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Tuesday, 12 February 2013

Bag of Pucks - Feb 12

Posted on 06:46 by Unknown
Back again for another bag of pucks where the Stars haven't lost since the night before the Super Bowl.    If that continues, the Stars are going to be really good this year.

Seriously, there is no denying how much better the Stars look to the naked eye since they have had Derek Roy and Jamie Benn both present in their lineups on the same night.  Now, that has only been 3 games in 12, mind you, but the Stars have won all 3 of those games (the latest 3) and the power of two legitimate offensive centers reminds us of days gone by when Brad Richards and Mike Ribeiro or Mike Modano walked the halls in Frisco.

This is clearly the design behind the trades made last summer - to move a Ribeiro out who they thought was no longer a viable option and to bring Roy in despite the contract risks that come with it.  They are ready to set sail with Jamie Benn being a #1 who will play heavy minutes in every scenario and has responded by looking like the best player on the ice more often than not lately.

Meanwhile, Roy has a strong 2-way game that includes a steady forecheck, the ability to win a ton of face-offs, and most importantly, to make some sense of a power play that seldom has made sense in the last few years - especially since Richards has moved to New York.

The big questions with Roy are certainly going to persist until he puts them to rest.  His contract is a scary prospect for all involved and the Stars need to make sure this gets done.  But, more importantly, he needs to demonstrate that the last 2 years that were destroyed by injuries and lack of production were merely a blip on the radar.  He looks to have great quality, but obviously, that is all based on availability which is based on durability.

But, in those 3 games together, the Stars have put up their 3 most productive nights from a shots on goal perspective.  Shots on goal don' t mean everything, but when you have been out-shot in 11 of the 12 games, you certainly recognize that it can lead you down some roads that you don't wish to visit.  In 3 of the first 4 games this season, the Stars conceded 40 shots, suggesting that they seldom had possession of the puck and were taking penalties at a very high rate because they were chasing all night long.

They still take too many penalties, but in the last 3 games with Roy and Benn together, they have enjoyed an advantage in power play opportunities, 13-12, and have even won the faceoff battle in the last 2 games.  Faceoffs are related to possession, as possession is related to power play chances and shots on goal.  But, having 2 centers up top and 2 more centers down below in Cody Eakin and Vern Fiddler who can handle their business quite capably shows that the vision that the Stars front office had last summer does make sense in reality.

GOLOGOSKI AND THE HEALTHY SCRATCH

There was certainly plenty of buzz last week when the Stars decided to give Alex Goligoski a chance to watch the game in the press box in Edmonton rather than playing the most minutes on the roster as he often does.

This has been a tough transition for Goligoski to handle, where he went from the nurturing atmosphere in Pittsburgh where he was surrounded by some of the most gifted players in the world to a place in Dallas where not only is he being asked to be their best defenseman, but also being asked by local journalists to simply be the next Sergei Zubov.   Seriously, let's just ask him to be Bobby Orr while we are at it.

There are no more Zubov-types riding in to save this thing, but still, both parties decided that this contract was a great idea rather than letting him get to free agency last summer.  The Stars had no other choices as their minor leagues had not supplied cheap puck carriers that were ready, so they invested heavily in a player that appeared to have traits to be a PP savior but had never quite done it.  They were investing in "upside" and may have missed the target by early returns.

I have written plenty on this topic and I do believe that no trade gets explained more improperly than the James Neal trade.  That being said, the contract is binding, and the Stars have to do the best they can to get the most of Alex, and perhaps a healthy scratch had a profound effect on the player.  Especially since it happened in Edmonton, where the hockey media certainly made a note of it that might have been lost if it was in Phoenix.

But, more than anything, I like the idea of the Stars trying a very seldom used tactic around here, and that is direct and public treatment of a veteran millionaire that is appearing to underperform.  The healthy scratch is not something that happens in other sports, but in the NHL, it is a weapon that can be used.  A player is not promised a spot in the lineup every night, but veterans generally just have to stay healthy and it is theirs.

The Stars have almost never used this for vets - especially in the post Bob Gainey/Ken Hitchcock era when Donald Audette was famously scratched in early October 2001 after signing here that summer.  Since then, there have been a few, including Mike Ribeiro, but that was punishment for missing a meeting, not for underperforming.

With Ribeiro and others recently including Steve Ott, there seemed to be a disconnect between what the management team wanted him to do and what he would actually do on the ice.  They would talk about issues, but the coaching points would sometimes not be properly followed.  When that happened, there always seemed to be a sigh of resignation rather than escalating the situation with a heavier hand of punishment.  If they would have scratched a player who is not accepting coaching points, perhaps they would be happier with the development of the player.  Instead, they seemed to avoid confrontation and ultimately try to trade the player on to a new place for a new player that would be more coachable.  I think this is a bit wasteful with resources sometimes.

Since Gainey and Hitchcock exited, it has always seemed that the Stars have tried to avoid head-on confrontation with players, opting for the occasional tough word, but usually taking the more travelled road of "treating them like men" and being player-friendly.

But, sometimes, there is a place for Bill Parcells or Bob Knight and the school of direct punishment.  Players live very comfy lives where money is everywhere and admonishment is not.  I am not saying Goligoski requires any sort of this, but I am saying that surely in 11 seasons since Audette was humiliated, there was call for a player to be called out with by taking the only currency they understand - playing time.

Is it a country club sometimes?  I don't believe so, but if players are not complying or buying in at the level you need, then sometimes this should happen.  Sometimes, you can get the player's attention and other times, the whole roster sits up straight and realizes that everyone can do more.  I admire the Stars trying this and making sure everyone knows that nobody has their spot given, it must be earned.

And don't misunderstand it.  Buffalo also scratched their golden boy on the blue-line, 23-year old Tyler Myers on Saturday after writing him a 7 year/$38.5m deal this past summer and are paying him $12 million this season alone.  It doesn't mean they don't like him anymore nor does it mean they regret the contract.

It just means they want him to do what he can do to fix things.

And that is all the Stars are asking of Goligoski.


GOAL OF THE WEEK:

Check out the fine work of long-time Blue Jacket, present-day Blue Shirt Rick Nash driving hard to the net from the right wing for a beauty against Tampa Bay:



FIGHT OF THE WEEK:

Here is a matchup between two heavyweights that go back to two previous dust-ups in 2005, when John Erskine was a promising young defenseman for the Stars and George Parros was playing for the Kings.  Since then, they have found new homes but they still enjoy punching eachother.  I think everyone can agree that big Erskine gets the win here:




Now, the Stars head back to Western Canada for a tough trip that includes Edmonton tonight, Calgary on Wednesday, Vancouver on Friday, and then back to Dallas for Calgary again on Sunday and Vancouver next Wednesday.

As you can see, there are no easy stretches in this 48 game sprint where the season is already 25% done.
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Monday, 11 February 2013

Learning the Draft, Part 2: DE edition

Posted on 07:18 by Unknown
We are long overdue for another edition of the 2013 NFL Draft Primer, so let's start our week by learning what we need to learn about the defensive ends that might be a candidate for the Cowboys a ways up their board.  This, admittedly, is a very preliminary work and should only be used to gain familiarity as opposed to what many try to do at this time of year and that is act like we really know more than we do this early in the draft game.  

Here is our 1st edition of the primer, when we looked at possible Defensive Tackles that might make sense for the Cowboys in either the 1st or 2nd round.  You may wish to go back and review those videos we posted.  It is worth noting that I don't think you should feel that you "know" a player based on 15 minutes of youtube videos, but it is better than not knowing them at all.  I try to watch complete games and even get the rare chances at college coaches tape, but let's not complicate this.  Nobody is asking you to be a general manager, just get familiar with the names being discussed at both picks #18 and #51.


In the DT edition, we tried to narrow down the names a bit, and here is what I feel I learned from that preliminary study session.



Jonathan Hankins from Ohio State, John Jenkins from Georgia, and Jesse Williams from Alabama all seem to be the giant speed bumps that suited me just fine in the 3-4, but I don't see it being a fit in the 4-3 of Kiffin that should feature inside players who look a lot like Warren Sapp or Tommie Harris back in his prime when he was inside for the Bears.  I need quick with size.  Assuming that it is pretty clear the big man from Utah, Lotulelei is also gone in the top 5, then that leaves 4 players to really zero in on.

Sylvester Williams from North Carolina and Kawann Short from Purdue were my personal favorites as they appeared to be the wonderful combination of stout against the run and penetrating bowling balls that cannot be blocked in a lot of pass rush situations.  

Short, however, just turned 24 years old and I certainly want to be aware of that. 

The other two are actually more exciting to many of my colleagues and perhaps to the Cowboys.

