Mavericks vs Heat 6 /9/11 Game 5 ADS

Mavericks: 112
Heat: 103

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	11.2	10.2
	Mia	13.5	12.3
2nd	Dal	12.1	11.5
	Mia	13.4	12.2
3rd	Dal	16.7	16.7
	Mia	13.8	13
4th	Dal	11.4	9.1
	Mia	10.7	8.7
Total	Dal	13.1	11.9
	Mia	12.9	11.5

Side Notes

- Dirk had a game-high 29 points.

- LeBron ends the night with a triple double (17pts, 10 boards, 10 ast).

- Wade and James shot a combined 16.7% from 15ft plus.

Some key ADS notes/trends that Adam has noticed through out this series.

GM5 Make/Miss Series Make/Miss
Heat 8.8/17.5 10/15
James 5/16.5 8.9/16.4
Wade 7.8/14 7.3/13.9

Mavs 11.4/13.7 11.2/13.8
Nowitzki 10.4/16 11.8/12.9
Terry 17.5/21.5 14.9/17.7


Also, LeBron's struggles shooting are bad. If you ever wonder why is a low ADS so important for some players, look at Lebron:

GMs 3-5 Series
At the Rim 11/17 (64.7%) 18/26 (69.2%)
Beyond 3FT 6/27 (22.2%) 16/49 (32.7%)
Beyond 10FT 3/22 (13.6%) 12/42 (28.6%)
Beyond 16FT 2/19 (10.5%) 9/34 (26.5%)

Basically for the series LeBron's FG percentage is 45.3%....But really he is dunking at 69.2% and shooting just 29.6%.

Mavericks FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 6/11 15.4 15.4 Chandler 5/7 1.3 1.3 Kidd 4/6 17 17 Cardinal 1/1 25 25 Marion 4/11 6.3 6.3 Nowitzki 9/18 14.1 11.7 Stevenson 1/2 23 15.7 Terry 8/12 18.8 18.8 Mahinmi 1/1 1 1 Team Total 39/69 13.1 11.9

Heat FGM/A ADS ADS+ Anthony 1/1 5 5 Bibby 1/2 20.5 20.5 Bosh 6/12 11 8.5 Chalmers 3/5 24 24 Haslem 5/8 6 6 James 8/19 11.7 11.7 Miller 3/5 23 23 Wade 6/11 10.6 7.6 Howard 3/3 10.3 10.3 House 0/2 23.5 23.5 Team Total 37/68 12.9 11.5

ADS ADS+ Barea 12.6 12.1 Mahinmi 2 1.7 Chandler 1.8 1.5 Haywood 3 2 Kidd 20.8 20.2 Stojakovic 23.8 23.8 Marion 6.3 5.9 Terry 16.5 14.7 Nowitzki 12.5 11 Stevenson 24.1 21.9 Cardinal 24.5 24.5 Team Total 12.76 11.33 Opp. Total 12.79 11.61

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.

Thanks to Adam Rosen and Heath Huston for the data.

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Mavericks vs Heat 6/7/11 Game 4 ADS

Mavericks: 86
Heat: 83

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	12.6	11.9
	Mia	10.5	9.4
2nd	Dal	13.8	12.2
	Mia	11.8	11.8
3rd	Dal	8	6.7
	Mia	8.1	6.5
4th	Dal	11.6	10.1
	Mia	15.8	14.1
Total	Dal	11.6	10.2
	Mia	11.3	10.1

Side Notes
- Dirk scored 10 of his 21 points in the 4th.
- Chandler had 16 rebounds (9 being offensive).
- LeBron James had scored in double digits in 434 consecutive games.

Click here to read Bob's Morning After for Game 4.

Mavericks FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 3/9 9.3 9.3 Chandler 4/7 1.6 1.4 Kidd 0/3 23.7 23.7 Cardinal 0/1 24 24 Marion 7/12 5.8 5.4 Nowitzki 6/19 10.7 9 Stevenson 3/7 24 21.1 Terry 6/15 14.5 13.7 Team Total 73 11.6 10.2

Heat FGM/A ADS ADS+ Anthony 2/6 1.2 1.2 Bibby 0/1 24 24 Bosh 9/19 10.4 8.8 Chalmers 1/5 17.8 15 Haslem 2/5 15.8 15.8 James 3/11 13.4 12.3 Miller 2/8 19.8 19.8 Wade 13/20 7.1 6 Team Total 74 11.3 10.1

Series Total coming soon.

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen and Heath Huston for the data.

