The Morning After: Cowboys 36, Giants 31 (1-0)

Takeaways!  Takeaways!  And more takeaways!

Monte Kiffin and Rod Marinelli coached it, the players listened, and look, in the season opener, there were more gifts given by the generous New York Giants offense than the Cowboys would normally get in a month!

Is all that glitters really gold?  Are the Cowboys now the Chicago and Tampa teams that made this scheme famous for its punishment and its constant theft of the ball?  And if all you have to do is emphasize it, what were all those other coaches doing around here?  6 takeaways left Eli Manning shaking his head, Tom Coughlin cussing up a storm, and it greatly assisted the Cowboys finally beating the rivals from New York in the new stadium in their 5th attempt, 36-31.

For one night, no one is goofing about the Kiffin hire and the potential impacts that could be felt in this tight NFC East.  If the Cowboys can go from their mark last season of 16 takeaways and move it up to the league average of 25, then doesn't it stand to reason that would be the difference in winning the division after coming up a game short (or a Dez finger-tip short) in 2012?

Well, maybe.  Actually, what people don't talk about when they look at takeaways is that the Cowboys have been reasonably close to the NFL average over the last stretch of years, despite perception.  In 2012, they were woefully bad in taking the ball away, but replacement-level players at most positions in the 2nd half of 2012 certainly didn't help that figure at all - nor the overall legacy of Rob Ryan.  But, a broader look shows that from 2007-2011 in a 5-season stretch, the Cowboys took the ball away 127 times which is under the league average mark of 133, but only by about one takeaway every 13 games.

In a league where the number of turnovers has diminished greatly over the last decade but still decides most games, your average NFL team takes the ball away 25 times a season.  And the Cowboys took the ball from the Giants 6 times last night.  That number is absurd and puts them on pace for 96.   But, if they can get a short field even twice a game in 2013, you will see a dramatic change in fortune for this entire squad, guaranteed.

We assume that Sunday Night was a beautiful confluence of events - some random, some not - that fell in the Cowboys favor.  Both teams fumbled multiple times, but the Cowboys recovered their two, and the Giants lost all three of their miscues.  That, we have learned from years of following the sport, is random.  There is no team that is better or worse at recovering fumbles over a large sample.

But, causing fumbles and interceptions?  Ripping the ball away from the carrier like Nick Hayden and Barry Church did that caused David Wilson to have a spot over on the sideline next to his coach?  Well, those are not random at all.  Those are players deciding that they aren't just trying to stop the ball carrier, they want to rob him, too.  And that flair is what any Dallas fan has to be excited about from a defense that is comprised of both star players and unknowns.  They attacked last night and showed an energy that was quite impressive.  The very optimistic idea that they could "get there with 4" actually happened;  the Cowboys front 4 - despite no Jay Ratliff or Anthony Spencer - generated a reasonable amount of pressure on the Giants banged-up OL all night, causing Eli some distress as he threw a giant yardage total - and 3 crucial interceptions.

There is so much more to discuss, but you simply have to lead with your defense shortening your field on a number of occasions and stopping the Giants enough - despite some very gaudy yardage numbers.  And if someone like me is going to blow off the idea of lots of yards - like the last meeting between these two teams when Romo and the offense rolled up plenty of yards but were foiled by too many giveaways, well, then we can easily see the parallels between last night and previous Giants' visits.

It was a game that might require multiple visits to fully digest, but maybe the difference in the game came down to a 3rd and 11 for the Cowboys at the Giants' 14 yard line late in the 1st Quarter.  It was a play that made many recall other prime-time affairs where Tony Romo and his receivers might not fully be on the same page with a play call or the intended route versus throw.  On this occasion, rookie Terrence Williams was receiving his first NFL throw, but he was not looking when the ball arrived.  Instead, he thought he was running a slant and go.  Romo was throwing for a slant.  Williams, thinking it was a fake, never crossed the face of the corner, and Prince Amukamara couldn't believe his good fortune as Romo threw the ball right at him.  The ball caromed off Amukamara and right to new safety Ryan Mundy who was off to the races at his own 8 and nothing but turf in front of him and a caravan of blue jerseys.  But 92 yards is a long run and despite having a substantial head start on DeMarco Murray - who was running a flair to the right of the play (the opposite side of the field) - was chased down barely at the 1-yard line.  Tremendous hustle by Murray that was then capitalized on in the next few snaps as Nick Hayden stuffed a run and George Selvie pulled down Eli for a sack and the Giants had to settle for a field goal - all thanks to DeMarco not giving up on a play.

And that is certainly not all Murray did last night by any stretch.  20 carries of hard running and 10 more targets from Romo in the passing game means that Murray wakes up a man with plenty of bruises.  But he also gave plenty of bruises out and ran with that style that makes you think he is the real deal.  I would take issue with those that suggest the run game was unproductive.  23 carries for 87 yards is not ideal, but it isn't horrid.  It also dominates time of possession, keeps your defense fresh, and displays a physicality that the Cowboys have lacked for a few seasons.

Which leads us to the offensive line.  I look forward to breaking things down much further as the week goes on and the coach's film becomes available, but my first impressions were quite passable.  I found the pass protection generally very solid, starting with Tyron Smith doing well against a banged up Jason Pierre Paul or whoever took him on.  But inside, with new left guard Ronald Leary and rookie center Travis Frederick, one would have to suggest that both played incredibly well.  Leary, in particular, has a ways to go to handle everything and everyone that is thrown at him from week to week, but the strength and battle that both of those guys appear to have is the most welcome of additions to this offensive group.

