Decoding Garrett - Week 8 - Data - Seattle

"Winning 1st Down". The basic battle ground of a football game starts for all involved on winning 1st Down. Anyone who consumes NFL press conferences will often hear a coach talk about this topic and often not quite understand the ramifications of what it all means. After all, as a fan, 1st Down hardly ever seems vital in its outcome. This is where coaches and fans see things quite differently.

1st and 10 is the ultimate 50/50 split play. The defensive team must sit on the years and years of data at nearly all levels of football that say on 1st and 10 tendencies do not reveal anything. 50% of their positioning, strategy, and technique is to defend against the run and 50% is to prepare for the pass. A defense must play it "straight up" because the offense is looking to take advantage of as coaches say, "whatever the defense gives them".

Meanwhile, offensive coaches are talking about "staying on schedule". This means that they prefer to always remain in the 50/50 scenario inside the defense's head. What does this mean? Well, if 1st and 10 is 50/50, so is 2nd and 6 or less. 2nd and 12 or 2nd and 9 is a pass-heavy down. And on 3rd Down, the entire league passes, but if the team is to stay where it is 50/50, you would need 3rd and short. Let's say 3rd and less than 3.

If you get behind schedule, now the defense is not concerned with your run attack. And if they can eliminate run plays from their focus, then this is where you get coverage issues and blitz situations. And this is where nearly every offense finds operating more difficult.

So, if you can weed through the cliches and the armor of Jason Garrett when he talks offense, you will find a guy who believes in offensive balance and staying on schedule (as does pretty much every coach this side of Mike Leach). This is certainly now a pass-first league with offenses just running 42% and passing 58%, but 1st Down remains what it always has. 50/50, or 50.7% run and 49.3% pass so far league-wide in 2011 to be precise.

Which brings us to the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have run 250 snaps out on 1st Down this year and run the ball 50.8% of the time (127/123). When they move to 2nd Down, the splits are now 71/103 (41% run). And of course on 3rd Down, it drops off the table to 17/79 or 17% runs. Defenses collect this data and it helps them determine what sub-packages to utilize in a given down and distance situation. Of course, offenses use the same charts to determine ideal plays for ideal Down and Distance opportunities as well. Every coach has plenty of plays for 3rd and 3, but they will all tell you there is no play for 3rd and 16,

In effect, everything you do as an offense starts on 1st and 10. And that is why we keep the numbers that we do in the first box every week. We want to see the Run/Pass splits according to down, and more importantly, we want to see how many yards to go the Cowboys were asking of themselves on 2nd and 3rd Down. This team is having major issues this season on 3rd Downs (35%) and most of those issues happen when they get in too many "3rd and Long" spots. The entire NFL converts just 19% on 3rd and 10+, and the Cowboys are even worse at 17%.

RESULTS VS SEATTLE

Why am I writing all of this after the offense played so well against Seattle until it fell into the red zone? Because, the Cowboys were quite successful on 1st Down in this game, and everything else fell into place. The important statistic known as "average yards to go on 2nd Down" produced the best result of the season (6.33). Across the NFL, teams average 7.97 yards to go on 2nd Down. The Cowboys mark is slightly better at 7.89. So, the mark of 6.33 is very strong. This means they were getting plenty of good things done on 1st Down. The running game was strong and that made the Seahawks bring a safety up to help defend against DeMarco Murray. When they walk a safety up, that is when Romo is ready to go to the air on 1st Down.

Fans will tell you this is Garrett finally realizing that he should throw the ball down the field. Garrett will tell you that this doesn't happen if the Seahawks don't fear the running game and commit a safety up in the box. And, the Seahawks don't fear the run if there is nothing to fear.

4 times on Sunday, Garrett and Romo "took a shot" down the field. I imagine this is a season high for deep routes, but I my memory could be failing. The Witten busted coverage TD is not included here as that was a developing pass play that was simply Romo going through his reads. But, the 4 shots below were all designed as the 1st and sometimes only option of the pass play down the field.

Deep Shot #1 - Play #7 - 1/10/D30 - 21 Personnel - 39 yards to Bryant
Deep Shot #2 - Play #19 - 3/4/D32 - S12 Personnel - 37 yards to Austin
Deep Shot #3 - Play #41 - 1/10/D31 - 12 Personnel - INC down sideline to Austin
Deep Shot #4 - Play #50a - 1/10/O35 - 21 Personnel - INC down sideline to Robinson

Notice, 3 are on 1st and 10 when the defense is looking for the 50/50 run possibilities. 2 are with Tony Fiammetta back there as a fullback, thus getting the strong safety's attention. In fact, on the first shot - the completion to Bryant in the 1st Quarter, Earl Thomas is blitzing and Fiammetta picks him up.



The image above shows Thomas sneaking up to the 35 yard line as the 8th man in the box. They are ready to take on the run. And that leaves Bryant and Austin in a man-to-man situation with a free safety over the top. And when there is a single-high safety, he cannot protect the sideline route. It is simply too much ground to cover.

So, does this pass happen if they are in a 2-Deep situation as in the week before at Philadelphia? No. The pass is not there. The threat of the run is what makes this play possible.

The same is true on the other two 1st Down passes down the field. Hold the safeties and take a shot. This isn't to say that deep throws can never happen without a running game making the opponent respect you, but it does demonstrate that things get so much easier if you can run the football.

1st Down shots to your Wide Receivers down the field. Is there enough time to pass protect? If you do it on 1st Down, there will be much more. And, the final two "shots" were both the drive starters. After interceptions, Garrett/Romo went for the throat on 1st and 10. Look for this as the season continues to develop.

--------------------

Data from Week 8

Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split, there is no way the defense respects your running game.

SHOTGUN SNAPS-

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49

Wk 8 - Sea 19/59

Total - 211/503 41.9%

=====


Here is the Game Data from Week 8:

Look at the great stats on 2nd and 3rd down yardage to go. You will take that every week and you will win.