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Mavericks vs Heat 6/5/11 Game 3 ADS

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	15.3	13
	Mia	7.9	7.6
2nd	Dal	11.2	9.9
	Mia	13.7	12.4
3rd	Dal	15.5	14.6
	Mia	11	10.5
4th	Dal	15.9	15.2
	Mia	15.4	14.6
Total	Dal	14.3	13
	Mia	11.6	11

Side Notes
- Dirk had a game high 34 points.
- Since the NBA started the 2-3-2 format, the team that has won Game 3 went on to win the championship.
- Heat outscored Mavs 40 to 22 in the paint.
- Dirk scored 15 points in the fourth, including the last 12 for Dallas.

Mavericks FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 2/8 16.4 14.7 Chandler 1/4 1.5 1.3 Kidd 3/8 21 18.8 Mahinmi 0/1 3 3 Marion 4/12 9.4 8.8 Stojakovic 1/2 23 23 Nowitzki 11/21 14 13.4 Stevenson 1/1 26 26 Terry 5/13 16.7 14.6 Team Total 28/70 14.3 13

Heat FGM/A ADS ADS+ Anthony 1/4 3.3 3.3 Bibby 1/5 23 23 Bosh 7/18 9.6 8.7 Chalmers 3/7 20.6 20.6 Haslem 3/7 11.7 11.7 James 6/14 11.3 10 Miller 0/1 27 27 Wade 12/20 8.6 8.2 Team Total 34/76 11.6 11

ADS ADS+ Barea 12.5 11.6 Mahinmi 3 3 Chandler 2.1 1.7 Haywood 3 2 Kidd 21.4 20.6 Stojakovic 23.8 23.8 Marion 6.5 6 Terry 16.6 14 Nowitzki 12.7 11.5 Stevenson 24.4 24.4 Team Total 13.06 11.52 Opp. Total 13.24 12.16

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen and Heath Huston for the data.

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Mavericks v Heat 6/2/11 GM 2 ADS

Mavs: 95
Heat: 93

It took Dallas only 6 minutes to erase the barrage of dunk highlights that were cued up on ESPN to be followed by lots of "booyahs" and put this series at a 1-1 tie.

Against insurmountable odds, Dallas was able to sneak back into the game and the series while sifting through the complacent bombarding of Miami three pointers in the 4th quarter. Miami went 2 of 11 from beyond the arc and shot 11 of their 18 total shots from long distance in the 4th quarter, posting an ADS of 18.3.

Notable Make/Miss differentials for GM 2 and the series

(GM2 Make/Miss) (Series Make/Miss)
Heat: 11.2/18.1..............................12/15.5

James: 11.5/21.1.............................12.4/17.1
Wade: 5.8/21..................................8.5/16.1

Mavs: 10/13.5.............................11.1/13.3
Terry: 9.4/16..............................15.1/17.5
Barea: 4.5/12.8.............................3.7/12.2

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	12.9	11.3
	Mia	16.4	16.4
2nd	Dal	11.7	10.1
	Mia	14.1	12.7
3rd	Dal	10.5	9.1
	Mia	10.4	9.0
4th	Dal	12.2	11.7
	Mia	18.3	15.8
Total	Dal	11.9	10.6
	Mia	14.9	13.5

Side Notes
- Dwayne Wade had a game high 36 points from 13/20 shooting.
- Heat suffered their 1st loss at home in the 2011 playoffs.
- Dirk hit a layup with 0:03 left on the clock to give Mavs the lead
- Chris Bosh is now a combined 9/34 shooting for 26.5%

Click here to read Bob's Morning After for Game 2

Mavericks 5/31/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 2/7 14 12.4 Chandler 4/6 3.2 2.3 Haywood 1/2 4 4 Kidd 2/7 19.6 19.6 Marion 9/14 4.2 4.0 Stojakovic 0/0 - - Nowitzki 10/22 12.9 12.3 Stevenson 3/6 24 24 Terry 5/11 13 10.4 Team Total 36/75 11.9 10.6

Heat 5/31/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Anthony 0/0 - - Bosh 4/16 8.8 8.4 Chalmers 3/8 19.8 19.8 Haslem 1/3 16 16 Howard 0/0 - - Bibby 5/8 23.9 23.9 James 8/15 16 15.1 Miller 0/3 24.7 24.7 Wade 13/20 11.8 9.3 Team Total 34/73 14.9 13.5

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen for the data.

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Mavericks vs Heat 5/31/11 Game 1 ADS

Mavs: 84
Heat: 92

Unlike previous series we don't see a huge difference in the made/miss numbers. Here are some of the numbers. Oddly enough the closer JET got the more he missed doesn't help that he went 3-for-10. I know it's only one game but Dallas has to figure out a way to make James come out of his comfort zone. We worry about him driving the basket, but only 6 out of his 16 were below 10ft.