With no Brian Waters available for the opener, Mackenzy Bernadeau had to play at right guard, and Linval Joseph abused him on the way to a Romo sack late in the game, and Doug Free will get largely blamed for the play that might have broken a few ribs of Romo's in the 2nd Quarter - although I don't know if he is to blame at all.

Free was in pass protection and had Mathias Kiwanuka blocked pretty well, as linebacker Jacquian Williams blitzed on a rare occasion.  But, instead of running at Romo and being picked up by a waiting DeMarco Murray, he ran away from the QB and right at Doug Free in a unique stunt idea.  Free was knocked off his feet - as any tackle would be if blindsided by a sprinting linebacker while trying to block someone in a different direction and that left Murray to try to sort out what was happening and to pick up Kiwanuka which did not work out well.  Kiwanuka pushed Murray aside and then put his helmet/shoulder pads right into Romo's ribs and looked like he did some considerable damage.  You never see a WLB and a LDE stunt to that extent and there is no question that the element of surprise is what made that stunt work so well.  They never blitz, and they definitely never blitz/stunt.  Sometimes their scheme gets you, and they almost took out Romo in the process (medical exams pending).

It was a game that certainly did not come easily.  Right until Brandon Carr picked off and returned yet another interception for a touchdown, it seemed that the Giants were staying alive and threatening another gutting comeback - just like their win in Arlington in 2011 where they were down 2 scores in the 4th Quarter and still pulled everything off perfectly to win.

But, credit the Cowboys.  Credit them for playing with a lead for most of the night.  In fact, they led for 28:21 of the game, which may not be a number that impresses you until you hear this next stat.  In all of 2012, in all 8 home games, they led their opponent for a total of 36:36.  Trust me, last night was a rarity to lead for that long.

At different times, Romo, Dez Bryant, and Morris Claiborne all laid on the turf and appeared to be injured.  We don't know if any are serious, but Romo and Bryant both looked pretty serious when they happened, and so we are quickly reminded how physical this sport is when the regular season hits start happening.  Bryant, with 8 targets for 4 receptions and 22 yards, had a quiet night, but he will have plenty to say about this season as it goes.  For now, he is starting to see that teams like the Giants are going to hang a safety over his corner all night long and take their chances with making Miles Austin and the running game.

It was a fantastic win overall.  It was a divisional home game on a Sunday Night, so it felt bigger than 1 out of 16, because it is.  This team needs confidence and results quickly.  And with September maybe the easiest of the 4 months in terms of opponents and strength of schedule, it is vital to get out of the gates on a dead sprint.  Sure, the Giants were generous, but you must take advantage of that generosity, and that wasn't happening early in the game.

We knew there were going to be issues in the secondary, and the corner blitz by Orlando Scandrick that ended up with a 70-yard Touchdown to Victor Cruz demonstrated that quite clearly.  That growth will need to continue against what we assume will be lesser passing attacks until Denver comes to town.

But, when you withstand the weapons of New York, get a divisional win under your belt, and make key plays at key moments, you try to let yourself enjoy a win for a few moments before you worry about what lies ahead.  This team has a fan base that is excellent at seeing the cup half empty, but I would argue that there was plenty to like about last night and it starts with the overall swarming energy that the squad had for much of the night.  From Dwayne Harris and JJ Wilcox covering kicks and punts like madmen to previously out-of-work defensive linemen playing like they are not going to waste this golden opportunity.  I saw plenty to clean up, but after being reminded again yesterday how close the teams in this league are, there is never cause for excess negativity following a tough win like that over a hated foe.

Things need to continue to develop and the injuries obviously need to be avoided, but overall, that was exactly what the Cowboys needed last night.

They are out of the gates with a victory.

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Romo Starts Up That Hill Again

250 days.

I know it seems that football season is longer than ever before and that in someways it is going year-round.  

Well, I am telling you that you have gone to sleep and awakened to a new day 250 times since the Cowboys spit the proverbial bit in Washington on December 30, 2012, in a game that Tony Romo might just take to his QB-career grave.

If you need a reminder of how I summed it up 250 mornings ago, here is a brief snip of this larger post:

this offensive performance must be positioned as nothing short of a failure.  The job, in particular by Tony Romo - the man who is most responsible for the Cowboys being in this position to begin with - was just not nearly at the level it needed to be to win a tough divisional road game on the final night of the season.  

Romo, as I am sure you are well aware, picked a horrendous time for his 4th multi-interception game of 2012.  In those 4 games, as you might imagine, the Cowboys were winless.  The first 3 were home games against the Bears, Giants, and these same Redskins, but this one had all of the trimmings of a playoff game and the picks were all damaging and key.  

But, no interception of Romo's career might hurt as much as the last one of 2012.  For that was a pick that comes down to that moment that everyone dreams when they discuss the credentials of their favorite QB.  They always ask the question, "can this guy get your team down the field on that one drive with everything on the line?"
There it was. 3:35 to play in the game, down 21-18.  A quick 14 yard gainer to Witten down the middle  gave the Cowboys breathing room out to their own 29.  And on 1st and 10 from their own 29, they hurried to the line with shotgun again with 3:06 to go. 

