| Round | Pick | Overall - (Approx) |
| Rd 1 | #18 | #18 |
| Rd 2 | #19 | #51 |
| Rd 3 | #18 | #82 |
| Rd 4 | #19 | #115 |
| Rd 5 | #18 | #146 |
| Rd 6 | #19 | #179 |
| Rd 7 | #18 | #220 - Traded to Miami for Ryan Cook |
Thursday, 10 January 2013
Wednesday, 9 January 2013
Yogi Berra supposedly once told us, "it's tough to make predictions; especially about the future."
So, I take solace in that modern-day philosopher when I attempt to predict what is going to happen next in the Jerry Jones empire of football. There is no predicting what he will do, and when he starts making moves, conventional thinking or consensus should likely just be ignored. There is no point in playing this game.
Yet, last week, I was ready to try to interpret the "uncomfortable change" that was around the corner according to an irate Jones a few days after the failure in Washington.
I was pretty sure it would be a new play-caller on offense. But, a change in the coach running the defense? Here is what I wrote about it (please note that I felt the conversation barely needed to happen given that a long-winded guy only used one paragraph for the entire discussion):
Until yesterday when Ryan was fired. That makes Skip Peete, the Running Backs coach since 2007, on Monday and Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator since 2011, on Tuesday.
We can only imagine what Wednesday brings us.
And to some, there is the response of "Good. It is about time Jerry makes some sweeping changes around there." To which I say that changing out a RBs coach would change nearly nothing about the offense that doesn't care to run anyway, and changing out Rob Ryan is simply moving someone out who had no Cowboys-equity to begin with - and was only hired begrudgingly 2 seasons ago after the worst defensive season in Cowboys history.
That is not changing anything about the systematic ills that continue to plague this proud organization.
What it sounds like to me, for different reasons, is that the Cowboys likely let two guys go who did not necessarily do anything fireable in a sense of coaching strategy. Rather, to either freshen things up or to change philosophically, the two men were fired so that we could "go in a different direction".
Seriously, if anyone was hit harder than Rob Ryan from an injury standpoint (Lee, Carter, Ratliff, Coleman, Church), it might be the guy in charge of running backs (DeMarco Murray missed a huge chunk of the year). To fire them under the pretense of under-performance is flat-out silly.
So, is there issues with factions in the coaching staff? Well, let me say that this is my biggest hot-button issue with Jerry Jones (once we accept that he has given himself a life-time term as the team's general manager), the idea that a head coach has somewhere between little and nothing to do with who is on his staff.
You have to understand how difficult this makes this job. A head coach, no matter who he is, needs and must receive unconditional loyalty from his coaching staff. When that doesn't happen - when a coach undercuts him to the players or to other assistants or even the public - we have major issues. We have a powerless head coach which is 100% the opposite way of how the legendary successful coaches have always operated. This is why their staff is made up of people they generally know or trust and one reason why coaching is thought of internally as an honorable occupation with a strict code of ethics that you are loyal to the man who gave you the opportunity.
And this is why the Cowboys have it all wrong.
You don't hire Jason Garrett to be your offensive coordinator when you have not hired a head coach yet. And that is what Jones did in 2007. You don't hire a head coach and tell him who is assistants are. And that is something Jones has done with nearly every coach since Jimmy left with the exception of Bill Parcells - who assumed many coaches, but at least had a little say in that matter.
And, if you are Jason Garrett, and you are being made head coach, you cannot take assistants from the last regime unless you believe you have their 100% loyalty. And sometimes that is difficult. Sometimes, they don't have loyalty to you because they were an equal with you years ago, and think that perhaps they deserve to have your job - but perhaps they weren't the owner's pet. Regardless, if you name your own staff, you aren't naming guys who you aren't sure would "buy in" to what you are selling to your players, which should be an unconditional commitment to the same goal.
And if you don't have that unconditional commitment to make the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys Super Bowl champions, then you shouldn't be on his staff. Said another way, if you think you are a better candidate to be your team's coach than the coach himself, you have to know how to keep that to yourself or there will always be fractures in the organization and most obviously in the locker-room.
That is why 2008 was such a disaster. Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and the wide receivers are having "keeping it real Thursdays" with their position coach Ray Sherman. Inside these meetings, there reportedly are unflattering things being said about the offensive coordinator, the quarterback, and the tight end - who all happen to be too friendly according to Owens and company. This friendliness, in their minds, is leading to decisions made on the football field that rewards friends with footballs. And before long, we have half of the offense accusing the other half of a friendship organization and it leads to lack of unity and continuity. All the while, the head coach, Wade Phillips, was presiding over the circus by acting like it wasn't happening.
And if that controversy in 2008 didn't teach Jerry that a staff must all have each-other's backs - and therefore a head coach better be able to name his entire staff with guys he trusts and that will respect and fear him, then nothing will.
And guess what. Nothing will.
This is not meant to be a love-letter to the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys. I am certainly not a full believer in his regime (can you have a regime if you don't have the power to name your own coaching staff?), although I believe he has some characteristics that intrigue me. But, rather, on this day where we think 2 coaches just got fired for issues that cannot be based on their 2012 on-field performance - they had no chance of success with the injury cards they were dealt - I continue to wonder if this is an effort to get the coaching staff all on the same Garrett-led page.
What else could it be?
Some will say that the Cowboys just wanted to move to the 4-3. And maybe that is all it is. But, if you read this column, you know that I have been saying they have been running a modified 4-3 for Ryan's entire run here. At least half of the game every week is either in an actual 4-3 (nickel defense on 3rd Downs and other passing scenarios) or a modified 3-4 where Ware rushes 88% of the time getting him defined as a DE in a 4-3 defense and the front 3 is just a DE and 2 DTs.
That is why I am somewhat amused by the universal freak-out about their personnel in a supposed change to the 4-3. Ware and Anthony Spencer are your defensive ends - just like they were at Troy and Purdue. Jason Hatcher and Jay Ratliff would be your ideal defensive tackles - although, who knows about Ratliff anymore. Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore could play either in a depth rotation, and you were going to focus on DL in the draft anyway.
Linebackers are easy given your talent base already. Sean Lee is your middle linebacker (Mic), and Bruce Carter would look to be a fantastic weak side LB (Will). The strong side linebacker (Sam) may not be on your roster or it could be Alex Albright. But, as you can see, you have strong personnel that could be made stronger with upgrades, of course, but is not in dire straits as it is.
I say it has to be that the long-haired member of the most abrasive family in football likely showed his abrasive side at one point or another in this incredibly high-stress 2012 season. And when he does, he appears to have a tongue that might not always regulate itself well. Was it his personality that got him fired? I have no idea, but since people want a guess, that is where I am looking. Otherwise, you cannot ask a guy to coach half the year with street free agents comprising his defense and then fire him when things don't work out. This simply has to be bigger than that.
And given that I think Ryan has been running what amounts to a 4-3 anyway, the idea that he couldn't help usher in the new scheme is a bit far-fetched, too.
With Peete, I have spent less time thinking about it, other than to say that A) he goes back to 2007 with Garrett and fresh looks at this offense should not be discounted and B) there are a lot of fractured relationships from anyone around in 2008 when everything went wrong. If people want to make this an argument of which guy should go, a RB's coach or a head coach, then you need your head examined. If he is your head coach, then you allow him to change out whatever he wishes on his staff to tinker with what is clearly broken. I am sure Peete will be fine and working again whenever he wants, but I don't have the slightest issue with changes being made to the staff.
And that is why I wonder if more changes are coming. The play-calling position still seems up for grabs - Norv is still a wildcard as are several other interesting names. And we haven't even discussed the personnel department that has had about as much stability over the last 15 years as any football front-office in the league. I know the GM and his family are safe, but there are many sets of eyeballs with scouts and personnel types in the organization that have been there a long-time. I imagine Jerry realizes his last few drafts have been some of his best, but if he wants discomfort in that building, who knows what he has planned?
This team is never short of story-lines, and maybe this is the year that Jason Garrett gets full control of his coaching staff.
But, I highly doubt it.
If there is one change we can bet against, it is the idea that Jerry will ever truly change his ways. You can't predict much about the man, except for the idea that he will still be doing things his way for many years to come and there is nothing you can do about it.
So what changes will truly matter if the biggest change doesn't happen? Well, that is tough to predict. But, the outcomes might not be as difficult to forecast.
So, I take solace in that modern-day philosopher when I attempt to predict what is going to happen next in the Jerry Jones empire of football. There is no predicting what he will do, and when he starts making moves, conventional thinking or consensus should likely just be ignored. There is no point in playing this game.
Yet, last week, I was ready to try to interpret the "uncomfortable change" that was around the corner according to an irate Jones a few days after the failure in Washington.
