Cowboy 2012 - The Offense That Needed To Change

I was asked by one of you to review the final results of Decoding Garrett 2012.  For those new to this space, you may be interested in knowing that since 2008, we have catalogued each offensive snap of the Cowboys from a standpoint of personnel group and then what type of play it was (run or pass).  This helps us track the progress of the offense in greater detail than your average analysis piece, but more importantly, it helps us compare apples to apples when looking at how the team is doing offensively.

Given that play calling has been delegated to Bill Callahan in 2013, we do have the opportunity to re-name this study, but I do think since Garrett is still the mastermind behind the offense and the man sitting at the head of the table when game plans are designed, we likely will keep it just the same.

For those who are new, the reason we look at the offense from a personnel grouping point of view, is that it replicates the actual discussions that the coaches actually have - rather than this fantasy football viewpoint that many fans obsess over this time of year.  If you play fantasy football, that is all fine - millions do, but it has very little use from a "real football" standpoint.

Teams do not care about personal statistics and they understand how a player drawing coverage is just as valuable to the big picture as his teammate who is making all of the catches as a direct beneficiary of the player who is drawing the coverage.  Dez Bryant, in other words, can really help the team with a 2-catch performance, but his fantasy owners will be angry.  Here, in this space, we don't care at all about fantasy football implications.  There are plenty of places on the internet for you to get that information and analysis.

Here, we are attempting to see what the real performances mean, what Jason Witten's coverage means to Bryant, what play-action passing does to the safeties, and what a real running game could do to the linebackers in helping free up the shallow routes.  

It also keeps us from getting caught up in the raw numbers of statistics and how misleading the Cowboys yardage totals were in 2012 and how meaningless they truly were in terms of the win-loss totals.

Garrett cannot believe that his offense was one of the more productive offenses in the NFL.  There is simply no way he believes that. 

Incidentally, the 376 points they scored in 2012 ranks them 10th in the NFC out of 16 teams.  That is 1 point better than the Bears, 4 points better than the Lions.  And exceedingly more productive than the Panthers, Rams, Eagles, or Cardinals.  So there is that. 

They were 6th in the entire NFL in yardage, but I think most of us watched enough Cowboys football this year to see that much of that came during abnormally long stretches of "garbage time" football that the Cowboys offered in a number of home blowout losses.

Regardless of the results of 2012 and the reasons the Cowboys compiled impressive and hollow production numbers, the point is that they did move the ball with the effectiveness of a playoff team, and yet missed the playoffs.  Most times and in most places, it then is time to blame the defense.  Not here.  We remained steadfast in the idea that the Cowboys offense - with very acceptable levels of health all season - was as frustrating and ineffective as it has been under Garrett.

They had garbage time yards and that was pretty much the sum total of the year.  More from what we wrote in February:

 overall, with roughly 3 games where you say the offense did what it needed to do (at NY, at Balt, and Pittsburgh) and 13 other games where the offense needed to show more than what it did to get good grades, I have very little use for hearing where it ranked in yards and points.  Granted, in some of those 13, the Cowboys showed great grit and determination, but nobody would confuse will with a fantastic offensive performance.  And least they shouldn't.  

This offense was almost completely spared of injuries (comparatively speaking) and yet did not live up to the resources invested in it by any stretch of the imagination.  Looking at boxscores and totaling numbers is fun, but meaningless if you are constantly falling behind and then facing prevents to catch up.  Those numbers don't matter at all. 

I appreciate the man defending his performance and thereby, his job security, but I found his optimistic appraisal of 2012 and the offense's performance to be misleading and I bet he would agree once he dug a little deeper - which I know he has in private.

Below are the final numbers from a standpoint of production per personnel grouping.  I assume everyone is up to speed on the definition of each of the groups, but if you are not, please click on this link and read up.

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass
11	72	359	48-233	24-126
12	143	767	65-251	78-516
13	27	125	19-84	8-41
21	121	820	66-286	55-534
22	73	272	58-165	15-107
23	35	57	31-53	4-4
S01	28	159	0-0	28-159
S10	1	0	0-0	1-10
S11	479	3141	46-188	433-2953
S12	42	255	1--1	41-256
Totals	1029	5967	335-1256	694-4731

Granted, that is a lot of numbers.  And without explanation, it can certainly be confusing.  So, just direct your attention to "S11" which is their default setting for the 2-minute drill, 3rd Down offense, and of course, the "we are way behind and need to pass every down to have any chance" offense.  And, as you can see, that was nearly half of their snaps and over half of their production from last year.  

And that is very bad.

We elaborated on the evils of S11 in this study which looked at 6 years of the Garrett offense from back in the spring.

Now, let's look at the same chart from above, except below, we will show you the yards per play in each category to show the production levels for each situation.

Package	Plays	Yards	Run - Avg	Pass - Avg
11	72	359	48 - 4.85	24 - 5.25
12	143	767	65 - 3.86	78 - 6.62
13	27	125	19 - 4.42	8 - 5.13
21	121	820	66 - 4.33	55 - 9.71
22	73	272	58 - 2.84	15 - 7.13
23	35	57	31 - 1.71	4 - 1.00
S01	28	159	0 - 0.00	28 - 5.68
S10	1	0	0 - 0.00	1 - 10.00
S11	479	3141	46 - 4.09	433 - 6.82
S12	42	255	1 - -1.00	41 - 6.24
Totals	1029	5967	335 - 3.75	694 - 6.82

"Now this shows the performances with a bit better clarity. If you look at the running averages in the "21", "22", and "23" packages, where the Cowboys ran 155 runs for only 504 yards for only 3.25 yards per run, you now see why they don't have use for a fullback anymore. They were awful running with a fullback. Not saying it is all Lawrence Vickers fault, but rather that defenses would stack the line when Vickers was in the game and the Cowboys OL had no answer for the physical run defenses."

They also spent very little time in an "under center" offense, which then prevents from ever using play action passing or a balanced offense at all.

So, there is a review of the 2012 offense.  Don't be fooled by the rankings or the yardages or the fantasy football points.  This offense was very poor and needs to get better.

They know this and now look forward to their all new and hopefully improved look in 2013.

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Garrett Overview - 6 Years of Data

I have been meaning to write something in follow up to the Garrett story I issued last week about the relative merits of the "Jason Garrett offense" and I thought today was as good as any.  In fact, I would like to combine it with the requests of tweets like this one:  

any chance of that decoding Garrett over his whole time in Dallas being on the way?