Run-Pass	28-31
1st Down Run-Pass	12-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	6.33
2nd Down Run-Pass	14-6
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	5.14
3rd Down Run-Pass	3-11
3rd Down Conversions	6-14, 43%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. On Sunday, The Cowboys had a surprising number of 1st play passes. In fact, some were downfield. A very aggressive game plan from the coach.

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 7-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass

Wk 8-Seattle - 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Total: 90 Drives - 39 Run/51 Pass 43% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

Here we look at how the Cowboys did with each personnel package. Once again we see that packages that involve FB Fiammetta are far more efficient than the packages that don't. He, of course, is the lead blocker in "21" and "22". And the 79 run plays from 21 and 22 this season have yielded 628 yards or 7.94 yards per carry. However, in "11", "12", and "13" personnel (no FB or a TE lined up as a FB) the Cowboys have tried 90 run plays this season for just 243 yards - 2.7 yards per carry. That sample should also account for Murray in place of Felix on most carries, but that is a startling number.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	2	1-2	0-0
12	6	58	1-2	5-56
13	1	8	0-0	1-8
21	9	78	6-70	3-8
22	20	130	18-113	2-17
23	3	0	1-0	2-0
S01	1	6	0-0	1-6
S02	4	52	0-0	4-52
S11	10	66	0-0	10-66
S12	4	42	1-4	3-38
Knee	1	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	59	442	28-191	31-251

Table Tutorial

And now those same numbers on 3rd and 4th Downs. Efficiency here needs to be a focus point in the 2nd half. The elite offenses are out performing the Cowboys by a shocking advantage.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	1	2	1-2	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	1	14	1-14	0-0	1/0
23	1	0	0-0	1-0	0/0
S01	1	6	0-0	1-6	0/1
S02	3	46	0-0	3-46	1/0
S11	5	30	0-0	5-30	2/0
S12	2	41	1-4	1-37	1/0
Totals	14	139	3-20	11-119	5/1

Table Tutorial

All in all, a very strong offensive game where they were sabotaged by the offense for quite a while.

Tomorrow, let's break down the issues with the goal-line offense in our X's and O's breakdown. And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Read More

The Morning After: Cowboys 23, Seahawks 13 (4-4)

There are Sundays every season that come to symbolize the full tapestry of a campaign and rise above all other game as those rare moments to savor.

Yesterday's win over the Seattle Seahawks will not be one of those.

Rather, if it is remembered at all, it will only serve to strengthen the debates of those that consider the Dallas Cowboys to simply be a middle-of-the-road squad that can beat bad teams without style points and struggle against league heavyweights. After being humiliated in Philadelphia one week before, the Cowboys faithful were anticipating a show of strength that would quiet those pessimists.

But, that flexing of the muscles never fully materialized as the Cowboys struggled to string a full drive together with a punctuating score at the end. And while the offense was wasting large amounts of yardage, the defense was allowing Seattle - a squad that doesn't run the football - to pound the ball down the field with rather surprising ease. Without the real threat of a passing attack, the Seahawks were able to ask questions of a Cowboys front 7 that were attempting to carry on in the absence of their run stopper, Sean Lee. And Dallas did not have all of the answers. Marshawn Lynch and Seattle matched everything the Cowboys rushing attack could produce down to nearly the very last yard. On the ground, Dallas yielded 163 yards on 29 attempts and Seattle rolled up 162 yards on 30 attempts. Every rushing play for either team averaged out to 5.5 yards per carry.

3 times in the 1st half alone, the Cowboys offense put together an outstanding drive that threatened to take the game by the scruff of the neck. But, all 3 drives hit a wall right outside the goal-line and instead of racking up 21 points to compliment their 300 yards of 1st half offense, the team was stuck in a 6-6 tie.

The drives stalled for different reasons, but mostly the first two again demonstrated that the Cowboys are one of the least efficient offenses in the NFL when it comes to sticking in Touchdowns from the "red zone". Entering the game, they were in the bottom handful, and their 1-3 performance on Sunday isn't going to help. And technically, one could suggest they were 1-4, but the Dez Bryant fumble at the 1 will not count as a red zone failure since the play started at the 24 yard line. The fans took notice, however, that those final 36 inches on the field are serving as a real issue for this offense to find its true potential.

In the end, the Cowboys won a game that offered a drama-free 4th Quarter for the 3rd straight week. That, of course, is a welcome change for hearts everywhere from the last second results in each of the first 5 games of the year. But, the alternating of wins and losses must halt in November for this team to seriously challenge for post-season participation.

So what has been learned from the 1st half of the 2011 campaign? It would be difficult to fully summarize, really. Wins over Washington, St Louis, and Seattle would indicate that the Cowboys can beat bad teams. A win over San Francisco looks better each week that the 49ers continue to beat every opponent they face. Losses to the Jets, Lions, Patriots, and Eagles would reveal that against playoff teams, the Cowboys have yet to put it all together against teams equal or superior in talent.

Which leads one to the obvious beacon of hope for the 2011 Cowboys and beyond. DeMarco Murray. If there is a reason to feel that the Dallas Cowboys could get on a run of form that could vault them above the mediocrity of 4-4 at the halfway mark, adding a running back that can offer a contribution that is a level or two above what they have received for the last several years would be just what the football doctor ordered.

He may not be as good as he has shown in the last 3 weeks, but even if he is close to that level, the Cowboys have their RB of the present and the future. Jerry Jones indicated yesterday in the locker-room that talk of Murray being the starter over a healthy Felix Jones moving forward is premature. That sentiment further illustrates Jones' general lack of recognition on many football matters, despite his insistence on being the decision maker at most turns.