I was pretty sure it would be a new play-caller on offense. But, a change in the coach running the defense? Here is what I wrote about it (please note that I felt the conversation barely needed to happen given that a long-winded guy only used one paragraph for the entire discussion):
I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan. I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew. In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners. They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.So, that was that. Done and dusted.
Until yesterday when Ryan was fired. That makes Skip Peete, the Running Backs coach since 2007, on Monday and Rob Ryan, the defensive coordinator since 2011, on Tuesday.
We can only imagine what Wednesday brings us.
And to some, there is the response of "Good. It is about time Jerry makes some sweeping changes around there." To which I say that changing out a RBs coach would change nearly nothing about the offense that doesn't care to run anyway, and changing out Rob Ryan is simply moving someone out who had no Cowboys-equity to begin with - and was only hired begrudgingly 2 seasons ago after the worst defensive season in Cowboys history.
That is not changing anything about the systematic ills that continue to plague this proud organization.
What it sounds like to me, for different reasons, is that the Cowboys likely let two guys go who did not necessarily do anything fireable in a sense of coaching strategy. Rather, to either freshen things up or to change philosophically, the two men were fired so that we could "go in a different direction".
Seriously, if anyone was hit harder than Rob Ryan from an injury standpoint (Lee, Carter, Ratliff, Coleman, Church), it might be the guy in charge of running backs (DeMarco Murray missed a huge chunk of the year). To fire them under the pretense of under-performance is flat-out silly.
So, is there issues with factions in the coaching staff? Well, let me say that this is my biggest hot-button issue with Jerry Jones (once we accept that he has given himself a life-time term as the team's general manager), the idea that a head coach has somewhere between little and nothing to do with who is on his staff.
You have to understand how difficult this makes this job. A head coach, no matter who he is, needs and must receive unconditional loyalty from his coaching staff. When that doesn't happen - when a coach undercuts him to the players or to other assistants or even the public - we have major issues. We have a powerless head coach which is 100% the opposite way of how the legendary successful coaches have always operated. This is why their staff is made up of people they generally know or trust and one reason why coaching is thought of internally as an honorable occupation with a strict code of ethics that you are loyal to the man who gave you the opportunity.
And this is why the Cowboys have it all wrong.
You don't hire Jason Garrett to be your offensive coordinator when you have not hired a head coach yet. And that is what Jones did in 2007. You don't hire a head coach and tell him who is assistants are. And that is something Jones has done with nearly every coach since Jimmy left with the exception of Bill Parcells - who assumed many coaches, but at least had a little say in that matter.
And, if you are Jason Garrett, and you are being made head coach, you cannot take assistants from the last regime unless you believe you have their 100% loyalty. And sometimes that is difficult. Sometimes, they don't have loyalty to you because they were an equal with you years ago, and think that perhaps they deserve to have your job - but perhaps they weren't the owner's pet. Regardless, if you name your own staff, you aren't naming guys who you aren't sure would "buy in" to what you are selling to your players, which should be an unconditional commitment to the same goal.
And if you don't have that unconditional commitment to make the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys Super Bowl champions, then you shouldn't be on his staff. Said another way, if you think you are a better candidate to be your team's coach than the coach himself, you have to know how to keep that to yourself or there will always be fractures in the organization and most obviously in the locker-room.
That is why 2008 was such a disaster. Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and the wide receivers are having "keeping it real Thursdays" with their position coach Ray Sherman. Inside these meetings, there reportedly are unflattering things being said about the offensive coordinator, the quarterback, and the tight end - who all happen to be too friendly according to Owens and company. This friendliness, in their minds, is leading to decisions made on the football field that rewards friends with footballs. And before long, we have half of the offense accusing the other half of a friendship organization and it leads to lack of unity and continuity. All the while, the head coach, Wade Phillips, was presiding over the circus by acting like it wasn't happening.
And if that controversy in 2008 didn't teach Jerry that a staff must all have each-other's backs - and therefore a head coach better be able to name his entire staff with guys he trusts and that will respect and fear him, then nothing will.
And guess what. Nothing will.
This is not meant to be a love-letter to the Jason Garrett-led Cowboys. I am certainly not a full believer in his regime (can you have a regime if you don't have the power to name your own coaching staff?), although I believe he has some characteristics that intrigue me. But, rather, on this day where we think 2 coaches just got fired for issues that cannot be based on their 2012 on-field performance - they had no chance of success with the injury cards they were dealt - I continue to wonder if this is an effort to get the coaching staff all on the same Garrett-led page.
What else could it be?
Some will say that the Cowboys just wanted to move to the 4-3. And maybe that is all it is. But, if you read this column, you know that I have been saying they have been running a modified 4-3 for Ryan's entire run here. At least half of the game every week is either in an actual 4-3 (nickel defense on 3rd Downs and other passing scenarios) or a modified 3-4 where Ware rushes 88% of the time getting him defined as a DE in a 4-3 defense and the front 3 is just a DE and 2 DTs.
That is why I am somewhat amused by the universal freak-out about their personnel in a supposed change to the 4-3. Ware and Anthony Spencer are your defensive ends - just like they were at Troy and Purdue. Jason Hatcher and Jay Ratliff would be your ideal defensive tackles - although, who knows about Ratliff anymore. Tyrone Crawford and Sean Lissemore could play either in a depth rotation, and you were going to focus on DL in the draft anyway.
Linebackers are easy given your talent base already. Sean Lee is your middle linebacker (Mic), and Bruce Carter would look to be a fantastic weak side LB (Will). The strong side linebacker (Sam) may not be on your roster or it could be Alex Albright. But, as you can see, you have strong personnel that could be made stronger with upgrades, of course, but is not in dire straits as it is.
I say it has to be that the long-haired member of the most abrasive family in football likely showed his abrasive side at one point or another in this incredibly high-stress 2012 season. And when he does, he appears to have a tongue that might not always regulate itself well. Was it his personality that got him fired? I have no idea, but since people want a guess, that is where I am looking. Otherwise, you cannot ask a guy to coach half the year with street free agents comprising his defense and then fire him when things don't work out. This simply has to be bigger than that.
And given that I think Ryan has been running what amounts to a 4-3 anyway, the idea that he couldn't help usher in the new scheme is a bit far-fetched, too.
With Peete, I have spent less time thinking about it, other than to say that A) he goes back to 2007 with Garrett and fresh looks at this offense should not be discounted and B) there are a lot of fractured relationships from anyone around in 2008 when everything went wrong. If people want to make this an argument of which guy should go, a RB's coach or a head coach, then you need your head examined. If he is your head coach, then you allow him to change out whatever he wishes on his staff to tinker with what is clearly broken. I am sure Peete will be fine and working again whenever he wants, but I don't have the slightest issue with changes being made to the staff.
And that is why I wonder if more changes are coming. The play-calling position still seems up for grabs - Norv is still a wildcard as are several other interesting names. And we haven't even discussed the personnel department that has had about as much stability over the last 15 years as any football front-office in the league. I know the GM and his family are safe, but there are many sets of eyeballs with scouts and personnel types in the organization that have been there a long-time. I imagine Jerry realizes his last few drafts have been some of his best, but if he wants discomfort in that building, who knows what he has planned?
This team is never short of story-lines, and maybe this is the year that Jason Garrett gets full control of his coaching staff.
But, I highly doubt it.
If there is one change we can bet against, it is the idea that Jerry will ever truly change his ways. You can't predict much about the man, except for the idea that he will still be doing things his way for many years to come and there is nothing you can do about it.
So what changes will truly matter if the biggest change doesn't happen? Well, that is tough to predict. But, the outcomes might not be as difficult to forecast.
Tuesday, 8 January 2013
You may remember this little hockey organization in our fair city called the Dallas Stars. They were once a team that held a special place in your heart, many years ago. But now, due to labor idiocy and mediocre results, they are just an organization that you used to know.
Well, they are open for business in January 2013.
The league barely figured out the solution to its labor problems before the final gun (hint: according to most reports, the details in the new CBA are not that far from the details of the proposals back in the 1st week in December. Or said another way, we wasted roughly 5 more weeks because personalities got all hot and bothered in the negotiating room when calm heads could have found this solution 3 weeks before Christmas). Regardless, as of January 19th, we believe the puck will drop in rinks all over North America in a frantic race to the finish line of a truncated season where anything goes.
The Stars went through a drastic overhaul last summer that will continue into this summer. It is indeed a team in a major transition phase that will take plenty of time to be seen completely through. But, they appear to be doing it the right way - mostly on the back of home grown talent that is being acquired, developed, and then will eventually serve as the backbone of the entire operation.