The Redskins bring tons of pressure all game and that particular blitz was seen on several occasions.  In fairness to Romo, if he can get the ball over the top of Rob Jackson, the right outside linebacker who starts toward Romo and then peels off to stay with Murray, then Murray will have the ability to run a long, long ways.  The Redskins are defending with recklessness and despite their success, if the Cowboys can break one play on this final drive, they can win the game and the NFC East.
But, because of the pressure, Romo is back-pedaling.  This will not allow him to measure his throw with any amount of precision.  And because he is off balance, his lofted throw is short and Jackson is able to recover and and attack the ball, securing it for the biggest play of his career. 

There are a number of problems with this decision from your QB, with the most obvious one being that it is 1st Down.  You cannot likely survive a sack, but this is where you either see Witten open over the blitz or you throw the ball into the sideline.  You cannot make a risky throw on 1st Down with everything on the line.  And you also cannot excuse him because of some Jim Haslett ambush call.  That blitz was as predictable as could be after seeing his calls for 57 minutes already.  Romo just got it wrong at the most inopportune time - possibly of his career. 

And this is where the Cowboys' QB is again; In a place where he will unfortunately have to serve as a piñata for the next several months as people who barely watched him will latch on to the easy narrative rather than considering a very strong season running an offense that made him over-come obstacle after obstacle all year long.  He is good enough to carry a team for months at a time, so how come he isn't good enough to perform at an efficient level in this one-game scenario last night against an equally-battered team? 

I will continue to say that the Quarterback is not holding this franchise back - not at any level.  But, that doesn't mean that he didn't let them down last night.  In fact, this was a spot where we knew that they needed their best players to be their best players, and as much as I appreciate the challenges he has to deal with, he simply had to do better than he did with his opportunities on this Sunday night. 

Making you read that again certainly wasn't nice, now was it?

But, as much as has been written here about all of the different components and elements of the 2013 Dallas Cowboys, I would be kidding you and myself if I really allowed the season to begin without one single entry about the most important player on the field, and of course, that is Romo.

He does get ripped mercilessly other places.  And perhaps, for that reason, I avoid writing about him too often.  But, that is disingenuous if I over-do it.

No, I don't think the Cowboys lose because of Romo.  I never have.  I am also aware and have written about his track record and bottom line numbers.  

Yes, I think that Romo is the reason that this team has been and will be always in the playoff mix as long as he plays at this level.  So, while I enjoy writing about DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray in the preseason as well as countless discussion about 53 man roster construction, special teams, and the idea of having some injury luck, let us not forget this basic and obvious fact:

If Tony Romo is good, the Cowboys can win their division and have a chance to "make a run."  If he doesn't, well, the rest of this doesn't much matter when it comes to arriving at any desired destinations.

He is now 33.  He is better than most will ever admit to, but those of us who consider ourselves loyalists, we have to be willing to look at moments like his last game in 2012 and demand better - rather than look to blame Jerry Jones or the front office or the offensive line.

Of course, those departments leave plenty to be desired.  But, he knows the drill by now.  The job is that he is going to have to be great.  He is going to have help at times, and others he is going to have to drag the team to victory.  He will be able to throw picks, but not many of them.  He will never get the week-to-week credit and he will have to like it.  In exchange, he will make an absurd amount of money for a player who is 33 and has been a part of one playoff win.  I assume it is a deal he is ok with.  Otherwise, he could have passed on the extension and attempted to find a new situation in a city with less of a challenge.

It is interesting that so many people focus on his interception total last year, which, admittedly, led the league with 19.  But, he also threw 648 passes (his previous career high was 550) and therefore saw his interception rate at a very reasonable 2.9% - better than several starters and right near his career rate of 2.8%.  This is not where the league leaders are - there were 6 starters who had below 2%, but he doesn't have to change much.

He just needs to prove his quality and see it through.  He needs to get a chance to right the wrong of Week 17 in Washington.

This time, it is hard to say that his offense hasn't been improved.  More weapons, all 3 of the interior 3 OL have been addressed.

So now, as you can make a case for 7-9 or 10-6, I have to attach any predictions to the health of Tony Romo and his performance when things break down around him.  I am going to sit on 9-7 this year, and mostly because I think he will keep them in games.

But, at age 33, I know he is feeling that this career train is traveling fast.  Urgency and maturity will push him to new heights.  And having a weapon like Dez Bryant may revive his form of 2007 when he had a dominant Terrell Owens - a time when we wondered if Romo was the best QB in the NFC.

On the eve of his next challenge, I perhaps saved the most obvious points for last.  He is vital to their success and he is the guy who keeps them in the mix.  But, being in the mix has not been good enough for anyone and here is his next chance to change his perception.  One NFC Championship game, at least, and suddenly, the commentary on him would soften.

Otherwise, those that seem to make their living constructing a misleading and misguided narrative about his career will continue to have the last word.

And certainly, we don't need that.

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2013 NFL Quarterback Win Total Post

For no other reason than I want to post this every Opening Day, here are the records, playoff records, and Super Bowl titles for the 32 QBs who are their team's respective "QB1".

I know, I know - unfair stats and there is nothing more unreasonable than hanging wins and losses on a Quarterback, but this is the world in which we live and the blog I want to make available to those who find it interesting or a reference guide for bar-room discussions.