Murray has just finished a 3-game stretch where he has carried the ball 55 times for 466 yards. 8.5 yards per carry! Behind the exact same offensive line that hasn't been able to run the ball all season? 11 carries of 10 yards or more? 18 carries for 1st downs and another for a 91 yard touchdown. Add in 45 more yards receiving (which was said to be his strength on draft day) and you have a player who has generated 500 yards of offense in 3 games.

What makes Murray most impressive is his ability to make runs out of very little. The Cowboys offensive line remains lacking in many categories - especially along the interior where much of the running game's success is generated. But with Murray carrying the mail - and fullback Tony Fiammetta's excellent work - the Cowboys are seeing runs with no hole yielding a handful of yards, and runs with a slight hole are being seized by Murray for 8 or 12. In effect, he is accomplishing what every team so badly desires, a decisive runner who can at times generate something out of nothing.

He plants his foot, makes a cut, and goes. He does not dance and wait. He seems to already know that at the NFL level, a gap is there for but a split-second and then it disappears and the runner will be engulfed in a sea of humanity. But, Murray is showing a level of instinct and execution from the running game that has not been seen in Dallas for years.

That pace is superhuman and should not be projected moving forward, but to compare it to the work of Felix Jones, Tashard Choice, or Marion Barber is simply no-contest. If a rookie does it once, it can be considered a fluke. When he has a 55-carry sample, then a team has a starter moving forward unless the injured starter was a dominant All-Pro. Felix Jones was certainly a player who had his opportunities and will get more. But, if Jerry has serious reservations about moving Murray into the full-time role, then one would have to seriously question his attention to the last 3 games.

The historical ramifications of the last 3 weeks with Murray are quite clear. This chart shows the 5 best 3-game stretches by a RB in Cowboys' history:

RB	Year	3 Game Total Yards
D Murray	2011	466
E Smith	1993	446
J Jones	2004	436
E Smith	1994	434
E Smith	1993	433

HTML Tables

Julius Jones had a similar run in 2004 and then was never close to replicating it again. What made Emmitt Smith one of the best runners of all-time was consistency and durability. The search for another Emmitt Smith seems like a pointless endeavor, but that doesn't mean that jobs shouldn't be challenged and regardless of tenure or salary, the better man should get the nod. Felix's best 3 game stretch of his career was 228 yards in 2010. Barber had a 3 game stretch of 285 in 2008. Troy Hambrick even had 300 yards over 3 games in 2003.

But, this rookie looks to be above the quality level of any Cowboys runner since Emmitt. Time will tell as durability and game-planning are his next proving grounds, but there should be no question who holds the job moving forward.

Fox's Tim Ryan astutely pointed out that Tony Romo has never had a reliable and complete back at his disposal in the offense. There has never been a reason to bring a safety down in the box on a consistent basis to respect the runner. That might be changing.

And if it is changing, the Cowboys may be getting ready to go on a run.

Read More

So, Are The Stars Really Good?

It is certainly possible that the dramatic October of the Texas Rangers and the frustrating October of the Dallas Cowboys has kept your sports thoughts miles from hockey. In fact, based on the crowds, I would say that it borders on likely.

But, now, with all of the tiny baseballs tucked in their tiny baseball beds, and with the NBA press conference-to-game ratio right now at about 1000 to 0, I thought it was a good time to remind you of the NHL hockey that is going on right under your noses. And get this, it is a pretty solid product being put out on the ice.

As you read this, the Dallas Stars have played 11 games into their season and sit on top of the Pacific Division with 16 points. Of course, in the interest of fair reporting, they also sit just 3 points from last place in the Pacific, but let's try to go with the cup being "half full".

Depending on what spreadsheet you use, the Stars either sit 29th or 30th in the 30-team NHL in terms of payroll dedicated to its roster. Payroll doesn't always mean everything, but there is a distinct reason why teams pay different players different amounts. The better players get more money and the teams that collect the most good players generally have quite a roster. The fact remains that as the smoke has completely cleared from one of Tom Hicks sports ventures (the Texas Rangers), and is almost cleared from another (Liverpool FC), there is still plenty of smoke suffocating the day to day operations of the Stars. They are the last of his sports properties to be rescued from his custody and although the light can be seen at the end of the tunnel, there is still a bit more to go.

But, I will leave that discussion for those with law degrees and interests in talking about court-room proceedings. I would rather look at the Stars as someone who has watched every shift and game closely, and answer the question I am constantly asked: "Are the Stars for real?"

The Stars new coach, Glen Gulutzan has the team roaring out of the starting blocks. Joe Nieuwendyk has built a team that finally resembles his vision (at least the best vision $48 million can buy) and the Stars can legitimately say that they are "tough to play against". Too many times in the past several years the Stars have been a bit less convincing in their desire to win a street fight. The resolve was sometimes present, but never were the Stars considered one of the more prickly teams in the NHL. In fact, if you search the archives, you will find many Stars leaders fancy themselves capable of replicating what Detroit could do - play with the puck all night and never let you touch it - easier said than done. It also requires lots of money to put a "high skill" team on the ice, which is something Tom Hicks stopped doing around the time of the Alex Rodriguez/Bill Guerin era.

So, the painful transition of having a "skill" team without enough "skill" players was underway. The team popped an amazing playoff run in 2008 when the careers of Sergei Zubov, Brad Richards, Mike Modano, and Brendan Morrow all intersected for a few short months. But, once Zubov retired and the payroll declined - along with the talent of the team - playoffs became the aspiration rather than the Stanley Cup.

No playoffs in 2009, 2010, and 2011 have rendered the Dallas Stars to a rather low level of sports-relevancy in this "winners town" that must now be rebuilt. We have seen the narrative enough times to know that if you put quality on the ice or field and give your customers a chance to believe they have a chance to have their dreams come true, they will get behind you. But, the second they lose that belief, they find another way to spend their money. Diehards? Maybe not. But, that is the world you live in. Put quality on the ice, and the crowds will be quality, too.