They are, Sheldon Richardson of Missouri and Sharrif Floyd of Florida.  Both are plenty explosive, so much so that they seem to have athleticism to last forever, but Richardson in particular seems small and undersized.  I have seen his weight up and down in various places and look forward to his weigh-in at the combine to answer that question, but his Missouri tape - some of it going back to September, which is 150 days ago, sure looks like he isn't even 300 pounds.  

Floyd is also barely 300 and doesn't seem to be a guy who will be terribly stout at the point of attack.  He sure can run and I can see the attraction by some.  My question might be how a guy can play on a defense that good for 3 years and only get to the QB for 4.5 sacks and 26 tackles for loss in 37 games?   Those numbers are not where I would like to see them for a college player in the SEC.  

Williams from UNC had 6 sacks and 13.5 TFLs just this season, Short from Purdue had 7 sacks and 15.5 TFLs just in 2012, too.  For his career at Purdue, Short had 18.5 sacks and 49.5 TFLs, so with Floyd, I have a bit of a production issue to comprehend.

Admittedly, production in college should only go so far, but I guess it is important to point out that somewhere athleticism has to meet production.  I need to strike a balance and fill in as many blanks as possible.

Anyway, as we sit today, with much to discuss, the DT crop that I am most interested in would include those 4, which I would currently attest to liking Williams and Short more than the consensus opinions of Richardson and Floyd. 

But we still have plenty of time.

=====

DEFENSIVE ENDS

This is another spot where the Cowboys may want to spend a top resource to grab a kid who can play 4-3 end for them for years to come as well.  We should really figure this group out as well, but this will require a bit of imagination as there are 3-4 ends and 4-3 ends.  In fact, looking at the top 4 DEs on the board, we can see that we have a 4-3 end in Peppers, a 3-4 end in Justin Smith, a guy who did both in the NFL with Cameron Wake, and a guy who was a 4-3 end in college and now is the best 3-4 end in the sport in JJ Watt.


So, sometimes, we get to carried away with scheme and prototypes so let's fight that urge at this particular point in time.  Most of the time, an ideal player can do what you need regardless of scheme.


2012 All-Pro Team Defensive Ends

Name-SchoolHTWTArm40-Time
C Wake - Penn St6'3258324.65
Peppers - N Carolina6'728733.54.68
Watt - Wisconsin6'5295344.84
J Smith - Missouri6'4285354.64



With that in mind, let's look at the top DE prospects that look like candidates to be in the top 60 on draft day in April at the time we write this.  I have decided to leave out all of the sketchy 40-times that we have listed in the past because they are all purely fictional until they run with NFL clocks on them, either at the combine or at their pro days:

Name-SchoolHTWTArm40-Time
Werner - Florida St6'4255--
Jordan - Oregon6'6239--
Mingo - LSU6'5240--
Moore - Texas AM6'4248--
Ansah - BYU6'6273--
Jones - UCLA6'4275--
Okafor - Texas6'4260--
Montgomery - LSU6'4245--
Gholston - Mich St6'6278--
Hunt - SMU6'8272--

Of this group, let's go ahead and assume that two guys are clearly gone when #18 approaches.  From all indications, Bjoern Werner from Florida State and Damontre Moore from Texas A&M will not get out of the Top 10 and quite possibly the Top 5.


Dion Jordan from Oregon and Barkevious Mingo look likely to be gone, but let's look at them anyway.


The bottom 4 do not appear to be candidates for #18, but they are all squarely in the hunt for the 2nd round spots if they last that long.  Although, It sure seems that a guy like Margus Hunt from SMU is a perfect candidate for a 3-4 end for clear reasons detected with the eyeballs.


Now, here comes the videos without much comment from me.  The exercise here is for those of you who are interested to grab a pen and paper and try to look at each of the players below carefully and decide for yourself who you like and don't like based on the old eyeball test.


Next week, we will break down each player and try to get to know them better, but the first pass should be strictly without a ton of information clouding your judgement.  Just watch him and see what you think:


Barkevious Mingo - LSU - #49 - More Videos




Dion Jordan - Oregon - #96 - More Videos




Ezekial Ansah - BYU - #47 -  More Videos 




Datone Jones - UCLA - #56  More Videos




Alex Okafor - Texas - #80 -  More Videos




Sam Montgomery - LSU - #99 -  More Videos




William Gholston - Michigan State - #2 -  More Videos




Margus Hunt - SMU - #92 -  More Videos




There, that will hold you for a bit.


I tried to post just one video per player in the interest of space, but try to watch multiples if time allows as I have put a link up for further videos for each player at a website that collected them all called draftbreakdown.com


Feel free to leave comments on your observations, and then next week we will compare notes and move to the offensive line.
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Posted in cowboys 2013, FSSW, NFL Draft 2013 | No comments

Friday, 8 February 2013

My Initial Views Of A Complicated Off-Season

Posted on 08:06 by Unknown
The smoke has cleared on the NFL season and now we reset all records back to 0-0 and begin again.  While it is true that the first game is 8 months away, every team in the league is spending time right now on the vital decisions that will shape their roster and hopes of 2013.  Those decisions include a great deal of working and re-working the salary cap situations on each team, analyzing and targeting free agents - both your own and others - and more than anything, preparing for the biggest resource of talent acquisition at the most reasonable prices in our sport, the NFL Draft.

Teams that do their finest work in February generally make things much easier for themselves in November.  And remember that in 2012, the Dallas Cowboys signed an exceedingly troubling number of street free agents and inserted many of them directly into their lineup.  Charlie Peprah, Ernie Sims, Vince Agnew, Sterling Moore, and Brady Poppinga were all players who were completely unemployed in pro football who were all signed and put on the field by the Cowboys because of their lack of depth.  All teams have injuries, but when you are putting street free agents into your lineup, that speaks loudly that you have not fortified your roster with capable backups who are ready for an opportunity.  The object of the offseason is to find players who can be proper backups and play when called upon.  Then, you have practice squad call-ups replace injured players, not veterans who are out of work being pulled in during November.  It is both cost-effective and football smart, to only draw from your own organization for your needs that arise.  Then, you don't have to cram a playbook into their head and teach them your system.  You also don't have to pay veteran minimums and bypass your own talent.

Further, the 2012 draft which had so much promise in April, proved to be disappointing from an immediate basis during the year as the Cowboys received nothing from Matt Johnson (4th round), Danny Coale (5th round), and Caleb McSurdy (7th round).  Kyle Wilber (4th) played just 16 snaps, James Hanna (6th) played 109, and Tyrone Crawford (3rd) 303.  Basically, they found no significant plugs for their holes save for Mo Claiborne who played 909 snaps and looked the part of a regular for years to come.

Before the draft, we always hope for multiple regulars, but the Cowboys were amongst the worst in the league in 2012 from a basis of total snaps from their rookie draft class - despite so many veteran injuries.  That is something they will hope to change in 2013.

Meanwhile, the cap situation for the Cowboys is a real issue.  Due to some high dollar deals to veterans (Romo, Witten, Carr, Ware, Austin), some pending deals that will need to be written up (Dez, Tyron, Lee), and the occasional NFL cap penalty, the Cowboys have very little room with which to maneuver this year.

This means that although you are certainly sending me emails asking about Ahmad Bradshaw and Chris Canty and their relative use to the Cowboys problems, it seems rather difficult to fully consider that given their inability to get a deal done with Anthony Spencer because that might keep them from being able to keep Sean Lee or Dez Bryant down the road.

Now, I am a big believer that the Cowboys must keep Spencer.  I thought that last year and laid out the idea of franchising him last February.  Since he went out and had a fantastic year, I think it would set this thing back a bit to lose him.  But given there cap situation, there are many believe that he will be gone.

Here are the Cowboys Unrestricted Free Agents:  Spencer, Victor Butler, Kenyon Coleman, Eric Frampton, Felix Jones, LP Ladouceur, Brian Moorman, Michael Coe, John Phillips, Poppinga, Kevin Ogletree, Peprah, Derrick Dockery, Michael Jenkins, and Sims.

Only Spencer, Butler, Jones, Phillips, Ogletree, Jenkins, and Sims played more than 300 snaps.

Of those, I would not lose sleep on any of them besides Spencer if the prices are more than minimal.  They have all had plenty of years and opportunity to demonstrate what they are all about and have not made me feel like I must keep them.  Jenkins has obviously had moments as has Felix, but the price is going to have to be really right.

As for releasing veterans, this is where you have to be careful.  Why?  Because you start cutting players then you have to replace them if they play significant roles on the squad.  And if you have limited cap space, we are right back where we started.

