Lin Elliott comes on to kick a chip shot and push the lead to 31-10.   A long drive eats up half of the 3^rd quarter and extends the lead to 3 touchdowns.

No gainer for Derrick Gainer - Enberg. 

Reich brings the Bills on for their first shot in the 2^ndhalf, and hits his tight ends underneath with Keith McKeller to the 40.  But, their first non-descript drive ends in a punt, but Kelvin Martin shoots up the field with an explosion on the return and heads 30 yards up the field to put the Cowboys in a fantastic spot to the 41.

NBC shows Aikman’s numbers and not only are they near perfect for the game, but with 7 TDs and 0 INTs in the playoffs, they are stealing the show for the month.  Meanwhile, Mark Tuinei is keeping Bruce Smith very quiet on the edge.  3^rd and 7 to Novacek moves the chains again as they cross midfield.    

Emmitt has an inside run that gets him to 100 yards, something only Barry Foster accomplished against the Bills in all of 1992.  Enberg points out Emmitt’s family runs a football card store that he owns, where you can buy an Emmitt for $50 and a Trumpy for 38 cents.

The Cowboys faced a 4^th and 4 and decided to go for it, but Aikman’s perfect game runs out of luck as Marcvus Patton bats down the pass and the Bills actually get a stop.

One thing that should be said is that the Cowboys run almost the same 21 personnel group (2 RB, 1 TE, and 2 WR) almost the entire game, save for 3rd Down when they bring in K-Mart for Moose and switch to 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR).  The game is far more strategically complex 20 years later.

Bills take over at their 38 with 2:10 left in a fast moving 3^rd Quarter.  Andre Reed with another crossing reception for a 1^st down, but is nailed hard by Everett and is hobbled.   On 3^rd and 13, Reich looked like he had crossed the line of scrimmage before he threw a long, high throw to Beebe for a wide-open touchdown, but no flag was thrown.  So, the Bills appeared to get away with a clear violation, but with no replay, Buffalo cuts the lead to 31-17.

4^th Quarter:

Cowboys get the ball back and Aikman shows exceptional speed running up the middle for 21 yards.  Very impressive wheels, there.  On the very next play, Emmitt cut back and Bruce Smith stripped the ball into the backfield, where Aikman is paying attention and dived on the ball.  That could have been a huge moment for the Bills.  But, it didn’t happen, and Dallas almost converted a 3^rd and 19 with a dump off to Emmitt Smith in the flat, and Emmitt made it interesting., but just short at the Buffalo 48.  The punt team is sent on and the punt is briefly fumbled but retained by the Bills.

The Bills continue to look discombobulated offensively as almost no passes have gone to James Lofton.  The 3^rd Down pass does head to Lofton, but the throw isn’t close against Issac Holt.  3 and out and the Bills punt. 

Emmitt for 12 into Bills’ territory as the offensive line is starting to destroy Buffalo.  The next play is a perfect play action fake and then Alvin Harper is found galloping down the right sideline for a long, 45-yard touchdown that Harper then dunks on the goal-post.  Harper, of course, had a long, crucial TD last week in San Francisco, and Aikman has 4 touchdowns.

Dallas 38, Buffalo 17 – 10:04 to play.

The Bills have one play destroyed by Jimmie Jones, but then Reich on the next play is looking inside to Lofton and Thomas Everett jumps the play for an easy interception run back inside the Buffalo 10.  Jerry Jones is jumping up and down on the sideline as he celebrates turnover #6. 

NBC shows a graphic that demonstrates Aikman is close to a 5 TD day which only Joe Montana has had in a Super Bowl (24), but it will not happen as Emmitt Smith is given the ball on 3^rd and goal and tornado-spins his way into the endzone for yet another TD with an extra point that gets it to 45-17.

It appears rather clear that the NFC is about to win its 9^thstraight Super Bowl now. 