Back to the question at hand; Are the Stars any good this year?

I think that they are. They have a very balanced roster which might mean no "top end" players making $8 million but they do have 18 skaters who all have a role that they are capable of taking care of. They have added players that fight and battle and do not appear miscast. But, most importantly, I believe they have elite goaltending for the first time in years.

No disrespect for Marty Turco, but this is better than anything I have seen in years. Kari Lehtonen has put this thing on his back and pulled the team through a lot of nights where they might not have deserved results. He has great size and confidence and is locked in right now. He is getting help, but he is also not allowing the back-breaking goal at just the wrong time which had become customary around here.

And when you are getting elite goaltending, you can go many places in this league. The question is whether they can resist the urge to over-use his ability now and let him save some for the spring time. If he gets hot in the playoffs and plays like this, look out.

Concerns? There are a few. The scoring looks spotty. The Power Play lacks power (except when Sheldon Souray dials one up to about 100 mph from the point). They may be a goal scorer or two away from a contender who can last 82 games and then win a few rounds. And their goalie sees way too many shots every night. Being outshot by 6 shots a night is not a trend that I think can sustain with wins for 82 games.

But, Jamie Benn will knock your socks off. Morrow is still charging the net and Steve Ott is thankfully still Steve Ott. Souray is anchoring a blue-line with Stephane Robidas and a gang that looks far more organized and deployed than they have in quite a while.

And most importantly, this team gets after it night after night. Nieuwendyk has actually found that mix of players that understand their spot and are willing to carry it out. I don't sense opponents enjoy their experience against Dallas anymore. This is now a "scratch and claw" team that the 29th payroll team must be.

We thought that this team was a playoff team last season when they were 10 points up in mid-January. They faded late as injuries and fatigue set in and they fell just 1 point short. It taught them to treat points in October and November as valuable and potentially season-deciding.

This crew was selected by Sports Illustrated to finish 15th in the Western Conference. If you do the math, you will see that there is nowhere lower you can be picked.

Whether they read that publication or not, they are playing so far as if they wish to use it for motivation. They sit 1st in their division and 3rd in the conference, but November 4th is merely another day in the marathon.

So, are they any good? I think so. Good enough? Well, I think that they are going to need more help.

Once a new owner gets the keys (this month?), perhaps reinforcements will be headed this way. But, I assume that will be largely based on the current crew proving to their new boss that they are worthy of his checkbook for season #1 of his regime.

But, in the meantime, they are attempting to prove to you that they are worthy of yours.

Read More

Cowboys E-Bag - 11/3/11

Let's dive into another edition of the Cowboys E-Mail Bag!

As per usual, you can reach me at Sturm1310@aol.com, @sportssturm on Twitter, and you can text me if you have my cell phone number. Here we go:

Email #1:

What letter grade would you assign the members of the Cowboys offensive line? --Jason

Jason,

This is a good thing to look at as we turn the calendar to November. How would we rate the particular members of the offensive line? As a unit, things have not gone very well, so let's try to separate the feelings of the whole and break it down to individuals. Letter grades are not ideal for this, so I will rate each of them on from 1-10, with 1 being a player you simply must released and 10 being a player that is an automatic for the All-Pro team (think Joe Thomas).

The Cowboys have played 479 plays this season on offense according to my friends at ProFootballFocus.com. Only 5 lineman have played even 25% of the possible snaps, so let's not rate Montrae Holland (114 snaps) or Derrick Dockery (70) until we have a larger sample size. Kevin Kowalski (31) and Jeremy Parnell (3) hopefully will not need to see the field enough to qualify.

But, from the 5 who have played enough, let's do some grading.

Doug Free, LT Grade-5 (479 snaps): Here is a guy who we hoped with his new contract would be a solid 8 as a Left Tackle and was ready to anchor the offensive line entering the season. He was coming off a season where he was a rock and was among the very elite in the run game. In 7 games this season, I think he has played very well in the Jets, Lions, and Rams games. In the Eagles game he was ok, and against the 49ers, Redskins, and Patriots he looked like he was having all sorts of trouble. He is not someone I worry about long term, but I do wonder if they will flip Smith and Free in 2012 or 2013. He has not been good enough and now hovers around the level of an average left tackle in the league rather than a Top 10 left tackle which is where we thought he could be. His run blocking must be better and his edge is quite vulnerable. On the other hand, look at who he faces every week and you will find the best in the business attacking him.

Bill Nagy, LG Grade-2 (283 Snaps): Bill Nagy was not ready to start in the NFL, but the Cowboys threw him out there to start the season. He was overpowered at Left Guard and certainly was one of the reasons that the Cowboys thought they were ready to go to a "zone" running scheme. It was really a very poor experiment that should be blamed on the people who conceived it rather than the poor rookie who tried to carry out their plan. Nagy was not able to hold blocks, pushed into the backfield, and eventually had his season end with a gruesome injury to his leg in the 4th Quarter in New England. He has value moving forward if he can stay in the weight room and mature as he appears to have the proper mentality, but please do not ask players to start who are just not ready. His injury brought back Montrae Holland and immediately the team could run the ball again with the pulling guards and the angle blocking that has worked in the past.

Phil Costa, C Grade-2.5 (460 snaps): If there is a funeral for the season in 2011, I would think the main speaker would have to note the move at the center of the offensive line for the Cowboys from Andre Gurode to Phil Costa. Financially, I am sure it made some sense, but football wise, the drop-off in performance is staggering. Gurode is certainly struggling in Baltimore as he tries to play guard, but his play at center last year was in the top third of the league (even though he had some frustrating characteristics). This year, the center play for the Cowboys has been at the top of the list for why this offense is so constipated. He held up pretty well in the Jets game, but since then, it seems that nearly every week the opponent is testing him hard. The game in New England is about as poorly as I have ever seen a center play with the Patriots proving he had very few answers. Again, we should likely question the decision makers rather than the player as he is undrafted and very young. He may have value as he develops, but the Cowboys need him to be way better if this season is going to head in the proper direction. The shotgun snaps are frustrating, but the caving in of the line is what causes Romo to have a low-eye level as he looks for receivers while fearing for his life.