NFC EAST

Team	Starter QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NYG	E Manning	135	78-57	8-3	2
PHI	Vick	103	56-44-1	2-3	0
DAL	Romo	93	55-38	1-3	0
WAS	Griffin	15	9-6	0-1	0

NFC NORTH

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
MIN	Ponder	26	12-14	0-0	0
CHI	Cutler	93	51-42	1-1	0
GB	Rodgers	78	52-26	6-3	1
DET	Stafford	45	17-28	0-1	0

NFC SOUTH

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NO	Brees	169	99-70	5-4	1
ATL	Ryan	78	56-22	1-4	0
TB	Freeman	56	24-32	0-0	0
CAR	Newton	32	13-19	0-0	0

NFC WEST

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
SF	Kaepernick	7	5-2	2-1	0
SEA	Wilson	16	11-5	1-1	0
STL	Bradford	42	15-26-1	0-0	0
ARI	Palmer	121	54-67	0-2	0

And now, to the AFC:

AFC EAST

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
NE	Brady	175	136-39	17-7	3
BUF	Manuel	0	0-0	0-0	0
NYJ	Sanchez	62	33-29	4-2	0
MIA	Tannehill	16	7-9	0-0	0

AFC NORTH

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
PIT	Roethlisberger	126	87-39	10-4	2
BAL	Flacco	80	54-26	9-4	1
CLE	Weeden	15	5-10	0-0	0
CIN	Dalton	32	19-13	0-2	0

AFC SOUTH

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
IND	Luck	16	11-5	0-1	0
TEN	Locker	11	4-7	0-0	0
JAC	Gabbert	24	5-19	0-0	0
HOU	Schaub	82	44-38	1-1	0

AFC WEST

Team	Starting QB	Starts	Record	Playoff Rec	Rings
SD	Rivers	112	70-42	3-4	0
OAK	Flynn	2	1-1	0-0	0
DEN	P Manning	224	154-70	9-11	1
KC	A Smith	75	38-36-1	1-1	0

Enjoy without prejudice.  

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Growing Your Own NFL Teams

When we roll out statistics these days, the bottom line question will always be: "What does it mean when it comes to winning games?"

As it should be.

Any way we measure a team should always be put to the test of who is winning games and how they are winning them and whether or not this particular statistic has anything to do with that end goal.

Well, in the National Football League, I believe there is a tried and true principle that is only becoming more important as we go that is claimed to be closely tied to winning.  And I wanted to see if it was true, because while I believe in it deeply, what shows up in the standings is the truth.

That truth is being a homegrown franchise is the best way to build a consistent winner.  In other words, those teams that build their roster primarily from their own draft picks and own college free agents will always win more games over the long haul.  The reason and logic being that you do not participate in the poor investment of free agency which throws off your structure and brings in players who do not have equity in the organization.  It can also mean that football players are of most use at the least cost to their franchise in the 4 years immediately after leaving college.  Either way, if you grow your own, you are a franchise that is "always in the mix".  If you don't, you likely are not - using other team's castoffs and trying to patch-work a team of vagabonds.  It is very difficult to build a mansion with your neighbor's garbage.

Now, in the field of arguing, sample sizes are thrown together to prove and disprove things, and many have said that you can get statistics to say anything.  Maybe, but we want to be a bit more discriminating and use broader samples to make sure that we see the bigger picture.  Therefore, let's use 5-year results.

On the other hand, we also must understand that players have ages and their ages cause their effectiveness to fluctuate and therefore what is true today may not be true in a few years.  Whether this particular measurement is a predictor is anyone's guess.

I broke down all 32 rosters to see how many of the players were in fact, homegrown.  How many were the team's own picks, how many were college free agents, and how many were brought in from afar.

We found that the average NFL team's final 53-man roster contained 33 home grown players or 62% of the roster.  The very high end - Green Bay and Atlanta each had 43 players make their final 53 who were their own players from college - was 81% and the very low end was the Indianapolis Colts who have put just 25 players on their 53-man roster for 47%.

Of course, you might say that the Colts have done plenty of winning in the last 5 years (49 wins) and this is not helping your correlation theory, much.

True.  So let's list the top 5 and bottom 5 and see what turns up.

TOP 5 HOMEGROWN (Wins Are Regular Season Only)

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Atlanta	43	56
Green Bay	43	53
Pittsburgh	40	53
Baltimore	39	54
Houston	39	45
Top 5	40.8	52.2

BOTTOM 5 HOMEGROWN

Team	Home Grown	5 Yr Wins
Indianapolis	25	49
Washington	26	33
Detroit	27	22
Tampa Bay	28	33
NY Jets	29	43
Bottom 5	27	36

So, the Top 5 teams in the NFL for having their own talent win 52.2 games on average for the last 5 years and the Bottom 5 win 36 games.  That is a 10 win season and a 7 win season for 5 years straight to get to those numbers.  

In today's NFL, that is rather significant, don't you think?

So, where does that leave the Dallas Cowboys?  Actually, with 36 players on their roster who are life-long Dallas Cowboys players on their 53, they aren't in bad shape.  That ranks them in a group at about 10th best in the NFL and in very strong shape with teams that are also in the playoff mix generally, Minnesota, Cincinnati, New England, the NY Giants, and maybe a team that is on the rise in the St Louis Rams.

The Cowboys have 23 of their own picks on their roster.  That is below the NFL average of 26.2, but where they really clean up is that they rank 2nd in the NFL behind St Louis in their own college free agents on the roster.  They have 13 of them and the NFL average is 7.  