Just as the tv shows new Bears coach Dave Wannstedt wrapping up his job in Dallas, the Cowboys are gifted yet another TD as Reich basically just flips the ball into the air on a mis-handled shotgun snap and to Ken Norton, who runs it in for an easy score making another pair of TDs within 41 seconds.  It is now 52-17 with 7 minutes to go on the Bills 7^th turnover. 

Norton now has a goal-line stand, a knocked out Jim Kelly, and a touchdown to round out his day.  Certainly, well done. 

We also have a record for points in a Super Bowl game with 69 combined, and the Cowboys are 3 short of the 49ers record of 55 in a game. 

On the next drive, it happens again, as Steve Tasker is hit and stripped by Leon Lett and yet another fumble and loss of possession to the Cowboys.  Just ridiculous.

On comes Steve Beuerlein for Dallas, who still has half of a quarter to kill.  The Bills 8^thturnover ties them with Denver’s 8 in Super Bowl 12 and passes the Baltimore 7 in Super Bowl 5 for most all-time.  All 3 performances are against Dallas.  Somehow, the Colts won Super Bowl 5. 

Gainer fumbled the ball back as a gesture of charity, and the Cowboys commit their first giveaway. 

The next Bills drive is spent mostly focusing on Jerry Jones, his smiles, and his college football pictures at 1964 at Arkansas.

But, that conversation is broken up for one of the more famous plays of a 5-touchdown game, as Leon Lett picks up a fumble and runs the ball back only to start celebrating at the 5 yard line and is caught from behind by Don Beebe.  The ball is knocked back through the endzone and the ball is ruled a touchback.   The play has become legendary, but it had nothing to do with the game whatsoever really. 

The game really becomes about running down the clock from this point, but Buffalo keeps throwing the ball around so the announcers spend time pondering how damaging losing 3 straight Super Bowls might be. 

Jimmy is doused with Gatorade and the hair is hardly bothered.  The play was executed by Irvin hugging him as a distraction before the Gatorade arrived from behind.  Then, Emmitt is allowed to mess up his hair and hilarity ensues.

Jerry Jones arrives with a comb and Trumpy tells us that the league envies their work relationship where there is no go-between with coach and owner.  If they only knew the future.

Reich hits Lofton in the endzone with a pass that is flat-out dropped.  It has been a very forgettable day for Lofton.  Lett gets in for a final sack and the game clock expires.

The Cowboys win Super Bowl 27: 52-17.

Enberg wonders if the Cowboys are a dynasty to be in the 1990s after this. 

POSTGAME:

The MVP goes to Aikman, and although I thought Charles Haley had more to do with the Cowboys taking a lead they were never going to lose, I happily concede that Aikman was so good that with 4 Touchdowns, you could not ignore him.  He did a lot of heavy lifting on 3rd Downs and really impressed.

Maybe the most revealing and odd moments of the post game as Paul Tagliabue presents the Vince Lombardi trophy to Jerry and Jimmy.  As Costas takes over the interview, he says that Jerry signs the checks so he should go first.  Jerry agrees, “I will go first.”

As Costas interviews Jerry and Jimmy, both of them place their hands on the trophy, and neither will take their hands off.  4 hands remain on the trophy for almost 5 minutes straight with Costas in the middle.  It almost looked like they might wrestle for it. 

It was a fantastically dominating performance where the Cowboys flexed their considerable muscle.  And it was the first of what would be a magical 4 year run.

Read More

The Morning After: Super Bowl XLVI - Giants 21, Patriots 17

Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas sat empty last night, while Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, hosted Super Bowl XLVI.

But, for the 2nd year in a row, in my mind, Cowboys Stadium decided who would be the eventual NFL Champion. We all know the stadium hosted Green Bay's win over Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV, but what some might forget were the events of December 11, 2011.

For it was on that night, in that stadium, that the New York Giants - the team that won their 4th Lombardi Trophy last night - saw their season saved and sent on its path to football immortality.