Kyle Kosier, RG Grade 6 (479 snaps): Unlike Doug Free, Kyle Kosier is a player you did not anticipate to have a All-Pro season. He is a fighter and a scrapper and the man you use to call out protections for the offensive line. He pulls in space better than anyone the Cowboys have had at guard in years and is more than a little valuable to the entire operation. He loses some battles as he takes on bigger and quicker players in the interior from time to time, but for the majority of the time, I find myself appreciating what Kosier is all about and what he means to this team. Overall, Kosier is exactly who you hoped he would be. A reasonable guard who can help the kids along. With a rookie on one side and a first-time starter on the other, you cannot undersell his veteran presence in those battles as well. New England was not a great day, but for the most part, in a 60-play game, Kosier will roll out 57 or 58 solid snaps.

Tyron Smith, RT Grade 6.5 (476 snaps): For a rookie to come out of the gates and to play at the level he has played is very impressive. Clearly, he is coming off his toughest day at the office in Philadelphia, but we know that Jason Babin has been teaching clinics on pass rush spin moves for a couple years now, and Tyron had to learn a lesson. But if we look at his game to game performances and consider his composure, his awareness, his development, and most importantly his age (he will turn 21 in December), we know that Smith is on his way to a great career. He has shown that he will concede a sack from time to time, but I consider much of that learning technique at the NFL level rather than not having the ability to do the job. In the running game he is very strong and his fight is admirable. I think he has been the Cowboys best line player and am not overly concerned that he had a rough night in Philly. Those are going to happen. The next question is whether he will hit a rookie wall or not as we head into the 2nd half of the year.

So, I rank them in 2011: Smith, Kosier, Free, Costa, Nagy. But, in my estimation, much of this could have been avoided if the front office would have slowed their roll on clearing Gurode out for another season and maybe had Costa play LG between Gurode and Free. But, Jerry never listens to me.
------------

Email #2 where anonymous responds to my thoughts on Romo's protection time:

Bob I have great respect for your insight, however I think you may be incorrect in stating that nobody can pick a team apart if they have to throw the ball in under 2 seconds. "This means throwing the ball in under 2 seconds. And that means that your deep threats never have time to get deep on their routes. " Please see your own article on the Patrios Masterpiece. Brady is in shotgun and releases the ball in 1.7 seconds. I think the correct thing to think, is that Tony Romo can't execute an offense in that short a time frame. - anonymous

Anonymous,

I like this email because over the course of time, there are a few things that might require elaboration so that I am not misunderstood. This might be on of them. First, I did not say "nobody" can flourish in a quick-release offense. I think Rodgers, Brady, and Manning do quite well. Here is what I said on Tuesday:

Don't just look at the sack totals. Look at the play calling that attempts to prevent sacks by getting the ball out of Romo's hand. That issue is obvious every week in 2011, as Garrett and Romo are both still smarting from the broken collarbone of 2010 and the rib issue of 2011. Both do not want Romo to be out with an injury, so the offensive options are limited to plays that can keep Romo upright. This means throwing the ball in under 2 seconds. And that means that your deep threats never have time to get deep on their routes.

See, the question of protection and the question of why Dez and Miles are not getting the ball enough are tied together. And that leads me to my biggest concern for the Jason Garrett offense. When I watch the Cowboys play, I think they have 2 types of routes. One is based on protection time and when the Cowboys get it, they can cause a magnificent fireworks show all over the field with deep passes, "dig" routes (or deep-ins) and deep outs (which Tony Romo throws with great strength to the sideline about 15-20 yards down field). The other type of routes we see are for those days - that happen more and more often - when Garrett and Romo are convinced there is no time to throw.

Notice how i said that: "Garrett and Romo are convinced there is no time" is different from "there is no time". I want to stress that because there are games where the Cowboys never test their offensive line in pass protection (Minnesota '10, New England '11) because they think they already know what would happen based on looking at film all week. They may not give up sacks in a given week and the average fan will say that this validates OL performance. "How could they be that bad? They never gave up a sack!"

Well, that is when you come back to the design of the offense. This is where I sit down and watch New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay and try to see if there is a distinct difference between the routes they run and the routes the Cowboys run. I found one that I think I need to confirm with more research, but I want to talk about it here anyway.

It is my belief that Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers can pick you apart inside 2 seconds because their offense calls for way more shallow cross routes by the wide receivers. The Cowboys seem to leave the middle of the field for Jason Witten and the Tight End routes and limit their WR routes of the shallow variety to mostly outside the numbers or right at the numbers on the edges. I see slants, stops, outs, and a number of variations of screens. But, when I see Wes Welker's routes, I see him inside the tackles 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage where a zone would put a linebacker on him. Why don't I see more of that from Austin or Bryant? Is it that Garrett wants Witten not to be crowded with other targets down the middle?

If you want to replicate what teams who have successful offenses are doing, it would seem that you would want to make more routes available by speed players from sideline to sideline with speed guys dragging across the middle. I swear, I never see Dez doing anything but straight ahead off the line at the snap. I think a tweak like this is worth considering to make your weapons more accessible when protection is bad and coverage is shading Bryant and Austin deep. Going back to Brady's Masterpiece, none of his throws were very far downfield. He gets it to players with speed and they do much of the hard work. Good Romo do it? I don't know that the Cowboys have tried that enough.

----------------

Email #3:

Random final score symmetry...
Loss to Jets: 27-24
Win vs Niners: 27-24
Win vs Rams: 34-7
Loss to Eagles: 34-7
John

John, a man after my own heart. Where would we be without statistical oddities in our heads?