This requires patience, something their fans are tired of being asked for, as the organization tried several other routes for quite a while and had diminishing success through the last decade. This, of course, tests the resolve of a fan base that did not grow up with hockey in their DNA, and it was juxtaposed against a decade with the other American Airlines Center tenant, the Dallas Mavericks, having their most glorious decade ever.
The franchise in shorts ran a sell-out streak to the upper limits of the record books, while the franchise in skates spent the last few years wondering what it would take to get a half-dozen sellouts in the same season.
It has been said plenty of times that Dallas is a "winner's town", but more than anything, they just want to know that you are trying to win. Tom Hicks, for all of his positive qualities that led to the glory years of the late 1990's, had lost his resolve - and maybe his resources - right about the time he was trying to get Alex Rodriguez out of town from his baseball organization. From the last NHL lockout that cancelled an entire season until last December when the keys were handed over, the Stars forced their fans into NHL purgatory and a "Wait, this likely can't get worse" period that lasted too many years.
Enter Tom Gaglardi, a man who does have a magnetic personality and the benefit of the doubt (he is not Tom Hicks), who we know a bit about, but to this point it has just been vague concepts and ideas. Now, we can see what he is all about. Is he looking for a profitable business or does he have the insatiable thirst to own a team that someday holds the Stanley Cup high above his head? We honestly are only speculating to this point, but now, we can finally start to find out.
And honestly, so much really boils down to what Gaglardi wants to see happen. If he is tired of the Stars being mid-tier, then he can start to put things in motion to change that as soon as possible.
It starts with getting a contract done for Jamie Benn that locks up his future in Dallas through his prime. Benn has lifted his level of play to a point where there is no longer nervousness about his quality and his ability to realize his potential, and now it is time to pay him premium dollars to be a premium player in Dallas. Once his name is on the line, then the Stars may proceed with his likeness on billboards and the fans investing in his jersey. Until that contract is done, many of us remain on pins and needles.
From there, we build this depth chart up. You are going to hear plenty about Jaromir Jagr in Dallas from many of the talking heads, but I would like to offer up the words of caution that indicate that he is a complimentary piece at this portion of his career. And, more than likely, he is only here until May. So, while I am interested to see what he has in his bag (remember the Eric Lindros era in Dallas? No?), I am not going to invest mentally in him being much more than a rent-a-legend should have invested. It is nice to see him play here, but don't confuse him with a guy that will be here when this team is at its destination.
This summer has a list of big and important names to deal with, as well, with Michael Ryder (35 goals!), Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow, Jagr, Eric Nystrom, and Mark Fistric all hitting free agency. So, that cap room we were talking about? If you give Benn his big deal, Roy his big deal (roughly Mike Ribeiro's contract), and extend Ryder.... Well, you don't have that much cap room.
And that is where the youth will come in handy. With a quiver full of young talent unlike anything I can remember in a long, long time, the Stars have a chance to make some real strides in the next few seasons by bringing up kids who are not just capable of playing in the league, but capable of being exceptional in the NHL. These are rare qualities by the standards of most Stars kids over the last 15 years. We think the track record of Benn, Loui Eriksson, and James Neal is how it always was, but that is certainly not the case. But, it is how teams in this sport can win in a cap world. Young and hungry kids making a difference on small salaries combined with your well compensated horses that you are riding night after night.
There are going to be some real strengths to this team that we have not seen in a while. For instance, after having one of the historically worst power plays in the modern era, they should be much improved with Roy, Ray Whitney, and Jagr added to Benn, Eriksson, Ryder and Alex Goligoski. If that doesn't get them to the middle of the league at least, there will be some disappointed people in the front office. They should have no problem getting Benn his ice time now that Ribeiro has been dealt.
Meanwhile, we have a weakness or two that are a concern to people like me who seek things to be concerned about; does this team have the quality in its' defense corp to be successful? In other words, when it comes to locking down a lead or clearing the zone that is under attack, do I have a defensive defenseman who scares the opponent? I surely don't think so, and although Sheldon Souray was not able to perform the entire season at the level we might have wished last season, he showed glimpses of what was missing here and I hated to see him go. They still need the alpha-male heading up the group, and I still think that piece is going to have to be developed (Jamie Oleksiak?) or acquired. And they are very tough to acquire.
Also, where is this team's sandpaper, abrasiveness, and intimidation? When you lose Steve Ott, Souray, and Adam Burish in one summer, you hopefully will forgive me for wondering if the Stars are about to put one of the friendlier teams on the ice that we have seen in a long, long time. I fear that sort of team, because opponents often like to take liberties with teams that cannot or do not defend themselves. If my toughest guys are Stephane Robidas or Brenden Morrow at their ages and size, then we may have some issues.
The Stars had a radical summer and like I said, we are looking at a project that is still being assembled. Only at the end of the summer will I have firm grasp on what they are seeing in their vision, but the games start in 10 days. So, we must go with what we got for now.
But, hockey is back and so are the Stars. If it is enough to capitalize on the downturn of the Mavericks remains to be seen. But, we will start to see what it means - including if they still have fans - very soon.
Excellent news for me.
Game on.
Well, they are open for business in January 2013.
The league barely figured out the solution to its labor problems before the final gun (hint: according to most reports, the details in the new CBA are not that far from the details of the proposals back in the 1st week in December. Or said another way, we wasted roughly 5 more weeks because personalities got all hot and bothered in the negotiating room when calm heads could have found this solution 3 weeks before Christmas). Regardless, as of January 19th, we believe the puck will drop in rinks all over North America in a frantic race to the finish line of a truncated season where anything goes.
The Stars went through a drastic overhaul last summer that will continue into this summer. It is indeed a team in a major transition phase that will take plenty of time to be seen completely through. But, they appear to be doing it the right way - mostly on the back of home grown talent that is being acquired, developed, and then will eventually serve as the backbone of the entire operation.
This requires patience, something their fans are tired of being asked for, as the organization tried several other routes for quite a while and had diminishing success through the last decade. This, of course, tests the resolve of a fan base that did not grow up with hockey in their DNA, and it was juxtaposed against a decade with the other American Airlines Center tenant, the Dallas Mavericks, having their most glorious decade ever.
The franchise in shorts ran a sell-out streak to the upper limits of the record books, while the franchise in skates spent the last few years wondering what it would take to get a half-dozen sellouts in the same season.
It has been said plenty of times that Dallas is a "winner's town", but more than anything, they just want to know that you are trying to win. Tom Hicks, for all of his positive qualities that led to the glory years of the late 1990's, had lost his resolve - and maybe his resources - right about the time he was trying to get Alex Rodriguez out of town from his baseball organization. From the last NHL lockout that cancelled an entire season until last December when the keys were handed over, the Stars forced their fans into NHL purgatory and a "Wait, this likely can't get worse" period that lasted too many years.
Enter Tom Gaglardi, a man who does have a magnetic personality and the benefit of the doubt (he is not Tom Hicks), who we know a bit about, but to this point it has just been vague concepts and ideas. Now, we can see what he is all about. Is he looking for a profitable business or does he have the insatiable thirst to own a team that someday holds the Stanley Cup high above his head? We honestly are only speculating to this point, but now, we can finally start to find out.
And honestly, so much really boils down to what Gaglardi wants to see happen. If he is tired of the Stars being mid-tier, then he can start to put things in motion to change that as soon as possible.
It starts with getting a contract done for Jamie Benn that locks up his future in Dallas through his prime. Benn has lifted his level of play to a point where there is no longer nervousness about his quality and his ability to realize his potential, and now it is time to pay him premium dollars to be a premium player in Dallas. Once his name is on the line, then the Stars may proceed with his likeness on billboards and the fans investing in his jersey. Until that contract is done, many of us remain on pins and needles.
From there, we build this depth chart up. You are going to hear plenty about Jaromir Jagr in Dallas from many of the talking heads, but I would like to offer up the words of caution that indicate that he is a complimentary piece at this portion of his career. And, more than likely, he is only here until May. So, while I am interested to see what he has in his bag (remember the Eric Lindros era in Dallas? No?), I am not going to invest mentally in him being much more than a rent-a-legend should have invested. It is nice to see him play here, but don't confuse him with a guy that will be here when this team is at its destination.
This summer has a list of big and important names to deal with, as well, with Michael Ryder (35 goals!), Derek Roy, Brenden Morrow, Jagr, Eric Nystrom, and Mark Fistric all hitting free agency. So, that cap room we were talking about? If you give Benn his big deal, Roy his big deal (roughly Mike Ribeiro's contract), and extend Ryder.... Well, you don't have that much cap room.