James: 13.22/13.14

Wade: 10.78/12.7

Nowitzki: 11.71/10.36

Terry: 24.67/18.87

A rare off night for the Dallas bench as they were out scored 27-17. The bench who has been a big story this postseason is going to have to step it up. As only time will tell how Dirk's injury effect his play, some weight falls on the shoulders of Terry and JJ to make noise. That being said Bibby and Anthony (both Heat starters) went for a combined 0-for-5 so its pretty clear on who the Mavs should be focusing on.

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	16.6	13.2
	Mia	14.3	13.1
2nd	Dal	12.5	11
	Mia	14.3	12.5
3rd	Dal	8.8	7.7
	Mia	12.9	11.8
4th	Dal	15.5	13.1
	Mia	11.5	10.5
Total	Dal	13	11.1
	Mia	13.3	12

Side Notes
- Heat had 16 offensive boards compared to Mavs 6.
- Heat are now 9-0 at home this playoffs.
- For the first time this playoffs Mavs trail in a series.
- Dirk had a game-high 27 points, going 12-12 at the line.

Click here to read Bob's Morning After for Game 1.

Mavericks 5/31/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 1/8 7.4 7.4 Chandler 3/4 1 1 Haywood 0/1 1 1 Kidd 3/8 23.5 23.5 Marion 6/12 6.2 5.4 Stojakovic 0/3 24.3 24.3 Nowitzki 7/18 10.9 8.7 Stevenson 2/3 24.7 24.7 Terry 3/10 20.5 17.3 Team Total 25/67 13 11.1

Heat 5/31/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Anthony 0/1 7 7 Bosh 5/18 7.9 6.2 Chalmers 3/7 23.4 20.6 Haslem 3/8 9.4 9.4 Howard 0/1 4 4 Bibby 0/4 24.8 24.8 James 9/16 13.2 13.2 Miller 2/5 24 24 Wade 9/19 11.8 10.8 Team Total 31/79 13.3 12

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen for the data.

Tim Krajewski

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ADS Finals Preview: Mavericks v Heat

Certain sports words and phrases can make the hair on the back of your neck stand straight up whether you're a fan or an athlete. The casual passing of these words can put a bad taste in your mouth that narrates the tormenting thoughts that have entered your mind.... Heat...2006... Finals...

Cringe...

Here are the Mavericks, in the midst of playoff run, down a trail littered with doubters and naysayers, one step away from their goal only to find Teddy "KGB" waiting for them once again.

It's not often in sports that a team or player gets their chance at a Mike McDermott moment, but the Dallas Mavericks have a shot at redemption that eerily parallels the tormented poker player's road to glory (at this point, if you haven't seen the movie Rounders, then you have no idea what I'm talking about. You should rent it and thank me later).

The Mavericks have battled their way back to the NBA Finals to find the Miami Heat waiting for them at the poker table once again. The stakes are even higher this time and the feeling of being truly "all in" resonates with Dirk and his teammates in Dallas.

Given the state of perception of LeBron's "Decision" and the way the three all stars stacked the deck to try to create a basketball monopoly, there could not be any better story line than having them pitted against the beloved hero who stayed home to finish what he started.

Both teams have been on a tear this post season trying taking care of business to reach their ultimate goals. Miami is now 8-0 in the playoffs on their home floor while Dallas is now 10-1 in the past month of playoff basketball winning their past 5 games on the road- something has to give.

Dallas took the regular season series 2-0 while posting an ADS/ADS+ of 13.1/11.8 against Miami in doing so. The Heat on the other hand managed a very ugly ADS/ADS+ of 16.4/14.7 against the Mavericks.

Most analyst will chalk up the Heats early struggles to lack of chemistry (which is plausible), but how about some credit to the make up of Dallas giving Miami trouble.

It should also be noted between the teams meetings on 11/27/10 and 12/20/10, Miami did not lose a game, going 12-0. After the Mavs beat them in the second meeting, ending Miami's 12 game winning streak, the Heat went on to post another 9 game winning streak. A team can't be playing that bad to combine for a 21-2 record during a 6 week stretch in the NBA.

There are things to breakdown from the early season series matchup as well as the 2011 playoff statistics. The Mavs and Heat are playing such high levels of basketball right now there is more to discuss than just Hollywood headlines.