Read More

The Reason The Rangers Lost the World Series

Ron Washington not understanding the NL Game (1-5 in NL Parks in WS)?

Nelson Cruz catch attempt in 9th Inning of Game 6?

Rainout of Game 6 when it didn't rain bringing Carpenter Back for Game 7?

Home Plate umpire Jerry Layne Squeezes the Rangers in Game 7?

Nefti Feliz has 2 outs and 2 strikes - also 2 run lead in save situation in Game 6?

Losing the All-Star Game - CJ Wilson to Prince Fielder?

Or something else?

Read More

X's And O's Breakdown - The Eagles Counter Trap

Our mission on Wednesday is to pick a vital moment or moments from the game and discuss the strategy and execution of a given play from the standpoint of both teams. Of course, in a blowout of this magnitude, it would be stretching the truth to call any one scenario "vital", but for the Eagles demolition from this past Sunday, let's take a hard look at the play that made the Cowboys' run defense look silly.

For lack of a better term, we will call it the Philadelphia Counter Trap. We will call it that because it is both a counter and a trap. And the Cowboys defense fell for it on pretty much every occasion it was used. In fact, LeSean McCoy now has 2 of the 3 biggest runs against the Cowboys this season, both on the same night, both on the same exact play. The Cowboys will see this play in their sleep.

The entire idea of the play is to test the anchor of the Cowboys defensive ends and to test the patience of the outside line backers. Again, as we saw on DeMarco Murray's 91-yard Touchdown run last week, so much of running the football is not blocking 11 players. Rather, it is blocking a handful and letting the rest take themselves out of the play with over-pursuit or simply getting caught up in traffic. When it works as well as it did for Philadelphia, the defense is offering little to no resistance. And that is what will really disappoint Dallas after seeing this play run several times. I counted 3 different occasions, with the sum total of 65 yards. 21.7 yards per carry is a rather successful average, right?



So, look at the concept on the chalk board. The offensive line tries to move the defensive front to the right with slant blocks. The key will be the left tackle (71-Peters) and his attempts to run the right defensive end for the Cowboys (97-Hatcher) out of the rushing lane. Then, 94-Ware is unaccounted for - or so he believes - until the Tight End (87-Celek) comes all the way across the formation to put a trap block on Ware. If he gets the block, the play is sprung into the secondary. If he misses it, Ware has a wide open shot at the ball carrier behind the line of scrimmage.

One point of context that might help here is to remind people what we know from data on Rob Ryan in his previous stops. Ryan loves to blitz, but he does not love to blitz when the book says to blitz. He has never been a big 3rd and long blitz guy. Percentages say that his defenses blitz as much as almost anyone (except maybe his brother), but while the entire NFL will blitz you on 3rd and 12, he likes to rush 3 or 4 and drop into coverage. Conversely, when the rest of the NFL enjoys playing straight defense on 1st and 2nd downs, Rob loves to send the blitz in hopes of destroying your early down call. But, this is widely known amongst NFL coaches (as they study way more tape than we do) and sometimes they try to kill Rob with his own poison.

This play in the 1st Quarter is the perfect storm. It is 1st and 10 at the Cowboys 36. The Eagles have "11" personnel in the game, so with 3 WRs, the Cowboys counter with a run-nickel defense (5 DBs). This means that the front of the Cowboys is a run front (because it is 1st Down), but they have 1 less MLB in the game and are running a (3-3). Ryan has countless variations and on pass downs will usually roll with a (2-4) where he has two defensive linemen and 4 linebackers as Ware and Spencer can serve as hybrids or jokers (players that can either be rushing or dropping and the QB has to guess at the snap).

Ryan dials up a big blitz. He is sending just about everyone. Elam is blitzing. Brooking is blitzing from the middle. Scandrick is blitzing. It is a classic "send the kitchen sink" blitz from Ryan. In many scenarios, he will get either a sack or a play behind the line of scrimmage because there are so many bodies flying at the line. But, if the Eagles are able to find a hole, there is nobody behind the line to sweep up the mess. And that is exactly what happens here.

When you watch the video here focus in on the left edge of the Eagles' line. Here, we see Jason Peters push Jason Hatcher all over the field. Hatcher's rap at this point of his career is that he cannot play against the run. The last coaching staff seldom let him prove why he has that rap, but Rob Ryan is trusting him to prove his critics wrong. Well, here we see why Hatcher is likey a run-down "5" technique. He cannot hold his anchor and despite starting the play as the right-most DL, he ends the play furthest on the left. That is never good. He has to stand his ground better. A caved in defensive end combined with the blitz means that any play to that side is going to go for a long gain.

Next, we have to focus on Ware vs Celek. DeMarcus Ware is one of the best in the business, but on this play, he has to do better. Elam is on the blitz and has outside contain, so that means when the trap block comes from Celek, Ware has to win to the inside and fill that gaping hole. It is debatable what happens if he gets there, but if he doesn't get to that gap, McCoy is going to run untouched down the middle of the field. Ware cannot let Celek get the seal. But he did. 34 yard gain for the Eagles.



Look at the hole McCoy gets. Any reader would have gained at least 10 here.

In the 3rd Quarter, the Eagles came back to the play again. The Eagles are going with a "12" personnel look (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) and will stack both tight ends outside Peters at Left Tackle.



The down and distance (2nd and 18) puts the Cowboys in their "pass nickel" with 2 DL (Ratliff and Spears) and 4 LBs (Ware, James, Brooking, and Spencer). Keep in mind, that this play that you can see here, is the exact same concept but flipped to the other side.

Now we need to focus on the Eagles RT, 79-Herremans and watch his work. We also see 26-Elam lined up in pre-snap like he is ready to gobble this play up, but he bails at the last second into the "Cover 2" that the Cowboys ran all night with both safeties really deep in the center to prevent big passes over the top - as Philadelphia loves to do.