Dan Connor saves you $3m if you cut him.  Marcus Spears saves about $600k.  Gerald Sensabaugh about the same, but you need him to play safety, I think.  Ratliff doesn't save much to cut and you need him, too.  Scandrick is on a decent number and Livings is locked in.

Lawrence Vickers saves you $1.2m to cut and of course, Doug Free saves you $7m if you cut him after June 1.  But, then, you need a tackle which I assume they figure is Jeremy Parnell full-time.  The problem with that is that Parnell may be a real issue having you thinking about taking a tackle in the draft - which you must do high - maybe in the 1st round.

So, to me, Connor, Free, Spears, and Vickers are all gone.  Carr gets restructured and Romo might as well if you decide to redo his deal, but I don't think that will save you a ton unless you stretch out his deal so far that you delay the inevitable cap crush for down the road - something they have already done too many times.

From there, I think you have to try to keep Spencer for the following reason:  If my free agency is almost non existent due to cap issues then I have just two premium chips to play this offseason - 1st and 2nd round picks.

Now, if I am spending my 1st round pick on a tackle to replace Free and a 2nd round pick on a defensive lineman to replace Spencer, how much better is my team?  I still have major issues at DT, G, C, and Safety.  I still have no backup for RB, no depth at WR, and I am not real sure who my 3rd LB is going to be.  Basically, I have just plugged 2 holes I just opened up, and not really fixed any of the problems I had all year!

In the words of Bono, I am merely running to stand still.

The difference between Free and Spencer is obvious - one is coming off a fantastic year and the other is playing so badly that the Cowboys are releasing him after thinking they were locking up a nice piece just 2 seasons back.  The Free contract looks bad now, but at the time it seemed like a reasonable price for a nice tackle.  It is tough to blame the Cowboys for Free, if we are to be fair on that one move.

So, the Spencer franchise tag is $10.6m (120% of last year's tag).  And, although it seems very difficult, I think I have to do it even if it eats up most of my remaining resources.  Of course, I would prefer a reasonable extension for him with a small number in 2013, but that ship sailed when he had the year he just had. Then, I take the best OL/DL in Round 1 and do it again in Round 2.  I have plenty of ideas, but my main target right now is an inside defensive tackle who can penetrate and make a difference as we look for another Warren Sapp/Tommy Harris type.

Then, on the OL, I am thinking guard or tackle, but I can't miss on either of these picks. I might roll with a guard and give Parnell a look, but I have to get a tackle ready quick as well.  Now, I have Spencer, Ware, Hatcher, Ratliff, Crawford, Lissemore, and my top DT pick as my front 4.  Or, I keep Spencer at SOLB and put Carter and Lee in space and feel great about that, too.

This cap situation combined with the roster seems like quite a mess.  They are in this spot because they made too many mistakes along the way in the last several years.

My rookie class is going to be bolstered with some of last years rookies finally being available.

But, make no mistake, this is going to be a spring where they need to accomplish a lot with very little.  Consider it a bit of a Hail Mary offseason.  Maybe this is the year Jerry can make that happen.

Ah, optimism helps in times like these.
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Posted in cowboys 2013, FSSW, NFL Draft 2013 | No comments

Wednesday, 6 February 2013

NFL Franchise Rankings, Version 12.0

Posted on 21:22 by Unknown

The 12th annual Sturm NFL Franchise Rankings are ready for your viewing pleasure. I have tabulated the latest figures after the 2012 Playoffs and Super Bowl 47.  As we close the book on another NFL season, we do it the way we have been doing it since 2001.

It is fun for killing time at work, at dinner, or in the dorm rooms.

Who exactly can claim to be the best franchise in the modern era?  Is it the Cowboys?  The Steelers?  Or the 49ers?  And who is really better if a Seahawks fan and Falcons fan square off?  How about a Jets fan and a Browns fan?  And who should be more outraged at their franchises incompetence over the last 47 years, the Cardinals or the Lions?

How did this project ever begin?

To recap, twelve years ago, a good listener of the radio show asked me to rank the franchises from #32 to #1 based on their accomplishments during the Super Bowl era.

So I did. I wanted it to be objective, not subjective. I wanted it to be a formula and you would just enter the numbers and it would spit out the rankings with no favoritism or prejudice. So, I have been doing this since every year since 2001, on the week following the Super Bowl. Since then, it has been imitated a time or two , but I don’t mind. It is pretty obvious idea for any sports nerd with time on hand to come up with.

Here is how it works. Each Franchise gets 1 point for each season it makes the playoffs. Then, if it reaches the Conference Championship Game it gets a total of 3 points. If it makes the Super Bowl it gets 5, and if it wins the Super Bowl it wins the maximum total of points in a given year of 11. It used to be 10 for the Super Bowl, but I have adjusted it because I didn’t like the idea that 2 Super Bowl losses equaled a Super Bowl win. So, Now 11 points for a win and 5 for a loss in the Super Bowl.

I have been asked why no points are given for wins in the Wildcard round, but I decided that would not make sense with the idea that the playoffs have expanded over the years and there is no way to equalize a smaller field to a larger one. Also, a Wildcard win is not that big a deal anymore with 6 teams in the playoffs, so unless you reach the Conference Title game, no additional points beyond the 1 for making the post-season.

I also have been asked how come I don’t go by average points per season (since many teams have joined the league since Super Bowl 1. My answer is simple: I don’t want to penalize teams who have been in the league all of the years. If you go by average points per year rather than total points, it is possible that the Baltimore Ravens would be #1 soon if they win another Super Bowl next year. And it is fair to note how great Baltimore has done compared to teams around them in the rankings. No chance I would believe that premise, given that they didn’t exist prior to 1996. But, if a team has been established since the season of Super Bowl 1 (1966), it is notated.

Just add up the points for all the years, and that is the entire formula. (By the way, if you disagree with the point totals for each accomplishment, you will find that just about any reasonable formula spits out about the same results.  Try me, pick your own point values.)

Otherwise, I break ties based on the team with more Super Bowl wins, then Super Bowl losses, then Championship Game wins, then playoff berths, and finally average points per year.

There are no ties. I will settle it somehow.

We have added "average pts per year" in the last 2 versions - so that we may determine results based on years in the league. 24 of the 32 teams have been here the entire span of the 47 years of Super Bowl football, but this metric will help put the other 8 teams: Saints '67, Bengals '68, Seahawks '76, Buccaneers '76, Jaguars '95, Panthers '95, Ravens '96, and Texans '02. Also, the Browns missed 96-98, so they only have 44 seasons to work with.

Here are the Final Rankings through Super Bowl 47:


Teams #1-#10
=========================================

#1 - Pittsburgh Steelers (Last year, #1)

In 2011, it finally happened. When Super Bowl 30 was completed, the Cowboys were at 101 and the Steelers were at 68 points. Well, since then, the Steelers have been the model of excellence for anyone not in New England, and the Cowboys have been, well, the Cowboys. Therefore, based on the tie breaking system, the Steelers took over as the current heavyweight leader in the Super Bowl era. The first time in years that the Cowboys have not held this post.  2012 did not change this at all as both teams missed the playoffs.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 72C, 73, 74S, 75S, 76C, 77, 78S, 79S, 82, 83, 84C, 89, 92, 93, 94C, 95SL, 96, 97C, 01C, 02, 04C, 05S, 07, 08S, 10SL, 11

P: 26
4: 7
2: 2
1: 6

Average: 2.3 points per season

Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker over Dallas because of Lombardi Trophies, 6-5.

#2 - Dallas Cowboys (Last Year, #2)

Dallas has the most playoff appearances, the most Final 4s, and are tied with Pittsburgh for the most Super Bowl appearances. However, since 1996, they have a performance level that actually trails the Jacksonville Jaguars and is certainly a team that is getting by on reputation and history. They are far removed from where they once stood, and yet, they still can claim to have as many or more points than any other franchise. They were a dominant, dominant franchise for 30 years.  So much so, that according to these numbers, the Cowboys had 101 points through the first 30 Super Bowls and just 7 points in the last 17.  That equates to 3.3 points per season for the first 30 years and 0.4 per year in the 17 years since.  Yikes.

Total Points: 108
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 67C, 68, 69, 70SL, 71S, 72C, 73C, 75SL, 76, 77S, 78SL, 79, 80C, 81C, 82C, 83, 85, 91, 92S, 93S, 94C, 95S, 96, 98, 99, 03, 06, 07, 09

P: 30
4: 8
2: 3
1: 5

Average: 2.3 points per season


#3 - San Francisco 49ers (#3)

The 49ers were poised to get another Super Bowl this season, but they hit the wall in the final game.  Even if they had won this Super Bowl 47, it would not have caught Dallas and Pittsburgh for the top pairing, but it would have put them a season away.  Nevertheless, they certainly solidify their spot further in the top 3 and look prepared to continue to do more winning moving forward.