I think that this is an excellent idea, but understand in doing so, we have to actually have a plan going in that will help us not cause an avalanche of numbers that signify nothing.

That aforementioned story from last week focused on the premise that although Jason Garrett's claims are technically correct - that Dallas was amongst the league leaders in offense in 2012 - the data does not provide the necessary context that would reflect my view - that Dallas' offense was both unreliable and frankly, at times disastrous for a team with post-season ambitions.

How can it be both?  Can an offense be productive relative to the rest of the league and still not be practically effective in relation to its own goal of winning 10 games and being in the tournament at year's end?

I say, yes.  And I bet Jason Garrett would, too, if he wasn't feeling like he had to defend himself to a mob of reporters who might vote him out of office if they had the power to do so.

2012 was the 6th year of the "Jason Garrett offense".  Unfortunately, my database of logging every single offensive snap by personnel grouping and formation only dates back to 2008, and I am not sure I have the time or resources to ever log the entire 2007 season (if you are interested, be my guest).

However, the raw data on a year-by-year basis looks like this:

Year	Total Yds - YPA	Rush Att-Yards YPA	Pass Att-Yards YPA
2007	5851  -  6.00	419-1746  -  4.16	556-4105  -  7.38
2008	5512  -  5.63	400-1723  -  4.30	579-3789  -  6.54
2009	6313  -  6.24	417-2081  -  4.99	579-4232  -  7.31
2010	5819  -  5.67	417-1761  -  4.22	610-4057  -  6.65
2011	6011  -  5.97	395-1853  -  4.69	612-4158  -  6.79
2012	5967  -  5.80	335-1256  -  3.75	694-4731  -  6.82

OK, that is already a lot of data to consider and I realize that I have to be careful not to lose the largest part of the audience here, but look at two things in particular above.

First, look at the raw numbers for both rush attempts and pass attempts for each year.  It went from 43%/57% run/pass balance in 2007 to 32%/68% in 2012.  That is going from a pass-heavy offense to a nearly pass-exclusive offense in a rather gradual fashion over 6 years.

Next, look at the yards per attempt in the passing game.  To compare the 2007 Cowboys to the 2012 Cowboys is not a fair comparison because there are certainly 100 variables that must be considered, but the biggest one that jumps out at you is that the 2012 pass-happy offense found 626 more yards of passing offense than the 2007 version, yet needed 138 more passes to do so.  Basically, they needed almost 5 games worth of passes to get 600 yards.  So, they pass way more, they just don't accomplish much more.

And yet, the 2012 version can claim that they actually out-gained the 2007 version.  Which offense would you want?

Now, back to the running game.  Below is a sheet from the good folks at Stats.  They have an amazing ability to sort things any way you like, so I thought it would be important to demonstrate how little Jason Garrett offenses run the football.  So, I asked them to sort the rushing attack of the 53 Dallas Cowboys teams since the team became a franchise in 1960.

Here is what they found:

It demonstrates that the 2012 Cowboys had the 52nd best season in Cowboys history in running the football.  Technically, they had the worst rushing season in Cowboys history on a per-game basis, but the 1960 Cowboys finish last due to a 12 game season.  Had they 16 weeks, we are reasonably sure that the '60 Cowboys might have been able to find 217 more yards on the ground.

Think about that.  Of all of the Cowboys teams ever, you might have just witnessed the single worst year of rushing the ball.  Brutal on every level.

In fact, if you wish, the Cowboys seasons of running the football with Jason Garrett as the offensive architect rank 52nd, 35th, 37th, 20th, 42nd, and 40th in Cowboys history.  That's right.  His best season is only 20th best in the history of the franchise.  And before you tell me it is because the league has changed to a passing league, explain this:  The New England Patriots (perhaps the most pass-first team in the NFL, right?) have run the ball 398 more times than the Cowboys in the Garrett-era.  And as you can see, 398 represents an entire season of Garrett rushing attempts.  I will repeat: the Patriots have run an entire year's worth of rushing plays more than Garrett in 6 seasons.

=====

I had some people take issue with my blog post from last week as they claimed that yardage can be ranked free of context because the Cowboys were still in many of those games that I called garbage time.  I cited the Cowboys continuous scrapping of their game-plan in many games and resorting to an elongated 2-minute drill that employed a personnel grouping that is pass-exclusive and plays against defenses that had 20+ point leads that were certainly off and soft and willing to concede yardage in exchange for time on the clock elapsing.

I will concede that it is difficult to define "garbage time" sometimes.  Was it garbage time when the Cowboys were down 23-0 to the Giants at halftime?  Or, 28-3 to the Redskins at the half on Thanksgiving?  And if so, didn't the Cowboys almost win the Giants game and at least make the Redskins sweat a bit?

I would say that arguing this, though, is missing the point of trying to identify the Cowboys offensive ability in 2012.

My point, would be this:  In 2012, the Cowboys' would spend all week designing a game plan that they thought would best work against their opponents.  Then, at game-time, they would find that their game plan was completely ineffective and scrap it.  This would happen at halftime sometimes, 3rd Quarter other times, and even sometimes well before halftime.  When they would scrap their game plan (a balanced attack with multiple personnel groupings and formations) and go exclusively to a 2-minute drill offense that was 100% shotgun and 100% 11 personnel, they would then find the ability to get yards and ultimately, points.

The score in the game here is interesting, but not the trigger.  The trigger is that moment when Garrett and/or Romo says to the other, "this isn't working.  Let's do what we know works."

And that happened over and over and over in 2012.  Especially at home.  The following is a look at the amount of time the Cowboys had the ball with the lead in their 8 home games.  The information is accurate and impossible to believe.

Opponent	Time with the lead
Tampa Bay	17:58
Chicago	0:00
New York	1:08
Cleveland	1:16
Washington	3:46
Philadelphia	1:52
Pittsburgh	10:36
New Orleans	0:00
Total	36:36

That is right.  36 minutes and 36 seconds the entire year.  This is a team that fell behind early almost every single home game.  Why?  Because their game-plan week after week was not working.

Why?  I could offer 100 ideas.  But, the point is, they weren't working.  And, from there, when Romo and Garrett would take it and throw it in the trash, that is when the Cowboys were able to turn these games into competitive contests by going back to Shotgun-11 personnel.  Then, and only then, was this offense able to get anything done.  

Under center?  Rushing the ball?  Declaring run and getting a tough yard?  Under center and run play action and hit one over the top?  In all of these scenarios, 2012 was about as bad a year as Garrett has on record.