And that is where the youth will come in handy. With a quiver full of young talent unlike anything I can remember in a long, long time, the Stars have a chance to make some real strides in the next few seasons by bringing up kids who are not just capable of playing in the league, but capable of being exceptional in the NHL. These are rare qualities by the standards of most Stars kids over the last 15 years. We think the track record of Benn, Loui Eriksson, and James Neal is how it always was, but that is certainly not the case. But, it is how teams in this sport can win in a cap world. Young and hungry kids making a difference on small salaries combined with your well compensated horses that you are riding night after night.
There are going to be some real strengths to this team that we have not seen in a while. For instance, after having one of the historically worst power plays in the modern era, they should be much improved with Roy, Ray Whitney, and Jagr added to Benn, Eriksson, Ryder and Alex Goligoski. If that doesn't get them to the middle of the league at least, there will be some disappointed people in the front office. They should have no problem getting Benn his ice time now that Ribeiro has been dealt.
Meanwhile, we have a weakness or two that are a concern to people like me who seek things to be concerned about; does this team have the quality in its' defense corp to be successful? In other words, when it comes to locking down a lead or clearing the zone that is under attack, do I have a defensive defenseman who scares the opponent? I surely don't think so, and although Sheldon Souray was not able to perform the entire season at the level we might have wished last season, he showed glimpses of what was missing here and I hated to see him go. They still need the alpha-male heading up the group, and I still think that piece is going to have to be developed (Jamie Oleksiak?) or acquired. And they are very tough to acquire.
Also, where is this team's sandpaper, abrasiveness, and intimidation? When you lose Steve Ott, Souray, and Adam Burish in one summer, you hopefully will forgive me for wondering if the Stars are about to put one of the friendlier teams on the ice that we have seen in a long, long time. I fear that sort of team, because opponents often like to take liberties with teams that cannot or do not defend themselves. If my toughest guys are Stephane Robidas or Brenden Morrow at their ages and size, then we may have some issues.
The Stars had a radical summer and like I said, we are looking at a project that is still being assembled. Only at the end of the summer will I have firm grasp on what they are seeing in their vision, but the games start in 10 days. So, we must go with what we got for now.
But, hockey is back and so are the Stars. If it is enough to capitalize on the downturn of the Mavericks remains to be seen. But, we will start to see what it means - including if they still have fans - very soon.
Excellent news for me.
Game on.
Monday, 7 January 2013
This weekend, from a prediction standpoint, was actually a wildcard weekend that went exactly as I expected. I had the Texans, Packers, Ravens, and Seahawks advancing, but surely, some of the details were difficult to anticipate and it all sets up a fantastic divisional round that offers some heavyweight battles that should make next weekend memorable.
In particular, the final game of yesterday was clearly the best game of the four. Washington hosted Seattle in a tight matchup that offered talking points on both sides.
For Seattle, it seemed to demonstrate that although conventional wisdom indicates that they are a team that relies on their home stadium for their success (a premise that although ridiculous is difficult to completely eliminate based on performance) is a nasty, physically-tough team that is ready for a street fight anywhere.
How Seattle managed to sneak under the radar of the NFL these last few years is partly because they do not seem to care what anyone else thinks when it comes to personnel. And, if you follow the NFL for a while, you see that the teams that color within the lines get preferential treatment, while those that do their own work and ignore what the outside says are on their own.
And when I say that, I am talking about the way they have acquired players since Pete Carroll was brought in 36 months ago (and since Carroll named his own GM, John Schneider - a Ted Thompson disciple from Green Bay. If you love the draft, it is rather easy to name the team that has produced the most dismay on draft day from the draft-experts in the studios for the networks. Seattle has constantly been the team that has not used Kiper, McShay, Mayock, or anyone else to cross-check their draft pick homework.
In 2010, you may recall all of the discussion about Seattle taking Earl Thomas over Taylor Mays, including Mays himself blaming his college coach at USC for sabotaging his draft stock. Instead, Carroll took Thomas from Texas and pretty much knocked that pick out of the park and has an elite safety now who plays center field as well as pretty much anyone. Meanwhile, Mays, has had a hard time making it onto the field as a pro.
That 2010 draft brought Seattle Thomas - Free Safety, Russell Okung - Starting LT, Kam Chancellor (with pick #133!) - Strong Safety, Golden Tate - slot receiver, and Anthony McCoy - 2nd tight end.
Then, the next year, the 2011 draft did more of the same. They were laughed at for taking James Carpenter from Alabama in the 1st Round - because the experts did not have a 1st round grade on him. Carpenter is still a project and has spent most of his 2 years hurt as he blew out his ACL in 2011 and remains a question. But, the 2011 draft also gave them John Moffitt, their starting Right Guard for most of the season, KJ Wright - Startling OLB, Kris Durham, and Richard Sherman (Pick 154!) who might be one of the fiercest cornerbacks in the game right now.
So, that is 8 starters from yesterday in just the 2010 and 2011 draft.
But, then comes 2012. Could they do it again?
In the 1st Round they took a pass rusher in Bruce Irvin who nobody thought was worth the gamble that high due to many off-field and on-field question marks. The ridicule after this pick also cited the Carpenter pick and the discussion on TV was that Seattle is reckless in their draft room. But, they trusted their homework and took Irvin who has returned their faith with a bunch of sacks - more than any other rookie. Then, in the 2nd round, they took Bobby Wagner from Utah State to patrol the middle. In the 3rd Round, it was an undersized QB in Russell Wilson from Wisconsin who surely wouldn't start for them all season, right? Wrong again, know-it-alls.
There are other players from the 2012 draft that are helping, too, as rookies, but maybe my favorite story is their 7th round pick, a guy named JR Sweezy. He played DT at NC State one year ago, and the Seahawks drafted him in the 7th round because they wanted to convert him to a guard.
And you know who started at RG for them yesterday? That's right - their 7th round Defensive Tackle. Meanwhile, their starting RT was off the Green Bay practice squad in 2010, and their starting LG was the other McQuistan brother who is on his 4th team since 2006.
So, they have a physically punishing football team and most of their players have been acquired since 2010 when Carroll and Schneider were brought on board.
They have built their entire secondary - you know, the one people are calling the best in football - since then, along with the entire OL that Marshawn Lynch runs behind save for the center, Max Unger who is a hold-over from the 2009 draft.
They have sprinkled in players who other teams did not value that highly, with a few free agent purchases, and low-and-behold, they appear to have a young, promising team for 2012 and beyond.
And the best part? It doesn't seem that they cared what anyone thought about their picks. They did their own work, did not compare notes, did not care about favorable reviews, and believed in their system.
It might not be enough to win the Super Bowl this year, but it is interesting to see a door-mat figure out how to figure it out.
Meanwhile, the Redskins seem to have taken a decidedly different route to the same game yesterday. They appear to have put all of their eggs in the basket of getting a potentially generational talent to their franchise and that is why the moment in the game where Robert Griffin's knee buckled caused most football fans to gasp in horror.
Seldom has a team had so much invested in one player who had also delivered so much already that the investment seemed proper. But, as Cowboys fans know, Griffin has been limp-jogging for most of the last month and despite looking as if he planned on willing his team all of the way to a trophy, reality caught up yesterday at a rather innocuous moment in the contest.
Griffin's knee buckled and all you could consider were the times where a franchise had a prodigy-level talent who was dealing with a health issue that might jeopardize everything and they either pulled the plug completely - like the same city's baseball team did with Stephen Strasburg just this year - or took extreme caution at every turn - like the Dallas Mavericks' coach Don Nelson insisted on back in 2003 when Dirk Nowitzki's knee was the concern.
But, this one was tricky. There were doctor's reports and a player's wishes to sort through. There was the cliche' about this being "the once-in-a-lifetime chance" with a divisional title and a home playoff game to consider. There was the painted dirt that the Redskins call a playing surface this late in the year. And there was a roster that only boasted another rookie QB.
Mike Shanahan had built his entire scheme around this singular talent, so he trusted his eyes and the words of his QB and went for it. And it failed. And now, people want answers for how he could be so reckless with his player at just the wrong time.
Shanahan said he trusted his gut and his QB's wishes. They were only in that spot because RG3 got them there, so you can understand the position. It is easy to sit here and say that this is too reckless in this situation, but at the core of all of this is that this sport is based on the warrior mentality this time of year to play through injuries and drag your body out there for your team.
It didn't work this time, and who knows now what this does to Griffin's long term potential, but you can now see how complex this issue is. The medical people said he passed the tests, but then hedge their bets by saying they were still unsure or nervous about the outcome. That hardly seems definitive except in that they were clearly covering their own rear ends.