2:25 to play, 4th Quarter. 3rd Down and 5 yards to go. The Giants must get a stop and then score a Touchdown on the next drive to save their season. Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell is calling for a full cover-0 blitz. They are either going to get to the QB or die trying.

At the snap, it is clear that they are in great danger. In the right slot, Aaron Ross is defending his man tight, expecting a broken-off route because of the blitz. Instead, his man runs a "Go", leaving Ross in his dust, with nothing but green grass-type artificial turf between him and the goal-line 75 yards down the field from where the ball was snapped. Ross and the Giants know they are doomed. The look of panic falls over the faces of all involved. Until...

Tony Romo and Miles Austin did not connect on that pass. As the days after that game unfolded, the story of Austin losing the ball in the lights would reveal itself. Two plays later, on the Giants winning drive, DeMarcus Ware was called offside on a play that was a fumbled snap and a near-disaster for the Giants' offense. Instead, the Giants received 5 free yards and were on their way to a great comeback victory.

That ball, lost in the lights, took about 2 seconds from the time it left Romo's hands until the point where it hit the turf a step in front of Austin. And in those 2 seconds, the NFL Championship was decided. For if the ball is caught the Cowboys win the game with ease, thus winning the NFC East Division, and thus sending the Giants to their off-season.

Instead, those 2 seconds sent events in action that resulted 56 days later in the Giants out-dueling the New England Patriots, yet again, and winning the dramatic Super Bowl by the score of 21-17.

What happened in Super Bowl 46 confirms what many have been trying to say all along. That despite the Giants spending all season on 9-7 roller coaster ride, they were a team that if they could get rolling, there would be no stopping them. And this morning, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will unhappily confirm that point.

The Patriots have a fantastic offense that seems unstoppable for most of the NFL. But, the Giants have now confirmed on 3 straight occasions, with 2 in Super Bowls, that styles make fights. And for reasons that are sometimes evident and sometimes not, the Giants routinely keep the Patriots offense pretty bottled up. They have not scored 21 points in any of those battles, and in the two Super Bowl meetings, the Patriots generated just 14 and 17 points, both in losing efforts.

Here is a statistic that should knock your socks off. The New England Patriots did not score a single point in the final 26:40 of the Super Bowl last night. And that is a gigantic reason that the Lombardi Trophy slid through New England's hands again at the final hurdle of the season.

Tom Brady started the game 20-23 for 201 yards when he hit TE Aaron Hernandez for a Touchdown with 11:20 to go in the 3rd Quarter for a 132 passer rating. Over the final 26 minutes, he was 7-18 for 72 yards and 1 interception, for a rating of just 28.

Perhaps, from the Patriots' perspective, the pivotal moment in their drive for a 4th Lombardi Trophy happened with 4 minutes to go last night. 2nd down and 11 yards to go from the Giants 44 yard line. Brady has Wes Welker in the left slot and he gets a clean release into the secondary. Welker, who has 442 catches since Super Bowl 42 (no one else has even 390), leapt at the 24 and twisted his body in the air as the ball was behind him. In the end both share blame, Brady should have made a better throw and Welker should have caught it as he had 2 hands on the ball. Instead of the ball down at the 20-yard line with the lead and the clock continuing to run, the Patriots would have to punt the ball back to the Giants with plenty of time to go.

And time is all that Eli Manning needs anymore. Three weeks ago, I filed my public apology to the man and yet I still thought that New England would figure out a way to defeat him on his quest for a place in history. And yet, there he was again, in the house his brother built, throwing darts and working his way to 296 yards, 0 interceptions, another late drive for a championship, and a Super Bowl MVP award. Again.

Now, instead of debates about his relative greatness in comparison with Tony Romo, he is being compared to his brother and Tom Brady. While many think that is ridiculous, the facts are that he has won 2 Super Bowls in which his team was almost never favored in any of the playoff games of those seasons. They always needed a late drive, and he seemed to always provide one. His throw and catch to Mario Manningham last night not the final drive may not knock David Tyree's catch from 2007 out of the historical archives, but it was as pretty a throw-and-catch at a clutch moment as you may ever see.