Let me now show you how much they used their 2-minute/3rd Down offense in comparison to other seasons under Garrett to prove that it was pretty much their identity in 2012.

Year	Total Plays-Yards	Shotgun-11 Plays-Yards	% of Off Plays in S11 - Yds
2008	979 - 5512	385 - 2594	39% - 47%
2009	1011 - 6313	293 - 2038	29% - 32%
2010	1027 - 5819	369 - 2521	36% - 43%
2011	1007 - 6011	303 - 1733	30% - 29%
2012	1029 - 5967	479 - 3141	47% - 53%

If that doesn't prove it, I don't know what would.   Admittedly, I am only providing data here and not solutions.  But, look at that data.  This year, the Cowboys found 47% of their snaps and 53% of their yards from just scrapping their plans and running the same 8 plays over and over again from their 2-minute/3rd Down offense.  

This leads to bigger issues - such as being one of the easiest teams in the league to game plan against and also putting all of your success on your QB.  So much for "Romo-Friendly".  Now, it is "Romo only" and one of those years where you wonder what might have happened if he got hurt.

But, think about what this says.  This says that all of that film breakdown and game planning all week was largely an exercise in futility.  They keep coming back to the only thing they could do.

How do you fix it?  It starts with fixing your offensive line so that you can actually depend on them for something once in a while.  

But, we will continue to visit about that as we go.  I just wanted to demonstrate a clear explanation on how yards do not tell the story.  One team can gain 5,800 yards in a traditional way with a balanced and unpredictable offense and be efficient and effective.  Another can gain 5,900 yards and be inefficient and predictable while being way out of balance.  

Both will be amongst the league leaders in production and yet we will know better if we were watching carefully and not just believing what we are told.  

The Cowboys simply must get back to an offense where they are using S11 as the frosting on their cake.  But, in 2012, they were trying to get by on eating just frosting with no cake at all.

And it gave everyone indigestion.  

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Garrett Knows Better

"Again, we finished among the league leaders in offense this past year" - Jason Garrett  2/13/13

He really said that on Wednesday at Valley Ranch during a long press conference that was supposed to provide answers on topics such as play calling for 2013.  He is a bit defensive these days, as is understandable for anyone being asked to explain their job performance.  But, he cannot believe that his offense was one of the more productive offenses in the NFL.  There is simply no way he believes that.

Incidentally, the 376 points they scored in 2012 ranks them 10th in the NFC out of 16 teams.  That is 1 point better than the Bears, 4 points better than the Lions.  And exceedingly more productive than the Panthers, Rams, Eagles, or Cardinals.  So there is that.

They were 6th in the entire NFL in yardage, but I think most of us watched enough Cowboys football this year to see that much of that came during abnormally long stretches of "garbage time" football that the Cowboys offered in a number of home blowout losses.

There is no proof that a new play caller would do a better job.  But, there is proof that the offense under-performed badly in a year where Phil Costa was the biggest major injury they suffered if you accept DeMarco Murray's stretch of missed action a typical situation for a RB in the NFL.

And to help everyone (including the coach's memory), here is a game-by-game offensive summary:

Week 1: At New York.  Nobody would question both the balance and the production of the offense.  Fantastic work in New York that passed all tests of productivity and execution both on the ground and through the air.  441 yards and 24 points.  In a dogfight where the offense never betrayed once.  Very high marks.

Week 2: As good as everything went in New York, it crashed quickly to earth in Seattle.  The offense could not move the ball very well and it was plagued by negative runs and pass protection issues, as well as an extremely high number of drops by receivers.

Week 3: One of the worst rushing performances we can ever remember against Tampa Bay.  Negative runs all over the place and barely 300 yards of offense.  Brutal and it provided huge questions about the ability of the offensive line to keep Romo out of the hospital.

Week 4: Fell behind 24-7 to the Bears on their home field.  Turned the ball over again and again (Romo 5 interceptions) and never came close to running the football with any success again as DeMarco Murray continuously ran into offensive linemen who were pushed back into their face.  Cosmetically, the final statistics showed a very productive outing with huge points coming late in the game during garbage time.  But a giant disappointment and 400 yards doesn't mean anything.

Week 5: At Baltimore, this was a game that we will have a difficult time fully explaining as the offense suddenly fixed everything and ran and passed the ball with great success.  The Ravens did not have Terrell Suggs, but otherwise, it was the Super Bowl champion defense and the Cowboys rolled up over 225 yards on the ground and 483 yards overall.  A missed FG cost them the game, but the offense did very well.

Week 6: At Carolina, and as awesome as the offense appeared in Baltimore in a loss, the offense regressed dramatically to another sub-300 yard day in Carolina in a win.  This was the first game without Murray at RB, and the Cowboys had to sweat it out the entire day due to a very poor job in the red zone finding the end zone.  This was a rather consistent theme throughout the year from the offense.

Week 7:  Home game against the Giants, perhaps this is the best example of how stats are for losers.   They fell behind 23-0 at the half and scrapped their entire game plan again (see: Chicago) and decided just to have Tony Romo run the hurry-up Shotgun 11 personnel package the rest of the way.  Romo threw 4 more picks, but kept the team alive until the final seconds of the game as Dez Bryant's finger tips betrayed them.  17 carries for 19 yards showed that this offense cannot run the ball when it wants to.

Week 8: Again, checking the box-score in the game against Atlanta, you would see another case of strong yardage between the 20 yard lines, but anyone who watched will recall an offense that could not accomplish anything until late in the game when they again, down 16-6, decided to try their hurry-up shotgun attack and scrap their gameplan.  Here, they found a late 78 yard Touchdown drive and another 59 yards on the last 2 desperation plays that only helped the yardage totals.  0-2 again in the red zone and another disappointing week that seemed intent on protecting Romo rather than attacking.

Week 9:  At Philadelphia was yet another sub-300 yard day for the offense.  Despite that, they scored 38 points because Dwayne Harris, Brandon Carr, and Jason Hatcher all scored 4th Quarter touchdowns while the offense looked on.  The offense did put a drive or two together, but one does wonder how the offense was going to allow Romo to accomplish anything against the Eagles pass rush in the 2nd half as it stood when the long punt return changed everything early in the 4th.

Week 10: Home game against Cleveland where again Romo is battered and bruised.  So much so that again they simply scrapped their designed offense and had Romo run the 2-minute drill for the entire game snapping 52 plays out of shotgun.  7 sacks allowed to the Browns and barely 250 yards of offense when regulation ended.  They did get the win, but as was the theme for most of the year, the offense just could not begin to approach productive.  The Browns were ahead 10 points entering the 4th Quarter before the Cowboys rallied with Romo slinging it around.