Total Points: 93
Total Playoff Years: 70C, 71C, 72, 81S, 83C, 84S, 85, 86, 87, 88S, 89S, 90C, 92C, 93C, 94S, 95, 96, 97C, 98, 01, 02, 11C, 12SL

P: 22
4: 8
2: 1
1: 5

Average: 1.98 points per season


#4 - Oakland Raiders (#4)

Now, having missed the playoffs every season since their last Super Bowl in SB 37, 11 long years ago, they reside easily in the Top 5, but have been a dormant franchise themselves for a while now. But, looking at the rest of their history, they remain one of the strongest franchises of the Super Bowl era.

Total Points: 77
Total Playoff Years: 67SL, 68C, 69C, 70C, 72, 73C, 74C, 75C, 76S, 77C, 80S, 82, 83S, 84, 85, 90C, 91, 93, 00C, 01, 02SL

P: 21
4: 9
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.64 points per season

#5 - New England Patriots (#6)

The gold standard of this millennium, the Patriots have been the Giants victim twice, or they would be right on top of the Raiders . However, given that they have gained 52 points since 2001, they are still the franchise that has been on the move the most. And overall, they have now been to 7 Super Bowls, which trails just 2 other franchises.  This year, their AFC Championship Game put them 5th, passing Green Bay in the process.

Total Points: 69
Total Playoff Years: 76, 78, 82, 85SL, 86, 94, 96SL, 97, 98, 01S, 03S, 04S, 05, 06C, 07SL, 09, 10, 11SL, 12C

P: 17
4: 2
2: 4
1: 3

Average: 1.47 points per season


#6 - Green Bay Packers (#5)

Another year of high expectations, but a stall out in the divisional round, puts them down to 6th as the Patriots passed them.  Of course, their older fans will remind the crowd that their 13 Championships overall might dispute football history starting in 1966. Nevertheless, in the Super Bowl era, they had a substantial break between Bart Starr and Brett Favre where nothing got accomplished.

Total Points: 67
Total Playoff Years: 66S, 67S, 72, 82, 93, 94, 95C, 96S, 97SL, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 07C, 09, 10S, 11, 12

P: 19
4: 2
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.43 points per season



#7 - New York Giants (#7)

The Giants, despite their rich history, are a team with a shocking few number of playoff years. Yet, when they do actually get in, they seem to do some pretty special things. 5 Super Bowls in just 14 playoffs years is outstanding.  In 2012, though, they missed the playoffs and were caught at 59 points by Denver - yet still hold the tiebreaker with 4 Super Bowl victories.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 81, 84, 85, 86S, 89, 90S, 93, 97, 00SL, 02, 05, 06, 07S, 08, 11S

P: 14
4: 0
2: 1
1: 4

Average: 1.25 points per season

New York holds advantage over Denver based on Lombardi Trophies, 4-2

# 8 - Denver Broncos (#8)

Peyton Manning had them dreaming of a higher finish in 2012, but they did manage to blow the #1 seed and left the year disappointed. Still, soundly in the Top 10 franchises after going the first 12 years of the Super Bowl era before they made their initial playoff entrance.

Total Points: 59
Total Playoff Years: 77SL, 78, 79, 83, 84, 86SL, 87SL, 89SL, 91C, 93, 96, 97S, 98S, 00, 03, 04, 05C, 11

P: 19
4: 2
2: 4
1: 2

Average: 1.25 points per season


#9 - Miami Dolphins (#9)

Nothing new to report in Miami.  Another proud franchise with a strong history, but they have certainly allowed that to be about all they have to fall back on this last decade. No consistent QB play and a carousel of coaches have put the Dolphins on the outside looking in since Dan Marino's prime. The drought continues for the Dolphins.

Total Points: 58
Total Playoff Years: 70, 71SL, 72S, 73S, 74, 78, 79, 81, 82SL, 83, 84SL, 85C, 90, 92C, 94, 95, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 08

P: 22
4: 2
2: 3
1: 2

Average: 1.23 points per season

#10 - Washington Redskins (#9)

It is highly possible - Robert Griffin's knee willing - that the Redskins are at the start of an era that is headed in the right direction.  We shall see about that, but if nothing else, they found themselves in the playoffs with a divisional win and a feeling that things were going to start happening.  Still in the Top 10, but its been 20 years since the Redskins were a Super Bowl possibility.

Total Points: 57
Total Playoff Years: 71, 72SL, 73, 74, 76, 82S, 83SL, 84, 86C, 87S, 90, 91S, 92, 99, 05, 07, 12

P: 17
4: 1
2: 2
1: 3

Average: 1.21 points per season

TEAMS #11-#20
=======================================

#11 - Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts (#11)

Some teams have plenty of luck and the Colts must be feeling that after bidding Peyton Manning farewell only to draft a rookie QB who promptly takes them to the playoffs as a rookie.  That is a very, rare feat and one that seems to have them positioned for great accomplishments moving forward as well.  It was one and done, but they certainly like their odds moving forward with Andrew Luck.

Total Points: 55
Total Playoff Years: 68SL, 70S, 71C, 75, 76, 77, 87, 95C, 96, 99, 00, 02, 03C, 04, 05, 06S, 07, 08, 09SL, 10, 12

P: 21
4: 3
2: 2
1: 2

Average: 1.17 points per season

#12 - Minnesota Vikings (#12 last year)

Every team above the Vikings on this list has not only won a Super Bowl, but they have won at least two Super Bowls. So, for the Vikings to be so close to those teams despite never winning one, surely speaks to their excellence for so many years. 27 playoff entries is more than anyone in the league aside from the Steelers or Cowboys. They just have never won a gold medal. Nor, as it turns out, have they ever had the lead in any of their 4 Super Bowls. Truly cursed.  But, to make the playoffs in 2012 was a wonderful surprise and one they hope to continue to build upon.

Total Points: 53
Total Playoff Years: 68, 69SL, 70, 71, 73SL, 74SL, 75, 76SL, 77C, 78, 80, 82, 87C, 88, 89, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98C, 99, 00C, 04, 08, 09C, 12

P: 27
4: 5
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 1.12 points per season


#13 - St Louis/Los Angeles Rams (#13)

The Rams, out of the playoffs now for almost a decade, are another team that has been pretty quiet during the last several seasons since the days of Kurt Warner and the greatest show on turf. But, in the 1970s, they had a run of 4 years out of 5 where their seasons ended in the NFC Championship game, usually, at the hands of the Cowboys.

Total Points: 51
Total Playoff Years: 67, 69, 73, 74C, 75C, 76C, 77, 78C, 79SL, 80, 83, 84, 85C, 86, 88, 89C, 99S, 00, 01SL, 03, 04

P: 21
4: 6
2: 2
1: 1

Average: 1.08 points per season


#14 - Philadelphia Eagles (#14 last season)

Like the Colts, a mainstay in the playoffs for nearly the entire decade, but have now missed the last two years. Another team that has often been a resident of the post season, without ever winning the big prize. This is a fact that is not lost on its rivals.

Total Points: 35
Total Playoff Years: 78, 79, 80SL, 81, 88, 89, 90, 92, 95, 96, 00, 01C, 02C, 03C, 04SL, 06, 08C, 09, 10

P: 19
4: 4
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.75 points per season

#15 - Chicago Bears (#15)

Like Green Bay, the Bears would like to use championships that preceded the Super Bowl era, but in the 47 years of the modern era, the Bears have not been able to string together any prolonged success. In fact, with the exception of those great teams in the 1980's, it has often been a series of good seasons that are not followed with any manner of success in the next year. Like 2010's NFC Championship Game followed by 2011 and 2012 in which they missed the playoffs altogether.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 77, 79, 84C, 85S, 86, 87, 88C, 90, 91, 94, 01, 05, 06SL, 10C

P: 13
4: 3
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.72 points per season

Chicago holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.

#16 - Buffalo Bills (#16)

The Bills obviously had their crack at NFL immortality during their 4 year stretch of the 1990s when they ran into NFC East buzz-saws. Since then, they have not sniffed much of anything, with their last moments in the playoffs still being the "Music City Miracle" in Nashville. That was a long, long time ago.  It has now been 13 years since they made the playoffs - the longest drought in the NFL by a very healthy margin.

Total Points: 34
Total Playoff Years: 66C, 74, 80, 81, 88C, 89, 90SL, 91SL, 92SL, 93SL, 95, 96, 98, 99

P: 14
4: 2
2: 4
1: 0

Average: 0.23 points per season


#17 – Baltimore Ravens (#22)

Established 1996 - (The NFL ruled that all old records stay in Cleveland with the Browns.)