People often ask me if the Cowboys get enough credit for finding college free agents and it is a good question.  How many can say they found their franchise QB as a college free agent?  But, when you get to 13, you do have to counter with asking how they have that many spaces available?  If you only have 53 spots, it would seem that you would need to miss on a lot of actual draft picks to have vacancies to accommodate that many undrafted players.  So, yes, they have more undrafted players, but you could argue it is much easier to make Dallas' roster than a team that is hitting on its picks more often.  

In fact, only New Orleans has more college free agents (from any originating franchise) on their 2013 53-man squad with 23.  Dallas has 19 - tied with Seattle.  The NFL Average for undrafted players on a roster is 14, and the low is the NY Giants with just 9 players who did not get selected by anyone in their draft.

Back to our study, when we look at the worst at homegrown talent, the bottom 10 is completed with Oakland, Denver, Jacksonville, Carolina, and Chicago. Those 10 teams are all franchises that currently have 30 or fewer players on their roster who are homegrown.

There are obviously wildcards in this mix.  But, tell me, which of the following 2 groups do you associate with generally winning 10 games and which is generally losing 10 games?

Top 10 in Homegrown Talent: Falcons, Packers, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Patriots, Giants, Bengals, Vikings, and Cowboys

These teams have 489 wins in the last 5 years - 9.8 wins per year, per team.

Bottom 10 in Homegrown Talent: Colts, Buccaneers, Lions, Redskins, Jets, Bears, Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, and Raiders

These teams have 358 wins in the last 5 years - 7.1 wins per year, per team.

There is much more to this study, and much more to winning (Peyton Manning seems to help), but when you wonder what the teams that win consistently have in common, look here.  Depth is what covers teams.  Depth is due to solid drafting and cheap players filling out the back half of your roster, but not just cheap - Quality and cheap.  

You win by securing players early and then letting them grow for you.  Pulling through your competition's trash can yield results on occasion, but generally not enough over the long haul.  The Cowboys are starting to figure this out.  Let's see if they can stay on course.

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Your 2013 Dallas Cowboys!

After giving the personnel department a few days to figure everything out, the Cowboys have finally settled on their week 1 roster.  For historical purposes, we will actually have to stick with the 53 men who the Cowboys turned into the league on Saturday at the 5 pm deadline, but as we said last week, a proper NFL roster is in the constant state of development and is never fully set.

In fact, once we get through the week 1 games, then a number of business thresholds are met.  For the vested veteran - a player with 4+ years of service time, his salary becomes guaranteed if he is on the 53 for Week 1.  This causes teams to have their eyes on a veteran but to not actually he bring him to town until September 9th, the day after their 1st game.  Players signed in that scenario may be signed under an arrangement where they make their salary only in weeks where they are on the roster.  That may not seem like an issue that is a big deal to many of us and worth the trouble, but to a team that is up against the cap (or has an in-season extension in mind for one of its pending free agents), it can free up quite a bit of needed 2013 dollars.

And, of course, once foot meets leather on Sunday Night, injuries start to happen that will continue to keep the personnel department busy and that roster in a constant state of flux.  It is the way the sport works.

But, now let's lock in that original 53 and the subsequent moves already made to look at how this thing shapes up here in 2013:

Final 53:


Quarterbacks (2):  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar

Tight Ends (5):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, Andre Smith, Dante Rosario

Wide Receivers (5): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley

Offensive Line (10)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, David Arkin, Darion Weems.

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen

Linebackers (5): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman

Cornerbacks (4): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb

Safety (6) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton, Jeff Heath

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur


From there, the following transactions have happened:

- Cowboys Place Nate Livings on Injured Reserve (roster to 52)
- Cowboys trade 6th in 2014 to KC for Edgar Jones, LB and 7th in 2014 (53)
- Cowboys trade Sean Lissemore to SD for 7th in 2014 (52)
- Cowboys claim Kyle Bosworth, LB from Giants (53)
- Cowboys trade Dante Rosario to Chicago for 7th in 2014 (roster sits at 52)

Also, they named their practice squad to open 2013:

- Alex Tanney, QB
- Jakar Hamilton, S
- Tim Benford, WR
- Danny Coale, WR
- Jason Vega, DE
- Micah Pellerin, S
- Cameron Lawrence, LB
- Ray Dominguez, G

They have room to add another body still - something likely to happen today - along the offensive or defensive lines.  But, we should give credit to the Cowboys for flipping bodies for picks.  In this cynical climate we live in regarding the Cowboys, we should never thumb our noses at acquiring picks.  They always have a chance to find something nice or to be used as future ammunition to move up in the draft for the right reasons.

As we break this thing down, I will draw your attention to a fun little info-graphic that the Cowboys website has made itself.  As we all know, 9 out of 10 astronauts endorse info-graphics as the learning tool of the future.

I think the moves over the weekend confirm some real issues with special teams that are being addressed.  Expect Bosworth and Jones to both step right in as special teams contributors and be on all kick and punt teams as early as Sunday Night.  Rosario was being kept for that it seems, but once they were offered something of substance by the Bears (and oddly, Joe DeCamilis' special teams), the Cowboys cashed in.

Quick thoughts on where the 53 sits - there are still major questions about how the offensive line will perform or even line up on Sunday.  It seems Ron Leary is ready to roll (or very close) and therefore, we might have Free returning to tackle, but it is tough to say.

However, the issues on this team remain up front.  If ever there was a feeling that they are one more injury away from disaster, I think you could use that with their Ratliff situation on the defensive line.  They have found some reasonable replacement ideas, but the quality is dropping quickly and any more bodies lost could cause the dam to break.  I was hoping one of their claims would be at defensive tackle, but they passed on Marvin Austin (waived by Giants) which tells us he must still not be healthy enough for Dallas to take a run at him.