I hope that one of the most exciting players to arrive in the NFL recovers well and that we get to see his career as it was promised, but, I don't feel 2nd-guessing the Redskins decision making process on this particular situation is anything more than outcome-based logic. Because he got hurt, it looks like a bad decision. But, since time travel is not available to any of us, one has a hard time fairly saying that the Redskins should have ignored their QB's wishes. It was only because of his courage last week that they were hosting this game to begin with.
Great stuff in Washington in a game that eliminates the entire NFC East from the playoffs. And now, we try to come to grips with there being just 7 games left in the season.
Friday, 4 January 2013
Examining the final Cowboys defeat of the season is no fun, given that they were a rag-tag bunch hanging on for dear life with those spared the season-ending injury. Almost no contenders can say that they had a unit like the Cowboys defense that had the combination of so many players hurt and so many others in the line-up who were not even on the roster 2 months ago.
This, of course, is part bad luck - which we all like to point at - and part of their own doing. The part of your own doing would be the difference between the Cowboys in 2012 and other "good franchises".
Everyone gets injuries. That is true. But, as you look at the Cowboys opening day roster, they had 53 players just like everyone else. The issues, obviously, all along have been the assertion that the Cowboys do not have much quality depth.
That is speculation and chatter until it is tested. When Sean Lee gets hurt, is the fix on the roster? Barry Church? Bruce Carter? Kenyon Coleman? When they all get hurt, can you fill their spots with guys who made your team?
And that is where the Cowboys clearly still lack the quality to compete as the best teams. I have cited the roster depth of a team like San Francisco as an example of a perfect situation. They lose a WR late in the season to a bad injury, and in steps their 1st round pick. They lose a RB, and in steps their 2nd round pick. Their top 2 picks weren't even playing - they were waiting their turn.
Quality depth.
The opposite is what we had late in the season on the Cowboys depth chart. Guys on the field who were just signed, but now forced to play significant roles in a huge game. As Alfred Morris is running 32 yards for a touchdown, there is Brady Poppinga - nearly flat on his back - being blocked out of the way. Poppinga was just signed after 4th round pick Kyle Wilber could not play inside. Dan Conner was limited. Ernie Sims was not the answer. Alex Albright played some. Orie Lemon was hurt. Caleb McSurdy was gone in camp. They never were covered in case injury hit.
Same for safety; Matt Johnson was picked to solidify. Brodney Pool was signed to start. Danny McCray was not capable of playing safety it was proven. Mario Butler didn't work out. Mana Silva was a short term idea. Charlie Peprah was brought in. Eric Frampton was signed.
If you have a proper roster, you don't have to play 5 or 6 guys who didn't break camp in significant spots. They might be on your roster as deep reserves, but only the thin teams have to find street free agents and put them right on the field. And that is where the Cowboys see how far they must go in roster building.
It sounds like some years there is just no solution to injuries. And then you read that the Packers won the Super Bowl 2 seasons back with 16 players on injured reserve including many starters. But, it takes a strong roster that is not top-heavy. And that is something for the General Manager to consider moving forward.
Every roster spot matters. Every situation must have a fix ready. And that is why people point at spots on the roster that are not wisely used and accuse Jerry Jones of being wasteful and irresponsible with roster spots 41-53. Because in December, you are going to need those guys to play. But, in Dallas, many of them don't play, and you bring street free agents in and they immediately pass all of the reserves and go right to the field.
=====
When looking at Washington's big demolition of what was left of the Cowboys offense, we are reminded of something that was surely not Jones' fault - the very poor decision Josh Brent made about a month ago.
In breaking down the film, as Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin sliced and diced the Cowboys defense, I kept coming back to the feeling that if Brent was out there, this would not have been nearly as bad. Jay Raliff has been hurt and when Brent was filling in, interior runs were not happening nearly as much. He was having a fantastic year against the run.
But, with Ratliff and Brent unavailable, the Cowboys were getting by with Sean Lissemore and Tyrone Crawford playing over the center. This is a poor plan, but the best the Cowboys could hope for. And they battled, but were over-run by the constant combo-blocks from the Center-Guard in Washington. Against New Orleans and Pittsburgh, this was not as evident as neither launched much of a ground attack.
But, that bill became due on Sunday night. The interior getting blown off the ball forced the linebackers to crash down to protect the middle. And then when Ware and Spencer crashed down, there was no cover at the flanks and you saw the damage done by the outside runs. It was a total disaster, and I feel that Josh Brent could have changed plenty of that.
We can blame the Cowboys for lack of depth, but it is tough to criticize when they lose both the starter and his reserve during the year. 2 injuries at the same spot is too much to over-come generally.
=====
All season long, we have shown you Tony Romo throw charts. This week, I had Tim draw up a few for RG3. I thought it would be revealing to show how much the Redskins accomplished, despite how little he had to throw downfield. Blue is complete, Red is incomplete.
1st Half for RG 3:
2nd Half throws for RG3:
Amazing, but that performance actually won the game.
SPLASH PLAYS
Let's take a look at the "Splash Plays" from Week 16 at the Redskins:
Splash Plays are key impact plays from the defense. Usually, they are obvious, but there are some that blur the line. I have listed time and play of each one for those who want to double check my work.
For more, read a detailed explanation of this study here: What is a Splash Play?
WEEK 16 at Washington
Very little resistance on Sunday night, but here is what we saw. And typically, they were led by Anthony Spencer. DeMarcus Ware was just not fit enough to play, it appears. As he injured his arm against the Bengals and kept playing, but was not nearly the same player.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Player | Play |
| 1-14:39 | 1/10/O15 | Lissemore | Run Stuff |
| 1-7:35 | 3/2/O19 | Spencer | 3rd Down Stop |
| 1-2:47 | 1/10/O36 | Peprah | Pass Defended |
| 3-8:25 | 1/10/O18 | Crawford | Run Stuff |
| 3-4:25 | 1/10/D20 | Albright | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-12:49 | 1/10/O40 | Spencer | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-7:35 | 2/7/O27 | Spencer | Tackle For Loss |
| 4-4:10 | 2/8/D37 | Sims | Pass Defended |
| 4-4:01 | 3/8/D37 | Spencer | Sack |
Here are the final season totals for 2012 and Plays Per Splash:
| Player | Splashes | Snaps | P.P.S. |
| Spencer | 38 | 872 | 22.9 |
| Ware | 30 | 896 | 29.8 |
| Hatcher | 16.5 | 784 | 47.5 |
| Claiborne | 16 | 909 | 56.8 |
| Carter | 15 | 625 | 41.6 |
| Carr | 13 | 1043 | 69.5 |
| Lee | 10 | 331 | 33.1 |
| Brent | 9.5 | 320 | 33.7 |
| Butler | 8 | 300 | 37.5 |
| Ratliff | 6 | 269 | 44.8 |
| McCray | 6 | 658 | 109.6 |
| Sensabaugh | 6 | 981 | 163.5 |
| Spears | 6 | 394 | 65.6 |
| Scandrick | 5 | 339 | 67.8 |
| Lissemore | 5 | 413 | 82.6 |
| Player | Splashes |
| Conner | 3 |
| Peprah | 3 |
| Albright | 3 |
| Jenkins | 2 |
| Coleman - OUT | 2 |
| Frampton | 2 |
| Moore | 2 |
| Lewis - GONE | 1 |
| Church - OUT | 1 |
| Schaefering | 1 |
| Coe | 1 |
| Poppinga | 1 |
| Sims | 1 |
| Team Total | 218 |
===========
BLITZING REPORT
The blitz played almost no role on Sunday. The Redskins hardly passed and the Cowboys clearly do not want to blitz Griffin. In 2 games, they have blitzed 7 times in 49 attempts.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 4-10:41 | 1/10/D32 | A Morris +32 yards, TD | -- |
| 3-5:51 | 1/10/O40 | A Morris, +22 yards | -- |
One blitz did lead to the crucial sack late. The Cowboys sent pressure 4 times all game, and all of them were in the 4th Quarter.
| Q-Time | D/D/Yd | Play | Rushers |
| 4-4:01 | 3/8/D37 | Spencer Sacks Griffin | 5 |
Pass Rushers Against New Orleans - 52 pass rush/blitz situations:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 Rush | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 Rush | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | 5 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 19 |
And, here are the full season numbers to date:
| Pass Rushers | 1st D | 2nd D | 3rd D | 4th D | Total |
| 3 Rush | 22 - 12% | 30 - 15% | 35 - 21% | 1- 12% | 88 - 16% |
| 4 Rush | 123 - 66% | 114 - 59% | 87 - 53% | 5 - 62% | 329 - 60% |
| 5 Rush | 37 - 20% | 43 - 22% | 32 - 19% | 2 - 25% | 114 - 21% |
| 6 Rush | 5 - 2% | 6 - 3% | 9 - 5% | 0 | 20 - 4% |
| Totals | 187 | 193 | 163 | 8 | 551 |
The game by game pressure numbers:
Wk 1 - NYG: 11/37 - 30%Wk 2 - SEA: 10/26 - 38%
Wk 3 - TB: 12/32 - 37%
Wk 4 - CHI: 12/27 - 44%
Wk 5 - BAL: 10/27 - 37%
Wk 6 - CAR: 9/39 - 23%
Wk 7 - NYG: 2/31 - 6%
Wk 8 - ATL: 5/37 - 14%
Wk 9 - PHI: 7/43 - 16%
Wk 10 - CLE: 4/36 - 11%
Wk 11 - WAS 3/30 - 10%
Wk 12 - PHI 6/36 - 16%
Wk 13 - CIN 11/37 - 30%
Wk 14 - PIT 13/42 - 31%
Wk 15 - NO 15/52 - 29%
Wk 16 - WAS 4/19 - 21%
In the end, the team just collapsed defensively due to personnel issues - some were bad luck and some revealed poor roster construction.