Guards

Player	ADS+ (Heat)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	ADS+ (Season)	PPG (Heat)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Heat)	FG% (Playoffs)
Kidd	18.5	20.6	20.2	6	9.9	40%	36.1%
Terry	14.3	15.2	15.4	15.5	17.3	33.3%	47.1%
Marion	5.6	5.4	6.1	10.5	11.2	42.1%	46.1%
Player	ADS+ (Mavs)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	PPG (Mavs)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Mavs)	FG% (Playoffs)
Bibby	22	21.3	7	3.6	42.1	26.3
Wade	9.9	8.7	22	23.7	48.5	46
James	11.2	11.3	21	26	30.6	46.3

Last series Dallas had to slow down the all star combination of Durant/Westbrook, which they did quite well. Now they face another combo of All Stars, in James and Wade, who are unequivocally a more dynamic duo than the Thunder duo.

LeBron James has been the "chosen one" to lead the Miami Heat in the playoffs and has been torching his opponents while doing so. He has posted an ADS+ of 11.3 while shooting 46.3% from the field and averaging 26PPG. It will be a tough task for Dallas to slow down the King of South Beach in this series, though not impossible.

LeBron is capable of having an off night like he did in the regular season against the Mavs, combining for 31% shooting for only 21PPG. Once again, it should be taken with a grain of salt but don't completely dismiss what the Mavericks were able to do against LeBron.

During the playoffs LeBron has shown signs of an improved mid range jumper, but it can still act as his Achilles heal. His Made/Miss ADS is 10.6/14.9, a differential of over 4ft, will indicate the same thing for LeBron as it did Durant/Westbrook/Harden- make them shoot as far away as possible.

Just slowing him down would be great, but doing so will be a task of maximum effort. Should Dallas exhaust fouls and defense intensity trying to stop LeBron James or look at the other parts of 613 gang?

If you're going to have to pick your poison of the two, Dwayne Wade has been less effective as of late compared to LeBron. Not exactly the most encouraging thought for Dallas, since he was able to post an ADS+ of 9.9 and 22PPG while shooting almost 49% against them earlier this year.

In the Chicago series, Wade posted an ADS+ of 8.1, but only 19PPG and 40.5% shooting from the field. With the low ADS+, you would expect the PPG and FG% numbers to be a bit higher. For whatever reason the Bulls gave him trouble overall and Dallas is defensively built like the Bulls at this stage in the game. The one thing Chicago did not have was the offensive firepower to capitalize on a slow night from Dwayne Wade, something the Mavs have deep into their bench.

James and Wade combine for exactly 50% of the Heats FG-A's per game. It would be almost silly to think you could slow down or even stop both of them on any given night. If Dallas has to pick one, as of right now, it would have to be Wade.

LeBron's ADS/ADS+ in the Chicago series was 13.7/12.2 as compared to Wade's 9.1/8.1, 4.6ft further away per shot. Even with this being the case, LeBron has had a better FG%, PPG avg, and been able to get to the FT line at a higher rate.

Neither of them shot long range jumpers (16ft-23ft) extremely well in the Chicago series, though James (39%) was much more efficient than Wade (26%). Against Philly and Boston, Wade shot a combined 50% and James was about the same at 41%.

This deep into the playoffs he could be wearing down a little or maybe Chicago's defense was that good. Either way, he takes a beating all season long and has definitely put a lot of tough miles on his tires since the 2006 Finals. . It may sound asinine to think the Mavs could stop their tormentor from the 2006 Finals, but recent stats could be put into terms like this:

Would you kick a peg legged pirate in his good leg to make him fall down?


The three main contributors for Dallas will play a big role defensively for Dallas trying to slow down LeBron James and Dwayne Wade in this series. While Terry, Marion, and Kidd have managed to come up with timely steals and defensive efforts, their offensive contributions throughout the playoffs have paid dividends as well. The 2,3,4 scorers (respectively) in PPG behind Dirk have not failed to have their moments with a combined ADS+ of 13.3 throughout the playoffs.

Terry has been the main scoring threat next to Dirk for most of the regular season and playoffs. While the Mavs willl need Jason Terry waiting in the wings to connect on some three pointers, they will also need him to be creating shots close to the basket. The Mavericks are better when JET averaged an ADS+ under 14. Restating the Mavs records when this happens, they were 15-5 in the regular season (4 of those losses were when Dirk was injured) and 5-1 in the post season.

Terry will always be available for the timely three, but if he and Marion attack the paint it will help keep Miami's defense spread out and honest. This will in turn help our German stay ri-Dirk-ulously on fire in another playoff series.

This is a very easy matchup to analyze. Do not let LeBron and Dwayne Wade go off at the same time, attacking the rim, and getting easy baskets and FT opportunities. This is easier said than done, but it wont be something the Mavs are unable achieve if they continue their current brand of post season basketball.