Today is the player's off day as the coaches finally put the finishing touches on their game-plan.  Tomorrow, they welcome in the 53 (52) man roster and get to work with their first normal work-week of 2013.  They open with a divisional opponent that has beaten them 4 out of 4 trips to Arlington when the NY Giants come calling again.

There is no tip-toeing into this year.  The schedule advises the Cowboys to grab September - easily their easiest month in terms of first glance schedule evaluation - and build a strong record early for the first time in a while.

Since moving to the new Cowboys Stadium, they have started their seasons by allowing the rabbits to run away and hide:

2009: 2-2
2010: 1-3
2011: 2-2
2012: 2-2

If you follow the NFC East, you know that the Giants always seem to start 6-2 or so, so building a nice deficit is a habit that needs to be overcome.  And playing the Giants at home, at Kansas City, the Rams at home, and at the Chargers says that 3-1 in September should be reasonable plan.

And now, we get ready for the start.  Just 5 more days.

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Roster to 53 - Final Version

Every year I try this on the morning after the final preseason game.  It is my best attempt at locking down the Cowboys final 53-man roster.  We must be clear, here.  This is not my pick for the 53, but rather my attempt to figure out who they select as their 53.  There is a distinction that would affect a few players who I would not put on this team, but they disagree - and obviously, their opinion matters quite a bit more than mine.

Keep in mind, this requires an impossible task - crawling inside the head of the decision makers at Valley Ranch.  It also requires us to understand the cap rules that may serve as a tie-breaker as it pertains to such things as full salary eligibility if you are on the roster in Week 1, practice squad eligibility, and veteran minimums.  On top of all of that is the looming idea that there is significant dead money that could actually make the cap situation worse if they were to cut someone like Nate Livings (his number would grow from $2.4m to around $4.5 if you cut him).

Then, you need to detach your evaluations and consider how the Cowboys see a guy.  Which guy might be claimed if we cut him versus which guy might be able to slide through to our practice squad?  Which guy needs more developmental time because he can't help us now, but we don't want to throw him back in the ocean and let someone else catch him.

There are plenty of questions for every team, and our job gets tougher because we have to figure out what exactly Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones are thinking during this process, too.  That requires a skill that we may not possess.

Anyway, all of these projections should be discussed with 2 major things in mind.  1) I don't think this is difficult enough.  What that means is when you cut from 90 to 75 and then to 53, you hope that sooner or later you arrive at the conclusion that you have "too many NFL caliber players" and you can't keep them all.  You then wrestle at your final cuts, knowing that someone is going to snap up your leavings.  Unfortunately, because of a number of circumstances that have put the Cowboys in a dangerously shallow part of the depth pool, cutting to 53 is not hard.  It is also one that doesn't seem to risk too many of your cast-offs going to other teams as a gem that was not properly identified.

And that leads us to 2) this 53 man that they get to on Saturday will not be the 53 man on Wednesday when they all start the practice week for the Giants.  Because of the shallow depth and because of the needs on this team and the ease of the cuts, I fully expect the Cowboys to be looking carefully at several potential upgrades on their roster.  Offensive and defensive lines, in particular, with linebacker and safety also candidates for fresh bodies over the weekend via the waiver wire.  Some teams won't be shopping much.  I expect Dallas to be pretty active in making sure they are fortified, knowing that another team's 55th best player may be better than your 52nd best player.  You must fix that as soon as possible.

Now, using the chart that we printed for you on Wednesday, let's go through the positions and build this 53:

Quarterbacks (2): This is pretty straight-forward.  Tony Romo and Kyle Orton make the team.  I would like to see if Alex Tanney can be my practice squad QB, but I cannot carry 3 QBs at this point.  I do want to make the point, though, that he does seem to possess some interesting skills that are worth working with if you can get him to the PS.

Running Backs (4):  DeMarco Murray, Phillip Tanner, Joseph Randle were all automatics.  I think Lance Dunbar makes my team as well as a weapon that needs to be used quite a bit for his elusiveness. I am pretty sure I will need special teams out of everyone, but Murray.  But, I do like this group and will keep all 4.

Tight Ends (4):  Jason Witten, James Hanna, Gavin Escobar, and Dante Rosario.  I was wrestling with Andre Smith against Rosario, but the special teams coach Rich Bissacia has a relationship of familiarity with Rosario and vouches for him on teams.  That is vital, because usually, 7-year vets don't play special teams as hard as 2-year vets.  Rosario looks to be on all those special teams and can catch the ball a bit, so he makes the team out of camp.

Wide Receivers (6): Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, Terrence Williams, Dwayne Harris, Cole Beasley, and Anthony Armstrong all make it.  I am not crazy about Beasley taking a roster spot if I don't want to do much with him, so his ability to be active each week is certainly not a given.  But, the Cowboys do like him and he does show something when they call his number.  I just wish he could return like Harris and you could combine the two players.  Armstrong is another special teams only guy, and so you can see here how the Cowboys could get by with 5.