But, there is a belief that this defense is close when they get all of their pieces back. But, that success will hinge on finding quality reserves in a hurry, because injuries will happen every year in this violent sport.
Thursday, 3 January 2013
I realize that today is normally reserved for the defensive breakdowns, but I have decided to hold off until tomorrow (what is the rush, really, with the next game in about 9 months?) so that we may discuss the Cowboys "news of the day" and speak on something I am being asked quite a bit about.
Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.
So, what could this mean? What is he talking about? Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.
From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.
Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch? 40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving. He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.
I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect. That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys. Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.
There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome. I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.
Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns? It didn't seem like it earlier in the season. It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss. And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.
But, enough about that. Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program. I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet. There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand. I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.
I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan. I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew. In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners. They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.
Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense. I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has. You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.
6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them. This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.
This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has. In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received. The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB. When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything. The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything. If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do. Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football. But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.
Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me. At least one of them. But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.
1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either. Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit. Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time. And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week. Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.
2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now. Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock. And maybe that is worth pursuing. I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.
3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make. And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong. I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare. Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook. That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways. Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited. Think about this: Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun. Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012. The sport is seen differently than it used to be.
Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes. I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.
So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it. I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line. I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.
In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them. Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.
Change is good sometimes in the NFL. Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on. I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off. And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.
Do I have a list of names in mind? No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name. Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.
I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.
I am fine with trying something new.
Yesterday, on his radio show Jerry Jones offered the following quote: "I can assure our fans this, that it's going to be very uncomfortable from my standpoint, it's going to be very uncomfortable for the next few weeks and months at Valley Ranch," Jones told KRLD FM.
So, what could this mean? What is he talking about? Certainly, given that every team has to change every year in the NFL with free agency and the draft, we are left to assume that he is exercising his right to be a blowhard or that he has big changes in a "non-player" sort of way.
From there, we can assume he has no plans on relieving himself as general manager, and we will work our way down the organizational depth chart.
Is it time for new head coach at Valley Ranch? 40 games into his tenure for the Dallas Cowboys, Jason Garrett is 21-19 as head coach, which is a record that must be considered roughly break-even from a standpoint of rating that sort of record either under-performing or over-achieving. He took over a team that appeared to possess 8-8 talent and has kept them at roughly that level while turning over quite a bit of the roster.
I would not argue hard against the firing of Jason Garrett provided it was to turn the team over to a certain type of coach that could be seen as more of an organizational architect. That could be defined a number of ways, so let me clearly explain that to me that is the top tier of expensive, leverage-possessing coaches who could demand and receive a certain level of authority that is rarely afforded to a coach of the Cowboys. Since Jimmy Johnson, this was only given to Bill Parcells - a man who did not take over every responsibility when he was here, but he had the guts to say whatever was on his mind and only deferred to his boss when he wanted to.
There is no tangible value on a coach who is clearly the leader of an organization, but the issues that persist when one does not reside here are bothersome. I think Jason Garrett gets the most authority of anyone hand-picked by Jerry Jones, but that is way different than someone who arrives under the condition that he is in charge.
Did Jason Garrett have the right to take Felix Jones off of kick returns and Dez off of punt returns? It didn't seem like it earlier in the season. It looked like he had to wait until he could sell it to his boss. And to me, that is really screwed up if a head coach has to campaign for things that basic to coaching a team.
But, enough about that. Assuming that there are no plans to hire an organizational architect to replace Jason Garrett, I am fine with Garrett remaining here to continue his rebuild of this program. I do think progress is being made, but at 8-8, the results haven't shown up yet. There is a delicate balance with growing the program while understanding the urgency that the ages of Tony Romo, Jason Witten, and DeMarcus Ware demand. I refuse to discuss a window and whether it is open or not, but if you have a group of exceptional players who are all beyond their 30th birthdays then time is short.
I also don't think I would campaign for a dismissal of Rob Ryan. I believe in what he likes to do and although nobody wants to hear this, I still don't think we have much of an idea of what he would like to do with this crew. In 2011, he had a very poor personnel situation at corner and in 2012, he enjoyed about a month of Sean Lee and Bruce Carter together with a legit pair of corners. They need health and a better defensive line group, but this defense is not far away if you ask me.
Which now brings the conversation to the idea of play-calling and the coordination of the offense. I think Jason Garrett is a bright offensive mind, but I also believe that he has had more than enough time to sort this offense better than he has. You could make the case that he was sabotaged by a poor personnel offseason as it pertains to the offensive line, but 6 years is a long time.
6 years for a play-caller and a QB to work together is a very rare luxury in the NFL, generally afforded to iconic offenses that are clearly not broken so there is no need to fix them. This offense, on the other hand, is never confused for flawless, and looks more problematic every year, despite continuity at QB and near perfect health all season on the unit.
This coordinator does not value the running game, and he never has. In his 6 years running this offense, the team has never ranked higher than 15th in rushing attempts and has also become a team that almost never wins the battle at the line of scrimmage. Physical play is not emphasized and therefore it is not received. The Cowboys set a franchise low for rushing yards in a season in 2012 and instead put everything on the shoulders of their passing game and their QB. When you consider the physical style of the offensive line in San Francisco, it in no way resembles what the Cowboys have built, but it demonstrates how you build a team that does not count on its Quarterback to accomplish everything. The offensive lines in New Orleans or Green Bay do not scare anyone, but they seem to be happy to rely on their QB for everything. If we have decided that Romo is not of the elite quality of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees, then perhaps you cannot build your team like they do. Perhaps, occasionally, you want to win a game with a physical brand of football. But, Jason Garrett is not thinking that way.
Which is why the Norv Turner idea does not appeal to me. At least one of them. But, since so many people have asked my views on Norv and why I don't seem as interested in him as many others, allow me to detail my thoughts.
1) - Norv Turner does not care to run the ball, either. Well, he of course, coordinated a run-first offense in Dallas 20 years ago, but if you watch San Diego recently, they also appear to fancy themselves a team that passes quite a bit. Now, of course, in the Ladanian Tomlinson years they ran more, but since then it has gone all-passing, all the time. And I realize that passing is what makes this league go around, but Phil Rivers and Tony Romo are good, but not good enough at putting everything on them all week every week. Instead, Romo flourishes when the offense is balanced up and unpredictable, but it seldom is. If I am going to make a change, I would prefer it would be to someone who believes that running the football is more than something you do to run the clock. You do it to send a physical message to both teams that this is going to require some muscle to win today.
2) - The offense would be very similar to what it is now. Maybe I would have more use for the Jason Garrett offense if there was not always so much confusion on blitz-proof hot routes and a constant flirtation with delay of game calls that allows opponents to time their blitzes with 1 second left on the play clock. And maybe that is worth pursuing. I wish there was more use of shallow crossing routes and perimeter screens, but overall, I just wish it looked like the Cowboys were more fluent in their own language.
3) - It is the most "Jerry Jones" decision that Jerry Jones could make. And maybe, I need to get past that and accept that just because it seems like a Jerry Jones move - to reassemble the Jimmy Johnson coaching staff or anything that reminds him of 1992-1995 - doesn't mean it is wrong. I don't think that constantly returning to an era when the Cowboys were successful is a horrible idea, but the similarities of the NFL in 1992 and 2012 are very rare. Back then, the Cowboys seldom turned over personnel groupings and specialized substitutions and frankly, admitted to a very limited playbook. That doesn't mean the same system couldn't work now days, but football has tactically come a long, long ways. Norv has obviously developed plenty since then, but unless he is bringing Troy, Emmitt, and that offensive line with him in a time machine that keeps them all at their ages in 1992, I don't think it gets me too excited. Think about this: Troy Aikman hardly ever used shotgun. Now, the Cowboys used shotgun on 565 snaps in 2012. The sport is seen differently than it used to be.