Conclusion: Advantage Heat


Bigs

Player	ADS+ (Heat)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	ADS+ (Season)	PPG (Heat)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Heat)	FG% (Playoffs)
Nowitzki	14.3	10.8	13.1	24	28.4	38.6%	51.7%
Chandler	2.9	2.5	3	11	7.3	69.2%	57.6%
Player	ADS+ (Mavs)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	PPG (Mavs)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Mavs)	FG% (Playoffs)
Bosh	13.4	9.0	20.5	18.6	42.9%	50.3
Anthony	7.3	2.7	2.5	3.3	66%	40

It is hard to put into words how epically unbelievable Dirk has been playing in the playoffs. Any article or column describing his game should be replaced with a YouTube video because only the eyes could confirm its real.

Nowitzki finished off the Thunder with an ADS+ of 9.5 and 32.2 PPG while shooting nearly 56% and 97% from the FT line. He has become a malcontent and aggressor on offensive by refusing to settle long distance shots and creating FT opportunities.

To put it in perspective, last series against OKC, Dirk averaged 12.2 FT-A's per game doubling his season average of 6.1 FT-A's per game. When his regular season ADS/ADS+ of 14.3/13.1 is compared to his playoff ADS/ADS+ of 11.2/9.5, he is averaging over 3ft closer to the basket per shot in the post season.

The stats will back up the eyeball test telling you that Dirk Nowitzki is a man on a mission refusing to settle in this playoff run. Its easy to emphasize the importance of Dallas' MVP.

Chris Bosh had a remarkable turn around in the post season since he insinuated that the moment might be too big for him. Maybe he finally found a match up he liked against Carlos Boozer or maybe he figured out the big stage. Either way Chris Bosh is now a piece of the puzzle Dallas must figure out how to stop.

While his playoff ADS/ADS+ numbers are a nice 10.4/9.0 ratio, it is worth noting against Dallas this season his numbers were much higher sitting at an ADS/ADS+ of 14.9/13.4, around a 4.5ft difference. This is something numbers would indicate is not a coincidence or fluke given the amount of shots he took comapred to his counterparts (Bosh-35FGA, LeBron-36FGA, and Wade 33 FGA).

The matchup with Bosh is similar to the Mavs first round matchup with LaMarcus Aldridge, which is a good thing come playoff time. In the regular season Aldridge averaged 27.8PPG on 51.7% shooting against Dallas. However, the Dallas defense (mostly consisting of Chandler and Haywood) turned up the defense in the playoffs lowering Aldridge's numbers to 19.6PPG on 43.2% shooting in the series. Aldridge and Bosh are similar players and will probably be defended in a similar manner by Dallas.

Dallas, once again, will lean on its luxury of having two lengthy and quality 7 footers to slow down a mid range shooting power forward. Tyson Chandler should see majority of his defensive minutes trying to eliminate Bosh from the Miami equation. As big as an importance Chandler's defense is for Dallas, any offensive prowess from Tyson in the finals will go along way as well.

During the regular season against the Heat, Chandler had an ADS+ of 2.9 and 11PPG while shooting 69.2% from the field. If he can duplicate these contributions in the Finals, it would be such a sweet bonus for Dallas.

The Heat lack true depth at the Center position and any aggressiveness on Chandler's part could lead to foul trouble for Joel Anthony. Anthony is not any type of offensive threat, but he is a reliable defender and has averaged 2.1 blocks throughout the playoffs. Beyond him are players with skill sets Dallas would very much like to see in there defending the paint and the players who enter it. Anthony should be an after thought when game planning for Miami, but perhaps attacking him could be the first domino to fall.

Conclusion: Advantage Dallas


Bench

Player	ADS+ (Heat)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	ADS+ (Season)	PPG (Heat)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Heat)	FG% (Playoffs)
Barea	6.5	10.3	11.3	9.5	8.9	63.6%	43.6%
Haywood	0.0	1.9	2.6	4	3.4	100%	60.7%
Stevenson	23.1	19.6	20.2	5.5	3.5	36.3%	27.1%
Stojakovic	-	19.1	18.7	-	8.8	-	41.7%
Players	ADS+ (Mavs)	ADS+ (Playoffs)	PPG (Mavs)	PPG (Playoffs)	FG% (Mavs)	FG% (Playoffs)
Chalmers	19.7	17.5	10.5	6.1	35.7%	44.2
Haslem	-	10.6	-	3.8	-	32.1
Miller	25.3	18.4	0.0	2.2	0%	36.7

The Miami Heat bench is very thin, even with the recent inserting of Udonis Haslem back into the rotation. The combination of Chalmers and Miller are basically relegated to the 3pt line, with Chalmers having a little versatility but nothing too threatening. Combining for a mere 12.1 PPG throughout the playoffs, the Miami bench brings very little to the aid of their superstars.