Week 11: Thanksgiving Day against the Redskins:  Down 28-3 at the half, it is garbage time for half the game.  Now, the Cowboys turn into the unstoppable force against that Redskins prevent.  They drive up and down the field for tons of meaningless yards and points and finish with a gigantic yardage day that meant absolutely nothing.  Stat padding and fantasy points, but if you watched the game, you know it was a horrendous offensive day again.

Week 12: Home against Philadelphia, against a team that was not playing its starting QB (Vick), RB (McCoy), or WR (D Jackson) who had all been lost to injury.  But, the Cowboys offense looked about as good as it had all year long and thanks to the return of Murray at RB, actually accomplished plenty.  Good yardage and good point production against a very bad team, this one is a rare week where you do not question the offense.

Week 13: That memorable day at Cincinnati, where the Cowboys showed great resilience and won a game few expected.  Again, Romo took a beating and the team could not run the ball much at all.  Geno Atkins was in the backfield all day, but when the Cowboys needed it most, they were able to piece a few drives together and after being behind 19-10 heading into the 4th, they found 10 points late and won 20-19.  However, 288 yards of total offense was the 4th of 5 sub-300 yard offensive showings.  And sub-300 yard days are another way of saying unacceptable production in most NFL circles.

Week 14: With the exception of maybe the Giants win in Week 1, this is the best example of strong offensive play all season long.  An absolute dogfight against the Steelers where the offense showed constant production from a balanced attack.  Romo was strong, the pass protection was acceptable, and the running game was able to accomplish things.  Not an easy win, but a very impressive job from the offense.

Week 15: In this home game against the Saints, it was another example of giant production that seemed out of context given that it required a furious rally in the 4th Quarter down 31-17.  The Cowboys struggled mightily on 3rd Down (2-10) which gave the ball immediately back to the Saints who were not close to being stopped all day long with the make-shift Cowboys defense due to the injuries.  This game is not as bad as the home games with the Bears, Giants, and Redskins, but again, plenty of yards against prevent defenses which are letting you complete passes to run the clock.  That happened a ton this year.

Week 16: With all of the chips in the center of the table for the division title, the offense cannot produce much of anything.  Despite 7 possessions starting in Washington territory.  Yes, 7!  The Cowboys are able to convert just 3 of them into points of any kind.  They also famously throw 3 more interceptions and yet again do not eclipse the 300 yard barrier in a game of ultimate importance.  Against a QB with limited use of his leg, they are beaten on their biggest stage and have 3 turnovers and 295 yards.

So, overall, with roughly 3 games where you say the offense did what it needed to do (at NY, at Balt, and Pittsburgh) and 13 other games where the offense needed to show more than what it did to get good grades, I have very little use for hearing where it ranked in yards and points.  Granted, in some of those 13, the Cowboys showed great grit and determination, but nobody would confuse will with a fantastic offensive performance.  And least they shouldn't.

This offense was almost completely spared of injuries (comparatively speaking) and yet did not live up to the resources invested in it by any stretch of the imagination.  Looking at boxscores and totaling numbers is fun, but meaningless if you are constantly falling behind and then facing prevents to catch up.  Those numbers don't matter at all.

I appreciate the man defending his performance and thereby, his job security, but I found his optimistic appraisal of 2012 and the offense's performance to be misleading and I bet he would agree once he dug a little deeper - which I know he has in private.

You would think February would be a great time to show some transparency and concede these points, but Garrett did not take that approach as he credited his offense for their production.

I thought some equal time might be due for a small rebuttal.

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Decoding Garrett - Wk 16 - Redskins

As we sift through the rubble of another late-season failure, we are constantly reminded that the defense was hit with circumstances that nearly made their tasks impossible by the end of the year.  The inside linebackers were different, the safeties were different, and the defensive line was different than what left training camp.  Only the 2 outside linebackers and the 2 starting cornerbacks resembled the actual play of August and September.

Meanwhile, there is no such convenient excuses for the offense.  The 11 starters who started Week 16 were the exact same 11 players who played the majority of the snaps of the season opener in New York.  I say it that way because we all remember Phil Costa took the first 3 snaps of the season at center and then barely played again the rest of the year (he took a total of 126 snaps, Ryan Cook played 837 at center).

Otherwise, it was Romo with Murray and Vickers; Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the main targets; and Smith, Livings, Bernadeau, and Free across the front.  They were beat up and the receivers could not finish the game, but 11 of the 11 players from Week 1 were there and ready in Week 16 in Washington.

And, in fairness, the offense played some of its better football late in the season when the defense was holding on for dear life.  But that ended in Washington, where the Cowboys had one of their worst offensive performances at just the wrong time.

But, let's be careful how we label this one.  Because there is a real difference between the season-view of certain failures and Sunday's failure.  Many times this season, the offensive line and the running game betrayed them.  Other times, the game plan seemed overly conservative or careful.  Still others, there was no pass protection to speak of.

But, in this particular game, the coaches will look at the tape and they will see evidence of things that will drive them absolutely crazy.

For instance, in the volatile running game results that were predictably poor all season, the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness in Washington.  Without the aid of only 1 run of over 10 yards, the Cowboys found consistent running in small, but useful chunks all game long.  4.5 yards per carry in a divisional road game was almost too good to be true.  It was the 3rd best results of their season (only at New York and at Baltimore were better) and I am quite sure that they all would have signed up for those results before the game started.

Further, the average starting field position of each drive was 2nd best for the season.  They was only one other game all season (Tampa Bay) where the Cowboys were given the ball at an average better spot than their own 33 yard line.

They ran the ball well.  They "stayed ahead of the chains".  They were balanced up and further, they were actually quite efficient on 3rd Downs.  Further, they played a team that passed for only 100 yards.

Most weeks, indicators like all of these would point to a Cowboys offense that was healthy and probably had plenty of success.  The symptoms point to a game that was probably won.

And almost none of it mattered because they were sabotaged by taking a -3 in the turnover margin.  And of those 3 picks, almost all of the blame of the throws must go to the Quarterback and the fact that he was done in by a coach (Jim Haslett) who beat him with strong corner play on Dez Bryant and very little else that was remarkable - save for an insatiable thirst to bring pressure all day long.

We detailed the issues on Monday Morning in our "Morning After" column, where it seems they were betrayed by Tony Romo.