Now, having said all of that, I am a big believer in the idea that Jason Garrett could use some help and a fresh set of eyes. I don't think that he is great at always looking on top of every decision as he tries to handle play-calling and the multiple responsibilities of being a head coach and an offensive coordinator.
So, if the changes at Valley Ranch mean that somebody new gets to try to make more sense of this offense, I am all for it. I think it might be time for a new coach to have a chance to figure out how to blend Romo's ability with a running game and a more physical offensive line. I am for that, and I am now wondering if it is going to happen.
In fact, I wonder if today or this week, Jerry is meeting with Garrett to discuss how this might work, why it should be tried, and who would be the guy to join them. Perhaps, if Garrett is not open to changes, his own job security might be discussed.
Change is good sometimes in the NFL. Ramming your head against the same walls after coordinator and QB have been together since 2007 is too frustrating to go on. I want to see what might happen if the Cowboys started getting the play in to Romo with enough time to comfortably get the snap off. And to do so at a time where the defense cannot sit on the snap because of its proximity to :00.
Do I have a list of names in mind? No, but this should not be about hiring a recognizable name. Too many brilliant minds in football are young and unproven.
I'm just sure I don't want to see another year where the receiver looks confused on his hot route, Romo is yelling "kill, kill, kill!" with :02 left on the play-clock, and another record is set for lowest rushing yards.
I am fine with trying something new.
Wednesday, 2 January 2013
As we sift through the rubble of another late-season failure, we are constantly reminded that the defense was hit with circumstances that nearly made their tasks impossible by the end of the year. The inside linebackers were different, the safeties were different, and the defensive line was different than what left training camp. Only the 2 outside linebackers and the 2 starting cornerbacks resembled the actual play of August and September.
Meanwhile, there is no such convenient excuses for the offense. The 11 starters who started Week 16 were the exact same 11 players who played the majority of the snaps of the season opener in New York. I say it that way because we all remember Phil Costa took the first 3 snaps of the season at center and then barely played again the rest of the year (he took a total of 126 snaps, Ryan Cook played 837 at center).
Otherwise, it was Romo with Murray and Vickers; Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the main targets; and Smith, Livings, Bernadeau, and Free across the front. They were beat up and the receivers could not finish the game, but 11 of the 11 players from Week 1 were there and ready in Week 16 in Washington.
And, in fairness, the offense played some of its better football late in the season when the defense was holding on for dear life. But that ended in Washington, where the Cowboys had one of their worst offensive performances at just the wrong time.
But, let's be careful how we label this one. Because there is a real difference between the season-view of certain failures and Sunday's failure. Many times this season, the offensive line and the running game betrayed them. Other times, the game plan seemed overly conservative or careful. Still others, there was no pass protection to speak of.
But, in this particular game, the coaches will look at the tape and they will see evidence of things that will drive them absolutely crazy.
For instance, in the volatile running game results that were predictably poor all season, the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness in Washington. Without the aid of only 1 run of over 10 yards, the Cowboys found consistent running in small, but useful chunks all game long. 4.5 yards per carry in a divisional road game was almost too good to be true. It was the 3rd best results of their season (only at New York and at Baltimore were better) and I am quite sure that they all would have signed up for those results before the game started.
Further, the average starting field position of each drive was 2nd best for the season. They was only one other game all season (Tampa Bay) where the Cowboys were given the ball at an average better spot than their own 33 yard line.
They ran the ball well. They "stayed ahead of the chains". They were balanced up and further, they were actually quite efficient on 3rd Downs. Further, they played a team that passed for only 100 yards.
Most weeks, indicators like all of these would point to a Cowboys offense that was healthy and probably had plenty of success. The symptoms point to a game that was probably won.
And almost none of it mattered because they were sabotaged by taking a -3 in the turnover margin. And of those 3 picks, almost all of the blame of the throws must go to the Quarterback and the fact that he was done in by a coach (Jim Haslett) who beat him with strong corner play on Dez Bryant and very little else that was remarkable - save for an insatiable thirst to bring pressure all day long.
We detailed the issues on Monday Morning in our "Morning After" column, where it seems they were betrayed by Tony Romo.
Playing an opponent for the 2nd time and being a veteran QB who had "seen it all", Romo had to be able to back off the pressure by making the Redskins pay. Instead, it was a constant battle against the play clock to get his troops deployed and then to get the snap off before what appeared to often be a rather panicked few seconds of avoiding blitzers.
From Monday:
I repeat what I have said before: This is NOT like the other end of season failures where everything could be blamed. This was a game that after further examination remains one in which so many things went better than expected that the game simply came down to one team protecting the football and one team did not.
-3.
Let us remind again what that number means:
Again, my thoughts on the Tony Romo era continuing are not a secret, but there is no rationale anywhere for a team being able to compete and win when their most important player lays an egg at just the wrong moment like Romo did Sunday night in Washington.
And for that, it is pointless to defend his career right now. This is a time where he unfortunately played like his critics have claimed all along.
Data from Week 16 at Washington:
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
1st Half -
2nd Half -
Look how poorly the ball went out to the right flank. On good nights, that is where the Cowboys do most of their damage. But, look at all of the red over there. Nothing could get cooking. Rather, most of Romo's yards came on the favorite "Dig" route - the 15 yard deep in that is completed straight ahead and between the hash marks.
Drive Starters - The 1st play of each drive can often reveal the intent of a coach to establish his game plan. How committed is he to the run or pass when the team comes off the sideline? We track it each week here -
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-At Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 16-At Washington: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Season: 173 Drives* 76 Run/97 Pass - 43.9% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
The Cowboys must decide what to do about this issue in 2013. The trend and differences from 2011 are startling.
Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62 38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70 61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63 55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
Wk 16 - Wash: 34/61 56%
2012 Season Total: 565/1038 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
Now, as you look at the breakdown with personnel groupings, it is actually interesting to see how the Cowboys did not try a whole lot of deception. When they went under center, they were primarily running the ball - 27 snaps and 21 of those were running plays - all for good yardage.
And when they went to shotgun, they passed. 34 snaps and 33 were passes. This does make us ask if more could have been done to cross up the Redskins defense a bit with more balanced attacks either way.
If they are sending the house when you are in shotgun, do you have a chance to sneak a run through their blitz? Because if you can break through the blitz, there should be nothing but green grass.
* - Knee Plays are not counted in play calls.
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
Meanwhile, there is no such convenient excuses for the offense. The 11 starters who started Week 16 were the exact same 11 players who played the majority of the snaps of the season opener in New York. I say it that way because we all remember Phil Costa took the first 3 snaps of the season at center and then barely played again the rest of the year (he took a total of 126 snaps, Ryan Cook played 837 at center).
Otherwise, it was Romo with Murray and Vickers; Witten, Bryant, and Austin as the main targets; and Smith, Livings, Bernadeau, and Free across the front. They were beat up and the receivers could not finish the game, but 11 of the 11 players from Week 1 were there and ready in Week 16 in Washington.
And, in fairness, the offense played some of its better football late in the season when the defense was holding on for dear life. But that ended in Washington, where the Cowboys had one of their worst offensive performances at just the wrong time.
But, let's be careful how we label this one. Because there is a real difference between the season-view of certain failures and Sunday's failure. Many times this season, the offensive line and the running game betrayed them. Other times, the game plan seemed overly conservative or careful. Still others, there was no pass protection to speak of.
But, in this particular game, the coaches will look at the tape and they will see evidence of things that will drive them absolutely crazy.
For instance, in the volatile running game results that were predictably poor all season, the Cowboys ran the ball with great effectiveness in Washington. Without the aid of only 1 run of over 10 yards, the Cowboys found consistent running in small, but useful chunks all game long. 4.5 yards per carry in a divisional road game was almost too good to be true. It was the 3rd best results of their season (only at New York and at Baltimore were better) and I am quite sure that they all would have signed up for those results before the game started.
Further, the average starting field position of each drive was 2nd best for the season. They was only one other game all season (Tampa Bay) where the Cowboys were given the ball at an average better spot than their own 33 yard line.
They ran the ball well. They "stayed ahead of the chains". They were balanced up and further, they were actually quite efficient on 3rd Downs. Further, they played a team that passed for only 100 yards.
Most weeks, indicators like all of these would point to a Cowboys offense that was healthy and probably had plenty of success. The symptoms point to a game that was probably won.
And almost none of it mattered because they were sabotaged by taking a -3 in the turnover margin. And of those 3 picks, almost all of the blame of the throws must go to the Quarterback and the fact that he was done in by a coach (Jim Haslett) who beat him with strong corner play on Dez Bryant and very little else that was remarkable - save for an insatiable thirst to bring pressure all day long.