The Dallas bench is the complete opposite in that aspect of the game. When your bench has a player your opposition is claiming to prepare for in a similar manner as they did a NBA MVP, you're in very good shape (even if that statement is an embellishment).

JJ Barea provides a jolt for Dallas at times when they need it most. Barea has posted an ADS+ of 10.3 and 8.9PPG in a variety of ways including knocking down 3's, driving to the hoop, and getting opportunities at the FT line. He has averaged just over 11PPG the last two series for Dallas and they will need him to duplicate that in the finals.

Peja Stojakovic did not have a good series against the Thunder and the Mavericks will need the Serbian sniper to snap out of his current "slump". If he gets hot like he did in the Lakers series, then great things happen for the Mavericks. Peja will continue to get a lot of looks from 3pt land when defenses converge in the paint. If he is draining his shots that will create one huge headache for Miami not even a Bloody Mary could cure.

Conclusion:Advantage Dallas


Overall team ADS/ADS+ numbers for the playoffs show the Mavericks will shoot a little further away than the Heat. However, the Heat's opponents tend to shoot a little closer than the Mav's throughout the playoffs thus far:

Playoffs

Mavs ADS/ADS+: 13.2/12.1 Opponents: 12.5/11.4

Heat ADS/ADS+: 12.9/11.4 Opponents: 12.2/11.3

The Heat's trio of James, Wade, and Bosh combine for nearly 70% of the Heat's FG-A's per game, nearly 16% more than the Mavericks top 3 in FG-A's per game. The Heat trio also combined for an ADS/ADS+ of 11.3/9.8 for the entire playoffs while shooting 47% from the field.

Dallas will not be able to shut down all three of the guys on any given night unless they play with 9 men on the floor, which is against the rules. The key to success is going to be to try to completely take one of them out of the game. Given the matchups and weapons that Dallas has available to utilize, Chris Bosh will probably be the best bet in that aspect. In games he had 25+ points, Miami was 10-2 on the season.

Dallas must also try to keep pace in the FT-A department. Free Throws are free points for Dallas and the way LeBron and Wade attack the rim will almost ensure Miami will have a plethora of them. A free throw is typically the highest percentage shot on the floor for most players, even compared to a dunk or layup. More FT's mean a lower ADS+ and a lower ADS+ usually spells success for Dallas.

Dallas does not have any shortage of offensive weapons either. Terry, Marion, Kidd, Chandler, Barea, and Stojakovic can all take over at any point or stretch in the game. We've seen them do it constantly this postseason With the determination the Mavericks have embodied, there is little reason to believe the trend doesn't continue.

And If Dirk continues his practically robotic terminator style of cold blooded dominance over his opponent, Dallas could easily be heading for storied ending that began with a tatoo of confidence back in October.

Teddy "KGB" is defeated.

Except this ending would be David Stern handing the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy to Dirk and uttering one relieving phrase -"Take Dat Wit Chew."


Posted By: Adam Rosen


Thanks to Heath Huston, Tim Krajewski, and Ted Miles for help with the data.

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.

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Mavericks vs Thunder 5/25/11 Game 5 ADS

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	10.8	10.4
	Okc	10.1	9.4
2nd	Dal	9.8	8.6
	Okc	12.8	11.3
3rd	Dal	15.6	12.7
	Okc	13	11.4
4th	Dal	7.3	6.7
	Okc	11.8	10.8
Total	Dal	10.7	9.6
	Okc	11.8	10.7

Side Notes
- OKC turned the ball over 7 times in the 4th, more than they had the first three quarters.
- Dirk just 96.7% from the free-throw line in the series (59-61)
- Durant and Westbrook combined for a total of 54 points, the rest of the starters had a combine total of 2.
- Dirk and Terry are the only remaining players from the '06 team that could have a rematch versus Miami.

Click here to read Bob's Morning After for Game 5. Because thats what friends do.