Playing an opponent for the 2nd time and being a veteran QB who had "seen it all", Romo had to be able to back off the pressure by making the Redskins pay.  Instead, it was a constant battle against the play clock to get his troops deployed and then to get the snap off before what appeared to often be a rather panicked few seconds of avoiding blitzers.

From Monday:

The Redskins blitzed at every opportunity. In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun. They blitzed and blitzed. And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12. They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not. 

Instead, the 3 interceptions - each for different reasons, but all 3 were deadly - proved to be more than the team could overcome.

I repeat what I have said before:  This is NOT like the other end of season failures where everything could be blamed.  This was a game that after further examination remains one in which so many things went better than expected that the game simply came down to one team protecting the football and one team did not.

-3.

Let us remind again what that number means:

But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year. With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record. And in the Romo-era? Well, the record is now 1-15. In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.

Further, we can expand it beyond the Cowboys.  In the entire NFL since 2010, the record for teams winning a game in which they are a "-3" in turnover ratio is 7-149.  That means you have roughly a 4% chance of winning any game in which you are that careless with the football.

Again, my thoughts on the Tony Romo era continuing are not a secret, but there is no rationale anywhere for a team being able to compete and win when their most important player lays an egg at just the wrong moment like Romo did Sunday night in Washington.

And for that, it is pointless to defend his career right now.  This is a time where he unfortunately played like his critics have claimed all along.


Data from Week 16 at Washington:

Run-Pass	22-39
Starting Field Position	D 33
1st Down Run-Pass	13-15
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.35
2nd Down Run-Pass	8-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.69
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	1-12
3rd Down Conversions	7-13, 54%

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.


1st Half -

2nd Half - 

Look how poorly the ball went out to the right flank.  On good nights, that is where the Cowboys do most of their damage.  But, look at all of the red over there.  Nothing could get cooking.  Rather, most of Romo's yards came on the favorite "Dig" route - the 15 yard deep in that is completed straight ahead and between the hash marks.

This chart shows balls thrown to Dez Bryant - he has won his battles with DeAngelo Hall over his short career, but on this night, there is no doubt the big mouthed corner got the decision.  

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-At Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 16-At Washington: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Season: 173 Drives* 76 Run/97 Pass - 43.9% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run



SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.

The Cowboys must decide what to do about this issue in 2013.  The trend and differences from 2011 are startling.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
Wk 16 - Wash: 34/61 56%

2012 Season Total: 565/1038 54%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Now, as you look at the breakdown with personnel groupings, it is actually interesting to see how the Cowboys did not try a whole lot of deception.  When they went under center, they were primarily running the ball - 27 snaps and 21 of those were running plays - all for good yardage.

And when they went to shotgun, they passed.  34 snaps and 33 were passes.  This does make us ask if more could have been done to cross up the Redskins defense a bit with more balanced attacks either way.

If they are sending the house when you are in shotgun, do you have a chance to sneak a run through their blitz?  Because if you can break through the blitz, there should be nothing but green grass.

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	4	20	3-9	1-11
12	3	33	1-9	2-24
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	14	71	12-59	2-12
22	5	10	4-14	1-(-4)
23	1	1	1-1	0-0
S01	3	32	0-0	3-32
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	19	72	1-8	18-64
S12	12	56	0-0	12-56
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	61	295	22-100	39-195

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.



Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	1	1	1-1	0-0	1/0
S01	2	32	0-0	2-32	1/1
S10	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	10	33	0-0	10-33	1/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	13	66	1-1	12-65	3/2

In the end, we find that this is a game where the statistics do not tell the whole story, unless you see that turnover margin that pretty much canceled out all of the good that was accomplished.

As a play caller, I have plenty of issues with Jason Garrett over the course of 6 seasons.  But, in a one-game portrait, he did his job reasonably well.  Did they try enough screen plays to take the pressure off the inside?  No, but they did throw several passes out to the edge to beat the blitz - including the last interception.  The throw betrayed the strategy.

Garrett deployed the troops, but his QB has to make great decisions.  A coach cannot make them for him after he prepares him the best he can.  

And in this game, I don't believe you can blame the offensive line, the play calling, or any other target.

This seems like the rare occasion where the Cowboys were just sabotaged by inferior QB play that was mostly based on a few decisions that did not value the ball enough or the game situation (the last INT was a risky throw on 1st Down).  

Most Sundays, if Tony Romo is your QB, you are going to be alright.  This game, with everything on the line, was not one of them.

  

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Decoding Garrett - Week 15 - New Orleans

Sunday was a truly bizarre game to analyze for a number of different reasons - not the least of which is that the Cowboys hardly ever got to touch the ball in the first 3 quarters.

The Saints dominated the time of possession and thereby dictated the tempo and the feel of the game.  In the first quarter alone, the Cowboys touched the ball for just 2:57, leaving the 12:03 to the Saints.  In the 4th Quarter, it was another 11:05 for New Orleans and overall a difference 41:59 to 22:28.

One thing the Cowboys did have cooking was the big play to Dez Bryant.  This quick strike kept them in a game in which their defense had to endure an absurd amount of snaps (91) and were surely drained.  But, in the 1st half, the Cowboys connected on 2 long Touchdowns of 58 yards each to Dez that allowed them to stay alive.  That now means that Tony Romo has hit on 3 passes this season of more than 40 yards and all 3 have been to Bryant (with the other happening on Thanksgiving Day).

The Romo to Bryant connection has become the savior of this offense as so much of the rest of the offense has been a roller coaster ride of inefficiency from week to week.  Some weeks, the team cannot rush the ball.  Some weeks, they cannot sustain drives.  Some weeks, they cannot pass protect.  And many weeks, they commit more penalties than they should.

But, from about week 5 on, the Bryant show has been phenomenal.  When the season ends, we will have an in-depth study on which routes and coverages he has been most prolific in, but any observer already knows most of that from simply watching the games.

Unfortunately, this game got away partly because the throw and catch of the 3rd Down slant in the overtime with Dez was stopped by the Saints baiting and then knocking down this play.  This reminds us of the Baltimore game when Bryant was so great but the inability to execute a better slant late in the game led to the long field goal that Dan Bailey missed back in Game #5 of the season so long ago.  As good a day as Romo to Bryant had, if they could have moved the chains one more time in the overtime, chances are good the Saints would have conceded another drive.  But, they got their rare stop, and almost like the late stages of a great NBA game, sometimes, all it takes is one stop to win a game.