Herremans, unlike Peters in the 1st Quarter, has no DE to cave in, so when he slants left with the rest of his line, he goes to the 2nd level and gets Bradie James. If you watch the replay a few times, you will see that Keith Brooking does not get blocked. The Eagles have him unaccounted for, but he is too far to his right (as he is respecting the double TEs formation and sitting on a run left; then the entire OL slants left and he is sure that he is right). And that is the genius of a counter play. Everyone takes a step to the wrong side and a player with the quickness of McCoy is gone to daylight.

Again, the block that makes the play is the trap from the TE coming across the formation. This time, 82-Harbour is going to go get 93-Spencer and cut him out of the play. I believe the Cowboys will be disappointed in Spencer not winning that block to the inside again, but beyond that, you see a rather lethargic group of pursuers who clearly want to get out of town down 27-0 to their bitter rivals.

Two snaps later, the Eagles run a variation of the counter trap a 3rd time for 9 more yards.

As we said when we started this piece, this will be talked about at Valley Ranch by Ryan and his staff, but as the NFL works, when opposing coaches see the ease that the Eagles ran the ball down the Cowboys throat, they will design their own plays that both catch the Cowboys in early down blitzes and also test the over-pursuit of the Cowboys' edge rushers like Ware and Spencer. You can believe the Cowboys will see more of this play.

Read More

Decoding Garrett - Week 7 - Data - Philadelphia

Some weeks you can learn a lot about the week of preparation for a game by simply breaking down every movement of a football game. There are other weeks, like the game in Philadelphia on Sunday Night that you look at the game and realize that you cannot learn much of anything.

We discussed at great length on Monday about the game plan of Rob Ryan that in some respects seemed sound and well conceived before the game began. Sometimes, what looks like a great idea on the chalkboard does not work on the field. The reasons for this discrepancy are multiple; sometimes the coaches are sabotaged by poor execution on the field by their players. Sometimes, the opposing coach anticipates your tactics and has a plan in place to make you look silly. Sometimes, it is both. On those days the scoreboard will usually indicate a result that will not require a long-term examination. When you lose 34-7, you can learn from the film study, but it won't be enjoyable.

And when a defensive game plan is so soundly defeated, that by the time your offense takes its 9th snap they are already behind 21-0, then you never truly know what Jason Garrett had planned for the Eagles. Whatever Garrett was going to try to exploit on that Eagles defense will never see the light of day due to the events of the 1st Quarter. The entire coaching process of building a sound strategy for his offensive unit was wasted because of the ambush the Eagles executed to perfection.

Week after week in the NFL, game plan meetings on Monday and Tuesday are worked out amongst the coaching staff with the players recovering from the last game. The players do come into the facility on Mondays - often for film and treatment - but it isn't a long day for them. Then, Tuesday, they have their mandated off day where the players can get away until open of business on Wednesday.

But, for a coaching staff, they are breaking down the opponent bright and early on Monday morning many times. By Tuesday, they have looked at the last 3 games (minimum) of the opponent closely, and now are discussing what they think they should try to do on Sunday against that foe. That very same day of the week that can be a day of leisure for the players can be one of the longest days of the week for the coaches. By the time they leave the building on Tuesday night, they must all be crystal clear on the plan to beat the Eagles or Seahawks, because when they show up in the morning, they must be able to confidently break down that plan to their troops in positional meetings.

The rest of the week is used to practice and study every detail about how they will deal with their opponent. They look at every scenario - 1st and 10, 2nd and long, 2nd and medium, 2nd and short, 3rd Down, 3rd and short, 2 minute drill, and goal-line offense. Hours in both the film room and on the practice field are spent going through any number of situations that could arise.

But then, you are down 21-0 in 8 offensive snaps. And all of your work, planning, and preparation goes right in the trash can. Garrett never was able to use what they had worked on. The Dallas Cowboys ran 49 offensive snaps on Sunday - easily the lowest total of the season - and were in their "2-minute drill/3rd Down" package for 38 of those snaps.

That package, known as "S11" in this space - Shotgun, 1 RB (Murray), 1 TE (Witten), and 3 WR (Bryant, Robinson, Austin) - took 78% of the snaps on Sunday as the Cowboys were forced to scrap everything they had worked on and simply were going to try to dig back into the game.

When you run 78% of your offense from 1 package, and 80% of your offense from shotgun, there are many effects felt all over the field - and they are almost all bad. First of all, you never put the least bit of uncertainty in the minds of your opponent. They never must respect the run or concern themselves with anything but coverage and pass rush. The Eagles must have spent all week looking at how Tony Fiammetta and the "21" personnel that so dominated the Rams was going to test their undersized defensive front. They must have looked at "12" and "22" and considered the run-blocking of Martellus Bennett on smaller linebackers and tried to counter with different ideas like bring a safety down to build up against a running attack that nearly put 300 yards on St Louis the week before.

But, in the game itself, Bennett and Fiammetta hardly saw the field. Fiammetta played 7 snaps (including 4 of the first 8) and Bennett played 9 snaps (including a game-altering pass route that turned into a costly turnover). Kevin Ogletree played 2 snaps and backup RB Phillip Tanner took 13 snaps as Murray needed to catch his breath on a few occasions.

But, beyond that, it was the same 11 players running the same approximately half-dozen plays for the entire night. 6-8 is the normal number of different plays a team installs for its 2-minute offense. Since Jason Garrett has been the offensive coordinator the Cowboys are exclusively in S11 for their 2-min drill. S11 is certainly the most-used package in his offense, but also has consistently been one of the more inefficient packages as the yards per attempt are painfully low. All the Eagles must do is "pin their ears back" and go get Romo. By the way, the Eagles didn't even have to blitz. Just 4 times in the game did the Eagles send more than their front 4. All that work in picking up blitzes that DeMarco Murray and Phillip Tanner had to prepare for were hardly even seen during the game.