Then, on that final drive, the Giants never even needed a 3rd Down to march down the field for the winning score. The unintentional comedy happened with 1:00 to play and Ahmad Bradshaw trying to decide whether to fall at the 1-yard line or go untouched into the end zone. Oddly, he chose incorrectly and scored, thus giving Brady and his mates a chance to recover.

But, that is where the Giants defensive line took over the game. Brady was only sacked twice, but was under duress just about all afternoon. And what makes the Giants defensive front so admirable is that they are able to get to their coveted destination late in games, when productivity truly matters. No team in the league had more 4th Quarter sacks (22) than the Giants did this season, and #22 was a big one as Justin Tuck drove Brady into the turf on the final drive.

New England stayed alive long enough to have a desperation prayer almost answered in the end zone, but when the ball hit the turf, time was up and the New York Giants had won another Super Bowl. The Giants' 4th Lombardi Trophy ties them with Green Bay, and now trails just Pittsburgh (6), Dallas (5), and San Francisco (5).

Meanwhile, Eli Manning's 2nd Super Bowl victory puts him in rare company with the likes of John Elway and Roger Staubach (among others). A 2nd Lombardi is more than Steve Young, Brett Favre, and his brother Peyton Manning have ever won (Although Peyton may still have a chance). It is tough to fully measure his accomplishments, but those are some staggering facts.

It may not have been the most perfectly played Super Bowl, but it was surely one that did not lack drama. In the end, the NFC won its 3rd straight Super Bowl, and 4th of the last 5. And we are learning the lesson again that the best team at the beginning of February is not necessarily the best team from September to December.

And now, sadly, we will not see competitive NFL football again for 213 days. It will surely be missed.

Read More

Super Bowl 46 Prediction Time

It used to be cliche in this wonderful country of ours to work a nice punch-line in about the absurdly non-competitive Super Bowls that would occur year after year. No matter how close the match-up appeared on paper, for many years, the match-up on the field never lived up to the hype. Not even a little bit.

From Super Bowl 21 through Super Bowl 30 (representing the 1986-1995 seasons), the margin for victory of the Super Bowl was at an all-time high 19.9 points per game. Perhaps that has something to do with the age right before full-fledged free agency and salary caps. Perhaps it has more to do with some legendary teams in San Francisco and Dallas that may be unmatched in their talent and depth. But, for whatever reason, the Super Bowls back then were far more about commercials, half-time shows, and late night talk show monolouges using the final score for a laugh.

Even before that, the Super Bowl was not a place for great drama. The decade before that (Super Bowls 11-20) had a margin of 17 points per game, and the first decade of Super Bowls (1-10) gave us games with a 13 point per game difference. There was some theater along the way, but really, not too much in the big scheme of things.

But, along with the rest of professional football, this last decade has given us something that we have never seen before - consistently competitive and generally entertaining Super Bowls. From Super Bowl 36-45, we have had an average margin of victory at an all-time low of 8 points per game. In fact, aside from Super Bowl 37, when Rich Gannon threw 5 interceptions to the eager Tampa Bay defenders, the Super Bowl has had 9 games separated by just 59 points.

Of the 12 Super Bowls to be decided by less than a Touchdown, we have seen 6 of them in the last 10 years. This, like the low seeds advancing to the Super Bowl after not winning their own division in some cases is another characteristic of this age of professional football. It would seem to speak of the parity and perceived randomness of success, but then that would not properly credit the New England Patriots for what they have done in this decade.

They will be playing in their 5th Super Bowl in 11 years on Sunday, with a chance to win their 4th Super Bowl, which would tie them for 4th all-time with Green Bay, despite not having any Super Bowl victories before the year 2001. They will play in their 7th Super Bowl overall, now just trailing the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers for all-time appearances.