And the Saints got one stop on an overtime slant to Bryant - caused a punt - and won the game.

Strategically, it was a familiar scene for the Cowboys offense.  They have run more shotgun this season than ever before under Jason Garrett and have relied on Shotgun 11-Personnel week in and week out to jump start their offense.

The try and try to run a normal offense and ultimately should be congratulated for not scrapping it altogether.  They twist and tweak each week to find the right combination, but then scrap it and find productivity with what amounts to their 2-minute drill.  This puts tons of pressure on Tony Romo to find passes when the defense is not defending the run at all, but he has done a masterful job of getting it done again - while most of the NFL doesn't notice.

Here are the numbers:

Data from Week 15 vs New Orleans:

Run-Pass	11-45
Starting Field Position	D 21
1st Down Run-Pass	8-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.10
2nd Down Run-Pass	3-16
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.72
3rd/4th Down Run-Pass	0-11
3rd Down Conversions	2-10, 20%

Just about as 1-dimensional as it gets and when they did try to run it, DeMarco Murray fumbled inside his own 10-yard line.  Not only all of this, but Romo had to over-come a fair number of drops, too.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.


1st Half -

2nd Half -  As you can see the volume went way up in the 2nd half and overtime as the Cowboys needed a furious comeback late. 

Here is what a 12 target, 9 catch, 224 day looks like for Dez Bryant.  He has arrived.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 162 Drives* 72 Run/90 Pass - 44% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run



SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.

As you will see below, they are miles beyond the amount of shotgun snaps of 2011.

Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%

2012 Season Total: 531/977 54%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	4	0-0	1-4
12	3	29	0-0	3-29
13	3	8	2-8	1-0
21	5	69	3-11	2-58
22	2	8	2-8	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	37	293	4-12	33-281
S12	5	34	0-0	5-34
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	56	445	11-39	45-406

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.



Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S10	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	11	46	0-0	11-46	2/1
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	11	46	0-0	11-46	2/1

In a nutshell, the Cowboys nearly stole one on Sunday despite being placed in a difficult spot all day by the Saints.  New Orleans had a number of offensive matchups the battered Cowboys defense had no answers for (which we will further examine tomorrow).

Somehow, Romo kept them alive until over-time, but then they missed one serve and the Saints made them pay (with a fortuitous bounce on a fumble late).

But, now, redemption is Sunday night.  Romo will have a chance to validate his performances this season with his biggest challenge yet in a hostile territory.

And yet, quietly, it seems that he is very much up for this and ready for it with his tight end setting a record and a big-play man wearing 88 on the outside.

The symmetry of huge road divisional wins on NBC primetime to bookend a long season would be a quite fitting way to win a divisional crown, no?

Time will tell us all.

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Decoding Garrett - Week 14 - Steelers

There was a pretty interesting stat that emerged from the Cowboys exciting win on Sunday that I think is worth mentioning before we move the Pittsburgh game completely aside.  It is the following:

Since 2004, there have been 5 times that the Steelers have lost a game while conceding 300 yards of passing to the opposing QB:

Sept 25, 2005 - New England 23, Pittsburgh 20 - Tom Brady 346 yards
December 9, 2007 - New England 34, Pittsburgh 13 - Brady 399 yards
November 11, 2010 - New England 39, Pittsburgh 26 - Brady 350 yards
January 8, 2012 - Denver 29, Pittsburgh 23 - Tim Tebow 316 yards
December 16, 2012 - Dallas 27, Pittsbugh 24 - Tony Romo 328 yards

In other words, it doesn't happen very often.

This was actually the 7th game this season where the Cowboys offense put up 400 yards of total offense, but it has been one of those years where the Cowboys have put up a very large amount of its production in games when they fall way behind and build up statistics that may or may not truly matter.

The Giants game in week 1 is thought of as the most efficient game this season in terms of productivity,  with an enormous 7.6 yards per play and 433 yards on just 57 snaps in a game where there was never a circumstance that would point to hollow yardage.  The top 2 performances in terms of yards per play were 2 of the last 3 games in which DeMarco Murray has been available again - 6.7 against a Philadelphia team that has offered no resistance whatsoever this season and 6.5 against a Pittsburgh team that builds its entire identify off its defense.

In fact, if you add in the 481 yards put up against the Baltimore Ravens, and you might see that the Cowboys showed themselves quite capable against the physical AFC North.  Wins against the Browns and Bengals, and offensive showings against the Ravens and Steelers - along with a 3-1 record (just a kick from 4-0) - tell us that the Cowboys may be a more physical team than we gave them credit for being.

There was a stat that floated out there on Sunday about the fact that DeMarco Murray has not eclipsed the 100 yard barrier since Week 1 in New York, and that is absolutely true.  If you have built your fantasy football team around him this year, I imagine your playoff run is already over.  But, it is tough to measure what his effect is on this offense from a standpoint of being capable of converting short yardage situations, picking up blitzes, being a receiver out of the backfield, and most importantly, selling play action.

Teams do not want to get beat for big yards against him, and that is why the linebackers stay home on the play fakes.  This allows for plenty more opportunities down the field - like the seam pass to Jason Witten for the touchdown on Sunday, and slants right past the ears of linebackers after a run fake.  That, and the fact that Murray has been good for 289 rushing and receiving yards in 3 games tells you that he is worth all of his hype.

Obviously, however, the Cowboys have discovered the hard way just how weak their offense looks when Murray is not available.  I don't believe Felix Jones is even a consideration for an extension in 2013, simply because the offense just cannot function with Jones or even Phillip Tanner behind him.  One major objective on draft day has to be to get another young RB or two in here to compete for the #2 job behind Murray.  To not plan for his next injury would be irresponsible, but given his style of running and his durability issues, the Cowboys must make it a priority to be covered the next time he cannot go for an extended period of time.

Other items worth mentioning included the idea that the Steelers were unable to generate many negative plays.  James Harrison certainly did a fine job on the Murray fumble in the red zone and the Romo naked boot leg that he sniffed out and destroyed, while Lawrence Timmons threw Tony Romo for a giant sack, but 3 plays out of 63 is a number you can live with after Geno Atkins alone had a half-dozen the week before.  I know the Steelers are not at the height of their defensive powers these days, but I think in a week where the Cowboys had to deal with the many exotic looks that a Dick LeBeau defense can provide, the fact that they seldom allowed a blitzer a free run at Romo is definitely worth pointing out.