The big mover in 2012 was the Baltimore Ravens who have absolutely been dominant in the last 5 years with 3 seasons in the Final 4 and now a Lombardi Trophy to boot.  They jumped from #22 to #17 and in 17 years have beaten teams who have been around from Super Bowl 1.  There is no doubting their excellence since their inception and this year gives them 2 Super Bowl titles.

Total Points: 33
Total Playoff Years: 00S, 01, 03, 06, 08C, 09, 10, 11C, 12S

P: 7
4: 2
2: 0
1: 2

Average: 1.94 - 17 years


#18 - New York Jets (#17 last season)

The only team in the league that has approached the Cowboys level of media coverage for little substance in recent years missed the playoffs again after leading Sportscenter all year. After two AFC Championship Games in a row, the Jets were unable to join the postseason in the last 2. Despite that, Rex Ryan has been able to accomplish more in his 4 seasons than the 40 years prior to that going back to Namath's Super Bowl 3.

Total Points: 32
Total Playoff Years: 68S, 69, 81, 82C, 85, 86, 91, 98C, 01, 02, 04, 06, 09C, 10C

P: 13
4: 4
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.68 points per season

#19 - Kansas City Chiefs (#18)

The Chiefs played in 2 of the first 4 Super Bowls, winning Super Bowl 4. However, since 1970, the Chiefs have only been to one AFC Championship Game in 1993. Other than that, it has been a series of one-and-outs and plenty of years with no playoffs whatsoever.  And since they are picking 1st in the draft, it would seem that they are rather far away from changing things, too.

Total Points: 31
Total Playoff Years: 66SL, 68, 69S, 71, 86, 90, 91, 92, 93C, 94, 95, 97, 03, 06, 10

P: 15
4: 1
2: 1
1: 1

Average: 0.66 points per season

#20 - Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers (#19)

The Titans remain at #19 after another year of missing the post-season. With some reasonable years of success in Houston and one Super Bowl loss in Nashville, the Oilers remain in the Top 20 for now.  Barely.

Total Points: 30
Total Playoff Years: 67C, 69, 78C, 79C, 80, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 99SL, 00, 02C, 03, 07, 08

P: 18
4: 4
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.64 points per season

Teams 21-30
==================================


#21 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#20)

Established 1976

Surely, at this point, the Buccaneers realize that being in a hurry to chase Jon Gruden out of there was mistaken, right? Regardless, a team that hit its prime in the late 90s and rode it to a Super Bowl Championship in 2002, has returned to its place among the also-rans in the NFC. They now have a 5 year streak going with no playoffs and will attempt to get that turned around with a new coaching staff.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 79C, 81, 82, 97, 99C, 00, 01, 02S, 05, 07

P: 10
4: 2
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.65 - 37 seasons

Tampa Bay holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland because of Lombardi Trophies, 1-0.


#22 - Cleveland Browns (#21)

No season 1996-1998

The post-relocation Cleveland Browns has been absolutely pathetic. One playoff appearance in the 14 seasons since being a new expansion team and really no real signs of having turned the direction of the franchise around. But, let's not act like they were winning a ton before they lost the Browns to Baltimore. They severely need a revival amongst their franchise to give those loyal fans something to smile about in Cleveland.

Total Points: 24
Total Playoff Years: 67, 68C, 69C, 71, 72, 80, 82, 85, 86C, 87C, 88, 89C, 94, 02

P: 14
4: 5
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.55 in 44 seasons

#23 - San Diego Chargers (#23)

Wow - another year of expectations without even a playoff berth for the Chargers.  Certainly, more was expected from this franchise given their level of QB play they have had for almost 3 decades. But, to this point, they have flirted with some real good teams and even made one Super Bowl, but San Diego still chases its one dream season that may or may not await them down the road.

Total Points: 22
Total Playoff Years: 79, 80C, 81C, 82, 92, 94SL, 95, 04, 06, 07C, 08, 09

P: 12
4: 3
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.47

#24 – New Orleans Saints (#24)

Established 1967

A shocking omission to the playoffs in 2012, thanks to Bounty Gate.  The Saints are living their glory days right now in the Drew Brees/Sean Payton era, and have won a Super Bowl and flirted with others in the last several years. This once pathetic franchise has raised its accomplishment level several notches and has worked its way out of the basement of franchises in the NFL in quick fashion.

Total Points: 21
Total Playoff Years: 87, 90, 91, 92, 00, 06C, 09S, 10, 11

P: 9
4: 1
2: 0
1: 1

Average: 0.46 in 46 seasons


#25 – Atlanta Falcons (#27)

This is in fact, the glory days of the Atlanta Falcons.  Surely, they are disappointed with the way that 2012 finished by losing a championship game on home turf in which they had a substantial lead.  But, any Falcons fan knows that before 2010, the franchise had never made the playoffs in consecutive years.  Now, they have made the tournament 3 straight years.  Not only that, but they now win with great routine and are a bet to keep winning - they have also passed the Bengals and the Seahawks on this list for 2012.

Total Points: 20
Total Playoff Years: 78, 80, 82, 91, 95, 98SL, 02, 04C, 08, 10, 11, 12C

P: 11
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.43


#26 - Cincinnati Bengals (#25)

Established 1968

The Bengals have 2 different Super Bowl losses to great San Francisco teams in the 1980s. Beyond that, they have never been able to put together consecutive seasons of playoff football until they just did it in 2011 and 2012 with a young group of players including Andy Dalton. Time will tell as Mike Brown running the franchise still has many thinking that long-term success will not happen with him at the helm, but they have actually built a nice foundation.

Total Points: 19
Total Playoff Years: 70, 73, 75, 81SL, 82, 88SL, 90, 05, 09, 11, 12

P: 11
4: 0
2: 2
1: 0

Average: 0.41 - 45 seasons


#27 - Seattle Seahawks (#26)

Established 1976

After a fantastic 2012, Seattle has worked its way to the playoffs 7 times in the last 10. Still chasing its first Super Bowl title, the Seahawks have at least climbed out of the bottom of the league into the mid-20s.  The Seahawks have built a young, physical squad and look ready to keep building.

Total Points: 18
Total Playoff Years: 83C, 84, 87, 88, 99, 03, 04, 05SL, 06, 07, 10, 12

P: 12
4: 1
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.49 - 37 seasons


#28 - Carolina Panthers (#28)

Established 1995

Another year of hoping Cam Newton takes them where they hope to go, but another year of waiting til next year.  So close to winning Super Bowl 38, the Panthers have only made the playoffs 4 times, but the Final 4 in 3 of those 4 runs. They don't get there often, but when they do, they make it count.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 03SL, 05C, 08

P: 4
4: 2
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.66 - 18 seasons

Carolina holds the tiebreaker over Detroit because of Super Bowl Appearances, 1-0 .

#29 - Detroit Lions (#29)

As we approach the bottom of our list, we always shake our heads at the Detroit Lions as a team that has seemed to always find the worst possible scenario on their seasons.  If you believe that winning is cyclical, you might argue that the Detroit Lions are on a 60 year cycle.  They appeared to be ready to win for years when they made the playoffs in 2011, but went back to their underachieving ways in 2012.

Total Points: 12
Total Playoff Years: 70, 82, 83, 91C, 93, 94, 95, 97, 99, 11

P: 10
4: 1
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.25

#30 – Arizona/St Louis Cardinals (#30)

The Cardinals, formerly of St Louis, also used Kurt Warner to usher in a brief revival of their franchise (like the Rams). But, it was short-lived, as was the Kevin Kolb era and now they seek the next guy to try and get them out of the bottom handful of teams in this study. To be ranked 30th and only above two expansion franchises speaks to the futility of this team that has had many horrid seasons in its long history.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 74, 75, 82, 98, 08SL, 09

P: 6
4: 0
2: 1
1: 0

Average: 0.21

Arizona holds tie-breaker over Jacksonville due to Super Bowl appearances, 1-0.

#31 – Jacksonville Jaguars (#31)

Established 1995

Jacksonville certainly showed their fans how easy football was when they took off from expansion and went to the playoffs in 4 of their first 5 years with Tom Coughlin and Mark Brunell getting the Jaguars to two AFC Championship Games. Since then, not much of anything has happened for them and the stadium has a real difficult time finding capacity crowds.

Total Points: 10
Total Playoff Years: 96C, 97, 98, 99C, 05, 07

P: 6
4: 2
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.55 per season - 18 seasons

#32 – Houston Texans (32)

Established 2002

Finally, in last place, but at least now on the scoreboard in the last two years, are the Houston Texans. They made their first playoff appearance of their history in 2011 and then backed it up with another, and will need many good seasons to pull out of 32nd place (short of a Super Bowl victory). That being said, they are now on the scoreboard and are feeling good about their future - with 2 playoff victories in 2 years.