We detailed the issues on Monday Morning in our "Morning After" column, where it seems they were betrayed by Tony Romo.
Playing an opponent for the 2nd time and being a veteran QB who had "seen it all", Romo had to be able to back off the pressure by making the Redskins pay. Instead, it was a constant battle against the play clock to get his troops deployed and then to get the snap off before what appeared to often be a rather panicked few seconds of avoiding blitzers.
From Monday:
The Redskins blitzed at every opportunity. In fact, for the game, they blitzed in 25 of 39 passing scenarios and 24 of 34 when the Cowboys were in shotgun. They blitzed and blitzed. And on 2nd down, Jim Haslett sent pressure on 8 of 11 passes, and on 3rd Down it was 10 out of 12. They dared the Cowboys to beat them, and the Cowboys did not.Instead, the 3 interceptions - each for different reasons, but all 3 were deadly - proved to be more than the team could overcome.
I repeat what I have said before: This is NOT like the other end of season failures where everything could be blamed. This was a game that after further examination remains one in which so many things went better than expected that the game simply came down to one team protecting the football and one team did not.
-3.
Let us remind again what that number means:
But, in the end, they lost because they took a -3 in their biggest game of the year. With 116 games in Cowboys history in which they were a -3 in turnover differential, the Cowboys record falls to a 10-104-2 record. And in the Romo-era? Well, the record is now 1-15. In other words, you don't win games when you turn the ball over that much.Further, we can expand it beyond the Cowboys. In the entire NFL since 2010, the record for teams winning a game in which they are a "-3" in turnover ratio is 7-149. That means you have roughly a 4% chance of winning any game in which you are that careless with the football.
Again, my thoughts on the Tony Romo era continuing are not a secret, but there is no rationale anywhere for a team being able to compete and win when their most important player lays an egg at just the wrong moment like Romo did Sunday night in Washington.
And for that, it is pointless to defend his career right now. This is a time where he unfortunately played like his critics have claimed all along.
Data from Week 16 at Washington:
| Run-Pass | 22-39 |
| Starting Field Position | D 33 |
| 1st Down Run-Pass | 13-15 |
| 2nd Down Avg Distance to Go | 6.35 |
| 2nd Down Run-Pass | 8-12 |
| 3rd Down Avg Distance to Go | 6.69 |
| 3rd/4th Down Run-Pass | 1-12 |
| 3rd Down Conversions | 7-13, 54% |
PASSING CHARTS:
Here are the passing charts to see what was being accomplished on Sunday.
Blue is a completion. Red is incomplete. Yellow is a touchdown, and Black is an interception. The passes are lines from where Romo released the pass to where the pass was caught. This shows you his release point and where he likes to throw when he slides in the pocket.
1st Half -
2nd Half -
Look how poorly the ball went out to the right flank. On good nights, that is where the Cowboys do most of their damage. But, look at all of the red over there. Nothing could get cooking. Rather, most of Romo's yards came on the favorite "Dig" route - the 15 yard deep in that is completed straight ahead and between the hash marks.
This chart shows balls thrown to Dez Bryant - he has won his battles with DeAngelo Hall over his short career, but on this night, there is no doubt the big mouthed corner got the decision.
Wk 1-At New York: 9 Drives - 5 Run/4 Pass
Wk 2-At Seattle: 9 Drives - 3 Run/6 Pass
Wk 3-Tampa Bay: 13 Drives - 7 Run/6 Pass
Wk 4-Chicago: 11 Drives - 3 Run/8 Pass
Wk 5-At Baltimore: 10 Drives - 8 Run/2 Pass
Wk 6-At Carolina 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 7-New York: 14 Drives - 4 Run/10 Pass
Wk 8-At Atlanta: 9 Drives - 4 Run/5 Pass
Wk 9-At Philadelphia: 10 Drives - 6 Run/4 Pass
Wk 10-Cleveland: 13 Drives - 5 Run/8 Pass
Wk 11-Washington: 12 Drives - 3 Run/9 Pass
Wk 12-Philadelphia: 8 Drives - 5 Run/3 Pass
Wk 13-At Cincinnati: 10 Drives - 5 Run/5 Pass
Wk 14-Pittsburgh: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 15-New Orleans: 12 Drives - 4 Run/8 Pass
Wk 16-At Washington: 11 Drives - 4 Run/7 Pass
Season: 173 Drives* 76 Run/97 Pass - 43.9% Run
* This statistic doesn't count the 1-play kneel down drives (there are 6 this year).
2011 Total: 181 Drives - 79 Run/102 Pass 44% Run
SHOTGUN SNAPS-
Shotgun snaps are fine on 3rd Down and in the 2 minute drill. But, we track this stat from week to week to make sure the Cowboys aren't getting too lazy in using it. They are not efficient enough to run it as their base, and with a 15%/85% run/pass split across the league, there is no way the defense respects your running game. When shotgun totals are high, the Cowboys are generally behind, scared of their offensive line, or frustrated. High Shotgun numbers are not this team's calling card for success.
The Cowboys must decide what to do about this issue in 2013. The trend and differences from 2011 are startling.
Wk 1 - at NYG: 15/54 27.7%
Wk 2 - at Sea: 29/56 52%
Wk 3 - TB: 34/63 54%
Wk 4 - Chi: 50/68 74%
Wk 5 - at Balt: 19/79 24%
Wk 6 - at Car: 22/64 34%
Wk 7 - NYG: 48/83 58%
Wk 8 - at Atl: 29/54 54%
Wk 9 - at Phil: 17/54 31%
Wk 10 - Cle: 52/76 68%
Wk 11 - Wash: 62/75 83%
Wk 12 - Phil: 24/62 38%
Wk 13 - Cin: 43/70 61%
Wk 14 - Pit: 35/63 55%
Wk 15 - NO: 42/56 75%
Wk 16 - Wash: 34/61 56%
2012 Season Total: 565/1038 54%
2011 Total - 445/1012 43.9%
Here is the breakdown by groupings:
Before you study the data below, I would recommend that if the numbers for the groupings are unfamiliar, that you spend some time reading a more expanded definition of the Personnel Groupings here.
Totals by Personnel Groups:
Now, as you look at the breakdown with personnel groupings, it is actually interesting to see how the Cowboys did not try a whole lot of deception. When they went under center, they were primarily running the ball - 27 snaps and 21 of those were running plays - all for good yardage.
And when they went to shotgun, they passed. 34 snaps and 33 were passes. This does make us ask if more could have been done to cross up the Redskins defense a bit with more balanced attacks either way.
If they are sending the house when you are in shotgun, do you have a chance to sneak a run through their blitz? Because if you can break through the blitz, there should be nothing but green grass.
| Package | Plays Run | Yards | Run | Pass |
| 11 | 4 | 20 | 3-9 | 1-11 |
| 12 | 3 | 33 | 1-9 | 2-24 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 21 | 14 | 71 | 12-59 | 2-12 |
| 22 | 5 | 10 | 4-14 | 1-(-4) |
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| S01 | 3 | 32 | 0-0 | 3-32 |
| S02 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| S11 | 19 | 72 | 1-8 | 18-64 |
| S12 | 12 | 56 | 0-0 | 12-56 |
| Knee | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Totals | 61 | 295 | 22-100 | 39-195 |
Totals by Personnel Groups on 3rd/4th Down:
| Package | Plays | Yards | Run | Pass | FD/TD |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 21 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 22 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| 23 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1/0 |
| S01 | 2 | 32 | 0-0 | 2-32 | 1/1 |
| S10 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| S11 | 10 | 33 | 0-0 | 10-33 | 1/1 |
| S12 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0/0 |
| Totals | 13 | 66 | 1-1 | 12-65 | 3/2 |
In the end, we find that this is a game where the statistics do not tell the whole story, unless you see that turnover margin that pretty much canceled out all of the good that was accomplished.
As a play caller, I have plenty of issues with Jason Garrett over the course of 6 seasons. But, in a one-game portrait, he did his job reasonably well. Did they try enough screen plays to take the pressure off the inside? No, but they did throw several passes out to the edge to beat the blitz - including the last interception. The throw betrayed the strategy.
Garrett deployed the troops, but his QB has to make great decisions. A coach cannot make them for him after he prepares him the best he can.
And in this game, I don't believe you can blame the offensive line, the play calling, or any other target.
This seems like the rare occasion where the Cowboys were just sabotaged by inferior QB play that was mostly based on a few decisions that did not value the ball enough or the game situation (the last INT was a risky throw on 1st Down).
Most Sundays, if Tony Romo is your QB, you are going to be alright. This game, with everything on the line, was not one of them.
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