The zone blitz requires the proper personnel, but to see Pittsburgh run it like they do really makes me wonder if the Cowboys could do more of that sort of thing with their defense.  The Steelers show that they are bringing 7 all of the time, but almost always have 2 or 3 dropping back in to passing lanes.  The one time they brought all 7 was on the 2nd and goal play in the 4th Quarter, right before the Murray TD run on 3rd and Goal.  They have almost no healthy cornerbacks and still are running a Cover 0 blitz on the goal-line.  I loved it, but couldn't tell if it was desperation or a great strategy.

But, through it all, I think most of us would have to say that the offensive line played about as well as you can expect them to.  In particular, Doug Free versus Lamarr Woodley was a match-up that did not result in any Steelers' highlights - perhaps because Woodley's health is not anywhere near where it should be, but take your victories any way you can get them.

One more offensive development worth raising is the contributions of Dwayne Harris, James Hanna, and Cole Beasley.  All 3 made plays in the passing game to help compensate for less Dez Bryant targets, and all 3 look very threatening as speedy threats.  I wish we would have seen more Hanna in 2012, but I understand that he must distinguish himself as a blocking threat if he wants to be used more.  That could simply require time and development in the offseason, because his wheels sure made linebackers look useless trying to run with him.  That is the type of mismatch issue that you would want to feature every week now that it has been shown off.

Let's check some of the numbers now-

Data from Week 14 vs Pittsburgh

Run-Pass	21-42
Starting Field Position	D 32
1st Down Run-Pass	7-26
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.26
2nd Down Run-Pass	7-12
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.2
3rd Down Run-Pass	6-5
3rd Down Conversions	4-11, 36%

Lots and lots of passing from lots of formations.  This game was going to be on Tony Romo versus Dick LeBeau.  Could Romo move the team without throwing a pass into traffic?

He did very well.

PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.



1st Half -

2nd Half -  many throws to the perimeter allow you to keep moving the ball without trying to throw through traffic constantly.  

Here is the throw chart for Miles Austin as he became the primary receiver with Dez Bryant nursing his left hand injury.  

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Season: 150 Drives* 68 Run/82 Pass - 45% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run

This picture below shows familiar target Lawrence Vickers trying to catch a ball with the sun in his eyes.  In a stadium that is indoors, but with windows facing the west.  Amazing job by the designers of the stadium to feature direct sunlight on a football field.  There are no do-overs on billion dollar stadiums.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.


Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63  55%

2012 Season Total: 489/921 53%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	0-0	1-2
12	11	84	6-48	5-36
13	4	33	3-20	1-13
21	6	44	2-4	4-40
22	1	0	0-0	1-0
23	5	6	5-6	0-0
S01	5	29	0-0	5-29
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	22	148	4-9	18-139
S12	8	71	0-0	8-71
Knee	1	0	1-0	0-0
Totals	70	288	21-87	42-330

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

Last week, the Cowboys tried 27 different plays from "under center" formations.  And those 27 plays yielded a pathetic 62 yards.  This leads many of us to the conclusion that shotgun is there only hope.  But, look at how great it worked this week from under center - 28 plays for 169 yards.

They did not abandon their balanced looks and they found many more yards on the same number of snaps.  They should be congratulated for figuring that out.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	1	3	1-3	0-0	0/1
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	4	7	4-7	0-0	2/0
S01	2	8	0-0	2-8	1/0
S10	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	4	8	1-3	3-5	0/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	11	26	6-13	5-13	3/1

Romo had a very efficient day under duress at times, but the Cowboys refused to scrap their offensive game-plan.  They worked down the field with a number of formations and produced one of their finest offensive performances.  Just a week after a very poor day in Cincinnati that they figured out how to win in the end, we shouldn't assume that they have turned a corner.

However, with more weapons and a player like Dez Bryant who is still coming up with Touchdowns, there is reason to believe that if they need 28-35 points to deal with New Orleans this week, they just might be able to find them.

Maybe, just in the nick of time, this offense is starting to gain some traction.

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Decoding Garrett - Week 13 - At Cincinnati

Aside from the very unique circumstances to the win in Cincinnati, we should not completely lose sight of the fact that the offense had the least productive outing in 2012.  With just 288 total yards of offense (despite an above-average 70 snaps), the production was quite modest.  In fact, the final 2 drives produced 118 yards, or the Cowboys offense would have flirted with a rare sub-250 day, which hasn't happened in a Tony Romo-started game since December of 2007.  Those days are normally reserved for Brad Johnson, Stephen McGee, or Jon Kitna starts, and game plans that simply are constructed to avert risk from the moment the Cowboys run out of the tunnel.

All roads of explanation lead us back to the match-up at the line of scrimmage.  I promise, I do not try to make every "Decoding Garrett" review about the fact that this team's offensive line cannot block with any regularity the teams on their schedule, but it seems to reveal itself as anyone observing a Cowboys game can see an offense that is constantly under siege.

And what makes matters worse, is that the Cowboys are not a horrible team at picking up blitzes.  What this means is that teams do not trouble Romo on blitz plays any worse than they seem to bother a normal NFL offense.  But, where the Cowboys really have failing grades across the board all season long seems to be the plays where the opponent is just rushing the front 4.

A successful offense must be able to block 4 pass rushers with 5 offensive linemen most (if not all) of the time.  If a team cannot, it has two choices - both bad.  Either leave their tight end and their running back in to help - this leaves 7 defensive players covering just 2 or 3 targets - or run routes that can develop in less than 2.5 seconds so as not to ask the offensive line to hold up.  The trouble with the first option is nobody can get open because they are all doubled and the trouble with the latter is the defense reacts and pushes up to defend all shallow routes, making all openings smaller and smaller for a QB under duress to find.

As you can see, all of the fundamentally preferable options go out the window when 5-man protection (called "scat protection") is not an option.  Most of the Bengals best scenarios of pass rush came when they rushed 4 or fewer men.  The Cowboys try to trust their OL and get Witten and Murray out and open, but when they do, they are consistently disappointed by the fact that the line cannot hold up.

And, to make matters worse, keeping in a tight end to pass protect only works if you are helping tackles, in general.  It is tough for Witten to assist Ryan Cook at center, unless you get real creative with slide protections, but that would then ask Witten to block an edge rusher 1-on-1 and that doesn't go very well, either.