Total Points: 2
Total Playoff Years: 11, 12

P: 2
4: 0
2: 0
1: 0

Average: 0.18 - 11 seasons

Explanation of Years:
Just the year means they made the playoffs (1 point). Year followed by “C” means they lost in the Conference Championship Game (3 points), Year followed by “SL” means they lost the Super Bowl (5 points), and Year followed by “S” means they won the Super Bowl (11 points).

Version 11.0

Version 10.0

Version 9.0

Version 8.0

Version 7.0 …

Version 6.0 …
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Tuesday, 5 February 2013

Bag Of Pucks - Feb 5

Posted on 06:32 by Unknown
In an effort to make sure you are reading enough about the Dallas Stars and the NHL, I plan on henceforth to offer my "bag of pucks" to you on a weekly basis throughout the season.  This will be a series of thoughts and opinions and stuff off youtube that might enhance your hockey experience.  Enjoy.

IMPERFECT ATTENDANCE FROM TOP 6

Certainly, the start of the Stars season has not achieved the best case scenarios in our head about their potential team performance.  If making the playoffs this season is a step in the right direction, then 9 points in the first 10 games is just not going to get you there.  They are certainly not in horrible shape, but you would like to think early in the season they would not already be trying to figure out creative ways to work their way into the top 8.

Of course, there are plenty of valid and creative excuses.  For instance, their top 2 centers played in their first game together last night.  Jamie Benn and Derek Roy actually combined for the game winning goal and for the most part, the team's full potential finally looked reasonable in their win in Colorado.  But, nobody imagined it would take 10 games to find 1 where Roy and Benn were both available.  Then the contract and immigration situations with Jamie Benn cost him the first 5 games of the season, and during that time, Roy was hit with an injury that knocked him onto the injured list.

In fact, from that preseason depth chart that showed a "top 6" of Jaromir Jagr, Jamie Benn, and Loui Eriksson on the top line, with Ray Whitney, Derek Roy, and Michael Ryder on the 2nd line, only Eriksson and Ryder have played in every game.  That is pretty hard to believe, given that the season is only 18 days old.  And Ray Whitney, the Stars free agent who has been most impressive early, is now likely out of action until March with a broken bone in his foot.  They just aren't finding many breaks.  Is there a chance we will see all of the Top 6 together in the same game at the same time?  If it happens, it will have to happen in the late stages of the season, because it certainly won't happen in the 1st half.

THE FUTURE IS NOW

The good news about the above bad news is that the roster is currently over-flowing with pieces of the future, I do believe.  Now, let's not confuse this with the youth in Edmonton (that we will see Wednesday night) or anything, but the Stars have about as good a crop of rookies as any group I can remember in the 15 years I have followed this franchise on a daily basis.

21-year old Cody Eakin is not home-grown, but rather acquired in the trade for Mike Ribeiro last summer, when the Stars were looking for a makeover in their pay structure and at center ice.  Ribs had his moments here, for sure, but he was blocking Jamie Benn from getting premium power play time and also not exactly the 2-way center the team wanted in a perfect scenario.  So, they grabbed a few picks and Eakin for Ribeiro, and think they have found a high-motor, 2-way center who is ready to trade paint with the opposition any time he is on the ice.  I have been very pleased with seeing him play all up and down the lineup already, and he looks like he could be an ideal 3rd line center or a fill-in 2nd line center in spells.

22-year old Brenden Dillon is already looking as if he can be an anchor on a blue-line that has so needed anchors for years and year.  He is big (6'3, 228) and strong and willing to match up with anyone in a battle for the puck.  Not only that, but he has reasonable puck skills as we saw again last night as he grabs the puck behind is own goal-line and instantly starts sprinting with confidence out of the zone with the puck in tow.  His Gordie Howe hat-trick from Friday night against Phoenix showed what he is capable of, and what you like most about him is his self-belief.  He really appears to be ready for this moment and is willing to do everything he can to supply the muscle and toughness the Stars have needed, while playing a role where he is now a key penalty killer and capable 2-way defenseman.  I don't want to put too much pressure on him, but I am willing to say that if he just maintains his current level of play, he has a spot locked in here for years to come.  If he improves to a higher level, well, the sky is his limit.  How this undrafted free-agent was snagged by the Stars is a real find for the front office.

20-year old Jamie Oleksiak is the other part of that blue-line rebuild with Dillon who have people hoping for Derian Hatcher and Richard Matvichuk, part 2.  If you cast Oleksiak as Hatcher, we should understand that there are differences in their game.  Oleksiak surely at 6'7, 242 has all of the size needed, but is much better with the puck on his stick than Derian ever was.  However, he does not roll with the mean streak that Hatcher had for all of those fantastic years back in front of Ed Belfour.  But, man, what a skater and puck handler for a man his size.  And with a reach advantage and a very long stick, he also has the ability to take care of anything around him in the defensive zone with little work.  You aren't going to skate around him much because of his fantastic size, and you likely won't be able to buzz the crease much looking for rebounds with his huge frame boxing you out.  I think as he gets older and gets challenged more physically, he will be able to answer force with force more, because right now he looks like the giant who has been called for looking guilty at lower levels and has backed off.  In other words, he engages in very little contact in the first 3 games I have seen, but he is also a 20-year old rookie in the NHL just trying to make sure he doesn't do anything that gets him sent back to Austin.  My only hope with Oleksiak is that they allow him to remain confident through this process.  We need to remember that big defensemen develop very slowly and if you review the early going for other players of his size, you will see that it usually takes a few years.  If he can hold his own at 20, you are really going to love what he is capable of at 24.  This might be that guy who can be your #1 defenseman for the next decade if they do it right.  And if he is, the Stars will always have a chance because teams with legit, 25 minute a night, stud #1 defensemen don't miss the playoffs very often.  And they surely don't grow on trees.

21-year old Reilly Smith is a winger who appears to have tremendous offensive talent.  He clearly is being brought along slowly, but I believe the plan is for him to grab a Top 6 wing spot at training camp next September when free agency offers an opening.  In the meantime, he is figuring out how to contribute with small minutes on the bottom lines, and show his puck skills whenever possible while playing a conservative style (which is all you can do when you are on the 4th line. Nothing, and I mean nothing is worse than the 4th line conceding a goal).  They also will likely yo-yo him to Austin to give him top line minutes down there to keep him sharp, but they clearly really like the kid to perhaps replace Ryder or Jagr if they are not brought back next season.

Those 4 are the best of the bunch who have been up, but Jordie Benn (25) has certainly looked capable as has Antoine Roussel (23) who appeared in his first game Friday, and scored his first goal on his first shot.  He appears abrasive on the forecheck and fast on his skates, so if he is one of the pit bulls thrown over the boards on a 3rd or 4th line to go stir some things up, he might have a home here.

The best part is that there is another bunch of kids down below (Brett Ritchie, Radek Faksa, Alex Chiasson, Jack Campbell, Patrick Nemeth, Matt Fraser, and more) who also appear to have tons of talent who are not that far away either.  In summary, the Stars finally appear to be a team that wants to grow its own, realizing that with a salary cap, that is the best way to find long-term success.  The Stars franchise never has done this since moving to town with any level of conviction, but now they appear to have made it an emphasis.  Perhaps, they looked over to the Texas Rangers recipe and have realized the best way is not the quick fix of free agency.  That will be there to supplement, but it won't be the main source of talent acquisition.

Now, with kids who are ready or on the brink of being ready, we potentially have to most exciting development of all - extreme competition for spots.  For too long, too many veterans have had their spot assured by almost default.  The rank and file members of the roster were journeymen who were surviving in the league but had almost no upside.  Now, the kids at the bottom of the roster are forcing themselves in and serving notice to those above them that they don't intend on being spare parts for long.  We saw with the Mark Fistric trade the first signs of this, where the front-office had to move a veteran along because they knew they had defensemen who were ready to replace him and upgrade right now.  If veterans are blocking kids, you try to move the veterans out if you are playing for the big picture.  If you are playing for now, you might hold off the kids and give the veterans a chance to use their experience as a tool to stay.  But, that competition is healthy for the growth of the organization.

I just hope they focus on the kids more and more so that the Stars can return to being a heavyweight in the years to come as this group grows together around Jamie Benn.