Mavericks 5/25/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 5/11 8.4 8.4 Chandler 3/7 6.1 5.5 Haywood 1/1 1 1 Kidd 1/7 12.1 12.1 Marion 10/17 5.8 5.3 Stojakovic 1/4 25 25 Nowitzki 8/15 9.6 8.6 Stevenson 0/7 18 15.9 Terry 3/9 15.9 14.4 Team Total 32/78 10.7 9.6

Thunder 5/25/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Perkins 0/2 9.5 9.5 Collison 6/9 4.4 4.4 Durant 8/20 13.8 12.6 Harden 7/11 13.7 10.3 Ibaka 1/6 12.5 12.5 Maynor 2/6 15.7 15.7 Westbrook 11/28 11.3 10 Team Total 35/82 11.8 10.7

ADS ADS+ Barea 10.7 10.5 Brewer 4.5 4.5 Chandler 3.1 2.6 Haywood 3.3 2.4 Kidd 18.6 18.2 Stojakovic 19.1 19.1 Marion 4.5 4.2 Terry 15.4 14.6 Nowitzki 11.2 9.5 Stevenson 19.2 19.2 Team Total 11.98 10.89 Opp. Total 11.56 10.29

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen for the data. Check back to read his ADS preview for the next round.

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Dirk for Conn Smythe Trophy

Dirk Nowitzki has been dazzling in these playoffs in so many ways. Many of us would suggest that this is the best version of Nowitzki that many of us have ever seen, and that says something pretty substantial.

We often talk about how playoff basketball is different than the regular season, but what does that mean? Well, it means about 1,000 different things, but for a great scorer, it could mean that in games of great importance - against defenders who are far more determined and prepared (imagine the amount of preparation that goes into defending Dirk over a 7-game series versus a Tuesday in February) to deal with you.

Also, will that great scorer be even more determined and possessed to get better and better shots. To draw contact and get fouled and to make sure that the defenders are not dictating his game - rather, he is.

Dirk, in the 2011 Playoffs, has been a very determined scorer who at many different times, would not be denied.

In the regular season, for comparison's sake, Dirk took 1,179 shots in 73 games. This averaged out to 16.2 FGA per game and 6.1 FTA per game. Below, is his ADS and ADS+ (Average Distance Per Shot and Average Distance Per Shot weighted with Shooting Fouls):

Game	ADS	ADS+
Reg Season	14.3	13.1

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That shows the average Dirk shot has been from 14+ feet away from the basket. He is an amazing shooter, so obviously this is not a bad thing, but almost 1200 shots and he was over 14 feet away.

In the playoffs, he has taken 256 shots in 14 games. This averages out to 18.3 FGA per game and 9.4 FTA per game. In those game, his ADS has dropped through the floor down to 11.5 and his ADS+ is under 10 at 9.7 per attempt in the Western Finals.

Game	ADS	ADS+
Playoffs	12.3	10.9

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The numbers prove that even Dirk knows. A closer shot is always better. And drawing fouls is the best scenario for a number of reasons. 2 feet per shot over that big of a sample size is substantial. Here are the ADS numbers for each game so far in the playoffs:

Game	ADS	ADS+
G1-Port	11.5	9.4
G2-Port	11.5	9.3
G3-Port	13.2	14.7
G4-Port	14.7	13.9
G5-Port	9.1	7.6
G6-Port	12.1	12.1
Series Total	12	10.6

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The Portland series showed us that Dirk was not going to settle. In Game 5 in particular, he was not going to allow Portland to push him out to the perimeter after a Game 4 where he was dagger hunting from behind the stripe and it bit the entire team. His Game 6 was also fabulous by ADS standards. A very good start.

Game	ADS	ADS+
G1-LA	12.9	12.3
G2-LA	14.7	13.9
G3-LA	15.7	15
G4-LA	11.4	11.4
Series Total	13.8	13.2

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The Lakers had the defenders to deal with Dirk in the post over the course of the game. But, at crunch time, he still did some very heavy lifting although his averages are much higher in this series. I think you would look at the higher numbers in the Lakers series (although still lower than his regular season numbers) as "fishing where the fish are". He knew what the Lakers could handle and what they had no answer for and adjusted accordingly.

Game	ADS	ADS+
G1-OKC	12.3	8.7
G2-OKC	6.8	5.7
G3-OKC	14.1	14.1
G4-OKC	12.3	10.4
Series Total	11.5	9.7

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Then, in this Oklahoma City Western Conference Final, we are seeing some of his best work yet. His Game 2 - which some suggest he waited too long to take over - was unreal from an ADS standpoint because when he went to work in the 4th Quarter, it all ended up near the rim. Nick Collison does offer some resistance, but we see here that the Thunder do concede Dirk's ability to get shots wherever he wishes on the court. There are different levels of "unguardable" and with the Thunder, we have seen Dirk in the baseline post, high post, wing, and various other spots to counter what Scotty Brooks and the Thunder are trying to throw at him.

We can debate what the ADS numbers actually tell us when we compare team versus team and player versus player. There are certainly a number of variables that cannot be accounted for as is the case with almost all of the statistics in sports. But, I don't think there is much dispute that when used to compare a player against himself, it has very practical measurements about what kind of shot a player is capable of getting and what kind of shot he is getting today.