Offensive Line (9)  :  Tyron Smith, Doug Free, Jermey Parnell, Nate Livings, Mackenzy Bernadeau, Ron Leary, Travis Frederick, Phil Costa, and Darion Weems.  As you likely know, I am not crazy about this group at all.  I think that they have to get to a point where they have reserves who are potential starters someday, and right now, they have no backups who are really pushing to ever be starters.  Costa and David Arkin are/were fringe roster guys and this is why the waiver wire might allow me to finally cut ties with one of them.  Weems has limited quality, but if Free is now a guard, then you need a 3rd tackle, but you can finally move on from Arkin.  Also, because of Livings' contract, he gets a spot but can't likely help you for a while.  Basically, you have a mess here that might be slightly better or slightly worse on the mess from 2012 and the mess from 2011.

So that is 25 for the offense.

Now, the defense:

Defensive Line (9):  DeMarcus Ware, Anthony Spencer, Jason Hatcher, Nick Hayden, George Selvie, Ben Bass, Sean Lissemore, Kyle Wilbur, Landon Cohen are my group.  I think inside, they can actually build a pretty salty rotation here when Ratliff comes back to give them anything.  I really have hopes for Bass, and Cohen is the type of guy you should try on run downs to eat that 1-technique double team.  Where this team gets edge pressure is a little iffy, but maybe Selvie and Wilbur can be ok as reserves for now.

Linebackers (6): Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, Justin Durant, Ernie Sims, DeVonte Holloman, Brandon McGee, I guess.  There are literally no NFL linebackers in camp after the starters and Holloman.  Sims has had a tough go and should be on the fence, but since backup linebackers are your special teams guys, I think I need to keep McGee or Thaddeus Gibson (purely for special teams, because he is pretty much a defensive end) until the Waiver Wire yield.  This is really, really thin.  I don't mind McGee, but if they keep him, it is purely until the wire gives them something and put him on the practice squad.

Cornerbacks (5): Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne, Orlando Scandrick, BW Webb, Sterling Moore makes up the best group on the team, potentially.  Can't imagine having a better group of 5 in a Dallas secondary.  Webb and Moore are both NFL players and cover you well in case of injury.

Safety (5) : Will Allen, Barry Church, Danny McCray, JJ Wilcox, Eric Frampton might be 1 too many. I keep McCray and Frampton for special teams help, but I might have to choose between the two and McCray does have a rather large number for just special teams at his level of play.  I don't feel good about this position right now at all, but Church and Wilcox might be ok there in a bit.  For now, Allen knows the defense and will stopgap until Wilcox can figure this out.

Specialty Players (3): Dan Bailey, Chris Jones, and LP Ladouceur - pretty simple, there.  A very good kicker, a solid punter, and a very good deep snapper.

There is my 53.

As you can see, not on the squad are David Arkin, Matt Johnson, Danny Coale, and Caleb McSurdy.  Perhaps cutting a 4th from 2011, and a 4th, 5th, an 7th from 2012 will change your perception of those drafts a bit, but this is about getting your best team for today - not trying to make people feel better about past drafts.  All are practice squad eligible, but they just haven't done anything to move the needle to verify the faith that was put in them on draft day to this point and they have all had multiple camps now.

Don't forget, I think this 53 is only good for a day, so don't celebrate too hard.  Then, on Sunday and Monday, I expect the Cowboys to keep sorting this roster - especially at LB, and OL/DL.

Last year, the Cowboys had a half-dozen disagreements with me, so let's see if I am any closer this year.

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Wednesday Quick Hits - Building That Roster

Here are a few related items that we must all fit on to a Wednesday or we won't get to everything this week.

#1 - Getting Down to 53

On Tuesday, the Cowboys made some procedural moves to help get down to 75 after these initial cuts:

WR Jared Green WR Eric Rodgers WR Anthony Amos QB Nick Stephens P Brett Maher OG Dennis Godfrey LB Deon Lacey TE Colin Cochart CB Brandon Underwood

Then, Tyrone Crawford and Ryan Cook went to the IR and the final move - one that we all saw coming but hoped against was Jay Ratliff being pushed to the PUP list, taking him out for 6 weeks.

Before we cover the Ratliff issue, here is something we do every August - it is cataloguing the final cut-downs of the Cowboys' roster for the last 6 seasons.  This should be useful because it does show us what the guys in this particular personnel war-room believe about building a roster.

Now, of course, we must factor in the scheme change and how moving from the 3-4 to the 4-3 will clearly and obviously reduce your need for linebackers and increase your need for defensive linemen.  So the number will still be likely 14, but now instead of 8 linebackers, they will need 6.  And we expect instead of 6-7 defensive linemen, they will keep 8 - and possibly 9 if the concern about Ratliff makes them hoard backups that might have to start.

Below is the list:

Position	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
QB	2	2	3	3	3	3
RB	5	4	4	5	4	4
TE	3	3	3	2	4	3
WR	6	5	5	5	5	6
OL	10	11	10	10	10	9
DL	6	6	6	7	7	7
LB	7	8	9	9	7	8
DB	11	11	9	9	9	10
ST	3	3	4	3	4	3
Total	53	53	53	53	53	53

2007: 26 Offense/24 Defense/3 Specialist
2008: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2009: 25 Offense/24 Defense/4 Specialist
2010: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist
2011: 26 Offense/23 Defense/4 Specialist
2012: 25 Offense/25 Defense/3 Specialist

Sources: Archer 2008 , Archer 2007 , MacMahon 2009, Archer 2010, and Watkins 2011.

Now you can grab the latest 75 man roster found here at the Cowboys website and begin your own chop down, being mindful of position groupings.