FIGHT OF THE WEEK

John Scott vs Scott Thornton

This one is easy - Buffalo finally answered the call from Boston after the 2011 incident where Milan Lucic ran Ryan Miller without punishment from the Sabres.  Buffalo went and found plenty of muscle for their lineup with Steve Ott handling the pest department and heavyweight sluggo John Scott who is only there for this type of business.  On their first visit to Boston, you knew that this was going to go down and Scott sent a strong message to the Bruins that there is a new sheriff to answer to for running a goalie.  Thornton is still out after this beating, and this gang war is just getting started.



GOAL OF THE WEEK

Brad Marchand, Boston

Same game as the fight of the week, but this is just beautiful.



=========

2 of the Stars next 3 games are in Edmonton against the kids of the Oilers.  They are a fun team to watch, but maybe not a fun team to play against with all of that skill and speed.  Sandwiched in between 2 games at Edmonton is a home game against a Ducks team that has started well even though nobody seemed to expect much from this this year and that home game is this Friday.

Next week, maybe we will answer some emails at sturm1310@me.com -

Until then, go hockey!

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Monday, 4 February 2013

The Morning After: Super Bowl 47

Posted on 07:18 by Unknown
One always must be careful when they are hours from an event to not get carried away with superlatives and labels and proclamations that this was one of the best things someone has ever seen, only to re-read accounts a year or two later and realize that it missed the mark with its historical value.

However, in terms of getting a Super Bowl that seemed to contain just about everything, I would have to believe that Super Bowl 47 will stand the test of time.  This game was filled with everything.  Including a blow-out and a nail-biter in the very same game.  Hard to believe, but this particular Super Bowl continued a string of high drama Super Bowls that goes back now 6 big games.  If you start with the first Patriots-Giants games, continue with Steelers-Cardinals, on through Manning's Pick-6 against the Saints as the Colts were driving to tie with 3:24 to go, the Packer-Steelers, Giants-Patriots again, and now this?  Awesome, awesome stuff.

In the history of the NFL championship game re-labeled the Super Bowl, you have to go back a long, long way to find even 3 consecutive close games that were in doubt late in the 4th Quarter.  In fact, I searched all the way back to World War 2 - long before the 2-minute warning existed - and did not see a string of 3.  So, since we are at 6 and counting, this is a fantastic string of drama we are on.

But, who ever saw this game being full of drama late?  At 28-6, we had thoughts of all of the many blow-outs in Super Bowl history, including several in this very city and this very stadium.  This one had Cowboys-Broncos, Raiders-Eagles, Bears-Patriots, and 49ers-Broncos written all over it early in the 3rd Quarter.

And then the unforgettable story-line of the power outage hit right after Jacoby Jones had appeared to have locked up the Super Bowl MVP award given that he had his handprint on the two most exciting plays of the game to that point.  35 minutes we sat there and wondered what was going to happen next as the Superdome had lost huge grids of lights and power.  CBS scrambled to find anyone who could still use their equipment as it was clear Jim Nantz and Phil Simms could not.  Finally, after plenty of $4 million-a-piece commercials ran in a row, a disheveled Steve Tasker took to the microphone and tried to explain what was happening.

Given that it was only 98 seconds into the 2nd half, it was a very odd stoppage to an already elongated intermission for the Super Bowl and Beyonce.  The effects of the 2nd intermission and the almost 90 minutes the Ravens offense went between snaps will be long debated, but now, given that they survived the 49ers rally, it will be but a footnote in history.

It was 28-6 when the lights returned, only for the 49ers to then score on the first 3 possessions that started after play resumed.  Michael Crabtree broke tackles and scored, then Frank Gore barreled in on a beautiful sweep, and then the Niners stubbed their toe and settled for a FG that was first missed and then made after a penalty for running into the kicker, putting the score at 28-23, Ravens, with 3:04 left in the 3rd Quarter.

At this juncture of the game, we would find out plenty about the Ravens.  In particular, we would find out plenty about their coach, John Harbaugh and their QB, Joe Flacco.  They would not be required to play the final 18 minutes of the game against a rolling 49ers squad that has momentum and swagger, and arguably a better roster.

Harbaugh, one year older than his more famous younger brother, Jim, had a number of occasions this year where he had to make decisions.  And there are many where he decided to make the very aggressive choice.  The biggest one over the course of the season was to fire his offensive coordinator, the very respected Cam Cameron, on December 10th, when the team sat at 9-4 and had a 2 game lead in their division.

I can only imagine the controversy this might have caused locally, if the Cowboys would ever do something so bold and dare I say, reckless, when sitting so close to the playoffs with a divisional crown seemingly in the bag.  They then lost 2 of their final 3 games to finish 10-6 and entered the playoffs with the #4 seed and certainly could not be called one of the hottest teams entering the tournament, since they had lost 4 of 5 in December.

Harbaugh also called a game yesterday that seemed opposite of risk-aversion.  He was rolling the dice with a fake field goal that seemed ridiculous at the time, up 14-3.  He also called or at least authorized the call of the 3rd and 1 back-shoulder fade to Anquan Boldin, when it appeared to be a perfect time to ask Ray Rice to get you 1 yard after Jim Harbaugh properly challenged a spot the play before.  This call with 7 minutes to go is another case - like the fake FG - that if it doesn't work, it will be one of the plays that will get him barbecued.  It is a classic case of stepping away from conventional wisdom and taking a chance.  A chance that shows faith in a QB and a WR to make a play and then players who deliver.

Which brings us to his QB, Flacco, who seems to do a nice job of accomplishing plenty in this league without ever getting credit.  He plays a style that seems under-valued in a league that loves to proclaim QBs the be-all, end-all of every franchise.  And here he is, with 9 playoff victories under his belt just 5 seasons into his career, with a Super Bowl ring that he did plenty of the heavy lifting.

So, was he improperly ignored before this last month?  Yes and No.  Here is Flacco, with a 5-4 playoff record to this juncture, with a QB rating in the post-season of 70.  The league average is in the low-80s, so 70 is pretty bad.  During that time, he averaged about 170 yards per game and totaled 8 TDs and 8 INTs in the post-season.  To compare, Mark Sanchez has a playoff rating of 94, with 9 TDs and 3 INTs over a similar span and 192 yards per game.  And both were placed in a bin of QBs who were winning games in the post-season, but were they really winning them or were they simply the QB on a team that was winning them?

On to 2012, where Flacco became the only QB ever to have 4 playoff games in one post-season with a passer rating over 100.  He averaged 285 yards per game in this tournament and had 11 TDs without a single interception.  In fact, in beating Peyton Manning on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  In beating Tom Brady on the road, he threw 3 TDs.  And finally, last night, with the world watching, he threw 3 TDs in taking down the San Francisco 49ers.

After 5 seasons, he has equaled the win total of Tom Brady for most playoff victories (9) at that point of a career.  Think about that for a second.  And those 3rd Down plays he made in the 4th Quarter, including the check-off to the fade to Boldin helped them secure the game.

A game that was certainly in doubt on the final 49ers drive.  Colin Kaepernick had an excellent game, in my opinion, as well.  Even when they were down 28-6, it was extremely difficult to say he was the reason why.  Sure, he sailed an interception to Ed Reed on a throw down the middle, but overall, he was putting passes right on the money and was even betrayed a few times by receivers that were asked to make difficult catches and were unable to do so.  But for a rookie, we have seen that the 49ers appear to have a real stud with which to build their offense around for years to come.

Jim Harbaugh also followed his gut this season and had the resolve to make that change at QB that seemed to leave conventional thinking as well.  But, he was rewarded with it by now having a clear picture of what his young QB is capable of before he had to choose what to do with his veteran.  Now, as their season ends in disappointment, there is no question that Alex Smith will need to go elsewhere to ever start again.

But, they will be kicking themselves this entire off-season for that final sequence.  They took the ball from their own 20 with 4:19 to go, down 34-29.  A touchdown likely gives them the Super Bowl, provided they don't score too soon.  And they almost did after a long Crabtree reception and a strong run from Gore took the ball down to the Baltimore 7 with 2:39 left.

From there, a run moves them to the 5 at the 2 minute warning.  Now, they have 3 throws to Michael Crabtree on the final 3 offensive snaps of the game.  All 3 are incomplete and all 3 were not really even close.  In fact, in doing so, the 49ers also wasted a timeout that pretty much sealed their fate.  Had everything gone the same except for the wasted timeout, they likely would have still had another drive after another Ted Ginn return from mid-field.

Should the 49ers have run the ball again?  Or at least put a play on that allows Kaepernick to be at his best with a run/pass option?  Well, the Ravens made sure that if he did anything, it was going to be under enormous pressure because again, Baltimore is not afraid to roll the dice.  They blitzed hard on 3rd down and harder on 4th.  If anything, you would have liked to have found Vernon Davis, but he never even looked in that direction on the backside from his triple receivers.