Dirk, who took 14 footers all season, is getting a full 2-feet closer on each shot in the playoffs. That is not a number that should be ignored.

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Mavericks vs Thunder 5/23/11 Game 4 ADS

Mavericks: 112
Thunder: 105

Well, if you had to pick a single game to make a case that the last five minutes are the only thing that matters in an NBA game. Last night was that game. Though I would make tell you that last nights game was worthy of your full attention, you really got a 2 for 1 if you did watch it all. At the start you had the young speed and talent of OKC and the age creep up on the Mavs that everyone has been so worried about. Then in the fourth you could make an argument that it was either veteran leadership of Dallas that won it or the inexperience of the Thunder that lost it. OKC's ADS nearly doubled as we take a look at the game break down.

Mavs OT: ADS......17.1

ADS+....15.1

Thunder OT: ADS.....20

ADS+...20

		ADS	ADS+
1st	Dal	11.4	10.3
	Okc	7.2	7
2nd	Dal	8.3	6.7
	Okc	7.1	6.9
3rd	Dal	12.9	12.4
	Okc	10	7.6
4th	Dal	12.1	11.5
	Okc	14.2	13.6
Total	Dal	12	10.8
	Okc	10.4	9.7

I know we all love numbers, so thanks once again to Adam's hard work we have a new aspect that ADS allows to to view. We keep preaching that the lower the ADS the better, well obviously that isn't always the case because if Stojakovic is making it rain you don't want to fix whats not broke. But if Durant wants to keep jacking up threes in the fourth after giving up a 15 point lead he may want to think about whats been working for him. Here is a breakdown of Durant, Westbrook and Nowitzki's ADS of made and misses.

GM 4 Make/Miss ADS
Durant-9.2/17.7
Westbrook- 6.0/12.7

Durant: At the rim- 4/6 .........3-9ft- 2/7..............10-15ft- 1/4................16-23ft- 0/3........3's- 2/7

Westbrook: At the rim- 4/6......3-9ft- 3/6............10-15ft- 0/2...............16-23ft- 0/5.........3's- 0/3

From beyond 3ft, Durant went 5/21 and Westbrook went 3/16 and didn't make a shot past 10ft (0/10)


Series Make/Miss ADS
Durant- 11.6/17.7
Westbrook- 9.4/10.9

Durant: At the rim- 11/16.........3-9ft- 5/8..............10-15ft- 9/17................16-23ft- 8/19........3's- 4/25

Westbrook: At the rim- 12/24......3-9ft- 4/14............10-15ft- 1/7...............16-23ft- 6/20.........3's- 2/7

From beyond 3ft, Durant is 26/69 (37.7%) and Westbrook is 13/48 (27.1%) for the series.

Just for comparison here are Dirk's series totals

Series Make/Miss ADS- 11.9/12.7

Nowitzki: At the rim- 10/15........3-9ft- 6/10..............10-15ft- 13/22................16-23ft- 9/17........3's- 3/9

From beyond 3ft, Dirk is 31/58 (53.4%)

Click here to read Bob's Morning After for Game 4. Because if you don't, the Communist win.

Mavericks 5/23/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Barea 3/9 8.7 8.7 Chandler 2/4 1 1 Haywood 2/2 0.5 0.8 Kidd 5/9 18.4 18.4 Marion 1/5 3 2.4 Stojakovic 2/7 12.6 12.6 Nowitzki 12/20 12.3 10.4 Stevenson 1/4 18 18 Terry 7/19 14.5 14.5 Team Total 35/81 12 10.8

Thunder 5/23/11 FGM/A ADS ADS+ Perkins 3/5 1.8 1.8 Collison 5/7 3.7 3.4 Durant 9/22 14.2 13.7 Harden 3/5 4.6 4 Ibaka 8/15 10.7 10.1 Maynor 1/4 11 11 Sefolosha 6/10 12.7 12.7 Westbrook 7/22 10.5 9.4 Team Total 42/90 10.4 9.7

ADS ADS+ Barea 11.5 11.2 Brewer 4.5 4.5 Chandler 1.9 1.7 Haywood 3.6 2.8 Kidd 20.1 19.5 Stojakovic 18.3 18.3 Marion 4 3.8 Terry 15.4 14.6 Nowitzki 11.5 9.7 Stevenson 19.7 19.7 Team Total 12.31 11.23 Opp. Total 11.49 10.18

What is ADS? Read the FAQ and find out.
Thanks to Adam Rosen and Heath Huston for the data.

Tim Krajewski

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