Which leads us back to a familiar destination; this team cannot be the offensive force people want it to be without a better group of offensive linemen.  I know this seems obvious and self-evident, but given that I have written stories like this since 2010 just about weekly with the same conclusions, you could argue that the Cowboys are a little slow to admit the obvious.  This issue has not been solved by simply changing players and hoping change fixes it, nor can hiring a new coach to tell the same sub-standard players new techniques.  At some point, you must hire elite talent to get elite results.  Hopefully, the spring of 2013 goes better than the spring of 2012 on this front.

To often we try to quantify pass rush effect by merely looking at sacks, but I think the Cowboys teach us weekly to consider the issues that pressure cause Romo to navigate around simply to get off a throw.  There were countless moments in this game and this season where Romo must work a magic trick so that he may find a brief opening to fire off a pass.  If you watch other games, you may notice that this doesn't seem like a normal routine for most other QB's.  My man, Tim, who makes the passing charts for this blog every week, wrote this on that topic:

I have a quick question if you don't mind. I've heard you mention the Cowboys struggle with explosive plays and I think even towards the bottom on the league. I know in the stats sheets it won't show this but for conversation sake is it possible to diminish what little explosive plays they have when Romo has to run around the entire field just to get off those throws? Doing these charts for past two seasons I've noticed so many times that Romo has to throw 13 yards just to earn 3 because he has drop back and scramble ten yards deep.

Excellent point, Tim.  In fairness, the Cowboys explosive plays (20 yards+) actually have been on quite an uptick in the 2nd half of the season, since they decided to risk harm to Romo and try to compete for a playoff spot by calling deeper pass plays.  They have worked their way up to 50 explosive plays this season, which is right at the league average.  The break out of Dez Bryant has certainly aided these numbers and the Cowboys are getting more plays going down the field when they have time.

It is a delicate balance, but Tim's point is worth visiting.  Below, please find the passing chart from Sunday's 2nd half.  These are all of the throws that Romo had against the Bengals in the 2nd stanza, and I want you to notice two things.

1) - that almost all of the successful plays were between the hash marks.  Throws straight ahead that were able to penetrate the soft spots of the pass defense, but the throws down the field to the outside were not finding their spots.

2) - Romo's release point is nowhere near where it should be on almost every last throw.  We don't discuss "release point" much, but when you watch practice or training camp, you know that plays are designed for ideal circumstances.  When a QB drops back, he drops straight back (5 or 7 steps), goes through his read progressions, and then steps into and makes a throw.   Where that spot on the field is, directly behind the center, is called the release point or where the QB wants to release the football.  This is the offense's plan and the defense bases all of their pass rushes on using that same spot as their ideal destination.  In defensive meetings, teams want to "change his release point".

This is almost always the case for Romo behind this line.  He never can use the same release point twice.  He has to spin, dance, side-step, push off, and then throw as someone is hanging on him.  Defensive strategy is always to get a QB to have to move off of his release point, and with the Cowboys line in shambles (again), we have come to accept that this is how Romo must make throws.



But, understand, and note that when you watch a team like New England, their passing chart would have the lines all beginning from roughly the same point in the pocket.  It would look like a flower with the same point on the stem, instead, as you note above, Romo is throwing from a different spot almost every single play.

The results are actually very good for what is being asked of him.  But, know that this is not how the offense is designed to work, nor is it something any QB could pull off.  But, in Dallas, we have been looking at a poor OL for so long, that we have forgotten that there is an alternative.

Again, after the performance Geno Atkins and the Bengals put on the Cowboys' OL, it is truly amazing that Dallas won this game.

Data from Week 13 at Cincinnati

Run-Pass	24-46
Starting Field Position	D 25
1st Down Run-Pass	10-18
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	7.8
2nd Down Run-Pass	10-13
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.8
3rd Down Run-Pass	4-15
3rd Down Conversions	11-19, 58%

Amazingly, one of the most under-reported aspects of this season has been the phenomenal improvement on 3rd Down conversions.  I am not flush with theories on this, but somehow, the Cowboys have passed every team in the NFL in 3rd Down conversions - except for the amazing New England Patriots.  Sunday, we saw it again, that on 19 do-or-die situations, the Cowboys hit on nearly 60%.  That raises their season to 2nd in the league at 45%.

I will continue to try to understand what has changed and what is working so much better, but clearly, they are doing something right because they are keeping drives alive when all other parts of their offense is not pulling its weight.

It is counter-intuitive, but that is keeping them in this playoff run.  And quietly, demonstrating yet again that the Cowboys have a pretty strong player at the most important position.


PASSING CHARTS:

Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.

Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.



1st Half -

2nd Half -  Scroll above for the chart of the 2nd half

Dez Bryant's passing chart - Where he was basically thrown a number of slants on the same side, a deep ball that Reggie Nelson was flagged for roughness, and then the DIG route for the touchdown.  And now, we sit on pins and needles to see if Bryant's season is over.

Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -

Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Season: 138 Drives* 64 Run/74 Pass - 46% Run

* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 4 so far this year).

2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run


SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.


Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl:  29/54  54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62  38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70  61%

2012 Season Total: 454/858 53%

2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%

Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.


Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	2	-1	2-(-1)	0-0
12	6	19	2-(-7)	4-26
13	2	-5	1-2	1-(-7)
21	8	31	4-6	4-25
22	5	12	4-12	1-0
23	4	6	3-6	1-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0
S11	40	206	8-30	32-176
S12	3	20	0-0	3-20
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	70	288	24-49	46-239

* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.

27 plays under center in a balanced offensive posture for a putrid 62 yards of production.  We see this time and time again.  The Cowboys only offensive production is through the shotgun and when they put the entire game on Romo with a few hard runs from Murray mixed in.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	3	1-3	0-0	1/0
23	3	5	2-5	1-0	1/1
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S10	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	14	49	1-6	13-43	7/0
S12	1	15	0-0	1-15	1/0
Totals	19	72	4-14	15-58	10/1

Do not think, even for a second, that the offense did a good job on Sunday.  Rather, they survived.

Two things cover a lot of stink right now, some timely 3rd Down conversions and of course, some magical moments late in games.  Similar to the wins at Philadelphia and Cleveland, this is a win, but the efficiency of the offense is far from being satisfactory.  Murray is back and the Cowboys pretty much had the same offensive personnel that they left training camp with (Cook for Costa/Arkin) and yet, it has been a pretty big failure all season long.

At 7-6, you could argue it has been a pretty impressive rally from this team to stay in contention given all of the poor things about this team.

But, we wonder what it must be like to enter a game trying to understand how to attack opposing defenses, rather than trying to game-plan around your own weaknesses - which seems to have been the strategy for this offense for quite a while.

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