We will do the same after Thursday Night's game on the blog here for Friday.

It is time.

#2 - Ratliff and the Defensive Line

One of the issues with the partnership of Jerry and Stephen Jones is that they repeat the same mistakes over and over again.  It usually involves a veteran player with a healthy dose of optimism about how "things will work out."  Those who dig deep into his mind speculate that this can all be traced back to Jerry's days wildcatting, but I won't bore you with that rerun.

What this boils down to is that the Cowboys were switching schemes on their defensive line (Will Need More DL), while losing one of your promising young DL players to jail (Will Need More DL), and another of your key players - Ratliff - only played 6 games in 2012 and looks like he may not be in perfect health in 2013 (Will Need More DL).

And yet, despite knowing all of this, they told the media that they were fine back on draft weekend:

“We feel like defensive line is a position of strength for us,” Jones responded when asked about Floyd. “In our system, we would probably put a premium on a quick-twitch potential three-technique. We [graded] him as not that, but that he certainly may be capable of getting there. That’s a case where are switch from a 3-4, he was obviously a nose tackle that had a lot of promise there at nose tackle. He’s an outstanding football player. … Again, I think you got to put our decision-making with a real focus on doing something with the interior of our offensive line.”

Now, nobody would argue that the Offensive Line might have been in an a worse overall position.  In fact, I believe I made that exact point a number of times.  But, that doesn't mean that you take one center and call it a draft on both lines of scrimmage.  Having said this a dozen times for what seems like 5 years in a row, I know it must be a broken record by now, but why they had the advantageous position of 4 picks in the Top 80 and after taking Travis Frederick decided to go TE, WR, Safety is a very sore topic for me.

They knew that Josh Brent was gone.  They knew that Jay Ratliff has not played at an elite level since 2009.  They knew that they were asking a lot of Jason Hatcher to replicate Warren Sapp or John Randle in this scheme and that says nothing about asking Anthony Spencer to be a defensive end.   And yet, when it was time to find a defensive lineman in the draft or free agency, they waltzed right by like they were totally set.

I know, I know.  They have lots of other needs that also needed to be addressed.  I would never argue that point.

But on May 6 we talked about all of the realities - even before they lost Tyrone Crawford:

Is it as big a mess as the offensive line was?  Not really, unless you are concerned with what is around the next corner.  The offensive line is present tense, but the defensive line is more of a future tense issue.  However, what has killed the Cowboys?  Lack of depth to deal with an injury.  And if Ratliff pulls up lame in training camp, what is the plan?  Full-time Lissemore at the 1-tech?  It looks like it would have to be.

I have no issue with trading back to get 2 starters for pick #18 because actually that makes sound common sense.  The issue is then spending your top 3 picks and really your entire draft without doing anything to help this group at all.  I find that flirting with disaster and don't forget what we talked about last fall after the Offensive Line situation reared its head against Cleveland again:

It isn't coaching.  It isn't effort. 

It is, however, another indictment on the continuing failures of this current front office.  I am sure when the 2012 season ends, like the secondary last spring, we will hear how fixing the offensive line in 2013 is the top priority.  And they will use many of their resources to attempt to do just that.  But, why it takes years for them to see things that are obvious to those watching their games remains a mystery. 

Then, if it is fixed, the shell game of personnel fixes will move to another department of the squad that will be overdue for renovations, too.  These are the effects of too many mistakes over the years in the personnel department.  The holes out-number the plugs, and before long, you have issues that cannot be addressed because you are out of picks and cap space.

Once you leave the port each August for another season at sea, you cannot replenish your supplies until the season voyage is over.  Meanwhile, in the middle of it, you are stuck with whatever you took with you.  From week to week, as people complain about the coaching and the players, those who remain on the voyage do the best with what they have.  But, clearly, what they have is not good enough, and no amount of effort is going to fix the issues for the long-term.

In 2013, they will leave port with a defensive line that might work but the best case/worst case scenarios are wildly problematic if there is one false step this year.

So, who replaces Jay Ratliff?  Would you believe Nick Hayden?  Hayden is one of the cool stories of camp and a guy who when I was watching him play in July seemed like a candidate to really fight for one of those final spots.  That is all you can expect of a guy who is 27 years old and has kicked around a few organizations before finding his way here, right?.  He played 33 snaps of NFL football in 2011, which is 33 more than his 0 in 2012 when he was healthy after an ankle sprain and his phone never rang after training camp.

But now, after one predictable situation with Jay Ratliff is finally revealed, the Cowboys are seemingly planning on him lining up against the Giants in Week 1 to unveil the all new Monte Kiffin defense.

Nick Hayden and George Selvie are both solid finds in the scrap heap of vagabonds.  Selvie is 26 and this will be his 4th chance to catch on and appears to have promise.   And maybe I am too gun-shy about using retread defenders after last season where they are looking on couches to fill out Rob Ryan's lineup in November and find Brady Poppinga and Charlie Peprah.  Sometimes, these reclamation projects work, but when you have a chance to fix this with typical moves to fill holes (you know, the draft!) the Cowboys are telling us everything is fine.  Now, with 11 days to go, Selvie, Hayden, and undrafted 2nd year pro Ben Bass are all going to need to play rather substantial roles it would appear.

They are also going to hope that Anthony Spencer is ready with no camp, Sean Lissemore is ready with very little camp, and Jason Hatcher heals.

Optimism never works in the NFL.  But, it appears to be a key strategy again for the Jones war-room.

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