But, with only 1 timeout left, the Ravens did not have to ever return the ball with enough time for even one more snap.

In the end, the Ravens had built up enough to hold on.  Barely.  The game went to its final seconds and both teams played a heck of a game.

The Ravens now have their 2nd Super Bowl trophy and the 49ers remain at 5.  New Orleans, power outage notwithstanding, had a fantastic week and is back in the Super Bowl mix after a long wait.

And here we sit, 213 days before the next meaningful NFL game is played.

Sorry to end this recap on such a downer.  Hurry back, NFL.
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Friday, 1 February 2013

One More Thing...The Hall of Fame

Posted on 07:28 by Unknown
You are going to hear quite a few media types using cliches today - as they are wont to do - and one will be along of lines of saying, "now that all the hype is behind us, all we have left is the football game."

And they would be forgetting one very important item that must be covered in this space.  At least, one of my favorite portions of Super Bowl week every year and something that I never get tired of discussing; Hall of Fame induction Day.

I feel like the other sports have rather random ways of announcing their hall of fame inductees and they often announce them in their offseason on a day when you aren't really thinking about that sport.  But, not my football.  Oh, no.  Football properly takes advantage of having its universe all located in the same city for the Super Bowl and makes the day before the big game the day where they ask their exclusive voters to assemble for an all-morning and much of the afternoon voting session that will end in that year's class.  They will be inducted at the dawn of the next season in Canton for the first preseason game, but the year ends as the new class is announced.  It is perfect in its symmetry if you ask me.

So, while many are typing up their game previews (I certainly feel this is the 49ers game to lose.  And it is not about Kaepernick as much as it is about the team concept is where San Francisco has consistently been the best team in football this year.  That is not to say that their QB doesn't matter, it is just that it doesn't matter AS MUCH as other teams.  They are loaded everywhere and have two more important things that teams like the Cowboys can only dream about: health and depth.  They were the single healthiest team in the league this year which only amplifies the talent discrepancies it enjoys at so many positions.  Then, in the rare cases where they did need a proper backup, they were able to use their very high draft picks to solidify their openings.  The Ravens are built much the same way, but as we did see many moons ago when the Cowboys had them beat in Baltimore, they are just not that solid on the defense as we are led to believe by the media.  They are a team that is on a very nice run and they also do have the feel as the annual "hot team in the playoffs", but I will resist the urge to fall for the Ray Lewis narrative and stick with my eyeballs and take San Francisco, 24-20.  It should be an excellent game that pretty much nobody predicted this year.  And just so you take my prediction no more seriously than you should, I had New England beating Green Bay in this game back in August when we had to file our season picks.), I will get after this year's Hall of Fame vote.

There was a time from a Cowboys perspective that Dallas was wildly under-represented in Canton.  Sure, there were some players who were in the Hall of Fame who played a small portion of their career in Dallas like Lance Alworth, Herb Adderley, Forrest Gregg, Tommy McDonald, Mike Ditka, and Jackie Smith.  But, none of those guys were guys who would be considered Cowboys by visitors of the Hall.  Jackie may have had his biggest moment with the Cowboys, but he only played one season here and had such a bigger career than that one moment in the end-zone of Super Bowl 13 would suggest.  Google him and be impressed.

But, for a team that had such a great track record of success, as of 2004, the only actual Cowboys' players who were in the Hall of Fame were: Bob Lilly (inducted in 1980), Roger Staubach (1985), Tony Dorsett (1994), Randy White (1994), and Mel Renfro (1996).

That number was nice, but frankly, when the Houston Oilers could boast a similar number, it did not seem to properly reflect the amount of winning the franchise had done over the years.  Look at Pittsburgh and Oakland - these are teams who were able to get way more players in from those dominant teams of the 1970's and 1980's.  But, the Cowboys hit a wall for almost a decade.

Then, in 2006, in Miami, the wall came tumbling down.  That year, it was Troy Aikman and Rayfield Wright.  In 2007, Michael Irvin got the call.  In 2009, Bob Hayes was honored.  In 2010, it was Emmitt Smith and in 2011, Deion Sanders was inducted.  Sanders, of course, is likely remembered more for playing with several teams, but everyone else were clear Cowboys.  So, in just a handful of years, the number of Cowboys went from 5 to 10.  Things seemed to be equalized.  The cries of the "Anti-Cowboys bias" have been quieted quite a bit.

That doesn't mean that all of the cases are closed.  There are still many around here - including me as I have written several times - who believe Drew Pearson needs to be in.  At this point, he will need to go the route of Bob Hayes with the senior committee, but I still can't believe that a guy with moments as big as his would not eventually get in.

Harvey Martin also seems like a worthy inductee and we could actually make quite a list of others while we are at it that, but there are two more who might get in tomorrow when the committee convenes for the 2013 session.

The first is one of those no-brainers who will be in either this year or next year.  He is one of those "it is simply a matter of time" guys because in the last 20 years, nobody has been a better offensive lineman than Larry Allen.  A giant human with even larger feats of strength than guys his size, Allen dominated his opponents with great ease and routine.  Having played left tackle, left guard, right guard, and right tackle, it was pretty clear that Allen could fix any positional issue the Cowboys had over his long career, and in his prime was the best of the best.

He was named to both the all-decade team of the 1990s and the all decade team of the 2000s.  At the end of his stay in Dallas he wasn't at his peak, but if you consider his 14 years as a whole, Allen is exceeded at guard only by one player - John Hannah - for All-Pro teams.  Hannah made 10, whereas Allen was on 7 which tied him with Gene Upshaw (Jim Parker had 8 as a tackle/guard).

This season, 3 offensive linemen are up for induction.  Will Shields is in his 2nd year of eligibility and has credentials that indicate his wait won't be long, too, and Jonathan Ogden is in his 1st year.  The believe is that 2 get in, so while I feel Allen is in this class, there is no predicting the voters choice.

The other Cowboys interest is for Charles Haley.  His notable talking point is that he has 5 Super Bowl victories: 23, 24, 27, 28, and 30.  That is fantastic, and he was in on at least one sack in 4 of those Super Bowls.  He also has 100.5 sacks and although 100 seems like a magic number for Hall of Fame consideration, don't be so sure.

Leslie O'Neal has 132, Simeon Rice has 122, Sean Jones 113, Greg Townsend 109, Trace Armstrong 106, and yes, even Jim Jeffcoat has 102.5.  And if you knew that Jeffcoat had more career sacks than Charles Haley, then I congratulate you.  Because that surprised me.

Now, guys like Howie Long (84) have fewer sacks than Haley and are in the Hall of Fame, but Greg Ellis also has 84, so we must assume that sack totals do not tell all.  Which likely lead us back to 7 championship games and 5 Super Bowl rings.

The other oddity of Haley's career was that on those 1992 and 1993 Cowboys teams that are considered amongst the greatest single-season teams of this lifetime, he only finished 3rd and 4th in sacks.  In 1992, Jeffcoat had 10.5, Tony Tolbert 8.5, and Haley had 6.  In 1993, Tolbert had 7.5, Jeffcoat 6, Jimmie Jones 5.5, and Haley just 4.  Those numbers are hard to process.

Now, having just viewed Super Bowl 27, I will attest to the fact that Haley was a monster that day and All-Pro tackle Will Wolford was beaten badly.  So, when the chips were down, he performed, but there are some production numbers that are problematic.

Meanwhile, for all of Howie Long's points earned as a personality who endeared himself to the public with smiles and television time, Haley will have a hill to overcome in that department as well.  As we know, the media votes, so if you spent most of your career trying to scare the media or at least be difficult, then hopefully the media is not vindictive (lol).

My best guess at the class - which means who I expect to get in, not who I believe SHOULD be voted in is likely to be: Larry Allen, Cris Carter, Art Modell, Jonathan Ogden, Dave Robinson, and Michael Strahan.

I figure that this prediction will be about as reliable as the Patriots beating the Packers on Sunday, but just know that I will be locked in on Saturday as the new class is announced.  I personally hope Charles Haley gets the call, but I assume that Strahan will vault past with his 141 sacks, New York personality, and big Super Bowl moment.  But, perhaps I am wrong.  And that doesn't even consider Bill Parcells, Warren Sapp, Tim Brown, or Andre Reed.

As you can see, there are more worthy candidates than there are spaces available.  And that won't change as a new crop is eligible every year.

I still look forward to the day where this process is fully televised, but the voters think this would irreparably damage the ability for voters to speak freely.  That may be the case, but it sure seems like transparency is one way to take away vendettas or at least make people with them be accountable.

Either way, the discussion are fun for those of us who are not hanging on every vote.  Pity the players who must, until their day arrives - if, in fact, it does.




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