The Patriots are a testament to this age that excellence can still be discovered, but the theme of finding a franchise QB to lead you there is consistent with any age of football. Finding him in the 6th round is the exception, but his quality is at the top as Brady finds his way to his 5th Super Bowl with a chance to win his 4th, putting him in a neighborhood where only Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw have previously resided.

Meanwhile, the Giants perhaps are that poster-boy for this era. Win a Super Bowl in 2007 as a low seed that got on a roll, go dormant for 3 seasons without a single playoff victory, and then get on a roll with a low seed again in 2011 all the way to the Super Bowl. Somehow, in a year where they were swept by Washington, beaten at home by Seattle, and beaten at home by the Eagles with Vince Young for his only win of the season, they find themselves ready to win their 4th Super Bowl in franchise history - albeit in 4 different decades.

The Giants story, from their head coach to their quarterback appear to be a reminder that you can never be quick to judge a competitor at the highest level with a small sample size. Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning have a chance to be multiple-time Super Bowl winners, therefore giving them both a distinct copy point when their careers are measured for historical honors. Whether they pass the eyeball test in October or not is rendered rather irrelevant if they can win another Lombardi Trophy. Eli has already won more playoff road games than any QB in NFL History, so it is becoming increasingly difficult to not give him his due.

To add to the compelling nature of this contest, we have the boxing adage that "styles make fights". It seems that the Giants defense plays the proper style to uniquely give the Patriots offensive machine some discomfort. Whether we use their meeting in Super Bowl 42 or their meeting in Foxboro in November as a reference point, it seems clear that Brady was unable to find a real rhythm in either situation, thus keeping the game close throughout. Then, late in each game, Manning was able to put together high-impact drives to win both games in dramatic fashion. The Patriots are a team that finds its way into the 30s on the scoreboard routinely, and yet, in those two meetings against the Giants, they have not exceeded 20 points. Again, we must beware of the small sample size, but you can understand the reason for concern. Rob Gronkowski's ankle situation provides even more as the Giants have used a fair amount of bracket coverage on the tight ends to force Brady's throws to the outside of the field, and this should be made easier.

In looking at the contest from the other side, it is easy to be drawn to Vince Wilfork as a potential game breaker on the Patriots line. He destroyed a good portion of the Ravens' game plan in the AFC Championship Game, and with help from the rest of that line that varies from the 3-4 to the 4-3 from week to week, if they can make a real push and collapse the pocket around Eli, they should have a decent chance. But, the concern here would be knowing that the Giants have a QB-slot receiver combo in Manning and Victor Cruz that should force New England to dig deep down that defensive back depth chart and if Julian Edelman is trying to cover the slot again, Eli will play pitch and catch.

In the end, when forced to close my eyes and try to imagine how Super Bowl 46 plays out, I will play the percentages of turnovers deciding the outcome of this game. Many people forget, Asante Samuel dropped a rather easy Eli Manning interception with a bit over a minute to play in Super Bowl 42 that would have won the game for the Patriots. In some ways, it could remind someone of the 49ers dropped interception late in the NFC Championship Game 2 weeks ago. Like Brett Favre, Eli will throw a pass or two up for grabs and if you can pick it off, you will win. On the other hand, Brady has thrown 1 pick in 156 Super Bowl passes and therefore often doesn't flirt with disaster.

The team that wins the turnover battle in the Super Bowl is 33-4 with the only exceptions being Super Bowl 5, 14, 23, and 40. I think this will control the game and I trust Brady more.

So, expect it to be close and expect to be decided with a turnover in the 4th Quarter. High Drama in Super Bowl 46, with the prediction here of PATRIOTS 24, GIANTS 20.

Should be an outstanding way to finish another memorable season. And then I guess we have other sports to hold us over until we re-rack in August.

Read More