According to our data that goes back every snap since 2008, Dallas has run the "S11" package over 35 times on 6 occasions. They are now 0-6 in those game (39 snaps vs Baltimore '08, 37 at Philadelphia '08, 37 at Green Bay '09, 36 vs New York Giants '10, 48 vs Jacksonville '10, and 38 at Philadelphia '11).

The reasons for the issues with the Cowboys 2-minute drill span this entire 4 season study. The unit has never been able to exploit defenses in the passing game with this strategy. Instead, Tony Romo has demonstrated a great ability to accumulate numbers and wins through the traditional "under-center" offense. His production in this regard is actually quite impressive and compares favorably to many of the best in the sport. However, what must frustrate Romo and Garrett to no end is the way that New England, Indianapolis, New Orleans, Green Bay, and many other teams have devoured the NFL in the shotgun/3WR offenses by spreading out a defense and isolating poor coverage players in space and simply picking them apart. This was the rationale behind assembling a cast of skill players but it has never materialized.

Again that showed on Sunday. The sling-it-around offense is not something they excel at. 38 snaps in S11 with some very talented players on the field, and yet in 34 pass attempts, they are only able to rack up 174 yards. 5.11 yards per attempt in the shotgun is nowhere close to acceptable. In fact, if you subtract the 1 big play from the results - the 70-yard pass to Laurent Robinson for the Touchdown in the 4th Quarter - then you simply get 3.15 yards per attempt for the other 33 plays. Beyond putrid.

At the heart of this issue remains protection issues and faith in the offensive line. In some ways, despite heavy personnel changes along the line (in 2008, the line was Adams, Kosier/Procter, Gurode, Davis, and Colombo), the offensive line has never been properly fixed. That, of course, is easier said than done. Building a sound offensive line that allows those elite offenses to do what they do is never a finished job and requires a front office to hit on many of their moves.

But, that continues to haunt this organization. Don't just look at the sack totals. Look at the play calling that attempts to prevent sacks by getting the ball out of Romo's hand. That issue is obvious every week in 2011, as Garrett and Romo are both still smarting from the broken collarbone of 2010 and the rib issue of 2011. Both do not want Romo to be out with an injury, so the offensive options are limited to plays that can keep Romo upright. This means throwing the ball in under 2 seconds. And that means that your deep threats never have time to get deep on their routes.

One crack in the foundation makes the whole house crumble.

Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.

--------------------

Data from Week 5

SHOTGUN SNAPS-
We track this because Garrett wants a balanced offense. If you are in shotgun, you pass the ball about 85% of the time. So, too much shotgun means that you are getting away from the quest for balance. It also can mean that you have little faith in your OL and want your QB to have a chance. After the Week 7 demolition in Philadelphia, it can certainly suggest you were behind by 21 points in the blink of an eye.

Wk 1 - NYJ: 24/66

Wk 2 - SF: 32/66

Wk 3 - Wash: 27/62

Wk 4 - Det: 29/75

Wk 5 - NE 31/67

Wk 6 - StL 10/60

Wk 7 - Phi 39/49


Total - 192/444 43.2%

=====


Here is the Game Data from Week 7:

Run-Pass	10-39
1st Down Run-Pass	6-14
2nd Down Avg Distance to Go	9.88
2nd Down Run-Pass	3-14
3rd Down Avg Distance to Go	8.60
3rd Down Run-Pass	1-9
3rd Down Conversions	3-10, 30%

HTML Tables

Drive Starters - 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. On Sunday, the Cowboys ran the ball because they were running the ball with great effectiveness:

Wk 1-At New York Jets: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass

Wk 2-At San Francisco: 10 Drives - 4 Run/6 Pass

Wk 3-Washington: 11 Drives - 5 Run/6 Pass

Wk 4-Detroit: 14 Drives - 7 Run/7 Pass

Wk 5-At New England: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass

Wk 6-St Louis: 11 Drives - 8 Run/3 Pass

Wk 9-At Philadelphia - 9 Drives - 2 Run/7 Pass


Total: 79 Drives - 35 Run/44 Pass 44% Run


Here is the breakdown by groupings:

As you can see, in a game like this last one, there isn't much anyone can learn. From a coaching staff to a fan who wants to study this stuff, the Eagles game is just a mess.

Totals by Personnel Groups:

Package	Plays Run	Yards	Run	Pass
11	1	11	0-0	1-11
12	3	4	1-4	2-0
13	0	0	0-0	0-0
21	1	-7	0-0	1--7
22	5	31	5-31	0-0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0
S01	0	0	0-0	0-0
S02	1	0	0-0	1-0
S11	38	227	4-51	34-176
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0
Knee	0	0	0-0	0-0
Totals	49	266	10-86	39-180

Table Tutorial

Here, everything is the same, except we are only looking at 3rd and 4th Downs to see how they convert in the money situations. Again, the Cowboys conversion rate was simply not good enough.

Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:

Package	Plays	Yards	Run	Pass	FD/TD
11	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
21	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
22	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
23	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S02	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
S11	12	51	1-15	11-36	4/0
S12	0	0	0-0	0-0	0/0
Totals	12	51	1-15	11-36	4/0

Table Tutorial

The Rams game threw off our sample with great results in so many departments. Now, the Eagles game balances that out with bad numbers in pretty much every regard possible. One must imagine that neither game represents a 16 game reality. They are neither that good or that bad.

As they prepare for Seattle, I assume the Seahawks coaches will hardly even look at the Eagles/Cowboys film, either. But, it will be important for the Cowboys to get back to manageable down and distances and even more importantly, a manageable scoreboard. There isn't a coordinator in the world that can do what he wants to do when he is behind 21-0 8 snaps into the game.

Tomorrow, let's break down a few impact plays with discussions of X's and O's. And please email me at Sturm1310@aol.com if you have questions that I may clarify in an upcoming email blog.

Read More